Eerily Prescient On The Libyan Debacle

Astute observers are rightly noting that Hillary had a hand in the 2011 decision to overthrow Libyan strongman Qadaffi and replace him with... well, nothing but chaos.

But is this Monday morning quarterbacking? Is it fair to argue that Hillary could or should have foreseen a Libya divided along tribal lines, a dreadful refugee crisis, and the emergence of terror groups in the failed state?

Well, yes. For a bit of Sunday afternoon quarterbacking, let's excerpt this from March 22 2011, by Adam Garfinkle of The American Interest:

As noted, there is a regional and tribal element to the fight in Libya. It is unlikely that the Benghazi-based rebels could by themselves establish stable control over the whole country. It is almost as unlikely that the Tripolitanian tribes could re-establish firm control over Cyrenaica. Qaddafi managed the feat through a combination of patronage, terror and cooptation. That will be a very hard act to follow in the wake of so much bloodletting. We are therefore looking into the maw of a Libya that may well be divided, in the throes of some kind of protracted, at least low-level civil war, and that could very easily produce an insurgency spilling over the Egyptian and Tunisian borders—complete with refugees, the usual dysfunctional NGO triage operations and all the rest. And in due course, if the fractious mess lasts long enough, there is a reasonable prospect that al-Qaeda will find a way to establish a foothold amid the mayhem.

Who will want to send in peacekeepers to baby-sit a Libya that looks like that? Who’ll want to go to the UN to get the job authorized? The African Union?

Now, given that this sort of problem is foreseeable, and that it was also foreseeable before the cruise missiles started flying on Saturday, it stands to reason that a responsible, serious government will have thought about all this in advance, and come up with some plan for the post-combat “Phase IV” of the Libyan War, right? Not on your life; the President and his war council almost certainly have not even begun to think about this sort of thing, because they’re still in denial that it could happen. This is, after all, just a limited, humanitarian mission as far as they’re concerned. They don’t realize it yet, but these guys are on a path to make even Donny Rumsfeld and Tommy Franks look good—and you thought that was impossible.

Well, yes, that piece hit on refugees, terror groups, and an ongoing civil war in a failed state. And FWIW, I found it sufficiently persuasive to link to it back in the day, and recycle the main themes a few days later. The point being, these arguments were made in real time and ignored by the Administration, including our former Secretary of State.

As to the analogy to Iraq, well, the Colin Powell aphorism was that if you break it, you own it. Why don't Barack and Hillary own Libya? And can the Republicans let go of Benghazi and talk about the much larger failure of judgment involved in displacing Qadaffi with no credible plan to replace him?

The guy who got elected on 'No More Iraqs' gave us a new Iraq (and lost the original one!). With Hillary at his side encouraging our involvement.

Comments

[Miss Marple]

BBC Breaking NewsVerified account
‏@BBCBreaking

#Calbuco volcano in southern Chile erupts; authorities order an evacuation for 20 km around the site

Go to "View image" to see full pic. Just in time for Earth Day, tons of CO2 released!

[pagar]

Speaking of earth day promoters:

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/04/earth-day-co-founder-murdered-girlfriend-composted-body/

[Stephanie]

I remember who it was but will not name names.

[The Infamous Ignatz]

Michael Tomaskey dreams the impossible dream, or rolls Bill and Sir Edmund Clinton up the Sisyphean heights; take your pick:
The Clintons Still Aren't Corrupt.
Walter Duranty grins, awaiting Mikey's arrival in that special circle of hell for shameless propagandists.

[clarice]

If it was I, it must have been a typo.

[maryd]

Michael Tomaskey. Was ever a Bolshevik better named?

[Threadkiller]

O'Reilly and Krauthammer marvel and how corrupt the Clintons appear to be. They cite shit that was found in hidden in plain sight in the public domain.

These are the same guys that investigated Obama's narrative?

Krauthammer at least is hoping the veil of legalese covers how lazy he and O'Reilly have been.

[Oh, those many long years ago.]

Haha, maryrose, I remember that and I'll bet someone else does too. You wandered in right after a siege of trolls who sounded a lot like you.

There was a difference in tone, though, and U were furreal.

