Powered by TypePad

« Happy St. Patrick's Day! | Main | Getting Ready For The Weekend »

March 18, 2016

Comments

Thomas Collins

MM2 and Porchlight, Cruz would get as many electoral college votes in NY as Trump: zero. It might be more competitive with Trump, but not so competitive that The Hill will need to strain. As far as NY being The Hill's home state goes, it's not Sanders' home state, and Trump still gets thumped.

Re Kasich: Kasich only gets 1% of the GOP vote when up against Cruz and Trump. But if he were the nominee, he'd do just fine with the GOP according to the majority of the national polls that show both him and Cruz doing better than Trump.

The bottom line of that poll is that Trump gets thwacked in his home state, a state in which if he were going to shake things up, he'd be a lot more competitive. Where is he going to shake things up? Massachusetts? California? New Jersey? Where are his extra electoral votes if the most that could be said about his home state is that The Hill would need to spend more money there (except that a 19 point lead doesn't sound as if she is going to need to spend that much extra money there).

henry

While its possible to convince me Kasich is an improvement over Hillary or Bernie, everything the man does pushes me to the opposite conclusion.

Thomas Collins

The passion of Trump's supporters argument doesn't resonate with me. My memory of the candidates with the most passionate supporters takes me to Goldwater, McGovern and the 1992 version of Perot. Not a happy memory if one thinks defeating The Hill is job one.

lyle

So who defeats her, TC? We've heard all the reasons why Trump won't. Who will?

Porchlight

Oh yeah, Iggy, you're right. McCain was unopposed in the primary. At any rate, it's the same story - although he may lose without any GOPe assistance.

derwill

How did Romney do in his home state of Massachusetts again? Kasich is another Romney. He'll lose, but in a polite and gentlemanly manner, so there is that.

-----
One thing I've noticed in these articles where they posit various scenarios of how Trump won't go over the majority delegate threshold are a lot assumptions that might not hold up when reality hits the fan. For instance, they assume that because Cruz won the caucus in Wyoming (caucus being the operative word) and the primary in Idaho, that Cruz will then win Montana and SD. But the day after the primary here, the Statesman had a map showing how the vote broke down according to county. Trump won most of the counties north of Boise, and Cruz won the more populous and Mormon counties south of Boise. Neither Mt nor SD has the Mormon voting block like southern Idaho does. Whereas as northern Idaho and western Montana are similar in a lot of ways.

So while I'm not saying Trump will win in those states, the rational for assuming that they will go for Cruz is suspect.

Buckeye

henry

I think Kasich would be better than Hillary or Bernie. He has only screwed up about half of what he has touched in Ahia.

Mrs. Buckeye has some pretty long term connections to the state GOPe (I don't plan on letting her squirm her way out of that fact) in Ahia in that her cousin was a three term Governor and a two term US Senator, not to mention being on the ticket with Dewey in 1944. Still lots of family connected to movers and shakers (they are all antiques, your father's Buick crowd). I guess they still spend money.

The insiders (so we hear)have never really liked Kasich as he doesn't go out of his way to help down ticket candidates, and he is a prick despite his "we gotta love everybody" persona.

Porchlight

If you look at the map, Cruz appears to be beating Trump in the Southwest and West.

So according to that pattern Cruz ought to be winning AZ, but AZ is all Trump.

I assume Cruz will take UT due to the Mormon population. No idea about MT and SD.

lyle

Since DoT isn't around anymore, I'll be the one to say it: Kasich makes my skin crawl.

Buckeye

lyle

Mrs. Buckeye's relatives would be too polite to say that, but I am sure they think it;)

Theo

Ignatz @ 11:07 --

Speaking for myself alone, I have never been to a Georgetown cocktail party, would not want to go to one and would never be invited if I aped every one of their beliefs. (For one thing, I am a tee totaler and for another I am a curmudgeon.) Zero point zero percent of my beliefs are based on some hope of being more acceptable to the "right" people.

I sincerely believe that Trump is the least likely Republican nominee to beat Rodham. I also sincerely believe that he is the least in step with conservative thought on the most important issues. Moreover, I do not trust him to do what he says given how flexible his views seem to be and how his election would owe nothing to either the party or the conservative movement but would be just a personal triumph. Finally, I do not think that he has the temperament or experience to be the President.

