Assad Must Go... If That's OK With Putin And Assad

The Ties has several pieces on the Middle East maneuverings of our Nobel Peace Prize Laureate and his Laureate-in-Waiting. Let's start with the bad news:

New Diplomacy Seen on U.S.-Russian Efforts to End Syrian Civil War

BEIRUT, Lebanon — With President Bashar al-Assad of Syria facing battlefield setbacks, diplomats from Russia, the United States and several Middle Eastern powers are engaged in a burst of diplomatic activity, trying to head off a deeper collapse of the country that could further strengthen the militant group Islamic State.

The Russians seem to be driving this:

Russia has played the most prominent public role so far in the new diplomacy. Some analysts say that the discussion reflects a softening of the Obama administration’s long-held position that “Assad must go,” and a fear, shared with Russia, that the Islamic State could be the primary beneficiary if Mr. Assad’s government continues to weaken, as they expect, or even to collapse entirely, which they view as less likely but increasingly possible.

...

Mr. Assad’s opponents, too, have reason to reassess strategy; American efforts to build a proxy force in Syria have largely failed, insurgent groups have their own attrition problems, and Saudi Arabia and Turkey face political and security blowback at home.

As the military situation continues to deteriorate, the major powers are growing increasingly nervous. Emile Hokayem, a Middle East analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies and a vociferous critic of Mr. Assad, said the United States was letting Russia take the lead because “they don’t want to own this.” If anything, Mr. Hokayem added, “it’s the United States that has moved closer to Russia’s position” that Mr. Assad could be part of the transitional government that is the stated goal of any negotiations.

Our only reassurance is that both Obama and Kerry are three-dimensional geniuses. Obama didn't want to arm the moderate rebels a few years ago when there may have been some, he mocked ISIS as the "junior varsity", he drew red lines in Syria he wouldn't enforce, he insisted there was no linkage between Putin's adventurism in the Ukraine and the getting Putin to help with the debacle in Syria, and now he is flipping the keys to... Putin. Geez, if only Hillary were still at State to reset the reset with Russia.

Well, on to the worse news. Set aside my lost confidence in team Obama and let's hear from the NY Times editorial board:

Who Threatens America Most?

In what order does the Obama administration rank the biggest external threats to America’s national security? The short answer: It depends on whom and which agency you ask.

Official opinion is all over the lot, a sign of a rapidly changing world, different bureaucratic priorities and confused thinking. Which raises this question: If officials cannot agree on what the most pressing threats are, how can they develop the right strategies and properly allocate resources?

i have lost my confidence and they have lost their pom-poms. Scary!

And as an illustration of the complexities and subtleties vexing our nuanced leadership, the Times explains why Turkey announced greater cooperation with the US against ISIS and then promptly attacked the only group in Syria that seems to be able to work with the US to battle ISIS.

It has been obvious for years that the Kurds intended to carve out an enclave bordering Turkey in Iraq and, since opportunity has knocked, Syria. It has also been obvious that the Turks were choking on this. One might have hoped that our new arrangement with Turkey would have addressed this, but apparently not.

 

Comments

[Cispigmented Heteronormative Microagressive Ignatz]

There are two constants in the Middle East;
1. Misery and;
2. The Kurds will be kicked around by whoever their neighbors are.

[sbwaters]

Kilroy was here!

[sbwaters]

Rats! Two, not one.

[sbwaters]

rse: Inclusive Economic Institutions

What is not to like about centralize and enslave?

[Appalled]

Well, Tom, it's pretty obvious there is a lot of trouble in that confounded Middle East. And that's what makes Obama's Iran deal so genius, in the eyes of Progressives. Because every Progressive knows there are only two ways to solve a problem -- throw money at it, or regulate it ineffectively. And, hey, the Iran deal does both!!

No wonder, DublinDave has been so happy lately...

[Water, water, everywhere?]

I knew a retired math teacher named Elvis Presley, once. He market gardened a small plot. He said he learned to garden from Syrians.

[henry]

Well, if the players in the ME keep blowing up their power plants, they won't be bothering the sky dragon. So there's that.

