Supreme Drama

Obama will announce his Supreme Court nominee (per the AP, Merrick Garland) at 11AM.

The timing is shrewd coming the day after Trump's primary victories more or less assured a Trump candidacy and/or a hideously divided Republican Party.

So - do Republican Senators figure that Garland is an older and more centrist lefty than they are likely to see from President Hillary and roll over in favor of the lesser evil?

Or, as another reason to surrender now, do Senate Republicans fear that a Trump candidacy will have the down-ticket consequence of a Democrat take-over of the Senate?

But on the other side of that coin - does a surrender now more or less assure that dispirited and divided Republicans will have even less reason to go out and vote for Republican Senators and Congresspeople?

IMHO the Senate needs to hold out and run this fall on the notion that, whatever troubled Republican voters do vis a vis Trump, Hillary and any third party Presidential candidates, staying home is NOT AN OPTION. Vote Hillary and a straight Republican ballot down-ticket if you must, but vote.

OK, that message may not make for a compelling bumpers ticker. but they have time to work on it.

IT'S COMING TO ME... Republican Senators and Congressfolk: We Are Trump's Wall!

Deliberately left vague is whether that Republican wall is keeping Trump in or out.

ONLY CRAZY BY CURRENT STANDARDS:

A Tweet by Matthew Miller:

Imagine December: a lame-duck GOP Sen rushing to confirm Garland & Dems filibustering so Clinton can choose someone younger, more liberal.

Comments

[Threadkiller]

I wonder if Garland has been involved in any birther suits.

[Keep the faith.]

I'm confident a strong objection can be found to anyone Obama proposes.

[Threadkiller]

Senate Judiciary: Mr. Garland, do you think RejecTed is eligible for POTUS?

Mr. Garland:I do not wish to comment on an issue that will soon be before the court.

[Jack is Back!]

Happy Birthday, MarkO.

[James D]

I'm confident a strong objection can be found to anyone Obama proposes.

By definition, anyone Obama proposes for any position is unqualified.

[James D]

Out of curiousity, is Eric Holder still in Contempt of Congress? Was that ever resolved?

I'd pay money for McConnell to find a microphone and say:

"Mr. Obama's previous Secretary of State is currently under FBI investigation. His former Attorney General is still techincally in contempt of Congress. With such a track record of appointing lawbreakers, I can't in good conscience allow a vote on any of his nominees to go forward until all those matters are resolved."

[narciso]

He was a clerk for brennan, zaphod, lurch, red queen and the solon along with leaky Leahy are on record obstructing so it's an easy call.

[Jack is Back!]

TDS: [Trump Derangement Syndrome]

Its well documented here from early on that I am not a Trumpster but TDS has come to this: Will Trump Have his Altamont.

Some of us are old enough to remember the Altamont Speedway Concert of December 1969 that this guy is now willing to project on a future Trump rally. Really, dude?

http://spectator.org/articles/65781/will-trump-have-his-altamont

[narciso]

Gimme shelter was played there right?

[clarice]

Happy Birthday, MArk O

[Appalled]

JIB:

On a number of occasions, Trump has suggested that the roughing up of hecklers isn't a bad thing. (And notice how hecklers sometimes get treated at his rallies) Trump is loosening the reigns on his followers. (He is not hiring the Hell's Angels for security, however)

Meanwhile, BLM and the medley of oddly named left wing groups seems to have no problem getting physical.

Altamont is possible. Not all that likely -- but not out of the question.

[Threadkiller]

Happy Birthday MarkO!

[James D]

Appalled, you're reversing cause and effect there.

BLM and the myriad other prog groups have been violent for YEARS. And the Democrats & MSM have had no problem flat-out making up lies about conservatives (spitting at John Lewis after the Obamacare vote; lies about violence at Tea Party rallies; first assumptions about every mass shooter and terrorist act that it's Tea party/conservative/etc when every single time it ends up being a prog or a flat-out lunatic; and on and on and on).

It is so far past time that our side stands up to it and pushes back.

Trump has NOTHING to apologize for, nor do his supporters.

[narciso]

Happy birthday, Mark O.

No, not altamont, where did that Manson follower squeeky strike again.

