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March 09, 2016



A random thought. Trump has now won the state that Romney was Governor of and the state Romney considered home.


Jeff Dobbs

Hello Wednesday!


Rubio should do some more hand jive.


Not quite first!

Rafael Cruise

Not first...again.


Rubio, oh Rubio, wherefore art thou Rubio?


If Rubio plans to run for Governor, he really should drop out rather than be humiliated.




Cruise on first?


Ot, truth had a making of airplane and it showed how producing the thing, with three directors, to coaxing the black actor's inventing jive, was.


Top of the page at Drudge:


538 (3/9/16):
Who’s On Track For The Nomination?

Percent of Current Targets:
Trump 106%
Cruz 69%
Rubio 41%

In order to stay on pace, Trump outperformed in all 4 states yesterday, Cruz outperformed in 1 and under performed in 3. Rubio...horrible, but at this point he should stay in it until convention.



I was pointing out on the other thread, how sasse and Scott and cotton were at that fnork gathering.


I guess everyone is shocked by the Michigan results, but no one has really figured out why it happened or what it means to Rodham


They don't like her, specially in Midwestern states, to use an example from andrimeda strain, she thrives in a narrow band of ph.


Michigan/ Hilligula = Waterloo/Bonaparte


I think that one of the big surprises in Michigan is that she only won blacks by a 65/31 margin. In other contests she has racked up something close to 90%.


what was black Dem turnout % in Mich. What was total dem turnout compared to 2008?


The other interesting thing about the Michigan Dem race was age -- every age group went decidedly for one candidate or the other. Younger voters, up to age 40, were totally feeling the Bern. Over 40 were for Hillary and the Medicare eligible crowd really wanted Rodham.


Black turnout in Michigan in 2016 was 23% of the total vote.


Black turnout may have been a factor too. I do not have the data. But what we do know is that Black turnout FOR SANDERS was higher than expected based on prior races.


In Mississippi on the same night, Rodham got 89% of the black vote. She got 65% in Michigan. If she had gotten anywhere close to 89% of the black vote in Michigan, she would have won.

The question is why did she fall off so far among African Americans?


How many participants are in the sample that your data is coming from, Theo?

The whole thing sounds like a version of the Bradley effect.

Captain Hate

Treating any constituent group as monolithic is a trap the GOP gets sucked into by the likes of Teh Architect. Blacks in Meatchicken are surely more liberal than those in Mississippi.


Doc brown is running her over with the delorean

Michael (fpa Patriot4Freedom)

I know there are a lot of March birthdays at JOM, so I thought this might be timely:

If March 9 is your birthday . . . Happy Birthday !

Famous people born on March 9 include:

1454 Amerigo Vespucci (explorer, cartographer)
1824 Leland Stanford, (railroad baron, CA. Governor/U.S. Senator, founded Stanford Univ.)
1890 Vyacheslav Molotov (Russian politician)
1910 Samuel Barber (American composer)
1918 Mickey Spillane (author)
1934 Yuri Gagarin (USSR astronaut)
1940 Raúl Juliá (actor)
1942 John (JJ) Cale (musician, composer, singer, record producer)
1943 Bobby Fischer (world chess champion)
1960 Linda Fiorentino (actress)
1964 Juliette Binoche (actress, artist, dancer)
1983 Clint Dempsey (U.S. soccer player)
1984 Julia Mancuso (U.S. Olympic gold medalist, skiing )

and about *TWO DOZEN* other composers who are 'very, fairly, somewhat, or just barely famous.' :)

On this day in history:
The first Barbie Doll was produced. (1959)
The first Ford Mustang was produced. (1964)
Eastern Air Lines filed for bankruptcy. (1989)

March 9th is also:
National Meatball Day (U.S.)
Feast of Saint Frances of Rome (Catholic Church)


So thenpoll Rick trumpets, shows trump tied with Rubio inhead to head, against red queen.


CH --

But blacks almost always do vote monolithic ally. The reasons are not that hard to figure out -- as a minority group they tend to want to use unity and cohesion to maximize their overall strength. But why not now?


Any Republican not named Trump should do well against her.


1946, showed how precarious the aftermath of the good war was, from the scarcity in the UK all the way to china, where the coms had arrange a yenan truce with Japan.

Miss Marple 2

This guy I follow on Twitter who is a big Hillary fan is saying some dems thought she had it in the bag so voted against Trump in the GOP primary.

This would not seem to explain the drop in black support, however.

Jeff Dobbs

All right....we're up to 272 early voters here in NC aged 100 and above.

Of those, 197 are Dems.

