Some Heroes Get Their Medals Posthumously

[Data on Cruz Surge at the WaPo].

Leon Wolf at Red State:

Rubio Sacrificed His Campaign to Save America

Marco Rubio’s campaign ended yesterday. He won’t acknowledge it and neither will his hardcore supporters for some days, but he is done. It was one thing when he was running more or less even with Cruz across the South, like he did on Super Tuesday, but Rubio has clearly lost his mojo, finishing behind Kasich in Maine and well behind Cruz in Kentucky and Louisiana. Rubio is running out of gas both metaphorically and physically. This is now a race between Cruz and Trump.

I say this as a guy who a couple weeks ago endorse Rubio as the best chance to beat Trump.

However, if I were Ted Cruz, I would be hoping that Marco Rubio does not drop out yet, at least not until after Thursday [Debate in FLA]. Because the reason that Cruz was able to reach up and stun Donald Trump yesterday is that Rubio has picked apart Trump’s vanity and caused him to self-immolate in a way that no candidate has been able to either before or since. Rubio was able to expose Trump’s business record in a way that Cruz never was.

And I know people are curious about Clean Hands Kasich and his AWOL approach to the battle for the soul of the Republican Party if not the nation. He is looking for some magic:

TRAVERSE CITY, Michigan (CNN) — John Kasich is in need of a little magic on the campaign trail, and on Saturday he conjured up a literary reference when he said he stood with the world’s most famous boy wizard in opposing the “dark side.”

“If I were to just attack Donald Trump now and call him a name, boy it would be just ‘Kasich has resorted to the negative,'” the Ohio governor told reporters here. “I’m with Harry Potter. We’re not going to the dark side.”

Oh, please - Harry Potter fought Voldemort for seven long books and everyone knew exactly what side he was on.

Kasich elaborated on this false dichotomy:

“I have two choices. I can continue to follow the path that I’m on, and give people the vision and the hope, or I can call names. Now, if I don’t call names and I don’t win, I will have won anyway, because that’s what really matters to me: raising the bar in politics, showing that vision counts,” he said.

Gee, I can picture a third choice: a calm statement that out of respect for our Armed Forces and our Constitution, Kasich wants to assure the American people that Trump is utterly out of line with his suggestion (since disavowed and sort of re-avowed) that orders to commit war crimes will be obeyed.

No schoolyard insults necessary.

Whatever. As the Kasich for Vice President bandwagon minivan rolls on above the fray, Fox notes that Kasich was not always so high-minded:

Kasich, however, hasn’t always steered clear of attacking other candidates. In late November, his campaign released an ad effectively comparing Trump to Adolf Hitler and the Nazis.

True but incomplete! The ad they note risked a Godwin's Law violation by citing the classic "When they came for whoever..." poem.

But they omit this ad from back when Kasich had other ideas for a Trump Vice-Presidential pick:

Some of the accompanying text:

Don’t mind the constitutional problems of our candidacy. This campaign will be terrific! Huge! A merger of two great powers!

Note: If member of media, sign up at your own risk.

OK, that was pretty good. And timely even today, given Trump's ruminations about libel law.

THE LION LIES DOWN WITH THE LAMB: Rush Limbaugh and Mitt Romney appearing on Fox News with Chris Wallace. 10 AM Eastern.

So far, Rush is firmly anti-GOPe but wants to sit on the fence about Trump ["More upside than downside" is the pull-quote]. Doesn't see "any traction" for Rubio, who is seen as an establishment pawn. No future "in this cycle". No fence-sitting here.

On to Cruz - likes Cruz on substance, thinks he limited his appeal by focusing on evangelicals, hard-core conservatives. Plenty of integrity!

Thinks a brokered conventions will be chaos but most likely outcome is that Republicans unite against Hillary or whomever as the greater peril.