[Dave (in MA)]

It's funny that Altamont should get brought up the same morning Insty (via Ed Driscoll) had a post debunking much of the Altamont mythology.
http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/229226/#respond

[Tom Bowler]

I think McConnell will have a hard time backing away from these words:

“The current Senate Democratic Leader once stated that ‘nowhere in [the Constitution] does it say the Senate has a duty to give presidential nominees a vote.’ The incoming Senate Democratic Leader did not even wait until the final year of the last President’s term to declare that the Senate should ‘not confirm a Supreme Court nominee except in extraordinary circumstances.’

“And we all know what Vice President Biden said when he chaired the Judiciary Committee. ‘It would be our pragmatic conclusion that once the political season is under way, and it is, action on a Supreme Court nomination must be put off until after the election campaign is over.’

“That’s the essence of the ‘Biden Rule.’ Yesterday the Chairman of the Judiciary Committee and I personally reiterated to President Obama that we will observe it.

From one of McConnell's press releases.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

GOP Congress's bill to allow IRS to revoke passports signed into law.

I just am having a really hard time trying to understand how people have been driven to take a chance on a loose cannon who is not in the mainstream of the GOP and, being a loose cannon, at least has some tiny chance of clearing the relics and drunkards and teat sucking pustules off the decks. Anyone else get it?
It's a puzzler alright.

[Dave (in MA)]

narciso,

http://www.setlist.fm/setlist/the-rolling-stones/1969/altamont-speedway-livermore-ca-43d6fbb3.html

The Meredith Hunter shooting took place midway through the Stones' set during Under My Thumb, though the movie would lead you with the impression that it was near the end.

[Dave (in MA)]

(stabbing - he was the shooter, but didn't hit anybody)

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

McConnell has never had a problem finding reverse before.

[anonamom]

Thank goodness!

Another magna Harvard law school grad who has spent the majority of his life in an east coast city for the SC.

[Theo]

Last night, when the very earliest of the early exit poll data started to come out I posted the following:

"based on very early and partial exit poll data and some back of the envelope calculations by a non math major and a couple of trips to the Ouija Board, it is very roughly estimated that Trump will get about 42-43% of the votes cast in today's Republican primaries."

A lot of people scoffed at me.

And of course, if anyone thought that I was actually PREDICTING that he would end up with 42-43% of the vote in any sort of reliable way, then the scoffing was justified. All I was really trying to do was squeeze some overall indication out of some very preliminary data.

And as it turned out, last night Donald Trump got.....(drumroll)....43% of the votes cast in the Republican primaries.

I am not saying that I called this. I did not want him to get that much. The data set that I had was very sketchy and preliminary. But as it turned out, it did in fact hold up and indicate very closely how it was going to turn out.

The problem for the Stop Trump people is that 43% is probably enough going forward UNLESS they immediately coalesce behind an alternative candidate. They need to do that or drive his support below last night's level.

[Appalled]

James D:

It is so far past time that our side stands up to it and pushes back.

Trump has NOTHING to apologize for, nor do his supporters.

Expect violence at Trump rallies, then. Also expect that Trump supporters (unlike the case in Chicago) will be the ones starting much of it.

[Miss Marple 2]

Let me boil this entire announcement to this:

Confirm this guy or you're not FAIR.

[James D]

Appalled, there would be violence even if Trump wasn't talking as he does.

Look at the madness the left unleashed in Wisconsin. Look at BLM. Look at the Occupiers.

Trump is just the excuse for them. Do you honestly believe that, if Cruz were leading now and getting crowds of 10K at his rallies, we wouldn't be seeing the same kind of provocations by these groups at them? Or Rubio?

If you don't think we'd be seeing groups trying to infiltrate their rallies, shouting them down as race traitors, getting into the faces of the Cruz/Rubio/Whoever supporters and pushing until they pushed somebody too far, then I have some bridges to sell you.

[boris]

"Expect violence at Trump rallies, then"

The idea that a leftist/BLM activist engaging in event disruption and it's the citizen who slugs him that "started it" seems ... well ... stupid questionable.

[omg]

"Expect violence at Trump rallies, then. Also expect that Trump supporters (unlike the case in Chicago) will be the ones starting much of it"

Appalled, that statement is a pile of horse pucky!