#NoShenanigans #MoveAlong #NothingToSeeHere


Those vaunted getting circles were like Valentine and winthorp's crop report.

Miss Marple 2

Meanwhile, Mr. T showing about a million times more class than Obama:



Local radio guy, who has been railing against Trump for some time, finds the notion that he would lose Hillary to be pure fiction.


Why would a hard core Hillary fan vote AGAINST Trump in the primary?

I just do not buy that argument. It sounds like an excuse.

The issue about black support is a critical one for Herself in the general election. The issue is (I think) not whether any significant number of blacks will vote Republican, but how many blacks will turn out for Rodham. The less they like her in the primary, the less likely they are to turn out in the general.


Wow, I did not realize that connection with Mr. T, nor did I understand how honorable he was. How wonderful. Made my day.

Miss Marple 2


I remember him appearing with her in the "Just Say No" campaign. He was, of course, a Big Deal celebrity in the 1980's.

I am so glad to see he remembered her fondly and with respect.

Jeff Dobbs

Why would a hard core Hillary fan vote AGAINST Trump in the primary?

Makes more sense to argue they crossed over to vote FOR Trump (his crossover appeal is going to be yuge).

As mentioned last night, according to exits, 7% of the MI vote in the R primary were self-identified Democrats. No way of knowing how many were pro Trump crossovers vs Hillary's got it locked up crossovers (or other categories).

But for the record, Bernie's margin of victory was 1.6%

Miss Marple 2


Jonah Goldberg again demonstrates he doesn't understand the voting public, suggesting a Rubio-Cruz (NOT Cruz-Rubio) ticket is the only way to stop Trump.

Seriously, I wonder if he ever travels outside of Manhattan and DC.

Centralcal on iPad

Twiiter having a field day with last night's Trump infomercial. Trump steaks from Bush Bros. Trump water from company that will label their bottled water for anyone. Trump magazine - long gone - only annual glossy brochure for Mar a Lago. Etc. Etc. Etc.

Captain Hate

I've stated in the past how gutless the GOP has been for not challenging the black voting results which fly in the face of reality in a country where 60% is considered a landslide. Whether it's because of TK's consent decree or something else, it's a rotten situation that remains unaddressed.


Total votes: 1.4Mish Repub, 1.1Mish Dem. More Repb votes in Mich.... amazing.


If it's Trump v. Cankles, I can see lots of Bernie supporters staying home. Some will even go Trump.

If it's Cruz v. Cankles, I think that changes. I think your average Bernie voter will want to stop Cruz (they certainly won't cross over and vote for him).

The #neverhillary crowd may hurt Cruz more than the #nevertrump crowd hurts Trump.


I guess Jonah would remain in the room in a Rubio bunker vid.


Ppm jonah' rolling, let him be deluded in his own way, maverick was probably boosted by dems the first time around, btw eventually you're going to need some democrats no matter what Mustafa (rove) says.


They don't recognize what a mass movement is, with fnorks or their top men.

James D

But blacks almost always do vote monolithic ally.

I think part of the blame for that has to come back to the genius political consultants and GOP staffers. There HAVE to be wedge issues where the GOP can split groups of black voters off, or at least force the Dems to address those issues in ways that hurt them with other parts of their electorate; but the genuises either can't figure out what they are, can't effectively exploit them, or simply aren't even trying.

Jeff Dobbs

Jonah Goldberg again demonstrates he doesn't understand the voting public, suggesting a Rubio-Cruz (NOT Cruz-Rubio) ticket is the only way to stop Trump.

That article is from 2/24, Miss Marple. After Nevada, but before Super Tuesday. Of course Rubio was more viable back then - he had just beaten Cruz in both SC and NV.

Articles like that have a shelf-life no longer than the time between when it is written and the next primary.


He's repeating the same argument on varney now.

Miss Marple 2

I was a Reagan democrat who never went back, remained GOP my entire voting life since 1980.

Democrats will consider a GOP candidate when they feel like the candidate is their only hope.

In 1980, it was the Iran hostage crisis, the Panama Canal giveaway, the 18% mortgage interest, unemployment, decimated military, and obnoxious Carter telling us the USA was no longer a super power.

In 2016, we have Benghazi, ISIS, unemployment in manufacturing and mining, Common Core, Black Lives Matter, and illegal immigration.

I would bet there are a lot of democrats who will go for Trump, whom they feel like they know. Cruz would have to work a lot harder to make his case.

Captain Hate

James, the Uniparty has decided amnesty is good and they'll make up the selling points on the fly.

