Super Tuesday Kickoff

I had my Super Tuesday picks somewhere. Let's see, lots of winning for "Mad Max: Fury Road"; "The Revenant" will do well in Texas... wait, what?

Best song nominees include "Goodbye, Rubio Tuesday". But give that a few weeks - it is not this day.

Time will surely tell.

 

Comments

[henry]

jesse ventura wins all as Bernie berns out

[glasater]

GOPe may get a wakeup call today pinning their hopes and dreams and dollar on mighty mite Rubio.

[Buford Gooch]

Cruz wins Texas, maybe one other state, Rubio wins nothing, Cruz finishes a distant second behind Trump overall.

[Appalled]

Prediction -- I won't like the outcome, and will find a ledge of my own on wish to sulk.

[narciso]

re the last thread, there's a reason I dubbed schmidt dr evil, because they chose to purposely scuttle the campaign, and then blame the huntress
for it, through false leaks, all according to the jones memo, that took till the last cycle to unearth,

[Threadkiller]

I think birthers will do well today.

[DebinNC]

Rubio will do better today than he should imo, because so many early voted before last Thursday's debate where Rubio's inner terrible tot emerged and ran wild.

[jimmyk]

Question is, if Trump continues to get 35-40% of the primary votes, does he end up with more than 50% of the delegates? If not, anything can happen at the convention, if yes, then this is probably over (since it seems that he will continue to get a plurality in the primaries).

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

You too good for us?

[new lurker]

Rubio wins no state and is declared the winner and the one most likely to defeat Hillary! This will come via the GOPe.

[Buckeye]

Appalled

The Ledge is a "big tent".

[James D]

Reposting the book poll - a vote we can all gt behind!

http://www.easypolls.net/poll.html?p=56d261bae4b01668ec061dbf

[Jeff Dobbs]

Wait. It's Tuesday?

Rubio promised to pay me today for a hamburger I gave him earlier.

[Old Lurker]

Appalled "and will find a ledge of my own on which to sulk"

No need for that, Appalled, we have quiet rooms on our Ledge and until you are ready for company, the Bartender can send drinks to the room at Cocktail Hour.

We have room for Hrtshpdbox too.

Whatever our differences are here at JOM (a**holes excepted), I suspect we will all line up at the diving boards on the same day.

[Rick Ballard]

"Question is, if Trump continues"

Answer

jimmyk,

That site is worth a bookmark for the next month or so if you want to follow actual delegate scenarios. The Green Papers is even better wrt schedule, types of primaries and rules for delegate allocation.

[DebinNC]

WaPo on likelihood of the birth-defects causing Zika virus coming here via Puerto Ricans. Waves of Puerto Ricans fleeing here through the spring and summer would add fuel to Trump's call to protect America from harmful invaders.

[Porchlight]

Reposting from last thread:

As I said yesterday, it's not just a matter of insulting the Trump voters, it's conservatives writing off Trump himself, which means that he has nothing to gain from trying to win them over. Doesn't it make more sense for conservatives to say to Trump: "We'll come around to you if you promise A, B, and C" than to say "We're not voting for you no matter what"? If the latter, then Trump is likely to promise C, D, and E to those contemplating a vote for Hillary/Bernie, and tell conservatives to go f*** themselves.

Posted by: jimmyk | March 01, 2016 at 11:27 AM

A thousand times yes. But some conservatives will enjoy being told that, so they can continue to pat themselves on the back for their vaulted moral stance.

[Porchlight]

Cruz wins Texas, maybe one other state, Rubio wins nothing, Cruz finishes a distant second behind Trump overall.

Agree with Buford Gooch.

[glasater]

Reading material for OL's ledge..

70 Tips That Will Help You Survive What Is About To Happen To America

[hrtshpdbox]

... if Trump continues to get 35-40% of the primary votes, does he end up with more than 50% of the delegates?

If Rubio and Cruz are roughly at parity, then sure he does - there's plenty of winner-take-all contests.

