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February 03, 2016

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Dave (in MA)

The Marquis of Queensbury was stupid, fat and ugly.

Sbw iphone

Re: Brian Williams

Watched the latest Bond flick w/ my offspring and could not help thinking the villain looked like Brian Williams, especially the lopsided smirk.

narciso

I never figured how he would come in first or a strong second, narratives are all that matter,
the only caveat could have megyn and wallace tag team going into the hawkeye cauci,

Jeff Dobbs

Carp. Now I'm on the same damn page as Scaredburro.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/02/02/scarborough_ted_cruz_knew_where_to_look_for_votes_like_obama_in_2008_light_years_ahead_of_the_field.html

I'm going to say something that might get some of the Obama people that ran that campaign who were friends of ours upset by comparing, but the only comparison I have ever seen to organization and a turn out operation like Ted Cruz's is Barack Obama," Scarborough observed.

"Here is a guy who knew where every vote was," Scarborough said of Cruz. "He got the hell beat out of him for two weeks. The momentum was behind him. He plummeted in the polls. The gold standard, the Des Moines Register plummeted in the polls."

"Ted Cruz changed the electorate, was light years ahead of the field in this turn out model," Scarborough said. "By the way, if you're waking up this morning you say, 'oh, all the polls suck.' No. This was about Ted Cruz knowing where every one of his votes were like nobody but Barack Obama in 2008."

I wasn't even looking for that. I was just heading to RCP to see if there were any new polls . . . and the link was there staring me in the face.

narciso

wouldn't come out,

Porchlight

But he overperformed relative to the polls.

True. But Iowa polls are notoriously unreliable (for the GOP at least), whereas NH not so much.

"Relative to the polls" won't be so comforting if the polls have Trump by 20 and he "only" wins by 10.

Dave (in MA)

Fun FB conversation I've been having with a moonbat FOAF, in a thread where someone else posted the Muslims/Gun Onwers/Welfare hypocrisy meme that's been going around...

Jeanne: Oh for Petes sake both Welfare and Food Stamp use ARE at the lowest they've ever been, there is no money to "support" the needy/hungry or so the sheeps are told. baaaa. got to love the memes!

- · February 1 at 7:45am
Dave: Um, no. http://www.fns.usda.gov/.../default/files/pd/SNAPsummary.pdf.

- · Yesterday at 1:53am
Jeanne: Dave TY for your supporting info, however I'll stick w sources known to me. 21 states have drastically cut back providing food stamps for single adults. The choice was work or volunteer for 20 hrs a week. They didn't, benefit cut off. HUGE "savings." Mass alone changed it's cash laws long ago, more "savings".
- · Yesterday at 7:01am

Dave: Jeanne: You have better info than those who administer the program. Well, OK then.
- · 22 hrs
Jeanne: No need to be a smart arse Dave, simply read a decent, quality, newspaper,get out in the world, pay attention, volunteer, talk to the front line people, open your eyes, continue hiding w a computer whatever
- · 2 hrs

Dave: So the info from the actual government department responsible for administering food stamps isn't good enough, I have to subscribe to your favorite paper?

------------------
Even the regime's own data passed thru their own filters isn't good enough when it doesn't jibe with Teh Narrative.

Beasts of England

Why isn't Cruz part of the discussion in New Hampshire?

Miss Marple

And might I point out that until about a month ago no one thought Trump would win Iowa.

Trump places second in Iowa, ground zero for Christian conservatives: HA! HA! LOSER!

Cruz places 5th in New Hampshire: To be expected. He's a winner, though.

James D

Are we talking against Dems? Because I'm pretty sure a decent chunk of them would revert right back to those rules in the general.

This is why I do not want to see Rubio as our candidate, and why I think polls showing him as the most electable right now are not a useful predictor for the general election. I don't believe for one second that he will fight back effectively against the Dems when they turn their guns on him in earnest.

I think Trump would, and I think Cruz would, and that's about it among the current candidates.