[maryrose]

Yea
A new thread
Thank you TM
More fecklessness from Hussein Obama
Instead postponing his vacation on Martha's Vineyard to figure out how to save Syria from ISIS he is speed dialing Dems to support his asinine Iran deal
By the way no one seems to call it ISIL because they know Kerry and Obama are useless

[rse]

Continuing the travelogue with rocco-we took the kids to New Brunswick to see the reversing falls in st john and up to st andrews and out on bay of fundy where the whales come up by the boat.

The best though was Hopewell Rocks and seeing it one day covered and the other day hiking on it. We stayed at a b&b in country that rehabbed injured horses in addition to training them. The kids got to see them swimming in the lake there.

We had gone into town for dinner and were driving back and saw a black flash in road and then the worst smell EVER. We all started laughing at once because even though none of us had smelled a skunk before, that simply had to be what we had seen and then almost immediately smelled.

I have tried to get families to do nb, but people like to go where friends have already gone and where others recognize it as special. Great place though.

[maryrose]

Send Hillary
Didn't she once call Assad a compromiser

[rse]

porch-page 108 of the doc from previous thread is about austin.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Quote from above:
In what order does the Obama administration rank the biggest external threats to America’s national security? The short answer: It depends on whom and which agency you ask...If officials cannot agree on what the most pressing threats are...

And from the editorial:

Start with America’s military establishment. Last month, the Pentagon put Russia at the top of its threat list. Gen. Joseph Dunford Jr., the incoming chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, branded Russia the No. 1 “existential threat” in his confirmation hearings, followed by North Korea, China and the Islamic State, or ISIS. Other top military officials have said much the same thing in testimony before Congress.

There is no doubt that relations with Russia have taken a dangerous turn, given Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and reckless exercises over NATO airspace.

The editors do discuss other threats like ISIS, but they largely do not challenge the military establishment for their assessment. Which stands in contrast to days gone by...

From an editorial in March of 2012, the opening a closing graphs:

Two decades after the end of the cold war, Mitt Romney still considers Russia to be America’s “No. 1 geopolitical foe.” His comments display either a shocking lack of knowledge about international affairs or just craven politics. Either way, they are reckless and unworthy of a major presidential contender.
...
There are real threats out there: Al Qaeda and its imitators, Iran, North Korea, economic stresses. Mr. Romney owes Americans a discussion of the real challenges facing this country and his solutions to them.

Ah, well, it's the NY Times. Whaddaya¯\_(ツ)_/¯gonnado?

[Jane]

Hey TM and Hit, how about a Hillary server thread?

[A fine, faint, flavor.]

Pipa, the Skunk.

[Neo]

The real problem now is Turkey, who doesn't want the Kurds to have any power.

The recent announcement that Incirlik Air Base will be open for further US operations has everybody shaking their heads and asking if Obama has now turned on the Kurds.

[narciso]

no a reformer,

are they idiots. rhetorical, 'the army of conquest' is getting the job done,

[jimmyk on iPhone]

So it's Romney's fault Russia is a big threat. If he had just kept quiet, the sleeping bear wouldn't have awakened.

[narciso]

the fellow in the steinhauer novella, is carrying the administration line, there's an irony in that.

[henry]

From our Chicago lurk unit: big explosion in China. Gas station? something else?

[narciso]

right scoop had gen. flynn on aljazeera, yes I know, explaining 'the play by play' in the intramural round,

[narciso]

what's the point, really,

http://israelmatzav.blogspot.com/2015/08/gary-samore-resigns-as-chairman-of.html

[henry]

Video of explosion in Tianjin China. Big explosion.

[Porchlight]

Thanks, rse!

[Jim Eagle]

NORK missile failure?

[narciso]

on Tyrant which is the fictional analog, the brother who was the Bashir analog, who Basil, who inherited the throne, is none the less fighting the Caliphate, and yet his own brother, who exiled him to the wastelands, doesn't realize this,

[MarkO on laptop pretending to listen]

Sorry, but I just can't seem to find the "true" Brady thread.

This is breaking news:

Michael McCann ‏@McCannSportsLaw · 50m50 minutes ago

Michael McCann retweeted Christopher Price

NFL's argument seems to be: the evidence doesn't matter, it's whether we could punish Brady. Does that convince you?