 

Comments

[_peter]

Good Sunday morning to all my fellow Just One Minute posters! Just finished Clarice's excellent pieces,and did a little surfing of some of James D.'s books on amazon. The coffee is kicking in and I am about to get on the erg and burn some calories. Life is good.

[Theo]

Almost first

[glasater]

Marco Rubio’s campaign ended yesterday

Mickey Kaus cheers :-)

[anonamom]

It's going to be 84 on Sanibel today. Red Sox have a game at 1:00.
Sunny too!

[hrtshpdbox]

I'll agree with Trump for once - Rubio should clearly drop out. He's only an impediment to Cruz's chances at this point.

[henry]

Kasich, relying on other people's money for Ohio Medicaid expansion, now on other people's attack ads for his campaign. As bad as Trump is, Kasich appears a duplicitous jerk even without his "your sacrifice will get me past St Peter" crap.

[new lurker]

henry, Agree with you re Kasich. Yuck.

[glasater]

Mickey Kaus ‏@kausmickey 13h13 hours ago

THE SOFTENING!

@RealDonaldTrump 'changes' on immigration, immediately loses two caucuses. It's a mystery.

Of course Kaus was being sarcastic but I think there's some truth in his tweet.

[Rick Ballard]

glasater,

Trump was just groveling for Ellison's money. Ellison had been banking on Rubio and demanded a public sign of fealty before switching to the next best. Groveling and lying are almost as big a part of the art of the deal as selecting the right parents.

[narciso]

Actually no, he had said as much in the cnbc debate,

[Jeff Dobbs]

Oh. New thread, eh?

So, delegates yesterday...

Cruz
KS 24
KY 15
LA 15
ME 12
Total 66

Trump
KS 9
KY 17
LA 16
ME 9
Total 51

Trump now has 380 total delegates and Cruz has 297 - a difference of 83 delegates.

Rubio only got 13 delegates last night - getting completely shut out of LA and ME - and now has 123 total delegates. Rubio is 257 behind Trump and 174 behind Cruz.

Another way of looking at it - Rubio is more than twice as far behind Cruz as Cruz is behind Trump (83 vs 174), and more than three times as far behind Trump as Cruz is (83 vs 257).

So, votes yesterday...

Cruz
KS 35,207
KY 72,503
LA 113,949
ME 8,550
Total 230,209

Trump
KS 17,062
KY 82,493
LA 124,818
ME 6,070
Total 230,443

Trump got 234 more votes than Cruz overall yesterday, out of 623,090 total votes cast.

Meaning Trump got 36.98% of the votes cast yesterday, and Cruz 36.95%.

I'm still very intrigued on the extent to which the totals may change in KS when all provisional ballots are counted, per Another Bob's on the ground report.

Can't believe I fell asleep right when KY was finishing up and in the middle of the LA results.

KY ended up being a 4 point win for Trump - 36-32. It ended like I figured it would, tightening from the earlier 12 point lead, but not enough to get Cruz across the line.

LA was a pretty big surprise. Trump ended up winning 41-38 - no way I would have predicted a 3 point Trump win. I would have said double digits. Louisiana, seems to have more Texas to it than I was thinking - I was assuming it would be closer to Alabama.

Ok, this comment is going long....a couple more thoughts on KY to come...

...

There are 7 counties in KY that border OH. Obviously, OH is a big state and diverse geographically. But looking at those border states might give some idea on the vote in OH, at least in the southern part...

Cruz won 5 of the borders counties and Trump won 2.

The vote in the border counties was:
Cruz 7136 33%
Trump 6429 30%
Kasich 4679 22%

Again, it would be wrong to try and extrapolate those results to OH overall. But where Cruz has surprised to the upside in a number of states so far - we might see it again in OH.

Of course, OH is winner take all - so unless it could translate to a Cruz win, it doesn't mean that much.

And I would not use these numbers to go anywhere close to saying Cruz has a shot at OH based on them.

And yet...the latest poll was Quinnipiac with Trump 31, Kasich 26, Cruz 21.

