Bracing For The State of the Union

Peter Baker of the Times does a fair job of presenting Obama's seeming diffidence towards ISIS.

Balancing Terror and Reality in State of the Union Address

By PETER BAKER   JAN. 11, 2016

WASHINGTON — When President Obama speaks to the nation in his final State of the Union address on Tuesday night, he will offer a familiar reassurance that the country is expending enormous effort to protect Americans against international terrorism.

Here is what he probably will not say, at least not this bluntly: Americans are more likely to die in a car crash, drown in a bathtub or be struck by lightning than be killed by a terrorist. The news media is complicit in inflating the sense of danger. The Islamic State does not pose an existential threat to the United States.

 Yeah, yeah, he says that after the San Bernardino terrorists shot up co-workers at an office party. People with jobs getting shot? So what? if ISIS wants to provoke a response from this President they need to shoot up an abortion clinic or a gay bar.

Comments

[narciso]

was this is,

http://twitchy.com/2016/01/13/demand-a-refund-from-al-gore-al-jazeera-america-shutting-down/?utm_source=autotweet&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter

[narciso]

how did you find that one, Capt,

[JMHanes]

Thomas Collins:

Very interesting links, particularly with regard to Taiwan's defense strategy -- which makes me even more skeptical about any significant head-on Chinese military incursion. Shipping is China's lifeblood (hence their obvious interest in maritime hegemony); just imagine the havoc a single sub could wreak on the busiest sea lanes in the world. Nor could they count on the neighbors they've been busy trying to intimidate just quietly looking on. That strikes me as a tactical error of strategic importance on China's part, as much of the neighborhood is now cosying up to the United States in a big way, bygones being bygones. There's at least something that this Administration hasn't completely fumbled, even though the Chinese island building continues apace.

When it comes to paradigm shifting, however, I'd credit GWBush for the extraordinary, unvaunted, accomplishment of getting Japanese pacifists to sign onto the Taiwan defense pact. China certainly represents an existential threat to Taiwan, but I think the cost of repatriating Taiwan by force could come in a close second in reverse. I can imagine a lot of sabre rattling (an art the Chinese perfected milenium or so ago), along with any number of tense confrontations, and even armed clashes -- all falling just short of the level which would require a military response. Rick's strangulation scenario makes more sense to me, but I could also be completely wrong. Chinese nationalistic intensity is a potentially serious wild card.

Rick:

Thanks for the Rubio rehabilitation link. He did some excellent deconstruction work on Obamacare, too, and he's good on eminent domain.

[Miss Marple]

http://www.racked.com/2016/1/12/10756136/hermes-birkin-value?utm_content=buffer2ff2b&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Birkin handbags better investment than gold and stocks over last 35 years.

[Sandy Daze]

Every skipper knows the Code of Conduct, as should every / EVERY sailor, soldier, airman, or MARINE.
--
Code of Conduct for Members of the United States Armed Forces

I

I am an American, fighting in the forces which guard my country and our way of life. I am prepared to give my life in their defense.

[Article I amended by EO 12633 of Mar. 28, 1988, 53 FR 10355, 3 CFR, 1988 Comp., p. 561]

II

I will never surrender of my own free will. If in command, I will never surrender the members of my command while they still have the means to resist.

[Article II amended by EO 12633 of Mar. 28, 1988, 53 FR 10355, 3 CFR, 1988 Comp., p. 561]

III

If I am captured I will continue to resist by all means available. I will make every effort to escape and aid others to escape. I will accept neither parole nor special favors from the enemy.

IV

If I become a prisoner of war, I will keep faith with my fellow prisoners. I will give no information or take part in any action which might be harmful to my comrades. If I am senior, I will take command. If not, I will obey the lawful orders of those appointed over me and will back them up in every way.

V

When questioned, should I become a prisoner of war, I am required to give name, rank, service number and date of birth. I will evade answering further questions to the utmost of my ability. I will make no oral or written statements disloyal to my country and its allies or harmful to their cause.

