And Nobody He Knew Voted For Nixon

Nick Kristof describes the pros and cons of the Iranian deal and surprises no one by supporting it. But this tidbit repeats a classic reporter's mistake:

You doves think that a nuclear deal will empower reformers in Iran and turn it once more into the pro-American and pro-Israeli power it was under the shah. But sanctions relief may just give this regime a new lease on life.

Iran’s people are perhaps the most pro-American and secular of those of any country I’ve been to in the Middle East. (On my last trip to Iran, I took two of my kids along, and Iranians bought them meals and ice cream, and served them illegal mojitos.) The public weariness with the regime’s corruption, oppression and economic failings is manifest. I would guess that after the supreme leader dies, Iran will begin a process of change like that in China after Mao died.

Hmm, or maybe instead of the China model they will reform like Russia, that other staunch US ally. But in any case, the classic mistake is this - Kristof forgets that he travels in his own little bubble. It was not "the Iranians" that bought his daughter some ice cream - it was three women in a seemingly conservative city. No pollster and few agenda-driven social scientists would consider that to be an impressive sample.

Is there any reason to think that virulent anti-Americans would seek out Mr. Kristof? Any reason to think that pro-Americans might? My goodness, the odds are excellent that here at home Mr. Kristof's social circle includes no opponents of abortion or gay marriage, even though such people exist even outside of fly-over country. Yet one trip to Iran convinces him that the whole country is ready to stop chanting "Death to the Great Satan" and start up with "USA!"? Please.

FWIW, Pew Research is not doing a lot of polling in Iran, but their year-old global survey of attitudes towards the US included this:

Anti-Americanism is particularly strong today in the Middle East. In Egypt only 10% of the public favor the United States, which long backed the regime of Hosni Mubarak and failed to oppose the military overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood government that succeeded him. Support is not much higher in Jordan (12%) and Turkey (19%), both countries that are notionally Washington’s allies.

With friends like that it is hard to imagine our enemies are a lot more enthusiastic about us. I doubt that dumping Qadaffi and turning Libya into an obvious quagmire, the red-line dancing in Syria and under-reacting to the rise of ISIS have boosted our popularity.

Comments

[Buckeye]

And by the time Zero is done, our popularity in Isreal will be at an altime low also.

[henry]

Do we know what the rest of Africa, or Asia, or Europe think of us? Iran could be as good as it gets under Obama.

[Appalled]

Tom, I think you are underestimating the love a people under an oppressive regime often has for its enemies. See Eastern Europe.

I have no doubt a lot of Iranian people love us. Not that that really matters.

[steve]

And it's irrelevant how much the Iranian 'people' love America, what matters is how much the Iranians in control of the military hate America. Could Kristoff be so dumb as to think that the Mad Mullahs will reflect the will of the 'people'?

Put another way, all the love the Iranians have for America and $4 will buy you an ice cream cone on the streets of Iran.

[narciso]

exactly this ties us to the regime, not the people, as in cuba, the real green revolution was crushed in 2009

[Cispigmented Heteronormative Microagressive Ignatz]

--In Egypt only 10% of the public favor the United States, which long backed the regime of Hosni Mubarak and failed to oppose the military overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood government that succeeded him.--

Good to know pollsters are immune to confirmation bias and unsupported assumptions.
Could just as easily have read and would probably be closer to the truth;

In Egypt only 10% of the public favor the United States, which failed to back the regime of Hosni Mubarak and failed to support the military overthrow of the hated, corrupt and increasingly dictatorial Muslim Brotherhood government that the US had actively helped succeed him.

[narciso]

the US isn't popular in Venezuela's opposition since 2002, when the Bush administration stood by
and let Chavez crush that revolt,

[Cispigmented Heteronormative Microagressive Ignatz]

--And it's irrelevant how much the Iranian 'people' love America...--

It's only irrelevant with an anti American jerk-off in the WH.
It would be relatively easy to destabilize, undermine and ultimately overthrow the mad dogs running Iran.

When the opportunity arose, the conscienceless traitor in the oval office, and his little Persian hyrax sidekick, sat on their hands and watched the mullahs shoot and arrest the people who love America and would have ended the 35 year nightmare they've endured.

