Happy Days Are Here Again!

Obama has a new campaign song and Hillary feels obliged to sing along. Obama first:

Obama cheers economy as 'pretty darn great'

WASHINGTON — Once reluctant to hype the U.S. economy's slow climb out of recession, President Barack Obama now is in cheerleader mode.

"America's pretty darn great right now," Obama told reporters Friday as he celebrated a strong jobs report that he said proved Republicans' "doomsday rhetoric" is little more than "fantasy."

The Sanders doomsday rhetoric, on the other hand, is... I don't know either.

Now, Obama is a shrewd political operator who got himself elected and re-elected, and Hillary does not lack for pollsters and focus groups. Still, this message to the voters - "No, I don't feel your pain because it's not real, get over yourself and get a job" - is somewhat, well, unorthodox.

As to the "strong" jobs report, Bloomberg preferred the word "nuanced" in their broadcast and "mixed" in their headline:

Payrolls in U.S. Surge While Wages Drop in Mixed Jobs Report

Employers added more workers in February than projected but wages unexpectedly declined, dashing hopes that reduced slack in the labor market was starting to benefit all Americans.

The 242,000 gain followed a 172,000 rise in January that was larger than previously estimated, a Labor Department report showed Friday. The jobless rate held at 4.9 percent as people entered the labor force and found work. Average hourly earnings dropped, the first monthly decline in more than a year, and workers put in fewer hours.

Fewer hours at less pay. A few more such victories and we are undone.

Over to Hillary, and a Pro Tip - activate the surge protector on your BS Detector or it will overload:

In an election year defined by angry populism, Hillary Clinton made an optimistic economic pitch on Friday, presenting a wide-ranging plan for job growth that would provide incentives for corporations that invest in employees and strip tax benefits from companies that move jobs overseas.

...

And without mentioning Mr. Trump by name, she rebuffed his negative assessment of America’s prospects. “I’ll tell you, when I hear people running for president who spend all their time bad-mouthing America, it really upsets me,” she said.

Ok, then - I guess this will upset her:

CLINTON: I’m running for president to knock down all the barriers that are holding Americans back, and to rebuild the ladders of opportunity that will give every American a chance to advance, especially those who have been left out and left behind. I know a lot of Americans are angry about the economy. And for good cause. Americans haven’t had a raise in 15 years. There aren’t enough good-paying jobs, especially for young people. And yes, the economy is rigged in favor of those at the top.

That was all the way back on February 11, 2012, but Obama sure has turned things around since then. And let's not even talk about the Sanders rhetoric.

The Times describes her plan for enhanced crony capitalism, but they play along with her re-branding:

Mrs. Clinton’s address was her most exhaustive yet focused on job creation, and leaned on an economic philosophy called inclusive capitalism that many of the Clintons’s closest advisers adhere to. It calls on corporations to invest in employees, communities and the environment rather than relying on short-term profits that increase shareholder value.

My fevered imagination assures me that in a bold editorial decision a key sentence was modified:

"...It calls on corporations to invest in employees, communities, friendly politicians and the environment..."

Maybe those politico-investments are an utterly unexpected by-product, and the Clinton Foundation just sort of happened. Maybe!

FWFW: I am sort of missing the Bernie Spring, which is an awkward metaphor because it doesn't seem to have survived the winter. But there was a brief period where idealistic youngsters and formerly idealistic Viet Nam-Watergate holdovers in the liberal media could imagine a world where the Democrats got behind a sincere, idealistic socialist. During that little period the Juice-Voxers were actually allowed to write critical Hillary pieces such as this, on Hillary's hubby the rapist.

But the voters are speaking, the cell doors are swinging shut, and soon the legacy media and the internet youngsters will be deploring Republican liars and haters while backing a rape-enabling Goldman Sachs pawn of the rigged economy. "Occupy Wall Street"? As soon as they see a chance to occupy the White House, forget it.

ERRATA: Interesting breakdown of median household income by state over time. Brace yourself - recovery around the country has been uneven. The NY Times took a similar look at distressed and recovering communities from 2010-2014. From the article:

The gap between the richest and poorest American communities has widened since the Great Recession ended, and distressed areas are faring worse just as the recovery is gaining traction across much of the country.