NK

My completely uninformed NH Guess:

Rubio, Kascish, trump, Cruz... goodbye Jeb.

narciso

rubio was endorsed by the register he came in third,

Jeff Dobbs

Beasts:
Why isn't Cruz part of the discussion in New Hampshire?

Look at any write up on the candidates' path to the nomination - and Cruz winning NH is not a part of it. Sure, he needs to be top 3ish - but his path does not require a win there, nor will his efforts there be anywhere near what they were in IA or what they will be in SC.

centralcal

No, Cruz didn't cheat.

http://www.dailywire.com/news/3099/no-cruz-didnt-win-iowa-cheating-heres-why-trumps-ben-shapiro

NK

NH-- is important because of Jeb/GOPe. If Jeb finishes 5th, GOPe will pull the plug on him and go all-in on Rubio in SC and then Supe Tues. If Trump, Cruz Rubio and Jeb all finish in a pack together, the whole thing gets very complicated.

NK

US Naval Aviation maxim:

" if ya ain't cheatin'... ya ain't tryin' hard enough."

jimmyk

Look at any write up on the candidates' path to the nomination - and Cruz winning NH is not a part of it.

But presumably the deeper reason is because the voter pool there is not conservative/evangelical enough for him? And/or that he choose to put resources elsewhere (NC, NV, etc.)?

And what happened to "Live Free or Die" New Hampshire? I know lots of Bay Staters moved there, but those are presumably Dems.

henry

What's JEB! up to today... seems quiet in his camp.

Threadkiller

But he overperformed relative to the polls.

True. But Iowa polls are notoriously unreliable (for the GOP at least), whereas NH not so much.

Porch, Cruz can overperform the polls but Carson can't.

;-)

narciso

he was on fox business or something, pledging to voom, right out of the cage,

Beasts of England

Path to the nomination wasn't where I was headed on that question, sorry. I meant, if Cruz (the guy I support...) is all that and a bag of chips, then shouldn't he be running near the top anywhere - regardless of the so-called path? I truly don't understand it.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

From the lurking unit's Bill Gross link;

The housing bubble and the Fed’s neglect of it....

Neglect? Would that they had neglected it.
Caused it/enabled it/worsened it, I'm on board with.
'Neglect', not so much.

BTW Gross has a writing [and a talking] style that is hard to absorb.
He goes along fine and then writes something you have to go back over a half dozen times to even get what he's trying to say.

NK

jimmyk-- NH is an 'open primary' so total population is vital. And Southern NH is basically a NE version of NOVA, completely flipped politically in our lifetimes.

Jeff Dobbs

jimmyk:
But presumably the deeper reason is because the voter pool there is not conservative/evangelical enough for him?

Absolutely.

And/or that he choose to put resources elsewhere (NC, NV, etc.)?

Coming out of NH, Cruz will be making the same type of statements Trump is about IA ---- "they said I would come in 55th place, so coming in 3rd gives us a real boost" "we didn't spend much there, but still so many voters were behind us" etc...

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--The Marquis of Queensbury was stupid, fat and ugly.--

That was his cousin.
The Marquess of Queensberry [had to look it up] was a canny, slim and handsome lout.

Beasts of England

Rand Paul out.

henry

Beasts, who gets his voter?

jimmyk

NH is an 'open primary' so total population is vital.

In 2012 yes, but this time the D side is hotly contested, so I wouldn't think crossover would be such an issue.

Appalled

Porch

The fact that Cruz plays hardball, and can be pretty ruthless about it is, I think, well known by now. If a voter is looking for a nice guy playing by clean toga rules (to poach a phrase from Clarice), they are probably one of the 5 or 6 people voting for Jeb.

A Trumpian point of vulnerability seems to be his own thin skin, as revealed by his tweety whining. When he goes OTT about the mean things other candidates have done to him, he might excite his core voters, but he probably just continues to annoy the persuadable voters, and may inspire people to come to the polls just to vote against him.