James D

I used to like Jonah Goldberg. But the post linked above is just garbage, plain and simple.

While a queue for allotments of blame would be longer than a Great Depression breadline, the person at the head of it is Ted Cruz.

Uh, no, Jonah. The head of the line is the GOP leadership that created a vaccum for Trump to fill by ignoring the issues that animated their base for, well, years.

And once Trump started to gain traction, rather than try to learn from him, co-opt his issues, adopt some of the tactics he was having success with, they first pretended he'd collapse of his own accord or people would get bored with him, or whatever. And of course they didn't.

Rick Ballard


Can a meaningful extrapolation be made from Michigan turnout when Clinton is husbanding resources for a bum fight general? It's not as if she's actually concerned about the nomination.


And once Trump started to gain traction, rather than try to learn from him, co-opt his issues, adopt some of the tactics he was having success with, they first pretended he'd collapse of his own accord or people would get bored with him, or whatever. And of course they didn't.

Yes, James and additionally they insulted and demeaned his voters at every possible opportunity which was SUCH a winning strategy!!!


The fact that 1.1M Dem votes cast and she loses, is a huge tell. Her only constituency is Old White Libs and cronies. She'd get fewer votes nationally than John S McCain.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

The most interesting man in the world is being retired.


Goodbye 60s Interesting Man. I guess it is time for 77yo Jon Goldsmith to retire. He had a great 10 year run though.


Well she should be, or as a bourbon she's learned nothing from the last go around.


The Sanders' Progs will turn out for Hillary--true some will sit it out, but not enough to matter, and they will likely be in solid Blue states anyway.

It is probably true that there are "Trump Democrats" that will come over for him, but is it enough to matter? MM is right that Cruz will have an uphill battle with these folks.

I guess the key question here is how many of these "Trump Democrats" (and independents too) are in the "Battleground States".

(and heaven know what sort of "October Surprise" we will get out of the Dems this years. I may be the greatest Oct. Surprise ever.)

Do enough Americans see the truth? Are enough fed up?

Time will tell.


MM: I must have not been paying attention to such things back then. I completely missed Mr. T's involvement in this sort of stuff.


The Michigan exit polls do not show where the Democratic votes in the Republican primary went, but looking at the numbers they did not seem to be particularly concentrated on any one candidate. May have helped Kasich a little bit, but hard to say for sure.

Miss Marple 2


I was a stay-at-home mom for most of the 80's and had the TV on for background noise, so managed to see almost every press conference and network news show.

This is also when I saw Reagan thoughtfully answer an Andrea Mitchell question about his charitable giving (he preferred to donate to individual people and didn't feel like if you deducted it from your taxes it was true charity) whereupon Mitchell LIED about his answer on the NBC evening news broadcast, saying he "had no explanation for his lack of charitable giving."

I have despised her ever since.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

One of the four remaining Trump U class members wants out of the CA lawsuit.
Says she can't take the stress.
Interesting thing is Trump filed a defamation suit against her which was dismissed presumably under the antiSLAPP statute. He had to pay her almost $800,000 in legal fees since that is part of the antiSLAPP law.
If you have deep enough pockets you can still make people's lives miserable even with a law designed to prevent such nuisance suits. His lawyers had to know he couldn't prevail on a defamation suit under those circs.

The other interesting point is apparently there were never more than 6 plaintiffs in the class. Since a class action suit is basically free to the vast majority of the class you would think there would be many more.
I wonder why not.


In other lawsuit news:

Jeff Dobbs

If we take the vote percentages from yesterday...

Trump: 38.9%
Cruz: 30.4%
Rubio: 9.5%
Kasich: 19.6%

...if we then assume Rubio and Kasich drop out (whether now or after 3/15) - we can calculate how much their current voters would need to break for Cruz for him to catch Trump in popular votes.

Drum roll please............

The Rubio/Kasich votes would need to break 65.605564% for Cruz and 34.394436% for Trump, which would put Cruz leading Trump in popular votes 48.862563% to 48.862562% (leaving 2.274876% still voting for "other")

Granted, this is a crude measure - because it assumes the Trump/Cruz percentages from yesterday are representative of the margin between them everywhere - which just isn't true. But it's at least a fun way to look at a one on one match up.

And I'm all about fun.

And I love spreadsheets. There. I said it. It's true. No point hiding it any longer.

Michael (fpa Patriot4Freedom)

Looking at the 7% democrat crossover vote for teh Trumpster in Michigan reminds me of the Virginia vote.

iirc, the VA. Repub primary total vote was ~ 1.030M, vs. 265K in 2012. So ~ 765K *additional* voters came out this year.

