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April 05, 2016

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Theo

Probably not first.

Theo

But maybe

Theo

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-cruz-idUSKCN0X22L2?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews

Torn Towers.

United, they stand; divided, they fall.

Jack is Back

Eerst? Go Cruz.

BTW, for those who knock Trump supporters do you think they are as stupid and more manipulative as those who still cheer the naive utterances of Obama? It will be a major operation to raise that bar.

common man

I thought it was ON Wisconsin? Go Wisconsin, just does not have the proper ring to it...

Threadkiller

IVR

Porchlight

Go Balloons!

common man

Speaking of virtual reality, Ramirez nails it. Obama has the VR headset on, which is why he finds everything hunky dory...

common man

So Real Clear politics has it Cruz plus 4.7%. I got over, who wants the under for $200 heads up?

Porchlight

I have never understood overs and unders but I think Trump has a shot at a close win a la Missouri. Either way I predict Trump will lose by less than 4.7% when it's all said and done.

Skoot

"Go Ballons!"

Way to bring it, in Jeff's absence, Porch :)

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

Bullet headed CA governor with a lead core wrapped in a copper jacket admits "minimum wage laws don't make economic sense" signs law regarding economics anyway on "[im]moral, [anti]social and [disgustingly]political" grounds.

Hey Jerry, if it doesn't make sense economically, that means it's destructive, which makes your signature immoral, idiot.

Porchlight

Skoot, it'll be Go Balloons on steroids at the Dem convention if Sanders' threat is for realz....

henry

No way Porch, BernieBros will inhale all the nitrous instead of inflating the balloons.

common man

Just sayin'

Republican presidential underdog Ted Cruz has pulled into a statistical dead heat with front-runner Donald Trump, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling.

Porchlight

Yasss henry! They don't call them Bernouts for nothing...

Porchlight

common man, that "statistical dead heat" kind of is almost exactly the same difference between the two candidates in the RCP average for Wisconsin.

common man

Trump has hurt himself, maybe shot himself in the foot in the past two weeks. If you cant deal with that fact, it still does not make it a fact.

hrtshpdbox

Cruz 41, Trump 39, Kasich 19, that's my guess. I have no idea what that means as far as delegates, though.

hrtshpdbox

If you cant deal with that fact, it still does not make it a fact.

I'm thinking you were going for something else there.

common man

I saw a Trump spokesmouth on earlier, who was bragging about getting 3 delegates in Wisconsin. Not calling for a glorious come from behind victory, or even a close loss. Fighting to a near draw, nope. 3 delegates out of 44. Let that sink in.

henry

3 delegates is one Congressional district. My guess, north woods. He stayed in state two extra days to eke that out. (If he does eke it out).

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

Bay Area billboard;
"New Homes in San Fransisco; From the Low $1,000,000s."

This is a whole eight years after the last housing and stock market crash and is occurring among a bunch of arrogant little twerps who think they're the smartest people in history going back at least to, well, 2008.

Curiously no one noticed the macro aggression of the billboard sporting a stereotypical Asian chick.

Michael (fpa Patriot4Freedom)

My best guess . . .

Cruz 45
Trump 33
Kasich 20

narciso

the rest of the story, with inspector dreyfus,


http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/262389/comey-clintons-and-clemency-lloyd-billingsley

narciso

well spectre would work with it's affiliates,

http://freebeacon.com/issues/panama-papers-implicate-podesta-client/

Miss Marple 2

I don't make predictions.

I imagine Cruz will win, but I would like it if Trump pulled a surprise victory.

Mainly so I could enjoy some schadenfreude, but I imagine that's unlikely.

narciso

* think they are going to need oxygen tanks,


http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/04/fox-news-wisconsin-exit-polls-trump-independents-cruz-well-evangelicals/

narciso

yes, that's why 1517 happened,

http://www.weaselzippers.us/265379-greek-officials-we-need-to-build-a-mosque-in-athens-or-risk-terrorist-attacks/

Porchlight

The ARG poll was the only one to include indies and Dems in the sample as I understand it.

RIF

The tweet gateway pundit put in the post for the exit poll stat is a photoshopped exit poll graphic.

