Great Moments In Illustrative Examples

The Times has an intriguing article on a natural human tendency to over-estimate our abilities (and no, they don't mention Obama!)

However, in what may be a display f my own over-confidence I am scoring this next example as a copy-editor fail (emphasis added):

Overconfidence is hard-wired into our brains because it is useful. Many of our mental biases evolved because they make us cautious or they otherwise protect us from harm, but overconfidence is part of a suite of cognitive traits that serve to propel us forward. Just as no one would think to write a children’s book about a train engine that repeats, “I think I can’t,” few explorers would venture into the wild — and few entrepreneurs would start new businesses — unless they believed that they would succeed in the face of long odds.

A bias toward optimism helps to explain why many, if not most, smokers are confident that they will not develop cancer;

I recall looking this up several times - roughly 85% of smokers (e.g., five out of six) will NOT develop lung cancer. I don't know about the other smoking-related cancers, but it seems to me that a smoker's confidence that he or she won't develop lung cancer is not misplaced.

On other hand, plenty of non-smokers develop plenty of other cancers, so maybe the author is making a general point about cancer in general. Either way, not a great illustration.

And Google says:

A reexamination of the statistics might help to clear the air.

Didn't kill grandpa

Surprisingly, fewer than 10 percent of lifelong smokers will get lung cancer. Fewer yet will contract the long list of other cancers, such as throat or mouth cancers. In the game of risk, you're more likely to have a condom break than to get cancer from smoking.

Or:

Studies in other countries have broken down the risk further to differentiate between never smokers, former smokers, and current smokers.

In a 2006 European study, the risk of developing lung cancer was:

0.2% for men who never smoked (0.4% for women)

5.5% for male former smokers (2.6% in women)

15.9% for current male smokers (9.5% for women)

24.4% for male “heavy smokers” defined as smoking more than 5 cigarettes per day (18.5% for women)

An earlier Canadian study quoted the lifetime risk for male smokers at 17.2% (11.6% in women) versus only 1.3% in male non-smokers (1.4% in female non-smokers).

Comments

[anonamom]

First? First!

[Barry Dauphin]

A minority of smokers get lung cancer, but an overwhelming majority of folks with lung cancer were smokers.

[henry]

Tell that to the asbestos trial lawyer mob.

[Jack is Back!ll]

I am confident that my knee issues are not a result of smoking years ago. But I feel better already knowing I don't have cancer even though I was smoking cigars up to 10 years ago.

Can knees get lung cancer?

[Barry Dauphin]

Tell that to the asbestos trial lawyer mob.

Call 1-800-Shyster

[Donald]

Smoking is nasty. But a lot of smokers are awesome.

Just sayin.

[henry]

good point Barry.

[Thomas Collins]

Well, since this is the weekend many Christians commemorate and celebrate the Resurrection, it might be suitable to reflect on how wonderful a thing it is that Jesus didn't live his life on the basis of studies analyzing comparative risk. And neither should we. Happy Easter!

[Jack is Back!ll]

Hasn't Johns-Manville run out of money by now?

[Miss Marple 2]

I think I will take a smoke break.

PS. My grandpa lived until he was 99.

[Jack is Back!ll]

It's still the most versatile and reliable bomber in history. Now with needed upgrades. It will not go away. What can replace it? My memories of crewing it back in the late 60's will never go away. It is the most eternal machine I can ever imagine. What an engineering marvel. Boeing should be given a Presidential medal for designing and making it. But more importantly for keeping it current after 60+ years.

http://strategypage.com/htmw/htairfo/articles/20160324.aspx

[jimmyk on iPhone]

"A minority of smokers get lung cancer, but an overwhelming majority of folks with lung cancer were smokers"

A minority of airplane passengers die in plane crashes, but an overwhelming majority of plane crash victims were passengers.

[Don't ever get in or out of your bathtub.]

Bah, how many current male smokers smoke five or fewer cigarettes per day. This may be full of false precision.

[jimmyk on iPhone]

I recall scientific claims that cancer risks kick in at even a low number per day, though I find that hard to believe, and that seems belied by the above numbers (unless an awful lot of smokers smoke fewer than 5/day).

