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February 02, 2016

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Jeff Dobbs

Iowa is soooooooo yesterday.

maryrose

New Hampshire is the new black
Jeff Have a great birthday!
No groundhog shadow

Jeff Dobbs

I don't get on twitter much, but I do have to admit I've got Trump's twitter feed up. I'm very interested in how he will use it in the immediate aftermath of last night. So far no tweets since 4:30 yesterday.

Does he stay with the magnanimity of his speech last night for a while? Or is he going to start ripping into other candidates like he was doing with Cruz leading up to the caucus?

If so, does he target Rubio as a threat because of his surge and over-performance in IA? Or does he continue with Cruz (who's still second in NH polling)? Or does he take on GOPers hoping to make a stand in NH like Kasich, Christie or Jeb!?

Jane

I'm telling you, it's gonna be Rubio v Biden in November, and hoards of fun watching the democrats implode!

Captain Hate

New Hampshire, another nothingburger state that inexplicably gets an undue amount of influence at the behest of the Uniparty.

clarice

I haven't picked my choice but I do think porch's analysis on the prior thread is correct.

henry

Heh, Huck ended his campaign and the press didn't notice. He can now go on local access with OMalley for their new political / dog walking show

NK

Rubio-Carly v. SloJoe-Fauxchahontas? BIG Repub win, OFA takes over the Dem Party, and it becomes a socialist party like Brit Labour.

Beasts of England

Ending up with Biden at the top of the democrat ticket wouldn't surprise me at all, Jane.

The Infamous Ignatz

My thoughts on the vote tallies from yesterday;

My computer has only let me vote for JamesD once. Is there a workaround?

Old Lurker

Small thing but it pushes my buttons every time I hear it. Here in DC the Pete Peterson Foundation is running a radio spot warning about the $18T and rising in Federal Debt...and asks if we cannot just get along to solve this thing. He goes on to explain that as interest increases it will squeeze out things we want like spending on education, roads and bridges.

Never occurs to him that maybe the feds should not be spending on those things in the first place?

Translation: give us your money, serfs.

Back to the Ledge.

henry

Ig, clear cookies.

The Infamous Ignatz

Pete Peterson has been pissing me off for thirty years, maybe more, with that same bullshit.

Thomas Collins

If The Hill is really over the hill, the Dems will turn to Liz Warren or Deval Patrick or Julian Castro. I'm becoming more and more convinced that the Dems will conclude that Biden is too much of a loose cannon to have at the top of the ticket. Warren-Castro or Patrick-Bayh versus Rubio-Kasich or Cruz-Kasich would be strong possibilities.

Jeff Dobbs

New Thread means new reminder to VOTE VOTE VOTE!

James is still out front by 5 points, but 5 points is not enough.

Make those other authors cry!!!!!

(just kidding, i wish them no ill will. but i am a bit competitive in this kind of stuff)

The Infamous Ignatz

--Ig, clear cookies.--

Then I have to sign back into everything.
James, if you let me know my vote fraud bribe is in the mail I will gladly toss my cookies.

Gus

Rodham is going to continue doing what she's done all of her life........LIE......errrrr....fight for US!!!

How people can't see through her pathetic hack act is a mystery.

Jeff Dobbs

henry:
Ig, clear cookies.

Or put another way, Ig....toss your cookies.

Jeff Dobbs

Dang it! Preview cost me dearly that time.

NK

TC-- we love you guy, but your Baystaterism is showing @11:09.

Thomas Collins

RickB, re your comment on the prior thread about Team Cruz's GOTV operation: If Cruz is the nominee, Team Cruz's GOTV will have to overcome the reality that LIV persuadables in battleground states will be less likely to vote for Cruz than Rubio. I have no idea how to handicap that, but that interplay will be one of the key factors should Cruz be the nominee.

NK

This article sounds correct to me: http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2016/02/02/analysis-xxx-wins-iowa--what-next-n2113313?utm_source=BreakingOnTownhallWidget_4&utm_medium=story&utm_campaign=BreakingOnTownhall

Old Lurker

TC, we all know Biden is lacing up his skates and staring at the Coach...and we know Kerry is too.