A bump from there puts Cruz potentially in the ballpark. I wouldn't bet on it. But it might deserve at least a little bit of attention in the next 10 days.

[Centralcal on iPad]

Just thanked you for this data/info on the prior thread. Repeating here, since you did.

[narciso]

No silvio, with the eternal lawfare is more on point.

[James D.]

Reposting in case the winners don't see it on the prior thread:

Henry and porch, email me at:

jamesd at elevendayempire dot com

with your snail mail address, and let me know which book you'd like (I'll send you both a signed book), and by coin flip, porch also won the t-shirt, so I'll need a t-shirt size from you, too.

[Theo]

Jeff --

Thanks as always for the detailed information.

I do not think that Rubio is quite dead yet. The states coming up later are better for him -- or should be -- than for Cruz. But momentum and perception play a big role and right now Rubio looks weak.

The delegate math looks pretty unchanged. Trump needs to be deprived of both Ohio and Florida. If he wins them both, it becomes hard to stop him. If he wins one but not both, the game is still on. If he wins neither, the road actually gets pretty steep for Trump.

[narciso]

Well b'sstill pining.

[sbw]

Hello, my name is sbw and I can’t stop voting.

Congrats, JamesD, henry, and Porch!

[Captain Hate]

R$ appeals to mainstream Republicans. Lots of people have been crushed as Trump got rich zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. By golly I had to speak up as the voice of conservatism. Gives Cruz some credit for taking advantage of the opening created by the Willard speech.

Wallace tries to nail him for accepting Trump's support four years ago; R$ mentions what he's done since then.

[Theo]

The question is whether Cruz should compete in Ohio and/or Florida? He seems very unlikely to win Florida. Would an active effort there take more votes from Trump or from Rubio? If from Rubio (which is my assumption), the more he does the more he helps Trump win the state, which is not good for Cruz in the long run. Yes, knocking Rubio out of the race would be a plus but it would be a hollow victory if it gave Trump enough delegates.

Ohio is a bit different. Cruz could arguably have a shot to win there. But again, the number one goal should be to deprive Trump of those delegates. Kasich winning Ohio is not near as bad for Cruz as Trump winning it. Not even close. So should he go all out in Ohio or lay back and hope that Kasich can win it? It may depend again on who he thinks he will be taking votes from, but again I assume that he would take more from Kasich than from Trump.

It will be interesting.

[Miss Marple]

How many people did Romney crush? What a jerk.

If he thinks he can waltz in and get the nomination after being such a failure last time, forget it!

I would rather back Huckabee.

[Miss Marple]

Theo,

Thanks. We get it.

[Captain Hate]

Says one of the four running should be the nominee but won't entirely rule out being drafted. If Trumpnis the nominee he'll write in somebody else.

[Rick Ballard]

Jeff,

Green Papers puts it at 391/304 with the Kansas allocation as 24/9/6/1. They have Louisiana split 18/17 with 11 not allocated. After Rubio picks up the Puerto Rico delegates today, the totals will be:

non-Trump 504

Trump 391

[narciso]

I've decided to develop my departed take on the Saudi bomber plot.

[jimmyk]

From CH (I think quoting someone on FNS) on the last thread, I don't really get this: "If there's a brokered convention and the candidate who won the most delegates is ignored, chaos will ensue."

Seems to me if there's a candidate who is the first choice of 40%, but the 4th choice of most of the other 60%; while the second place guy has 35% but is the 2nd choice of a lot of the other 65%, then a brokered convention is likely to give the nod to the 2nd place guy, as it should. That doesn't seem like chaos, but sensible politics.

Now if the brokered convention ends up giving it to the 4th place guy because he's the least scary to Romney and his ilk, that would be a disaster.

Congrats, James D!

[Theo]

To me, the question of the day is why did Trump underperform?

