Fun With Numbers At The Times

Dave Leonhardt of the Times is unconnected from reality, but he gets a column out of it:

How the G.O.P. Can Court the Working Class

I know what you are thinking (unless you work for the Times) - the Democrats have a serious problem with the bitter-clingers of the white working class, so where is Leonhardt going with this?

A defining feature of Republican economic policy for decades has been its benefits for the well off. The stated goals of that policy have been to shrink government and lift economic growth, but the main method has been cutting taxes much more for high-income families than others. At the same time, the party has opposed an expansion of health insurance for low- and middle-income families, increases in the minimum wage and college financial aid and extensions of jobless benefits.

The country’s voting patterns largely reflect these stances, despite all the talk about the conservative white working class or affluent liberal elites. Democrats handily won voters with family incomes below $50,000 in this year’s midterm elections, and Republicans handily won those with incomes above $100,000. The same has been true in nearly every national election for the last two decades.

Oh, please. Blacks and our friends from south of the border are disproportionately found in the lower income groups. What Leonhardt is viewing as an economic bloc may actually be a racial bloc.

Here is some exit poll data from 2012, with Obama on the ticket:

Democrats strategists viewed those numbers as deeply problematic, and they didn't improve in 2014, if college/non-college is accepted as a marker for working class:

White non-college grads were 36% of the electorate, just as in 2012, but this time they went for Republicans by 64-34, up from 61-36. And this is the group the Republicans need to woo?

So maybe Leonhardt is going to talk up ways for Republicans to boost their appeal to blacks, Hispanics or Asiana? Hardly:

A new Republican economic approach could still revolve around cutting taxes, but the cuts would no longer be focused on the affluent. “I would expect to see a marriage of sorts between shrinking government and helping the middle class,” said Michael R. Strain of the American Enterprise Institute. Specifically, several conservatives, including Conn Carroll ofTownhall.com and Timothy P. Carney of The Washington Examiner, have called for a cut in the payroll tax, which helps pay for Medicare and Social Security. Though it receives less attention, 63 percent of taxpayers pay more in payroll taxes than income taxes.

Policies aside, there is no question that the Republican candidates in 2016 will claim to be allies of the middle class. Mark Hemingway, of The Weekly Standard, wrote last week on Twitter that he worried about nominating Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney, because neither would easily be able “to run *hard* against Hillary the elitist.” Republicans with more of a middle-class image include Mr. Rubio and three Midwestern governors: John Kasich of Ohio, Mike Pence of Indiana and Scott Walker of Wisconsin.

Weird. One wonders whether the Times ought to pay up a bit and get their reporters access to the exit poll crosstabs, which would definitively answer whether there is a black/white divide among the voters earning less than $50,000 per year. Using the college/high school marker, there seems to be a race-based division, a problem Dems have struggled with for years.

Comments

[MarkO]

Wahoo. First. Yea.

[henry]

NYT misses a bit of history -- W took a bunch of those people off the tax roles.

[Jeff Dobbs]

TCFAS!

[Iggy]

--How the G.O.P. Can Court the Working Class--

I'm more interested in how the GOP can work the courting class.

[Beasts of England]

JustOneMinute: now with tabulated data. Highlighted, too!

[clarice]

I was sure there was a promise there'd be no math here. *sigh*

[Jack is Back!]

Does anyone believe that the majority of the Times subscribers are "white working class" versus "elite college educated making $100K/p.a."? And I am still searching for their bi-lingual edition now that Carlos Slim is a major benefactor.

[Jack is Back!]

Fun exercise: How Conservative/Liberal is Your Name?/CrowdPac

https://www.crowdpac.com/how-liberal-conservative-is-your-name?name=John

[RickB]

C'mon, TM. The minorities 80% "bloc" is composed of a real 90% black bloc and Hispanics raising the question ¿a dónde se fueron todos? as Hispanic support for the Fascists drops to 62%.

80% is True only if by true Table 1 means False. Hispanics aren't doing any better for Dems today than is the Irish bloc.