[Threadkiller]

...found hidden...

[clarice]

Obama named his sister to be a director of the
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

[Miss Marple]

http://cbs4indy.com/2015/04/22/group-of-students-staff-exposed-to-tuberculosis-at-southport-high-school/

This is the high school my grandchildren attend!

They got a call today and those who were exposed will be notified next week.

My grandson asks why it took so long. He is PO'd, as you can imagine, as prom and graduation are coming up.

Grrr.

[An odd medium.]

I distinctly remember thinking 'Hey, she's a teacher and is just summarizing the lesson'.

Glad you stuck around. There are a lot of people I miss, and not just the dead ones.

What's cool, though, is that the live ones still seem to pop back in now and then. With just a little imagination, the dead ones do too.

[Threadkiller]

At least she is a citizen, Clarice.

[Flying by the heat of his taunts.]

Heehee, you were the victim of an ace who'd just shot down about five trolls.

[L'esprit d'escalier, usually an ally against this medium.]

Oops, much better to substitue 'flying monkeys' for 'trolls' in whozit's comment above.

[Not you Clarice, how could I be upset by a typo]

Clarice:)

[lyle]

Is Precious' sister's Masters dissertation on how money is a whitey racial construct and thus deserving its separation from said whitey to everyone else?

[Pardon Libby, bring Fitzgerald to justice.]

Remember, I told bgates that you can be too good, and I prefer Cap'n HaHa to his regular moniker.

I was recently the target of an onslaught by someone I consider to be one of the most acute critics in the climate wars, and a friend. It was after I'd made a joke about Kerry, and he really unloaded. I still enjoy his comments, but I don't enjoy talking to him anymore.

Interestingly, he claimed to have worked for Bush, and was definitely not Swiftie sympathetic. Had I wondered before about any connection between Bush and the Swifties, he disabused me of that notion.

[Miss Marple]

lyle,

Got off the phone with grandson, who is extremely PO'd about the TB thing.

I used that conversation to remind him brainwashing would be in effect at IU, and he said he had already been warned by friends who were there.

Brought up the red shoes ROTC thing and he was aggravated.

Got to keep on top of these things. I will be driving down every week to take him to lunch or dinner next fall, to make sure the brainwashing is not taking effect.

[Kumbayah.]

lyle, I imagine the first meeting of that board is going to be very amusing.

[pagar]

"Obama named his sister to be a director of the
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland"

???????

[maryrose]

Obamas sister coming to the Cleveland Federal Reserve. Hide the silver
I denounce myself

[maryrose]

MM Was it illegal immigrants that brought in the TB

[Jack is Back!]

I was a AFROTC grad in 1965. This is a simple result of allowing gays in the miltary and softening the quals like for Marine officer infantry training. Your military is being demoted to the level of Malta's or Zambiia's.

My son once had aspirations for West Point, Colorado Springs and Annapolis but now would rather be in Hillsdale. Think about that.

[clarice]

"his" is Tomasky.

[clarice]

Sometimes the posts come too quickly. I should always remember to use names not pronouns to avoid confusion.

[maryrose]

Let's send some of those TB Students to Malias high school

[Miss Marple]

maryrose,

Don't know. Meth and shared needles are a problem in some of the small towns, so it could be that. Also, we don't really know where the feds settled the illegals who arrived in that wave last summer.

[Miss Marple]

maryrose,

My first comment referred to the HIV outbreak.

As far as the local high school, I would bet illegals but no one is talking.

[peter]

If that is the real j-i-b and not a troll, welcome back Bud.

[Jack is Back!]

peter,

Only if the Isles lose to the Caps:)

[maryrose]

Pin chuk a Clinton donor broke sanctions against Iran

[peter]

My son, who is not much of a sports fan, has lately become an Islanders fan. So I have to hope that they at least survive the first round. I really don't follow hockey much but I have to say that a playoff game can be enjoyable to watch. the pace really picks up vs reg season

[maryrose]

Every day we get a drip drip drip of scandal wrt Hillary
They are grifters pure and simple
Lewinsky. Marc Rich. The list is endless

[Jane on Ipad]

Jib,

I didn't get anything from you on Facebook.

