I Blame Credit Climate Change

From one team of hurricane researchers based, for reasons left unclear, in Colorado:

Study: Are We Shifting to Fewer, Weaker Atlantic Hurricanes?

A new but controversial study asks if an end is coming to the busy Atlantic hurricane seasons of recent decades.

The Atlantic looks like it is entering in to a new quieter cycle of storm activity, like in the 1970s and 1980s, two prominent hurricane researchers wrote Monday in the journal Nature Geoscience.

Scientists at Colorado State University, including the professor who pioneered hurricane seasonal prognostication, say they are seeing a localized cooling and salinity level drop in the North Atlantic near Greenland. Those conditions, they theorize, change local weather and ocean patterns and form an on-again, off-again cycle in hurricane activity that they trace back to the late 1800s.

Warmer saltier produces periods of more and stronger storms followed by cooler less salty water triggering a similar period of fewer and weaker hurricanes, the scientists say. The periods last about 25 years, sometimes more, sometimes less. The busy cycle that just ended was one of the shorter ones, perhaps because it was so strong that it ran out of energy, said study lead author Phil Klotzbach.

All very well, but there are skeptics:

``I think they're pretty much wrong about this,'' said MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel, who also specializes in hurricane research. ``That paper is not backed by a lot of evidence.''

Emanuel doesn't believe in the cycle cited by the researchers or the connection to ocean temperature and salinity. He thinks the quiet period of hurricanes of the 1970s and 1980s is connected to sulfur pollution and the busy period that followed is a result of the cleaning of the air. And Jim Kossin of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said cooler water temperatures earlier this year might be due to Atlantic dust, and August temperatures there have risen.

So people talk about acid rain as if it was a bad thing but reducing sulfur pollution may have cost thousands of lives. Who knew?

Comments

[henry]

Is the blizzard forecast center in Miami?

[Catsmeat]

I blame Trump and "tone".

[Sorry, can't evaluate it, but trust him.]

Ryan Maue estimates fewer Atlantic hurricanes and more Pacific ones for a coupla decades.

[narciso]

Bill Gray or Kerry Emmanuel, let me think for a second.

[narciso]

all done:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/06/cambridge-conservative-kerry-emanuel-speaks-out-against-the-anti-science-gop/

[The four horsemen mount.]

On August 30, Judy Curry had a post on hurricanes 10 years post Katrina which is worth a read if you are interested.

She's got a private business doing weather forecasting, at least partly for ocean shippers. She's as expert as they come, and she admits bafflement at the whole mess. Ten years ago she thought ten more years would lead to understanding; now she says she doesn't think another ten years from now will lead to understanding.

Climate is extremely complex. Add in social and energy policy and you get what she calls a 'wicked problem', wicked in a technical sense, not a matter of evil.

Though there is plenty of evil involved.

[narciso]

probably kim, but when you 'inflate' the data, one is misdirecting, like the heat island problem,

[Must be one of those 'e' sorts of GOP.]

Yeah, Kerry Emmanuel is an alarmist loon. And, famously, a Republican.

[Sue]

They know as much as I do. Nada.

[Miss Marple]

Nytol.

[Ryan Maue is a powerhouse.]

Heh, n, I'm in the comment stream for your 2011 link with a pretty plain vanilla comment. Oceanic heat must not have been boiling up inside me that day.

[I've said it all so many times I'm getting sick of it.]

On the blogs, I've directly asked Chris Mooney when he is going to write 'Calm World'. I've also asked him when he's going to write 'The Democrats' War on Science'.

Alarmist blogs have deleted, censored, and edited my work, but one of my favorite jokes is that the best of the skeptical blogs have deleted the best of my work, Judy Curry and Steve McIntyre to name two of my best editors.

[Some effect, yeah, but what?]

One of the things about it that is most offensive is the overly simple idea that CO2 is a climate control knob. No, it ain't.

[narciso]

it was a while, after the climate gate revelations, then again you knew about much of these details, which sounded like 'speaking in tongues' years before,

[Sue]

Watching Hitler's Messiah Complex on AHC. You could almost insert Obama for Hitler if Hitler didn't think God was protecting him.

[Sue]

It's still speaking in tongues to me. I try to read their sites and understand and it doesn't compute. I understand Janet. Unless and until they start acting like its a big deal and walk instead of drive or fly, I'll believe them.

[daddy]

Are We Shifting to Fewer, Weaker Atlantic Hurricanes?

TM,

How can they make any sense of the data when they can't see the forests for the forests?

BBC: Earth's trees number 'three trillion'

The figure is eight times as big as the previous best estimate, which counted perhaps 400 billion at most.

So in one week they discovered that there's 8 times as many Carbon sucking trees on the planet as previously thought. WOW.

Will that make them second guess any of their Global Warming due to carbon predictions? One would think so, unless of course, one were were an AGW Climate propagandist:

But Dr Crowther cautioned that the higher number did not of itself change anything.

He told the BBC's Science In Action programme: "It's not like we've discovered a load of new trees; it's not like we've discovered a load of new carbon.

"So, it's not good news for the world or bad news that we've produced this new number.

So discovering 2 trillion, 600 billion new trees isn't actually discovering "a load of new trees."

OK. Got it. 2,600,000,000,000 = 400,000,000,000.