Of course, I could be wrong on any or all of this. But those are my views and they are not part of an attempt to curry favor with anyone.

lyle

Then I consider that a compliment, Buckeye, considering the source(s).

Meanwhile, the dems are going trench warfare on McTurtle and Grassley:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-plan-push-to-force-hearings-on-supreme-court-nomination/2016/03/17/97983d40-ec5b-11e5-a6f3-21ccdbc5f74e_story.html

Thus spaketh the crappiest crapweasel:

“You’re going to be surprised at how hard we’re going to work to make sure this is on the front pages of all the papers,” Senate Minority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) told reporters after meeting with Garland on Thursday.

No, we aren't, you despicable POS.

Theo

I think Arizona might be in play. The last poll I saw showed 30% undecided. Trump usually does poorly with late deciders. Plus, if one assumes that Cruz gets most of Rubio's supporters (a reasonable but not rock solid assumption) it very much looks like a place where Cruz could win, since that poll had Cruz plus Rubio within MOE of Trump.

lyle

Finally, I do not think that he has the temperament or experience to be the President.

I don't disagree but I'm a professed agnostic re Trump. But at this point, given the last seven years and considering the alternative to him by the Dems...[shudder]

Theo

lyle --

I totally agree that the choice between Trump and Rodham is a very ugly choice, particularly if death is not an option. My main point is that I would urge people not to let it come to that but nominate a real Republican. There is still some hope I think.

Thomas Collins

Of the three candidates left, Kasich, Cruz and Trump, Kasich and Cruz both perform better in the national polls than Trump at the moment. But from my way of looking at it (which I concede is certainly not the only way), it's worse than the current gap. I keep hearing that Trump has insurgents in his camp or is going to bring people into his camp who haven't voted for the GOP ticket in the past or haven't voted at all. Well, why aren't these people showing up in the national polls? Are they less likely to talk to pollsters? I would think if they were that excited, they'd be more than happy to express their preferences.

Trump has been in the public eye for a long time. I don't think people are going to change their view of him much between now and November.

For anyone who thinks Trump is far better than Cruz or Kasich as a matter of policy, I can see how such a person would conclude that it's better to work for Trump and try to convince the GOP to get behind him quickly. But for others, there is no compelling reason to start trumpeting someone who at the moment is far from wrapping up the nomination race.

Porchlight

Plus, if one assumes that Cruz gets most of Rubio's supporters (a reasonable but not rock solid assumption)

Not real sure about that, Theo. I would assume most of Rubio's votes *in AZ* would go to Kasich. If you're GOP in a red state like AZ and not already voting Cruz or Trump, you're probably a Kasich or Rubio guy. But you might be right that Cruz could pull it out if he gets most of the late deciders.

It's just interesting that Cruz isn't leading in the first place, if his supporters are correct that he's as strong on immigration as Trump is.

lyle

Here's the problem, though: show me a "real Republican" and I'll show you someone despised by both parties The UniParty®.

Theo

TC --

To no one's surprise, I agree with you.

The hard reality is that well known people with high unfavorable ratings almost never significantly reduce those negatives. It is one of the reasons why Trump is such a wasted opportunity. Rodham has very high unfavorable ratings herself. The one person who has worse ones is Trump. Why go there?

And you are right. Those people who think that Trump has better policies than Cruz or Kasich or would be a better president than either of them.....well, their support for Trump makes some sense if you do not accept that nominating Trump is the same as electing Rodham. But for anyone who wants to elect a Republican this year, I think they should decide which of the not Trump candidates has the best shot and get behind him.

Thomas Collins

To me, the best argument for Trump is based on how much he has outperformed expectations so far, which indicates resourcefulness that would be useful when it's just Trump and The Hill. In addition, it could be argued that Trump's ability to get his message out, and his willingness to touch The Hill's hot buttons (such as Team Clinton's war on women), will spell the difference. I don't buy it, but I can't say it's an unreasonable position.

JeanD

Bricker, Buckeye?

Porchlight

Well, why aren't these people showing up in the national polls? Are they less likely to talk to pollsters? I would think if they were that excited, they'd be more than happy to express their preferences.