All of the contests yesterday were closed. Limiting the voters to just Republicans does not seem to be good for Trump. Trump did particularly poorly in the two "real" caucus states, so one could say that closed caucuses are particularly bad for him.

Kentucky was technically a caucus, but it really wasn't. There were no speeches and no waiting around to be counted. You could come in, vote and leave. It was more like a primary than a caucus, except (a) there was no early voting and (b) the polls were open for only six hours as opposed to the usual 12 or so. Trump's reasonably narrow victory may be the result of the fact that it was more primary like and less caucus like than KS or ME.

And then there is Louisiana, a true primary, albeit closed. Nate Silver's data shows that Trump had a 25 point lead over Cruz among people who voted before yesterday and that Cruz and Trump had a dead heat among those who voted yesterday.

What explains this? It would appear that something happened on or just prior to election day to drive up the Cruz vote (and to an extent the Kasich vote) and drive down the Trump vote and the Rubio vote.

Maybe that something was Willard's speech. Maybe the anti Trump people ran some great ads late. But the most obvious candidate is the debate.

Whatever it was, the question is whether this is a blip or are the perceptions of Donald and Rafael changing in some lasting way?

Sorry for the long post. Just interesting stuff.

[narciso]

In this case, the Matt Damon character doesn't get what he deserved quite yet.

[Captain Hate]

George Will: peak Trump popularity has probably passed. A two way battle between Trump and Cruz is best for the party. Some Fat RINO Bastard's former coordinator agrees but thinks Trump will win. Julie Pace: donks are no longer regarding Trump as a gift. They honestly don't know how attacking him would work. Trump energizes people like Rodham doesn't. Charles Lane: doesn't think this battle at the top is good for candidates further down. Will says Senate candidates will distance themselves from Trump.

[glasater]

Congrats, JamesD!!

I voted for you as often as I could :-)

Would be happy with a Cruz nomination and have lost any respect for Rubio I may have once had with his juvenile attacks.

[DrJ]

In other news, we had a good gusty El Nino soaking over the past couple of days. I've not seen the totals yet, but I'm sure it is over 3" of rain.

As part of it we lost a 40' Olive tree. It had a surprisingly small root ball, so I'm not surprised it came down.

No major damage, although it appear to have taken out a peach tree. We'll see how things are after our tree guy comes by later in the day.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Rick:
Green Papers puts it at 391/304

Thanks...seems I'm hooked on going to RCP. The Green Papers is a much better, up to date and thorough site......

[Theo]

Five Thirty Eight also has it at 391/304.

[Buckeye]

Best news of the campaign season:

JamesD wins!

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--All of the contests yesterday were closed. Limiting the voters to just Republicans does not seem to be good for Trump.--

What, if anything, does that tell us re Trump or Cruz in the general election?

[Captain Hate]

Lane: Ted Cruz has it right that immunity for Pagliano is bad news for Rodham since he's already taken the fifth before Congress. Pace: White House thinks Rodham has been a train wreck but there's no plan B. Mike Duhaime thinks Trump will benefit from any cloud over Rodham and it will let him move to the center. Will doesn't think Rodham can be dislodged but Bernie will either make her a better candidate or reveal how many people hate her. Duhaime thinks a Trump/Rodham campaign would be extremely negative. A Trump anti establishment theme would work well against Rodham.

And that's a wrap.

[Captain Hate]

jimmyk, it was Rush saying that and I think he meant that a lot of people will be upset if they think the deck was unjustly stacked against their guy.

[narciso]

He was singed up a bit, in the quarter quell.

[Buckeye]

What, if anything, does that tell us re Trump or Cruz in the general election?

The vote that was split amongst the establishment candidates likely totaled the normal R turnout.

The total od the Trump and Cruz vote represents the sentiment of the disaffected that normally wouldn't turn out for a primary.

The establishment IS your grandpa's Buick.

[Jane]

Are you down here Anonamom?