[squaredance]

Oh they all do this: mistake their "Travel Bubble" with the country or society at large.

You hear this from even middle class liberal travelers (and even some non-liberals), but the political "classes" are absolutely childish about this. Sometimes it is quite comic. When they tell you about their encounters with what they think are their peers and you point out that those people there are actually several levels above them in those societies (and I am thinking Europe here), and that the fact they are talking to them is only due to relative US wealth, it goes right over their heads. They cannot figure it out.

I can remember a couple that had an interest in agriculture; they were guests at a (quite large) hobby farm of an extremely wealthy Italian family of the old aristocracy.
Of course it was set up to look like they were a bunch of peasants and the farm could not turn a profit (or even sustain itself) without huge subsidies, public and private. They contrasted it with working America, middle class farming, and were quite disparaging about American farming methods. They raved on about how "close to the land", and not "natural" their Italian friends farming was. When I pointed out that if you actually tried to run a working farm like that you would go broke inside 2 years, and that one in actually could not be "farther from the land", they looked at me like I had two heads. (Later they found out the hard way).

Subjective emotional and sentimental impressions are everything with these people. They live in their narratives and not the real world. They cannot deal with reality.

Unfortunately they have quite a lot of power in this society.

Of course this is less true today due to globalization and the dismantling of American Wealth.

[Cecil Turner]

Most of the lefty pundits ignore the military reality, which is stark. Krauthammer said it well back in 2012: Israel is a one-bomb country, and the Iranians know it. As Rafsanjani noted:

“Application of an atomic bomb would not leave anything in Israel but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world.”

. Moreover, an Israeli response targeting military installations would be ineffective in stopping a genocidal assault on Israeli cities. It's not a level playing field.

Add in the fact that a plausibly deniable attack is possible (e.g., through a container to Haifa) and deterrence is unlikely to work.

If you can't deter 'em, the only other solution is to keep 'em from enriching uranium. Unfortunately, this deal does nothing of the sort, and in fact explicitly allows enrichment (which has been ongoing throughout negotiations). How it can be characterized as a "good deal" is a great exercise in denial.

[Dave (in MA)]

Tank Commander Mike apparently never heard about Munich.

[steve]

It would be relatively easy to destabilize, undermine and ultimately overthrow the mad dogs running Iran.

Sure, it is. It's worked so well with Syria.

Never underestimate the willingness of a dictator to resort to almost anything to retain power.

[narciso]

well it's taken longer, but the project of the emirates and the kingdom has born fruit,

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/07/jihadist-led-coalition-launches-new-offensive-against-assad-regime-in-strategic-plain.php

[Jeff Dobbs]

New Qunnipiac poll out. No surprises in it. No change in who's in/out in the Fox debate when you use the last 5 poll average at RCP. BTW, RCP has dropped Graham from their tracking. I guess showing 0 on so many polls in a row will do that.

Here's the RCP last 5 poll average:

1 Trump 19.8
2 Walker 13.6
3 Bush 12.6
4 Rubio 7.2
5 Carson 6.4
6 Huckabee 6.2
7 Paul 6
8 Cruz 4.8
9 Kasich 3.2
10 Christie 3.2
11 Perry 2.2
12 Jindal 1.4
13 Fiorina 1.4
14 Santorum 1.4
15 Pataki 0.6

[DublinDaveForever]

"And by the time Zero is done, our popularity in Isreal will be at an altime low also"

Good,we're the only ones in the world who condone the gestapo like tactics of those nasty little Jews.And trust me,we give them so much money we could probably drop bombs on them and their greedy little Jew hearts would forgive us.

However,great to see Israel's spy- who got paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to steal American secrets finally get out of jail.And who cares is the Israeli spy also sold sensitive documents to the the Chinese and the Russians.And who cares if the scumbag is a national hero in Israel.............oy vey!!!!!

It's Israel that should be worrying about their popularity here.

[narciso]

dr. evil's patented cure, seems to worked out just as planned,

[clarice]

And then we have the junior year abroad types who come back thinking it would be so neat to cut off already chocked city streets so we could all bike from our city flats to work like they do in Amsterdam or build Japanese type fast trains around America.