[Jeff Dobbs]

So Jeb is gonna be on the inaugural Stephen Colbert show in September.

I can't even tell you how exciting this is because of how exicted my excitement has excitedly overtaken me.

[Thomas Collins]

Petrochemical plant explosion?

MarkO, I suspect something got lost in the retwetranslation. I suspect the NFL simply told Judge Berman that the settlement hangup is that Brady won't accept the Wells report. I doubt the NFL's lawyers are so stupid as to suggest to Judge Berman that the evidence doesn't matter.

[squaredance]

J Dobbs: You forgot to squeeze in "unexpectedly" into that sentence.

[Some Guy]

I doubt the NFL's lawyers are so stupid as to suggest to Judge Berman that the evidence doesn't matter.

They appeared to come close. Nash getting uncomfortable with the question of direct evidence, shifted to 'the CBA allows us'.

[narciso]

he's a warlock, clearly he floats, I mean need we say more?

[Jeff Dobbs]

The Full Vizzini:

"It has been a long time since we've had a very thin-skinned person in the White House."
--stuff former Obama WH economist Austan Goolsbee said of Trump

[Jeff Dobbs]

dance²:
You forgot to squeeze in "unexpectedly" into that sentence.

Heh. Yeah, my excitement did take my by surprise.

[narciso]

he might as well have been speaking in sanskrit,

http://therightscoop.com/wisdom-is-much-more-important-than-political-experience-ben-carson-bewilders-cbs-anchors/

[Thomas Collins]

Circumstantial evidence is often more persuasive than what is considered direct evidence, Some Guy. However, in this case, the NFL is going to be relying on deference to the arbitration process that the NFLPA agreed to. I don't think Judge Berman was BSing the parties when he indicated that he could rule either way. This is a close case, in my view.

[Rick Ballard]

Ace highlights Body Snatching Baby Butchers.

A collage of dismembered babies should replace the donkey as the Fascist Party symbol.

[narciso]

again he seems not to have learned the lesson 'of not being seen'

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/08/new-leader-of-islamic-caucasus-emirate-killed-by-russian-forces.php

[MarkO on laptop pretending to listen]

The judge apparently mused that he'd like to know "what the heck" "general awareness" was.

In order to meet minimal due process, there must be substantial evidence to support the award.

The League seems to be suggesting the so long as Goodell believes something that's sufficient.

The Judge is telling him it's not.

[MarkO on laptop pretending to listen]

Exactly, SG.

[narciso]

it's so much of a travisham, Cardinal Fang should just step in now,

[narciso]

the problem is the sunnis have always been the more brutal party in iraq, in syria it's the alawites,

[maryrose]

Can the NFL punish Brady
Do they sign his paychecks. Brady is the quarterback who won the game illegall
He'll be lucky to get off with a one game suspension
Anything. Else smacks of no consequences of cheating

[derwill]

rse, our black lab chased a skunk the other night when I let him out for his bedtime constitutional. Was out there with the hose and a bucket of Anti-Icky Poo at eleven at night washing the stink off.

That's the real name of a great product, btw. Miss M, you might look into it, as it does a great job on the residue left by pet pee and poop. It was developed for crime scene clean-up crews. Available on Amazon.

[Some Guy]

Jeff,

I'll defer answering TC's post if a new Framegate thread is started.

Balls!

[Thomas Collins]

Does anyone know whether this is an accurate summary of what Kessler said re ball deflation?

https://mobile.twitter.com/PPVSRB/status/631501948332736513

[maryrose]

Is the judge a Patriots fan
We in flyover country know that if the pats skate then the sport itself has been compromised
Of course the judge should then attend each game and supervise the inflation of the footballs

[narciso]

just gets curiouser and curioser:

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/08/12/judge-berman-grills-nfl-on-proof-of-brady-knowing-about-deflated-footballs/

[Thomas Collins]

Did Kessler impliedly concede that Mac deflated the balls, or is that Twitter thread an inaccurate summary?

[Janet]

So Jeb is gonna be on the inaugural Stephen Colbert show in September.