[Miss Marple 2]

Now, the judge gives heartstrings speech to make us feel bad he won't get a hearing.

Saying nice things about the Constitution and the law.

I ain't buying it.

Oh, he's a weeper, too.

My heart is hardened, sorry, but we have had too much sentimental theater.

[Beasts of England]

Thanks for posting that set list, Dave (in MA)! That's as solid a grouping as one could ever wish for. And covering Love in Vain from Robert Johnson reaffirms their pedigree. Dang that's pure.

[jimmyk]

Another magna Harvard law school grad who has spent the majority of his life in an east coast city for the SC.

He's also Jewish, I learned to my surprise. Jewish mother, Protestant father, but raised Jewish.

[narciso]

I would say remember Miguel estrada, and act accordingly.

[Appalled]

omg:

Are you saying the mess in Chicago over the weekend was Trump's fault too?

[glasater]

♥

¸¸.•*¨*•♫♪ Happy Birthday, Dear MarkO ♪♫•*¨*•.¸¸

[Appalled]

Cop: You punched the guy in the face!

boris: He insulted Natasha! He insulted moose and squirrel! He insulted Jay Ward, my creator and overlord!

Cop: I still gotta run you in...

boris: This American law! It sure is stupid...er, questionable...

[boris]

Deterrence: Disrupt at your own peril.

How many hot-heads are going to get themselves tossed in jail just so Trump can pay their "legal fees"?

[jimmyk]

I would say remember Miguel estrada, and act accordingly.

Can they just sit on it till November, and then in the remote chance a Dem wins, vote him in then? He probably is better than anyone Hillary would nominate.

[narciso]

And Janis Rogers brown.

[pagar a bacon, country ham and sausage supporter]

Happy Birthday, MarkO!

[boris]

"boris: This American law! It sure is stupid"

So says Appalled the Flying Squirrel.

[DebinNC]

Trump event attendees need to have their cell phones out and ready to catch any Dem disruptor shenanigans. No cameras caught the car-windows bashing Chicago attendees discovered after leaving? No audio of obscenities spewing gloaters in Chicago arena and outside? No police radio audio noting when and where the disruptors were massing, and whether police were told to stand down? etc., etc.

[Theo]

jimmyk --

Obama will withdraw his name before he can be confirmed in the event of a Hillary win.

Obama is now acting like a deal maker. You can have this older more sensible Supreme Court justice OR you can have what's behind Door #2, which is ONE of the following: (a) Hillary's pick, sure to be a hard core young lefty confirmable by a newly elected Dem controlled Senate or (b) Trump's left wing sister or whoever he gets his mind to appoint that day or (c) a rocked ribbed Constitutionalist appointed by Rafael Cruz.

So which do you chose? The bird in the hand or the unknown behind Door # 2?

[henry]

if they want to preserve Theo's precious party... they choose a door to be named later.

[DebinNC]

I hope the BLM peeps are wondering why now lame duck BOzo nominated three whites, two of them Jewish, but no black.

[Porchlight]

Well. I was amazed to hear that my mom, who has not voted Republican for President in her lifetime that I know of, is seriously considering voting Trump to stop Hillary.

I never bring up politics with her, but she brought it up with me this morning and we had quite a sane conversation about it. Knock me over with a feather.

My dad, same of course - he is a conservative.

My folks vote in FL.

[Michael (fpa Patriot4Freedom)]

MarkO - Happy Birthday, oh conspiratorial one!

Here's a possible conspiracy to consider:

Are Pres. oBOzo and the nominee mentioning "violence outside the judicial process" (referring to the OKC Murrah Bldg. bombing) as prelude to stoking more fears of "right-wing violence" and "gun-toting militias" through any Supreme Court nominee's hearing?

Conspiratorial minds want to know.
.

[Porchlight]

If McConnell wants to keep his job he obviously tells Obama to pound sand.

[DebinNC]

Glad to read the update from Janet, but am now wondering where Jeff is.

[Buckeye]

The problem for the Stop Trump people is that 43% is probably enough going forward UNLESS they immediately coalesce behind an alternative candidate. They need to do that or drive his support below last night's level.