What surprises me a little is why Kerry is not using State to undermine the witch even more...and so far seems to be adding bales of hay to the firewall she is building to keep her out of jail.

squaredance

Ig, you can clear you cookies just for that site. Look up how to do that for whatever browser you are using.

squaredance

OL: because he is not that smart.

Thomas Collins

Not at all, NK. My playing poker in the back rooms of Ray Patriarca run Federal Hill establishments in Providence in my yute is showing. Kasich is the best play as Veep. I'll bet any JOMer who is willing to out themselves as a bookie will support me on that. And stranger bedfellows have won than Cruz and Kasich.

Jeff Dobbs

Ah, there it is!

Donald J. TrumpVerified account
‏@realDonaldTrump
My experience in Iowa was a great one. I started out with all of the experts saying I couldn't do well there and ended up in 2nd place. Nice
RETWEETS
981
LIKES
2,964
8:03 AM - 2 Feb 2016

It says 8:03 AM. But I have been refreshing his feed every 10 minutes or so all morning. Huh. Did anyone see it earlier - closer to the timestamp on it? Maybe I'm twittering wrong.

Good tweet. I like it.

Thomas Collins

Kerry as POTUS, OL? I think I'd prefer Comrade Sanders.

Old Lurker

HB, Jeff.

Buckeye

"How people can't see through her pathetic hack act is a mystery."

GUS, never forget that the Dem party has bought and paid for those people.

They do see through it, and half are flocking to the old fart who looks like the guy you saw urinating in a NYC alley.

Captain Hate

How people can't see through her pathetic hack act is a mystery.

I think a lot of them do and are willing to support a deranged fossil like Sanders since the donk bench has been decimated by 404. Some will vote for her in the general, assuming she attains that, out of dogmatic hatred of the GOP; but the enthusiasm for her is nonexistent.

Jeff Dobbs

Ok, it's snarky...but i chuckled...

pourmecoffeeVerified account
‏@pourmecoffee
@realDonaldTrump No exclamation mark? I can't bear to see you like this.

8:08 AM - 2 Feb 2016

Old Lurker

Their egos strain the imagination, TC, but that is one buzz here inside the Beltway. It is hard to keep the coffee off the keyboard every time I read it, true.

henry

Jeff, twitter "curates" our all tweets we see. Not a surprise that they suppressed Trump for you.

Jeff Dobbs

Ah, the time stamps on the tweets are CA time it would appear.

Donald J. TrumpVerified account ‏@realDonaldTrump Because I was told I could not do well in Iowa, I spent very little there - a fraction of Cruz & Rubio. Came in a strong second. Great honor

8:14 AM - 2 Feb 2016

Thomas Collins

I doubt the coverup at State is at the Kerry level. Kerry needs to be seen as a team player while somehow discreetly convincing a friend at State or NSA or CIA or FBI to drop the dimes on The Hill. Lower level Staties who facilitated The Hill's thrashing of our national security have a compelling interest to facilitate the coverup.

Marlene

CH @10:59...ahem, NH is a great state. :) I've mentioned a few times that NH has changed forever. UNH did a demographic study recently. I think it was reported in the NH Union Leader on Sunday and one of the authors was on CNN this morning. 45% of NH residents were not born in the state. The average for other states is 68% of residents being born in a state. The point of the study is that a NH resident is no longer a cranky Yankee like my uncles. A resident of Manchester,Salem,Nashua or Portsmouth is very likely to be commuting to Boston. Think of NH as a northern suburb of Boston.

Jeff Dobbs

RED ALERT!!! James has fallen to second place.

Old Lurker

I know, TC. When there is rot as deep as at State, it is hard to find any solid wood in the log.

Thomas Collins

Yes, Marlene, the Bay State has corrupted the Live Free or Die state! It's not Meldrim Thomson's NH now!

Jane

"Ending up with Biden at the top of the democrat ticket wouldn't surprise me at all, Jane."

Beasts, watching it happen will be better than Christmas!