[Miss Marple]

I had an old friend on Free Republic who taught me a lot about politic. His screen name was Common Tator, and he was a long-time political guy from Ohio. Some of you might have run across him.

He explained it this way: If a candidate or elected official cannot count on your vote, he will go to those whose vote he CAN count on.

What this means is that Trump wants to win and he needs votes. If a large number of conservatives are going to sit home and refuse to participate, he cannot count on you. So he will move to where the votes are. This might include the black community, union workers, blue collar, etc.

The end result will be either a candidate who wins and owes more to those groups than conservatives, or a weakened candidate who loses and we get Hillary.

Either way, the result of conservatives bolting will be more leftism, either a little or a lot.

This is why I do not understand why conservatives have refused to throw in with trump and win with influence. Seems like many have chosen to have no influence, and possibly no win.

[Porchlight]

Overheard at the post office this morning in the People's Republic of Austin (paraphrased):

"My friend works for Telemundo and he says that the Republican early vote is way up and the Democrat early vote is way down, so I was glad to see the long lines to get Dem ballots at the polls today."

Doesn't early voting traditionally favor Dems?

[hrtshpdbox]

a vote we can all gt behind!

I voted, not for the first time (I'm a stealth voter).

[narciso]

yes, but the democratic vote is more selective, like camelbert and the soon to depart melissa harris perry,

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

I can understand not throwing in with him.
I can't understand throwing in with #neverTrump.
Never Trump = Always Hillary.

If you think the base and the rank and file are pissed off now, if the clean toga crowd delivers us unto Hillugula and the games at the Coliseum, because Trump is entirely too distasteful, the whirlwind that is reaped will be biblical in proportion.

[Miss Marple]

Buzzfeed's on the job!

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/donald-trump-first-encountered-overalls-in-2005?utm_term=.mxN1ePjLl#.mg3VQwW6n

[narciso]

who will be in the pens under the coliseum though

http://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2016/feb/26/iran-zibakalam-grand-reformists-coalistion-includes-intelligence-ministers

the rest of the story, that the media deigns not to tell us,

[narciso]

I guess it's like picking kruschev over brezhnev's politburo,

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/iran-elects-hardline-officials-accused-of-murder/

[James D]

Thanks, hrt!

It's good to know there's something wel can all agree on!

I've started working on the next book in the new series. As a thank-you, if anyone would like a background character named after them, I'd be happy to oblige. You could be a neighbor of my heroine in her Upper West Side rent-controlled illegal sublet apartment.

This time out, archaeology studnet Jane is going to have to try and get her father remarried, try and stop a college friend from marriny a con man, oh, and also solve the puzzle of what exactly happened to a truckload of priceless art that was looted by the Nazis in WW2, recovered by British commandos near the end of the war, and subsequently lost for the next 50 years.

[James D]

"student"
"marrying"

I is a writer, after all.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

You can work Ignatz Ratzkywatzky into your storyline?

[Jeff Dobbs]

Newt Gingrich ‏@newtgingrich 14m14 minutes ago
Making surprise appearance at candidate event in few mins. find out who by following me on @snapchat newtgingrich94

Gee, that's a tough one to figure out...

[Buford Gooch]

I've posted Ignatz' 12:00 to Facebook. Excellent points.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Wait, what!?!!?

Mallory Shelbourne ‏@MalShelbourne 19m19 minutes ago Arlington, VA
Newt Gingrich just arrived at the Kasich town hall in Arlington

[rse]

Porch-I was driving around at rush hour yesterday and decided to listen to erickson, which is rare. He was insisting that he would not support trump and that it would be the voters fault if trump was the nominee. They would be the ones who foisted a nominee on him he could not support. These are the same clowns who designed the primary process to foist jeb on the voters regardless of what they wanted. Yet when things do not work as they schemed they feel entitled to push for a corrupt hillary as CiC.

Who on earth do these so-called pundits think will want to listen to them and hear their opinion when this is over?

