Hillary's The One!

Recent swing-state polling points in favor of my argument that Hillary is the Democratic Party's answer to Richard Nixon - they respect her longevity and resume but have no actual enthusiasm for her:

Poll: Clinton trails top Republicans in battleground states

Washington (CNN)Hillary Clinton trails three top Republican presidential candidates in head-to-head matchups in Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, a new survey shows.

The latest Quinnipiac University swing state polling released Wednesday shows the Democratic frontrunner trailing former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in each of those states.

The biggest loser, the polls found, is Donald Trump, who has surged to the front of a crowded Republican primary field nationally but is viewed unfavorably, by almost a 2-to-1 margin, by voters in those states.

The results offered more indications that Clinton has a problem: Voters say they don't trust her.

In Colorado, only 34% of voters said they see Clinton as honest and trustworthy while 62% said they don't. In Iowa, the numbers were 33% to 59% -- a drop from 45% to 47% in April. And in Virginia, Clinton did best, at 39% saying they trust her to 55% saying they don't.

Democrats backing Barack in 2008 felt like they were going to a rock concert. Democrats backing Hillary in 2016 feel like they are going to the dentist.

OK, to be fair, the more enthusiastic ones feel like they are taking the car in for an oil change. It has to be done, and you can even give yourself character and responsibility points for doing it. Hillary's the one!

SEARCHING FOR THE UNIVERSAL METAPHOR: Everyone goes to the dentist, or ought to. But changing the oil? How about cleaning the gutters? That has to be a suburban guy thing lacking urban and female resonance. Mowing the lawn is out, for similar reasons. Emptying the diswhwasher? Now we are on the other side of the gender fence. Hmm, we weigh these tough choices every day at JOM, or at least, every now and then...

Comments

[clarice]

XOXO , TM.nice analogies.

[henry]

colonoscopy.

[They might flutter had they byes.]

Be still thy beating hearts, Al Gore, John Kerry.

[Captain Hate]

snaking out the drain

[The Press, when it's not pap, it's a smear.]

Pap smear.

[Captain Hate]

Expressing the dog's anal glands

[rich@gmu]

good grief ...

... I got nothing.

[Mahon]

Hillary's secret weapon is Trump. The only reason that Bill Clinton was elected President in 1992 was that Ross Perot split the conservative vote. I think the plan is for Trump to cause as much disruption as possible in the GOP primary process, then run as an independent and skim off 6-8 per cent of the vote in the general election, letting Hillary Clinton squeeze in. Then Trump has the federal government on his side for 8 years, whatever he gets up to.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Maintenance sex with your spouse . . . if that spouse was Hillary.

[sbw]

So the five polls averaged will decide the GOP debate candidates?

I refuse to answer any telephone poll. Period. Find a better way to debate.

--

Rince and Repeat “selected” me for a mailed poll of leading questions that ended asking how much I wanted to spend in money and time to help the RNC win.

Hahahahahahaha! Eat postage and die!

[MarkO]

I'm going to the dentist today. If under nitrous oxide I see Hillary, I will blame TM.

[DebinNC]

This early in the game, phone polls mainly reflect candidate name recognition imo. Why else is Huckabee polling relatively well?

[maryrose]

The huckster will not win
His time has come and gone
My bet is draft Biden movement starts sometime in August or September
Once that happens all bets are off

[DebinNC]

I like Huckabee, but he doesn't deserve a debate spot via his name recognition from his FOX gig.

[sbw]

Don’t count our NY governor out as he waits for Bernie Hill O’Malley to fight club itself to the mat before entering to “save the party”.

[hrtshpdbox]

It would (will) be nice to get Virginia back in the R column.

[DebinNC]

I actually watched O'Malley speak for 20 min. at the AZ NetRoots confab, before being rudely interrupted by the #blacklivesmatter nazis. He's the Dems strongest candidate by far imo, having the same "cool" vibe that propelled BOzo to victory. Fortunately, nutjob blacks hate him for bringing down crime by arresting more drug dealers as Baltimore mayor.

[Tom Maguire]

The only reason that Bill Clinton was elected President in 1992 was that Ross Perot split the conservative vote.

Maybe twelve years ago I actually spent several hours staring at exit poll numbers and other stuff related to that. I convinced myself that the point is very debatable - there were a LOT of "time for a change" voters who were not getting behind Bush, and Clinton ran (forget about his subsequent governance) as a very centrist Dem. So Perot drew from both camps.

Naturally I have no notes and no good idea what my sources were. Nor have I tried to recreate that research.

And in any case, I don't see Trump attracting many possible Dem voters, so the analogy is not great. Maybe Nader 2000?

FWIW, in this comment from a ten year old post I made the same argument, so I have consistency going for me...

[Tom Maguire]

And do let me add: Although Talking Points Memo is not my normal go-to source, they do have an essay on this very topic which notes Perot's many lefty positions and some polling data.

