Paths To Victory

This is how Team Five Thirty Eight earns their paychecks and reputation - a very cool attempt to project primary results and delegate counts to see how Cruz, Trump or Rubio might creep to the nomination:

The GOP’s primary calendar is surprisingly front-loaded with states friendly to insurgents like Trump and Cruz. But because of Republican National Committee rules, all but one of these states will award their delegates on a proportional basis, intentionally making it difficult for any one candidate to build a durable or commanding lead.

Instead, Florida and Ohio, which tend to support more conventional Republicans, are likelier to shape the race’s destiny than Iowa or South Carolina. That’s because they will award a whopping 99 and 72 delegates, respectively, in huge winner-take-all primaries on March 15.

These are the findings of a new joint FiveThirtyEight and Cook Political Report project to map out each top GOP contender’s unique route to amassing the 1,237 delegates required to clinch the nomination at the national convention in Cleveland. Although there is still plenty of time for Trump or Cruz to falter or for another candidate to rival Rubio for the mantle of “establishment” front-runner, for now, this is functionally a three-man race.

I presume they will be updating this as results come in and polls change. Their gist - Rubio will look like Rocky Balboa in the early rounds, but eventually will start landing punches.

Comments

[Jane]

Now that's fascinating!

[PD]

I see DiCaprio is in Davos ripping Big Oil. I wonder whether he, or any of those applauding him, arrived *other* than by private jet?

[Dave (in MA)]

"Paths To Victory", is this the Brady Thread?

Today's the 14th anniversary of the "Snow Bowl" game, known to the rest of the league as the "Tuck Rule" game.

[Thomas Collins]

The 538 analysis makes Trump successfully courting Palin look like a good move. The 538 critters point to Trump's best chance to be assembling a coalition in different parts of the country. The Palin endorsement helps with that.

Because Ohio is a winner take all state, a Kasich victory in NH would make him a real threat to Rubio as the non-Trump/non-Cruz option.

[buccaneer morgan]

Once upon a time, rick Snyder was considered a viable candidate, that time has passed.

[Ann]

A Kasich victory in Ohio is not going to happen, unless he hacked the voting booths.

Where is Captain when I need him?

[Sandy Daze]

narc, thanks for the VN resources link, excellent!

http://www.cc.gatech.edu/fac/Thomas.Pilsch/Vietnam.html

BZ.

[Sandy Daze]

Oopla, sorry CWCD, if was pagar with this link :

http://www.cc.gatech.edu/fac/Thomas.Pilsch/Vietnam.html

BZ, pagar, and thank you.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--I see DiCaprio is in Davos ripping Big Oil.--

I stand with the bear.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

I don't look forward to the wailing and gnashing of teeth if the HGH Kid defeats the Sith Lord and his Tuggee acolytes.

[Porchlight]

Yes, where is Captain?

Hi Ann!

I know I have been derelict in my JOM duties, but I've missed all of you. FB is easier to navigate in the time I have to spend online, but it is no substitute.

[lyle]

I propose Leonardo get air-dropped into Yellowstone back country for realz all by his lonesome. With no icky gunz, either. Jackass.

[Threadkiller]

LOL, Ignatz!

We all stand with the bear!!

[Threadkiller]

CH is vacationing, Porch.

[GUS]

That would be LeoTARDo.

[Porchlight]

Oh, thank you, TK. That's good to hear.

[lyle]

My mistake, Gus.

[Threadkiller]

BTW, it is nice seeing you here, porch.

[Ann]

Hi Porch!

I stand with the bear and the grizzly mama. :)

[henry]

I stand with the bear, but am holding a loaded weapon because I don't trust bears.

[Porchlight]

Thank you, TK. Likewise. Been gone too long.

xoxo, Ann. We are all on quite the rollercoaster!

[Porchlight]

DiCaprio is so gross. I can't recall a single film of his that I've enjoyed.

[lyle]

Agree that it's nice to see you, Porch.

[Beasts of England]

I thought he was excellent in The Aviator.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--DiCaprio is so gross.--

Is he suppose to be like handsome or something? I remember seeing him on that sitcom he was on when he was a teen and thinking "what a funny looking geek."

--I can't recall a single film of his that I've enjoyed.--.

Me neither but I did see about 45 seconds of Blood Diamond wherein he did seem to sport an impressively adept Afrikaner accent.

[Threadkiller]

Was he acting in Gilbert Grape?

[Beasts of England]

Hey Porch!!

[Threadkiller]

Hello Ann!!

The movie about the counterfeiting was enjoyable.

[Porchlight]

Hey, lyle and Beasts!

Actually, I thought he did act well in The Aviator. I just didn't enjoy watching it. Because he's gross. ;)

[Porchlight]

Which movie was that, TK?