DebinNC

Pope Francis, who in U.S. recetly asked for a prayer of forgiveness for those people/entities blocking illegals, will be part of major events in El Paso/Juarez in/around Feb. 17, which is ~a week after the NH primary and 3 days before the SC primary. Super Tuesday is March 1. I think Rubio, currently the only viable Catholic in the race (Jeb/Christie), will have the most to lose or gain from whatever the pope has to say. Ditto Biden if he enters at some point.

Beasts of England

Me, henry - on to South Carolina!!

Miss Marple

Well, something happened, because now this Cruz supporter is trying to lay the blame on Rubio:

http://politistick.com/uh-oh-was-marco-rubio-guilty-in-the-ben-carson-dropout-rumor/

Gus

They should ban Corona, it's led to several concussions.

Rick Ballard

"may inspire people to come to the polls just to vote against him."

Quite a few people, in fact. There's no question about him being a draw and the fact this is going to be a repudiation election, with low turnout in the general, will become apparent after the blow off.

Miss Marple

Appalled,

I prefer Trump, who at least does his own dirty work right up there where people can refute it or not.

I am not fond of people who have weaelly minions doing his dirty work for him, followed by an unctuous apology to his "good friend".

Pffft.

NK

NH-- but indies will vote primarily in the Repub primary IMO.

Porchlight

Appalled,

I'm not looking for clean toga and as far as I can tell, clean toga people aren't Trump (or Cruz) supporters in the first place. Trump does come off whiny, but I think he has ulterior motives. He can be whiny and still achieve them (sometimes).

As for the whininess, I certainly don't like it, but it might appeal to a segment of his support that thinks he's being unfairly treated. Same as Hillary making out like she was broke coming out of the WH, or there's a glass ceiling or whatever. I mean it's gross, but it works, and since I'm not clean toga, I can live with it.

Similar to the Cruz supporters who can live with the rumors about Carson, I guess.

For what it's worth, the anti-Trumpers predicted a meltdown in Trump's concession speech Monday night. What did they get? Short and gracious. So he does have plenty of self-control when he wants to. It was Cruz who probably needed to wrap it up and get offstage a bit more quickly.

Beasts of England

Not sure if this is on topic or not, but I grabbed a bourbon-marinated Salmon filet from Publix last night and it was incredible. Pan seared with a little butter and olive oil. Nothing to it...

Porchlight

In 2012 yes, but this time the D side is hotly contested, so I wouldn't think crossover would be such an issue.

It could be vital to Trump, if the suppositions about his appeal to non-Rs are true. Agree that loyal Dems are going to be duking it out over Clinton/Sanders and won't be as likely to make mischief on the R side.

NK

Here's the take of one of America's best common sense thinkers Thomas Sowell-- not a Trump guy:http://townhall.com/columnists/thomassowell/2016/02/03/after-iowa-n2113745?utm_source=BreakingOnTownhallWidget_4&utm_medium=story&utm_campaign=BreakingOnTownhall

jimmyk on iPhone

Beasts, I prefer my bourbon straight from the bottle.

Captain Hate

I don't think either Clinton ever pays retail for services other do.

Gus

So does Rodham Jimmyk

Common man

Testing again

Common man

Hmmmmmm

henry

Dave in MA, from our Chitown lurker:

https://twitter.com/pdacosta/status/694933354081292290

Sue

Where did CNN get the information that Carson was going to Florida and skipping NH & SC and attending the prayer breakfast?

Appalled

For what it's worth, the anti-Trumpers predicted a meltdown in Trump's concession speech Monday night. What did they get? Short and gracious. So he does have plenty of self-control when he wants to.

Trump has not gotten where he is by having uncontrolled vulgar temper tantrums. He's gotten there by playing a man who seems like he might have uncontrolled vulgar temper tantrums. As much as I would like to, I don't discount Trump's ability to win the nomination. What Iowa has done is give Cruz just as much a chance of taking this thing.

rse

Anybody here read John Mauldin's very long letter about a brokered convention that came out overnight?

Jeff-I have posted some about Cruz's data operation, including links to Cambridge Analytica and its OCEAN Framework. I think there's no doubt that he plans to rely on the church network for the DC primary.