This 2012 article by longtime pollster Tim Hibbits has polling details. An excerpt:

We have pre-election polls and exit polling to make an assessment of what impact Perot actually had on the outcome. In a three-way match-up nationally, in early June 1992, Perot led with 39%, Bush was second with 31%, while Bill Clinton trailed with 25%, according to Gallup. Perot exited the race during the Democratic convention in mid-July. In the immediate aftermath of the convention, Gallup had Clinton leading Bush 56% to 34%, clearly a post-convention bounce. But a month later, Clinton still led -- by between 17 and 25 points -- in half a dozen national media polls, with President Bush not exceeding 37% of the vote in any of them. In mid-September, with Perot still out of the race, an ABC News/Washington Post poll gave Clinton a commanding 58%, with the incumbent still stuck at a very familiar 37%.

Then, on October 1st, Perot re-entered the race. An October 8-11 poll -- done by the Times Mirror Center for The People & The Press, directed by the outstanding Andrew Kohut -- found that Clinton had dropped to 48%, with Bush at 35%, and Perot at 8% (in mid-September, they had found Clinton leading Bush 53%-38%). An October 20-22 follow-up poll of the same 1,153 voters surveyed earlier in the month found that Clinton had slipped to 44%, while Bush held at 34%, and Perot had jumped to 19%. The very first sentence of the extensive press release, dated October 26, 1992, noted that, “Ross Perot's surge in the polls is drawing somewhat more support from Bill Clinton than from George Bush, and the third party candidate seems poised to make more gains that might further narrow Bill Clinton's nationwide margin.” That press release came out the same morning that Perot’s bizarre charges that Republicans had conspired to ruin his daughter’s wedding floated into the general political consciousness, and that was the end of the Perot surge. Nonetheless, he still drew 19% on Election Day, to Clinton’s 43% and Bush’s 37.5%

I haven't dug into this pollster's politics (lefty's think that the outright Clinton win gives him more legitimacy), but still.

[Captain Hate]

I don't think this is what comrade Ayers had in mind:

http://acecomments.mu.nu/?post=358011

[narciso]

well we get some flavor, of the fellow here;

http://www.blueoregon.com/2005/05/tim_hibbitts_on/

perot was antiinterventionist, protectionist, of the stripe of the populists, like Bryan,

[Captain Hate]

Both Slick and Poppy Bush were terrible candidates, something the GOP apologists and lickspittles have a hard time dealing with.

[narciso]

true, in retrospect, he won the first time over Dukakis, who had the personality of warm tapioca,

[Jeff Dobbs]

TM:
FWIW, in this comment from a ten year old post I made the same argument, so I have consistency going for me...

For a blogger, you're pretty damn old, TM.

BTW, I found the last six comments in that thread the most convincing.

[Captain Hate]

In fairness to Kitty Dukakis, who wouldn't be as big a drunk as Joan Kennedy if married to somebody like Mike.

[Captain Hate]

Mental midget talks to real one:

http://tammybruce.com/2015/07/potus-on-jon-stewart-show-our-liar-in-chief-strikes-again.html

Btw, Tammy Bruce wants Fiorina in the debates.

[Captain Hate]

It would (will) be nice to get Virginia back in the R column.

Does anybody think this will happen?

[Captain Hate]

Shocking that the Children of the Cornhole are enamored with the Preacher:

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/122339/john-kasichs-compassionate-christianity-could-raise-hell-gop?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=TNR%20Daily%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=Daily%20Newsletter%20-%207%2F22%2F15

[narciso]

I was trying to find matchups with red queen, at this time in the last cycle,

http://www.gallup.com/poll/102277/Gallup-Election-Review-October-2007.aspx

[narciso]

just put a stake through her now,

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2014/07/new_conservative_idea_monthly_dont_kill_your_baby_payments.html

[Appalled]

Since TM is posting like the old days, I thought I'd remind him of a post from the old days. which is not OT. Which feels remarkably contemporary:

http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2005/03/resistance_is_f.html

[narciso]

peter king always helpful, isn't he, back then the trendlines were in her favor, the Congress had turned, the people were buying 'the civil war' carp about Iraq,

[hrtshpdbox]

"Does anybody think this will happen?"

I do (it went R in 2010 and 2014, didn't it?). I think VA is pretty essential to a GOP victory in '16, which I'm confident will happen.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--So Perot drew from both camps.--

Not sure how accurately it could be measured but how many only voted the straight Hand Grenade ticket and weren't drawn from either camp?

[narciso]

yes Senator Gillespie confirms that notion,

[narciso]

red queen is the answer to a question no one was asking, if she did an oil change, the car would catch fire, like most of North Africa, if she was a valet, the car would be heisted, like the crew in ferris bueller, the reset, of course, she would share the proceeds from the chopshop, like high end bunko artists,

[Captain Hate]

I only have anecdotal info on Perot supporters but the ones I knew were conservatives who were turned off by the Bush squishiness.

[Captain Hate]

The ewok gets it as long as he doesn't wade into the comments and get scorched:

http://acecomments.mu.nu/?post=358012

[narciso]

speaking of bunko artists, Sutton of Sutton/Dillinger was on Bartiromo's show, touting the wonders of his scam, ahem piece of legislation,

[hrtshpdbox]

Gillespie sort of does confirm that notion, considering that Gillespie overcame trailing in the polls by double digits to almost pull out the win.