Moving The Markets

Trump continues to fade in the betting market for the Republican nomination. Rubio has also taken a sock on the jaw while Cruz is, fine, cruisin'.

Comments

[glasater]

Gamblers know 'nutting.. I used to be one.. :-)

[Captain Hate]

Surely there's something to blog about other than this endless election.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Yesterday was the first time ever that Cruz moved ahead of Rubio for the Republican nomination in the betting markets.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Nope, CH. There's not. What beer are you drinking? What music are you listening to?

In the meantime...

So, I keep kinda forgetting that we've got a slug of states voting on Tuesday - with all the talk about OH and FL on the 15th.

HI 19
ID 32
MI 59
MS 40

That's a total of 150 delegates up for grabs...compared to the 155 last night. All states are proportional (ID has a ceiling of 50% in which a candidate could make it winner take all). HI, ID, and MI are closed and MS is open.

HI and ID? Who knows. Cruz spent a chunk of yesterday in ID (where's our Boize crew? derwill?), but no polling to be had. ID is moving back to a primary after previously holding caucuses. HI is a no man's land of campaigning, polling, reporting, etc, especially on the GOP side.

Trump most certainly will win Mississippi big. It's a primary, not a caucus, and it's open. It should look much more like Alabama than Louisiana. Id does have a 15% threshold. It may be another shut out for Rubio.

That leaves Michigan. Not a lot of polling - but CBS just released on showing Trump ahead of Cruz 39-24. Different terrain - but a 15 point lead doesn't look as formiddable after last night.

Trump was up 6 in KS and Cruz won by 25.
Trump was up 16 in LA and won by 3
Trump was up 13 in KY and won by 4

And the Michigan poll straddled the debate. Too hard to tell if there has been more of a shift from that fallout there.

[Buckeye]

Well if the bookies have it right, Trump has a 4 times better chance than anyone else of beating the hag.

And Romney doesn't make book at all.

[Jeff Dobbs]

So, clicking through the link - the betting market says Cruz has a 77% chance of winning ID.

Hmmmm.

Oh and in super yuge news - returns for Puerto Rico are now coming through. Rubio with 75% with 1% reporting.

[glasater]

The below along with illegals voting in our elections just drives me nuts..

Bank CEO reveals how Obama administration shook him down

The former CEO of Ally Financial Inc. says the Obama administration abused its power by holding the bank’s business hostage in order to coerce a record settlement of “trumped-up” racism charges and push profit-killing new regulations on the entire auto-lending industry.

The huge $100 million deal has spooked several other major lenders into resolving similar race-bias charges and offering below-market rates to minorities for car loans.

Someone should check with Jamie Dimon how 'fair' the 0 admin is.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Buckeye:
Well if the bookies have it right, Trump has a 4 times better chance than anyone else of beating the hag.

No. The betting market is based upon the likelihood of each candidate becoming president from here - not if you are already the nominee.

You might have a 100% chance of beating the hag - if you faced her in the general. But if you only have a 10% chance of winning the nomination, your odds for the Presidency in the betting market are going to be way low.

[hrtshpdbox]

I brought up these betting markets four years ago and was roundly informed it was irrelevant and that the bettors had no idea what they were doing. Same thing when I mentioned whatever Nate Silver was saying about the odds.
::sobs into coffee cup::

[glasater]

returns for Puerto Rico are now coming through. Rubio with 75% with 1% reporting

Heh, that kind of news will not win friends in the anti-illegal people group. It will point to Rubio's squishiness on immigration.

[hrtshpdbox]

I'll bet Puerto Rico goes for Trump, as Puerto Ricans do no like Cubans, period.

[DrJ]

There's an upside to the storm that felled our Olive tree. From our local ski resort, Sugar Bowl:

26" of New Snow and 20" More in the Forecast!

Woohoo! Get psyched because Miracle March has officially arrived! Your beloved peaks, steeps and trails of Sugar Bowl have already received 26” of snow, and there’s plenty more in the forecast. Just when you thought spring may have sprung, winter has come back in all of its glory...

[hrtshpdbox]

"Do not like" Cubans, though I guess "do no like" is alright too.

[Captain Hate]

What beer are you drinking? What music are you listening to?

Southern Tier Creme Brûlée and
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ffgrGSTEReM

[Miss Marple]

http://thefederalist.com/2016/03/05/does-immigration-mean-the-end-of-western-civilization/

This is a long and detailed review of the book "The Camp of the Saints."