Or the europeans who imagine the ill-garbed rubes who show up are of the same class as their much richer countrymen who can actually afford to travel outside Europe or the third world. They also have no idea of the size of America or its complexity and imagine you if you live here you must certainly know their cousin who works in a NJ auto repair shop.

[jimmyk]

That story Miss M linked on the last thread really hits home:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/ubs-deal-shows-clintons-complicated-ties-1438223492

Recently just to do some temporary work with the Treasury Dept I had to turn my (and also my wife's) finances inside out ten times over to disclose any possible conflict of interest. There's no way I could take money from any entity that had any dealings with Treasury. I guess the State Dept works a bit differently? Or the Clintons get their usual exemption from the rules governing all the little people.

[squaredance]

I do not know how true this is today as the UK has become much richer, but I remember a while ago a friend of mine was leaving a Major Ivy League school to go back to a really good position at Oxford. He seemed at times a little dejected, and, as it was a real honor and a famous chair he was going to, really beyond his options here, I asked why. He said that he did not think he would be able to afford a reasonable car.

Again, I do not think that is true today, but it does underline the point.

[narciso]

the latter, they rail against hedge fund and banksters but get their piece of the action,

[jimmyk]

Never underestimate the willingness of a dictator to resort to almost anything to retain power.

Khaddafy would wave his hands if he could.

[James D]

if you live here you must certainly know their cousin who works in a NJ auto repair shop.

You mean Vinnie? Have you talked to him lately, Clarice? I've been curious how the kids are doing...

[Cecil Turner]

Here's the RCP last 5 poll average:

I've repeatedly opined that Trump's candidacy is likely to set up a one-on-one for the nomination, which he will then lose. But if it's against Walker, I think I'd have to withdraw my objection.

(Perry is still the best candidate in the field, though.)

[Cispigmented Heteronormative Microagressive Ignatz]

--Sure, it is. It's worked so well with Syria.--

Yes. Syria is Iran. Training ~60 armed rebels to join the fanatical, fragmented jihadists who had already begun an armed insurrection against a relatively secular Ba'athist, one family rule and dropping some leaflets and a couple of bombs is the same as patiently supporting and encouraging relatively secular pro US Iranians who oppose the fanatical theocracy of the mullahs.

Comparing the utterly unserious political charade and window dressing of Red Line Barry in Syria to a sustained, sensible effort to encourage the millions of fed up Iranians is in itself unserious.

[clarice]

I once had a well educated French man who had previously held a high government position insist there was strip coal mining in Wisconsin..further discussion revealed he's confused Wyoming with Wisconsin. Jr. year abroad students might do well to remember that when they are criticized for not knowing much about the history of every country in Europe, his interrogators know nothing of the far larger USA.

[narciso]

it's next to the vast cheddar mines, don't you know clarice,

[clarice]

Must be--the curds blocked my view.

[Cispigmented Heteronormative Microagressive Ignatz]

Tom Cotton vs Mr Potato Head on Iran.

[rse]

Clarice-Denmark is building quite the tourist business from globalists who work for agencies, universities, think tanks, and cities jetting in to see their "designed green cities" and then going home to plan the implementation here.

[Captain Hate]

Even these guys know that trolling Lurch, Kristof and 404 is fun:

http://www.weaselzippers.us/230411-iran-accuses-obama-and-kerry-of-lying-to-america-about-nuke-deal-uttered-for-domestic-use/

[Stephanie]

https://twitter.com/redsteeze/status/626606790965379072

More on the PP website.

[clarice]

4th video:http://www.lifenews.com/2015/07/30/4th-video-catches-planned-parenthood-vp-discussing-how-to-break-the-law-to-sell-aborted-babies/

[Captain Hate]

Could Kristoff be so dumb as to think that the Mad Mullahs will reflect the will of the 'people'?

Easily; he's an heir to Walter Duranty.

Perry is still the best candidate in the field, though

Based on what?

[Rick Ballard]

New Baby Butchers video out.

It will be interesting to see if they have videos of the butchers offering money to women in the slaughterhouses.

[Dave (in MA)]

U
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.

[Cispigmented Heteronormative Microagressive Ignatz]

I took CT to be saying Perry would make the best pres, not necessarily was the best candidate or campaigner.