NK

Marlene-- exactly, SE NH is a New England version of NOVA. Absolutely flipped politically in our lifetimes.
That's why I think Trump deflates badly in NH.

Captain Hate

And stranger bedfellows have won than Cruz and Kasich.

Reagan/Bush.

My hatred for Kasich grows by the day. That Tepid Gas post has a good description of how the stench of his RINOism migrated to Indiana and other adjoining states in the form of his Medicaid expansion. Meanwhile he ran the most AWOL campaign possible against public employee unions because it wasn't a good fit with his nutjob proselytizing.

NK

ThomasC-- to me a Repub Veep is a woman, that's a lock.

PS: Buddy C RIP. He really was loved 30+ years ago in Providence.

henry

mass update from our lurking unit:

tell OL that the debt crossed $19T yesterday afternoon.

And you can tell TC I'll lay 5:1 odds right now, that Kasich blows his entire wad playing "firewall" on NH and will never be the #2 slot.

And Kerry's emails are on Hillary!'s server.

Marlene

NK,TC...the other day we saw a car with a low number (#3) Rhode Island license plate heading north on I-75. Maybe someone important heading home for Buddy's funeral?

NK

henry- "And Kerry's emails are on Hillary!'s server."

Exactly. Kerry's a pimp. He tries to play in both the Clintonista and OFA camps. The LAST thing he wants is all of Hilligula's emails released.

Old Lurker

I know, Mel.

But as we have learned, Lew can monkey with those numbers to cause the real number to remain hidden until they want it to become news. It was probably a close call whether to release the $19T marker on Iowa night or to wait until the usual Friday in a snow storm.

Miss Marple

NK,

If I were Trump I would get the blue collar guys to come vote for me rather than Bernie or the Red Witch.

JOBS.

narciso

Right because dems show they respect women veep candidates, tell me another one.

NK

Sorry MissM-- the Dems don't even pretend to go after white-male working class votes anymore. Some UNION votes left there for the Dems, but not many. The Repubs left many of those votes on the table in '12, perhaps even a winning # of those votes.

Jeff Dobbs

I got James back within 3 points.

But looking at the counter on the poll, it appears it limits votes if they cross a certain fequency. The counter will go up when I vote - but when I refresh the counter goes back down by 1.

(i hope there's no risk of getting the results thrown out by ballot-box stuffing!)

Buckeye

"If I were Trump I would get the blue collar guys to come vote for me rather than Bernie or the Red Witch."

He will. Will be helpful in open primary states.

Miss Marple

If I were Trump and wanted to win NH, I would do the following:

1. Attract blue collar crossover support with detailing the industry which has left New Hampshire.

2. Come out with a specific, detailed plan to get the student loan's off kids backs, like hitting a few universities to pony up some of the cash they have received, making the point that the schools and the government are in cahoots at the expense of students. (Also point out that if everyone gets free education a degree becomes worthless except for a few professions.)

3. Make it plain that while you believe in God you are not a regular church-goer, but you appreciate those who are and will defend them from those who want to kill the influence of religion in this country.

4. Oppose that TPP and expose some of the "bad dealishness" of the thing, as Laura Ingraham has just pointed out on her show. Apparently chapter 10 of the thing pretty much makes us beholden to overseas rulings and negates Congressional sovereignty over our laws.

Sandy Daze

In the last hour or so, one of JamesD's competitors has fired up some person/group, whatever, and at least two hundred "new voters" have propelled that author's measly 15% to 30%.

VOTE VOTE VOTE.

NK

Wait!! those other authors can't stuff the ballot with de-cookied votes.... only we can stuff the box for James with de-cookied votes!

Old Lurker

#2 in any way shape or form will lose (loose?) me and a ton of other people who have played by the rules in place at the time for our kids. Bad idea for anyone who wants to represent me.

Michael (fpa Patriot4Freedom)

There are some interesting changes to the head-to-head matchup numbers from early January to now:

Cruz led Trump, 51 to 43 on Jan. 9 per ABC, for a +8 advantage.