[GMax]

A problem the Democrats have struggled with for years, and one for which Zero has accelerated to warp speed. Look no further than Iowa, where the minority population is quite low. Senator Ernst is about to get real comfortable in the Tom Harkin chair. That did not come about with +100K or more voters. The Times should really get out more...

[boatbuilder]

"...cutting taxes much more for high-income families than for others"

Because those high-income families are paying most of the taxes to begin with?

[Captain Hate]

Telling Wall Street and the Chamber of Commerce to take a hike works for me. That's not what they're saying, is it?

[GMax]

Would it be too much to expect the NYT to read, say the NYT? Cuz I see this stated matter of factly by one Nate Cohn on November 14th :

What we can say is that Democratic candidates like Kay Hagan, Bruce Braley, Michelle Nunn and Mark Udall lost because they failed to win the support of enough white, older, rural and working-class voters ( bolding added by moi, simply to emphasize the obvious that the data is already inhouse at the NYT...

[Old Lurker]

Skins down 10-0 to a team which is 1-8?

[GMax]

What I can say in listenly to nearly all Democrat Party mouthpieces, is that all seem to assume a very static electorate. Does it not occur to them, that if say, without Zero on the ballot that black turnout might well revert more to the historical norm?

And in what should be keeping Democrat strategists up at night, is what Celinda Lake was bleating about with Millenials in the last days before the 2014 election.

If Nate Cohn is correct and the Democrats ground game was effective( Its Cohn so who the hell knows), and they still got their heads handed to them, we can conclude that the Republican ground game was better and the voter level of disgust with Democrats was at toxic levels. That level of disgust rarely dissipates before a change in direction marked by a change in the party in control of the executive.

[GUS]

GMAX, "COMPREHENSIVE IMMIGRATION REFORM" ...libtard style, is their solution to that STATIC electorate.

[Captain Hate]

If Nate Cohn is correct and the Democrats ground game was effective( Its Cohn so who the hell knows), and they still got their heads handed to them, we can conclude that the Republican ground game was better and the voter level of disgust with Democrats was at toxic levels.

I think the disgust level is so high that the GOP ground game doesn't even have to be functioning well. That's why it's so important for Congress to not get stuck in the "we want them to work together" trap which will only depress people into thinking "both sides are the same".

[Captain Hate]

Browns are really stinking up the joint today. Or maybe Houston is playing very well.

[RickB]

GMax,

The overall damage BOzo has done to the Democrat Party is so severe Celinda Lake could not bring herself to sign off on the October Battleground Poll.

The NYT can claim the Obamic has just stopped to top off on ice but it's going to take a raft of polisci grubers to gin up numbers even credulous and gullible NYT subscribers won't laugh at.

[henry]

CH, they have nothing on the Suck Bowl at Soldier Field. I am glad the wind is from the West so the two team stink won't reach here.

[Buckeye]

Zero delights in continuously finding ways to screw working class Americans (who are predominately white) into subsidizing the lives of non-working Americans (a diverse group, but one that is growingly made up of working age non-whites).

Right before the 2008 election I remember saying that the bad news for Republicans was that McCain was going to lose, but the bad news for Democrats was that Obama was going to win.

As Zero pushes his policies more and more of the "bad news for Democrat" chickens are coming home to roost.

[GMax]

Pre mortem from Politico ( remember always Democrats for Democrats) titled Does Landrieu have a prayer? Answered quickly with this devastating note:

with just three weeks until the election, Democratic operatives in both Louisiana and Washington say privately that so much would have to go right for Landrieu – and so much wrong for her Republican opponent – that it’s almost impossible to imagine yet another Houdini-like survival.

In the same article they indicate that Mary Mary Quite Contrary managed a whopping 18% of the white vote in jungle primary on Nov 4th.

So riddle me this NYT? Would you like your 80% of minorities, if you could keep it? Or would you rather have 82% of the majority? ( lets see a higher percentage of the majority or a smaller percentage of the minority? Is this a trick question? I thought there would be no math in this capstone lecture...)