I don't want to go down the "unskew the polls" road again. But there have been some big misses in state polling on both the D and R sides.

I think that it's been difficult for the national pollsters to account for some of the shifts. There actually are primary voters out there who are first choice Sanders, second choice Trump. Or first choice Sanders, second choice Kasich. Nobody in polling knows what to do with that. Are these people really going to show up in November? Who knows?

But one thing we do know is that all the enthusiasm and turnout is on the R side. And unquestionably Trump is driving some of that, because if he wasn't, he wouldn't be winning.

Theo

Porch --

I am not "real sure" that Rubio's support goes to Cruz in Arizona either. I just based that comment on some national polls showing that among Rubio supporters Cruz was the second choice among a strong majority of them.

Again, some big IFs here. IF the large undecided vote breaks in favor of Cruz. IF most of Rubio's support goes to Cruz (at least more so than goes to Trump), then it is not unrealistic to think that Cruz could pull it off.

A Cruz win in a winner take all state like AZ would be a serious blow to Trump's first ballot chances. But we will know on Tuesday night.

Thomas Collins

The NY poll has really thrown me for a loop, Theo. I would have thought Trump would have been within a few points of The Hill and a few points ahead of Comrade Sanders in The Empire State.

Buckeye

Finally, I do not think that he has the temperament or experience to be the President.

Theo, I share those concerns but don't feel as strongly as you do.

Obama didn't have those qualifications, but he got elected anyway. And then got elected a second time after confirming he didn't have what it takes.

People make "buying" decisions emotionally, not rationally. Trump is popular for the same reason the Kardashians have a TV show.

I'm not trying to discount your concerns, simply pointing out that it takes a different kind of "pitch" to influence change.

For the most part, the voting public is ignorant and not capable of clear thinking, so an argument based on reason or logic usually fails.

Theo

Porch --

Trump is "winning" with 37% of the Republican primary vote so far. If you look at what the polls show are the second choices of NON Trump voters, it seems unlikely that he could win a two person race (although he may have banked enough delegates to be able to do so now, even if he could not have done it from the beginning).

The enthusiasm and energy is almost always on the side of the party that has been out of the White House for the last 8 years. This is not Trump's doing. I think that Trump and his high negatives will hurt that enthusiasm and energy in the general.

I do think that head to head matchup polls this early are not very predictive. Maybe Trump can continue to confound and amaze. But I think his ability to energize and get votes from working class whites, particularly men, is a lot more helpful to him in a Republican primary against a divided field than it will be in a general election.

Truthbetold

Trump is getting a complete pass from the media the same way Obama did.

Why do you think that is?

Theo

Buckeye @ 1:53

True that, brother.

clarice

Peter,peter,peter--that old canard about disposable diapers was long debunked--it doesn't take into consideration the water, labor and pesticides to grow the cotton and produce them nor the water ,energy and soap it takes to keep them clean.

TC and Theo get a room.

I think with Porch the polls are-meh. I look at crowds and turnout.

Truthbetold

Clarice

Tell the folks why Trump is your guy.

lyle

Dear gawd, this is tedious.

Buckeye

Bricker, Buckeye?

JeanD. Yes. Mrs. Buckeye's paternal grandmother and John Bricker were first cousins. They grew up on adjacent farms and spent a lot of time together at their grandma Anderson's house.

Her grandma's brother Herbert and John went to college together at OSU and hung around together, more like brothers.

When Buckeye Jr. was touring campus (OSU) while still in high school, the kid doing the tour took the group of prospective students past the Administration building named after Bricker. He ask if anyone knew who he was. Jr. said "yes, he's my cousin";)

Threadkiller

Trump usually does poorly with late deciders. 

Is there a site that shows this?

clarice

http://atimes.com/2016/03/trump-triumphed-due-to-downward-mobility/

Polls, shmolls.

Destiny Ignatz

--But those are my views and they are not part of an attempt to curry favor with anyone.--

Theo,
I thought and hoped I had made it abundantly clear I exempted Trump critics like you, TC and Rick, who express legitimate concerns about the guy and was referring instead to the B-movie GOPe starlets clutching their pearls with one hand and the back of the other held to their mouth in mock horror at the Trump From Another World emerging from the zeitgeistian ooze.

narciso

Did they do this second choice carp, with maverick or mittens, they shoved him down (redacted) we needed a specialist, and yet they either threw the match or played like a south florida sports franchise.