[Beasts of England]

I've read a few of the reports on the latest Clinton email problems and, if true, it's very bad. One issue that makes this release different from the earlier releases is that her team previously floated the 'retroactively classified' narrative, but that can't apply to SAP data. It's truly born at that classification, and when you're read-in to the program, you know that for a fact. Stay tuned.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

The Memorandum sidebar indicates Ta-Numbnuts Coates is dissapurnted that Big House Bernie hasn't been shamed into supporting reparations...yet.

[Threadkiller]

Now You See Me, Porch.

Tom Hanks as well.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Beasts I do not know if Hillary-Apollyon will be indicted but take it from me she will never be president. Pass it on.

[Threadkiller]

Oops.

Catch Me If You Can.

[Threadkiller]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/01/19/_30_rock_2011_plot_involved_canadian_presidential_eligibility.html

Silly.

[Ann on iPad]

Beasts, the one thing we can thank Obama for is slowly killing off the Clinton's. It's been a fun day,

[jimmyk]

Seems this will be a test of the oft-quoted hypothesis that Hillary could murder a homeless person on live television and still be cheered on by the media.

[Michael (fpa Patriot4Freedom)]

Porchlight - It's great to see you back here!

I was thinking of you, and hoping that you weren't being constrained in posting by the leftist swells in the stacks where you work.

[jimmyk]

And yes, nice to see you Porch. How are you and Iowahawk hitting it off? Seems from his tweets that he managed to move to the only place in Texas as liberal as Chicago.

[lyle]

LeoTardo's South African accent in Blood Diamond was pretty impressive. I got to hang around several S. Africans in Australia many years ago. The Aussies struggled with the accent, which I found fascinating.

[buccaneer morgan]

Yes both of those films, I thought blood diamonds substandard.

[Michael (fpa Patriot4Freedom)]

My two cents . . .

I have *always* thought Sarah Palin was a fairly solid conservative, and was treated badly by both the MFM and the GOPe.

But I wonder how the Tea Party members and the evangelical right who support her will react to her support for the Trumpster. I don't think they support the Trumpster by and large, and I think this will probably end up hurting Sarah's image/reputation in the long run.

I know that I won't hold her in the same esteem I once did.

[caro]

Hi, Porch!

JiB, sometimes going down steps backwards is easier. Hope your knee is better today.

[Porchlight]

Dang it, Typepad ate my post. That's what I get for staying away...

[Clarice]

Apparently, Cruz ticked her off.

[Beasts of England]

Catch Me If You Can was another great movie and he was impressive in it, as well.

[lyle]

I was a yuge SP fan circa 2008 and I harbor a deep revulsion and anger over how she was allowed to be eviscerated by the Uniparty™. I think less of her now in the sense I think less of her--period--image-wise or frequently.

[Porchlight]

Anyway, retracing - hi Michael, jimmyk, and caro! No problems at work, but there is a long election ahead. ;)

Haven't seen Iowahawk since late September, but he seems to be enjoying himself. Today I was noticing that he is insufficiently admiring of Fleetwood Mac and yacht rock, as expressed on Twitter. Even I had an epiphany late in life as regards the Eagles.

TK, I've heard great things about Catch Me If You Can.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Gird up your loins in preparation for shockdom; David Brooks has the vapors over Trump and Cruz. Thinks they'll wreck the Republican Party. Thinks the GOPe needs to mobilize to save a party friendly to Quislings like him.

He provokes me to look upon his wretched carcass as the Jews did upon the loathsome Amorites.

[DJT]

" her--period--image "

Does it look like her whatever?

[Porchlight]

Cruz is cozying up to Beck who has gone out of his way to disparage Palin. Politics ain't beanbag.

[Beasts of England]

Reparations? Yeah, that'll pull the dems across the finish line. Can you imagine what would happen if Bernie endorsed the idea and forced Cankles to do the same? Was it Fort Marcy Park?

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Gee, Michael Gerson thinks the same thing.
We've almost enough ingredients gathered to make a large bowl of grey, disgusting, porridgy mush.

[Threadkiller]

Apparently, Cruz ticked her off.

Cruz's endorser did...

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/09/14/exclusive-the-real-reason-for-sarah-palins-falling-out-with-glenn-beck/

[Threadkiller]

What porch said.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Why the heck is Cruz cozying up to Beck?
For the vital Mormon vote in Nevada?

He's not doing himself any favors with Evangelicals by doing so.

[Porchlight]

I don't get it either, Iggy.

[Threadkiller]

Maybe Ted can convert him.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Beck does not seem very stable.
And I consider that a polite understatement.

[Clarice]

It is a polite understatement--he's mad as a hatter.

[lyle]

"Blood coming out of her eyes or wherever..."