[Jack is Back!ll]

My mom and dad smoked like chimney's and drank like Flynn but both died of anurysems nothing to do with smoking unless it weakens the artery. They have friends here in Southampton who drank and smoked with them and their still alive in their 90's and 100's. Go Figure.

[jimmyk on iPhone]

Well as the saying goes, the plural of anecdote isn't "data."

[Thomas Collins]

If one wants to take the comparative risk studies seriously, one would search the literature for studies taking into account the genetic factor. A pack of Camel straights might be far more risky for those with a certain sequence of ATGC nitrogen base thingies than those with a different sequence. I have no idea how far this type of research has progressed.

[Sbw on iphone]

The lake is officially open. Sitting on the patio. Just finished tea. The fire pit is lit. Sun reflecting off the shoreline. Birds chirping. Rocker rocking. And my wife has just gone in for champagne. It is definitely happy hour. Here's to JOM!

[Thomas Collins]

Here's to you and your wife, Sbw on iphone. I don't think I have champagne on hand, but I'll find a suitable toasting liquid.

[JM Hanes]

If more than 5 cigarettes a day is heavy smoking, what on earth is smoking? I suspect that 5/day smokers are few and far between. How many people are we even talking about in this unnamed "2006 European study?" What purpose is served by aggregating the the risk of everyone from the 6 cigarette tippler to 3 packs a day chain smoker? Does that one extra cigarette up your risk another 10%? I don't think so. Sheesh. That kind of stat work is just designed to scare you straight, not inform you.

[Jack is Back!ll]

sbw,

Enjoy that pastoral. We loved the lake we wer on in Richfield when we were up there with you. Here the crocus and other bulbs are out, the ocean is warming, people on the streets and the day trippers have returned. No summer folk yet except those checking out the house to make sure the manager didn't raid the wine cellar.

[Momto2]

My grandfather smoked packs of unfiltered Camels, binge drank, and ate red meat and pork with fat attached. I remember as a child cutting the fat off of my pork chop and my grandfather would reach his fork over and retrieve it.

He lived into his 80's, BUT he was a farmer and worked hard 6 days a week - really physical labor. So I've always thought the combination of exercise and eating home grown vegetables cancelled some of the other things he did that today would be considered health risk behaviors.

My grandmother who did not smoke or drink but ate the same foods lived to be 97. I'm counting on inheriting their genes!

[Thomas Collins]

I'm sipping a cabernet in honor of your lakeside happy hour, Sbw on iphone!

[henry]

I'll tip my Moon Man Pale Ale to the sbw / TC lakeside happy hour.

[Miss Marple 2]

Bernie Sanders just won Alaska and Washington State by huge margins: 75=78% over Hillary.

[Jack is Back!ll]

Lots of leeches and pariahs in Alaska and Washington then.

[Jack is Back!ll]

Can we say good bye Oregon yet?

[Miss Marple 2]

Jack,

I figured Washington would go Sanders due to it being full of hipsters. Am surprised at Alaska. I guess Hillary doesn't have the Inuit sewn up.

Margins in both states are huge, though, which should mean something. (Newt says it might re-set the race. I have no idea. I thought Michigan was a trend, but then she won Ohio.)

[Jack is Back!ll]

MM,

Sanders is a real theat. Reminds me of Gene McCarrthy. Young and millenials will not come out in November to vote for him but for now they are having fun with us. I know!

[Destiny Ignatz]

--Tell that to the asbestos trial lawyer mob.--

Those guys focus on mesothelioma although some types of conventional lung cancer as well.
The mesothelium is the membranous sack covering our lungs. The asbestos form of certain minerals is just about the only known fiber small and sharp enough to be inhaled and then work its way through the alveoli of the lungs, through the outer wall and into the mesothelium.
As such, if you have mesothelioma it's extremely likely the inhalation of some form of asbestos did it.
I love putting the blame for every societal ills on lawyers if possible, but in this case...

--Hasn't Johns-Manville run out of money by now?--

They ran out many years ago when they had to set up the trust for asbestos victims and declared bankruptcy.
For them to run out of money now Warren Buffet will have to run out first since he bought up the remains after the BK.

[pagar a bacon, country ham and sausage supporter]

Just back from a wonderful 90th birthday party for my oldest sister in law.