Good lord you can put anything on the internet and the internet will run with it.

henry

Narciso, Eau Claire is in the one Congressional District Trump might win. If Trump had that lead in Brookfield, it would be newsworthy.

henry

Porch, I think all the polls call registered voters and ask (registration in WI is NOT by party). The ask is 1 e you going to vote, 2 which primary, 3 which candidate, 4 are you a D, R, I

narciso

good to know, henry,]


http://twitchy.com/2016/04/05/police-escort-homeless-man-away-from-bill-de-blasio-presser-on-helping-the-homeless/

it's a good thing he's not a ground hog,

Porchlight

Thanks, henry. Here's the poll if anyone wants to parse it out.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/rep/wirep.html

common man

OR

ARGGGGH is carrying on with their horrible record as a very marginal pollster. We will know in about a hour or so...

narciso

what has been their largest flub, are they zogby poll foolish,

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3523912/Mossack-Fonseca-law-firm-center-Panama-Papers-leak-tied-history-s-notorious-politicians-bank-robbers-drug-lords.html

a little retconning, necessary for the narrative,

Porchlight

ARGGGGH is carrying on with their horrible record as a very marginal pollster.

Sure, except NH, AZ, OH, FL...they screwed up in TX and MI.

daddy

“We shouldn’t make it legal to engage in transactions just to avoid taxes,” he added, praising instead “the basic principle of making sure everyone pays their fair share”.

If you take this Obama philosophy and apply it to everything, you see just how dicked up he is:

(ie)---We shouldn't make it legal to allow people to claim in-State status just to avoid out of state Tuition...making sure everyone pays their fair share.”

---We shouldn't make it legal to shop for Private health Insurance just to avoid the cost of ObamaCare...making sure everyone pays their fair share."

---We shouldn't make it legal for a company to move out of New York or California to Texas just to avoid astronomical in State Income Taxes ...making sure everyone pays their fair share."

---We shouldn't make it legal for ___________ to use their God given brains to avoid _______________________...make sure everyone pays their fair share."

Porchlight

By the way I don't think 10 points is anywhere near realistic...but I think Trump can scrape out a win.

There, I said it. :)

henry

Well, the bold can call it in 35 minutes... those desperate for ad revenue can dance a while. I'm most interested in the SC election, with record turnout for both R and D anything might happen. Last I saw the schools got kids to the polls... bad for Hillary and bad for the SC.

narciso

maybe had they blocked the deal in the first place,

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/corker-gop-will-pass-bill-to-block-irans-access-to-dollar/article/2587673?custom_click=rss

Jack is Back!

Has California ever played a role in determining any primary? It could be headed there. Can't believe I have put up with all this to June or even July.

Porchlight

Hoping for the best for SC too, henry.

For what it's worth, I've been following The Donald fans on Reddit. They are hilarious. Mostly young college males AFAICT, but a mix of Dems and social libs among the conservatives. There seems to be an understanding that Kloppenburg delenda est.

common man

Yeah dont take my word for it. Lets ask that that polling expert at 528. Last I checked he gave ARGHHH a very fine C -. I put that in the professional courtesy department. In other words a D would cost him his seat at the bar at the pollster convention bar confab...

henry

Porch, Kloppenburg would fit better with Bernie voters -- both are full on commies.

narciso

well their entrail reading has slipped a bit themselves,

Theo

ARG picked Bush to win the NH primary in 2000. McCain won by 19 points. And ARG is headquartered in NH.

Preliminary exit results appear to suggest wins by Cruz and Bernie. But nobody really knows yet. And we will all know soon.

Jim Miller

The British bettors have been dumping Trump for the past week. As I write, he is down from about a 70 percent probability of winning the nomination to about 43 percent.

(If you want to see the numbers, there's a link to the site at my 2:51 PM post.)

narciso

some of the usual suspects, and some new players,


https://panamapapers.icij.org/20160405-spies-secret-offshore-companies.html

Jim Miller

I should have added: That will make Democratic strategists nervous.