Why don't the Dems nominate Jeb as THEIR candidate?...they seem to be the ones all excited about him.

[MarkO on laptop pretending to listen]

There is absolutely no evidence that the psi in a football made any difference in the game.

The NFL can enforce its rules. It can punish players. It requires actual evidence.

[Some Guy]

Did Kessler impliedly concede that Mac deflated the balls, or is that Twitter thread an inaccurate summary?

I believe Kessler categorically stated that the NFLPA position is that there was no deflation, but in response to the judge's question conceded there was 'a certain' logic that Mac could have done this on his own because he thought it would help his QB.

[Jeff Dobbs]

SG:
I'll defer answering TC's post if a new Framegate thread is started.

I'd consider bumping the last one to just behind this one (that one will close to comments at 6PM today). I most likely won't start a new one.

But it's a TM thread. Not my call if y'all want to use this one.....go for it!

[Thomas Collins]

More on what Kessler said.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PPVSRB/status/631502219888558080

I realize most of the NFLPA's arguments don't really depend on whether Mac actually deflated the balls. Still, I'm surprised that Kessler didn't hedge his answer more. But Twitter doesn't have Kessler's complete remarks.

[MarkO on laptop pretending to listen]

Kessler is reported to have denied there was any deflation.

[Dave (in MA)]

https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtf1/v/t1.0-9/11885155_1189356041090514_7883213738890882556_n.jpg?oh=e3ed9a091d8456729c277ae7568f2e77&oe=564273E0

One of these crayon scribblings is supposed to be Brady.

[Some Guy]

"Circumstantial evidence is often more persuasive than what is considered direct evidence, "

There is only circumstantial evidence that perhaps Jas and Mac were the deflation boys, however the circumstantial evidence to support Goodell's newly invented "approved of, consented to, and provided inducements in support of . . . a scheme to tamper with the game balls" is so thin it isn't surprising the NFL wants to change the subject.

However, in this case, the NFL is going to be relying on deference to the arbitration process that the NFLPA agreed to.

Of course. Brady only had a 5-10% going in against that deference.

I don't think Judge Berman was BSing the parties when he indicated that he could rule either way.

Perhaps, but he may also have told the NFL (if they are smart enough to listen) that Brady will get injunctive relief if they don't settle when he told them this will drag into 2017.

[MarkO on laptop pretending to listen]

When the Judge asked the meaning of "general awareness" he was telling the NFL it would lose the case.

Goodell has weakened the NFL's position with the union in substantial measure. He will be fired.

[Jane]

Just heard a democrat talking head say Hillary is toast.

Toldya!

[Thomas Collins]

What a thread! Explosion in Red China, Russkies taking over Syria as Iran and ISIS parcel out Iraq, PSI deflation and toasted Hillary!

[henry]

TC, Ukraine artillery toss back in action as well.

[Some Guy]

Goodell has weakened the NFL's position with the union in substantial measure. He will be fired.

It does raise the question of why the NFL has chosen this particular hill to die on.

It's similar to Trayvon or Ferguson, makes you ask yourself, "these are the best examples you can come up with?" Then you watch and see that they are depending on the fact that people will prove themselves immune to evidence.

[maryrose]

Marko
So we accept as gospel that deflation never occurred because Kessler says so and McNally denies
The footballs didn't deflate themselves
The game is tainted because it was played with defective equipment
Play the game over was the logical remedy at the time but of course the Pats couldn't risk that logical settlement

[Some Guy]

I also think it is telling that Berman is giving Goodell no deference on the fact finding itself, rather than focus narrowly on process.

[maryrose]

Marko
Deflated balls is a preference of Brady's in football games but there is not a Smidgen of evidence that anyone helped fulfill his wishes after he pointedly stated his preference
Free Grappola an honest quarterback and give him a chance to dethrone
I can draw parallels between Hillary and Brady
Both think they can't be touched

[MarkO on laptop pretending to listen]

SG, in my experience, that is exactly how it works. The award is due deference only if it is supported by substantial, credible evidence.

No, maryrose, not on Kessler. On the record. The Colts could have played the Pats 70 times and not won a single game.