...

From 2010 to 2013, for example, employment in the most prosperous neighborhoods in the United States jumped by more than a fifth, according to the group’s analysis of Census Bureau data. But in bottom-ranked neighborhoods, the number of jobs fell sharply: One in 10 businesses closed down.

“It’s almost like you are looking at two different countries,” said Steve Glickman, executive director of the Economic Innovation Group, which created a new tool called the Distressed Communities Index.

 

Comments

[Theo]

First?

[henry]

Happy days? I think the Fonz jumped his last shark.

Crappy days will continue.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Polls closing in Kanasas!!!!!

[Theo]

TM highlights what was always going to be Rodham's dilemma. Is she running for Obama's third term or for "Change?" There are perils in either strategy.

[Jeff Dobbs]

TM:
That was all the way back on February 11, 2012, but Obama sure has turned things around since then.

Or 2016. But sure it feels like four years ago rather than four weeks....

[Theo]

Polls closing in Kanasas!!!!!

And, as someone snarked somewhere else, Drudge is reporting that Trump has won with 104.7% of the votes.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Twitter. Who knows?

jamie mckown
‏@JamieJmckown
@PatrickRuffini @Nate_Cohn @NateSilver538 informal results from Hancock Co Maine: 892 at caucus. cruz 2-1 over trump. dont know raw numbers
2:04 PM - 5 Mar 2016

[Jack is Back!]

Now, why would Maryland lead in average income? Lets see, could it be the booming tobacco market? Baltimore tourism? The Blue Crab industry?

Think about it. If it wasn't for those pesky south of Quantico, Virginia would be right next to Maryland.

[Jack is Back!]

....pesky counties south of Quantico....

[Jeff Dobbs]

My twitter is lighting up with a lot of good Maine news for Cruz. Alllllll anecdotal and subject to allllll sorts of caveats. Could all be lies. Could be wishful thinking.

First numbers from Kansas coming out. Waaaaaay too early to mean aaaannnnnyyyyyytttthhhhhiiiiinnnngggg.

But Cruz up 45-30 over Trump with 1% reporting.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Kansas results

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/election/kansas

It's a feed of AP results.

[Jeff Dobbs]

He says he's one of the official ballot counters:

Mark J. Ellis
‏@Mark_Ellis
@tedcruz beats @realDonaldTrump 2-to-1 in Kennebec County in #Maine Caucus #mepolitics
1:17 PM - 5 Mar 2016

[Jeff Dobbs]

Maine does have a ceiling threshold. If a candidate gets to 50%+1 - the delegates go winner take all.

Too much to hope for? At this points there are a lot of encouraging signs...but I'm not that hopeful yet.

[Theo]

Jeff --

Given how well Trump did in the neighboring states of New Hampshire and Massachusetts, that does seem like a LOT to hope for. But I would be happy to take it.

[Jeff Dobbs]

And in non primary, non election news......................

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAH! Just kidding.

As if.

[clarice]

H't Insty:http://www.freestatepoll.com/update-new-poll-shows-undecided-voters-breaking-cruz-trump-194

[Jeff Dobbs]

Theo:
Given how well Trump did in the neighboring states of New Hampshire and Massachusetts, that does seem like a LOT to hope for.

Closed contest. Caucus. A couple of factors that give ME something different than MA and NH...

[Theo]

Jeff --

Good points, but still does not seem like enough to add up to a 50% + 1 Cruz win. But those things plus more scrutiny on Trump, plus ads, plus Mitt's speech? Still seems unlikely. But I will take it for sure.

[Theo]

Cruz with very early lead in Kansas as well.

[squaredance]

I would think that Cruz takes Kansas. Pretty conservative and the do not like the East Coast much. I thought the polls showing Trump ahead where pretty iffy. Could be wrong though.

[Theo]

squaredance --

Trump has not done well in that part of the country so far (Iowa, Oklahoma). I guess we will find out soon enough.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Agreed, squaredance. Former polls were riding Trump momentum/hoopla.

