Megan McArdle On #NeverTrump vs. #TrumpOn

OK, I made up that second  hashtag but I'm sure there is one out there for his supporters and I'm sure it's not #TrumpUberAlles.

Megan McArdle listened to the NeverTrump side; today she has a column about the Trump supporters. She crystallizes seven reactions by the supporters, and dismisses the first five:

1. Of course they won’t vote for him! Trump is smashing their cushy establishment control over the party!
2. Of course they won’t vote for him! Trump is going to actually force the party to do something about immigration and make them move their companies back from China!
3. Of course they won’t vote for him! Trump is going to stop their obsessive focus on tax cuts and Obamacare to focus the party on the issues that Real Americans actually care about!
4. Of course they won’t vote for him! They’re neocon hawks who would be more comfortable with a Clinton presidency!
5. Of course they won’t vote for him! They’re exactly the sort of crypto-Democrats we need to run out of the party!
6. Of course they won’t vote for him! They’re too afraid of the liberal media calling them racist, and it’s exactly this sort of craven capitulation we need to fight!
7. Actually, they will vote for him. They’re just having a bit of a tantrum now.

The first five are dead wrong, based on my (admittedly unscientific) sample.

...

Trump fans should know that the #NeverTrump Republicans who wrote to me are not rejecting you, or even your issues. They are rejecting Donald J. Trump, because they think he is a bad person, so incompetent, aggressive and shamelessly unprincipled that they do not trust him with the Oval Office, or the helm of their party.

This seems like a good moment to exhort folks to take a look at Ace's recent post explaining his ongoing support for the Trump message but rejection of the messenger.

My response to (6) - the evergreen 'racist' charge - is a bit more forceful than Megan's but ladies first (boors to follow):

The Trump fans are at least a little bit right in two of their explanations about Trump abstainers. Some who shout "#NeverTrump" today probably will vote for him, when it comes down to it in November. And some #NeverTrump Republicans are afraid to stand with him because they'll be painted with the same brush as the KKK.

Here’s the concession you really wanted to hear: The media is liberal, it does like to scrutinize conservative politicians for the slightest hint of racism and misogyny, and conservative politicians are hypersensitive to that label. Or at least, most successful ones are. Trump has gotten this far by wearing those labels proudly, and it's not a viable long-term strategy. More on that in the next column.

OK, she does say "some" don't want to wear the racist label. But as to timing, I recall #NeverTrump launching after the fiery Republican debate last Thursday (here is the earliest result for a Twitter search on "#NeverTrump trending"), well before the KKK debacle on Sunday.

As to the racist label, please - the math this campaign is simple. Democrats can't win without energized blacks and youngsters, as was soundly demonstrated in 2010 and 2014. Obama was black enough and young enough to show his smiling self and work the magic. On the campaign trail, Hillary is a not Barack - she is more of an Ambien with a scotch chaser. (Yeah, Trump is a Red Bull with a crystal meth chaser, but energy counts).

Dispatching Bernie by playing the racist/sexist card was not necessary. But even if the Republicans nominated Abraham Lincoln and Mother Teresa Hillary was going to spend six months screaming about Republican racism and sexism.

And since the wealthy, earnest liberals of Hollywood have just been told that they too need absolution, being "sorority racist", well, Hillary's reassurance that they were still better than the Republican variety of racist would be a soothing balm. Last night Hillary trotted out "Let's make America whole" as a slogan. Right - let's make it whole by tarring half the country as racist and sexist. We all know it's coming. Remember, Mitt Romney was an uncaring sexist pig because he had "binders full of women". Hillary is a rape enabler, but so what? KKK!

OK, I'm warming up here. Let me just refocus. Oh, I'll refocus after I thank Kevin Drum for this olive branch and then smack him with it:

Will Conservatives Do the Right Thing in November?

For years, liberals have been arguing that the Republican Party is built on appeals to racist sentiment. It's gotten subtler over time, but it's still there. Sometimes it's overt, other times it merely takes the form of tolerating racial animus in others. Sometimes it comes wrapped in a policy package, other times it's wrapped in dog whistles. Either way, it's all part of the GOP's electoral strategy. They know their base well.

Republicans, needless to say, don't take kindly to this. It's all phony and cynical, a way for liberals to take principled differences and turn them into racial appeals of their own. Sure, there may be racists who vote for Republicans, but there are plenty who vote for Democrats too. It's liberals who are addicted to playing the race card.

But now we're living through the era of Donald Trump.

Trump's a racist and a xenophobe. And a misogynist. We get it.

But when it comes to doing the right thing, it's conservatives who truly have the tough choice this year. Trump looks likely to win the Republican nomination, and that means the right thing for them to do is to literally hand the presidency to Hillary Clinton. Can you imagine how hard that's going to be? Hillary Clinton! And we're asking them to vote for her. Or, at the very least, to campaign against Trump and cast a protest vote. Either way, they're giving up their chance to kill Obamacare, to nominate a Supreme Court judge, to restore religious liberty as they see it, and to repeal all those executive orders they hate.

