Challenging The White Middle Aged Death Rates

Are the statistics this tricky? Andrew Gelman endorses the main point of the recent paper noting the lagging mortality performance of middle-aged white Americans. However, he also explains his view that certain important adjustments need to be made, the upshot of which change the narrative slightly:

Death rates have been increasing for middle-aged white women, decreasing for men

Bring in the number crunchers.

Comments

[hrtshpdbox]

First.

[hrtshpdbox]

From previous thread:
"...I still don't know anyone that wants Jeb Bush for POTUS. Not one person."

I probably don't count. I'll take anything I can get, even if it's from HuffPo:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jeb-bush-immigration_5642ae65e4b08cda3486a15a

Nite all.

[GUS]

Thousands of young BLACK men/boys are dying each year in RAHM EMANUEL TOWN.

discuss.

[Dave (in MA)]

A lefty of my acquaintance on FB says, "We can't have too many philosophers."

[daddy]

I don't know who my co-pilot will be tomorrow that I'm going to have to hang out with for the next 10 days, but I am so thankful that it ain't John Kasich or Donald Trump.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

What the world needs now is another folk singer philosopher
like I need a hole in my head.

[Dave (in MA)]

I haven't seen a lot of philosopher openings on craigslist.

[Dave (in MA)]

Megyn just played the Carly "green room" clip with a clip from Fallon where she mentioned meeting Poot in a green room setting.

[Threadkiller]

From the Internet:

Cruz 12.9m
Kasich 12m
Trump 11.5m
Fiorina 11m
Rubio 10.5m
Bush 10m
Paul 9.9m
Carson 9.2m

[Stephanie]

http://dcwhispers.com/must-read-trump-was-right-on-china-the-tpp-agreement/

Trump was right?

[daddy]

Steph,

FWIW, Tucker Carlson just said that he thought Trump had the very best answer on the situation in Syria, followed immediately by Steve Hayes saying Trump's answer on Syria was the most incomprehensible answer of the night.

[Stephanie]

LOL.

I don't get republicans on FB trashing other republicans. A mutual friend of some here on FB has been disparaging "Baggers" all night and I just don't get it.

And evidently Ted Cruz is a traitor for dragging down reps approval ratings... was their abandoning his filibuster the reason for the collapse or was his filibuster the reason for their collapse... I'm not sure which is the right formulation but assuming the media narrative on it is just plain stupid. Gah!

[Jane on Ipad]

Daddy, have a good trip and be safe!

[mike in houston]

Just for fun

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKcWu0tsiZM#t=414

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

Levin gave full credit to the Fox Bidness Channel for the way that the undercard debate was held and all four participants in how they presented themselves.

Reading the comments here about Kasich, it seemd to mirror how I came to regard him as governor. I voted for him twice; the first time enthusiastically and then much less so. Either something happened to him in Columbus to change an earnestly likeable person into an obviously self promoting bozo or he lost the ability to mask that aspect of his personality. He has been ideologically invisible in Ohio when it comes to stating an opinion on statewide issues such as the medical marijuana issue, as he was strangely so four years ago on the public sector unions. He is not a leader and I don't think is capable of fooling anybody on that.

[Jack is Back!]

I thought Kasich was irritating last night and a pass from his old set mates at Fox. Why the guy at the end of the line should come in second in minutes yapping is plain wrong. If you are going to award a spot on survey points then your exposure time should be proportional. [Learned that word last night]🤓

[rse]

CH-a crucial component of the Prog vision is getting to politicians, the media, business and civic leaders and putting them through 'leadership training' that is absolutely grounded in behavioral science methods straight out of Tavistock research. We all know it as 'reaching a consensus' but it is the proverbial "iron fist in a velvet glove'.

Whoever Kasich was when he came to Columbus, He has gone through some of that "this is what the Enlightened believe" training. So has jeb. You can hear it in their voices and how they lead out of emotion instead of facts and get caught off guard by factual analysis.

I am getting ready to write about what a Learning City and Region are and how it is crucial to invisibly achieving the UN's agenda at a local level and via education. It kept referencing starting with training the leaders first but eventually all citizens in the desired values, attitudes, and shared vision.

In what has to be one of the all time greatest phrases "top down authoritarianism is no longer in vogue" ranks up there. Enshrined in statutes and regs authoritarinism still is though and Kasich and jeb have both as governors engaged in a good bit of this gambit. Ohio I read about. I split time between Ga and fl for about 15 years. I am not name calling jeb, but I know a lot about what he got FL into.