Too bad we won't get exit polls. Would love to see the breakdown on how late deciders broke (made up mind in last week/last few days).

[DebinNC]

BOzo didn't carry a single OK county in either election. Okies aren't fools.

[Theo]

Jeff --

Who needs data when we can speculate?

[Jeff Dobbs]

Kentucky caucuses closing!!!!!!

[DebinNC]

Re speculating ... Rubio's expected to win Puerto Rico tomorrow. Will he brag about it or hope no one notices?

[Theo]

Cruz maintaining strong lead in Kansas. 4% in.

[squaredance]

He will brag about it, but only in Spanish.

[Jeff Dobbs]

In Kanasas, 11% in - Cruz up 49-25

[Frau Edith Steingehirn]

Where's Waldo? My father's Maine forebears left Belfast around 1853 for Texas.

Brought forward since I was dead in the previous thread. Hillary! has pushed so many of my buttons, I sound like an threadbare concertina:

Iggy sez: "the humorless, dead, greyness of it all"

IMO Hillary! is Leona Helmsley *without* the charisma and honesty. Gag me with a spoon if I have to look at one more photo of HRC with her malevolent open maw.

[squaredance]

"the humorless, dead, greyness of it all"

So does this mean we could call her "The Draggin' Lady"?

[Theo]

Kansas looking good. Is there some reason to think that the votes that are in are not representative? Does Trump do spectacularly well in the large urban centers like Topeka but much worse in the farm towns?

[Jane]

Why do the polls close at 3:00 PM EST in Kansas? Maybe the Millenials will still be in bed, and won't get there to vote or Trump.

[Jane]

Vote FOR Trump. They can Trump all they want.

[DebinNC]

Jeff's earlier Kansas results link
Those Einsteins who gave Jeb mega-millions must be feeling so proud to see him beating "Uncommitted".

[Theo]

Its a caucus Jane. I guess they did not want to have it ruin their Saturday night.

[DebinNC]

Oops, Jeb's not nearly beating Uncommitted.

[glasater]

To TM's topic and reinforcing Ig's wonderful comment on the world of Sanders and Clinton, below is a link to what Shrill's vision of the financial future of the US would be..

Hillary Clinton will deliver a major speech on jobs and the economy Friday afternoon, calling for a “clawback” of tax benefits for companies that outsource jobs overseas.

[Theo]

Deb --

Uncommitted has a good ground game.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Theo:
Does Trump do spectacularly well in the large urban centers like Topeka but much worse in the farm towns?

I'm watching the Kanasas side of Kansas City. No results from there yet....

[Jeff Dobbs]

Decision Desk HQ
‏@DecisionDeskHQ
Ted Cruz has won the Kansas Republican caucus.
3:10 PM - 5 Mar 2016

[DebinNC]

Imagine Team HC extensively testing to find the perfect word, and the winner was "clawback"?

[Theo]

AoS Decision Desk calls Kansas for Cruz

[squaredance]

Well, I think it is pretty much a Kansas thing. Once this was "Midwestern thing", but States Like Iowa, Missouri, etc. Have gone over to the Dark side (in general Elections).

The "big cities" in Kansas are pretty Dem, outside the Suburbs--I do not think that there is that much variance between the urban and rural GOP. On the GOP side, they are also pretty social conservatives. In fact, I would be puzzled if Trump won, but it has been decades since I have been out there.

(Disclaimer: Once I had not a few Midwestern relatives, and they used to keep me vividly up to date, but they have all long parted and their children have moved on. I might get the Midwest totally wrong these days. )

[Jeff Dobbs]

Bob Dole on the phone with Cavuto. Cruz winning gives him a case of the sadz.

[Theo]

Any news from Maine or Kentucky?

[Frau Edith Steingehirn]

It's a small world after all...
Ketanji Brown Jackson is being vetted for SCJ and is married to the twin brother of Paul Ryan's brother-in-law.
?????????

[Frau Edith Steingehirn]

"Clawback" and "Hillary!" together is worse than waterboarding.

[glasater]

I'm listening to that also, Jeff with Bob Dole bless his heart.

