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September 18, 2015

Comments

sbw

OL, FRED has a graph on the velocity of M2.

henry

The St Louis Fed has the graphs her Eyes.

Yes, it does look low.

henry

here. Stupid autocorrect.

BB

Carly Fiorina commercial...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2lDIHyqo7Q

Old Lurker

sbw...that graph uses M2 as the bottom of the fraction which is what a lot of people use to measure the "quantity of money out there". Since the graph solves for Velocity, what it means is still dependant on whether the change stems from growing or shrinking transactions (economic activity) on the top, or growing or shrinking money in existence on the bottom. Or both at the same time of course.

I am not even an economist but see, I am good at not answering your underlying question.

narciso

The dolguruki will not be pleased, re the latest CNN poll.

Old Lurker

sbw...but even without knowing what I am talking about, since I believe we are doomed, my guess is your graph is bad news...

:-)

Old Lurker

sbw...try this one:

http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-01-17/the-recovery-and-the-speed-of-money

narciso

Der untergang, autocorrect is quite provincial in places.

Beasts of England

I don't have a mnemonic device for the bottom part of the fraction thingie, but I believe it's the denominator. :)

Old Lurker

:-) Beasts.

sbw is a writer guy so I thought I should ease into it.

Captain Hate on the iPad

Sorry about that loss, Beasts.

narc, or anyone else, are you familiar with the late Serbian writer, Danilo Kis? I first became aware of him through a Penguin collection in the late seventies edited by Philip Roth, Writers From the Other Europe which was a collection of work from behind the Iron Curtain. The work by Kis in the collection, A Tomb for Boris Davidovich, was distinctive by its short Borgesian vignettes that were fiction written as if it were a factual accounting. William Vollman's Europe Central was dedicated to him and written in a similar manner although very different stylistically.

Recently I read an earlier work, Garden, Ashes, which was obviously autobiographical about growing up as a Jew in Yugoslavia in WW2, but much more free flowing in narrative style. Although it wasn't bad I didn't enjoy it nearly as much as what I'd read previously. I just finished "Early Sorrows: For Children and Sensitive Readers" which covers the same ground but is divided into short fanciful chapters/short stories which are much more effective. It ends with a short autobiographical narration of his life (at least I think it is) which puts everything previously read into context. Just a very uniquely effective and haunting writer.

narciso

So did he Hewitt explain how he became an avox in this round of the quells.

Captain Hate on the iPad

The money supply in the Oconomy is surely not shrinking so a reduction in velocity can't be a good thing.

Carly is being interviewed by Chwis Wallace on Rove News Sunday, who is trying to trip her up. I'm pretty sure Wallace will be copiously bleeding from the rectum after this.

Captain Hate on the iPad

Carly just called Wallace out for buying into the lie about the PP videos. Wallace talks about how great PP is and Carly says fuck that shit.

Jane

Hey James! Happy Birthday!

Captain Hate on the iPad

Carly says the last shutdown didn't hurt the Repubs and anyone claiming otherwise is a mewling quim. Ailes and Rove must be praying at the porcelain. Wallace tries to trip her up on HP and she just kicked his nuts into his throat.

Beasts of England

I caught a quick moment of the Greek Midget haranguing Trump about Imam Obama's religion and it was very much enworsening my mood. Trump could have picked up even more steam by telling off that repugnant prick and reminding everyone of his conflicts of interest in this campaign. Sheesh.

Captain Hate on the iPad

Wallace tried to trip her up on HP's sales to Iran and she answered them all very effectively. This isn't an inarticulate dirty dishrag like Rodham.

