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November 03, 2014





It's only a matter of time before we see him cry.


Miss Marple

Jane, I am holding out for a full-scale melt-down on live national TV, perhaps during a post-election press conference.

I want him to tell everyone what he REALLY thinks on national TV, so that there can be no doubt about how he holds this country and her people in contempt.

That comment about Netenyahu came straight from the top, and as Ari Fleischer said, it reflects the thinking of the Oval Office.

Lets see all of it on national TV, once and for all. No one will be able to blame the GOP or speechwriters for what he says, and I want to see him diss blacks (whom I am pretty sure he holds in contempt, too).


Haven't we been thru this before?
Seems to me I was involved in another effort with hundreds of advisers. John Kerry was there for a few weeks too.


I love TM!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I love TM!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Looking out my window,spring will be a long time arriving.

Jeff Dobbs

Speaking of the timing of news related to the election........

Gmax - I am curious about your link from last thread:


The link is from the League of Conservation Voters. Hardly a "one-stop-shop for all your election polling needs".

Going to PPP's website this morning...


...the latest NC poll is the one I referenced, and the one from LCV is nowhere to be found (at least at the time of this writing).

I'm not questioning whether the one linked at LCV is real - but why is it there and not at PPP? How did you come about finding it at LCV?

I am genuinely interested - as it is easy to see why the poll isn't included in the RCP average, since it would appear PPP hasn't released it publicly yet.

Is PPP holding out? Did someone leak it before PPP wanted it out? Is this normal that the poll is available elsewhere before PPP publishes it?


Per radio this morning the moderate rebels in Syria* evaporated when an ISIS unit showed up. Will these Iraqis stick around until spring?

* Yeah, the guys Obama trained and armed to kick ISIS and Assad butt.

Jeff Dobbs

Partially answer my own question: this tweet was in PPP's feed.

PublicPolicyPolling retweeted
Jeff Gohringer @jgohringer · Oct 30
Our new @ppppolls #NCSen poll finds a close race, with Hagan leading Tillis by one point, 47% to 46%: http://bit.ly/1tGam81 #ncpol

So, I guess the LCV sponsors PPP polls or something? Here's Jeff Gohringer's twitter profile:

Jeff Gohringer
National press secretary for @LCVoters & former spokesman for @SenJohnsonSD.

Gohringer's feed shows a number of PPP poll results uploaded to LCV.org

Weird. Whatever. Spent too much time on this already. NC poll was good for Tillis - so it stays buried on lcv . . . and not reported on PPP, thus not picked up places like RCP.

jimmyk on iPad

Right on cue, a "professor" writing in the NYT advocates canceling the midterms. Ok, not these midterms, but all midterms. Why? Because we don't give presidents enough of a chance to implement all their whiz-bang ideas. Now why didn't Madison, Hamilton, and Jay think of that?



Captain Hate

I really want to like Kevin Williamson for the beatdown he gives scuzzbucket Barbie. But he can't resist satisfying his GOPe masters by taking a pointed shot at Christine O'Donnell. The RINOs are just as committed to destroying conservatism as the donks.






what a great idea ... /eye roll

Captain Hate

Is anybody surprised that prof, and his idiot student, are from Duke? MarkO must feel so proud. Perfect reflection on what Brodhead has brought to the university imo.

Beasts of England

Arab Spring, FTW!



shoulda put "a go to hell duke!" in there. disappointed that Williamson felt the need, like a fanatic really, to take a shot at O'Donnell.

James D.

CH, I'll second you 8:09. There's absolutely no reason to bring O'Donnell into that article.

I mean, we get it. She was not the best candidate ever, but it was a completely unnecessary swipe at someone who didn't at all deserve it.


I'm sick of that too, Captain.
Any article that bashes O'Donnell or Akin is an automatic turn off for me.

I bet most never listened to the entire Akin interview
...& whatever happened with the crimes surrounding O'Donnell?