Very interesting but depressing.

[Jeff Dobbs]

I'll take that bet hrtshpdbox!

Rubio at 79% now, 3% in.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Thanks, CH.

I'm not sure I could digest either :)

[Joan]

As far as something else to blog about besides this election, this crisis (especially looking at the third picture down) never leaves my mind. Never. (I think someone put this link up yesterday.) And, to add to this, now we have the French threatening to put all of the migrants in Calais on a 'fast' ship to Dover and other ports if England leaves the EU. The entire world is in chaos.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3478935/Putin-stirring-migrant-crisis-stir-anger-Germany-Merkel-ousted-power-senior-Nato-strategist-claims.html

[Marlene]

In non-election news... we saw a Neapolitan Mastiff at the dog beach. Holy carp! That is a dog! I said to the owner,he is impressive! She said that he is the breed of Hagrid's dog. I said,my dog is a Toto. Her dog could have had my dog for a snack. Ha!

[Marlene]

Don't forget that the Dems are holding their caucus in Maine today. The Portland paper reported a 1/2 mile line for one of the voting venues. I'll make a prediction that Bernie will win.

[Miss Marple]

Joan,

It never leaves my mind, either. (See article I posted just above you.)

I have a deep love for European history and architecture. I am sick at what is transpiring.

I guess that is one of the things that gets me so upset about immigration here. There is no screening, no pause, and no let-up. We cannot keep taking in these 3rd-world people forever, and they are a drag both on our economy and are burdening our already failing schools. At least the mexicans are Christians, but as more and more Muslims are let in, we will see the changes already seen in Europe.

[Miss Marple]

Jennifer Rubin has advice on how Cruz and the #NeverTrump people can unify:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2016/03/06/could-cruz-ever-unify-the-gop/?postshare=5411457296063659&tid=ss_tw

She advises he choose as VP candidate either Mike Pence of Indidna (hahahahahahaha) or Tim Pawlenty.

[jimmyk]

the betting market says Cruz has a 77% chance of winning ID.

Makes sense, given that so many Idahoans are JOMers.

Re Michigan, haven't polls been more accurate for primaries than for caucuses? (Or is that cauci?) I'd be satisfied with a KY or LA type performance for Cruz.

[maryrose]

Cruz/Trump ticket is a winner
Hil to be indicted soon
If Paul Ryan emerges the strongest candidate why not draft him

[Captain Hate]

Rubin is at least one time zone away from her happy place in that article. I will settle for nothing less than complete surrender from her and the rest of her RINO coven.

[Miss Marple]

maryrose,

I think someone who has been uninvolved in the campaign up to now is not acceptable.

I am also suspicious of that meeting he had with Romney.

Finally, he lost the debate to Slow Joe.

[Breedlove's just jealous.]

Heh, 'non precision'.

[maryrose]

ARG poll has Kasich up by 2

[Miss Marple]

Captain Hate,

I know. I thought the article was funny.

Cruz should do this, Cruz should do that, and then maybe the GOPe can settle for him, but ONLY if he chooses as VP one of their other tomato cans waiting in the wings!

[Second generation will turn Republican.]

Yes, MM, is it a mercy that our invaders are co-religionists, and practically co-lingual.

I also sometimes argue that they are not natural born Democrats. They didn't come here to be serfs.

[maryrose]

He didn't lose debate to SloJoe

Joe Biden looked and acted like a idiot
Media massaged the story to benefit Slo Joe
My main goal is to win with whomever can accomplish that
MM
I was reassured last night by Trump saying he will nominate conservative judges

[Joan]

Another thing I mull over -- the poor benighted, uneducated migrants in Calais, from countries like Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan, Eritrea and Syria, who try to stop and clamber on lorries getting ready to cross the channel to Great Britain -- some of whom say all they want are jobs and a chance at a better life, how will they accomplish this, if they do make it to England? What do they expect? Jobs? What are they trained for? How will they contribute to their new country?

I watch television shows filmed in England, beautiful England, or France or Italy, even Greece, and I'll wonder 'how are these countries going to absorb all of the African continent's poor and all of the war-ravaged Middle East's poor? Knowing human nature, I'll think 'it can't be done.'