Perhaps he'll know more about what he meant than I do. :)

[Cecil Turner]

Yes. Syria is Iran.

I liked your earlier response better.

I agree it'd be relatively easy to conduct a destabilization effort against the Mullahs . . . but only in theory. We certainly can't do it without a new Prez, a wholescale house cleaning at both CIA and DoS . . . and we'd still probably miss enough Dem partisan moles to torpedo the whole effort.

After watching our feckless attempt to promote ourselves to an occupied Iraq (and lefties handwringing over it), I despair of ever running an IW campaign worthy of the name, let alone an all-out destabilization effort. (And heaven help us if another demagogue like the current one used it to vault into the White House; a non de minimis risk.)

[Captain Hate]

Time for Mincemeat Wenner to face the real music:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/29/us-usa-sexcrimes-lawsuit-idUSKCN0Q32NS20150729

[Cecil Turner]

I took CT to be saying Perry would make the best pres, not necessarily was the best candidate or campaigner.

Correct. Apologies for the imprecision.

[jimmyk]

A better example than Khaddafy is of course Mubarak. We (meaning Valerie and Barry) were perfectly capable of helping to topple him, in favor of the Muslim Brotherhood. But Mubarak he had no designs on Israel and was trying to keep the Jihadists in check.

[narciso]

this was why both were targeted, they were on Quradawi's to do list, Syria, has taken longer, but it's the same objective, and Maverick and Goose, and that whole cast of players are on the ball.

[Captain Hate]

meaning Valerie and Barry

And Bill Ayers and Code Stink...

[Janet S.]

It will be interesting to see if they have videos of the butchers offering money to women in the slaughterhouses.

Exactly. Not much discussion of the WOMEN that PP says they are so concerned about.

A FB friend wrote - "... And this is exactly the reason these people insist on partial birth abortions."

When some generic release is signed do the women KNOW baby parts will be sold? Do the women KNOW the dead baby will be delivered breech on purpose to maximize baby body parts?

[Cispigmented Heteronormative Microagressive Ignatz]

Mubarak is a good example of the difference between an authoritarian like the Shah or Pinochet who aren't that hard to get rid of and who don't cling to power to the last citizen of their country and totalitarians.

Steve is correct in that the mullahs are much more in the totalitarian end of the spectrum, but so were the Soviets. Popular uprisings are a much better, more lasting method, though hardly a foolproof one of overturning a totalitarian, than outside force such as Iraq.

Each country is different of course and Iran has a history of relative benevolence toward the west and a relatively cosmopolitan and secular middle class that just wants to be left alone. It's a lot like Argentina in that it sits on the potential to be a model country for relative freedom and prosperity but never reaches that potential.

Note I specifically and repeatedly include "relatively" as a qualifier. It would still be difficult but should another popular uprising occur, if there is a non Marxist, pro freedom loving administration in power in the US the potential is there to at least make Iran into a neutral, non-terrorist state and a popular uprising is about the only way it has any chance of lasting.

[narciso]

the left consequently went after the NED in the 00s, eliminating that tool of persuasion,

[narciso]

so when did this back channel really begin, one thought it was in 2012, but Lurch's in laws suggest
it happened much earlier,

[Extraneus]

Judge orders Tom Brady suit to be moved to N.Y.

[Cispigmented Heteronormative Microagressive Ignatz]

I believe you're looking for the thread one back, Ex. :)

[Jane]

"I have no doubt a lot of Iranian people love us. Not that that really matters."

I would be shocked if they love us, based on our abandonment of them in 2009.

[Appalled]

Cecil:

The rap on the Texas governorship I recall when W was running was that it was fairly powerless -- that being in charge of the Texas governorship didn't prove much. Did that change while Perry was governor?

[Stephanie]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/suitcase-found-close-to-suspected-mh370-debris-on-reunion-beach-1438269569?mod=e2fb

More on Flight 370.

[Janet S.]

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/07/30/watch-as-ted-cruz-initiates-tense-exchanges-with-top-obama-admin-officials-on-iran-dont-distort-my-words/

I am voting for Ted Cruz for President of the United States.