By last weekend, Cruz now leads Trump in the head-to-head matchup by 53 to 35. A gain of +10 over just three weeks.

So, if it does come down to just the two of them, it looks like Trump has a hard ceiling of people who *really* dislike him. Sufficient to cause him to lose a two-man race for the nomination.

Sorry, but I don't know how Rubio stacks up vs. Trump in the head-to-head race.


Dave (in MA)

Pantsuit wants to "finish the job of universal health care coverage" and Comrade Bernie wants to finish what got started in 1917.

DrJ

In other news, we have flurries of global warming falling from the sky. It does happen here, but not that often.

DebinNC

Y'all, let's keep voting for James D's Dream Doctor in the free book trailer contest.

Happiest of birthdays, Jeff!

NK

DaveMa-- shut 'er down. No reason to continue the thread after that comment. Bravo Zulu Dave!

Jeff Dobbs

Good job Sandy. We've caught up . . . . for now.

Miss Marple

Old Lurker,

Well, I also paid for daughter's undergrad.

I am just tired of the GOP getting blamed for those student loans, when it's Obama and the colleges that have done it, assisted by the gullibility of the students.

Beasts of England

Total votes: 816. Total voters: 797.

:::ahem:::

James D. tied at 28%.

Gentlejim

Back in first for James.

Old Lurker

I know, MM. But we finally have to connect consequences to the decisions families make. The second half of your #2 needs to be the message.

Old Lurker

Dem rules, Beasts.

Speaking of which, I heard on the radio just now that Bernie is claiming 5% of the votes in Iowa have gone missing.

Sandy Daze

Fittingly:

"Know Your Enemy" is the enemy....

VOTE

We may not be able to save America from the socialist onslaught, but we can push JamesD over the line.

VOTE (please)

Know Your Enemy is surging ! (Do NOT vote for KYE.)

Sandy Daze

That is,
VOTE for "Dream Doctor by J.J. DiBenedetto"

Beasts of England

The charge of voter fraud should dial the Berntards up to '11'.

Jane

How long does the voting last?

henry

good greif... it takes several votes per minute from each of us to keep James in the lead.

Thomas Collins

Whoa! Lurking friend is challenging me to a bet! But it's a sucker's bet, because lurking friend has the field and I have Kasich (I need better than 5-1 odds if lurking friend has the field). OK, tell lurking friend this: I'll put up a Mike Pastry's mailing to lurking friend against lurking friend sending me a shipping of Armenian delicacies from Eastern Lamejun of Belmont (even if lurking friend happens not to live near Eastern Lamejun, lurking friend can go online to ship). If lurking friend doesn't want Mike's Pastries, he or she can pick his or her dinner, dessert or appetizer dish of choice from wherever. I'll take Kasich as Veep choice no matter who is the nominee. Lurking friend also needs to settle on one Veep critter no matter who is the nominee. If NK is correct about gender and lurking friend picks Haley, I'm already at a disadvantage.

Miss Marple

I cannot tell you how pleased I am to see vote fraud in the dem caucus.

Should make the New Hampshire primary full of outrage. Ha!

By the way, I repeated my explanation of the super-delegates to my daughter. She didn't know about them and this time I explained in great detail how this would allow Hillary to take the nomination even if she doesn't win a bunch of primaries. I also pointed out how they could pull a switcheroo and bring in someone like Biden (whom she has called "The Plagiarist" since she was in the 7th grade).

Appalled

It's fair to say, on GOP side, it is a three man race, but NH may change Rubio's ongoing viability if one of the governors (Kasich, Christie) does well there.

Cruz did fine on percentage -- the fact he did it on the basis of increased turnout is interesting. This probably has some bearing on how the Southern primaries will go. Trump can win but I don't think running on his celebrity and free media will get him to the finish line.

Question to puzzle -- it's been assumed that Cruz and Trump are fighting for the same voters, but what if it is Trump and Rubio?

Looks like I will be voting (without enthusiasm) for Rubio, though Cruz could still persuade me.

clarice

I voted more than once on 2 different days without problems..

Miss Marple

Appalled,

I think the overlap between Cruz and Trump supporters is very small.