They had no defense. Brady played better in the second half with inflated balls.

[Some Guy]

The footballs didn't deflate themselves

Yet the Colts balls unequivocally did just that.

So maryrose, did the Colts cheat?

[jimmyk on iPhone]

I think we need another Brady thread.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Hmmm, undecided; pray for the return of the endless DoT-TK imbroglio or go poke myself in the eye with a sharp stick.

[Thomas Collins]

I'm going to wait for the transcript before I am going to conclude that Berman is telling the NFL they could lose on fact finding as well as process.

Ukraine too! Thanks, henry. By the way, as a follow up to our conversation a couple of months ago, youngest has decided on Yale for public health school. She is in South Dakota moving out of her place and cleaning up loose ends there, and will be driving to New Haven. She bought furniture from another Yale student, who needs to get the furniture out next Saturday (when youngest will be far from New Haven). Guess who is meeting the movers and making sure the furniture ends up in the right place? Mom and Dad, of course! Well, her brother is also helping.

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

Yeeaargh was polishing his standup routine on the intern killer; the audience, including Norma Desmond, were sitting on their hands if not calling for the hook.

[maryrose]

The Colts were brave enough to bring this cheating to the attention of the officials and the NFL
Why would Goodell make a case against Brady if he didn't suspect some wrongdoing had occurred
If Brady gets away with this look for further behavior to try to spy on other teams or take out rival players
That's what happens when real consequences for illegal behavior are voided

[maryrose]

TC
The job of parents is eternal and lucky for the kids that remains true

[narciso]

And when you've lost morning joke, time to go back to clown college.

[maryrose]

Iggy
You are one the funniest guys on this blog

[henry]

TC, SD to New Haven? That's a long drive! Right past me, our Chicago lurker, Capt H, etc. Hopefully her car is in good shape!

[maryrose]

Marko
If they were so sure they could beat them why not an immediate do over before the SuperBowl
The team is not infallible
Only the Pope can be that

[narciso]

The only interesting thing about this, well besides hating Goodell are standards of evidence, something that seems to have gone by the wayside in journalism, no seriously as well as law.

[Rocco]

rse...it was a great experience for me although we didn't get a chance to do much sightseeing. Your dad must have been a brave man to hunt grizzly. I'd probably have a heart attack just seeing one in the woods. What I didn't know at the time, according to our guide anyway, is that bear meat is horrendous so I can't see myself harvesting an animal unless it's going to be consumed. Thanks for the great stories.

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

Augusta National should revoke Goodell's membership.

[maryrose]

Why were Jaszmerski and McNally fired
Will Berman reinstate them
Otherwise it looks like 2 two flunkies are taking the fall instead of Brady

[Jane]

Hillary is toast!!!

[maryrose]

Let Brady get injunctive relief if he's so sure nothing hinky occurred

[matt]

We sent half a dozen F-16's to Incirlik from Aviano so that we can whack a mole with Local FAQ's, several of whom have been captured and their gear most likely compromised.

So now we have the possibility of ISIS directing air strikes on their enemies using our planes.

The Turks are bombing those dastardly Kurds, probably the most civilized of anyone in that neck of the woods, and Rooshia is brokering some sort of deal with Assad.

Obama is they guy who ripped his pants up the backside and eveyone knows it but him. He can't even feel the breeze on his man parts because they are

a - so small

and

b - he's clueless

His former SoS is running a real risk of indictment not on Benghazi, but for criminally mis-handling classified material. She was probably one of the links into the back door of the State Department servers.

20,000,000 federal personnel records are now resident on Chinese servers and Wang Dang Doodle just changed his ID to Raymond S. Odierno, eyeball scan and all.

Maybe we can outsource Lois Lerner's department to the People's 3rd Cyber Strike Force. They would probably do a better job at a 60% discount. If they can understand an abacus they can probably understand our tax code. That would be a step forward.

[maryrose]

Jane any new info on that
The State rep was. Stumbling all over the place
Brady has 7 attorneys Looks guilty to me Brought up destruction of cellphone
Goodell can punish him if he wants
Negotiating going on behind closed doors Judge hopes settlement can be reached
Optics look bad for Brady not willing to take any responsibilty

[henry]

More fuel for the um fire, green fuel, red witch scamming the military.

