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January 23, 2015

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jimmyk on iPhone

I should add, even if a suit wouldn't be successful, smearing a private citizen like that ought to be political suicide for Gillibrand. But she's got a D after her name.

Captain Hate

I just cannot see the NFL disqualifying him frm the SB when so much money is on the line but then according to Obama "they have already made enough".

According to Tony Grossi, beat writer for the Browns reporting from Arizona, there will be nothing done before the Super Bowl. However the other owners are extremely upset at what an embarrassment this is to the league and have ordered Goodell to stop his kid glove treatment of the Patriots and drop the hammer for next season.

Thomas Collins

Re NK's and boatbuilder's comments: I'm willing to bet on three aspects of this:

-The refs checked the psi of the balls before the game, and they all came in at 12.5 or higher. As to the accuracy of the gauges and whether the gauges were the same as the ones used at halftime, I have no idea.

-No smoking gun will be found before or after the Super Bowl.

-If a smoking gun is found prior to the Super Bowl, Brady is going to be suspended for the Super Bowl.

Dave (in MA)

Kraft has donated large amounts of money to Democrats. Belichick told Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy several years ago that he was a democrat. Therefore we should apply the Instapundit rule and stop calling this Deflategate and use Deflatequiddick instead.

Captain Hate

Buckeye, maryrose lives in a western suburb of Cleveland and Ann lives outside the 71 beltway around Columbus, to the west iirc.

Porchlight

It must be easier for QBs to handle snaps - either under center or shotgun - with deflated balls than high-pressure ones, especially in colder weather.

The stats blog guy had a post on Wednesday about the Pats overperforming at home in wet/cold weather. As with the fumble prevention, it started getting noticeable in 2007.

NKvirusedand back

@5:36-- written in true Bond Counsel style, underr no circumstances could the issuer d be successfully sued, or in this case, lose the bet. I SALUTE YOU!!

Buckeye

CH You are in the Cleveland area also?

Captain Hate

In defense of Brady, a statement I'm probably employing for the first time, deflated pigskins or otherwise he doesn't screw up handoffs which are a major component of fumbles.

Captain Hate

Yes, Buckeye, I'm east of Cleveland.

Extraneus

Why just Brady? Is he in charge of the team's balls?

I think that if they did cheat, running backs and receivers gained as well. Kick returners, too. Belechick would know this.

Maybe he's more clever than other coaches, or nobody else had the ... uh ...

But it seems pretty obvious that all ball handlers would gain from having soft balls.

NKvirusedand back

If there is any evidence turned up that the ball deflation started coincidentally with those ball protection stats? BeliCheat will be the next Lance Armstrong. I assume those stats are just spurious, or correlate to good coaching not cheating, but if there is a strong correlation to the deflating, oh baby... the NFL... National FRAUD League

Thomas Collins

Porchlight, do those studies show the Patriots "net points in bad weather at home over normalized net points" exceeds that of, say, the Packers? And if we are going to focus on the integrity of the game, did the Seahawks build their stadium to accentuate crowd noise to disrupt the other teams' play calling on offense? I happen to think that'a a blow to the game's integrity (awaiting a drone strike from glasater or Jim Miller).

RickB

Psst - the 'hawks over inflated the ball used in the onside kick. They greased it too.

exdemocrat

Not sure I agree with Volokh's opinion that a reasonable person who saw Gillibrand's statement would not assume that she - as a sitting US Senator - wasn't privy to non-public information.
And a statement is defamatory if it defames as to any member of the public not as to all.
Could a potential employer be negatively influenced by a Senator having stated in public that the applicant "is a rapist"?

Porchlight

I think because QBs are usually the guys who get to choose the game balls prior to inspection, they are in closest communication with the equipment managers as to preference. I'm guessing everyone defers to Brady on this. Plus, if Brady likes softer balls, they all win, as Ext points out.

No way is Brady going to let some other guy(s) on the team decide how this is going to go.

TC, I'm not sure and I wish I could link the blog, but it's down. Here's a chart - let's see if it works:

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Brady-Home-Games-in-Rain.png"

Extraneus

If you look at the chart I posted, the data from all other teams seem to follow normal distribution around the best-fit linear regression. All except the Patriots.

Porchlight

Not working. Sorry...