One thing that worries me is that the networks will let sound bytes like "to God be the glory" just hang out there. At some point though if he is the frontrunner someone is going to do a story on Dominionism and his dad's ties to it. It will come at a most inopportune time.

Likewise hyping of Rubio and the Gang of 8 and whatever his John Edwards' type problem is will come AFTER he is the nominee.

common man

One more test

henry

the common man is testy today.

common man

OK I appear to be totally and completely locked out of posting under the handle everyone would recognize as me. First off is anyone else having such an issue?

NK

From a constitutional perspective, this is the worst thing Obummer has done. Contrast this with GWB appointing Fitz: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/430706/obama-hillary-clinton-email-problem

Jeff Dobbs

Heh.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/donald-trump-nominated-2016-nobel-peace-prize-1541612

common man

On the heels of Iowa caucuses having Republican turnout swell to far beyond Democrat turnout ( for first time in memory and maybe ever ), Gallup released this AM their analysis of red versus blue states in partisan composition. And for the first time ever, red states outnumber blue states. This is never spoken about but the fundamental change that Zero has imposed on his own Liar Party, and a reason why any Democrat is going to struggle to succeed him:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/188969/red-states-outnumber-blue-first-time-gallup-tracking.aspx?g_source=WWWV7HP&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

lyle

the common man is testy today.

Without Fanfare...

Texas Liberty Gal

Porch - as more evidence comes out its clear its Carson's team is responsible for this - you can't expect Cruz's campaign to sit on this info. And in my twitterfeed Trump is being blasted as a sore loser so I don't think its a smart move by him but you could be right.

http://www.trevorloudon.com/2016/02/cnn-not-cruz-staff-responsible-for-ben-carson-campaign-suspension-rumor/

Buckeye

"I didn't realize what the Ivy League plays is actually called "football"."

I can guarantee that it wouldn't pass for it in Cowlumbus, Ahia.

Probably not in Tuscaloosa either.

DrJ

lyle, that Copeland piece is a blast to play.

lyle

I figured you'd be the one to get the reference, DrJ.

Thomas Collins

Tell that to the 1919 Harvard team, which thumped Oregon 7-6 in the Rose Bowl played on Jan. 1, 1920. Nick Saban's and Urban Meyer's boys would be shaking in their cleats if they had to go back in a time machine and play the 1919 Crimson!

Thomas Collins

Tell that to the 1919 Harvard team, which thumped Oregon 7-6 in the Rose Bowl played on Jan. 1, 1920. Nick Saban's and Urban Meyer's boys would be shaking in their cleats if they had to go back in a time machine and play the 1919 Crimson!

cindyk...Rick Ballard's Groupie

A few years back I posted with "Rick Ballard's Groupie"...I would like to reiterate that....

Beasts of England

Yeah, but our players are smarterer.

Texas Liberty Gal

Now Rush is reading the article linked below that it was actually Rubio's campaign who was guilty for pushing the Carson dropout rumor.

http://politistick.com/uh-oh-was-marco-rubio-guilty-in-the-ben-carson-dropout-rumor/

Miss Marple

I already posted that this morning, Texas Liberty Gal.

Also left out of this for some reason is Steve King's participation in this.

I am not so easily diverted. It's quite possible both campaigns contributed.

henry

LOL TLG, give it another hour or two and we'll find out Trump started the rumor. Aids (and Rep King) are such nitwits regardless of campaign that hired them.

Threadkiller

A Canadian/Cuban, a Cuban, and a black American go into a Caucus...

Buckeye

Our players are not smarterer.

You can tell by their arrest records.

NK

Bravo Zulu to Lyle and Doc J for their musical literacy.

BoE winz the internetz for his Alabama players are smarter comment.

Thomas Collins

Palin scorches Cruz.

https://www.facebook.com/sarahpalin/posts/10153929150093588

common man

The common man is quite shocked to find out in a caucus, that delegates were trying to persuade others while standing around for hours in a drafty cold gymnasium. The nerve!