Beasts of England

I almost feel sorry for Chwis. He's light years out of his element tangling with Carly the Magnificent.

narciso

Well remember he was in the same braintrust with andrea, about how Reagan got too easy a treatment.

anonamom

deb, here's what Zach Beauchamp made up

http://freebeacon.com/blog/in-praise-of-vox-media-max-fisher-and-zack-beauchamp/

Captain Hate on the iPad

Panel time on Trump handling the question. Hume: it won't hurt him with his fans but probably with others. Rove: Trump's decline has begun just like my whiteboard said. Charles Lane: Dondi is well positioned unlike Jeb. Kirsten Power: Biden has to fish or cut bait. Sanders has limited appeal beyond these early retard states. Rodham is a stumbling idiot.

anonamom

Rather telling that I can find out a journalist was lying when it wasn't even the person Deb meant to refer to!

clarice

Thanks for sparing us, CH.

Centralcal on iPad

Clarice is always my first read, Sunday morning. Captain Hate is my second read.

I love Sunday mornings.

narciso

And he's a product of Georgetown and the lse, comforting no?

anonamom

Beasts, sorry about last night's loss. I share your pain--10-15-05, a day that will live in infamy.

And Beasts, I hope you were kidding about the drunk hangover. We are too old for that. Too smart for that. Too likely to develop cirrhosis and die a really yucky death for that.

I missed you so much when you were gone. Take good care of yourself.

Jane

Oh dear, Hillary on Face the Nation, and it was her idea to train the Syrians, and it's too bad they didn't take her advice. (Maybe she wanted to spend a billion not $500 million).

She says first we have to figure out what Russia is doing. (Ya think? Why is it you don't know?) Then she threatens Russia. Putin laughs.

She says the war in Iraq was a mistake and the host doesn't bother to remind her she voted for it.

He plays the 3AM ad. Asks if Benghazi was her 3AM ad. She says it's a dangerous world. No worry - and reminds us of Beirut under Reagan.

(You guys can pay me later for enduring this)

Captain Hate on the iPad

Wallace interviewed Cardinal Wuerl and some other church leader about Pope Che's upcoming visit. Hopefully they'll perform an exorcism on Chris.

narciso

Its the Dickerson whelp of couse he"s not going to point that out.

Beasts of England

I'm certainly too old for that, anonamom, but it's not a regular occurance by any stretch. And that's the nice thing about hangovers - they're a good incentive to moderate all things. And I do appreciate your concern. :)

Captain Hate on the iPad

Father Rosica from the Vatican is defending everything Che has said.

Jane

"We have learned after Benghazi".

The host licks her toes. Hillary says the video allegations are not fair. She says she said they were attacked. The video thing was all over social media. She has to call Tunis - that's how hard she was working. She never felt political pressure about the video.

Re: personal server: what went well? (are you kidding)

It was allowed, above board and I am transparent. I've done everything and I am perfect.

Tell us about trust and transparency. You held on for a long time.

"It wasn't that long" We decided to help the state department. I was soooo comprehensive.

It wasn't the best choice but they already had them.

Jane

What are you sorry for and to whom?

I'm sorry I made a choice. We did a lot of important work, and I want that to be the focus. (So clearly she is not sorry)

Why did no one tell you this was a bad idea.

Oh everyone does this. It's not big deal. It was allowed and above board and I am the most transparent person ever!

Captain Hate on the iPad

Rosica praises 404 for the many non idiots invited to the reception.

Buckeye

If it is any consulation Beasts, I thought 'Bama looked better than Ahia State yesterday.

anonamom

Jane, I'm pretty sure you shall be assumed bodily into heaven when you die for doing this for us today.

I WANT to watch Carly rip up Chris Wallace though--hope I can find it online.

Beasts--thanks for the report. Have a friend who was just diagnosed. And sadly barely drinks; just fat. And not even that fat!

Jane

More Hillary:

Trump did the wrong thing. He is fueling a level of paranoia and prejudice. It's all a conspiracy and appalling.

Don't care which republican I run against.

Not preparing for Joe Biden, give him space.

Will you pledge to not attack Bernie Sanders?

No pledge, no interest.

I want to continue the policies of my husband and Obama.

Let's get beyond Obamacare. It's great. I will address the problems.