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Why can't the US do this?
China to hand six million state workers pink slips.

[James D]

Ig @ 12:13

OK, that might take a little finessing :)

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--They would be the ones who foisted a nominee on him he could not support.--

Welcome to the party, pal, as narc might say.

[Marlene]

This morning a Sarasota County sheriff pulled over a car down the street from us as we left to do errands. Or so we thought,because the sheriff ran into a small building at the end f the street which is a daycare center. Oh no was our first thought. Ambulances and other LE came screaming down the street. A TV helicopter was hovering over the scene. Well, a grandmother dropping a child at the daycare crashed into the building and the force knocked down a concrete wall. Three children were injured. The grandmother was interviewed by the news and she has no idea how it happened. Granny shouldn't be driving!

[Marlene]

*of*

[jimmyk]

Why can't the US do this?

You mean as in "You're fired!" Seems like the current R front runner is just the guy we need. :)

[James D]

One thing, in re-reading the Lileks screed linked on the last thread:

He's a racist, a nativist, an economic nationalist, a threat to the First Amendment and our industry

I don't think Trump is a racist. But leave that aside.

What exactly is wrong about being a nativist or an economic nationalist?

The dictionary definition of nativist is: "a policy of favoring native inhabitants as opposed to immigrants." I don't see any problem at all with that.

Isn't that in the job description, actually?

[derwill]

So who are all these people who have been voting for Trump and who will likely vote for him today? (This is not a facetious question) The GOP assures us that it is not "we true conservatives, my dear." The MFM assures us that "it is only those horrible wing-nuts, and certainly not you, you wise moderates who'll be voting Hillary come November." So there must be an awful lot of not-true-conservative horrible wing-nuts in the country that have never voted before, but are voting now.

Or maybe there really is a soft revolution happening, which is bringing about a party re-alignment, and nobody has a clue how that is happening, the voting make-up of that realignment, how large it is, or least of all what it portends.

[Porchlight]

Who on earth do these so-called pundits think will want to listen to them and hear their opinion when this is over?

Nobody, rse. Erick Erickson was already worthless.

[Porchlight]

Trump at his Radford, Virginia rally yesterday:

"I'm only gonna say this once. All - Lives - Matter."

This is a racist dog whistle, people. Sincerely, your betters in the GOP.

[Threadkiller]

Isn't that in the job description, actually?

Article 2, Section 1, Clause 5

[narciso]

a certain perspective,

http://www.dailypundit.com/?p=117452

[narciso]

now mind you, the letter writer in the financial times is full of category error, the sports writers as well, big shocker there,

[Threadkiller]

http://www.newsradioklbj.com/news/austin-local-news/long-lines-and-computer-snafus-marking-super-tuesday

Hmmmmm

[jimmyk]

What exactly is wrong about being a nativist or an economic nationalist?

"Nativist" suggests being anti-immigration as opposed to anti-illegal immigration, and "economic nationalist" suggests protectionist. Not saying those are correct inferences, but that's how the terms get used.

[Stephanie]

EE is a drama queen. Nuff said about him.

I voted and the line was not long but was continuously replenishing in and out in about 10 minutes. More poll workers than usual, too. It is out of my hands now.

[sbw]

James D. “Iggy” is easier to weave in than the full moniker.

“Just ask Iggy.”
- “Iggy?”
“Yeah, Iggy. You don’t want to know his full name.”

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Interesting thoughts on what kind of president Trump would be and the constraints this budding Ersnt Rohm would face.

[jimmyk]

If we end up with a brokered convention, I'm all in on the David Clarke/Clay Higgins ticket.

[rse]

Steph-did you know Ga now purges anyone who has not voted in two consecutive general elections?

[Captain Hate]

Fat Boy Erickson must be trying to dislodge Lupica as Costanza's favorite author.

[narciso]

top men, are the same around the world,

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/12179375/Minister-hints-at-pensions-tax-raid-on-middle-class-savers.html

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Further thoughts on Trump from the same guy.
Quite a few interesting pieces there.