Cruz supporters: socially conservative, Constitutional conservative

Trump supporters: anti-trade deals, anti-illegal immigration, pro-America. Not so religious, not so conservative.

I don't dislike Rubio but fear him gullible and easily pushed by those with more clout.

I would probably prefer Rubio over Cruz.

But it doesn't matter, as I don't vote until May.

Porchlight

For those of you who don't want to clear cookies because you don't want to lose your signin info, etc. - for voting purposes I just pick a browser that I don't usually use.

The Infamous Ignatz

Waiting to leave for an appointment and took Square's advice and figgered out how to remove cookies for one site and got JamesD up by 2%.
Gotta go soon so someone else have at it.

Jeff Dobbs

It's when I vote 10 times in 2 minutes that the counter gets stuck for me. I'm sure there's an algorithm that is used to preventlimit totally obviously blantantly ridiculous cheating competing. Which is what I'm attempting, of course.

DebinNC

Rush now quoting McConnell saying "it doesn't make sense" to oppose BOzo at all this year, because it would adversely affect chances of retaining the 24 R 2016 senate seats on the ballot (7 in swing states BOzo won). Ugh.

Marlene

The college tuition/student loan issue is my pet peeve. Because we were young parents,the daughter was in college when we were in our early 40s. Hubby was still growing his business. We didn't buy a camp,a boat,an ATV,a snowmobile or any other status symbols of Maine living. Ha. We saved for her college education.
Of course,that was over 20 years ago. We know millennials who have outrageous college debt. It is not a good situation for them or the society,to start out with such a financial burden. But,the solution has to be better than Bernie waving a magic wand and saying every college student will be debt free.

Old Lurker

Ditto that, Marlene.

Marlene

CNN had an interesting Iowa county map and John King was comparing 2008 and 2012 results with the votes each candidate was gaining in a particular county. He made mention that Rubio was getting votes in what had been Romney precincts,for instance Des Moines suburbs. Another reporter said that she had talked to a voter who was going to caucus for Trump,but at the last minute couldn't do it and switched to Rubio.

Sue

Marlene,

Same here. We did without so our daughters could graduate college debt free. They both did (as did our son in law) which has made opportunities for them they wouldn't have otherwise had, like staying home and raising my grandchildren.

We also paid off all of our debts, including our home mortgage, in 2007, and have lived debt free since. Just in time for Obama to reward people who don't pay their debts. ::grin::

Beasts of England

The Turtle's formula is to not presently oppose Ø in order to save the senate, so that the new senate can oppose Cruz. All hail Duke & Duke!

Captain Hate

Brave McTurtle likes to immediately follow a conservative victory by staking out a RINO position for the future. And those CPAC dumbasses keep inviting him to speak.

Porchlight

Imagine the enormous loss in productivity if everyone struggling to repay a college loan could opt for lesser jobs once that debt is relieved. I personally know at least ten people who say "If I didn't have college loans to pay I wouldn't have applied for that promotion" or the like.

Then again, if natural slackers drop down closer to where they deserve to be in the workforce, it does open up more opportunities for others...

NK

Marlene/OL-- proudest thing I ever did in my life was paying 16 years of tuition (2 kids X HS and college each) without debt for the 2 kids or my wife/I. for 4 years that was over $100K cash money (no financial aid for us) every year when they overlapped. how did we do it? My wife went back to work in 2009 4 years into the tuition wars, IU have worked my ass off and we have not put any money into the house or non401-k retirement savings. The house is on the verge of being declared a blight zone by the town. We are finally gearing up to do some deferred improvements staring this spring. We have the income to do this, but we only did it by making value choices and foregoing things. You know like normal people as opposed to debt mongers and free riders. I am no mood to pay off the debt mongers and free riders who would be playin' me like a sucker, which is probably what I am for having made these prudent value judgments.

James D

Jeff, you're like my own personal Tammany Hall precinct captain!

If I had some nice taxpayer-funded swag to give you, rest assured it would be headed your way right now...