The problem for the Stop Trump people is that the prospect that they will coalesce behind any ONE person is slim at best.

The only real shot was getting behind Cruz and they were too busy puking on their shoes to give that serious consideration.

[Dave (in MA)]

BoE, they were around their peak in those years. I haven't spend a dime on them since 1978.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

The problem for the Stop Trump people is they can't stop Trump.

[DebinNC]

Maybe I'm wrong, but McConnell is very wily imo. I take comfort in believing BOzo has been tormented by his inability to personalize his R attacks on specific targets. It's hard for a rabid dog to eat a turtle.

[Buckeye]

The problem for the Stop Trump people is they can't stop Trump.

Short, sweet and to the point.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Trump is Mexico's enemy.

Barry is Mexico's friend.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

He is also America's friend.

He does keep some of his promises.

[DebinNC]

Earlier link says Trump pulled out of the next debate - Mar. 21, Salt Lake City, the day before AZ and UT primaries. Cruz v. Kasich should be interesting for the comparatively few who watch.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Negative interest rates equals housing bubble? Inconceivable.

Looks like Sweden is trying to be more like us rather than vice versa.

[Porchlight]

There is basically no polling in AZ and UT. I would assume Cruz would take UT and Trump would have a good shot in AZ, but I don't know.

[maryrose]

Happy Birthday Marko!
Porch
Did you have a nice day yesterday?

[James D]

Happy birthday, MarkO!

[Porchlight]

Hi maryrose - yes, thank you! Had lunch with the family and then dinner with Mr. Porch and saw some bands afterwards. I got bupkis from young Master Porchlight except hugs but the girls presented me with some makeup items and also composed a dance routine. :)

[Thomas Collins]

How is a Trump nomination assured? What is quite likely is that unless Trump makes peace with the GOP pooh-bahs, Trump isn't getting the nomination. Trump needs to massage the pooh-bahs while still keeping his outsider status. Perhaps Trump will finesse this, but I'm really surprised to hear so many people speak of him as the presumptive nominee. As of today, it's a backroom convention. Noone has 50% plus one of the delegates selected.

[Porchlight]

TC, if Trump has a plurality of delegates and they force another candidate, that candidate will certainly lose. So the GOP needs to be massaging Trump, not the other way around.

[pagar a bacon, country ham and sausage supporter]

Yet Hillary Clinton apparently is considered to be US presidential material.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-16/hillary-clinton-emails-reveal-more-shameless-cronyism

[narciso]

They will give is nothing we want, this why the grassroots has gone delta house, in part.

[rich@gmu]

"OK, that message may not make for a compelling bumpers ticker. but they have time to work on it."

Wear pajamas. Get Drunk. Talk to your friends and family about the shitty 2016 election.

[jimmyk]

Happy Birthday, MarkO!

FWIW, and my track record is lousy, I think the most likely scenario is this: Trump gets the nomination--he comes too close to a majority for the convention to nominate someone else. He will then have a few months to assure the conservatives that he will govern as a conservative, the GOPe-ers that he can win if the party unites, and a lot of the #NeverTrump-ers relent, hold their noses, and vote for him. He then wins easily over the shrieking harridan, something like 54-46, 320 EVs. You heard it here first.

Incidentally, Theo, I don't think his sister is "left wing." She may not be the next Scalia, but she's not a leftie. In any case, there's almost no chance he nominates her, given her age and the obvious nepotism complaint.

[lyle]

Boys at Powerline have called the Nov election for Nurse Ratched. Game over, folks...

I'm sure this will be the recurring thema for the foreseeable future at NRO, WSJ, WS, et al. Not sure I believe it but what do I know...

[rich@gmu]

probably too late in the day to be talking pajamas and drinking but it was the only tag line that came to mind. should remind everyone of Zerocare and the Stalinist Individual Shared Responsibility Payment ...

[rich@gmu]

and a happy birthday to MarkO.

[lyle]

And HB, MarkO!