[Captain Hate]

Yes henry, the entire NFL early schedule seems to be a humongous turdfest as if it's a reflection of the commissioner.

[Iggy]

Has anyone done a study to determine if autocorrect results in a net loss or gain of typos?

[henry]

Sounds like a good class action lawsuit in the making Iggy.

[Captain Hate]

JJ Watt is a tremendous player and already, in a young career, a HOF lock; but he has committed two roughing the kicker penalties. He has also caught the only TD pass of the game.

Make that one of the only two TD passes as Hoyer took advantage of the penalty to toss one to Hawkins.

[Buckeye]

Autocorrect results in a net gain of embarrassing and inappropriate words. At least for me.

[cindyk on IPad]

Clarice: I knew the quote was TM's...I just love how you incorporate all this great knowledge and wisdom of the JOMers (exceceptions include Ben/Dana, DD, etc.)in your Pieces!,

[Steve]

Saturday Night Live: President Obama and Mitch McConnell Bourbon Summit

http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2014/11/saturday-night-live-president-obama-and.html

[narciso]

when a decent oligarch runs a paper:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/war-with-isis-islamic-militants-have-army-of-200000-claims-kurdish-leader-9863418.html

if IS is aspiring to state status, wouldn't that make sense,

[Danube on iPad]

Very enjoyable, Clarice. Except of course that it makes one seethe.

Has Baghdad Bob Dioone been heard from since the election?

[Captain Hate]

Nothing ever shuts that clown up, DoT

http://lacrossetribune.com/news/opinion/e-j-dionne-jr-will-scaliacare-be-the-law-of/article_fb902c51-687b-5da6-9178-49eccb355fd7.html

[clarice]

Yes, someone slattered him mightily yesterday--I think Instapundit linked to it DoT.
Cindy, I only steal from the best every week.

[Old Lurker]

Skins now down 20-7

[clarice]

BTW here is the amici brief in Sibelius in which Gruber was a party and which quotes him. Perhaps someone would be interested in going thru it for gems:http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/documents/economics_scholars_king_amicus.pdf

Taranto, as I note shows where he in effect quotes himself.

[maryrose]

DOT:
Mother goes home and takes the kids with her and then returns in a LEGAL and Proper way to get in the back of the line for a possible chance at true citizenship down the road. Just think -when her kids are older they will qualify for financial aid and have a better life.
When people enter illegally-they realize the risk they have taken. Not holding them accountable for their ILLEGAL action only enables them. Obama wants to reward thie ILLEGALITY. That dog won't hunt with the majority of the American people-a fact he will soon find out.
The mother in this case gets a do-over by returning home.

[maryrose]

I think the reason people don;t like the return home process is that they are afraid they will not be able to get back in. Facts have shown felons find their way back in quite easily.

[narciso]

that wasn't the question, chubby:

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/11/democrat-senator-we-all-knew-obama-was-lying-about-obamacare-video/

[maryrose]

Sibelius won't answer questions about gruber-nuff said.
How are the Browns doing she asks fearfully?

[Captain Hate]

Oh Slinging Ryan Mallet is having a successful initial start against the Browns.

[henry]

To gruber is now grubering in SkyDragon debates. (Note: autospell insists on gruber inn, which is a good name for a Federal Facility to be built in Alaska for storing grubers).

[narciso]

So if as the Daily Mail put it, Jihad John, was wounded, who executed Kassig?

[Beasts of England]

Gruber Inn! lol, henry!! But why would you want to do that to daddy? ;)

[narciso]

F Chuck, earns his name:

http://therightscoop.com/chuck-todds-tosses-softball-questions-on-gruber-at-hhs-secretary-with-all-the-force-of-a-7-year-old/

[henry]

Beasts, I was thinking about increasing the food supply for polar bears / drawing said bears away from daddy's garage and dogs.

[Beasts of England]

The sCamster has engineered a quick comeback....

[Jack is Back!]

OL,

Just got back from some errands and see where the Skins are stinking up the joint. I blame Bush.

The defense sucks big time.

[narciso]

with apologies to Don Henley:

welcome to the Hotel Gruber,

[Jack is Back!]