I too saw Romney on MTP. What he said was there was no way he was running. Todd pressed him with the question of if the party nominated him (like they did Sherman?) would he say "no". Is answer was that's not going to happen, but you can't say "no". I conceded he was wrong last night, but let's not cream him. (And I have no idea why I feel the need to defend him.) And Momto2 this is not directed at you, nor was my post last night, so please don't be offended.

Very interesting (and expected that FChuck did not utter a word about Hillary's growing scandal. Apparently it doesn't exist in his world.

[Captain Hate]

The mouthpieces of the elites talking about a revolt against the elites lacks a bit of necessary insight imo.

[Buckeye]

At least he didn't say "let them eat cake". But there is always tomorrow.

[Mike Giles]

Kasich is running to garner enough delegates to hold hostage to trade for the VP nod.

[DebinNC]

Thanks for watching for us, CH

[Centralcal on iPad]

I love Sundays. I always look forward to Clarice's Pieces and Captain Hate's FNS summary. I have to say, CH is usually more entertaining, and Clarice thought provoking.

[jimmyk]

What, if anything, does that tell us re Trump or Cruz in the general election?

Hard to say: If the closed primaries kept out independents who would go for Trump in the general, then the open are a better indicator. If they kept out Dems trying to make mischief, or LIVs who might not even vote in the general, then the closed are better.

[Buckeye]

The chattering class has a bad case of the vapors for what a Trump nomination would mean to the R down ticket candidates.

I haven't heard boo about the implications of an indictment at the top of the D ticket.

[jimmyk]

I think he meant that a lot of people will be upset if they think the deck was unjustly stacked against their guy.

Ok, but that's not intrinsic to brokered conventions. If in the 2nd ballot Rubio told his delegates to vote for Cruz, that wouldn't be "stacking the deck." But no doubt there will be hard feelings no matter who comes out the winner and no matter how transparent and fair the process.

[DebinNC]

The OH and NC primaries aren't open or closed, but "mixed". Does that mean registered Independents/Unaffiliated can vote in either R or D? If so, I expect Dem Is will be monkeying with those primaries, as I doubt Bernie can win either. If I were a savvy Dem-I, I'd try to help Rubio prolong our agony.

[narciso]

Well they f Chuck brooksie and one other, a full chimp circle on 'meet the fepressed'

[hrtshpdbox]

If I were a savvy Dem-I, I'd try to help Rubio prolong our agony.

I think most Dems would prefer that Hillary or Bernie face Trump.

[glasater]

If I were a savvy Dem-I, I'd try to help Rubio prolong our agony

Heh, Deb..

You're giving progs too much credit for intelligence.

[Truthbetold]

DOES DONALD TRUMP STAND FOR ANYTHING?

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/03/does-donald-trump-stand-for-anything.php

[Centralcal on iPad]

RIP Nancy Reagan

[Buckeye]

DebinNc, in Ohio you can change affiliation, but as I recall has to be at least a month before primary. Not sure about Independents voting privledges.

[hrtshpdbox]

A strong and dignified First Lady, and always in Ronnie's corner.

[Centralcal on iPad]

TMZ reporting Nancy Reagan has died at age 94.

[Buckeye]

DOES DONALD TRUMP STAND FOR ANYTHING?

Speak loudly and carry a big stick in your little hands.

[Jane]

Wow, I didn't think Nancy Reagan would ever die. RIP

[hrtshpdbox]

Speak loudly and carry a big stick in your little hands.

Oh my goodness, I need this bumper sticker.

[DrJ]

WSJ:

Peyton Manning to Retire After 18 Seasons in NFL

Peyton Manning plans to retire, foregoing $19 million and a 19th season in the National Football League where he earned an unprecedented five MVP awards and set dozens of passing records.

[Threadkiller]

RIP Nancy Reagan.

Obama will be inserting himself into this, so I will avoid all TV today.

[clarice]

Nancy Reagan died--she was 94.