Captain Hate

Trying to avoid obsessing on how much I hate the backstabbing [Redacted] that make up the GOP, I'm following through with the positive feedback I got on The Flash after seeing the lead character on Supergirl and trying to join it in midstream. Very impressive cast which answers what Jesse Taylor's been up to since Lawlessness and Disorder and seeing the mayor of Blue Bloods out of a wheelchair. But the real eye opener, in more ways than one, is the gorgeous Danielle Panabaker, about whom I've been trying to figure out where I've seen her before. None of the roles in IMDB ring a bell and I'm pretty sure she hasn't done porn. It's a puzzler but I'm sure I'll figure it out.

narciso

maybe they didn't calculate the cross over vote, back then, the dem primary with bradley was a snoozer,

Porchlight

Y'all can look at whatever you want. I'm looking at ARG primary polls vs. results in 2016. Like I said, if it's a win it will be by a tiny margin.

GUS

Daddy, the President of the United States is telling the populous that he should have more of their money. The Federal govt spent 2.6 Trillion in 2006 and spent 3.6 in 2014.

OBAMA has spent a TRILLION more dollars than the government spent in 2006.

Yet he wants more. What have we gotten for his money?

narciso

I vaguely recall her from that series with woods,
but she seems familiar from other roles,

Porchlight

Are you guys drinking yet? I'm at work with oldest Porchlight child who is working on her Texas history project. :(

Miss Marple 2

Porchlight,

I gave up wine drinking for a while as I was putting on weight. I have one light beer in the evening, which I already drank.

I am now drinking Kroger Diet Tonic Water and pretending there is gin in it. LOL!

I don't think I will make it up to hear the results. I continue my TV news boycott so I will miss the breathless announcement of whoever wins, anyway.

narciso

well for example,

http://kdvr.com/2012/10/09/arg-poll-romney-up-50-46-on-obama-in-colorado/

henry

Miss M, the WSJ already told us Kasich wins. You won't miss a thing. :)

daddy

7 to 0 U Conn.

How come no Woman's Basketball Team can win unless it's coached by a man? Seems like the height of sexism to me, and the part of me that wants to hang out in the woman's toilet is darn angry about it!@#$

The other part, not so much.

Captain Hate

Are all these CW superhero shows linked? I'm pretty sure I saw the Blue Bloods mayor on a preview from tomorrow. This could get messy.

Captain Hate

The lady Terps won the 2006 championship under Brenda Frese.

Miss Marple 2

henry,

LOL! I don't think I will miss a thing, anyway. You guys have a good time.

I am still recovering from whatever flu-like thing I had and can't seem to get enough sleep.

Good night, all!

common man

Pat Summit????

narciso

yes, that fellow is the green arrow's associate, and supergirl, arrow, the flash and legends are under the same umbrella, also the guy who helms
the conspiracy theory themed blindspot, greg berlanti,

RIF

Less than a minute until the polls close Miss Marple.

henry

Polls closed.

clarice

Trump Up with Independents – 7 in 10 GOP Voters Support Trump’s Muslim Ban

Apr 5th, 2016 5:22 pm by Jim Hoft

Donald Trump is up 57% to 33% in Eau Claire exit polling– Exit Polls Wisconsin pic.twitter.com/7HcSaO2Gow — Diane Hauschildt (@DianeHauschildt) ... 95 Comments

Captain Hate

Yes Pat Summit was the gold standard.

daddy

"What is the use of a book Captain Hate post without pictures?" asked Alice.

FYI,

Scott Brown's daughter Ayla just sung the National Anthem at the U Conn-Syracuse National Championship.

Porchlight

Go Lady Huskies!

clarice

BREAKING NEWS: Fox News projects @BernieSanders is the winner of the Wisconsin Democratic Primary. https://t.co/15W9hTho4W

daddy

The lady Terps won the 2006 championship under Brenda Frese.

Yeah, but that was back in the dark ages before we invented Sexist outrage.

U Conn 28
Syracuse 13

end of the 1st Quarter.

RIF

Oh look the tweet about the 57-33 Eau Claire exit poll that was based on a photoshopped fox news graphic makes ANOTHER appearance at JOM.

The graphic says 1 PM CST. Exit polls aren't released at 1 PM CST.

SMDH

henry

CNN exit polls have Cruz and Sanders ahead.

