Bring On the Hot Hand!

We have been kicking around the question of whether you are hot when you are hot (although our earlier ruminations had marginally greater cogency.

And now Bill Belichek's Evil Empire is back in the news with a hot streak of their own:

Is 'Coingate' the next New England Patriots controversy?

...

How lucky can one organization get?

Statistically [the Pats have] won 19 of their last 25 coin flips. According to CBSSports.com, the possibility of that outcome dwells near impossibility at 0.0073. So much for the law of averages.

The coin flip, as every football fan knows, determines which team selects to receive or defer the opening kickoff. There is a fair amount of strategy that goes into even the coin flip, and this is not lost on coach Bill Belichick.

Well, I will take their statistical calculation at face value and note the selection bias involved - they are presenting the odds of the Pats winning on 19 (or more) of their next 25 coin flips. As to the past 25 flips, well, it is 100 percent probable that this story would not have been written had the Pats won 12 of 25. We are reading about it because Patriot cheating is in the news (OK, a bit of an evergreen) and because they had what might simply be an outlier of a result.

Or the Pats have gotten a rigged coin into the mix. But one might want to review a history of NFL coin tosses over the years, because streaks like this may well have happened before.

FWIW: After a quick and dirty simulation exercise I conclude that in runs of 1000 coin flips a sequence producing 19 or more heads (or victories) in a block of 25 consecutive flips occurs roughly 2% of the time. Still highly unlikely, but 0.02 is much higher than the 0.0073 figure quoted above.

As to a context, there are 32 teams playing 16 games per season, with two teams involved in each game (Yes, even the Jets count as two). 32 x 16 /2 = 256. Throw in some overtimes, and we have maybe 300 flips per year. So there is a 2 percent chance of such a run once every three years. Over the recent Belichek era, say, the last ten years, that suggests a roughly 94% chance of such a winning run at some point for some team.

Comments

[Dave (in MA)]

Heads I win
Tails you lose

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

I have a feeling that there will be a lot of statistically ignorant statements in this thread, starting with the post itself; without doing the calculations myself because of laziness and disinterest, I would place a fair amount of credence in that .0073 figure.

[daddy]

TM,

I am getting Blog whiplash. You post another one buddy and I'm suing you for personal damages.

[boatbuilder, Esq., Lord of All He Surveys]

Wow, talk about clickbait! I'm all in.

[boatbuilder, Esq., Lord of All He Surveys]

And math is not really my strong point...

[daddy]

From Gretta's Show:

Catherine Herridge: FOX News is independently confirming this evening that, one through a Government source, that all of the evidence so far is consistent with a device, a high tech, high end device, being planted on the aircraft. A second source also insisted to us that the crash signature was consistent with a bomb, the flash, and then also this narrow or discrete debris field.

The new intelligence that is now available to the US Govt has prompted them to change Security Procedures overseas, specifically on airports coming in to the United States. This is not a maybe, this is driven by new information which increasingly points to...

...all of the indicators point to a bomb planted on board, and not just a bunch of explosives in a suitcase, but something that was high end and high tech.

[narciso]

question, where in London would an engineer for a British aerospace live,

[narciso]

remember what we said earlier, scratch that,

https://twitter.com/NoahCRothman/status/662784499617542144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[boatbuilder, Esq., Lord of All He Surveys]

Is there really anyone in this great country of ours who doesn't believe that when General freakin' Westmoreland says "you're in", you're in?

[daddy]

Here's the West Point "Scholarship" ad from some magazine aimed at Black youth, that Charles Payne showed on his show and that Narciso dug up for us:

West Point Scholarship

[daddy]

In light of my 08:11 posted above about the West Point ad stating the following:

"Each year about 1200 young men and women take advantage of the opportunity to tend West Point on a full government Scholarship, which includes tuition, room and board, medical and dental care, and an annual salary.

I now post Bill O'Reilly 5 minutes ago talking to Ben Carson:

O'Reilly: "I don't know whether you know this or not but there are no Scholarships to West Point. It's all Free Tuition. You get an appointment from a Congressman or a Congresswoman and that's how you get it.

[henry]

O'Reilly is a Trump-class asshole. And visa versa.

[narciso]

Honestly, did the brain slugs descend today, more forcefully on the punditry,

[boatbuilder, Esq., Lord of All He Surveys]

Also-and this is solid math--any organization that drafted Tom Brady in the 6th round is "lucky" by definition so all stats go out the window.

[rich@gmu]

evening all.

[narciso]

hey rich, how have you been?

[narciso]

if they replaced O'reilly with a smart chimp, would there be an appreciable difference?

[daddy]

Fireworks between Bill O'Reilly and George Will about Will's column dumping on O'Reilly's "Killing Reagan" book. Will called it a "Fact Free" book.

Interesting because you can hear George Will's emotions in his throat.

Will laughs at a statement from O'Reilly and O'Reilly challenges him angrily, "What are you laughing at Will?"

O'Reilly says to George Will, "You are lying."

O'Reilly to George Will. "You can't read!"

O'Reilly. "You're a hack!"

Geez.

[Jane]

That was a hell of an exchange daddy and reminds me of why I hate O'Reilly, which brings me to the issue of why I am watching O'Reilly who I vow never to watch.

Oh well.

[Threadkiller]

It was something, daddy.