[Threadkiller]

Speaking of prostitutes: On Sunday, Alabama senator Jeff Sessions offered Trump his own endorsement. 

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/432109/chris-christie-donald-trump-endorsement-republican-party-establishment-corruption

This year's cruise may be the best.

[derwill]

The worst thing that can happen to Eric Erickson and his ilk is for the world to discover that it isn't so much that they've lost the power to influence the un-protected class, but that they never had nearly the power that they, and the protected class, thought they did in the first place.

[Jeff Dobbs]

Hey, sbw...ever since my unemployment seven years ago, I've gotten regular emails from job search sites. I still read them from time to time just to see what's out there. In the email that came today, there is a perfect job for me that just came open in New Hartford, NY. Can you imagine?

Well, mrs hit and run would probably divorce me if I told her we were moving to Utica, so.....

[Jeff Dobbs]

There. I mixed up Utica and New Hartford.

I really meant to mention Whitesboro and their town seal.

[Appalled]

You can work Ignatz Ratzkywatzky into your storyline?

Preston Sturges managed it.

[Dave (in MA)]

Howie Carr

.

[Stephanie]

Yes, rse and I think it is is a good thing. I verified while I was voting that the dearly departed MIL has been purged from the rolls here locally. Georgia seems to be doing a pretty decent job of cleaning up the voter rolls.

[lyle]

E.P.Foley at Insty links this from Ingraham:

http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/the-suicide-of-the-gop-establishment/

[Threadkiller]

Bait and switch. This is exactly what many are worried about in this election.

http://m.therightscoop.com/uh-oh-n-y-appeals-court-revives-fraud-claim-against-trump-university/

What is the "bait?" As far as I can tell it is comprised of border control, better economy, stronger military, Obama has ruined the American dream, Hillary is a crook, end Common Core, and such. Seemingly conservative positions.

That would define "switch" as the charlatan we were warned of.

McCain was reelected saying "build the damn fence," so I guess some of this is plain old politics.

The real story is that the GOPe either had no idea how successful that "bait" can be, or they had no desire to ever obligate themselves to the desires of a great many conservatives.

Like the caller to Rush said awhile ago, they have always know about the intensity of anger, that is why they call us kooks. What they are caught off guard with is the breadth of the anger.

[Captain Hate]

This year's cruise may be the best.

Towel folders go wild.

[Appalled]

In the interests of equal time, I introduce this link. And come to the conclusion that Miss Marple and Laura Ingraham have done a vulcan mind meld:

http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/the-suicide-of-the-gop-establishment/

[Threadkiller]

...known...

[Rick Ballard]

"So who are all these people who have been voting for Trump and who will likely vote for him today?"

Derwill,

TM, among others, has suggested this Rand survey as a must read for understanding the current electorate. The survey is very well done and the current 47/43 preference for Clinton tracks well with the RCP average.

Among people likely to vote in the Republican primary, people are 86.5 percent more likely to prefer Donald Trump as the first-choice nominee relative to all the others if they “somewhat” or “strongly agree” that “people like me don't have any say about what the government does.” Using statistical techniques, we can conclude that this increased preference for Trump is over and beyond any preferences based on respondent gender, age, race/ethnicity, employment status, educational attainment, household income, attitudes towards Muslims, attitudes towards illegal immigrants, or attitudes towards Hispanics.

The role of “people like me don't have any say…” is not significantly related to preference for Cruz, Rubio, Clinton, or Sanders as the first choice for party nominee (where Clinton and Sanders are rated by likely Democratic primary voters). (See Figure 6.)

[Spock]

Lyle and Appaled have melded as well.

[Miss Marple]

"He's a racist, a nativist, an economic nationalist, a threat to the First Amendment and our industry"

Exactly what industry would this be?

The "getting paid for telling rubes how to think" industry?

The "wielding influence within the GOP for profit" industry?