[maryrose]

Kraut hammer says the Clintons cover their tracks but I'm sure they slipped up somewhere

[Jack is Back!]

Jane,

Posted on You Too Congress.

[Buckeye]

JiB

It will be a loss for the Academies, but Hillsdale is a fine school.

[henry]

My grandfather thought the academies were in trouble in the 70s (post Vietnam, recently coed, honor code scandals, bad economy, thus piss poor morale). He recommended getting the best education available, then OCS. Good plan until the intake physical (D1 soccer has a price).

[clarice]

WSJ announces Carly Fiorina will announce her candidacy on May 4.She's doing a marvelous job on Hillary.

[daddy]

From what I just got from Megyn's Show, one of the biggest doners to the Clinton Foundation was violating the Iran Sanctions as he donated millions to the Clinton Foundation.

Megyn suggested that on it's face it looks as if while she was Sec-State trying to impose the Administrations Iran Sanctions, she was receiving cash from an Iran Sanctions violator.

Megyn says that what is a bit different about this latest breaking story from NewsWeek, is that the Media will be able to look at the paperwork trail and the transfer timeline, and determine if it was a violation of the Law---if the Media decides to pursue this story.

We will see.

[maryrose]

Frederick will be successful wherever he goes

[So there's that, mebbe.]

I would be interested in anonamom's opinion, but I think it is at least possible that alien Tb might be more likely to be drug sensitive than the drug resistant variety we are cooking in our prisons, our homeless shelters, and our inadequate mental illness facilities.

[Jack is Back!]

maryrose,

He want's to go to University of Antwerp since his Grandfather founded it by combining 4 colleges into one famous European university. No football team but they will debate any other college.

[Pagar a bacon, ham and sausage supporter]

Is this Obama's secret sister?

[Beasts of England]

Teh One's Earth Day Tweet:

#ClimateChangeIsReal. So is President Obama's three-point game.

How insecure and narcissistic can a person be? The Onion wouldn't try this as satire, but Barry has to keep jumping all sharks.

[maryrose]

JIB
I know it is early but many high schools award a Phi Beta Kappa honor which recognizes a love of learning and an intellectual curiosity and pursuit of knowledge Frederick seems to fit that description

[Buckeye]

pagar

My thought exactly. Who is she and what is her story? I didn't even remember that he had a sibling. Who is HER daddy?

[Threadkiller]

Barack Obama And The Death Of Loretta Fuddy

Linda Jordan

When Hawaii Public Health Director Loretta Fuddy, a central player in the production of Barack Obama’s forged birth certificate, died in a mysterious plane crash1, many people suspected foul play, as improbable as it seemed. Now a wrongful death lawsuit, filed by Fuddy’s brother, has lawyers suggesting that someone may have tampered with the engine...

http://www.birtherreport.com/2015/04/final-nail-barack-obama-and-death-of.html?m=1

Chock full of details.

[Jack is Back!]

maryrose,

Thanks for your compliment vis a vis Frederick. Yes, he will do well.

Off to bed. Nytol. Slaap Lekker. Thanks for you indulgence during my absence.

[Beasts of England]

I've enjoyed watching Carly on a few of the Sunday political shows. She's far ahead of the talking heads and clearly enjoys slaying them. Who knows if she'll be part of the ticket, but I think she's invaluable for the greater campaign; and if she's not, there should be a cabinet slot offered.

[maryrose]

BOE
Obama remains true to form. A leopard doesn't change its spots
Maybe it's his sister from another mother

[Captain HaikuEric in Boise]

Just in time for Earth Day, tons of CO2 released!

Ha, MM! Not only is Lady Karma a beeyotch, she's obviously good friends with Lady Gaia!

[Threadkiller]

Her dad is purportedly Lolo Sortero, Buckeye.

Sortero is one of Obama's known aliases that he may have forgot to mention to the Illinois Bar Association costing him his license.

Allegedly.

[Threadkiller]

Soetoro

[Threadkiller]

http://www.theobamafile.com/_family/SoetoroDunhamMarriage.htm

[maryrose]

Henry
Meghan Kelly covering John Doe kerfufe

[maryrose]

All police officers the prosecutor and the judge who signed the warrant should be jailed

[henry]

Maryrose, thanks. No cable here.