These issues trouble me as much, maybe a little more than our coming presidential election because a world in chaos will present unsolvable problems for a new president, unless we get one of such character and strength and intellect, I fear our way of life is doomed.

Intellectually, I feel inadequate, because I see no answers. All I see hundreds of thousands, if not millions of young men descending upon Europe. Maybe you, Captain Hate, might give me some answers. I'm not being snarky. I am worried and troubled. We have an administration that has, if not stirred this pot by being so indifferent, been feckless in its inattention to our role as leader of the world. Our country is trillions of dollars in debt. The Democratic party believes their best, their very best person to run this country is a worn out, inadequate, leftist, lying hag feminist who couldn't even save her own ambassador in Libya and three other American patriots. That's the Democrat's shining example of a potential leader. And our current leader is in Cuba, admiring their system and country, ignoring the socialism in once-rich Venezuela, and skirting our laws here at home.

And, we now have a pajama boy as prime minister in Canada, who says he hand-picked a few thousand refugees from Syria (or Afghanistan, I'm not sure which.) That's how he can be sure they're all a-ok. Much better than our system here in the USA.

And, a young woman, minus one leg that was blown off in Boston about three years ago, is getting ready to run in the Boston Marathon on one of those prosthetic legs in just a few weeks. I salute a human spirit like that.

I just wish I had some answers.

[We could do worse, and are trying.]

er, that was supposed to be 'it is a mercy'.

[Joan]

I'm off to have a margarita with my sister. I'll bet you all think I need one, if not two. :)

[Jeff Dobbs]

Trump is not going to be anyone's VP. Not how he rolls.

[Spanglish is easier to learn than Englishanol.]

'practically' is the wrong word, too. Shall we say 'romantically'?

[Jeff Dobbs]

jimmyk:
Re Michigan, haven't polls been more accurate for primaries than for caucuses? (Or is that cauci?) I'd be satisfied with a KY or LA type performance for Cruz.

LA was a primary.

[maryrose]

Let's just let the primaries play out
My husband is an avid Trump guy
My son will not vote as he views the whole process as a scam
And my daughter will vote for the most conservative as will I
If Kasich looks like he can win Ohio we may get on his bandwagon

[maryrose]

In short my above comments prove this whole election is a crap shoot

[Jeff Dobbs]

maryrose:
ARG poll has Kasich up by 2

And ARG's poll has Kasich up double what his average is in other polls. No way that's not an outlier.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Puerto Rico will be the first primary in which a candidate has exceeded 50% of the vote.

#Marcomentum!

[Jeff Dobbs]

Oh, should have noted - PR has a ceiling of 50% - so Rubio will get all 23 delegates.

#Marcomentum!

[Population of two, so take it for what it's worth. Heh, two sense worth.]

I don't like Kasich on the word of his fellow state dwellers and his lies about Medicaid expansion, as well as other reasons, but there is anecdotal word of movement in the yutes.

[Buckeye]

Buckeyette just got back from a Kasich rally. Said he will win Michigan because we "let" Michigan State win against Ahia State, men and women yesterday.

My prediction. He just lost Ahia;)

[Hates Hillary enough to consider the other party.]

One of 'em, a Bernie supporter, actually watches Repub. debates.

[Truthbetold]

Trump supporters make the mistake of thinking that no one controls Trump.

Trump has puppet-masters!

[Muppet Pasters, pity those with only a few.]

Autonomous Truth blind to its own jerkiness.

[jimmyk]

LA was a primary.

I realize, and Cruz was able beat the polling in LA vs Trump by 13, where in the KS caucus he beat the polling by 31. My point was just that Cruz will have a hard time closing a 15 point gap in MI, it being a primary. Michigan Republicans are traditionally not so hardcore conservative.

[Buckeye]

Melania can pull my strings any time she wants to.

[clarice]

http://dcwhispers.com/so-far-trump-has-defeated-cruz-by-more-than-600000-votes/

Trump has garnered 600k more votes than Cruz so far.

[hrtshpdbox]

What beer are you drinking? What music are you listening to?

Beer, last night, Troeg's Saison Scratch #227 (great, reminds me of some of the Weizan's I drank in Germany). Listening to an eclectic mix of classic rock, garage and soul 45's as I clean 'em up and get them ready to list on Ebay (great little hobby).

[Last Chance Saloon.]

What better time for Cruz and Trump to deal?

[And three towns over, 'crost the dry county.]