I've seen excepts from PP videos. I'm troubled by the misleading republicans. PP is great.

What was your reaction to the videos?

They were misleadingly edited. So she had no reaction.

Do you support a federal limit on abortion at an time in pregnancy? Late term abortions are only for medical reasons and the government shouldn't get involved. (LOLOLOLOLOLOL)

I can't imagine anyone being more of an outsider than the first woman president? So the outsider thing is no problem.

Jane

No worries, it was Bush's fault and my economic policy is great. Why would we go back to Bush?

Wall St must be put on notice: Donate to me or you are going down!

The real Hillary CLinton: I am a real person with all the plusses and minuses and on and on and on and she goes shopping.

Cackling prevails.

Captain Hate on the iPad

Panel on the joke of Syrian training. Hume: this is what happens when the US doesn't lead. Powers: the alibis are embarrassing. Rove: 404 has let the Rooskis back in the ME. ISIS doesn't have an Air Force so the air defense system is against the U.S. Lane: 404 has done horribly.

And that's a wrap.

Captain Hate on the iPad

Anonamom, Rove News Sunday has a website where you can watch it online later.

Miss Marple

Thanks to Captain Hate and Jane for covering the interviews. I will watch the rerun to see Wallace defeated by Carly this afternoon.

Jane had the harder job today, though. I cannot listen to those lies without endangering my TV. Thanks, Jane!

sbw

Jane, what sedatives are you on that you didn’t punch out your screen? I want some of those.

Captain Hate on the iPad

Oh dear God, an exclusive interview with Jeb next week.

And that's really a wrap. Time to walk Teddy.

anonamom

A new college for Alaska

http://sitkacollege.org/

One of my children was at Deep Springs, the existing college based on this philosophy.

sbw

Oh, Jane? My wife is the scheduler, be we will be in Naples briefly in November and more leisurely in, I think, February.

Jeff Dobbs

CH:
Do any of you use Spotify? I found out about it by accident when I was curious about what something difficult to find sounded like. I was extremely leery about adding yet another icon on my iPad but this has been great. I can listen to complete albums for the slight irritation of enduring a few ads.

I use it and love it. Run it on the laptop when I'm sitting out on the deck. Didn't install anything, just get to it through the browser. I like picking an artist and just letting it run through multiple albums.

Nothing more fun than doing it with the Gourds!

Beasts of England

At the risk of bragging, as I push 54 years old, I'm only two short of a six pack in the ab department, and I hope to knock the last two out before the end of the year, anonamom!

Five turnovers in a game of that magnitude overwhelms any hope of finding a sliver lining, Buckeye. I didn't expect us to be in the running for the playoffs this year, but I hate to give it away, just the same.

Jeff Dobbs

HAPPY BIRTHDAY JAMES D!!!

HAPPY BIRTHDAY CENTRALCAL!!!

clarice

HB CC and James D.

For Brady fans and PC opponentshttp://southpark.cc.com/full-episodes/s19e01-stunning-and-brave#source=2b6c5ab4-d717-4e84-9143-918793a3b636:63a32034-1ea6-492d-b95b-9433e3f62f8d&position=1&sort=airdate

Rick Ballard

" ISIS doesn't have an Air Force so the air defense system is against the U.S."

Not with the US being lead from BOzo's behind. Israel has been operating in Syria on a regular basis and deployment of Russian air defense systems provides an opportunity for the training of Persian technicians under live fire conditions. I'm sure Putin is hoping a very nice chunk of the $150 billion BOzo is releasing to Persia will wind up in Moscow.

Miss Marple

http://www.timesofisrael.com/egyptian-army-begins-flooding-gaza-tunnels/

Jane

I'll be there SBW. can't wait to see you both!

Beasts of England

re: Spotify - I absolutely love it! Not only will it use its algorithms to automatically develop a custom 'station' for an individual band, but it will do the same from an individual song. I use it on the boat constantly - can't say enough good things about it.