Extraneus

(I hate the Patriots, btw.)

daddy

Watching FOX Business they just did a segment on how well Clint Eastwoods "American Sniper" is doing, and why. They highlighted how Matt Taibbi of Rolling Stone hated it, by quoting this paragraph from his review of the movie:

American Sniper is almost too dumb to criticize...Sniper is a movie whose politics are so ludicrous and idiotic that under normal circumstances it would be beneath criticism. The only thing that forces us to take it seriously is the extraordinary fact that an almost exactly similar worldview consumed the walnut-sized mind of the president who got us into the war in question.

It's the fact that the movie is popular, and actually makes sense to so many people, that's the problem.

On the flight home this morning my co-pilot, (Iraqi War Vet) mentioned how he had seen the film and thought it did such a great job of showing how the sniper closed himself off from his family as a result of his various deployments, and then figured out how to deal with his brand of sort of PTSD, and my co-pilot thought that was very valuable to himself. He saw it in Memphis on the opening weekend, and said the theater was jam packed and none said a word even during the credits.

He happens to be married to a Dutch girl who doesn't understand any of the US Military mindset, and he was taking her to see it, hoping it gave her a little bit of insight into what he had been through and dealt with.

FWIW, my co-pilot was black and a conservative, flew an excellent airplane, and I expect he'd like to hear Matt Taibbi say that to him in a crowded Bar room.

Some Guy

Psst - the 'hawks over inflated the ball used in the onside kick. They greased it too.

Actually, in all seriousness, kickers, like Qbs have different preferences for whether balls have been worked in, pressure, etc. Many kickers (or special teams coaches) like brand new balls, which have a wax coating from the factory and are kind of slippery out of the box.

Remember Tony Romo's fumble of the kicker's hold a few years back? You could see in the closeups it was a brand new ball.

Porchlight

Here's a section of the blog post about wet weather overperformance, TC. Please forgive the length. It does not look like he studied other teams' performances.

The Patriots went 14-1 (93%) in Tom Brady’s home games played in wet weather since 2007. Their only loss was to the San Francisco 49ers in 2012. For some comparison, the Patriots went 51-9 (85%) in home games played in dry weather during that same period. On average, in both wet and dry weather, the Patriots were favored by approximately 9 ppg. In the NFL, 9 point favorites should win the game approximately 81% of the time.

As you can see from the averages at the bottom, Tom Brady put up remarkably similar numbers in wet weather as he did in dry weather: 7.4 yds/att vs 7.6 yds/att, a 99 passer rtg vs 101 passer rtg, and a slightly better TD:INT ratio in wet weather as compared to dry weather.

The second table (below) looks more in depth at the results of those 15 wet weather home games since 2007 as compared to the Patriots performance in dry weather home games. The compared results are strikingly different:

The Patriots went 31-29 ATS (52%) in dry weather home games, but 10-5 ATS (67%) in wet weather home games. The oddsmakers on the games projected the Patriots would score an average of 28 ppg, whether the conditions were wet or dry. But the Patriots scored 35 ppg in wet weather (+7) vs 31 ppg in dry weather. They also held opponents to 5 ppg fewer in wet weather home games.

Thus, their average win improved from 30.7-19.6 to 34.6-14.3. In other words, they went from winning games by 11 points to winning by over 20 points on average, despite being favored by 9 ppg in both scenarios.

This analysis does not prove or disprove anything. It certainly may fuel the fire of conspiracy theorists, but without any concrete evidence that the Patriots were underinflating footballs for Tom Brady in wet weather, we can only look at the game results. While obviously suspicious, despite how strongly it appears “something” is helping the Patriots in wet weather, nothing can be proven by this study.

I always watched the Patriots and saw how they performed in wet weather. Anecdotally it seemed like they “got it”: they knew the pass rush was slower and while other teams shifted AWAY from the pass and to more ground based games in the wet weather, it seemed the Patriots shifted the opposite direction, and passed the ball more frequently. I always thought this was just “Bill Belichick and Tom Brady being smart and ahead of the game”. Perhaps that is still the case. Or perhaps they passed more because their offense played with underinflated footballs in wet weather while their opponent played with regulation footballs. Its total speculation. I am of the opinion that we will never know. This whole allegation could be a lot of hot air. I am not opining on what happened, whether other teams do it too, the level of advantage which is gained, etc. I am simply providing actual data on game results and letting you use the data in conjunction with news/media reports to form your own conclusions.