With teh Trumpster getting ~ 360K votes in the primary, if *all* of his votes were crossover Dems and independents (not likely), then the actual Repubs were responsible for at least an additional 400K + voters coming out and voting for candidates not named Trump.

Teh Trumpster may claim to be responsible for large numbers of crossover voters, but - hold your surprise - there is virtually NO evidence to support his claims.
He is most certainly not responsible for 100% of the additional Repub primary turnout he is trying to take credit for.

Miss Marple 2

Looks like Carly Fiorina is endorsing Cruz.

On TV now.


I seem to recall that someone that Reagan wrote a check to would not cash he check but instead framed it and put it on the wall, Reagan contacted him directly about that. It was too good to check so I never did check it,

One can talk all one wants about media then and now, and how the internet as reduced the power of the Big 3 networks, but the fact remains that the public knew that the media was lying about Reagan, and so it never really worked.

The Reagan Democrats were real Americans and real patriots. Now that they have passed, and the democrats have chased most non-progs out of the party the profile of these so called "Trump Democrats" are different. It will not do to put too much faith into the idea of a rebirth of "Reagan Democrats" rallying around either Trump or Cruz.

Michael (fpa Patriot4Freedom)

Carly appearing at a Cruz rally right now !

James D

squaredance, that's an old joke, too.

A guy wins a bet with his friend for $100. The friend pulls out his wallet and removes a crisp new $100 bill. The guy is thrilled, and says, "I never won a bet before. I'm going to take this bill and frame it and put it on my wall."

The friend puts the $100 back in his wallet and says, "Let me write you a check instead."

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

Mr T has been an outspoken born again Christian pretty much his entire adult life.


Carly for Cruz is interesting. My guess, he's promised her the VP slot... and she thinks he can can get the nod. She would work well for Kasich too, so why go to Cruz now? Interesting.


JeffD-- crossover votes? SOP for real estate guys-- take credit for all good results, point fingers over failures. Trump is just honoring the real estate guy code.

Miss Marple 2

Steve Forbes on Fox says Cruz needs to up his game and tie personal connections to his policies. He says the lawyerly talk and just talking about the Constitution without pointing out a connection to people isn't going to cut it.

Jeff Dobbs

There are those who might say to themselves, "that darn Jeff will never talk about anything other than campaigns and primaries and elections and polls and arrrrgh, he just won't stop!!!"

I am here to prove those imaginary people wrong.

Forget elections...let's talk pool!!!

Based upon my match from this week being entered into the database as of last night, I have now broken into the Top 100 ranking for the US.


Next I set my sights on the one person in the state ranked ahead of me. That sonuvagun is going down.

Old Lurker

NK, stop telling the secrets please.

I can hurt you with some of your clients.

new lurker

I like Carly and voted for Cruz, but I do not think they would go well together as President and VP--both are too bombastic. Cruz needs, I hate to say it, the Mailman's son who wants to get into heaven via St. Peter.


Sorry OL I am a firm supporter of #NeverTrump, so if necessary trade secrets will have to spill.. for the good of the country.

While I admit I have no idea what Trump would actually do with the power of POTUS (apart from the obvious what's best for Trump) the best analog I've heard is Silvio Berlusconi.


Does Carly have any Senator's endorsements she can attach to Cruz's resume?


He is most certainly not responsible for 100% of the additional Repub primary turnout he is trying to take credit for.

How does the credit break down?


PS OL: "I can hurt you with some of your clients." THAT is right out of page 1 of the real estate guy playbook.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

Let's say Trump wins the election in November with a substantial number of crossover votes.
Leaving aside how he might govern, which party would be in a worse position?

IMO, all this talk of the GOP imploding or exploding ignores greater long term problems for the Dems than the Reps.
Their biggest problem is the shrinking intellectual corner they continue to paint themselves into.
They are incapable at this point of adjusting to the catastrophe that always results from the rigid ideological positions they now stand for, especially as those positions inherently and violently discourage the very thing needed to make adjustments; independent thought that challenges the party orthodoxy.

Had they only the FSA constituency they would already be a rump party. It is only the crony oligarchs keeping the good ship Disparity afloat, but that disparity is also the seed of its, maybe not destruction, but its serious list to the left and the almost certainty of it running aground on the shoals of irreconcilable interests.
A country can only be driven so far in one direction ideologically until it butts up against the realities that cause the ones doing the driving to find themselves increasingly isolated as their ideological purity, which was never of interest to more than a small fraction of their constituents, no longer results in the benefits that their constituents really followed them for.