Will they do it? I don't know, but it's no joke to say that I feel their pain. All the cynicism and schadenfreude in the world can't mask how hard this is going to be. Conservatives are about to be tested as few political movements ever are.

Hmmph - one might well ask, are the Democrats going to do the right thing this spring and dump Hillary? The case can be made that her email conduct was criminal (the full Loretta Lynch cover-up and possible FBI protest resignations may be delayed until after her nomination). Her Goldman Sachs cronyism, contempt for questions from the press or her own party about the Goldman transcripts, her rape-enabling, her ongoing shakedowns through the out-of-control Clinton Foundation - why is this a hard choice for Democrats, or a choice at all? This is not "Hold your nose" and vote for Hillary; this is "put on the hip-waders". Oh, because "history" and "Scary racist sexist Republicans". And because the electorate is clearly calling out for four more years of crony capitalism and with Jeb! out who embodies that better than Hillary?

I'm a racist whoever I back, Chris Rock says Kevin Drum is a racist, Bernie Sanders and his supporters want millions of impoverished dark-skinned people to die, and away we go. Welcome to 2016.

OK, I did get sidetracked. Should have stopped at the Red Bull.

Megan offered a seventh point from Trump supporters commenting on the #NeverTrumpers:

Actually, they will vote for him. They’re just having a bit of a tantrum now.

Well... Trump gave a relatively restrained, bombast-free press conference rather than a victory speech last night. That does not rebut the criticism that he is a chameleon and a con man, but it may bring people home.

And as much as I say right now I could be OK with Hillary winning, if the inevitable email cover-up is bad enough and the prospect of her picking a Supreme Court Justice becomes even more of a "Set a thief to catch a thief" issue, well - let me be the first to claim hiding space behind Sean Connery's kilt and I'll rehearse a mumbled "Never Say Never Again".

But that is down the road. This is not that day!

 

 

 

 

Comments

[Buckeye]

MT

I am sure Mrs. MT figured out very quickly that the student assistant was a needed friend for that quarter. She knows how to get results!

[GUS]

This FLINT RIVER water story is a hoot!!

When did the City of Flint's decisions become the FEDERAL GOVT or the GOP'S concern??

Milwaukee has been dumping BILLLLIONS with a B of gallons of crappy crap crap into LAKE MICHIGAN for years.

DEMOCRATS ALL.

[PDinDetroit]

Happy Birthday Jane!

[James D]

New page, new post of the link:

http://www.easypolls.net/poll.html?p=56d261bae4b01668ec061dbf

You guys are just the best!

Now if only we could manage the same trick with that other poll, the one on November 8th this year...

[GUS]

Oh yes Henry, same strip mall, I've been to GUITAR CENTER more times than I voted for JAMES!!!!!!!!

[Jeff Dobbs]

I like this chart from the GOP on voting so far in primaries....shows the discrepancy between Rs and Ds in a handy to view and share format...

I note that only Bernie's Vermont is down for the R's versus 2012...

[PDinDetroit]

Grief. Really sucks when someone you love is dying. Plug has been pulled, hope the passing is quick. I will miss my mother in law (wife's stepmom).

[henry]

I thought so Gus... i swing by when I get a haircut at the Supercuts there.

[narciso]

So sorry to hear that, pd.

[henry]

So sorry to hear that PDinDet.

[Old Lurker]

Sorry PD.

[James D]

So sorry, PD. Prayers for you and your family.

[NK]

Happy B-Day Jane!

[Dave (in MA)]

My sympathy, PD.

[Buckeye]

Gus

Speaking of guitars, I assume you have spent time (and probably money) in Gruhn's Guitars?

[Centralcal on iPad]

So sorry, PD.

[Threadkiller]

I'm sorry, PD.

[henry]

Wow, the NYT now claims Trump is Tea Party, the ultimate evil in our society. This in a concern trolling of Paul Ryan, which blames Ryan for helping the Tea Party at the beginning. (Note, Ryan was very open to the Tea Party here in WI -- he is now more open to the Chamber).

[clarice]

Smooches, elliott.

[PDinDetroit]

Pagliano granted immunity in exchange for testimony in the Clinton Email Investigation. Hopefully, this spells the end of her campaign.

[Buckeye]

Little sis of a high school girlfriend took her 28 year old son Matt home today from the hospital.

He has been receiving treatments for leukemia, but it can't be stopped.

Yesterday he posted a note on FB that he has 30-45 days left and much preferred to be home with his family than waiting to die in a hospital.

He also expressed his confidence in his salvation and let his friends know that he was at peace.

I was dumbfounded and awe struck by his wisdom and courage.

[clarice]

Sorry,PD.

[Buckeye]

Thinking of you also PD.

[Truthbetold]

Trump is a Soros Trojan horse

[Jane]

So sorry PD. Hang tough!

[NK]

JeffD-- thanks for the 2 stats this morning. The first proves that the Repub nomination is legitimately and completely up for grabs. Le Donald has no claim to the crown. Recent events (GOPe yanking $$$ from Rubio and Mailman's son and Carson dropping out seem to make Cruz an inside track, IF Rubio wins Fla's 99 delegates.) The other stat is turnout. The anti-DC voters have turned out in Repub primaries. The GOP needs to keep the protest vote happy and turning out in November. They should for Cruz, as long as Le Donald does not play spoiler.