Threadkiller

A Canadian/Cuban, a Cuban, and a black American go into a Caucus...

Threadkiler

A Canadian/Cuban, a Cuban, and a black American go into a Caucus...

Threadkiller

Pow!

common man

Ballard has groupies? No doubt then he is the MAN.

Jack is Back!

Buckeye,

i believe Harvard has more starting QB's in the NFL than OSU does:)

Texas Liberty Gal

MM-sorry didn't see your post. I have trouble believing Carson had to go home to get a change of clothing!! Have they not heard of dry cleaners? Pretty lame reason. And nobody did anything wrong. Carson's team was sloppy in its press release about Carson going back to FL. There was more then one press release that made it seem like Carson was leaving campaign. To blame other candidates for playing hardball politics is not really fair. At least he's not making outrageous accusations like Trump. And at least Cruz was classy enough to apologize.

Miss Marple

Obama's on TV at the mosque trying to make me feel sorry for Muslims.

My answer: They can go back home or start turning in terrorists. Their choice.

By the way, a lot more sympathy for these poor Muslims who "feel afraid" than he gave to the victims of San Bernadino.

lyle

Insty has this link today. Patterico had it yesterday with a paranthetical note that the overall slant of this magazine is decidedly not conservative:

http://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/the-top-10-things-you-need-to-know-about-ted-cruz/

narciso

so if they decide not to charge cosby, besides that outpost becoming like conquistador coffee headquarters, where does he go to get his reputation back?

Threadkiller

Hardball is OK, but Harderball is not.

NK

Wait? Carson lives in Fla? so Carson has bailed on Md and moved to no income tax Fla?, and OL still lives in Md.... and Mass? THIS DOES NOT COMPUTE!

narciso

so if they decide not to charge cosby, besides that outpost becoming like conquistador coffee headquarters, where does he go to get his reputation back?

Miss Marple

Trump shoots his mouth off on live TV and doesn't blame others for what he does.

Two can play this game.

I will not accept that when Cruz does something it's just "hardball" but when Trump does something "oh, the humanity."

Now here is Sabato on setting up for Trump to hopefully lose. The political class won't accept outsiders, apparently.

Threadkiller

Hardball is ok but Harderball is not.

Threadkiller

Too much coffee!

Jeff Dobbs

Hey hey hey!!!! New poll in NH just came out showing . . . JEBmentum!!!

http://www.harperpolling.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/16-02-nh-gop-primary-toplines.pdf?sfvrsn=0

Trump 31
Cruz 9
Kasich 12
Rubio 10
Bush 14
Christie 6
Fiorina 5
Carson 3
Paul 3

narciso

sabato, what was that line about cromwell, again?

henry

NK, apparently taxes are like brain surgery.

narciso

spreadsheets are certainly not their bag,

Marlene

For some reason,Chris Christie is really going after Rubio. He's po'ed that Marcomentum rolled into NH and is grabbing the media spotlight. Christie and Kasich have spent more time in NH than Rubio. Rubio received the endorsement of Susan Duprey,who was Ann Romney's chief of staff in 2011/2012. Duprey and her husband are long time establishment type Republican activists in NH.
By the way,Ayotte is not endorsing a candidate in the primary. She's fighting for her own political life.

Beasts of England

First banning football, now ¡Jeb! in second place? Grrr.

common man

Rand Paul out of the race, but no one even noticed...

middyfeek

You mention Texas, Pennsy and Alabama but you left out Ohio. Without the football program THE Ohio State Univ. would have no reason to exist

Oh wait, I forgot they would still have the marching band.

henry

gee common man... that was mentioned a couple times earlier on the thread (possibly last thread). The press hasn't noticed? They have Trump to fellate to hide Hillary's meltdown.

NK

" the finest band in all the land" amirite?

common man

Would anyone even care to dot the i?

Old Lurker

NK, you been talkin to my wife?

narciso

in other news of import:


http://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2016/02/03/after-four-months-russias-campaign-in-syria-is-proving-successful-for-moscow/

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