Threadkiller

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/18/gop-smart-set-plots-blacklist-of-trump-supporters/

Enemies list?

jimmyk on iPhone

"They caught Salah Abdelslam alive. The organizer of the Paris terror attacks"

Gosh, I hope they don't waterboard him for information. That would just be too mean.

Theo

Ignatz --

I appreciate that.

Beasts of England

Wonderful political cartoon in our paper today by the local artist, re: the GOP(e):

On one hand: "We're trying to block Obama's Supreme Court nominee because 'voters should have a say...'

On the other hand: "We're trying to block Trump from getting the nomination because 'voters can't be trusted...'

I think that about sums it up.

Theo

"Trump usually does poorly with late deciders.

Is there a site that shows this?"

TK --

Look at the exit polls. The earlier people decided who to vote for, the more they are Trump voters. I think that the pattern is pretty much universal but I did not check every state.

Threadkiller

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/03/18/sweden-earth-hour-blackout-cancelled-because-of-migrant-rape/

henry

The part that gets me is it started as Cruz being unelectable because of negatives, then became Trump once he started winning delegates. Thus it comes off as more a GOPe "you'll like the tomato can we select for you" exercise more than a dispassionate review of polling data.

Appalled

Just a thought. It is a long time from now until August. The ardor for Trump may cool by the time of the convention, and it may cool enough that stunts can be pooled at the convention without anyone except a noisy group of Trump supporters caring.

That's what the GOP leadership is hoping for at the moment. And it does give Trump a chance to try out the role of presumptive nominee, and see if he can do it without causing massive Hillary failure.

jimmyk on iPhone

"Trump has been in the public eye for a long time. I don't think people are going to change their view of him much between now and November."

I'm going to disagree. Yes, he's been in the public eye, but he's still in pretty uncharted waters as a candidate for President. A lot of what's in the polls now in the polls is based on pretty limited or erroneous information.

Threadkiller

Theo, is there somewhere where this is cataloged?

Florida seems to not jive with the theory, I think.

Theo

TK --

If I get a chance I will look into it. I was going from memory and of course as I get older that gets less reliable.

Porchlight

Good point narciso - no one was interested in anyone's second choice in 2008 or 2012. A win was a win, McCain/Romney was racking it up, and everyone else needed to be a good drone and support the nominee.

A little trip back in time to March 25, 2012, after Santorum won the Louisiana primary:

While Romney continues to struggle with conservatives, though, Santorum still trails by a wide margin in the delegate race, and Saturday's primary in Louisiana won't do much to change that.

Just 20 of the state's 46 delegates to the Republican National Convention were up for grabs based on Saturday's results, and they will be split proportionally between Santorum and Romney as long as Romney clears 25 percent of the vote in final results.

The latest projections from both the Associated Press and Republican National Committee indicate Romney leads the delegate count by about 300 delegates.

Romney is now almost exactly halfway to winning the 1,144 delegates he needs to secure the Republican nomination.

It's now March 18th, 2016, Trump is more than halfway to the needed 1237, and he leads the runner up by 265 delegates. And the narrative is all about how he can't seal the deal and this thing is by no means decided.

Threadkiller

Ain't that the truth, Theo.

Theo

TK --

From CNN:

"Decision Day


Among Republicans, between 15% and about one-third said they made up their mind in the final days of the contest, which is similar to the 29% of late-deciders in other Republican contests.

Trump continued his trend Tuesday of winning support from a core group of early supporters. In North Carolina, 42% who decided in the last week went with Ted Cruz and 46% who decided before then went with Trump. In Missouri, the split was 48% who decided in the last week went for Cruz and 48% who decided earlier went for Trump. But in Florida, Trump won both early and late deciders -- 38% of those who picked in the last week and 50% who decided earlier."

I guess Florida is an outlier, but the pattern is as I described.

narciso

Late deciders rarely make a difference, perhaps in iowa, but there were other variables involved

Threadkiller

Would you post the link, Theo? I will check it out later.

Thanks.

narciso

So in mizzou they tied.