Heh, competition for last chance is just down the street.

[James D.]

Yes, MM, is it a mercy that our invaders are co-religionists, and practically co-lingual.

I also sometimes argue that they are not natural born Democrats. They didn't come here to be serfs.

Maybe not. But they ARE coming from societies where they were basically serfs, and that's what they know, and (thanks largely to the progs, although the GOPe shares some blame, too) we are making no effort at all to teach them otherwise.

[hrtshpdbox]

Cruz/Bush. But only if Bush is offered a "co-presidency", and if the editorial board at National Review gets thumbs-down power for all SC nominees. Nothing less will do, the mighty GOPe uber alles!

[hrtshpdbox]

Trump has puppet-masters!

Trilateral commission, or the Lizard People?

[And that has will makes all the difference.]

Mebbe so, but this isn't something taught. It is learned.

[Yikes, I almost typed that three order of magnitude off. Well, close enough for RSS work.]

With him, it's probably the owner of the $500,000,000,000,000 bank. For the innumerate among us, that's the five hundred trillion dollar bank.

[Judy's on it, as are others.]

Mears and RSS in big kerfuffle over satellite temp. series. More government chicanery, again, as with Karl, rejecting good data for bad, and for models.

[hrtshpdbox]

Drudge is amazing in his dogged Love of Trump; at the moment one of the stories he links to at the top of his page (which he lists as "Roger Stone: Who Is The Real Ted Cruz?") was published on the Daily Caller on January 26th. The answer Stone provides, by the way, to the question - Cruz is a wolf, is Nixon, is the ultimate insider.

[Truthbetold]

hrtshpdbox

You apparently buy Trump's self funding BS.

[Payment is expected at time of service.]

You got style like one jerked by internal strings. Whatever you can do, buy your freedom.

[James D.]

Trilateral commission, or the Lizard People?

Lizard People? You're behind the times! According to a documentary (if that's the word) about alien influence on Earth and in the U.S. government, there are actually SIX different species vying for control here:

Long-nose Grays
Short-nose Grays
Blues
Oranges
Reptillians
Humanoids

I mean, I saw it on the History Channel. It must be true!

[Parrot Masters. Some can control cats.]

I'd go with the Grays, I once sat amongst a flock of Africans and their utter silence was eloquent.

[Watch out for the little people.]

History, despite channeling, still grinds its way to the deep.

[I can hear it now.]

See? Now I got a longing for 'The Lady Killers'.

[Jane]

Holy cow, Cruz came to within 2 points of Rubio in Puerto Rico. (36-34).

He's on a roll.

I think Cruz should pick Walker for VP.

[Could be he's tickled the slapstick bone?]

Heh, Trump's the string bass player.

[That's one point in Trump's favor.]

I agree, Jane; I think I called for Cruz/Walker the minute he quit. Needs administration as well as......., well, as well as.

[Deal, Partner.]

Need executive and operator, both honest: copacetic is the sticking point.

[hrtshpdbox]

I definitely like a Cruz/Walker ticket.

[Theo]

Isn't Nikki Halley the obvious VP pick no matter who is at the top of the ticket? Doesn't the Republican party pretty much have to have a person of the female persuasion on the ticket?

[henry]

Bass? Trump is more of a piccolo...

[someone]

For the campaign, Carly is a better pick than Nikki.

[Theo]

Well you certainly cannot have Trump and Carly. Two people without any elective office experience would not work so well.

[We got more than three puppet strings, er, rails.]

Note that Cruz depends upon the satellite series, as do I.

A chance to make a big deal of it, because the scientific chicanery is fairly obvious.

It's dangerous dealing with climate, though.

[Threadkiller]

Holy cow, Cruz came to within 2 points of Rubio in Puerto Rico. (36-34).

?

[PDinMiami]

The Memorial and Wake was held today for my Mother-In-Law. Gone far too soon. The wife and I are taking a respite at the hotel and soon to start a Red Wings v Blackhawks game.

Some at the wake were talking about just how great Hillarity! would be as a President and have worked on her campaign the last time around (one had to seek therapy when she lost the nomination to Obama). Many really do not understand the email controversy or just do not care. nor about any of the other issues swirling the Clinton River Drain (far more toxic than the Flint River).