[Rick Ballard]

Daddy,

The Iranian sanctions were authorized via two or three bills, enforcement and interpretation were delegated to the Executive and a few EOs were issued offering some level of interpretation. Treasury, not State, is the compliance watchdog and has FAQ pages online with an additional level of interpretation.

IOW - typical government hodgepodge and pinning the Red Witch with peddling indulgences is going to be a tough row to hoe. If Congress wants to lay blame, they need a mirror capable of reflecting 535 incompetents.

[maryrose]

Barbara Olivia signed hundreds of warrants
Chisholm the prosecutor looks like he is toast put a fork I them they are done I think I got judge Barbara's last name wrong

[henry]

Kluka was the judge that signed the warrants in one day, then declared a conflict the next.

[maryrose]

RB
Kraut hammer agrees with your assessment

[Eric in Boise]

Beasts, I worked for HP during Carly's administration and she left a bad taste in my mouth as she was quite the prima donna, and was out of touch with the rank and file employees, among other flaws.

Will she get the nomination? I doubt it. Would I vote for her if she did? No brainer as I'd vote for a ham sandwich rather than vote for the Red Witch/Squaw. Of course, I sang a similar tune in '08, and '12.

Anyway, she seems to be getting under the skin of the progs, and is obviously not shy about calling Cankles out on her carp, and I hope that continues.

[Miss Marple]

I really like Carly Fiorina.

[Miss Marple]

http://www.bizpacreview.com/2015/04/22/state-dept-cuts-airhead-looking-forward-to-outrage-over-marie-harf-being-passed-over-for-a-white-man-197670

[maryrose]

Henry
Please keep us posted Looks like it has hit critical mass
Jim what is happening in Washington with your dem scandal

[Janet]

"his" is Tomasky.

Not Obama's sister.

[Rick Ballard]

Henry,

Who is favored to be elected Chief Justice?

[maryrose]

Twenty to six in favor of fast track of TTP

[henry]

Rick, Patience Roggensack from what I hear. They may not vote until August 1 when the new term starts (traditionalists).

[maryrose]

Marie Harf is a dissembling fluff chick
Doesn't deserve the post

[daddy]

My son once had aspirations for West Point, Colorado Springs and Annapolis but now would rather be in Hillsdale. Think about that.

Amazingly sad sign of our times JiB, but I fully understand and certainly don't blame Frederick.

Glad to see you back, Sir.

[Miss Marple]

Ugh. We are under a freeze warning for tonight. Good thing I didn't plant anything.

[Beasts of England]

@EiB: Lots of prima donnas in that rarified air, but I understand there are legitimate dings on her from the HP days. I can live with that given her position and willingness to fire at Cankles, as you noted.

[Captain Haiku]

but now would rather be in Hillsdale.

Hillsdale not so bad
One can make it through without
Having to wear heels

[Miss Marple]

Beasts,

I like having her in the mix because of her swell barbs targeted towards Clinton.

She might not have been a great CEO of HP, but she definitely is more competent than Hillary, and I bet she could give Warren the business, too.

[Rick Ballard]

Henry,

The legislature should pass appropriations for redecorating the offices of the new Chief Justice. Patience should start leaving carpet and drape swatches on her desk next to paint samples and a tape measure.

[daddy]

Thanks Rick, for your 09:42 explanations.

Megyn read a partial statement from the alleged perp saying that the statements put out by NewsWeek were libelous. I hope the alleged perp presses the issue in court so that the Media has to pay attention and we can get to the bottom of this. I'm personally disgusted in that it seems the only folks who ever suffer real legal punishment are the Ted Stevens and Scooter Libby's of the world.

[maryrose]

Daddy. So true

[Jane on Ipad]

I can't remember Obama's sister. Who is she? Younger, I assume.what does she do for a living?

Beasts, Carly has been hitting it out of the park. She is the best thing we have against Hillary.

Jib I'll have to figure out how to access that FB PAGE, so it may be a while. Glad you decided to return.

I really hope Jon Doe in Wisconsin has legs.