[Truthbetold]

Larry Silverstein - New WTC7 designed in 2000

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=j-_WYHwUtcI&time_continue=71&ebc=ANyPxKp3EDeVMqbze63H80gdubv5nd4m0e6imFxvEpuS8fsCPbFS8V-PuoAHqQ-8_7nv3UD8kjCxLWvRwEv0qXteBq22zq2cCg

[Porchlight]

For goodness sake, if everyone insists he's going to lose, the odds of that happening go way up. They wouldn't have done this to an establishment candidate.

[Porchlight]

Ignore the troll.

[James D]

From your lips to God's ears, jimmyk!

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

BDS was understandable because they started out batshit crazy.
TDS is much less so because the people under its spell seemed to be pretty rational prior to the contagion.

[rich@gmu]

Glad you had a great birthday Porchlight.

[narciso]

And yet their track record is o-2, so why should their opinion matter.

[East Bay Jay]

Ig "BDS was understandable because they started out batshit crazy.
TDS is much less so because the people under its spell seemed to be pretty rational prior to the contagion."

I would go beyond 'pretty rational'. Ace (of Spades) and TM are about the sharpest minds I read and they're both NTers. This show couldn't be scripted if you tried......

[narciso]

Our host is socratic, well is prone to twitchy rage.

[lyle]

Why anyone thinks Trump would pull punches against that hag astounds me. I know, I know, the CW will be if he attacks her it will only draw more sympathy for her, thus more votes. Do you REALLY believe that?? I don't. She's the most unlikeable, untrustworthy, off-putting, screeching harridan with negatives as high or higher than his. Her ceiling is lower and her appeal is way narrower. Am I happy about these two candidates? No. But I agree with jimmyk, Trump can take some states that a GOPe tomato can could not.

[Truthbetold]

The Kelly File' Fact-Checks the 'D-Minus Rating' on Trump University

http://insider.foxnews.com/2016/03/14/trump-university-received-d-rating-kelly-file-fact-checks

[cheerleader]

copied this from a post at CTH

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 3m3 minutes ago

Is this what we want for a President?

https://www.instagram.com/p/BDBS8bYGhWr/

[rich@gmu]

lyle-

>>>I know, I know, the CW will be if he attacks her it will only draw more sympathy for her, thus more votes. Do you REALLY believe that??<<<

Rick Lazio.

>>>Trump can take some states that a GOPe tomato can could not.<<<

like a mythical GOP presidential win in PA (last won by Bush 41)

[cheerleader]

Porchlight, I think that's already happening. He said at his presser last night that McConnell's been talking to him.

Two other things about the presser: Politico was escorted off the grounds and not allowed to attend. Corey was prominent on the stage, that is a first, and that was a message.

[Theo]

jimmyk --

I hear you on Trump's sister. I was just trying to illustrate that his idea of a great SC justice is not Scalia. My point is that the dilemma is whether to take Obama's offer -- which is about as good an appointment as we can possibly expect from any Democratic president -- or do we take our chances on something that could be (a) a whole lot worse, or (b) a total mystery (a Trump nominee) or (c) a whole lot better.

Decisions, decisions. Monty Hall made a career out of this sort of dilemma. Trump claims to be an expert on The Art of the Deal. What does he say about this proposed deal?

[James D]

Trump is not Rick Lazio. And Hillary 2016 is not Hillary 2002.

Besides, everyone already knows who and what Trump is. Nobody will be able to clutch their pearls when he does to her what he's been doing to everyone else all along.

[cheerleader]

Instead of the debate, Mr. Trump will be giving a speech at the AIPAC 2016 conference.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

-- I was just trying to illustrate that his idea of a great SC justice is not Scalia. --

No, he said Clarence Thomas is.

[cheerleader]

Theo makes shit up.

"I was just trying to illustrate that his idea of a great SC justice is not Scalia. "

Mr. Trump has said the exact opposite:

Donald Trump: "Antonin Scalia Was One of the Best of All Time, Didn't Legislate From the Bench"

“Justice Scalia was a remarkable person and a brilliant Supreme Court Justice, one of the best of all time,” Trump said.

“His career was defined by his reverence for the Constitution and his legacy of protecting Americans’ most cherished freedoms,” Trump continued. “He was a justice who did not believe in legislating from the bench and he is a person whom I held in the highest regard and will always greatly respect his intelligence and conviction to uphold the Constitution of our country.