Our lurking friend thinks this is coming from 1600

[Some Guy]

The one thing the NFL doesn't want to happen is for Judge Berman to actually read the Wells Report.

[GUS]

Big EXPLOSION in China.

Daddy, NEVER EAT THAI FOOD in CHINA.

4 WORDS DADDY. PEP TOE BIZZ MALL.

[maryrose]

Union throwing g their weight around
They did such a great job with Ray Rice

[narciso]

The Saudis bomb Yemen almost as a matter of course, the first time in the 60s was against nasser, it was a footnote in the Odessa files.

[Jack is Back!]

New thread.

Matt, what is your source for two captured/killed FACs?

[clarice]

From prior thread:Charles Lipson
HILLARY: MISUNDERESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF THE EMAILS
The political class is seriously underestimating the impact of the email controversy because they are seeing it solely through an electoral politics lens (where it has been damaging and cumulative, but not fatal). Or they have been think about Trey Gowdy's committee--again political. But the potentially fatal danger to Hillary is LEGAL, as it was to Nixon. The central feature of a government-of-laws is that, once an issue enters the realm of courts, judges, and criminal investigators, there is an inexorable logic that is hard to block politically. Now that the FBI has the server, the CIA and other intelligence agencies will go over everything and identify classified materials. I expect that hundreds of documents will include top-secret information. Whether or not it was classified at the time it was sent, it may well have been classified while it was still sitting on an unsecured server, or sitting on thumb drives in a lawyer's office. The intelligence community normally seeks a felony prosecution for that. The DOJ may not, given the politics, but, if the FBI makes a finding of fact that lots of classified material was on the server, FBI Director Comey will probably recommend criminal charges. Even if the DOJ turns it down, the recommendation itself would be leaked (by the intelligence community) and would be fatal to Clinton politically (since the DOJ's action would be seen as a political cover-up). The erasure of the hard drive could also expose Sec. Clinton to charges of a cover-up.

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

The biggest disappointment in this whole Deflategate fiasco is how Patriot fans continue to blindly support Brady's complete innocence while the rest of us readily admit that King Roger is a worthless pile who has completely botched this whole thing.

[matt]

Biofuel is incredibly expensive and incredibly wasteful. It really is a Mad Max, apocalyptic end of the world alternative, but since Slick Willie, Algore and the others are part of the daisy chain it's the best idea ever!

Consider that regular gasoline cost $150/gallon when it finally landed at a COP in Afghanistan and imagine doubling that cost is some hellhole elsewhere.

This is how cuckoo these people are. There are no grown ups in the whole damned government.

[Some Guy]

blindly support Brady's complete innocence

Since the evidence and the science leads a neutral party there, I wouldn't call it "blind", but we should all agree on your later point.

[maryrose]

Hillarys decision to hang onto her server for 5 months looks like a huge error. I hope as Jane has stated she is toast
V

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

So Brady knows all the chemicals put on the balls and how that's done but nothing about how much it's allowed to be inflated? Ok I'm convinced...

[maryrose]

Sheinkopf on Fox Business says Bernie has to sustain his lead in NH
Marshall a Hillary shill says Pierce Poll is an outlier

[Jane]

Maryrose,

Would you take responsibility for something you didn't do so you wouldn't look bad?

[Appalled]

Jane:

Hillary should be toast.

But nobody is going to say the empress has no clothes. Nobody is going to want even visualize something like that...

In fact, in certain circles, this is likely a microagression.

[Some Guy]

"So Brady knows all the chemicals put on the balls and how that's done but nothing about how much it's allowed to be inflated?"

What on earth? Where do you get that?

It's already been made very clear that Brady was aware of the 12.5 - 13.5 rule and that he even asked that the rules be shown to the officials before each game (due to the Jets 16psi ball situation).

Which btw, should stop everyone in their tracks.

If you are involved in an ongoing conspiracy to deflate balls below the legal limit, why would take steps to make sure the officials see THAT rule before every game?