Great Mariachi band played for almost an hour with out a break. The link is not the band that played but is a good example of a Mariachi band.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9KQbbheFcM

[Miss Marple 2]

http://bgr.com/2016/03/26/iphone-7s-features-curved-glass-amoled-display/?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social

[glasater]

I remember waiting on this 90 plus yo lady years ago who smoked Pall Malls in the cocktail lounge where I worked.

I truly believe its the filters on cigs that get a person.

JIB

Our local lady pilot association were invited to a fly-in at Fairchild AFB in Spokane WA and we were able to climb into the B-52s they had parked up there (think they moved them from place to place to fool the Russians satellites) and goodness the cockpit was small in those aircraft. A big guy wouldn't fit.
I'm sure the new designs have enlarged the area.

[anonamom]

Smoking most definitely is related to the development of aortic aneurysms Jib.

My father quit smoking 30 years before he died from metastatic lung cancer.

My grandpa smoked his Camels unfiltered too! Lived to 82. Long enough for him. Me--I'm aiming for 90 something. Have to, to see the yet-to-be-born grandchild graduate college.

[Destiny Ignatz]

I remember the first time climbing up into a BUFF myself.
Felt like a coffin with stairs to me.

[Jack is Back]

Iggy,

Coffin? He'll try staying awake for 14 hours with 30 seconds of real work😎

[Jack is Back]

Glasater,

I barely qualified due to height and weight. But flying in the bottom seat for 14 hours is no picnic.

[narciso]

I should have tried the airforce, the navy that I looked into after I took the asvab, flagged for a series of reasons,

true a series of cases, emphysema, heart attack and ultimately stroke, is not data, but it is an indicator of sorts, reasons why I didn't take up smoking, even though it might have made me popular,

[Porchlight]

Bah, how many current male smokers smoke five or fewer cigarettes per day. This may be full of false precision.

I'm female and smoke five or fewer/day. For what it's worth.

[Porchlight]

Miss Marple, the Emeril method worked perfectly! Mr Porch always complains about my hard cooked eggs and he was impressed. :) Thank you!

[Miss Marple 2]

Porchlight,

You are welcome!

I wish I had more easy cooking tips, but that one is my only true tip.

Glad it worked for you!

[narciso]

this fellow was very perceptive at the time of the first paris attacks,

https://www.propublica.org/article/belgiums-deadly-circles-of-terror

now the site does trade in prog notions, like the idea, people need to be trained to use a voter id,

[narciso]

an irony about mediaite, which is like a portal into another dimension,

http://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2016/03/26/in-a-tasteless-tabloid-election-its-only-fitting-that-the-national-enquirer-is-on-center-stage/

[narciso]

any one for tennis,

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2016/03/26/brooks-political-point-scoring-to-criticize-obama-for-staying-at-baseball-game/

[Eggs, eggs, eggs. I'm off to Paree!]

Glad so few, P; that's a bit unusual. A pack is about a normal day's worth of drug.

You may be not truly addicted; as I say unusual, but not unheard of.

Lucky you, you probably enjoy those few more than the addicts.

[Destiny Ignatz]

--any one for tennis--

Only if Brooks's head is the ball.

[narciso]

that would be bushkazi, and you'd end up with a mushy mallet,

[Miss Marple 2]

Polar vortex first week in April. BOOOOOO!

[narciso]

so the ben affleck vehicle, looks like it is leading, but it needs 800 million, just to break even, so heh,

[Miss Marple 2]

http://brackstons-blog.com/2016/03/24/kendyll-my-talking-dog-loves-lou-dobbs/

[narciso]

this was the nassiri connection I mentioned earlier,

https://www.khaama.com/brussels-terror-suspect-was-jailed-over-ahmad-shah-massoud-assassination-0454

[jimmyk]

The lake is officially open. Sitting on the patio.

sbw, I'm up in Lake Placid this weekend. Beautiful today, 50ish and sunny. I've been here in the summer when it wasn't much warmer.

[narciso]

some chimp let this go through,

http://nytlive.nytimes.com/womenintheworld/2016/03/25/10-years-ago-this-undercover-reporter-warned-of-radicalization-in-molenbeek/

[Art in Newport]

Friday cumulative box office is 197m worldwide,
... likely 350m by Monday.