Theo

Porch --

I do not understand your comment. Second choices matter when candidates drop out of the race and leave two or more candidates still contending. If all of Rubio's support went to Cruz in Arizona (a big if, but still, if) then the race there would be very close with a lot of undecided voters. OF COURSE second choices are thus important. Talking about who the Rubio supporters will vote for is not some anti Trump plot and nothing that went down in any earlier primary season would suggest otherwise.

narciso

We go with quarter quell we were saddled with, medici was eliminated early perhaps like Romney in 2008.

Theo

TK -

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/15/politics/super-tuesday-exit-polls/index.html

For some reason my browser will not find me the actual exit polls, just write ups about it. If someone can link to the polls themselves I would appreciate it.

Theo

narciso --

No, in Missouri Cruz won among late deciders and Trump won among early deciders.

cheerleader

Be careful about "hypno therapy" Mr. Trump calls his world view common sense conservatism. At long last, thousands of Democrats are breaking away from the strict control of the Democrat party, an incredible liberation that is diminished if it's called mind control even as a joke.

Theo

And, just to be clear, actually the pattern did to some extent hold up in Florida.

Yes, Trump won late deciders in Florida, but he won them by a much smaller margin than he won early deciders there. In other states -- and I think in most other states -- he out and out lost among late deciders.

Given that an astonishing 30% of Arizona voters are said to be undecided as of a week before the election, there is some cause for hope in the Cruz camp. But it depends on (a) picking up the lion's share of the Rubio supporters and (b) a strong break in his favor among the undecided.

narciso

To establish they aren't selling you a narrative, you set a baseline.

narciso

In similar circumstances, reactions should be the same.

cheerleader

danoso,

"The party establishment will do whatever they can to stop my father because they realize if he gets in there, the little game they're used to playing where everyone takes care of everyone else and everyone makes money off each other and everyone's doing incredibly well for doing nothing, That all ends."

(Donald Trump Jr. in Elko Nevada)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IqfRbjcpDYv=1IqfRbjcpDY

DebinNC

Rubio bizarrely morphed from amiable, articulate Dr. Jekyll into Giggling Mr. PeePee-DingDong in the 10 days preceding FL's primary. So, of course there were suddenly a lot of late deciders thinking, "OMG, what do I do now?" I think Rubio sudden going suicide bomber jarred the race atypically.

Truthbetold

Isn't Donald Trump Jr. the new head of Trump U?

Art in Newport

At this stage of the game in the election of 1980, the polls shower Reagan way behind Carter.

I didn't believe those polls, and I don 't believe the polls now showing Trump way behind either democrat.

lyle

After reading yesterday's and today's WSJ over lunch (El Diablo sushi roll, if you're wondering), I can assure you they're all in for The Mailman's Son. Who has won a single primary to date. Not Cruz who's won more. Kasich. Gee, I wonder why...

lyle

The editorial pages, that is. The rest is in the tank for Cankles.

Art in Newport

showed

Porchlight

Theo at 2:40:

I'm not saying that second choices are not important. I'm just pointing out that the storyline in 2016 was not "But most of the vote is anti-Romney! But other guys won states too!" like it is today. People just watched the wins pile up and assumed that even with the occasional loss in more conservative states, Romney would be the nominee, and supporters of other candidates ought to shut up and support him.

DebinNC

As the weather improves now and through the summer, is it likely fewer swarms of illegals will pour in via Mexico? As BOzo's time in office blessedly comes to an end, will he do fewer things that roil the electorate like emptying the jails of people of color, bringing in many more muslim refugees, supporting more rioting in Baltimore, St. Louis, and other blue hells? And HC has tied herself to him ticker than a tick.

Truthbetold

Outsider or Insider Trump? Donald Trump’s NWO Connections

http://freedom-articles.toolsforfreedom.com/insider-trump-nwo-connections/

Appalled

I am just putting this post out there:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/432961/donald-trump-riot-comments-disqualify-him-presidency

Buckeye

http://atimes.com/2016/03/trump-triumphed-due-to-downward-mobility/

If you didn't read the Goldman article Clarice linked, it is well worth your time. Does a decent job of explaining what is driving some of the emotion behind the Trump following. I think this is also driving much of the Bernie camp, they just prefer a different solution

In the comments, someone added "Goldman is socially insulated enough to think we're only chasing the palliative when we're actually hoping more for the punitive."