Jane

FWIW, my co-pilot was black and a conservative, flew an excellent airplane, and I expect he'd like to hear Matt Taibbi say that to him in a crowded Bar room.

Okay, but I want to be there too.

Extraneus

One thing that mitigates against the downside of disqualifying NE from the Super Bowl is that the Seahawks won last year, so it's not like some other team would be deprived of becoming the reigning champs for another year.

I wonder if all the contract attorneys were smart enough to add an out clause if the game wasn't played for reasons other than what's in the usual force majeure section.

daddy

Ha, Jane:)

Guess which President my F/O thought has a "Walnut Sized Brain?"

Hint---Not "W."

Dave (in MA)

Taibbi can GFH.

NKvirusedand back

daddy-- have you seen American Sniper?

You have the best job and get to work with great people.

Matt T-- let's look at his movie commentary shall we. Every review of AS I've read, even by libs, makes the point that the film is ambivalent about the politics of Iraqi Freedom, even showing Kyle's doubts about the value of Iraq. For Matt T to opine the opposite, is compelling proof of his arrogant and small minded agenda. Speaking of 'minds'; the human mind is a metaphysical concept that defies empirical measurement of any kind. So how can any human mind be 'walnut sized' or of a particular size of any physical measure. What a pretentious poseur jack off he is.

Extraneus

I still can't accept the fact that the instagram account with the pic of the sisters with pubes peeking out from under their bikinis was terminated when any similar pic of waxed babes wouldn't have caused anyone to bat an eye.

NSFW, I guess...

http://www.dailydot.com/lifestyle/instagram-pubic-hair-nsfw/

Thomas Collins

OK, thanks, Porchlight.

Extraneus, in the incredibly unlikely event that the Pats were disqualified, I'm sure the Colts would regroup on short notice and show up in Glendale.

Gee, NK, for a bond opinion type summary of my predictions, I thought I was going out on a limb! :-)

Threadkiller

Hit, I sent an email.

NKvirusedand back

ThomasC-- Heh, you're the best.

Captain Hate

Taibbi came up with the Flathead moniker; other than that he's completely useless.

anonamom

PD in Detroit, Stephanie---I read something recently about some people's migraines getting much better with treating mitochondrial energy deficiency---which is essentially Dr. Terry Wahl's TED video.

Reading PD's account of lessening of his with fish oil and antioxidants reminded me of it.

Also, lots of foods apparently cause sensitive people to release histamine, which can trigger migraines. Maybe why the anti-histamines are prescribed?? But better to avoid the trigger, no?

Threadkiller

Have Brady complete some sort of throwing challenge with a properly inflated ball.

Do it in a temp and rain controled structure where they put aircraft through the paces.

daddy

Haven't seen the movie NK.

I have just read a number of the comments over at the Rolling Stone, and it is heartening to see so many comments criticizing Taibbi and how many likes those comments are getting. Here's the link: Taibbi's Dumb Ass Review

883 comments and counting. Scroll down.

Captain Hate

Are you by chance the caller aka "John, from Ohio?"

No sir.

Some Guy

That is correct, as of now Ted Wells/NFL have yet to issue findings of fact. If any one here wants to wager even money that Ted Wells/NFL finds that Brady had NO KNOWLEDGE WHATSOEVER of ball deflation or ball manipulation of any kind, I'll make that bet. To be clear Wells/NFL has to affirmatively find that Brady had no knowledge, if their findings are 'inconclusive' you still lose the bet, because Brady unconditionally stated in his presser that he had no knowledge.


I hope nobody is silly enough to take that bet NK. You've put it in a 'heads I win, tails you lose' format.

No investigation like that is ever going to find people innocent or cleared. They'll only disclose specific guilt or culpability.

Captain Hate

And if we are going to focus on the integrity of the game, did the Seahawks build their stadium to accentuate crowd noise to disrupt the other teams' play calling on offense?

Don't get me started on their "12th man" crap. They're almost enough to get me to root for the Patriots.

daddy

Momma says she saw a big Lynx while driving up our hill today.

Lots of fresh snow out, 21 F, but Momma says it feels a lot colder than that today. I'm not in the dog house, but I am on dog walk duty for the next week.