NK

JamesD-- I've meant to ask. Any chance you are related to the owner of a Queens NY Buick dealer from back in the day?

Rick Ballard

Typhuspad test

henry

TC, response from lurking friend:

I'll take Suzanna Martinez and one order of the following sausage:

http://www.edwardsvaham.com/product/country-ham-sausage-links/sausage

JMHanes

Miss Marple:

"But it doesn't matter, as I don't vote until May."

You're remarkably persistent for someone who repeatedly tells us her opinion doesn't matter! I actually invented IVR for you; perhaps you could just add DVTm (Don't Vote Till May) to your screen name. No one who gets to vote in March is really in a position to complain, so they don't need the acronym. My heart really goes out to our conservative friends in California who DVTj, because they basically don't get a say in anything.

narciso

The top men keep topping themselves themselves. Just ask Lamar Smith. Oh and dimmesdale!

Old Lurker

NK, back when YL was a toddler and we were looking at schooling, money was tight and we too had to make a bunch of value decisions. We decided that K-6 at the best place possible would be better than 7-12 if we ran out of money, so we planned our money to be sure of K-6 and then the best college she would be able to experience. Of course we had YL2 in the pipeline too so all these decisions had to be x2.

I am so proud that it all worked out as it did (two docs and no debt from good schools paying retail from start to finish), but I guarandamnteeyou we stressed out big time to make that happen, and I have the gray hair to prove it.

Now half the populations thinks we were boobs to do that since vote for the right person and you can get that stuff for free?

Grrr. Back to the Ledge.

James D

In principle, I agree completely with NK and Marlene and Sue.

In practice, what I believe is that there is almost certainly going to be some sort of debt forgiveness pushed by Obama, which enough R's will go along with to see it passed.

I'll go back to my plan, which if the R's were smart, they would adopt and get out in front of the issue:

A one-time total forgiveness of all outstanding federal student debt.

As a compensation to those who were responsible and paid all their debt off (within, say, the last 10 years, although we could tweak that figure), a one-time $10,000 tax credit (again, tweakable as needed).

All scheduled future federal or federally guaranteed loans are cancelled as of the end of May 2016 (the end of the spring semester for most schools).

As of June 1, 2016, the federal government is out of the student loan, and the student loan guarantee business, forever.

All private loans after June 1, 2016 will have a yearly limit of $10,000 per student (indexed to inflation, I guess) and a lifetime limit of $50,000 per student. They will also be dischargable in bankruptcy.

To pay for all this, there will be a one-time tax levy on all college and university endowments, and all non-profit and foundation endowments, with a value of more than $50 million, of 80% (we could negotiate that figure up or down a bit as needed).

Further, all non-debt federal student aid (scholarships, pell grants, etc) will only be available for schools that have an appropriate ratio of full-time faculty to administrators (I don't know what the number would be, but it should be high enough to force mass firings of administrators).

It buys the votes of millions of people for the R's, so that's a win.

It frees up hundreds of dollars a month for millions of people that can go towards mortgages for new homes, monthly payments for new cars, larger investments in 401Ks, and more consumer spending. That's a win for the economy and should lead to a ton of job creation.

It devastates an entire class of parasites that cause nothing but harm to students and warp their minds. So obviously that's a win.

It guts a major funding source for the Dems and progressive causes more generally. That's a huge win.

To me, it beats the alternative we're likely to get, which is:

Obama pushes a partial forgiveness that does nothing to limit future borrowing, so it becomes an ongoing money pit, forever. It locks in millions of voters to the Dem side. And it forces the R's to either be pilloried as greedy fat cats who want young people to become debt slaves forever; or leads them to give in to Obama and disappoint/betray their base for the millionth time.

narciso

Re the groundhog looking for red queen,

Momto2

We did the same thing (with some help from the grandparents). Put 2 through out-of-state college with no debt. We don't own a 2nd home, drive older cars, I went back to work, we live well but frugally.

I tell my children constantly what a great gift that is - from parents/grandparents - to enter their adult lives without thousands in student loans. One is still in grad school but I think they are beginning to compare notes with others and realize the truth.

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