[narciso]

it's pretty lousy, as I pointed out last night, nolan must have a the memento trick because he forgot how to write coherent characters,

in retrospect, snyder just had to copy frank miller's libretto for 300,

[daddy]

So the Times is blowing smoke up our...whats new?

[jimmyk]

Someone told me today, not sure if it's been widely reported and discussed (it's been hard to keep up while traveling), that the Turkish government knew about these Brussels bombers and warned the Belgian government, but they just treated him like anyone with a criminal background.

[narciso]

that seems to be so, they sent him back in july between paris attacks,

[daddy]

Just back from a wonderful 90th birthday party for my oldest sister in law.

What does she smoke:)

[GUS]

JimmyK, one must be sensitive and careful when dealing with the religion of Peace.
What has happened to logic, reason and common sense. Is this the result of "credential education", where what you learn, what you know and how you achieve is always second to ideology and grievance???

[narciso]

how bad is the affleck vehicle, you ask,

they make lex luthor, the son of an east german mogul, but who sounds like mark zuckerberg,

[narciso]

this is hollywood in a nutshell,

andrea from 921010, replaces the white shadow,

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/gabrielle-carteris-ken-howard-sag-aftra-1201737971/

[Miss Marple 2]

http://politicallyshort.com/2016/02/29/the-price-of-resettling-refugees-in-america/

This has maps and statistics. Well worth reading.

[daddy]

Here's the local story on Bernie trouncing Hillary in Alaska: Landslide victory for Sanders in packed Alaska Democratic caucuses

Says Bernie's wife came up to campaign in the State and that Bernie came out very strongly against the Pebble Mine project---a hot topic and rallying cry pushed hard by the Eco-Left.

From the story, the only guy mentioned who voted for Hillary is someone identified as a former Republican and ex-Military man, who tells us he's voting for Hillary because "of her skill set."

[narciso]

what fracking skill set, the vampires in forty days and forty nights have more sense,

[Miss Marple 2]

daddy,

It's a shame the reporter didn't ask him to detail her skill set.

I sure would like to know what people like that think she can do.

[pagar a bacon, country ham and sausage supporter]

Daddy, to the best of my knowledge she (or any of the family) have ever smoked. Her 89 yr old sister was at the party. She speaks no English except: She can sing the Star Spangled Banner in English and sing it well.
Apparently at the school she attended many years ago they had to learn it and she has never forgotten it. But she is getting a little forgetful and forgot she had sang it once today for me, so she sang it again.

[Destiny Ignatz]

--She can sing the Star Spangled Banner in English and sing it well.--

Well I can only get through about half of it before I forget the words so I figure I'm already living on about ten years borrowed time.

[GUS]

Her skill set. Wow.

[Buckeye]

what fracking skill set, the vampires in forty days and forty nights have more sense,

The skills associated with dishonesty are pretty well honed ;)

[jimmyk]

one must be sensitive and careful when dealing with the religion of Peace.

Maybe the bigger surprise is not that the Belgians didn't do anything about the info, but that the Turks provided it in the first place. They must be saying, "What the f***? We stuck our necks out and you don't even use the information?"

[daddy]

Ain't that the truth, Miss M:)

Among Clinton voters, there was concern that Sanders wasn’t qualified enough. In line behind Heym, Army veteran Joe William, 74, said he staunchly supports Clinton, and changing his registration from Republican to do it.

"In the military, you evaluate based on a skill set," William said, saying that he thought Clinton is most qualified for the presidency.

Pretty good back and forth rumbling' in the comments section. Hillary supporters pushing the meme that Hillary's defeat was a dirty trick due to Repub's registering as Dem's to vote for Bernie, but the Bernie fans said they worked the Voting registration lines and it was real Dem's voting for Bernie, not closet Republicans.

And loved this bit: Unofficial vote tallies showed lopsided results. In Homer, which saw a record turnout of nearly 500 people, Sanders won every single delegate, according to local media reports. Clinton failed to secure the minimum number of voters to win delegates in the Kenai Peninsula city.

If the Hillary Super-Delegate fix wasn't in, this might have been been a real contest in 2016.