[Beasts of England]

Gerson and Brooks couldn't be more clueless. The ideas and proposed remedies in their articles are precisely the reason that Trump is ascendant.

[Michael (fpa Patriot4Freedom)]

Beasts - Missed your anniversary last week, but wanted to say "Congrats" nonetheless. Now *that* is some truly good news.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Bearing in mind I'm the guy who said voting based on who we think can win is not too great a criterion, how does Trump overcome being dead last with Independents at -27%?
It's not like anyone doesn't know who he is so they'll suddenly change their minds.

[Threadkiller]

how does Trump overcome being dead last with Independents

Former Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain said Tuesday that he gets countless calls into his radio program from black women who are leaving the Democratic Party to support Donald Trump

http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jan/19/herman-cain-donald-trump-winning-over-black-women/

Let the independents run to Kasich.

[Captain Hate on the iPad]

Where is Captain when I need him?

I am tanned, rested and ready to kick some RINO mailman son's doofus ass. I'm flying back to the frozen tundra of Ahia tomorrow.

[Strawman Cometh]

local news followed the SP Trump endorsement with the Track (sp) arrest

[buccaneer morgan]

This ahia strategy, sounds a little like Giuliani's last stand, as for florida, well that's a whole other kettle of fish.

[glasater]

At duplicate bridge today I was reminded by a long time gambler of a bet we'd made a couple of months ago for one hundred dollars. He's conservative and can't stand Hillary but thinks she's going to win. I took the other side. But I did ask him if Hill's indicted and isn't the candidate what would that do to the bet.. He told me I'd still win..with a long face :-)

[anonamom]

Rubio gave an outstanding answer to a "non-thesist" who asked
why he ran an ad solely about faith:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/430036/marco-rubio-responds-atheist-civility-and-truth

[Threadkiller]

A non-hostile atheist worries about Rubio becoming the "preacher in chief" and remains perfectly silent as Rubio gives a sermon instead of an answer?

Why do all of Rubio's perfect answers seem prepared for the off chance he is asked the perfect question?

I am the tin-foil-hat guy, anonamom. I can't help but notice these things. It started when Megyn Kelly was rushed by "some woman" who reminded her to ask Rubio the only question about veterans at the 1st Fox debate.

The couple of atheists I know would have been like dogs on a hambone if they were called upon in a setting like that. They would be even more rabid if they were filming it.

[Threadkiller]

The guy asking the question, according to the Des Moines Register is "activist atheist" Justin Scott:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/01/19/marco-rubio-responds-atheist-appeals-christians/78982110/

Here he is on Jan 10th explaining how he is going to every candidate asking essentially the same question:
http://mnatheists.org/news-and-media/podcast/1094-secularism-and-the-iowa-caucuses-justin-scott-on-atheists-talk-343-january-10-2016

Scott and Cruz:
http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2016/01/09/sen-ted-cruz-responds-to-the-question-why-should-atheists-vote-for-you/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Rubio knew the question was coming. I'm not saying it wasn't a good sounding answer. I am saying it was a rehearsed sounding answer.

[Threadkiller]

Scott and Santorum:

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2015/11/20/how-rick-santorum-would-reach-out-to-conservative-atheists/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[anonamom]

I guess I am short of the tinfoil hat, though I am getting there on other topics TK--I did note the questioner was incredibly polite (as you say--for an atheist ;-) ) as he listened to the lengthy response. Can I get a few points for that??

It does play like a longer commercial. But I've not been to any of these meet and greets since going to one of Mo Udall's in Ann Arbor, back when dinosaurs walked the planet. I guess that would have been for the '76 election.

[anonamom]

And to me, every single thing out of Rubio's mouth that I have heard in the past six months sounds rehearsed.

IVR (I'll Vote Republican, per jmh's lexicon)

[Threadkiller]

You get many points for that, and other things, anonamom! ;-)

His questioning and listening is part of his style:

Justin Scott

Full disclosure: I'm very liberal but as an atheist activist I feel like it's important for the sake of getting in front of candidates and politicians to remain somewhat neutral, especially when asking them about their stances concerning issues that affect atheists/non-theists/secularists. 

He doesn't seem to like Trump:

Finally I thanked him[Santorum] for not wearing a dumbass red "Make America Great Again" hat (that was probably made in China).

https://m.facebook.com/friendlyatheist/posts/10156277698095080

I thought Trump would be the liberal non-evangelical's wet dream?

[Threadkiller]

...are part...

[Threadkiller]

Scott and Huckabee:

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2016/01/09/mike-huckabee-answers-atheists-questions-at-iowa-rally/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[Threadkiller]

Scott and Christie:

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2015/12/31/chris-christie-i-just-dont-see-how-republicans-are-trying-to-erode-churchstate-separation/

I'll quit filling the thread with similar links now.