[boris]

"Dems would prefer that Hillary or Bernie face Trump"

Of course they would prefer the East coast billionaire who cons East coast liberals on a regular basis. They just luv that stuff.

[JM Hanes]

Theo:

"The question is whether Cruz should compete in Ohio and/or Florida?...."

Alas, I find it as depressing as interesting. I really hate the whole primary "system" if it even merits the name. I'm sick of Iowa and New Hampshire, and of the untold inequities that arise from the grab bag of caucuses and open/closed primaries as well as the sequencing.

Oddly enough, the Trump numbers remind me of the Romney campaign. Romney got a pretty consistent third of the vote, while the anti-Romney folks careened wildly from one not-Romney to the next till there was no one else left standing. This time however, the anti-Trump intensity dwarfs the anti-Romney fervor, and it seems to me that there's at least some ideological consistency to the support the other candidates are getting.

I'm not sure everyone's on the same page when it comes to what a "brokered convention" actually represents. Attempting to insert a deus ex machina nominee would certainly be intolerable, but it seems to me making sure that we've got a nominee who can break the 50% mark at the convention is important (not to mention required for the win). It's sort of ironic to see the folks who have been touting negotiating skilz as the sine qua non of candidate attributes up in arms about it.

[Miss Marple]

I will be interested in whether Nancy's passing makes Americans remember that era with fondness.

I hope so.

[Miss Marple]

JM Hanes,

I don't think I would be upset if people negotiated and the candidates agreed on the outcomoe.

I will NOT be happy if they try to foist Ryan or Romney on us. Those guys haven't been out campaigning and putting themselves in front of the votes.

And John Kasich thinking he can lose almost everywhere but become the nominee on the second ballot is simply insulting.

[clarice]

JMH, I'm quite sure that most of those opposed to a "brokered convention" are really opposing a coronation of a party to be named at a later date--not an alignment among top runners

[Centralcal on iPad]

Well said, JMH.

As a former anti-Romney commenter back in the day, I agree with your current analysis.

[Rick Ballard]

Jeff,

I really appreciate your work on presenting detailed observations a great deal. I only noted the Green Papers because the site presents the most complete presentation of the primaries in a simple format that I have found to date.

[_peter]

Sad to learn of Nancy Reagan's passing, but somehow hearing it from my friends here makes it a little easier. Watch the lame stream media smear her even in death emphasizing her horoscope hobby and other crap. Rest in peace Nancy, and pray for us now that you are reunited with Ronaldus.

[Old Lurker]

Buckeye "The chattering class has a bad case of the vapors for what a Trump nomination would mean to the R down ticket candidates."

But how does that work when we hear that R turnouts for the primaries is so much higher than normal, and the D's lower than normal?

Sounds like more GOPe BS to me.

[hrtshpdbox]

Of course they would prefer the East coast billionaire who cons East coast liberals on a regular basis. They just luv that stuff.

So, to restate it:
I think most Dems would prefer that Hillary or Bernie face Trump, because then the landslide is on, wheeee!.

[DebinNC]

DebinNc, in Ohio you can change affiliation, but as I recall has to be at least a month before primary. Not sure about Independents voting privledges.

Thanks, Buckeye. In NC I was registered Unaffiliated, like iirc Jeff is, and I could have voted in the Dem primary, but of course my superior moral sensibilities didn't allow it. Or, come to think of it, I believe I was just too chicken.

[Old Lurker]

Now if they really do want to chill the entire ticket top to bottom, just put Romney at the top of it, seems to me.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

I think this is supposed to be a compliment;
Is Ted Cruz Nixon’s Long-Lost Son?

[narciso]

Rip nancy Reagan.

Yes it's curious how mittens slash and burn to the nomination and his subsequent basengi act is not noted, an oversight I guess.

[hrtshpdbox]

Sounds like more GOPe BS to me.