RIF

Jay Cost
‏@JayCostTWS
Exit polls by region
Milwaukee: Cruz +30
SE: Cruz +26
SW: Cruz +10 (over Kasich)
NE: Cruz +8
NW: Trump -3
8:03 PM - 5 Apr 2016

Porchlight

IIRC there were exit polls released around 1 pm in the November 2004 Presidential election. Lighten up Riffie.

Porchlight

Awesome that Sanders won.

henry

What, I need a photo ID? Yes, it also has to be a WI photo ID... that IL drivers license won't help.

common man

Lets watch the turnout numbers. In almost everywhere there has been same primaries, the R turnout has buried the D turnout. With the SC vote today, plus the fact that Wisc usually goes D in Presidential elections, it will be quite startling if the pattern holds. I am thinking it might. In other words, the enthusiasm on the prog/commie side is not good.

clarice

Drudge:
WISCONSIN:
SANDERS 59% CLINTON 40%
CRUZ 45% TRUMP 42% KASICH 11%

common man

Only 2 % in so far but Cruz up by

22%.

Who took the under? Send me my winnings, in unmarked benjamins, please...

maryrose

Go Cruz
Win like Bernie!

Captain Hate

Scott Brown's daughter Ayla just sung the National Anthem at the U Conn-Syracuse National Championship.

Didn't Scottie Centerfold once challenge 404 to pick anybody and play him and his daughter. IIRC Scottie was a starting guard at Hofstra and would've smoked Zippy McSplinterass so badly it would have been almost as humiliating as I'd want.

clarice

wis Politics.com
wis Politics.com:
TUESDAY, APRIL 5, 2016
8:10 PM
Kennedy: Long lines near Marquette, UW-Green Bay
GAB Director Kevin Kennedy said there were long lines at precincts on the Marquette University and UW-Green Bay campuses as the polls closed.

Those in line at 8 p.m. will be allowed to vote.

Kennedy said some of the delays had to do with students, some of whom were registering for the first time and may not have been prepared for the new requirements of Wisconsin's voter ID law. The requirement was in place for only one race in 2012 before it was challenged in the courts. It was enforced at the February primary for the first time since that 2012 race.

City of Milwaukee Election Commission Executive Director Neil Albrecht said the lines at Marquette were largely due to students coming in and registering for the first time.

"We've got 11 registrants working," he said. "That's as many as we can fit in the space. A lot of them are having to get students IDs to meet the photo ID requirement."

narciso

as with all seres of this type, they had the character 'stretch'

clarice

drudge:WISCONSIN:
SANDERS 56% CLINTON 44%
CRUZ 54% TRUMP 29% KASICH 15%

maryrose

Hillary getting thumped Yeah!

maryrose

Doing it legitimately by showing ID
We have had photo ID in Ohio for over 20 years

GUS

When I voted they had a sign that said say it, (your name ostensibly) show it- NO WAY, I'M NOT DROPPING MY PANTS, errrrr I mean show my i.d. and then you get to vote.

I asked them if they were asking for my i.d. because I'm black.

clarice

Drudge--Sanders and Cruz take wisconsin.

common man

Damn dont you feel sorry for the busloads from Illinois and cant produce Wisconsin photo ID. That is a long trip back with no walking around money in your pocket either.

maryrose

Cruz takes it in Wisconsin
Schadenfreude it feels so good!

RIF

Sure, thing Porchie.

We should let obvious photoshops just go unchallenged because of something that happened 12 years ago.

henry

The college kids are hardest hit on the photo ID... most colleges refused to produce IDs to meet the spec, and a DL with a home address doesn't work. Also, now if they vote at home and at UW, they will get caught.

common man

Fox calls it for Cruz. That was quick. Now you know why the spokesmouth was talking about getting 3 delegates as if that was anything other than an unmitigated disaster. It was all he had.

I notice no one really took me up on the over/under. But as I said, if ARGGGH is all ya got, keep your wallet in your back pocket.

maryrose

Common man
Even if they can get to Wisconsin from Illinois they still have to register and show where they live Busted!

clarice

henry--it was long overdue--I remember the stories of unattended poll stations in Milwaukee and college kids walking around with fistfful of ballots.

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