[jimmyk]

Popular uprisings are a much better, more lasting method, though hardly a foolproof one of overturning a totalitarian, than outside force such as Iraq.

As your subsequent paragraph suggests, the likelihood of such an uprising, and of its success, may depend heavily on which side the White House is on. People like Kristof think Reagan was just a goof who was lucky enough to be in the WH as the Soviet Empire began to crumble. But that should be reversed to say that the citizens of the eastern bloc countries were lucky enough that Reagan was in the WH. (And yes, I know that the actual uprising wasn't until after GHWB was president. Bush 41 was lucky to have followed 8 years of Reagan's presidency :).)

So in my earlier post I wasn't suggesting active intervention in Syria and Iran, but just Reagan-style moral support of the opposition.

[Marlene]

I just can't stomach the PP story.In our family,we have miracle babies. Three years ago,one of our nieces prematurely delivered twin girls. The total weight between them was under 5 lbs. They spent weeks and weeks in NICU with outstanding medical care,love and prayers. They are happy and healthy three year olds.

The story is horrific and as mentioned,people are crying for Cecil the lion.

[jimmyk]

Reunion Island is pretty far from where they were looking for MH 370, which as I recall was off the coast of Australia. It's about 6000 miles to the west.

[Cispigmented Heteronormative Microagressive Ignatz]

Joke from the comments of this WSJ story; Not an Introvert, Not an Extrovert? You May Be An Ambivert

Q: How do you tell an introverted mathematician from an extroverted mathematician?

A: The extroverted mathematician looks at YOUR shoes when he's talking to you!

Take the quiz.

[clarice]

jimmyk, it's the only missing Boeing 777 and is in a normal drift pattern from the last known location of MH370.

[squaredance]

We used to say, what is the difference between a statistician and an accountant?

The statistician does not have enough personality to be an accountant.

[Cecil Turner]

Did that change while Perry was governor?

Was it ever true? Is being governor of Texas (for 14+ years) less a qualification than a not-quite-one-term Senator like the one you voted for?

Perry's qualifications (as I see it, of course):

• Executive experience--government executive experience as Governor demonstrates ability to lead administration and execute policies effectively;
• Temperament--mature, steady performance not prone to dangerous instability;
• Conservative ideology--unlikely to expand government or take constitutionally dubious actions to implement agenda; fiscally sound;
• Common sense--takes reasonable positions on complex problems (correct in a remarkable percentage IMHO); and finally,
• Foreign policy--military vet, travel, well-thought out positions--probably his most limited area of experience, but at least he's on the right side

As always, one has to guess how well the candidate's strengths will map onto the duties of president . . . but at least on paper, Perry appears to me to have the strongest resumé.

[narciso]

it's another narrative, which is discarded when not necessary, ie: governor of a small southern state, with the right cronies,

[squaredance]

Seems like amvivbert are just civilized, confident, well mannered and well bred people raised properly, and who find unfettered self promotion and public displays of egoism churlish and embrassing.

The sound like a Englishmen or an American Midwesterners of days gone bye.

Hardly a 'psychological type", but in our current state of rot it does not surprise that "scientists" are "discvering it" anew.

[narciso]

shocker,

http://hotair.com/archives/2015/07/30/clinton-e-mails-had-classified-data-from-five-intel-agencies-including-nsa/

[Buckeye]

Thanks squaredance....I took the test and it said I was an Ambivert.

Mrs. Buckeye might argue the "well bred" part.

[James D]

I don't buy that quiz, Ig. I am definitely an introvery, and it told me I'm an ambivert.

[narciso]

part of a pattern:

http://babalublog.com/2015/07/30/in-cuba-there-is-neithfer-bread-nor-freedom/

[narciso]

meeting people and making friends,

http://pagesix.com/2015/07/29/france-is-furious-over-gisele-bundchens-burqa-disguise/?_ga=1.44538532.1076716850.1415581341

[narciso]

and mittens have to throw his two cents in, just because,

[narciso]

so what good are you?

http://therightscoop.com/mitt-romney-slams-ted-cruz-for-comments-on-iran-deal-says-hes-way-over-the-line-hurting-the-cause/

[Captain Hate]

Good to know that the king of the RINOs is still in his Debate 3 mode.