FWIW, heard on the radio that Milwaukee early voting was higher than 2010 and the recall (2012). Assume it was lower than the Presidential (2012). Rumors floating around that the Mexican consulate on wheels is doing GOTV for their citizens (a bold move if true, but the consulate is in Chicago). Can't wait for Wednesday when the biggest issue will be how brain addled Shrillary is after the strokes or whatever.

James D.

From the Politico piece linked on the last thread, this is why I have no hope whatsoever, even if the R's do take the Senate, and everything goes our way tomorrow:

“He appears tired,” says Sen. Bob Corker, a Tennessee Republican and one of the few in his party who sees himself as a potential dealmaker in a GOP-controlled Senate. “It is almost as if he is wishing for a six-year term instead of an eight-year term,” added Corker, who would ascend to the chairmanship of the Foreign Relations Committee if Republicans win the chamber. “But if he can get motivated and reenergized, I think this is a tremendous opportunity for the country.”



No update that I have seen. The IRS used the "messy desk" excuse and it seems to have worked.

Here was the last update:


seems pretty clear that her tax information was illegally accessed and released by state and federal employees; that the lien was illegally attached; and that the string of audits was politically motivated.

guess I'm fanatical on this issue.


guess I'm fanatical on this issue.

That's a good thing.
Certain stories are just too much to let slide.
The March 20th Kill the Bill rally lie & Sandy Berger are 2 of mine.


“But if he can get motivated and reenergized, I think this is a tremendous opportunity for the country.”


When I translate that from Turtlespeak, it comes out “But if he can get motivated and reenergizedever learn to chew gum while walking, I think this is a tremendous opportunity for the country.”

Watching what the Turtles do is going to be much more informative than listening to anything they say.


On the TV show Angel, in the last season, the Devil's law firm, Wolfram and Hart, represented a ruthless blonde aspiring politician, who turned out to be a demon, in human form, that is Wendy Davis,

Christine O'Donnell dabbled in witchcraft in high school, but she became an evangelical, that was her unforgivable offense, also being lower middle class, and deigning to defy the sacred cows of the kultursmog,

Captain Hate on the iPhone

henry, the recent clips of Rodham have looked really bad.


Bob Corker, he was one of the biggest promoters of our Syrian friends, the Harakat Hazm, the ones who did a great impression of a banana split, this weekend,


Hit I silently said last evening, "Please don't get me started on RCP" and polling in general, and slinked off.

But now you jabbed the gorilla in the cage, and left the door unlatched.

RCP average of polling is an abomination. They aggregate up all sorts of polling, some of it by pollsters with known defects and others that are merely RV polls or sometimes like the YouGov polls that ask the same set of voters over and over, OK who you voting for now?

But even worse, they pick and choose who they decide to include. For example Civitas has done a bunch of polling that to my eye looks carefully crafted and executed, yet they did not include their polling. RCP has said in the past, they would not include partisan polling, yet PPP(D) is in their polling. WTF?

And in one of the few credits I will give to Nate Silver, Nate has recognized and shined the light on the polling practices of a lot of pollsters. It was needed. Go to 528 sometime, and search for Gold Standard polling, and see what Silver said are the requirements for quality polls and who he thinks generally met the gold standard in the past. Suffice to say all polling is not created equal.

PPP got the League of Conservation Voters ( some Greenie org ) to pay for their most recent poll. I am sure their client kinda wanted a different result, but Tommy is smart about his partisanship, he does not want his rep in tatters, so this close to the election he knows someone will say the actual results were way different from your last poll, so he does try to get that one right, and stops with the partisan rhetoric or at least tamps it down, too.

Why does RCP do what they do? Well they are from Chicago and were big Zero supporters in 08. Not sure today how much they love the unlovable, but if you cant see clearly in recent history, you probably make lots of questionable decisions going forward as well.

I could rant and rant on this subject, but will be merciful and stop. Is any of that helpful?


Christine O'Donnell dabbled in witchcraft in high school

And let's not forget, Romney cut someone's hair in high school.

Meanwhile, Kennedys kill and rape and become national heroes.