[Threadkiller]

Glenn Beck lit into former Alaska governor Sarah Palin after her endorsement today of GOP presidential frontrunner Donald Trump. The radio host then announced that he would be joining Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) this weekend for a campaign rally in Waterloo, Iowa...

...Beck and Cruz had previously worked together for a border relief effort in 2014 to bring soccer balls, teddy bears, and other humanitarian aid to illegal immigrant children.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/01/19/cruz-and-beck-join-forces-at-waterloo-to-campaign/

Waterloo? I wonder if they will run into Justin Scott?

[Threadkiller]

Trump Is Right About Cruz's Presidential Eligibility

http://reason.com/archives/2016/01/20/trump-is-right-about-cruzs-presidential

Back to bed for me.

[Jack is Back (but On Alert with his Percocet and Prune Juice )]

I am surprised that anyone who visits a political junkie blog everyday would be shocked or puzzled that politicians plant questions, rehearse answers, scripts meetings and disscusions. If you want them outside their comfort zone, you need unscripted one-on-ones or editorial board meetings. Even, the debates are over ripe for "candidate control" due to the length of response and the general rule that if your name comes up you can respond.

If the question was planted and the answer rehearsed, so what. He got his message out and editorialized in a major conservative news site prior to the primary in a state known for going "evangelical". Smart move in my opinion.

[Threadkiller]

Not saying it was a dumb move, or that I am shocked by it.

I'm saying that Rubio is an obvious phony that a major conservative news site has in their preferred stack.

[jimmyk]

I agree with anonamom that Rubio always sounds scripted. Not the worst thing in the world if he's saying the right things, as it partly means he's very prepared, in the sense of having studied hard. The problem is that like an actor reading lines, it often doesn't come off as 100% sincere or from the heart.

Of course he wouldn't be the first politician to sound that way, and it doesn't mean he isn't sincere. It's just a style flaw, at last I hope.

[Porchlight]

I just think he's too green. Cruz is the same age but seems older.

Cap'm, I feel sorry for the mailman's son!

[anonamom]

This is amusing, isn't? I say Rubio sounds rehearsed, while holding Jeb in low regard for not being able to answer questions I think he should have anticipated (brother, Iraq).

There's no pleasing momma...

Hey porch! Missed you.

[Porchlight]

Hey anonamom! Thanks.

I think he sounds rehearsed, too. I saw him speak on foreign policy a year or so ago. No notes, which was good, but still a bit wooden. But those are style issues as jimmyk noted. My larger concern is toughness. He would get totally rolled in DC, I think.

[Centralcal on iPad]

About Sarah Palin - I don't know what I think anymore. I have always been a big fan of her. FNC ran lengthy video excerpts of her endorsement remarks with Trump at her side. I found her shrill and unwatchable. I was tired from work, so maybe that affected my perception.

[Clarice]

I don't think this is a good year to be the sort of pundit who opines on who is electable.

[Marlene]

One year from today is Inauguration Day! It is going to be a wild ride.
Ccal,I agree about Palin. I always liked her. Last night she seemed angry,of course,she has her reasons. I always complain about Hillary's mean teacher voice and Sarah was almost as bad.

[Jack is Back (but On Alert with his Percocet and Prune Juice )]

What a GOPe "spinning head" looks like before it explodes: Donald Trump is The Price We Pay For Sarah Palin.

http://thefederalist.com/2016/01/20/donald-trump-is-the-price-we-pay-for-sarah-palin/

via Rick Wilson, natch!

The more they keep pumping that dog, the more I gravitate toward Trump.

[Janet]

Same for me, Centralcal.

[Marlene]

Good to see you Porch! I also agree about Rubio.
Re: the mailman's son,he has been running non-stop ads in NH for months. I looked at a list of campaign events in the Manchester paper and he has the most events scheduled of any candidate leading to the primary.

[buccaneer morgan]

Yes Wilson of the Giuliani campaign, which in retrospect, we could have done worse and did. Still trying to get that parrot to boom.

Our country was founded on faith, to believe in nothing is foolhardy

[buccaneer morgan]

Seriously who cares about his pet peeve, when there are bigger issues.

[Threadkiller]

Palin has always sounded that way.

[new lurker]

Unlike a lot of you here, I have never been a big fan of Palin. (My husband likes her very much, though.) Last night I found her shrill and angry and also seemed like an opportunist ie supporting Trump and maybe getting some kind of position in his administration. A shame. As for Glen Beck, he is crazy and FNC was so smart to get rid of him when they did. Why is Ted Cruz aligning with him? Who knows?

[buccaneer morgan]

Well beck did show some wisdom initially subsequently he has shown himself to be high strung,how is this not a Howard beale moment?

[new lurker]

Howard Beale in what way, buc?