[Jeff Dobbs]

From last thread:
FWIW: Charlie Gasperino:

"i was astounded by how incoherent John Kasich and Jeb Bush were on banking issues."

...especially considering Kasich was on the board at Lehman Bros.

[Janet]

"...Bartiromo called Clinton's resume "impressive" and added that she has "more experience than almost all of you."

I think Bartiromo got Hillary confused with Sidney Blumenthal.
Clinton should have to bring Blumenthal to any debate she is in so he can tell us what he is gonna tell Clinton to do.

[Jeff Dobbs]

(not board, but senior executive, i guess)

[Jeff Dobbs]

...and Bush was an "independent senior advisor" at Lehman.

[Jeff Dobbs]

BTW, great job on the debate everyone. Fun to read on catchup. Only thing I've seen or read about the debate so far.

Now to go see what the rest of the world thinks...

[Jack is Back!]

To my fellow veterans: Thank you for your service.

Oh! thus be it ever, when freemen shall stand
Between their loved home and the war’s desolation!
Blest with victory and peace, may the heav’n rescued land
Praise the Power that hath made and preserved us a nation.
Then conquer we must, when our cause it is just,
And this be our motto: “In God is our trust.”
And the star-spangled banner in triumph shall wave
O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave!

[Janet]

It struck me last night too that the news is full of Dem./leftist constituents all roiled up.

Where are the questions to the Obama admin., Clinton, & ALL the Dems about those stories? Specific questions...how do they weigh in?

*Missouri chaos - make the Dems articulate WHAT exactly is the problem there (nobody seems to know)

*trangender bathroom access - are they for it? What about girls right to privacy?

*Americans suing for being slandered after getting caught up in the Title IX - 1in5 raped lie insanity - What protections do Dems propose for the accused?

*What about the huge numbers of birds being killed by windmills & solar plants? - http://news.investors.com/blogs-capital-hill/061715-757818-windmills-and-solar-plans-kill-far-birds-than-oil-spills.htm

[Beasts of England]

A sincere thanks to our JOM Vets!

[boatbuilder, Esq., Lord of All He Surveys]

Re: the Missouri thing--Is there any place in the world where "minority" youths receive more of the "respect" that they are demanding than on the campuses of our universities?

[boatbuilder, Esq., Lord of All He Surveys]

Ditto, Beasts--to Jack and all the other Vets. Thank you.

[henry]

Nobody opressed me by by paying my dad $8.4 million a year in salary. But I didn't choose Mizzou like hunger strike boy.

[anonamom]

"Men with souls of cotton candy"

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/education-ivory-tower-christakis-benedict-option-classical-christian/

(JiB--good long section on state of Catholic ed)

[Steve]

Comprehensive list of free meals and more for our military veterans:

http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2015/11/veterans-day-specials-and-free-meals.html

[Buckeye]

I will second what CH is saying about Kasich in Ohio. Since the flap over public sector unions, he has either stayed out of the spotlight or been ignored by the press. Maybe both.

I think his "touchy, feely" side is influence by his current wife. She grew up in our neighborhood. Lot of that disease going around here.

[GMax]

Scratch a protestor, find a commie. I have already shown that the Tarantino speech sponsors were absolutely commie. My strong suspicion, if you did the same thing I did, and go find these "sponsors" and 'protest leaders" bios and background, you are going to keep coming up with communist groups...

[James D]

henry @ 8:17

He is working toward a master’s degree in educational leadership and policy

They should have let him starve to death.

[clarice]

I no longer trust Gateway Pundit--it's been wrong so many times.

[clarice]

Been at Mizzou for EIGHT years working to get a masters in ed policy==must be a real genius.

[henry]

JamesD, the hunger strike was as fake as the poop swastika, the rednecks in a pickup truck, the oppression he's faced in his life etc.

No risk of starving there.

[Appalled]

rse:

Are you saying Kasich and Jeb have been brainwashed by Progressives?

The average politician is a pretty egotistical, narcissistic guy. They may not have too much in the way of core beliefs, but I doubt management training at the capital is going to change them that much. It might change styles to a degree -- and in the case of Kasich -- he hired Jon Huntsman's campaign manager, which has a lot to do with his presentation as a rampant bipartisan. In Jeb's case -- years as an expected member of the governing set may have an influence on how he presents himself, and remember he is a 2004 Conservative in a 2015 world.

We all have our theories on the way the world works -- but I don't think adults change who they are all that much, without some drastic trauma. If they seem to change, it's usually because they were good actors. Winning an election usually doesn't count.

