'DeflateGate' Bubble Popped - Don't Be A Science Denier

Joe Nocera of the Times (who I love for his NCAA bashing) now bashes the NFL:

True Scandal of Deflategate Lies in the N.F.L.’s Behavior

By JOE NOCERA  JAN. 22, 2016

John Leonard is a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who roots for the Philadelphia Eagles, listens to sports talk radio when he is exercising, and teaches a course called Measurement and Instrumentation. When the Deflategate story broke after last year’s A.F.C. championship game between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts, he found himself fixated on it, yearning to dig into it from a scientific point of view.

And to skip to the punchline, the science is settled:

 Numbers in hand, Leonard went to work. He bought the same gauges the N.F.L. used to measure p.s.i. levels. He bought N.F.L.-quality footballs. He replicated the temperatures of the locker room, and the colder field. And so on. When he was done, he concluded that Exponent had made a series of basic errors. Leonard’s work showed the exact opposite of Exponent’s conclusions: The drop in the Patriots’ footballs’ p.s.i was consistent with the Ideal Gas Law; the smaller drop in pressure in the Colts’ balls was not. (Leonard surmises that because the Colts’ balls were tested after the Patriots’ balls, they had warmed up again.)

...

He is hardly the only scientist to take that position. As Dan Wetzel pointed out in a recent Yahoo Sports column, scientists at Carnegie Mellon, the University of Chicago, Boston College, Rockefeller University, the University of Illinois and Bowdoin College — and others — have all come to the same conclusion.

And yet, this overwhelming scientific consensus notwithstanding, here we are a year later, with Brady and his Patriots about to play yet again in an A.F.C. championship game — their 11th in the 22 years that Robert K. Kraft has owned the team — and nothing has changed. The other owners still seethe at what they perceive as cheating by the Patriots. The N.F.L., refusing to acknowledge the science, continues to pursue Brady in court, in an effort to enforce a four-game suspension that he sued to overturn. (Brady prevailed in the lower court.)

As to the Deeper Meaning, Mr. Nocera chugs ahead. I'll settle for, Go, Tom Terrific!

 

Comments

[peter]

Foist?

[henry]

Eff Brady. The science is irrelevant (though a replicated ideal gas law experiment only means they did not cheat effectively-- unless last minute bathroom boy checked his psi / temp tables instead of peeing). Two things are written: a) Goodell is an idiot, b) patriots are cheaters. Applying logic to this situation simply melts android brains.

[Thomas Collins]

A break from Trumpster Talk to a thread with another topic tending to generate light hearted conversation. OK, I'll bite. Cheater, eh, henry? Just because Brady likes his balls smaller than Aaron likes his, Brady's a cheater?

http://deadspin.com/aaron-rodgers-likes-to-tamper-with-footballs-too-1680676328

[Thomas Collins]

And of course no mention must be made of Mr. Nationwide Is on Your Side and HGH in the same breath.

[Thomas Collins]

In any event, here are my predictions (which I hope everyone forgets when they turn out to be totally off):

AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP-Broncos 27, Patriots 17: Even with Vollmer back, the Pats offensive line is suspect, and Denver's defense is tough. Omaha Nationwide HGH will do just enough to get the Broncos into the Super Bowl.

NFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP-Panthers 31, Cardinals 27: Cam Newton passes and runs the Panthers to victory on the last drive of the game, thus emphasizing that Rivera shouldn't shut the Panthers offense down in the second half as he did against the Seahawks.

SUPER BOWL-Panthers 30, Broncos l6: It comes down to the QBs, and Newton outplays Manning in Peyton's last game.

[henry]

TC, they all cheat.

[Thomas Collins]

Oh, I agree with that, henry. By the way, I know it sounds like second guessing, but McCarthy should have gone for two at the end. No guarantee a team in that situation will ever get within two yards of the end zone in OT. I know that sounds like after the fact reasoning, but I always think a team should go for 2 in that situation.