Trump gets well less than half the vote in the primaries, ergo a big chunk of those new voters are showing up to vote against him.

[narciso]

Narrative it is a thing isn't it, the whole vapors over the china, and the sludge that mo dowd passed to get her Carlos slim perch.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

-- It's sort of ironic to see the folks who have been touting negotiating skilz as the sine qua non of candidate attributes up in arms about it.--

There is no irony because their concern, and I consider it a legitimate one, is that the party establishment will be engaged in icing Trump out of any negotiations; that would be the entire point of the exercise.

[narciso]

Quick Kim barber's Afghan journal reminded of.

[jimmyk]

If the GOPe really hates Cruz they should start touting him as their choice. That seems to be the kiss of death in this campaign. Maybe that's Miss Lindsey's strategy.

[Old Lurker]

But the question is why assume that all non Trump R voters will vote for Clinton or not vote at all or vote straight D on downticket names?

Still sounds awfully convenient as a GOPe line to me.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Trump gets well less than half the vote in the primaries, ergo a big chunk of those new voters are showing up to vote against him.--

The witness is being unresponsive.
The GOPe BS he referred to was that Trump would hurt down ticket candidates.
Whether Reps show up for or against Trump they will certainly overwhelmingly vote for down ticket Reps.

[Centralcal on iPad]

OL, thanks for posing this question:

"But how does that work when we hear that R turnouts for the primaries is so much higher than normal, and the D's lower than normal?"

I think this is getting overlooked in the candidate rooting sections.

[Old Lurker]

Thanks Iggy.

[narciso]

They still resent him at powerline, trump is more like Nixon tactically.

[Neo]

Rep. Joaquin Castro, the twin brother of HUD secretary Julian Castro, proves he is dumber than a pile of rocks, when he claimed this morning on CNN that Hillary Clinton had been cleared by the Justice Department on the email scandal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZwmJfViiA8

[Jeff Dobbs]

JMH:
It's sort of ironic to see the folks who have been touting negotiating skilz as the sine qua non of candidate attributes up in arms about it.

Good post.

One thing that no one knows at this point.........how exactly will delegates be chosen and who they will be. That is - the actual real-life people who will be at the convention as the repesentative of the candidate who won their state (or congressional district, or that proportion of the state, etc).

It's a convoluted process with very inside-baseball machinations that favors insiders and the most well organized.

There will have to be lots and lots and lots and lots of maneuvering by candidates and their campaigns to try to ensure that the delegates selected are actual supporters who won't just wilt at the first sign of brokered madness.

And there will undoubtedly be attempts for one candidate to get his supporters quietly to be delegates - representing another candidate who won. That delegate is bound to the candidate he represents . . . on the first ballot only.

As an example...if schemed right, Trump might be represented by delegates who would really rather vote for Cruz. They would vote for Trump on the first ballot - but if given the chance on a second ballot at the convention....bail on Trump for Cruz.

Ok, I didn't mean to cause anyone's hair to light on fire with that.....but....Dun dun dun......

[hrtshpdbox]

Whether Reps show up for or against Trump they will certainly overwhelmingly vote for down ticket Reps.

I see, sorry, and that's certainly true - if anything, R's who leave the top lever un-pulled will have even more reason than usual to vote straight-R the rest of the way. Hard to quantify how many R's won't show up at all...

[Miss Marple]

I don't have any good feel for who will get what votes. A fair number of Trump supporters are blu collar democrats, so they won't show up in GOP only primaries and caucuses.

Also unfactored are how many disaffected Sanders democrats might vote for Trump if he says a few things that hit their hot-button issues, like student loans.

Those Sanders people may stay home, too, one the full super delegate ramifications become apparent.

If Cruz is the nominee, how many of those voters mentioned above will vote GOP? How many GOPe would stay home or only vote down ticket?

I don't think we can really know much about the potential effects of any nominee. There are too many variables, too much unknown.