I guess I just don't have what it takes to be a scientist.

[narciso]

well I'm sufficiently cryptic, buT I was speaking of the Briffa and those other readings in Siberia, data points that didn't prove, what they were said to,

[danoso]

Seems to me if CO2 was a dominant factor in global temperatures we would have gone the way of Venus a long time ago. All these instances in the past where CO2 shot up precipitously yet somehow temperatures stabilized - like other factors were driving this.

[narciso]

things of this nature,

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/yamal2009/

[matt]

But at the same time, daddy, there has been a terrible depredation by those evile humans of tress and we should have lots more.

Maybe we could re-forest the Great Plains or something. I think the Clinton Foundation is working on the Sahara Water Project as well.

Now, if all of the glaciers are melting and all of the trees are gone, shouldn't that mean that there has been some rise in the world's oceans? Just a leetle, maybe?

I cried for those poor Alaskans whose effort to harvest the caribou and kill the whales has become more difficult. That salmon Obama had in is hand was pretty pathetic. Must have been from the A&P. Oh the horror of it all.

[narciso]

that salmon spawning all over obama, reminds me of the Arrakis worm in it's deaththrows when exposed to water,

[Peak lying November in Paris.]

In the ice core record, CO2 rise follows temperature rise by 800 years, on average. The alarmists don't want you to know that.

Yeah, n, you've seen one tree you've seen Yamal. I wish I could claim credit for that one.

[daddy]

Okay,

I've just discovered I've got an extra 2,599,999,999,998 dogs I need to take out for the evening walk, but no worries, they're essentially the same as 2 dogs, so even tho' you night think that'd be a whole lot more dog poop on the trail to clean up, I have it on good authority from BBC Climate Experts that it's "not like I've discovered a lot of new trees dogs", so "KayyyyyRooo", into the car boys.

Damn, looks a little more crowded than normal.

[narciso]

it's just 'pining for the fjords'

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/09/06/another-obama-funded-energy-firm-makes-its-final-emission/

[Jim Miller]

daddy - Any thoughts o the Fred Barnes article on Alaska's governor? I found it interesting and more than a little depressing, but don't know enough about Alaska politics to judge its accuracy.

(Here it is, in case you haven't seen it already.)

[narciso]

well the main reason why the huntress supported him, was the pipeline, since her successor dismantled the negotiating team,

[jimmyk on iPhone]

This seems like no contest: Voxsplainers vs Judith Curry

https://twitter.com/politicalmath/status/640976539434090497

[jimmyk on iPhone]

Hmm, the above was also supposed to also include a pic of Curry's headline

"Carly Fiorina Hits the 'Sweet Spot' on Climate Change'"

[caro]

"KayyyyyRooo",

Here.

[glasater]

When I was a kid I seem to remember quite a few hurricanes here on the West coast. Man Tran would know.

[daddy]

Jim Miller,

Just read the Fred Barnes take on our Governor and sadly it seems pretty much on the mark. I do blame our in-state dysfunctional GOP for a lot of the mess, as they've self-destructed in internecine battles over Party leadership for the last 5 years, leaving us directionless and divided into factions.

I also have to say our previous lackluster Governor, Parnell, did absolutely nothing to make anyone want to enthusiastically vote for him. Along came Walker, who obviously wanting the job at any cost, cut a deal with the Dem's to run as an Independent and agreed to have a Lib Dem as his running mate, so now we're stuck with a guy who's looking for pats on the back from wherever he can get them. Sadly he's getting them from the Left since the Repub's pretty much hate his guts and don't trust him, and with the drop in Oil prices that has killed us he winds up signing up for the free Federal money programs that the Left loves to promote, which offer temporary cosmetic relief, but which lead to higher taxes and reliance on expanded Government programs, that in the end I think will prove unsustainable. I am not a Walker fan.

[Jack is Back!]

Hurricanes have always been fickled and misunderestimated much like W. Take one look at our recent Erika and all the different model projection of vectors, speeds and wind. Everywhere but nowhere.

What I do love about them is how, like Trump, the end up making the media and academia look silly.

First day back to school for Frederick. Actually 1/2 day and then big time after school swim party at Chez JiB's as a belated BD party for him with 13 of his new classmates.

[Extraneus]

Establishment:

Not Establishment:

[Extraneus]

The 20 most commonly used Ashley Madison passwords. (Rated PG)

http://bgr.com/2015/09/07/ashley-madison-most-used-passwords-list/

[Stephanie]

Watching Hitler's Messiah Complex on AHC. You could almost insert Obama for Hitler if Hitler didn't think God was protecting him.

I watched that and was thinking the same thing, Sue. Damn!

[daddy]

Brett Baire: Do you think Senator McConnell and Speaker Boehner have been strong Leaders?

Graham: Yeah.

Brett: Or do you think that they should make way for new Leadership?

Graham: No, I think they have done a good job. We've got President Obama. The idea that you're going to repeal ObamaCare when he's President is promising people things you can't deliver. We got the first Budget in 5 years. We took the Keystone Pipeline Vote. Got 62 Votes. Got it to Obama's desk. and he vetoed it. All I'm telling my Republican colleagues out there is I want to win in 2016. We start shooting each other and we're going to lose. Having a Democratic President and 54 Republicans in the Senate is not a pathway for doing everything you would like.