Extraneus

State Department tried to enlist Disney characters in a bid to "educate" people about the Arctic.

No go.

“Admiral, you might not understand: Here at Disney it's in our culture to tell stories that project optimism and have happy endings.' "

Gee, I wonder what the Admiral wanted them to educate us about.

Extraneus


.

Ignatz

Good gravy Marie, at a minimum nine more days of nothing but the palpation of softened balls.

It's enough to make a guy teste.

Extraneus

Hundreds of protesters with 'Je suis Muslim' placards rally in Sydney over coverage of Islam

SYDNEY – Hundreds of Muslims have rallied in Sydney to protest negative media coverage of Islam and French magazine Charlie Hebdo's depictions of the Prophet Muhammad.

Police said 14 people were moved on from the rally on Friday night for breaching the peace. But no one was charged and the event was peaceful.

Some of the 800-strong demonstrators in the Muslim enclave of Lakemba in Sydney's west held placards with the slogan "Je suis Muslim," French for "I am Muslim."

Buckeye

Another bass player who has serious chops but is mostly overlooked is Brian Bromberg. Checkout "My Bass"

daddy

King Abdullah, welcome to the club:

King Abdullah “could not stand” President Obama.

DrK says that the Winner of the Week is the Pat's Tom Brady, because "he gets away with it."

His "Loser of the Week", is the United States, due to events in the Middle East.

exdemocrat

"Je suis un deranged and possibly dangerous loon who chooses to live in a civilized country while harboring views that are utterly anathema to that country's most foundational beliefs."

daddy

SYDNEY – Hundreds of Muslims have rallied in Sydney to protest negative media coverage of Islam

#I won't ride with you

exdemocrat

"Je suis un australian that is not being insane would prefer all 800 of you people deported, stat."

exdemocrat

#i'llpayforyour(oneway)ticket

jimmyk

King Abdullah “could not stand” President Obama.

He was no dope. He didn't like 404's stabbing Mubarak in the back.

I'll never forget the "WTF?" look on the King's face when Barry bowed down to him.

Ben

Abdullah loved the Bushies to the point of non-homophobic hand holding.

Can you picture anything sweeter? If only the wimmins could have the same status in Saudi Arabia.

Ben

It's nice to know daddy uses Taibbi as a touchstone to another reality.

I read contrary posts for similar reasons.

Jack is Back!

MM.

I love you so much I wanted you to sleep peacefully tonight:)

Stephen Hayes ‏@stephenfhayes 4m4 minutes ago
Of the rest of the field, I think Mike Pence most likely to emerge..

maryd

Jack, you're one devil!

Buckeye

Tantaros just said new info on soft balls coming in.

Jane

Mike Pence is the choice of the Koch brothers, so if he wants to emerge he certainly will.

Last night when Yemen fell and King Abdullah croaked, I had a flash that we would wake up and actually do something - in spite of Obama. But all we can talk about is ball-gate.

Easy to be depressed.

Buckeye

Ornery to the max, Jack.

Buckeye

Tantaros's got nothin.

Danube on iPad

Brady is well known (as were Larry Bird and Michael Jordan) to be world-class trash-talker, really putting it in their faces and an expert with the needle. Contrary to the Golden Boy image he is also fluent in both profanity and obscenity.

There is no way that Wells will ever be able to say definitively that Brady had no knowledge.

However "special" the equipment was, it got identical readings on all the balls (or eleven of them) two hours before game time and then again at halftime, and the readings differed significantly.

Precisely because players and coaches move around so much, if Brady has been doing this for a while he has probably kept it between himself and the equipment guy.

I know innumerable USC grads and fans, and every single one of them thinks Pete Carroll is the greatest. They blame Mike Garrett somewhat, but mostly think the NCAA acted hugely disproportionately.

lyle

Pete "Truther" Carroll. What a role model.

RickB

I would imagine Abdullah felt more disdain for Merde Touch than dislike. Disliking an incompetent simpleton isn't worth the effort. He may have even appreciated the opportunity to watch Sisi roll up the MB buffoons with the approval of the same rabble BOzo had tweeted into a "revolution".