The "getting the grass roots marks to buy my pod casts and books" industry?

The "getting people to pay to talk to me on a cruise" industry?

I always liked Lileks' site and even bought two of his books, "The Gallery of Regrettable Food" and "Interior Desecration."

However, I find his political analysis not much better than mine, and I thought this paragraph I quoted above was a tell.

[Threadkiller]

They called Sessions a prostitute, CH.

True colors.

[Captain Hate]

I think it's pretty funny that since at least since Reagan every GOP candidate is required to denounce David Duke while not a peep to the commiecrats about Sheets Byrd. Kind of disappointing that Trump didn't point this out along with mentioning how Slick praised the ol' Grand Wizard/Cyclops/Whatever when they planted him.

[rse]

Yes, but they had purged me for being lawful and sticking to voting in one state all those years.

I was so looking forward to cancelling out hubby and the diva. My bil actually believes his wife should share his political choices. Yuck.

[Threadkiller]

Dave, that pic may have ruined Super Tuesday for me.

[Rick Ballard]

Good news for Schneiderman in New York

Don't worry about not recognizing the name today. You will when testimony begins.

[lyle]

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/27/37-of-us-gov-assets-are-student-loans/

So we've got THAT going for us...

[Captain Hate]

Levin praised Sessions last night while admitting that the endorsement confuses him. Btw Fat RINO Bastard burnished his political DOA future by calling for a prompt Senate vote on whoever 404 nominates for the Supreme Court.

[narciso]

And Fulbright, razorback's mentor was a klan tool in a nicer suit, like sam ervin, lurch's father worked for walter george, who was his predecessor at the foreign relations committee,

[Stephanie]

Dang, rse. Hope you have rectified that for the general.

[Dave (in MA)]

I took "our industry" to refer to newspapers, perhaps referring to this.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Except for Cruz, many Republicans do not seem rational, even though they are the ones who try to brand anyone who differs the irrational, emotional bunch.

The electorate is telling them things are broken and no longer work, and between Cruz and Trump, a majority are saying "we will not listen to you, because even though things are broken, you want to keep doing the same damn thing."

In reply the GOPe and the conventional gatekeepers say "You're idiots. Sure things aren't great and our last few guys have been useless and the left is advancing but trust us. Let's just keep doing what doesn't work a little longer and magically it will start working."

That is not a rational response. It is, since Nazi metaphors seem to now be perfectly ok with the guys who always preach civility, similar to the Nazi generals who followed Hitler's insane and idiotic plans without comment. Its inevitable end is defeat on the battlefield and holing up in a bunker.

The critics of business as usual and followers of Trump and Cruz are right in their criticisms, if not always their solutions, and therefore cannot be denied forever. A rational response from the GOPe would have been to co-opt and absorb that rising sentiment. Conservatives and Republicans who do not get ahead of the wave of anger and coming realignment are the ones who risk besmirching the Republican "brand" by sticking to a business as usual that is putting the rest of us out of business.

People are so sick of being betrayed and bought and sold by our elite betters they'll risk everything on some goofball like Trump or a hardass like Cruz.

Instead of reflexively striking out at people intent on divorcing themselves from the GOPe, maybe the morons might consider, just for one moment, looking in the mirror and considering what a pack of rat bastards they have to be in order to make Trump and Cruz, who they despise beyond words, more attractive to a majority of their voters than they are.

But then again Dorian Grey kept his portrait locked away for a reason.

[GUS]

Eric Erickson and other self appointed "conservative leaders" are a joke.
If given a choice between Rodham and Trump, it's not hard to choose.
But Eric wants to be a BIG SHOT. He's not.

[Dave (in MA)]

Threadkiller | March 01, 2016 at 01:04 PM, I wonder if there was any exchange of Exalted Cyclops fluids.