One at least admitted that they had always voted Democrat so they might as well stick with it. Since I have been playing peacekeeper here, I felt no need to correct nor explain just how terrible Hillarity! would be as a President. It is sad that Jewish People just seem to be locked into supporting Democrats and wouldn't change even if they could.

[Rick Ballard]

Jim Miller,

You asked about names for chart formations. If you look at the betting odds chart for the GOP nomination, Trump is currently exhibiting a head and shoulders top. If he were a stock, a chartist would say this would be a good time to go short or start buying puts.

[Marlene]

What!? Maine and Puerto Rico have the same amount of delegates? Rubio got zero in Maine and won all 23 in Puerto Rico?

[Porchlight]

What beer are you drinking? What music are you listening to?

Deschutes Red Chair NWPA and the local classical station which I highly recommend - kmfa.org

[jimmyk]

Isn't Nikki Halley the obvious VP pick no matter who is at the top of the ticket?

No, Kasich is more obvious given the importance of Ohio, especially if the top of the ticket is Cruz. Even if it's Trump, Kasich would be a strong pick. Walker would also be a great choice for either--maybe better except for Ohio being more important than Wisconsin.

[Buckeye]

Kasich has been pretty vocal about NFW on Veep slot.

[Agent J]

Joan @ 3:44pm

Excellent post. I have many thoughts such as yours.

Not a lot of answers.

Marguerite's. Have not had one for years. My love partner and I meet a friend at a "red neck bar" for a drink and conversion. Ken said he sells beer, not mixed drinks, but he would try.

Never have I had a better one, mostly tequalia just a little mix.

Good luck, with you drinks.

[clarice]

Another country heard from:http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/conrad-black-dont-underestimate-donald-he-will-win

[Another Bob]

Seen this Conrad Black column in the Canadian National Post?

LUN

[Jeff Dobbs]

Jane:
Holy cow, Cruz came to within 2 points of Rubio in Puerto Rico. (36-34).

Not sure where you got that, but pretty sure you were misinformed, Jane.

Rubio still way out in front.

[Rick Ballard]

"On Tuesday night, Cruz ran strongly in his home state of Texas but his support is now confined exclusively to Bible-thumping, M16-toting corn-cobbers and woolhats, and he has no traction outside the southwest and perhaps Alaska."

Now there's some fantastic political insight.

Didn't the Bible-thumping, M16-toting corn-cobbers and woolhats in Kansas and Maine realize they were making fools of themselves?

[Another Bob]

Bigotry directed at flyover country. You see it everywhere.

Even here.

[Jane]

Here is the link Hit. I was talking percentages not delegates since it is winner take all.

http://www.weaselzippers.us/260307-open-thread-puerto-rico-primary-results/

[Rick Ballard]

Jane,

Decision Desk has a better grip on actual votes. Rubio is at 71% of the total vote with 71% of precincts in.

[maryrose]

Rick
So true
Any way they can diminish Cruz
Surprisingly he has confounded them and their fair haired boy Rubio has faltered

[Jeff Dobbs]

Jane:
I was talking percentages not delegates since it is winner take all.

You might want to read it again.

It was a poll - not results. And no idea who did the poll because it is wildly inaccurate.

Rubio is over 70% with 80% reporting. Cruz in single digits.

[jimmyk]

Kasich has been pretty vocal about NFW on Veep slot.

Ok, didn't know that, and not sure if it's credible, but there's still Walker. Haley would smack of tokenism, which doesn't help Rs as much as Ds.

[Jane]

OKay. I give up. Sorry.

[Porchlight]

"On Tuesday night, Cruz ran strongly in his home state of Texas

Cruz actually didn't run at all strongly for a R candidate in his home state primary. In fact his margin of victory was a historic low.

http://editions.lib.umn.edu/smartpolitics/2016/03/02/cruz-records-weakest-home-state-gop-primary-victory-in-party-history/

[Porchlight]

Haley is weak sauce. No token women, that just gives Hillary faux legitimacy by comparison which the MSM will eat up.

[narciso]

it's interesting because black wrote his college dissertation on this fellow,

http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/maurice-le-noblet-duplessis/

his experience with washington politics in the form of the fitz, probably soured him on any such national figure,

[narciso]

credentialed idiocy,

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2016/03/04/sorry_mr_trump_the_chinese_arent_crushing_us_102045.html

[maryd]

Porch, I could not agree with you more! Nikki is what we old dweebs used to call a no-op.