Broadhead. Ptooey©


O'Donnell and Akin won competitive primaries. Wendy Davis walked into the nomination in her pink sneakers because Texas Dems didn't have anyone better who was willing to run, and Davis was fixing to lose her state Senate seat.

Now she is going to get rolled by the guy in the wheelchair and I'm going to enjoy every minute of it.

Jack is Back!

Repost from last thread.

More "subtle" racism from the left: What's With the Surge in Jazz Bashing? Indeed.


Started off with a supposedly satire piece in the New Yorker and spread like wildfire.


Why does RCP do what they do? Well they are from Chicago and were big Zero supporters in 08.

Really? I'd always thought of Bevan and RCP as right-leaning, and that's the CW, for what it's worth. (Of course anything that isn't hard left is considered "right wing" by Media Matters types.) Maybe they've shifted, or their polling people are less careful or something?

Jeff Dobbs

Thanks for your comments Gmax. I was going to say/ask essentially what jimmyk wrote.


Speaking of spreading like wildfire, apparently someone at some lefty site mistranslated Bibi's reference to "lawn ceremonies" in Hebrew as "grassy knolls" and accused him of threatening to assassinate Obama, and it spread like wildfire among the fertile imaginations of the anti-Israel left.



To try to answer my own question, it seems that right-leaning media people are sensitive to criticism and go out of their way to be 'fair and balanced,' with mixed results (see Fox News, the WSJ). Of course MSNBC and their ilk have no shame whatsoever.

Captain Hate on the iPad

JiB, I have to admit that some of jazz's biggest cheerleaders make me want to throw up. There's a reason it has a niche appeal and efforts to deny that are futile. I put clips of what I like here and on Facebook knowing not everybody will like it; which is ok with me because there's no way I'd bad mouth anybody's taste based on that.


"I am holding out for a full-scale melt-down on live national TV, perhaps during a post-election press conference."

I think the only way Obama melts down is by lashing out - and I think he will do it by government power, audits, wiretaps, stuff like that.

My final prediction is that we will win all senate races except NC and Kansas.

Beasts of England

I read the NYT piece on the midterms and have to ask: is that what's considered scholarship these days? And why did the professor enlist one of his students for the article? Maybe it was the kid's paper...

On a brighter note, at least they noted that a constitutional amendment would be required and not just a pen and a phone. Well, not yet.


I agree that Obummer's 'meltdown' will be limited to being 'liberated' by losing everything and he'll teach America's bitter clingers a lesson in payback with massive amnesty and EPA carbon rules to kill Kentucky and W Va. Then like Sweden he'll recognize 'Palestine' at pre-1967 borders. NC is lost (I blame H&R) but I just assume Kansas comes around to one more Roberts term.

James D.

There was an NYT article (Insty linked to an Althouse link to it) over the weekend - an OpEd questioning whether men are necessary, and whether, since "there's enough frozen sperm to repopulate the world several times over," it's time to consider just phasing them out entirely.

The author is a professor of biology and criminal justice at the University of Idaho, and, based on the first name of "Eric," I assume he's a man.


2008 is ANCIENT history at this point and I am not going to spend time trying to back up my vivid memory of RCP back then. If anyone can post a Bevan editorial or otherwise show convincing evidence that Bevan was supporting McCain, I will gladly acknowledge my error. For now, he was caught up in the whole Change you can Believe In thing, like Peggy Nooner, and was supporting a local Chicago favorite son

RCP does not aggregate all polls, does exclude some polls at their whimsy, and include others than seem to violate their own stated bright lines. All that is fact. The motive might be subject to debate and enlightenment...


Jane, you think we'll win MI?


Over at Memo------m in the left column Sen Harkin (who has been reelected from Iowa several times despite his lies about his Vietnam service)


Continues the Democrat War on decent Americans:
Joni Ernst demonstrates every day that she will be a better senator than Harkins ever was and yet he feels the need to attack her.

I really don't understand why any Iowa voter would ever vote for a Democrat.


--Continues the Democrat War on decent Americans women:--

Get with the program, Pagar. :)

"Tom Harkin: Don't Be Fooled Because Joni Ernst Is “Really Attractive,” “Sounds Nice”"

I'm surprised he didn't say she was "clean and articulate" too.