[Porchlight]

derwill,

This January Economist/YouGov poll of 2000 "general population" respondents is the one that Vox, NYT and others were citing as showing that 20% of Trump supporters disapproved of the Emancipation Proclamation when it was described as one executive action in a long line of decidedly less savory executive actions.

(However, there are no crosstabs in the linked pdf, so I don't know where that 20% figure comes from.)

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ctucuikdsj/econToplines.pdf

In the poll, Trump's favorables (asked of all respondents) are:

Very favorable 24%
Somewhat favorable 16%
Somewhat unfavorable 8%
Very unfavorable 46%
Don't know 5%

Hillary's favorables (asked of all respondents) are:

Very favorable 19%
Somewhat favorable 19%
Somewhat unfavorable 12%
Very unfavorable 44%
Don't know 6%

And the self-reported party ID of all respondents:

Dem 39%
Lean Dem 9%
Independent 25%
Lean Rep 7%
Rep 27%

Interesting, no?

[-peter]

Can't keep up too many posts but my $.02: Power Line blog nails it: Trump analogous to Schwarzenegger

[Porchlight]

It seems to me that in terms of endorsements, a "prostitute" sells out his/her principles to support a given candidate.

Jeff Sessions explained that he supports Trump because Trump shares his long-held positions on immigration and trade and he believes those issues to be so vital that they cannot be compromised.

Those positions happen to be the exact opposite of the establishment's positions on immigration and trade.

But Sessions is an establishment whore, according to the anti-Trump folks.

[Captain Hate]

Iggy, this is the GOPe learning things the hard way that we warned them about. The choice was always there for them.

[derwill]

Ig at 1:08 nailed it. And that Laura Ingram link was also spot on.

[Threadkiller]

Nobody at PowerLine lived in California, I guess.

Arnold was a GOPe push.

Trump's "bait" is closer to a McClintock analogy.

We have to wait for the "switch" to compare him to the GOPe's fav.

[narciso]

well somewhere in the middle, more like Nixon who picked up too many bad habits in the big apple, but learned to triangulated, hammering down the thurmond endorsement, to hold the right flank,

[GUS]

10-4 Capn. The Gopeepee has itself to blame. I personally believe crapping on the T-party was their biggest mistake, but of course $ELF PRE$ERVATION was always the PeePee's goal.

[Porchlight]

Looks like a post-Tuesday dropout signal from the Carson camp:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/carson-camp-we-clearly-dont-know-our-path-to-nomination/article/2584596

That presumably helps Cruz, but not in time. Payback is a bitch.

[jimmyk]

I only ask because normally Iggy says exactly what I'm thinking, only better and more clearly. I didn't follow this at 1:08:

Except for Cruz, many Republicans do not seem rational, even though they are the ones who try to brand anyone who differs the irrational, emotional bunch.

The electorate is telling them things are broken and no longer work, and between Cruz and Trump, a majority are saying "we will not listen to you, because even though things are broken, you want to keep doing the same damn thing."

Who is the "them" and "you" in the 2nd paragraph? I guess this makes sense if "them" and "you" refers to the GOPe, and "between" means "by voting for"? Do I have that right?

[Porchlight]

Ah - USA Today has the Economist/YouGov crosstabs:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/02/25/donald-trump-supporters-racist-poll-yougov-economist-column/80944446/

And, would you look at that - "29% of African-Americans aren't sure the Emancipation Proclamation was a good idea, and 40% of Hispanics agree."

[NK]

Trump's bait is nativist/strong borders. Perhaps. What happens when there is the invariable Trump switcheroo.

[sbw]

Jeff: there is a perfect job for me that just came open in New Hartford

Given a choice, I can understand why your spouse might prefer the NC weather. But should you interview, we would be happy to show you around.

I haven’t the experience to recommend pool halls. Most of the people I know at such places are most adept using the other end of the cue.

[lyle]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/mar/1/border-chief-chides-agents-object-obama-amnesty/

Yeah, it's really a wonder how Trump is leading:

Top border chief to agents who object to Obama amnesty: ‘Look for another job’