[Miss Marple 2]

If any of you know a veteran diagnosed by the VA with PTSD, this article indicates many really have traumatic brain injuries and could be helped by hyperbaric oxygen treatments.

http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/26/remarkable-traumatic-brain-injury-treatment-could-succeed-where-the-va-has-failed/

[daddy]

Narciso,

I realize now that the radical Belgium Imam mentioned in your 08:52 link, who is currently fighting in Syria, is the guy I saw interviewed on TV the other day who said that the entire fault for the Belgium Terrorists was the fault of the Belgium Government, not the fault of the Terrorists. Now it all makes sense.

[GUS]

JimmyK, sounds like Jamie Gorelick was working between Ankara and Brussels.

[clarice]

I keep missing the new thread notices--https://youtu.be/zdF0STBfdKA

Devastating split screen of Brussels in mourning and Obama doing the tango and watching baseball in Havana

[maryrose]

As far as I am concerned this Sanders/Clinton race is a real contest
Those super delegates will be forced to switch to Bernie after her indictment
Hil has soft support
His followers are not going to vote for her

[DebinNC]

Speaking of Turks, BOzo and Eragon will be at the opening of the largest mosque in American next week. It's a huge complex in Maryland.

[narciso]

he has quite a following,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AuvKzYItZI

like that jayvee fundraiser in birmingham, which is where one of the paris attackers went scouting off to,

to cite that horrible line from the 2nd godfather,'the soldiers are paid to fight, the rebels are not what do they tell you,

doc brown is much closer to the heart of the party,

[daddy]

Well Clarice,

Apparently our President needs some quality down time once he's done the heavy lifting of heightening our resolve to stand in solidarity with Belgium.

[Art in Newport]

I have to say, Narciso, Snyder's re-imagining of Luthor as a shaky, psycho kid did not impress.

Who knows how Darkseid will come out.

[daddy]

3 mins to go, Villanova up 4 over Number 1 Kansas.

Good game.

[narciso]

did you actually see it, the last zach snyder project I paid to see was watchmen, yikes,

[narciso]

he's considered a moderate in those ranks,

http://www.euro-islam.info/tag/bassam-ayachi/

[Miss Marple 2]

Happy Easter!

Can you find the EGG amongst the bunnies?

Original picture: http://thedudolf.blogspot.hu/2016/03/easter-wheres-egg.html

Solution: http://dudolfsolutions.blogspot.hu/…/03/easter-solution.html

------------------------

Print this out if you need something to keep the kids occupied quietly for a few minutes.

[Miss Marple 2]

Early mass tomorrow.

Nytol!

[narciso]

the one where the chick is standing on?

[daddy]

From Iggy's link on the previous page.

RIGHT CLICK

Says it all.

[narciso]

bgates, seems to be of a mind with the #never trumps,

http://althouse.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-nyt-begins-to-treat-donald-trump.html#more

actually that was luttwak's modest proposal, forty years ago, in harpers,

[daddy]

'Nova!

[Art in Newport]

Sure, saw it Friday. Could really see the Frank Miller influence. But too much talk about Superman as a god, too much philosophizing in general.

More could be said, but we who saw it agreed that the movie did what it needed to do.

Ok, one more thing ... we did not like the looks of their Flash.

[glasater]

Haven't kept up with JOM comments because I dipped into Clarice's FB feed. Good grief does our gal have quite the comment section going..

Daddy, you're missing out :-)

[narciso]

that is the nolan influence, miller is more nietzchian in his approach,

[narciso]

our security services in war and peace, as clarice is fond of saying,

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-syria-militias-us-cia-islamic-state-20160326-story.html

[narciso]

worse then the underwear bombers investigation,

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3508389/Abdeslam-questioned-ONE-HOUR-four-days-attacks-TIRED.html

[Porchlight]

Smoking is nasty. But a lot of smokers are awesome.

Just sayin.

Thanks, Donald. :) How have you been? It's good to see you.

[Art in Newport]

I was thinking of plot elements and scenes, even snippets of dialog, that were straight from The Dark Knight Returns.

[narciso]

yes, I see the echoes, they did a very animated adaptation of miller, the dream sequences keys of a similar one in age of ultron,

[Huma Abedin]

Trust me, Hillary's skill set isn't what it used to be.

[narciso]

the link at 11:19, which is only the most recent example, indicates they don't have a clue, and neither do most of the reporters, ayachi's presence in the 'moderate camp' right up there with the milan mosque head is another troubling sign,