Jane

CC - it's your birthday too? WOW what a great day! Happy Birthday!

Beasts of England

Happy Birthday, James D.!!

Happy Birthday, centralcal!!

Miss Marple

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/crime/cyclist-participating-in-charity-ride-dies-in-collision-with-car/2015/09/19/ed04a6ec-5f2f-11e5-9757-e49273f05f65_story.html?postshare=6471442761704567

He was in the office of Science and Technology.

Rick Ballard

Happy Birthday, centralcal and JamesD.!!

Centralcal on iPad

Just terrible news today - Mary Katherine Hamm lost her husband yesterday in a charity bicycle accident. She has a young daughter and another baby on the way. Truly tragic for this young family.

Miss Marple

The White House Office of Science and Technology.

Miss Marple

Oh, no!

I didn't realize the accident I posted about was her husband!

How tragic!

Centralcal on iPad

Thanks everyone. An awesome day - I am still here to enjoy it. LOL

Happiest of birthdays to you too, JamesD.

Miss Marple

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3241936/Eiffel-Tower-closed-visitors-terror-suspect-large-rucksack-seen-ascending-France-s-famous-attraction.html

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

Jimmy knows much more about this than me obviously but I'll give it a crack;

The velocity of money is essentially demand for money usually measured by GDP over M2. That demand however is subject to so many variables that it's pretty difficult to determine what it actually means at any given time.
This chart for instance shows us it rose sharply from 1978 to 1981 a time of stagflation and recession, dropped from 1981 to 1983 and then remained largely unchanged through the rest of the 80's.
It rose from 1990 to 1997, a period of moderate growth and then fell from 1997 through 2000 a period of strong growth but continued the decline through 2003 a period of slight recession and then growth.

It's only correlated over the long term with the actual value of money which the chart does demonstrate fairly well. From the late 50s until say 2000 the Fed was relatively conservatively run except for brief periods of inept activity especially in the seventies. That period of relative moderate intervention is obvious and in sharp contrast to the reckless gigantic swings post 1990 or so.

It is impossible to argue the idiotic activist Fed of the last 25 years attempting through its coke bottle glasses and wielding a sledge hammer for its fine tuning has been anything but a disaster.
The economy will always swing like a pendulum but it's funny how people who otherwise scoff at central planning nevertheless happily endorse the most central of central planning; central banks planning how much money an economy needs at any given moment and how much it should "cost" an economy at any given time.

The long steep decline in the velocity of money from about 2000 on reflects the massive interventions the Fed has made in attempting to manipulate the economy and inflating the denominator of the equation. Can anyone seriously argue the economy or the nation as a whole have benefited from it?

henry

Happy Birthday cc & JamesD!!

New thread.

Janet S.

Panel time on Trump handling the question. Hume: it won't hurt him with his fans but probably with others.

That attitude kills me too. MFM always looking for things that will drive away support for ANY Republicans.
Amplifying things & then asking - Do you hate him/her NOW?
How about NOW?
Okay...listen to this!...How about NOW?
Don't you hate him/her, like we do, NOW?

Candidate loyalty is considered a negative for Republican voters. It shows that they are stupid.

Candidate loyalty for Dems - no matter how lousy the Dem. is, or how corrupt they are, or how crap their policies are - is considered wonderful. The LOVELY UTOPIAN DREAM is what is important.


Lots of love to you & Happy Birthday, Centralcal & JamesD!!!!!!

anonamom

Ig--hear, hear!

Old Lurker

new thread

Captain Hate on the iPad

Thanks for the Spotify feedback, Jeff and Beasts.

Good points, Rick; I guess all that is hard to fit on a white board.

HB cc and JD

Jane

Oh I am so sorry about MK Hamm. She was on the Alaska cruise. She is a wonderful woman. That is just awful.

Jane

Are we sure it is MK Hamm's husband? Odd she would be married to a WH staffer.

Jane

Yup, I see it on twitter.

James D.

Thanks for the birthday wishes!

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