[Article V amended by EO 12017 of Nov. 3, 1977, 42 FR 57941, 3 CFR, 1977 Comp., p. 152]

VI

I will never forget that I am an American, fighting for freedom, responsible for my actions, and dedicated to the principles which made my country free. I will trust in my God and in the United States of America.

[Sandy Daze]

I don't read anything in there about ROE.

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

I was at a concert by a group that included the trumpet player. After it was over at the merchandise table a trusted person recommended an earlier disc by that group (a better release on a label that is almost impossible to find domestically). I subsequently found the new linked release on Spotify.

[BB Key]

Climpsen Tigers beat Duke in men's roundball

Alabama rematch requested by AD :)

[jimmyk]

Kerry thanking Iran for returning the soldiers after they illegally kidnapped them is a new low for this administration, no easy feat. It's not a new low for Kerry, just another chapter in a disgusting life.

[Sandy Daze]

"I wish to have no connection with any ship that does not sail fast; for I intend to go in harm's way."

The times they are a changing.

http://www.usna.edu/PAO/faq_pages/JPJones.php

[narciso]

it's really good, and a little off the beaten path,.

[Miss Marple]

Sandy,

Understood.

Except I am not certain they have the troops learn the Code of Conduct.

Nothing is as it was. Could be the skipper was weak. Or could be he was following orders. Don't know.

Will wait to see what happens.

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

Here's the earlier one:

https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUSRfoOcUe4bc8IsCzeW8uFhAGQZyqnu1

Are you watching Criminal Minds?

[Threadkiller]

Wow. Megan Kelly's show tonight should be the end of Hillary.

[Jack is Back (but On Alert)!]

agree, SD. Today's American sailor/soldier. Educated at the knee of PC academies and univeristy.. Why even want to join the military?

Now he could have had two Iranian's prepareed to rape the lady or shoot the fuck out of his crew but his demenour didn't show that. More like getting them all out of Dodge. But disappointin nevertheless.

Obama will give him a kiss and bronze star in the Rose Garden. bet on it.

[Sandy Daze]

Simply disgusting.

[Miss Marple]

Heading to bed.

Good night, everyone!

[Sandy Daze]

13 hours in Benghazi

13 Hours on farsi island

Huh.

[narciso]

No I'm not, it creeps me out more than some of the others in the genre,

[JMHanes]

18 MAPS THAT EXPLAIN MARITIME SECURITY IN ASIA

narciso:

I enjoyed browsing the 38North site you linked to the other day, which seems to have a bit of everything NoKo: Keeping Up with the… Kim Family.

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

Are there any JOMers in Scottsdale?

[Jack is Back (but On Alert)!]

Cap,

I think ArizonaJim ? who is a special mountain rescue guy is close by there.

[Threadkiller]

That's "Bill in Az."

[Threadkiller]

Going out to buy a car, CH?

[Jack is Back (but On Alert)!]

TK,

Thamks. That's him but if does mountain rescure hard to believe he is near Scottsdale.

[clarice]

Just read these were marines not navy..whoa..

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

No, visiting an old roommate along with another roommate. Bill in Az hasn't posted in a long time.

[Threadkiller]

He is in the hills to the north-east of Phoenix IIRC.

[Jack is Back (but On Alert)!]

Clarice,

careful. That is what a lot of countries call Navy. Marines or Marinal.

If they were Marines, Mad Dog will peronally chock the shit out of that command officer.

[Threadkiller]

I talked to him in Oct of 2014. He was doing well.

I assure you I didn't drive him away. ;-)

[Jack is Back (but On Alert)!]

TK,

Then he is close to Scottsdale for CH. Now how to get in contact with him.

[Threadkiller]

CH, you have mail.

[narciso]

Marines wouldn't make that kind of mistake, in certain languages they mean navy, unless they add infantry to it, like the ones who took down el capo,

I don't recall, JM, I might have linked JE Dyer, who uses many of these maps,

[Threadkiller]

I have his number, JiB. Hopefully a JOM get together takes place.