Years ago he came to our country for a fundraiser and got to hang with him for a time. Got my picture taken with hime. Great guy and so funny to listen to.

At least he's somewhat coherent in this conversation.

[maryrose]

Where is the decision desk ?
No other network has called it

[glasater]

Heh, Frau..

"Clawback" should scare the beejeebus out of guys and discourage them for voting for her.

[Jeff Dobbs]

http://decisiondeskhq.com

[Jeff Dobbs]

Lull in voting results. Let's check in with Trump...

Jenna JohnsonVerified account
‏@wpjenna
Donald Trump makes members of his Orlando crowd raise their right hands and swear to vote in the primary.

3:18 PM - 5 Mar 2016

[DebinNC]

Dole pines for the good old days when the Senate was run by true statesmen like George Mitchell and Tom Daschle.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Kasich flirting with 10% in Kanasas. That's the bottom threshold for getting delegates.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Portland should be a Trump place, no?

Alexis Levinson ‎@alexis_levinson
Per a Maine source, results of Portland, ME area caucus: Cruz 540, Trump 495, Kasich 29, Rubio 169.
4:23 PM - 5 Mar 2016

[Jeff Dobbs]

Closed caucus. Voters coming out in record numbers. . . but not for Trump.

John Couvillon
‏@WinWithJMC
KANSAS GOP CAUCUS PROJECTED TURNOUT - CURRENT ESTIMATE: 74100 (was 29900 in 2012 and 19400 in 2008)
2:46 PM - 5 Mar 2016

[Centralcal on iPad]

Thanks for posting that, Jeff - I couldn't do it! Turnout is huge.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Nate Silver making the case that we may be seeing a "Middle America" anti-Trump firewall forming...Missouri is a winner take all state that votes on 3/15. Would be a big get for Cruz if this pattern holds. Illisnois is also 3/15 and winner take all. I have noooooo idea what goes on there (if lurking unit is lurking, i'm nowhere near my phone). Nebraska and Dakotas aren't until a good deal later.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/louisiana-kansas-kentucky-maine-primaries-presidential-election-2016/?lpup=14271744

(I think that's not the exact geographic location of Alaska...but I'd have to look that up.

[Centralcal on iPad]

Eliana Johnson

Lindsey Graham & Ted Cruz have lengthy phone conversation. Graham seems to be for narrowing to one-on-one v Cruz - nationalreview.com/corner/432394/…

[Jeff Dobbs]

Wisconsin is Apr 5. Scott Walker could have a big influence there....but that's henry/Gus territory (among several others).

[henry]

Jeff, Alaska relocated to Mexico to escape the EPA.

[Thomas Collins]

Here's a March 16, 2016 nightmare scenario for Team Romney: To stop Trump, either (i) the rules need to be changed before the convention, or (ii) Team Romney will need to line up Duke and Duke Republicans for Cruz. If Rubio can win Florida, and Kasich can win Ohio, even if Trump carries Michigan, Team Romney may be able to avoid the nightmare scenario, and instead still push for the almost nightmare scenario: Stop Trump from getting more than 50% on the first ballot, and then wheel and deal to put Rubio or Kasich at the top of the ticket on a subsequent ballot.

[Thomas Collins]

No, Jeff, globull climate change caused Alaska and Hawaii to move South of the Border.

[Jeff Dobbs]

TC:
(ii) Team Romney will need to line up Duke and Duke Republicans for Cruz.

Heh, centralcal beat you to that scenario with the Eliana Johnson report on the long phone call between Cruz and Lindsey.

(Cruz gotta be careful...."HE'S SELLING OUT TO THE ESTABLISHMENT!!!! is going to come)

[maryrose]

Will be gone to a gala downtown!

[Jeff Dobbs]

So Charles C. Johnson (not Cahrles Jhonson of LGF fame, but the guy that chases and publishes rumors with abandon) has a report saying he's confirmed two Rubio mistresses.

I'm not linking it - I don't trust him. But it's out there.

[Thomas Collins]

Whoops! My apologies to cc. Thanks, Jeff, for pointing out my Joe Bidening of cc. I swear it was inadvertent. Come to think of it, didn't Jpe try to convince people his plagiarism was inadvertent?