Except Romney. With him as the nominee the GOP would lose Trump supporters, a fair number of Cruz supporters, blue collar votes, disaffected Sanders supporters, and we have ALL seen how this worked out once before.

So, GOPe, by all means push Romney on us. It goes with every other stupid thing you've done since 1988.

[JM Hanes]

The idea that another (non)candidate will swoop in to steal the nomination at the last minute strikes me as Vast Establishment Conspiracy territory. It's like the outrage du jour which keeps the anti-GOPe adrenalin pumping.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Let's see; compelling lenders to lend to people with poor credit contributed to the housing and financial crash.
How can we prevent another one?
Hmmm....
Wait! We'll set up a consumer credit agency to protect the pitiful citizenry and have it strong arm lenders to lend to people with poor credit on auto loans.
What could go right?

[Jeff Dobbs]

jimmyk:
If the GOPe really hates Cruz they should start touting him as their choice. That seems to be the kiss of death in this campaign. Maybe that's Miss Lindsey's strategy.

But we saw that, even if briefly, with Trump several weeks ago.

"GOP insiders say they prefer Trump to Cruz because they think they can 'work with' a President Trump who would be more likely to make deals."

That didn't work, so it became Roll Out Romney time.

[boris]

When Noot raised the Bian issue against Romney I do recall there was some vituperation against poor ol' Noot.

Imagine if the anti-Romney people were actually #NeverRomney and they got Dick Cheney to give speeches and go on Sunday shows to disparage Romney and RomneyCare and call him a bully and other names.

Then Romney limps to the nomination and loses to Obama. We know Romney was going to lose anyway but #NeverRomney and Cheney would certainly be blamed for it.

They could say, "we tried to save you from Obama but you didn't listen to us and now look what happened".

I get that some believe Romney was a "good" or at least "okay" multi-millionaire while Trump is an "evil" billionaire. But it's still going to be ugly and no matter what happens Hillary stands to benefit.

[Miss Marple]

JM Hanes,

Are you willfully ignoring the following?

1. Romney's nasty speech
2. His meeting in Salt Lake City with Paul Ryan
3. The establishment of a Paul Ryan Super PAC.
4. Romney saying that one cannot decline the honor if drafted.

Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean someone isn't out to get you.

[hrtshpdbox]

If Cruz is the nominee, how many of those voters mentioned above will vote GOP? How many GOPe would stay home or only vote down ticket?

I was for Jeb, and dislike Trump very much, so I must be a GOPe. Whatever that is, because I really don't know. I like Cruz just fine, my only hesitation with him at the outset was that I thought someone like Jeb would do better in the general. Cruz is an intelligent conservative who seems principled enough, he's my guy now (I hope that's not the kiss of death,, I've been pretty good at picking losers lately).

[Buckeye]

Trump gets well less than half the vote in the primaries, ergo a big chunk of those new voters are showing up to vote against him.

2/3 are showing up and voting for an anti-establishment candidate. I don't think many of them will be any more excited about Mitt (or another GOPe player) than those that have been on the ticket.

If you also think that Trump's appeal is less "rational" and more emotional, I think we can expect an "irrational" response if his supporters think he is getting screwed at the convention.

As I have already said, I expect it would be very ugly and make 1968 look like a walk in the park.

[JM Hanes]

Miss Marple:

"Are you willfully ignoring the following?"

Yes.

[hrtshpdbox]

I think we can expect an "irrational" response if his supporters think he is getting screwed at the convention.

I haven't been following, what constitutes getting screwed at the convention? If DT shows up with less than a majority of delegates, every ballot after the first is open season and everything is fair play. Tell me how the evil GOPe wants to deny DT unfairly?

[boris]

Buckeye: "I think we can expect an "irrational" response if his supporters think he is getting screwed at the convention"

HSB: "what constitutes getting screwed at the convention?"

For Trump's irrational supporters (apparently all of them are irrational), anybody but Trump winning.