[narciso]

as noted in an earlier link, the turnaround between arrival and detonation is getting narrower,

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

Probably won't be a get together this time because things are a bit compressed but maybe I'll return with or without a spouse that has so many sightseeing demands.

[clarice]

The person who made the claim knows the difference between marines and sailors.

[Jack is Back (but On Alert)!]

Clarice,

DId he give a cite? British Marines and Navy have been captured previoiusly.

[narciso]

it's possible, I was thinking of the Gulf of Tonkin incident and the predicate, the supplying of insurgent elements on nearby islands,

[JMHanes]

narciso:

The maps were just something I came across. I was talking about the link to the site dealing with North Korea -- which I just realized I actually found in the description of the author of the article you originally linked to: How ‘Crazy’ Are the North Koreans?. He had an interesting take. In any case, thanks for all the links you post; I don't know how you can possibly read so much, so widely, in what seems like so little time!

[cheerleader]

pictures from the Pensacola rally

http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/01/13/pictures-from-donald-trump-rally-in-pensacola-florida-tonight/#more-110963

[Rick Ballard]

I'm sort of hoping it was a bad batch of $700 per gallon biodiesel.

[narciso]

well she learned her lesson, criticizing the kingdom,

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Swedish-FM-calls-to-probe-Israeli-violence-against-Palestinians-in-recent-terror-wave-441245#xtor=EPR-1-[Newsletter]

[narciso]

thanks JM, so much of the fishwrap output is dreck,
nearing the blank pages in they live, so one needs to find interesting near samizdat sources of information,

[Jack is Back (but On Alert)!]

Can't post but Bubba is back out in Iowa photobombing young millenials.

[lyle]

Any chance these sailors were delivering/harboring a SpecOps asset?

#conspiracy

[narciso]

you know that's a notion that occurs to me, but why pick that location, why not move either northeast,
or southeast toward the Iranian coast,

[narciso]

norma's circulation to the brain has been more serious than usual,

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/01/13/pelosi_us_sailor_situation_proof_iran_deal_worked_yeah_well_they_may_do_bad_things_with_150_billion.html

[narciso]

ok, we know it's enemy action

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/cruz-addresses-nyt-report-that-he-didnt-disclose-goldman-sachs-loan-for-12-campaign/

[Gus]

I just read that Lurch was going to Tehran with James Taylor.

You've got a friend!!!!

[JMHanes]

You know, I've always wondered if Hillary charged her campaign interest for the $5 million that she loaned herself. Gives whole new meaning to the idea of soliciting funds to retire your campaign debts.

[lyle]

Narc is our own SpecOp asset.

[narciso]

this was perhaps the third head of the mccain campaign, yes cerberus was intended, as a reference,

http://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2016/01/13/we-deserve-better-than-donald-trump/

[narciso]

shucks, I do a literal secondhand analysis, using some good first hand sources, the carp that Fred Kaplan or David Ignatius ladle out is embarassing,

[Joan]

Humiliated, they say.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/ushome/index.html

[narciso]

little, you see how cramulent, this whole thing is,

[narciso]

typical, they way they talk up frauds like Trumbo, and talk down the truth,

http://variety.com/2016/biz/news/benghazi-movie-13-hours-michael-bay-1201679041/

[narciso]

they reveal, they know about this, as any other subject,

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/review/13-hours-secret-soldiers-benghazi-855681

[narciso]

this doesn't have anything to do with anything,

http://twitchy.com/2016/01/13/heavy-casualties-reported-after-several-explosions-hit-central-jakarta/

[narciso]

the absurd schrodinger's cat nature of the world,

https://twitter.com/iowahawkblog/status/687367598921523200

[Gus]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/01/13/istanbul-suicide-bomber-registered-at-refugee-agency-week-before-attack.html?intcmp=hplnws

Is this guy a WIDOW or a 3 YEAR OLD.