Peyton Manning in his human mode: 2 INTS, losing to the Rams in late 4Q.

[narciso]

they might try RedCoats, Red Shirts, in the utterly disposable category,

[rich@gmu]

nice pieces this morning Clarice.

[rich@gmu]

Denver stinking up the joint ...

[Stephanie]

Speaking of stinking up the joint, the lady sitting two seats from me is complaining that the dude sitting behind her keeps farting and she has gone full Ebola protection mode. Only at the airport!

[Another Bob]

Captain Hate | November 16, 2014 at 03:06 PM:

LaCrosse Tribune??

You are unlikely to encounter a leftier rag outside Venezuela.

[Captain Hate]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ddweGJjwNc

[maryrose]

Steph:
You lead such an interesting life!
Please provide many details of the JOM meet-up. I so wish I could attend.Everyone have a wonderful time!

[Beasts of England]

They need some 'No Farting' neon signs at Hartsfield Int'l. like they have at Dreamland Bar-B-Que, Steph!!

[Captain Hate]

Welp Miles Austin is showing why the Cowgirls dropped him.

[henry]

James D should slowly walk away from the TV. Put the emotion into the next book.

[daddy]

Good Morning.

Just awoke up about 20 minutes ago and I see the Manning Brothers have had a rough day--ouch. Caught the last 5 minutes or so of each, and saw some really punishing hits.

That Terry Bradshaw sure is a handsome guy ain't he.

[Jane]

I wish I woke up 20 minutes ago, I'm one tired chick - but home.

Did you guys hear that VDH's daughter died. She had a seizure right before the cruise, so he cancelled and she died on Tuesday. I think she was 26. It was very sad.

[glasater]

Good game between Seattle and Kansas City.

[Extraneus]

A defining feature of Republican economic policy for decades has been its benefits for the well off. The stated goals of that policy have been to shrink government and lift economic growth, but the main method has been cutting taxes much more for high-income families than others.

W took a bunch of those people off the tax roles.

and

Because those high-income families are paying most of the taxes to begin with?

I'm heartened that the Dems are unable to stop lying to themselves as they try to analyze the election results.

Next they'll navel-gaze about why the racist, bigot & homophobe vote is increasing.

[clarice]

There really are some cases where amnesty is justifiable. I had one once where someone adopted a Korean child abroad while stationed there as the wife of a US soldier . The child had no contacts in Korea , not even with her birth family. when the family returned to the US, they had to readopt her under US law but the adoption atty failed to file the papers in time . Under US law the adoption here had to be completed before the child was 18.I had to beg them to enter an order of deportation and then seek relief (which we got)..otherwise the kid was stateless, unable to attend college or work.

And then IIRC there's the lady who came here without her daughter under a perfectly lawful visa and her application for a green card was pending when one of those gangs started to hit on the girl. The mother could not go to El Salvador without losing her green card status but she went any way and brought her daughter back in, Finally, after years of trying, the INS finally waived the unauthorized return to El Salvador and the child's illegal entry.
But I think these are rather unusual cases which even under existing law came to a proper conclusion.

[clarice]

That's terrible news, Jane. I had not heard that. Glad you are home.

[glasater]

So very sad to learn about VDH's daughter. What a horrible thing to happen to a parent.

Prayers for the family.

[Beasts of England]

Green Bay's throw-backs aren't as kewl as the Iron City Killer Bees, but not bad. Surprised by the blue...

[Marlene]

Jane,how sad! Hope you had a great time on the cruise.

[Extraneus]

When asked directly if he or his administration had, as Gruber insisted, intentionally misled the public and oversight organizations like the Congressional Budget Office when they crafted the Accordable Care Act, Obama’s reply was terse and direct. “No,” he said. “I did not.”

Heh.

http://hotair.com/archives/2014/11/16/gruber-gate-gets-to-obama-no-i-did-not-mislead-americans/

[daddy]

Terrific Pieces, Clarice.

[Extraneus]

Anyway, since the CBO is so easy to game, I would expect the new congress to hold hearings on how to rectify that.