[daddy]

Here, via a GateWay Pundit link, is the video from about 2 weeks back where General Keane says their latest info is there are 10,000 ISIS Fighters in Libya. I transcribed it for JOM so it stuck in my mind: REPORT: ISIS Now has 10,000 Fighters in Libya (VIDEO)

And the 'Catherine' that Keane refers to is Catherine Herridge, who had just concluded a report saying ISIS's recruiting was going gangbusters, easily replacing the numbers the Administration had reported we have killed.

[Cecil Turner]

The drop in the Patriots’ footballs’ p.s.i was consistent with the Ideal Gas Law;

Didn't need to buy any gauges to do the arithmetic involved here . . . but you did need some going-in assumptions, and I'm not buying his.

SUPER BOWL-Panthers 30, Broncos l6: It comes down to the QBs, and Newton outplays Manning in Peyton's last game.

I'd bet on Panthers over the Pats . . . but not unless I got some odds. Too many possibilities at this point.

[Thomas Collins]

It's plausible to me that any of them could win, CT. The Panthers were the strongest during the season and in their first playoff game, so I'm going with them. I hope I'm wrong about the Pats, but the offensive line has been trouble for the Pats this year.

[henry]

TC, yes. Always go for 2. You have complete control of your fate if you go for it, if you kick the extra point for a tie you give the other team a better chance to beat you. The problem is these NFL coaches call games defensively (I assume to keep their jobs).

[Cecil Turner]

I hope I'm wrong about the Pats, but the offensive line has been trouble for the Pats this year.

Just based on the way they looked (and how bad the Broncos looked) last game, I'd say they have a pretty good chance to advance.

And I agree any could win, and the Panthers are the favorites, but at this point I doubt they should be considered an odds-on bet. After tomorrow . . .

[Matt]

I haven't looked at all of the scientific analyses, but since the Times pointed to Prof. Leonard as the standard-bearer, I did watch his video. He makes at least three obvious scientific errors, all of which undermine his analysis, one quite seriously.

In defending the measured pressures of the Patriots’ balls as within the expected range, Leonard first presents a bunch of computations in which some quantities are shown to two significant figures (assumed temperatures at the times of the pressure measurements), some are shown to three significant figures (the pressure measurements themselves), and the result is inexplicably shown to four significant figures. This creates an implied accuracy that is not supported by the underlying data.

Second, Leonard presents his computations using an assumed input figure for the atmospheric pressure that is based on the average atmospheric pressure at sea level at 15 degrees Celsius. Gillette Stadium is 88 meters above sea level, and the outside temperature was 10.5 degrees Celsius at game time and has been assumed to be 8.9 degrees Celsius at halftime. It was, in fact, a rainy day, and the reported sea-level barometric pressure in East Foxboro around game time was approximately 29.77 inches and falling, slightly below normal atmospheric pressure, and materially below standard pressure at the given altitude and temperature (sea-level pressure at halftime was approximately 29.69 inches). This may seem picayune, but it does materially affect the computations.

Third, and most seriously, when Leonard asserts that the Patriots’ balls were within the expected pressure range, he averages the measurements for all of the balls, instead of looking at the balls individually. This is scientifically indefensible, as these are not repeated measurements of the same quantity, but rather measurements of different balls that may have begun the day at different pressures and that – according to the data – entered the locker room at halftime at materially different pressures. If the balls are treated as separate data points instead of an undifferentiated mass measurement, and if Leonard’s figure for the expected pressure is adjusted even slightly upward to account for the first two errors, the data show that 8 of the 11 balls were below the predicted pressure, and five of those were significantly below the prediction – discrepancies that are difficult to explain based on the Ideal Gas Law.

So, based solely on Prof. Leonard’s analysis and its immediately obvious flaws, it seems hard to me to say that the scientific evidence refutes the theory that the Patriots tampered with the balls. In fact, the evidence seems to support the conclusion that about half of the balls were underinflated by small but measurable amounts. I can see why the league (and the fans outside New England) would view this data, together with the entire body of evidence – the video, the suggestive text messages, and the destruction of cellphone evidence – as fairly unequivocal, if circumstantial, evidence of cheating.

[Jane]

First of all, the Pats will win.

There is no second.

[Stevie Mac convinced me.]

Tres interessant, Matt. I thought we'd settled that the league was officious.

[Threadkiller]

Science settles it!