Huge growing resentment towards what people perceive as undeserved wealth. Not being rich, but how people got there.

JeanD

Theo,

Neither Trump supporters nor Cruz supporters are thwarting the #neverTrumpers.

The #neverTrumpers are being thwarted by the media and the GOP/RNC.

The media loves the money that flows from their coverage of Trump, and the RNC/GOP still haven't decided that they hate Cruz less than they hate Trump. If that decision were made, I imagine that Kasich would be strongly encouraged to step aside, and robust efforts to support Cruz would be implemented immediately.

I wanted Cruz in OH, but voted for Trump with the hope that he would win and send Kasich to the also ran pile. Voting for Cruz seemed to me a wasted vote since he was running a distant third.

I didn't get my wish, but the party could certainly remove Kasich from the mix with the proper combination of promises, goodies, and other consolation prizes.

They have not elected to do so, and we will see how that works out for them.

danoso

At this stage of the game in the election of 1980, the polls shower Reagan way behind Carter.

Yep, Reagan was 25 points down in March 1980.

Personally, I think we're pretty much f'ed regardless. I just want a good show, and having Trump hang all over the Clintons like they're a freakin' human trellis for 8 months will make it worth it.

sbw

Appalled: I am just putting this post out there

Sure you were.

sbw

What do you suppose Trump wants from the presidency?

Thomas Collins

Art in Newport, Reagan had at least four campaigns before his 1980 POTUS run (brief fling in 1968 for the GOP POTUS nomination), two runs for California Guv, and the drawn out 1976 GOP POTUS nomination run). In addition, he had eight years of big state governing experience. Finally, he was running against a Carter hobbled by the Iran hostage crisis. I believe this is Trump's first campaign, and he has no experience as a governmental executive. In addition, unless The Hill is indicted, she will be running as the first potential female POTUS, which should help her immeasurably with feeler low info voters in battleground states. Trump has a bigger mountain to climb than Reagan.

Truthbetold

Never mind what Trump wants. What his puppet-masters want is what should concern you.

Theo

"The party establishment will do whatever they can to stop my father because they realize if he gets in there, the little game they're used to playing where everyone takes care of everyone else and everyone makes money off each other and everyone's doing incredibly well for doing nothing, That all ends."

Yes, this makes perfect sense. The way to end the reign of people in Washington who are getting rich on their deal making skills is to elect a man who tells us over and over again how rich he has gotten as a deal maker.

Brilliant!

Thomas Collins

Notwithstanding my points, Art in Newport, I concede that if one concludes there is something special about the Trump campaign with respect to its appeal to voters who might not otherwise vote GOP, the polls can change. I just don't see Trump as Reagan (although one might then poke me with the notion that in March of 1980, the Reagan who now has laudatory books written about him by blue leaning historians was not that Reagan).

Threadkiller

Trump wants to get his hands on The Whitehouse Xerox Multitask Workcenter.

Porchlight

sbw, did you see the YouTube video I posted yesterday? I don't know if it answers your "what he wants" question, but it shows a pretty consistent rationale over the years for his decision to run.

Donald J. Trump: The Long Road to the White House (1980-2015)

Appalled

What do you suppose Trump wants from the presidency?

Good question. I think I will skip the temptation to psychoanalyze. Nobody likes it when I do.

The better question is what will a Trump presidency do to the constitution and civil society.

lyle

http://www.wsj.com/articles/president-by-default-1458325363

Taranto quote his own paper's article from the front page today (maybe yesterday, I tossed them):

A senior Democrat who has spoken with Clinton campaign officials and others in the party in recent days said the multi-pronged strategy under review includes enlisting the Muslim, Hispanic and gay communities in an effort to paint Mr. Trump as a divisive force in American politics.

Well there's a new twist! Why hasn't this been tried before??

Thomas Collins

I think he wants to go down as a great POTUS, sbw. He thinks he can secure our borders, thus accomplishing something the regular politicians can't or won't. He thinks he can cut deals with other countries that will make things better for American workers. He thinks he can restore America's place in the world as the strong horse, which he thinks has been dissipated by wimpy politicians. I believe he is very sincere in all these thoughts of his.