[Miss Marple]

Very sorry to hear about VDH's daughter. How tragic!

[Miss Marple]

Here in central Indiana it is snowing to beat the band. And sticking!

It is November 16!!

[henry]

Miss M, after a forecast of less than one inch, I shoveled 5 inches this morning. More snow tonight. I have fire, I have beer, and the Packers look good so far. Gun deer season stars next week, so snow is ok.

[Frau Steingehirn]

"...intentionally misled the public and oversight organizations like the Congressional Budget Office when they crafted the Accordable Care Act, Obama’s reply was terse and direct. “No,” he said. “I did not.”

Of course not! For that, BHO has all his grubers.

The CBO needs swift attention. Independent they are not.

[Captain Hate]

Anyway, since the CBO is so easy to game, I would expect the new congress to hold hearings on how to rectify that.

If you're talking about a static analysis, good luck with that. The CBO is entrusted with a false sense of accuracy and I don't see that ever changing. The best they could do is give a range of probable outcomes and they'd probably screw that up.

[Captain Hate]

Those Packers throwback jerseys look like poo. Dumb idea which means it will never change.

[Frau Steingehirn]

CH - since the outcome is faulty, why have the budget office at all?

[henry]

Gun girl shirts would be better.

[Captain Hate]

My thought exactly, Frau; but there will be plenty of wailing from geniuses like F Chuck that our political masters can't do something without some false sense of accuracy on what it will cost or save.

[Jack is Back!]

Those are real Packer throwbaks. I can't post it but I have a photo of the original Acme Packers jersey tucked inside those old "high hiip" fottball pants. Don't get me started on the Decatur Staley (Dah Bears) or the Canton Bulldog uniforms.

[Miss Marple]

henry,

You may not know that my divorced daughter lives with me and believes in climate change, even though I am a geologist who knows her stuff and remembers quite well the warnings about an ice age back in the 70's.

I pointed out to her the snow falling on November 16. I also told her that Lake Superior has only been ice-free for three months this year. She is an art major so of course she know what she is talking about. Hmph.

I am home for the evening. I will not go to evening mass in snow as I have a pin in my leg and a sincere fear of falling. This is sticking and getting worse.

[Beasts of England]

Dang, henry - a smart guy like you should have just shoveled the predicted snow. ;)

[daddy]

Here in central Indiana it is snowing to beat the band.

Miss Marple,

We launched last night at 2 AM local Alaska time. Temp at the airport was 22 degrees F at launch, but due to the warm residual winds from that Pacific Typhoon the week prior all our snow had melted. Had a really wonderful Aurora Borealis last night to the north, and we flew SouthEast along what looked like the edge of the shimmering green curtain for at least the first hour. A truly marvelous light show.

About 2-3 hours later the sun came up and for about 2000 miles all of southern Canada and northern America that I saw was covered in a blanket of beautiful white snow.

I wish I knew more of what to be looking for to detect a Polar Vortex. When we did see cloud cover, it was at low altitude, but very thick, and very reminiscent of the surface of a slow moving body of water, with easily visible undulations like small wave ripples, suspended in time or in very slow motion. Arriving in Memphis unfortunately was nothing but clouds and we couldn't see squat.

Was glad that we had so many excellent visual's last night, as that stuff helped us stay awake.

Packer's looking tough!

[Extraneus]

Seems to me the whole point of the gruber model was to game the CBO. It had nothing to do with any votes in congress, but the bill couldn't have gotten through as it did without CBO approval.

"If CBO scored the [individual] mandate as taxes, the bill dies."

When he talked about stupidity, he was referring to the CBO.

[daddy]

So which reporter is going to ask the President,

"Mr President, Which one of you is lying, you or gruber? You can't both be telling the truth. One of you has to be lying, so which one of you is lying? "

If it was George Bush as President they'd ask that question in a minute, and for the next 2 years straight.

[Miss Marple]

daddy,

You going to be in Indy soon? Would love to get together if time permits!