Captain Hate

I don't understand why the GOP would allow Iowa to continue to be the first primary state.



I haven't even followed MI. So apparently not.


Another thing to keep in mind on polling, The "MoE" they report is proprietary special sauce and does not represent the elegant proof that yields half the width of the confidence interval. They should call it "SS".

Another issue, I'm not sure how they handle it and I don't really care but three days out when they do final polling a significant population has already voted.

Jeff Dobbs

NC is lost (I blame H&R)

It's not lost - that PPP poll would indeed be very good news for Tillis -- 20% of DEMs vote Tillis -- 13% of REPs vote Hagan; 48% of UNAs vote Tillis vs 35% for Hagan.

If that's the case - and those numbers are true for early voting, then Hagan's lead is ~36K votes (versus the DEM party lead of 182K).

Tillis would have to get ~2% more votes than Hagan tomorrow, which he should be able to do.

Now, I don't think the on-the-ground reality is as peachy as those PPP splits - and it's a big outlier compared to others in that respect - but hey, there's at least something to keep us in the ballgame, and that's all I want at this point.

Go team go.


--Iraqi security forces, backed by American-led air power and hundreds of advisers, are planning to mount a major spring offensive against Islamic State fighters...--

Yeah and German High Command was planning to mount a major spring offensive in '43, but certain intervening incidents proved inconvenient.

Perhaps they can call it Operation Springtime for Hitler.


Is it just me, or doesn't it seem a bit odd to be announcing a spring offensive in the fall newspapers? I don't recall D-Day being publicized that way.


"13% of REPs vote Hagan;"

I don't understand how one could claim to be a Rep and vote for Hagen or any Democrat. IMO, If a voter believes in what is in the platform of the GOP, there is no way a voter could vote for Hagen or any other Democrat.

"Democrats Boo God - Vote Him Out of Platform Before They Put Him Back In


How can an American support removing God from a political party platform?


Joni Ernst replies to the leftist Harkin.


(A)Nuther Bub

2008 is ANCIENT history at this point and I am not going to spend time trying to back up my vivid memory of RCP back then.

Not too many are likely to share your vivid memory, GMax. Real Clear Politics' management had to fight MSM pundits' accusations it was trying to help McCain. Of course that's ridiculous too. Polling companies are running businesses, as is RCP, and their goal is to protect their reputation for accuracy and thereby assure their continued existence.

Steve Forbes owns a majority interest in RCP, as you know, and RCPs managers have a conservative bent, which is why they have to address accusations of advocacy. Pollsters make mistakes, to be sure, and have an increasingly difficult time because of shockingly low response rates, but I am firm in my conviction that intentional tampering is rare or nonexistent.

Skoot, when pollsters reach a household that's already voted they ask for candidate choice, just as they do with others -- except in the past tense.


I hear ya, Pagar. I agree with you.


Semi OT I'm reading Narciso's recommended book "Shadow Warriors" by Timmerman and its about the CIA's war on President Bush. Only seven years late but from what I've read so far it really provides insight on the antipathy of the State Dept towards Israel in general and the CIA's perfidy re the US in just about everything!

When I'm done it will be sent to the Red Neck Beauty Salon to be read at leisure.


Jane and Clarice--A win for Land (R and excellent secretary of state) in MI over Peters (D) is very unlikely. Her campaign has been lackluster, early negative ads took a toll with Peters ahead consistently in all polls. There have been some last-minute cash infusions but appear to be too little too late. It would be a delightful upset but chances for a victory are remote. Sad for me to report as a lifelong Michigander but looks like the seat being vacated by Carl Levin will stay in Dem hands. On the bright side, Governor Snyder (R) seems poised for a big win.


Thanks Beester. I'm embarrassed I didn't know it was going on.


Peters cannot be worse than Carl Levin who was one the senators who undermined GW at every turn during his administration along with the other 'shadow warriors'.



"Phony Vietnam vet: Don’t be fooled by real GWOT vet"



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