Jane

Is anyone getting weather? I don't think it will arrive here until tomorrow AM.

narciso

Robert Lacey in inside the kingdom, revealed how the Saudi attitude to W, was not you would think, which is somewhat logical, as he was trying to upend the order in the region since 1945, if not 1932

Janet - healthy and jolly as a joker!

Easy to be depressed.

Yes, Jane.
The guitar serenade in France too.

This comment from an Ace post really hits home to me -

"Can you imagine if Bush did something like this?
The Late Night shows would be brutal, yet 99 out of 100 Americans will probably never hear of it.
Everyone likes to think the Democrats are playing 3rd Dimensional Chess when it comes to politics, but 90% of it is simply having a media cover for them 24/7."
Posted by: McAdams

Danube on iPad

Well, either Carroll will become the only coach with two collegiate championships and two Super Bowl wins, or Belichick and Brady will be the only coach/QB tandem with six appearances and four titles. Either result will make me happy.

narciso

Rush was pointing out the idiot study that Zaphod was pitching to the Glozell person,


http://pjmedia.com/michaelwalsh/2015/01/23/obamas-cloud-cuckoo-land/

Ben

" revealed how the Saudi attitude to W, was not you would think"

As in most bizness relationships, the tolerance for a competitor or a client is best augmented by their ROI. Clearly Abby knew who would grease his wheel with the least expense and the most profit.

Ignatz

A few minutes to kill before heading off to some friends so I'm ditching the squishy balls and youtubing Motor City Cobra Hearns vs Hagler or maybe Hearns vs Leonard II.

Now that's a sport.

Strawman Cometh

The clue bats are ringing too late; My 30 seconds of Smoe featured this from himself, with no reaction from Mika: "Obama is living in an alternate realty"

But his is my JOM quote of the day:
QBs handle balls more than anyone

Strawman Cometh

This
But this stuff writes itself

narciso

the Cliquesters are circling

http://hotair.com/archives/2015/01/23/sarah-palin-of-course-im-interested-in-running-for-president/

narciso

this is was the digital and tree murder,

http://www.clutchmagonline.com/2014/03/study-essence-innocence-consequences-dehumanizing-black-children/

Strawman Cometh

It pays to click the the narciso link:
"Palin told ABC News’ Neal Karlinsky while serving wild boar chili to the homeless in Las Vegas Thursday."
I love that woman.

Sue

If Palin was serious about running, she should avoid posing for pictures in front of a sign that says Fuc_ you Michael Moore.

Jane

Today on a liberal website, some guy mentioned "Empty chair day" and how pathetic it was.

Imagine my joy at realizing a democrat hack was well aware of, and completely ticked off by "empty chair day".

WE did that.

matt

Carlos Hathcock was perhaps the most famous sniper until Chris Kyle came along. These men are fearless. Read Hathcock's story if you want to know about courage and tenacity.

They will crawl and ease their way within a hundred yards of their target if necessary, exposing themselves to detection, in order to complete the mission. Then they have to escape.

Counter-sniper fire is also a fact of life and yes, the Al Q'aedas had some good ones. The Dragunov is a fine weapon.

There was one famous shot where a bad guy in Ramadi had killed or wounded three or four Marines. He was hiding deep in a building 1500 yards away with almost no "tell".

There is a certain feel, and our sniper nailed this guy through patience and skill after several hours of observation at distance.

Anyone who calls a sniper a coward is a fool.

Dave (in MA)
a democrat hack
Redundant.
Strawman Cometh

Yes, I am more than pleased with Boehner inviting Bibi and allowing Gohmert to have a gavel.
When he does something positive that also displeases his CoC overlords, I'll be over the moon.

clarice

I love Volokh (even though his son used to pu=inch the Wolverine in kindergarten) but I hope he's wrong on this one.

Strawman Cometh

I've seen an excellent piece on Hancock and his famous shot through the scope of the NV sniper. Light Binging didn't show it, but it is out there.

Jim Miller

Today's Ramirez cartoon is very good.

And on topic -- both topics.

(If I were a Democratic operative, I would be absolutely delighted by the timing and the attention being paid to eleven deflated footballs. That story almost killed the Darren Wilson story, and has driven the Sheldon Silver story off most front pages, and has made it likely that Obama's failure in Yemen will not get the attention it deserves.