If you have ever read the book version of the Maltese Falcon (as opposed to the movie, which does not have this), there is a brief description of a man named Flitcraft, who nearly gets hit by something falling from a building, and feels that suddenly he has seen how life works. He runs away from his home and Sam Spade finds him -- living almost the exact same life someplace else.

I guess I am the guy who finds profundity in detective novels by communists, so maybe discount this viewpoint. But don't underestimate the human spirit, and what human beings are either.

[Marlene]

Thank you to our veterans.
The promo for the Benghazi movie looks intense. It comes out in mid-January. If they were smart (ha) the RNC should give free movie tickets to voters in Iowa and NH.

[henry]

Clarice, I agree, but he did quote the Post Dispatch.

[Jane]

Great idea Marlene.

[James D]

Appalled,

If the average politician is, as you say, an egotistical, narcissistic person without much in the way of core beliefs (I agree with that assessment), then it seems to me that the so-called "leadership training" rse describes would probably work especially well on them.

[Beasts of England]

Educational Leadership and Policy. What in the heck does that even mean?

Does it create jobs or wealth? Expand the tax base? Make us safer? Advance our technological base? Ugh.

[Sandy Daze]

I keep the faith, brother.

Thank you to all who have served, and are on point, today.

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

Salute to the vets.

[Porchlight]

Dashiell Hammett was a communist? I guess one could have assumed, but I didn't know.

[Jack is Back!]

rse,

Thanks for the link to the American Conservative. The writer is correct, there is a noticeable decline in "classic" education in Catholic schools. Very few, if any, teach latin and greek as liberal art languages. They are not taught as conversational language but to expand the student's knowledge fo the classics, history and literature. Now the only language taught is Spanish in K-8. When I went to K-8 we began latin and greek in grade 3. Of course, the masses were all said in Latin back then so as an altar server it was sort of incumbent you understood the language.

In Frederick's Florida school all the texts are diocesan approved. I call them CC-light. Here in New York his Catholic school uses the public school's curriculum except for the religion text. It is CC on steroids which the major school districts are very suspicious of and hate the testing requirements. Our teachers are spending too much time vetting the curriculum and parsing out the relevant educational material. IOW's thinning out the overt CC dogma and trying to reach something similar to Florida. Why this diocese in Long Island just doesn't go its own route I have no idea.

[Threadkiller]

http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2015/11/11/senator-ted-cruz-did-support-tpa/

[Jeff Dobbs]

I'm fine with dissing philosophers generally.

But all the same I specifically miss Jim Ryan.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Are you saying Kasich and Jeb have been brainwashed by Progressives?--

It's not a matter of brainwashing. It's social pressure and conformity. That doesn't stop at high school and it's why and how the left seeks to dominate culture and proscribe rather than challenge competing ideas.

If the desire to stay in the dominant culture's good graces didn't exist Tom Bethell need never have devised the Strange New Respect award.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Dashiell Hammett was a communist? I guess one could have assumed, but I didn't know.--

Is there some other method in all creation that would compel a man to volunatarily hitch his wagon to the unspeakable hag Lillian Hellman?

[DebinNC]

Aren't all R governors of swing states like FL and OH squishes by nature? How else would they get elected and reelected? Mike Pence was elected in IN as a conservative but, from comments here, I doubt he'd be reelected.

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

Jim Rhodes was a solid conservative who served two terms in Ohio.

[DebinNC]

I like the Treepers, but their purity tests for R candidates scare me.

[Miss Marple 2]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/egyptian-pyramids-have-strange-heat-spots-inside-of-them-experts-say-a6728366.html

I think it would be hilarious if the heat spots were caused by chambers full of decomposing GRAIN.

[Miss Marple 2]

DebinNC,

Pence is still a conservative. His unpopularity isn't from his political beliefs, but from the folllowing:

1. He is not a "people" person. Mostly stays in his office.

2. He only really has discussions with those in his inner circle. Purged most of Daniels's hires and never mentions Daniels by name AT ALL.

3. Rarely does interviews, even on the conservative talk radio station.

4. Due to 1,2, and 3, has done some ham-handed actions like the flap over gay rights last year, causing such an uproar that the legislature got stampeded into making gays a protected class.

5. Too fond of renaming things and then acting like he is not doing something, like Common Core and Medicaid expansion. He just calls it "Hoosier Values in Education" or "Healthy Indiana" and then does the exact same thing.

My personal gripe is that although we have known this coal ruling is coming for at least 3 years, all he has done is go through some sort of court case after going to DC and "making the case for Indiana" (whatever that was since there was no coverage). We are one of the first states which will be hit with higher power prices due to this ruling, and he has done nothing as far as contingency plans. If electricity goes up much more, there will hundreds of thousands of Hoosiers who will be left in the dark, as they won't be able to pay their bills.