[Another Bob]

Massive lines at GOP caucus sites in KS. We waited about 45 minutes. May be deceptive since this is the first pres cycle using caucuses over a primary. (Caucus over primary means the party runs and pays for it, not the taxpayer.).

Lots of "provisional ballots" (blank 3x5 index cards) being issued in at least one Johnson county location because online system is overloaded. Party volunteers running the site said those ballots would probably not be counted today.

Nominally closed caucus, had to be registered republican as of Feb. 7 IIRC. They were checking ID against registration lists.

Wife talked a woman in line next to us out of voting Trump and voted Cruz instead.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Thanks for the report Another Bob!!!!!!

[Porchlight]

It's been rumored for awhile. No rumors like that re: Cruz that I've heard of.

Not a fan of Charles C. Johnson but I do think it's smart to try to locate the landmines ahead of time.

[Centralcal on iPad]

Way to go, Another Bob!

Everything is right with Kansas!

[Centralcal on iPad]

TC - no problemo - don't know how to copy tweets on this darned iPad, so you will probably beat me on any future good news. LOL

[Jeff Dobbs]

What I'm saying, Porch is that Johnson is naming names. No one else has done that as far as I know.

Seems like he's advancing the ball in a big big way (if true).

I agree about the landmines - that's why I'm reporting it here. I just don't want to give him a click.

[Another Bob]

And BTW, I voted Cruz.

Saw one car in the lot bearing a Ready for Hillary sticker. Made be go hmm...

[Jeff Dobbs]

So that poll Clarice linked that Insty had...it was the absolute BEST poll for Cruz in the state of Kanasas. And it had Trump up 6 points.

Cruz looks like he's going to win Kanasas by 20-25 points.

A 30 point miss is not a small miss. It's not even in the same time zone.

So....let's perhaps take another look at Florida and where things stand there...

[Jeff Dobbs]

5% of Maine reporting - Cruz up 48-35 over Trump.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/election/maine

Reminder - hitting 50%+1 (no way, I don't believe it, but...) gets Cruz all the delegates in Maine.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Decision Desk has 14% in in Maine and it's 47-36 Cruz over Trump.

[Another Bob]

Slow down re. Kansas Jeff. Note my warning about provisional ballot counting.

[Jeff Dobbs]

NYT calls Maine for Cruz.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results

[Theo]

We may have passed Peak Trump!

Maybe the Willard speech was not such a bad idea after all.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Thanks for the reminder Bob. I'm still happy dancing here :)

[clarice]

https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpl1/v/t1.0-9/12821570_10153886901479070_2603263858513674339_n.jpg?oh=c152aefd60cfc386f79009ea19aee905&oe=57694B54

[Porchlight]

Oh, I didn't realize he had names, Jeff. Yeah, not clicking either.

Caucuses are hard to poll (especially when it's the state's first) and there is no early voting factor. I don't think FL will be in Cruz's reach - he seems to have slipped behind Rubio in recent polling. But this Midwest firewall might be shaping up. Problem is those are states with not a lot of delegates.

[Frau Edith Steingehirn]

Are they truthful about the reason for changing registration? That couldn't be an Operation Chaos could it, Clarice?

[Centralcal on iPad]

Uh oh.

Joe Pounder
@pounderfile

CBS: Better Business Bureau denies debate night "fax" to Trump cbsn.ws/21QWpDq

[Frau Edith Steingehirn]

St. Hillary of Rodham, patron saint of ugly women...

Sibling abuser Lena is hospitalized. Folks are not too sympathetic and her supporters scold:

... you dislike her just because she believes men and women should be equal. I can’t wait until Hillary is in office and puts misogynistic men like you in your place, Bob.

[glasater]

Charles C Johnson's twitter account has been suspended..

[Jeff Dobbs]

Trump can no longer afford to do so - but don't you think he's seriously considering skipping the next debate? It's March 10th in Miami. He can't skip a Florida debate five days before the primary - but only winning 59% in the last Drudge debate poll shows how weak he was.