Ohhh Hit...

Hohhot Dot....

[Captain Hate]

Ugh. We are under a freeze warning for tonight. Good thing I didn't plant anything.

We've had at least a couple instances of snowfall today; no accumulation but it still makes you sigh and think WTF. A week or so ago a local weatherman recommended not planting anything until the middle of May.

[Miss Marple]

Captain Hate,

Based on the old-timer's lore, I don't plant anything until May 15th. Occasionally I will do som pots for the patio, since I can bring them in if a hard freeze is forecast.

The old wives' tale here is to avoid planting anything susceptible to frost until after the snowball bushes have bloomed. (That is a variety of viburnum.)

[maryrose]

Season finale of the Americans

[Miss Marple]

Nytol!

[Beasts of England]

Carly is sharp-minded and very well spoken. A joy to watch. She is perfect for the broadsides (pun perhaps intended) against Hil.

[Eric in Boise]

The old wives' tale here is to avoid planting anything susceptible to frost until after the snowball bushes have bloomed.

Here in Boise, it's "No tomatoes until the snow is off Shafer Butte." Local peak in the Boise foothills.

Nytol, or Bytol. Whatever we're using currently.

[maryrose]

MM I have a virburnum tree in my backyard

[maryrose]

I prefer Bytol

[Captain Hate]

Regarding Fiorina, the third rate utility where I wasted 19.5 work years had a CEO who was just a miserable excuse for a human being. He had the Roger Goodell/George Costanza ability to be wrong about everything. In addition to that he was petty, vindictive, pompous and every other critical adjective you can apply to a horrible person.

After he mercifully retired and turned over the reins to a much better person who had unfortunately been gelded by the board, the retired guy apparently went to teach at John Carroll University such classes as business ethics. The reason I know this is because the wife of a friend had him for a class and told me he seemed to be wonderful person. As my blood pressure rose to aneurysm blowout levels, I not very calmly told her that anything positive he said about his work experiences is an out and out lie. But upon reflecting on it further I figured that he probably found something at which he was much better than leading a company.

The same probably applies to Fiorina.

[narciso]

Well that was cleared up, comrade pinch uk like a good spectra members have fingers in a lot of pies like davis, include the online education initiatives. But as with tamraz, vino la sic etc I don't expect much serious searching.

[Frau Nachtfrost]

EiB - In parts of Europe, the Ice Saints are considered by farmers to be the final period of frost.

The Ice Saints is a name given to St. Mamertus, St. Pancras, and St. Servatius in Austrian, Croatian, Czech, Dutch, Flemish, French, German, Hungarian, North-Italian, Polish, Slovene and Swiss folklore. They are so named because their feast days fall on the days of May 11, May 12, and May 13 respectively. The period from May 12 to May 15 was noted to bring a brief spell of colder weather in many years, including the last nightly frosts of the spring.

[narciso]

Well the huntress did endorse her as a Senate candidate, as opposed to a huck type and another fellow. I'm surprised Chelsea wasn't brought into the Ukrainian realm. We saw how the Solon ' s son got a similar sweetheart deal re ukraine gas.

[Stephanie]

Fodder for the "most electable" cannons.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/04/22/this-chart-perfectly-explains-why-the-middle-is-dying-in-american-politics/?tid=sm_fb

[narciso]

Cilia does get one in three columns right, the others will be doozies.

[GUS]

MYSTERY haiku GUY.

Any guesses??

[Eric in Boise]

Thanks for that, Frau. What I've always loved, and continue to love about this site is that I learn things here that I would never learn anywhere else.

Now for a word from my alter ego:

JOMer sighs
Rubs his eyes, with heavy lids
And whispers "Nytol"

[narciso]

It's curious how the Americans seem to have borrowed the koa chess as their inspiration even though they say it was the Chapman ring.

[narciso]

Carp that north Korean deal, negotiated by the same deal behind this one, toad the wet sprocket.

[Eric in Boise]

Heh. All kinds of possibilities for "Haiku Gus", but I'll let somebody else explore them.

Gus: Love ya , brother.

Now I've Really got to get to bed. Long day tomorrow.

Boise out.