Right now they should have a plan to help these people, a way to read the regulations differently, a way to slow walk compliance, maybe even civil disobedience. He should be talking to the people of this state about the issue, and he is not.

I don't think he will win next year. His opponent will be John Gregg, a southern Indiana old-school democrat who is a jolly type and who knows a LOT of people in this state (me included, as I used to work with him years and years ago when I worked for the coal company).

[rse]

Appalled-I am saying that the Learning Cities/Lifelong Learning materials mentioned in this new post http://www.invisibleserfscollar.com/harnessing-the-willingness-of-the-populace-to-fill-its-role-in-these-plans-via-deceit-at-all-levels/ hype the importance of 'Leadership Training' for those involved. That it is a crucial component of the vision.

Remember my Axemaker Mind metaphor? For one thing it is what phonetic reading creates magically like an elixir and it completely gums up the ability of this Tavistock behavioral science conditioning to take hold. I am not inferring that. The materials over the years confess that as what is really the cause of the disdain for lecturing, textbooks, and facts.

You read a lot and so do I. I seem to remember you are an attorney. Working with language, offensively and defensively, is what we do. We are harder to get at than most. We inherently look for a conflict of interest guiding most statements of officials, but most people don't. I had noticed that people I have known for years develop a change in voice tone and a tendency to believe that they are part of something bigger. It turns out to be these retreats and management training.

Someone I know by correspondence was at Stanford during the era of the 70s when Rogers & Maslow's theories were being used ON students and she says it scarred her for life. Recently a parent telling the story of private schools pushing trust circles where the student is told to close their eyes and let others catch them was discussing her son's resulting broken nose and the principal's lame response. The former Stanford student recognized the practice as something Rogers pushed as well.

I heard it and said that I knew they used that in Leadership Sandy Springs because I knew people who had done it. I also knew GPEE and its state level leadership classes hypes each member revealing "I used to believe x. Now I believe Y." and telling everyone what has changed.

I am saying that both jeb and kasich have every tell of having done these kinds of retreats and leadership training sessions.

[DebinNC]

Thanks, MM. Doesn't sound like Pence deserves to be reelected. The public persona I remember and admired seems to have been false.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

In reading Andrew Gelman's link at the top of the page I came across a previous post where he smeared Ben Carson as a "pathological liar" because he had "made up" a story about some class called Perceptions and fabricated from thin air the story about the quiz.

The little shit made no correction or apology. I called him out on that thread and on a new one where he had just commented to see if he has the integrity to correct and apologize.
Until and unless he does he's a worthless little shit.

[Miss Marple 2]

Deb,

I attribute much of this to the last few years of his time in DC. I think he wanted to run for president then but knew that he wouldn't have the clout that governors do, hence why he came back to run for governor here.

Everything he has done points to him thinking he was going to be able to run for president. The gay rights thing was no doubt to secure a base with evangelicals, a group who backed him in his initial run.

The doublespeak on programs was to portray himself as standing up to the pressure of the educational establishment and Obamacare.

I even heard him on a national talk show bragging about how WE in Indiana have reduced taxes and balanced our budget, when he had only been in office for 6 months. He was claiming credit for things Daniels had done.

I miss Mitch Daniels.

[Cecil Turner]

I like the Treepers, but their purity tests for R candidates scare me.

I don't generally read 'em, but that article is stupid. Ted Cruz supported TPA initially, then switched his vote based on the process:

Enough is enough. I cannot vote for TPA unless McConnell and Boehner both commit publicly to allow the Ex-Im Bank to expire—and stay expired. And, Congress must also pass the Cruz-Sessions amendments to TPA to ensure that no trade agreement can try to back-door changes to our immigration laws. Otherwise, I will have no choice but to vote no.

The only vote after that was the [very important] cloture vote the next day . . . that passed with exactly 60 votes. The treehouse folks list the link to the roll call vote, but don't mention the fact Cruz voted against it:

Cruz (R-TX), Nay

This was news at the time. Some of us even remember it.

[DebinNC]

I miss Mitch Daniels

Me too. If Daniels turns out later to have feet of clay, I hope I don't hear about it.

[buccaneer morgan]

Turchenko points out, that a crisis in education is different to the left then it is to us, we concern ourself with workforce and knowledge, they focus on meme (pg 54 theresbouts)

[Porchlight]

Is there some other method in all creation that would compel a man to volunatarily hitch his wagon to the unspeakable hag Lillian Hellman?

Oh yeah, I forgot about that. Blech.