[glasater]

Frau, on twitter I asked who Lena Dunham is ('cause I really have not kept up with pop culture and only vaguely read about her on JOM) and I got a lot of 'heh's'.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Inclusive capitalism sounds like the leftwing analog of compassionate conservatism.
Seems the only thing "included" in it is state control, which means "inclusive capitalism" is simply state capitalism by another name.
Yeah, now there is an original idea.

[No need to zap anyone.]

Tongue twitter tight; the collar starts to choke.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Cruz now over 50% in Kanasas with 61% reporting - with results from KC beginning to show up now.

[Air, I need air!]

Hmmm, that was supposed to be 'Tongue twitter tied'.

[Pretty darn grate.]

There's a cap for you: Make America Pretty Darn Great Again.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Two pleasant things to consider;

1. A world in which Donald Trump believes the conservative things he says and doesn't engage in the rude ignoramus schtick but does maintain the outsider mantle. He'd be polling at about 90%.

2. A world in which the real Donald had actually passed Peak Trump.

[Jeff Dobbs]

LULZ

[clarice]

Megan McArdle
22 hrs ·
Why isn't the establishment consolidating behind Cruz? Is it because ‪#‎NeverTrump‬ was actually ‪#‎OnlyRubio‬?

I don't think so, but a lot of Cruz voters seem to think so, so let me explain.

Cruz is going to have huge trouble in the remaining big states: California, Pennsylvania, New York (which will probably go to Trump). He's already had his best states, which is why he's ahead of Rubio. And Rubio is much more hurt by Kasich than Cruz was by Carson. So folks are genuinely concerned that if Rubio exits, Cruz won't be able to carry enough voters in the remaining states with a much lower evangelical mix.

More important is Kasich. If Rubio drops out, some of his voters will go to Cruz, some of his voters will go to Trump, but a lot--the establishment types to whom Cruz is unacceptable--will go to Kasich. I'm not talking about the actual Establishment--the power brokers and insiders. I just mean suburban Republicans who aren't religious and aren't as hard core conservative as the South, especially on social issues.

The worry is that Rubio drops out, Kasich picks his bloodied head up off the floor ... a gleam comes into his eyes ... he staggers to his feet to fight on ... and siphons off enough Rubio voters to keep Cruz from overtaking Trump, at which point he sweeps to the nomination. A lot of people, including obviously Mitt Romney, think the best strategy is for everyone to stay in, or at least Cruz and Rubio, take as many states as possible, and force a brokered convention. Cruz may be in a strong position at that convention, if it can be argued that he's the only one who can keep Trump voters in the tent. He'll be in a worse position if Trump gets 50% + 1 of the delegates, and the choice is to let him have it, or to steal it from him with a last minute rule change.

That's the thinking. No one's trying to deny Cruz his obvious shot at being the One True #NeverTrump candidate. They don't think there's any time left to build such a candidate, because too many delegates will have been allocated by March 15th.

Of course they may be wrong. But that's the thinking, and since about eight zillion folks have asked me about this, this is your answer.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

If we have passed Peak Trump I figure Cruz's steady pressure and Teh Donald's not too professional handling of the Rubio, Bush lied and David Duke issues mattered a lot more than Willard's speech, which seems to have gone a lot further toward discrediting Mittens than Trump.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Sedgwick County is the home of Witchita, Kanasas - which is where Trump went when he ditched CPAC...

Sedgwick Co GOP
‏@SedgCoGOP
Ballots Tabulated. 3 Bush; 18 Carson; 4161 Cruz; 307 Kasich; 891 Rubio; 1375 Trump; 2uncommitted; 11 blank #ksgop16 #kscaucus
4:38 PM - 5 Mar 2016

Sorry (not sorry) about doing this, but here I was from last night:

MM:
It's just there was more of an advantage in going to Kansas.

Well, then I am going to speculate that he ditched CPAC for a rally in Witchita, Kanasas because polling is showing his number cratering there - and Cruz catching him, and he's panicking with a last ditch effort to stave off a loss.

Well, that and because Geraldo told him to go.
Geraldo is pulling the strings

Posted by: Jeff Dobbs | March 04, 2016 at 11:51 PM