Truthbetold

The only reason Trump is still standing is because the media is propping him up.

Fox News has jumped the shark with its disgraceful coverage.

So, why does an open borders guy like Rupert Murdoch give Mr. "close the borders" Trump such favorable coverage?

Theo

Porchlight --

I agree with the thrust of your earlier comments to this extent. In the past, the party used a lot of pressure to try to rally around the presumptive nominee and to dissuade people from mounting obviously futile (or at best long shot) last ditch efforts to drag out the process and hurt the nominee in the fall.

That is not the case this year. The reason for that is that for whatever reason a whole lot of people (including yours truly) see a MUCH bigger gap between Trump and Not Trump than between Romney and Not Romney or McCain and Not McCain. In my opinion, for what it is worth, fighting Trump is better for the party and the country than rallying around him before it is absolutely necessary to do so. As long as there is a chance to have another nominee, we should take that chance in my view.

But I understand your point that this treats Trump different than other frontrunners in the recent past. Indeed it does.

lyle

The better question is what will a Trump presidency do to the constitution and civil society.

You apparently lacked this introspection in '08.

Thomas Collins

Unfortunately, lyle, it's been tried and worked the last two times. As Al Davis might have said, JUST TURN OUT, BABY! Team Obama was very effective in getting the Dem base to vote (in some cases, probably early and often).

Destiny Ignatz

-- I just don't see Trump as Reagan ...--

You don't have to. Reagan is hardly the only man elected president after trailing rather substantially in the polls months before the election.
Why look at some history, such as Reagan's experience, while ignoring other like the dismal record of a party holding on to the WH after eight years especially with as lackluster a record as Barry's?

Thomas Collins

Was anyone else elected with such high negatives in March and with such lousy poll numbers in his home state, Destiny Ignatz? I don't think so.

Appalled

Well I had the similar introspection -- I could have done a better job of comparative application with respect to the candidates...

Destiny Ignatz

--Nobody likes it when I do.--

It's not an objection to psychoanalysis per se.
It's just that you're so bad at it. :)

Thomas Collins

As far as Obama goes, I believe his favorables have crept up. Not significantly, but he's holding his own in the polls for a POTUS in his eighth year.

Theo

TC --

The Democrats clearly need to turn out marginal LIV voters. It is why they have done so much better in presidential elections than in mid terms, particularly with Obama on the ticket.

I am very doubtful of Rodham's ability to duplicate that kind of turnout on her own. She is not well liked even by Democrats. There is not a lot of enthusiasm for her candidacy among young people or men, even among Democrats. I think that she would lose a turnout war where the Republicans were motivated by being out of power for the last 8 years and the Democrats were complacent and not enthusiastic about their nominee -- UNLESS the Republican nominee was someone that could easily be vilified as rich white misogynist who hates brown people and who, by the way, lacks temperament or experience.

Destiny Ignatz

--Was anyone else elected with such high negatives in March and with such lousy poll numbers in his home state, Destiny Ignatz?-

Well there are some historical issues there as well. Trump has never been elected to anything in his state whereas virtually every other pres of the last 100 years, except Eisenhower, has. That kind of skews the stats on who has good numbers in their home state in favor of politicians who match their home state's electorate.
We also have the problem that NY is also arguably Hillary's home state.
All in all; not very persuasive, TC.

Moreover just because you don't think so doesn't mean it's so and I'm sure not trying to find the stats, if they even exist.

lyle

Team Obama was very effective in getting the Dem base to vote

Substitute out that one name and replace it with The Hag. See any difference? The Dem party sure does right now...

JeanD

Buckeye, thanks. Impressive family. :)

glasater

The part that gets me is it started as Cruz being unelectable because of negatives, then became Trump once he started winning delegates. Thus it comes off as more a GOPe "you'll like the tomato can we select for you" exercise more than a dispassionate review of polling data

Amen, henry! GOPe attacked Cruz and did first damage because they didn't take Trump seriously.

And I believe my dear birthday mate TC needs to come 'out West' for a time to learn how despised 0bama is..& that is transferred to The Hill.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Wilson/Plame