But IG-- merging the expanded FSA and the old/new oligarchs is how Leftish Social/'Christian' Dems have dominated West Euro/EU politics for almost 40 years. The USA Dems are approaching it from the opposite direction I admit (in EuroLand center moved Left and co-opted the socialists) The Dem hard Left has taken over and purged/co-opted the centerists.), but it is a real risk.



Actually, he felt the wrath of people who respect The Constitution and hate hypocrisy.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

The indispensable Mark Krikorian, who stands against the mass immigration cheerleaders as Phyllis Schlafly did against the ERA, asks how is a mass immigration policy conservative?

Old Lurker

You DO have our rule book, NK!

We never should have sent it out for legal review.


I love Jonah. Of course I've seen him without pants...oops I was sworn to secrecy so don't tell anyone.

SBW - what happened yesterday?

I love the thought of a Cruz Carly ticket.

Jeff Dobbs

"There's no time to lose", I heard Marco say
Catch some votes before they slip away
Losing all the time
Lose your state and you will lose your mind
Ain't life unkind?

Goodbye Rubio Tuesday
Trump just hung a name on you
You're Little Marco now every day
Still I'm gonna miss you


It is striking to see how Carlos lim justifies the travisham in baltimore,

Otoh, of you dial past the ambient noise, flathead finds a nut, his Ahab Matt taibbi seems to concur.


Krikorian-- I've read him for over 10 years. He's a voice of reason in the immigration shit hole. He's pointed out how the real problem for national unity and solvency isn't illegal immigrants, it is the 5Xs larger pool of 'family reunification' 'Legal' Immigration. Krikorian has demonstarted why another 'pause' is needed especially in light of the social welfare state and changed labor markets in effect during the previous 2 immigration pauses.


IMO, all this talk of the GOP imploding or exploding ignores greater long term problems for the Dems than the Reps.

Surely you're not suggesting that the MSM/Democrats are trying to spin the primary results as bad for the GOP! Unpossible!

Of course the real problem is that the NR/GOPe crowd falls for it.


Romney's handiwork from Michigan, 2012:
409,522(from Wikipedia)

494,638(from DecisionDesk)


James D.

Jeff, congrats on cracking the top 100 on the country. That's amazing!


Is everyone forgetting that the cruz pac gave $500K to Carly's campaign? Why is this endorsement a surprise?

Has everyone seen that on top of obamaphones, his FCC is set to begin spending $9.25 per month to cover broadband for low income households in the US?

I am guessing there is no citizenship requirement so more taxpayer money for crony companies. Plus all that luscious data from using the Internet helps so with the planning to meet all 'needs'.

Jonah may find himself like Erik Erickson as someone who took a stand and will never get their rep back as anyone to be listened to in the future.


Jane, sbw reported that he "lost," in the sense that the "vote" didn't really even occur because the fix was in.

James D.

NK @ 11:13

That's true. But it only works for them because they've had us as an engine to provide innovation; and also to serve as world policeman. If they take over permanently here, too, and we no longer fulfill those roles, what happens then?

Beasts of England

It was suggested that I check-in on occasion and I'm rather good about taking advice.

The weather broke over the weekend and the Subterfuge began its season yesterday in 76° weather. Today's forecast is pretty much the same - which means it's almost time to launch - so I'll leave you with this afternoon's featured beverage:

The Yellowhammer
(courtesy of Megan)

- three parts pink grapefruit juice
- two parts vodka
- one part tonic water
- splash of cranberry juice

Mix well, serve over ice, yada, yada, yada. You know the drill by now... :)


p.s., @NK: I received my tie from Cristo Rey and it's beautiful! The cross motif will be perfect for Easter and I look forward to wearing it.


And I love spreadsheets. There. I said it. It's true. No point hiding it any longer.

My name is Jeff and I am a propeller head.

No shame in that, I think just about everyone at JOM is suffering with that disease:)


Hi, Jane. Repeating an earlier post:

Yes, the show was today. Candidates for each of the three regents positions were “unopposed” because a floor fight would not have changed voting blocks and therefore they were elected without legislators having to, you know, actually vote for the best candidates.

News reports have legislators praising the “quality”, diversity and experience of the candidates.

Oh. I didn’t win.

I have heard back-channel that some in government thought I would have been an excellent choice.

Other excellent candidates in the judicial district were available, but, ahem, were not widely supported. It makes one wonder whether schooling is a priority, a political inconvenience, or a political opportunity.

I don’t feel badly about losing. I feel badly for a process that does not value education. I feel badly for those who do not care about the process.

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