Example: Today's Seattle Times had four stories on the front page. The lead story, given more than half of the page, was on Marshawn Lynch. Next came a story on the over-runs from "Bertha", Seattle's giant stuck tunneling machine. Below that, a brief story on the little problems in Yemen, And finally, given as much space as the other two, a story on the woman who sews the NFL balls.

They did have a story on Sheldon Silver inside, but it got much less total space than the story on Jane Helser, the nice lady who sews up those NFL balls.

Strawman Cometh

She's not.

narciso

well Gillebrand, having pointed out the late
Sen. Inouye as her harasser, has long since removed all doubt,

Janet - healthy and jolly as a joker!

Narciso's 7:56 is brutal. Excellent.

Eric in Boise

It's enough to make a guy teste.

I'm not much of an NFL follower, but I find the whole thing scrota fascinating.

MarkO

"Per Brady yesterday afternoon, they hadn't talked to him yet. Kinda like Hillary not being interviewed after Benghazi."

It's unlikely he deflated anything but the Colts. You want to find out who had control and then who might have let the air out, if, in fact, that is what happened.

Then, and only then, come the questions of who and why.

Do USC grads run everything in So. Cal. or just LA?

boatbuilder

If Palin was serious about running, she should avoid posing for pictures in front of a sign that says Fuc_ you Michael Moore

Got my vote! (But I see what you mean)

narciso

well the networks gave it 68 minutes yesterday, so that tells you their focus,

the other nets, have glommed on the encirclement that the Kingdom faces in this perfect storm, even Morning Joke, however, they miss something, the real threat is Sunni extremism, from the Azzam Brigades, Nusra Front, AQAP, all funded by or manned by persons from the Kingdom and the emirates,

jimmyk

Easy to be depressed.

Then perhaps you shouldn't see this, but in case anyone missed Jen Psaki's deer-in-the-headlights performance yesterday, it's here:

http://www.c-span.org/video/?323938-1/state-department-briefing

The part about Yemen that was on Megyn's show starts at about 2:45. Not sure who "Matt" is (the questioner), but he is obviously aghast at Jen's cluelessness, though presumably not surprised.

John Bolton was almost apoplectic. I really hope he's our next SoS.

Stephanie De Nile is a river in Progtopia

So, after the excitement of the radiologist almost crapping her pants during the chemical stress test yesterday when I passed out (got the hi lo readings. 240/187 dropped to 64/37 in 10 seconds - they think I set a record!) The results came back negative. No plaque, calcium or blockages. Now the bigheads at Emory are totally confused. All scans passed and still no explanation of what is causing this.

Went to dinner tonight and stood up from the table and had another episode and feel like caRp again.

I'm bummed. :(

narciso

well I saw the Salvation Army logo on the oven, but what do I know,

narciso

Matt Lee, he's the AP diplomatic correspondent,

jimmyk

Oh, and someone had mentioned the idiotic Doomsday Clock being moved up to 3 minutes before midnight, because climate change or something. I notice they also cite nuclear arms (but not Iran, just the "huge arsenals" of the superpowers) and "emerging technologies," what ever the hell that means. But not Isis, Iran, the general chaos of the Middle East, Pakistan, Afghanistan, due in no small part to 404's utter incompetence and ill will.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/23/us/feat-doomsday-clock-three-minutes-midnight/

MarkO

Steph, I'm so sorry.

jimmyk

Thanks, narc, I hope Matt Lee has a food taster.

narciso

teleprompter punking him again:

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/01/302837/

jimmyk

Sorry, Steph, I don't recall all the symptoms you described, but there is some kind of relatively benign condition where your BP can rise or fall dramatically from changing your position, like from lying down to standing up. A couple of my sibs at some point felt they had that, though they have hypochondriacal tendencies. Anyway, I'm sure you're aware of that or it's irrelevant.

Stephanie De Nile is a river in Progtopia

Tis ok MarkO, just frustrating as we are so conditioned to go see a doctor, get a pill and fix the problem that the non-instant gratification is unsettling. I'm thinking maybe a swing by Disneyland just so I can catch something that IS curable. ;)

Jane

John Bolton was almost apoplectic.

He is who got me all freaked out. And then, as always, we were back to no one giving a shit.

Strawman Cometh

Are there not 60 patriots willing to defend the Republic?

The comments to this entry are closed.

Wilson/Plame