The Deflator was allowed to remove both teams' footballs from the custody of the officials despite the clear violation of the written rules.

Glad that is resolved.

[Thomas Collins]

Let's start a new conspiracy theory. The refs forget some of the footballs and gauges to be used for the Chiefs/Pats playoff game last week at the hotel. Mass. State Police transported the forgotten items to Foxboro. Refs and Mass. State Police have been infiltrated by Ernie Adams and Bill Belichick acolytes!

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/01/20/nfl-state-police-pull-off-hail-mary-for-patriots-playoff-game/Wwrr4ucMeNQWFWZJA6AZqI/story.html

[Thomas Collins]

I hope you're right and I'm wrong, Jane. I fear the main aspect of Brady that will be in play tomorrow will not be his balls, but will be his butt, because the Broncos will be sacking him and putting him on his butt all game. But, as I said, I hope I'm wrong.

[maryrose]

Ultimately the best teams will advance
Manning is an experienced athlete
He has loved and played the game since childhood
Brady has a wonderful throwing arm
Sacking him is a good strategy to win the game
Prediction on February court hearing
One game suspension next year
I am still glad about the forfeited draft pick
That seems fair to me

[Porchlight]

Patriots and Panthers looked to me like the stronger teams last week. But New England has struggled at Mile High in the past.

As you all know, I am a Deflategate conspiracy theorist and not a Pats fan, but I thought this was pretty funny:

https://m.facebook.com/MEMES.of.the.NFL/photos/a.333078710072157.76242.332968243416537/1064619910251363/?type=3&source=48&__tn__=E

[narciso]

in other news,

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/01/23/if-the-epa-did-their-job-in-flint-why-did-their-regional-administrator-just-resign/

[Rocco]

If destruction of a cellphone is proof of cheating, then HGH sent to the Peyton Manning* residence, is proof that he's a doper!

Peyton Manning* has nine, one and done's in post season play. Tom Brady has nine AFC Championships.

TC...Blasphemy!

[narciso]

it's not, but as with Bill Cosby it doesn't really matter does it

[Porchlight]

Rocco, it's not proof on its own. It's part of a larger picture. Matt points out several other relevant items. But let's not relitigate 2015. Y'all have a Super Bowl to win. Which I think you will win. :)

[boatbuilder]

My God! This shit again? What is scientifically indefensible is the idea that there was any scientific method to measurement of the damn footballs. Deflategate has been more thoroughly discredited than Mann's hockey stick and the True Believers yet believe.

And TC you obviously didn't watch last week's game.

By the way, when exactly is the NFL going to release those pressure measurements they've been conducting all year?

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Ultimately the best teams will advance...--

Now that the tuck rule is no more. :)

[Rocco]

Speaking of Mann, Steve McIntyre has proof Exponent bodged the numbers to frame Brady. Remember Hide the Decline?

[Man Tran]

Jeebus, some guy teaches a course called Measurement and Instrumentation which happens to be my specialty and I couldn't give a fark cause the whole subject involves some stick and ball activity that should be given up after high school. [ducking] :)

BTW my mentor, a Viennese Jew who grew up under house arrest by the Japs in China helped start that program at MIT after the war.

[maryrose]

I believe that the Panthers will be the winners of Super Bowl 50

[Thomas Collins]

I watched all the games, boatbuilder. The Broncos are being way underrated. The team Denver reminds me of is the 2001 Patriots. Ironically, Manning at the end of his career has become the game manager Brady was at the beginning of his career.

Tuck rule never made sense to me, but the reversal of Brady's fumble was the correct call.

[Rocco]

For Boston fans everywhere

http://national.suntimes.com/national-sports/7/72/2484780/tom-brady-peyton-manning

[boatbuilder, Esq., Lord of All He Surveys]

Yeah, TC, the Broncos scored at will against the vaunted Steel Curtain and Brady was overwhelmed by the Chiefs pass rush.

What I saw was that Brady was able to move the ball easily with Edelman and Gronk back and Manning, who I have always respected as a truly great QB both physically and mentally, simply can't throw the ball anymore. Belechick will move the D-backs up and dare him to throw long.