[Jane]

Elliott! you instigator! It's worth getting older to see you show up!

[narciso]

No he's a division asset, did I say that outliud.

[PDinDetroit]

Last Friday, my mother in law (Dana's Step Mother) had a food airway obstruction where she was without oxygen for approximately 8-11 minutes. Heimlich Manoeuvre unsuccessful. She was in a coma, most she got to was 15% brain function. Doctors declared no hope yesterday and life support removed.

Love each other often as we just never know how long we have here.

[NK]

PD-- OMG, what a terrible thing. So sorry for your family's loss.

[Truthbetold]

NK

Trump is getting crossover votes that will return to the dems in the general.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Bryan is pretty close to useless as a comparison.
First and most importantly, he was following a fairly disastrous admin under Grover Cleveland, an admin of his own party.
Trump is not.
Second while it is true the Reps dominated after Bryan it is less than complete, because of course they dominated for decades prior to that as well.

That is not to say there are no similarities. Bryan was a populist but the histircal factors cited above far outweigh that.
However the comparison can become eerily similar if some people have their way.
If Trump gets the nomination and the GOPe and whiny baby conservatives and neo cons sufficiently sabotage Trump to ensure a Hillary victory by either supporting her, or as the idiot Dems did in 1896, run a third party candidate and sufficiently split the vote then yes Bryan will be a fitting parallel indeed only it won't be Trump who caused the problem or elected the opposition.

I guess the question is are the panicking GOPes and conservatives sufficiently stupid to crucify Trump on his wall of gold?

[PDinDetroit]

I know some lifelong Democrats here in the Detroit Area who are all in for Trump. I was dumbfounded at their support but awestruck by their enthusiasm. They will not vote for Socialist Bernie nor Criminal Hillary, but will turnout for Trump.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Porch, what is going on with the GOP in Travis County?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/03/03/texas-republican-disaster-new-county-chair-is-conspiracy-theorist-who-tweets-of-feeling-boobylicious/

I saw this briefly last night. Trump's good friend (maybe a better descriptor for their relationship?) Roger Stone was apparently heavily involved in the effort.

Robert Morrow
‏@RobMorroLiberty
@RogerJStoneJr I would like to thank co-author Roger Stone for masterminding my election as the chair of Travis County Republican Party!!
11:56 PM - 1 Mar 2016

...

Roger Stone
‏@RogerJStoneJr
I have inserted my man @RobMorroLiberty as Travis Co GOP Chairman @MattMackowiak @mmfa
12:44 AM - 2 Mar 2016

...

Roger Stone
‏@RogerJStoneJr
Amazing what 20,000 Trump-Morrow robo-calls can achieve
www.texastribune.org/2016/03/02/newly-elected-gop-chair-texas-capitol/ …
3:44 PM - 2 Mar 2016

Stone seems to be a special kind of crazy himself......

Roger Stone
‏@RogerJStoneJr
.@marcorubio... the billionaire boy toy of the Koch Bros hits @GovJVentura's record as Governor in MN. Jesse's tax cuts were #YUGE.
1:09 PM - 1 Mar 2016

...

Roger Stone ‏@RogerJStoneJr Abundently clear that @tedcruz beat @realDonaldTrump in Texas only thru wide-spread voter fraud - LBJ would be proud 12:38 AM - 2 Mar 2016

[Jeff Dobbs]

of course....

new thread

[Truthbetold]

PDinDetroit

That works for Soros as well

[Porchlight]

PDinDetroit, I'm so very sorry to hear that.

[Porchlight]

Wow, crazy story, Jeff. At least it's Travis County - that's probably why he's here, it's so hopeless.

Yeah, Stone is something else, isn't he?

[NK]

Roger Stone is the Repub version of David Brock.

[narciso]

Yikes, morrow is a long time JFK conspiracy theorist, claims he was a via agent, on the qt. Actually gruntled division reject.

[Jeff Dobbs]

NK:
Roger Stone is the Repub version of David Brock.

Well, I found it curious that Stone tweeted @mmfa in the one about "inserting" Morrow in the Travis Co GOP....what was that about? They're not friends - and mmfa hates his guts - was Stone just needling them?

Going down the rabbit hole once I started reading Stone stuff ... MMFA has a story about Stone saying Judge Napalitano of Fox would be Trump's number one choice for SCOTUS. I'll chalk that up to Stone being Stone and not a serious reflection of something Trump has actually said publicly or privately.

[GUS]

Buckeye, Gruhns' makes me cry. So many guitars that I cannot have!!

[Porchlight]

Roger Stone is the Repub version of David Brock.

I almost typed that exact thing but actually Stone is further out in wackoland than Brock.

[sbw]

I will miss my mother in law (wife's stepmom)

That’s too bad, PD. After a bumpy road, we came to realize that in very alive memories my MIL is still with us. May your MIL remain vibrant and alive forever with you, too.

[PDinDetroit]

Thank you all for the well wishes. You guys really do rock.