[James D]

Mitt can just go and STFU.

He may be a wonderful human being, and do loads of charity work, but as a political figure, he sucks rocks and he needs to go away.

[narciso]

you know they were more skeptical than megyn, which is just another mogatu marker

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/07/29/he-walked-right-into-a-buzzsaw-msnbc-hosts-are-not-kind-to-reporter-behind-report-on-donald-trumps-ex-wife/

[lyle]

My respect for Mittens drops more every day. And I always felt like those Mittcitement pills I was taking every day three years ago were a scam. Poor, poor pitiful me.

[lyle]

Or what James said.

[Rick Ballard]

Janet S.,

Mapping the zip codes for the Baby Butcher slaughterhouse locations would be a good task for the blacklivesmatter ofas while we wait for the next Darwin winner thug.

I would really like to see more publicity regarding the scope of the Progressive Black Genocide project.

[squaredance]

Really. Romney should just be quite and go away...escort his wife to Dressage competitions, and such. What a loser--and how presumptuous: he is a spokesman for no one but himself these days. Cruz is performing a real function here, and it is too bad more Americans do not evidently get a change to see it.

In that video what truly shocks is the sophistry around the implications of giving them $150 bil. Pure cant sophistry and casuistry. These people can not say what they mean nor mean what they say. There always has to be some "parsing", some "qualification.

Given that there will be real death out of this, perhaps even millions of them, these people need to be asked some hard question.

The Tragedy, or one of them at east is that they only get a very few minutes of these grilling in congress.

[Captain Hate]

Trump had the "dead intern" comments ready to launch.

[lyle]

I know everyone here reads Insty but he his a true font for Heinlein quotes:

Or as Robert A. Heinlein said “A government supported artist is a whore — an incompetent one.”

[MarkO on laptop in Sun Valley, ignoring the world]

Mitt lost a winnable election. He is not someone on whom anyone should rely for political advice.

[Captain Hate]

I guess this asshole thought that nobody in the US pays attention to Telemundo:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/07/29/luis-gutierrez-explodes-on-immigration-expert-for-quoting-his-dismissal-of-kate-steinles-murder/

[Cecil Turner]

Good to know that the king of the RINOs is still in his Debate 3 mode.

Yes. Very lame.

[clarice]

http://thefederalist.com/2015/07/30/planned-parenthood-hacking-sure-looks-like-an-orchestrated-pr-stunt/

[Captain Hate]

Tammy Bruce is just trucking the RNCe for having Willard chastise Cruz after their other fair haired boys are busy trashing Trump. She said it's pretty effing bad when you devote more time and effort to trashing one of your own than blasting 404.

[sbw]

This multi-thread idea works. I haven’t been deflated by the content at the previous thread. ;-)

[boatbuilder]

I had always wondered how anyone, short of the most committed abortion-rights absolutist, could politically support partial-birth abortion (see Obama, Barack, D-Ill). Now I know. They want the money.

[Cecil Turner]

Gotta say, I'm very impressed with the planned parenthood videographer. Dunno who they've got doing the undercover work, but it's like James O'Keefe on steroids.

I'd also note the NYTimes is getting dragged into it (still on the support side, natch), even though I'm sure they'd rather spike the story.

[clarice]

http://freebeacon.com/issues/white-house-wont-commit-to-veto-of-bill-defunding-planned-parenthood/

[One, two, three, whaddya see?]

That's not smoke I smell in the Theatre, it's Trump on fire.

[Jane]

Now that's progress.

[Gentlejim]

James D,
I would've bet the farm that I was an introvert also, but I came up ambivert. Maybe we need to work harder. Could be our definitions for the words were off and introverts are actually hermits.
I'm getting a good test of my "vert" status this week in the Pigeon Forge/gatlinburg area. Too many people. Good thing I can go back to the cabin in the mountains.

[Tejas Tammy]

"Perry's qualifications (as I see it, of course):"

You left out...

Strengths:
- Eyeglasses to make him look smart.

Weaknesses:
- Inability to remember more than two things.

Net Impact:
- Weaknesses far outweigh strengths.

Good news is he will never poll more than 2-3% and will be knocked out soon.