[daddy]

Will to O'Reilly:

Will: You wrote a book without feeling any obligation to talk to Ed Meese, George Schultz, Jim Baker, any of the other people who could refute the thesis...

O'Reilly: (Interrupting.) And why did I refuse to talk to them?

Will: Because they would have refuted the flimsy thesis you have.

O'Reilly:(Interrupting) No. Because they have skin in the game. We don't talk to people when we're writing ...

Segment ended with Will saying of an O'Reilly statement, " That by the way is a lie, that by the way is a lie."

O'Reilly: It isn't a lie, and we can prove it, and you are a hack!

Will: Do so, do so, do so, Mister O'Reilly.

[narciso]

Dugard's previous work, could have referenced the Minx connection to the assasination, this last seems right out of Kitty Kelley, with Moldea's crazy screed that Dutch was a pawn of the mob,

[Captain Hate on the iPhone]

narc, the chimp might do something cute. I've criticized Will a great deal in the past year but this sounds like an outstanding takedown of the blowhard and his horribly ill conceived tree killer.

[Some Guy]

TM, if this is just some cheap attempt to get me to start commenting again... I'm not falling for it.

Oh wait... shoot!

[rich@gmu]

>>>Posted by: narciso | November 06, 2015 at 08:28 PM

well thank you. Can't keep up with all the threads.

[boatbuilder, Esq., Lord of All He Surveys]

Did O'Rielly really say that when you are writing a book about an alleged historical event you don't talk to people "with skin in the game?"

Even by my very jaded standards, things are getting weird.

[rich@gmu]

what are the odds the Redskins pulling the upset this weekend?

[daddy]

Yes Boatbuilder, he did. He added a bit more also. Here was his full reply in that nasty exchange:

O'Reilly: No. Because they have skin in the game. We don't talk to people when we're writing our books... (interruption by Will)

O'Reilly; They have skin in the game. Emotion in the Game, Spin in the game. We don't talk to anybody who was derogatory to the Reagan's, or anybody who was laudatory to the Reagan's. You want me to read more? I got more? This meeting absolutely took place...

[Michael (fpa Patriot4Freedom)]

rich - Glad to see you back. Hope things are going well for you lately.

Any good news re your friend/neighbor Jackie?

[rich@gmu]

>>>Even by my very jaded standards, things are getting weird.

Posted by: boatbuilder, Esq., Lord of All He Surveys | November 06, 2015 at 08:59 PM<<<

yea ...

[Threadkiller]

BOR did say that one of the clowns wanted conditions if he were to grant an interview.

Meese?

[boatbuilder, Esq., Lord of All He Surveys]

daddy--the out-of-control egomaniacs I have sort of respected but wondered about seem to have gone completely over the edge. Is there something in the phases of the moon?

[boatbuilder, Esq., Lord of All He Surveys]

Here I am thinking that George Will is right on point. It has to be the moon.

[rich@gmu]

Mike-

concussion and 20 stitches in the back of her head. her seizures are under control with medication (not sure what that issue is). she's was in the hospital for a few days.

[Rocco]

Just a Heads Up!

Simple Jedi mind tricks! There's a Boogey man around every corner now, Dearth Hoodie's out to get ya! He's in their heads. Most opposing coaches melt down when facing Belichick.

[Miss Marple]

I see things are getting stranger and stranger.

I therefore am watching Miss Fisher's Murder Mysteries on Netflix.

[Thomas Collins]

I cannot believe how much in the heads of the rest of the NFL the Pats are. Bugs in the locker room. Weighted coins. Messing with refs' and opponents' headphones. What's next?

[GMax]

Henry

I would have wrote Trump and Oreilly are a Charlie Dent class AHole, but we are now down to semantics.

[Thomas Collins]

Red Auerbach and his supposed well placed blips in the parquet floor can't compare to the obsession with the Pats supposed competitive moves.

[GMax]

if they replaced O'reilly with a smart chimp, would there be an appreciable difference?

Yes the chimp would be sure to be adorable and lovable...

[Michael (fpa Patriot4Freedom)]

The confrontation between George Will and Bill O'Reilly on BOR's program was quite a scene. It is hard to imagine any kind of truce between the two of them after that.

Wonder if FNC thinks/knows one of them is on the way out, and allowed tonight's knock-down-drag-out fight with that in mind.

Anyone interested in seeing the confrontation can watch the repeat at about 11:28 P.M. EDT (8:28 P.M. PDT).

[Threadkiller]

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/youre-a-hack-oreilly-explodes-at-george-will-for-attacking-his-no-facts-zone-book/

[Michael (fpa Patriot4Freedom)]

rich - Glad to hear she's recovering.

[Threadkiller]

Fievel Mousekewitz in drag is filling in for the butch-cut Magpie tonight.

Colmes and Gutfeld talking about Trump and SNL.

Gutfeld keeps calling Colmes a hack.

[boatbuilder, Esq., Lord of All He Surveys]

My respect for George Will, which had in all honesty declined, is restored. He handled that asshole with perfect composure.

[narciso]

good to know,

I'm dvring the episodes,

[Threadkiller]

It was an episode alright.

[narciso]

of the fisher series, with essie davis,

[narciso]

this is essie davis, not in flapper garb

[Rocco]

Bellichick wins because, well because he's a sorcerer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-w4yFKMlxnA