[Ben]

It's amazing to me how anyone could conflate global warming with 'climate change' as an indication that means it must get warmer. Science is AWOL on ignorant assumptions taken from popular culture.

[henry]

Miss M, I already slalomed the stairs last week (frost plus dress shoes = acrobatics). Be careful!

[Danube on iPad]

Thanks for the cite. I see Baghdad Bob is at his usual,objective best.

It's simple: Pelosi wrote it; Scalia will tell her what's in it.

[Ben]

"If it was George Bush as President they'd ask that question in a minute, and for the next 2 years straight."

It's better for you to just ignore the Brush-Popper. A fart in a crowded room would have more sympathy.

[clarice]

I remember repeatedly being told that the CBO reports were faulty at the time Obamacare was being considered. It was no secret that Congress was playing with the assumptions to bring it in under the wire and that CBO had to work with the assumptions they were given.

MM--Maybe your daughter can start a bonfire with Gore's books to melt the snow.

[daddy]

Will see you next week Miss Marple.

Haven't checked my schedule to pin down the day yet, but I'm in your town twice over the next 2 weeks from about 2 AM to the following 2 AM, so I'll get more particular in a day or so and set up coffee or brunch date if that works for you. I think we'll be in the Omni, but I'm flexible to take a cab or a rent-a=bike to meet you anywhere as long as I'm awake:)

In a minute I'm off to "The Happy Mexican" for afternoon and evening Football and Margaritas, and fat finger tapping into the iPad until I embarrass even myself:)

[Frau Steingehirn]

The Anchoress (via Insty) takes on the attack on Shirt Wearing Geeks:

"Funny thing, the people who are making so much noise and are so resolute about controlling everything people think, eat, do, wear…were raised by folks who kept saying this:

LUN

[Danube on iPad]

"The mother in this case gets a do-over by returning home."

How long does it take, and is a return certain? If it's just a matter if paperwork, why not let her do it here? As for the felons who have no trouble returning, bear in mind that they are committing a crime by doing so.

I would feel quite differently about this issue if the government had been vigorously seeking these people out and promptly deporting them when found, but they haven't.mthey've been deliberately looking the other way for a long, long time.

[Frau Steingehirn]

LUN correction

[Stephanie]

I have captured JOM bird one. About to depart the hotel for dinner. Will report as able.

JOM taxi service out.

[Thomas Collins]

Break up the 4-6 Falcons! Atlanta takes over the NFC South top perch (although the Saints are also 4-6, Atlanta currently owns the head to head tiebreaker with a week one win over New Orleans).

[Jack is Back!]

daddy is headed to Memphis. That's where the Happy Mexican is located. That must mean some domestic routes this time.

If you ever get to Florida let me know.

[Extraneus]

From the hotmail link:

When asked directly if he or his administration had, as Gruber insisted, intentionally misled the public and oversight organizations like the Congressional Budget Office when they crafted the Accordable Care Act, Obama’s reply was terse and direct. “No,” he said. “I did not.”

That was a Noah Rothman piece. No idea why he didn't call out this "depends what the meaning of 'is' is" slight of hand, but he's kind of a wimp.

And here's from the link to el presidente's comments:

The problems awaiting Obama in Washington include the possibility of a government shutdown when current funding expires Dec. 11. Conservative Republicans want to pass legislative provisions the president is sure to oppose, such as budget riders that would make it impossible for Obama to issue work permits as part of the executive actions on immigration he has promised to carry out.

Asked whether another shutdown could be in the offing, Obama noted that Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has appeared to rule it out.

“I take Mitch McConnell at his word when he says the government is not going to shut down,” Obama said, adding a blunt warning that such a move would direct voters’ ire at politicians of all stripes. “There’s no reason to shut down the government. We’ve traveled down that path before. It was bad for the country and bad for every elected official in Washington.”

The president did not say explicitly what he would do if faced with legislation that sought to block his planned actions on immigration, but he warned: “That’s not going to be productive.”

Has McConnell said that Obama wouldn't shut down the government?

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/barack-obama-health-care-112930.html#ixzz3JEy1pXIU