President Flap Ears???????

[Jeff Dobbs]

BREAKING NEWS: I did not win the powerball.

Not having bought a ticket, I guess this was inevitable.

[Miss Marple]

Morning, all!

Don't feel bad Jeff. I didn't win either.

[Miss Marple]

I am not sure it's a good idea to give an interview with Politico explaining how you get more speaking time in the debates, but Ted Cruz did.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/ted-cruz-republican-debates-2016-217737

[Jack is Back!]

3 winning tickets sold in California, Tennessee and Florida.

[Another Bob]

So now that the sailors have been returned, can someone clue me in as to what the mission might have been that has two small, apparently not overly reliable, five-man boats tooling around just outside Iranian-claimed waters with no useful backup?

[Miss Marple]

Kathleen ‏@flyingkat 2h2 hours ago

Kathleen Retweeted Chrissy Wittenbecher

Administrator of Landshut (just north of Munich in Bavaria), sends bus of refugees directly to Merkel's office

Kathleen added,
Chrissy Wittenbecher @WittenbecherC
Bayrischer Landrat schickt Bus mit Flüchtlingen zum Kanzleramt @welt #merkel #wirschaffendas #refugees http://m.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article150985155/Landrat-schickt-Merkel-Bus-voller-Fluechtlinge.html …
1 retweet 0 likes

------------------------

I'd say the Germans are getting a little testy.

[Miss Marple]

Oh, no! Alan Rickman has died!

[Miss Marple]

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/jan/14/alan-rickman-giant-of-british-film-and-theatre-dies-at-69?CMP=share_btn_tw

[Jeff Dobbs]

I thought the Politico article was great. Although it starts off and purports to be an article about how he gets more time - it really is an analysis of how he is effective overall, regardless of the clock.

All these years we have been pining for candidates who will refuse to accept the premises and biases of the media - and in debates stick it to the moderators - reject clown questions, go after them when possible or if necessary, and present your own message and agenda even if they don't want you to - and Cruz is essentially saying that's what he's doing.

Telling us he's doing it? Well, he's not giving away any state secrets - but he is informing us that he's doing what we say we want candidates to do.

And it's highly informative in terms of what one could expect were he the nominee and going up against Hillary in a debate - there would be no Candy Crowley moment vis a vis Romney in the second debate nor a sit back and let the other guy filibuster performance vis a vis Paul Ryan vs Biden.

I think that is an important message to get out to primary voters if I'm Cruz.

[Marlene]

I didn't win the Powerball either,but I did buy the ticket at a Publix in Florida. Ha.

[Dave (in MA)]

By Grabthar's Hammer, what a shock.

[Rudy CF]

"I think that is an important message to get out to primary voters if I'm Cruz."

The Canadian puppet of Goldman Sachs who voted for Obamatrade and legalization of illegal aliens? No thanks.

[Miss Marple]

Jeff,

Cavuto is not as easily lured in once he is aware Cruz is using him to get more air time.

I personally wouldn't think this is a good debate strategy, regardless of explaining things to primary voters.

We will see.

[Jeff Dobbs]

OK, this is not fair because the contexts are completely different - but this is what pops into my mind when reading this story...

Reagan, 1980: "I am paying for this microphone!"
Trump, 2016: "I am not paying for this microphone!"

"Whoever the hell brought this mic system, don't pay the son of a b----," he said.

Trump added: "This mic is terrible. Stupid mic keeps popping. Do you hear that George? Don't pay him! Don't pay him. You know, I believe in paying, but when somebody does a bad job like this stupid mic, you shouldn't pay the bastard. Terrible. Terrible. It's true."

The billionaire businessman said he hoped the sound system was functioning for the packed crowd, but he kept hearing a "boom" sound.

"So we're not going to pay," he continued. "I guarantee you I'm not paying for this mic. Every two minutes I hear like, 'Boom! Boom!'"