The presidential candidate, who has been campaigning himself as a pro-lifer, says Scalia death is a “massive setback” for the conservative cause."

http://www.lifenews.com/2016/02/13/donald-trump-antonin-scalia-was-one-of-the-best-of-all-time-didnt-legislate-from-the-bench/

[Theo]

jimmyk --

My crystal ball might have as many "ifs" in it as yours, but it says something different. Trump starts out with an unfavorable rating of 61% (50% "very" unfavorable), which is even, incredibly, worse than her 55% unfavorable rating (42% "very" unfavorable). Trump is not going to lower his unfavorable rating by doing the kinds of attacks that lyle and James D. seem to want.

We cannot know the future, but given his high negatives and his opposition within the party, I think he is almost certain to lose. I think either Cruz or Kasich would be likely to beat her.

It might be worth taking the chance on Trump IF he were the absolute paragon of conservative thought and deeds. But given his present, not to mention his past, positions on so many issues, his obvious lack of devotion to any principle other than self advancement, it seems obvious to me that we should do all that we can to get another nominee. Maybe it is too late, but Trump is going to lead to disaster in my opinion.

[narciso]

The dems believe politics in a extension of war, and hence give no quarter.

[cheerleader]

Mr. Trump also agrees with Justice Scalia that The New York Times versus Sullivan ruling concerning libel laws was unconstitutional.

[cheerleader]

Exactly Ignatz, he said his model would be Clarence Thomas.

[Threadkiller]

Kelton Wells ‏@keltonwells

BREAKING: GOP Debate in Salt Lake City is canceled. Confirmed by Salt palace Convention Center.
https://mobile.twitter.com/keltonwells/status/710144062737616896

[Porchlight]

Theo, we know how you feel. If you don't have some suggestions as to *how* we can arrive at a non-Trump nominee without blowing up the party, I'm not sure what else there is to talk about.

[Theo]

cheerleader --

Again, I think you miss my point. Even if you think that President Trump would pick a SC justice from Ted Cruz' short list of candidates (and I am very doubtful about that, but even if), the issue is whether to take Obama's nominee, who is either (a) a whole lot more acceptable than whatever President Rodham would come up with or (b) a whole lot worse than whoever President Cruz (or, in your opinion President Mr. Trump) would nominate.

A lot I suppose depends on how confident we are about the outcome in November. At this point, my answer would be "not so much." YMMV.

[Porchlight]

A lot I suppose depends on how confident we are about the outcome in November. At this point, my answer would be "not so much." YMMV.

Missing here is the fact that if McConnell caves, we will probably lose the Senate and then we're even more completely hosed.

So it's an easy call. Hold the line.

[James D]

Trump is not going to lower his unfavorable rating by doing the kinds of attacks that lyle and James D. seem to want.

No, he won't. But he will raise hers.

I don't think it's an unreasonable belief that Trump is far more likely to attack her aggrssively and effectively than any of the other GOP candidates.

And I will say again, Cruz' negatives are quite a bit lowe than Trump's NOW. What will they look like after a billion dollars of Dem attack ads, and endless denunciaton of him as a race traitor, and endless mocking of his every weird tic and amping up of the "off putting" manner he has that many here (even some of his fans) have noted?

The polls are not a static thing. They can be changed, both for the better and for the worse, by the actions of the candidates and their reactions to attacks from the other side.

[Theo]

Porchlight --

What is the basis for your view that if McConnell "caves" the Republicans lose the Senate? I am not arguing with you, just asking. I do not immediately see how the fate of, for example, Mark Kirk here in Illinois is going to have anything to do with whether McConnell allows a vote on Merrick or not.

[derwill]

So last week's meme--starting with grabbergate and ending with the Chicago thug-o-rama what that Trump causes violence. The purpose of this meme was to stop Trump yesterday--to the point where we saw the GOPe, their talking heads, and the other three candidates all trash the First Amendment because stopping Trump was more important than defending free speech and the right to assemble.

Early on as the meme developed the thug-o-rama participates got identified and Bernie Sanders supporters.

So who got stopped in yesterday's primaries. Hint--it wasn't Trump.