[Miss Marple]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jan/13/monica-crowley-the-deal-with-the-clinton-devil-is-/

[Jeff Dobbs]

Miss Marple:
Cavuto is not as easily lured in once he is aware Cruz is using him to get more air time.

And again I reiterate, my take from the article is that it is not simply or even primarily a strategy to "get more air time".

It's about using his debating prowess to ensure that the message he wants to communicate comes through - where others are lured into the trap of answering gotcha questions and attacking one another.

And absolutely - Trump is very very good in this regard as well - especially in light of being the frontrunner.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Insty:
NOTHING TO SEE HERE, MOVE ALONG: House Homeland chair warns of terror attacks at Disney, Oscars, Mall of America.

Greeaaattt. mrs hit and run and hit and run jr are at Disney World as we speak.

[James D]

I despise office politics. And I wish duelling were legal. I'm just saying.

[James D]

Oh, I didn't win the Powerball either. Looks like none of us did, so I guess we need a Plan B to buy St. Jane's Island...

[danoso]

Good thing Hillary didn't win - she was going to put the $1.6B in her campaign. Always thinking about us.

[Miss Marple]

http://news.yahoo.com/syrian-refugee-bus-heads-across-germany-merkels-office-132913945.html

[Miss Marple]

I hadn't heard much about this except for a blurb on Twitter a couple of days ago. I think that perhaps this was terrorism, given the names of the perps:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ten-x-nightclub-shooting-1.3397548

[Texas Liberty Gal]

MM - Just a matter of time before this happens in our country - there will be no safe places. I walk at one of our malls everyday during the winter and I always wonder if its safe. Never see one security person.

[Miss Marple]

Texas Liberty Gal,

I know. I worry about all sorts of places, schools, museums, malls, big events.

I am always looking around to see if anything suspicious is going on. Not like I could do anything except yell, but I do try to pay attention.

[Sandy Daze]

Any chance these sailors were delivering/harboring a SpecOps asset?

#conspiracy

Posted by: lyle | January 13, 2016 at 11:05 PM

NO.

So now that the sailors have been returned, can someone clue me in as to what the mission might have been that has two small, apparently not overly reliable, five-man boats tooling around just outside Iranian-claimed waters with no useful backup?

Posted by: Another Bob | January 14, 2016 at 07:18 AM

Media has reported that the to patrol craft were on a transit between Kuwait and Bahrain. (IDK in which direction.) Such a transit is not extraordinary, and one would hope that the crews of the patrol craft would be sufficiently confident in their abilities to make such a transit.*

The Persian Gulf is not a particularly large body or water, indeed at times, congested. (It is not a particularly fun place to operate, either. But that is a different matter.) Distances are relatively close, so that the patrol craft did not have a ship hovering close by is no big deal. ALL SHIPS are "close by."

A notional plan of intended movement as depicted below is roughly 280 total miles:

On that PIM, at a notional 19 knots, the entire journey would take approximately 13 hours, the the patrol craft would transit roughly 20 miles south south-west of farsi island.

* JOM's own Caro has transited the Atlantic multiple times, solo, in her sailboat.
So, one could reasonably infer that the US Navy sending ten sailors on two patrol boats on a 280 journey should be NO BIG DEAL.

[Michael (fpa Patriot4Freedom)]

Sandy - Thanks for the map and info.

I think everybody must be wondering WTH caused the commanding officer to surrender the two boats, with their apparently superior firepower, to a couple of lightly armed, smaller Iranian boats.

[jimmyk]

I think everybody must be wondering WTH caused the commanding officer to surrender the two boats

Presumably that's the ROE question discussed last night? Of course if that's the answer, it just raises the bigger question of why the ROE would call for surrender.

[Another Bob]

Thanks Mr. Daze.

I'm not questioning the capability of the boats and personnel to make the trip. I'm wondering why.

A freedom of navigation point can be made with say, a frigate, no? Why small craft?