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May 09, 2016

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common man

Finally had a chance to dig into those Quinny polls a bit. Would you believe that Quinny reweighted every single poll ( yes all three ) to reduce the number of actual Republican responses downward by a significant number? Go look for yourself if you doubt me whatsoever.

The crossover votes were about a wash, that being Hill got 9% of Rs and Trump got 7% of Ds, which given their weighting down of the Rs, makes that slightly less than a 2% gap in the witch's favor.

The lowest state had 53% of female voters too, and the highest had 55% which of course is in Hill's favor as well, since the US history is about 52% of the votes come from female voters.

All in all, none of that really matters since far more significant that weighting is that 16% were either third party or no opinion, which of course is about 15% too high for likely voter poll ( you cant vote none of the above on election day ).

Would love to see the exact make up of the undecideds, but no crosstab given for that.

All in all, I would say the current narative about Rs splitting apart, is the media saying what they hope is happening, not what pollsters are finding.

YMMV

narciso

even in israel, they tend to the scorpions,


http://www.israelvideonetwork.com/melanie-phillips-shut-down-israels-leftist-media-in-this-bombshell-interview/

Porchlight

( you cant vote none of the above on election day ).

Can't you? You can write in a candidate, or you can leave the top of the ticket unchecked, or you can stay home.

narciso

just send the message care of quradawi,


http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-emanuel-rauner-20160511-story.html

narciso

i'm still trying to figure where these planets lie, like epsilon eridani (vulcan) or somewhere near betelgeuse,

http://forum.kerbalspaceprogram.com/index.php?/topic/139531-the-best-of-keplers-may-10th-planets/

Beasts of England

As I've stated before, common man, turnout will win or lose the election. Folks who believe that turnout in the primaries is not indicative of the general election turnout are turning a blind eye to Trump's rallies - with turnout in the tens of thousands.

I think the doubters have to ask themselves: did Mittster ever have thirty thousand people at an event? Maybe once - but how about dozens of times and in damned near every state?

If you look back, one of the original incorrect anti-Trump memes was that the people who showed up at his rallies were too lazy to vote in the primaries (actual quote, but I won't mention who made that asinine prediction). They showed up at rallies; they showed up to vote in the primaries; and they'll show up to vote in the general.

common man

or you can stay home.

And if do, you dont count in the denominator or numerator at all. All the votes cast add up to 100% every single damn time.

Same is true for undervoting at the top of the ticket, its as if you stayed home.

As far as third party goes, with the notable exception or Wallace and Perot, who ran very visible campaigns, the US total for all third party candidates INCLUDING write ins, even Don Duck, tend to add up to approx 1% of the total votes cast.

So perhaps you missed my point, which means I was not clear enough. On election day, the non R or D votes will be about 1%. Quinny ducked the hard task of pushing the perpetually undecided among us to choose one, and let about 15% get away with that answer, rendering their polling pretty damn worthless from where I sits.

JMHanes

JeanD:

"border involved individuals”

LOL!


Threadkiller:

”Conservatives' first priority is their freedom, Republicans' first priority is negotiating freedoms away.”

I’m enjoying the irony in all these Conservative vs Republican formulations, in light of the fact that Trump’s base is Republicans, not conservatives.

Momto2


If you look back, one of the original incorrect anti-Trump memes was that the people who showed up at his rallies were too lazy to vote in the primaries

That is a crazy statement - it takes much more commitment to go to a rally than to vote!

Beasts of England

Absolutely, Momto2, but they were full-on Trump hate at the time (and even now) and reality wasn't going to dispel their distaste for Donnie's voters.

Momto2

RE: Brad Thor He's put some anti-Trump stuff on his blog, but he hasn't written anything remotely pro-Cankles.

I follow on Twitter and it is constant spew of anti-Trump and now this ....https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10153693576823990&id=83629783989&refid=52

"In Hillary Clinton, I also see multiple character flaws, but I see them as belonging not to a potential despot, but rather to a conniving, self-serving, progressive politician who believes in lining her own pockets....." "I think they are both terrible for our future. But between a big government progressive and a potential despot - every American must ask themselves where liberty has the greatest chance to survive over the next four years."

I'm ready to join Miss Marple and sell all my Thor books or donate to Goodwill.

Momto2

BOE - Ahhh - there's the rub - reality!

Buckeye

Beasts,

Looking at the map of voting for Trump in Appalachia, I see that Northern Alabama and Mississippi are included. I had forgotten that them thar hills extended that far south.

Does that mean that a redneck like me would feel right at home in say, Huntsville?

How big is the lake you are on? Obviously big enough for a nice SeaRay.

Porchlight

Thanks, common man, I understand you better now.

However, I still want to know how many undecideds/none of the above respondents there are, and I expect that number to be higher earlier in the year, and I also expect it to be higher when both candidates have high negatives. So I wouldn't pin it on Quinny. The other polls look a lot like this as well (Rasmussen, Reuters).

Beasts of England

How exactly does our form of government allow for a despot or despotism? You can't impeach and remove a despot, but congress wouldn't hesitate for a second to impeach The Donald. Some of these turds need a [redacted] dictionary. Stat!

Buckeye

Brad Thor sounds like a girl.

Porchlight

It's both Repubs and conservatives, JMH. And also Dems and liberals and indies.

It's some of everyone.

narciso

he seems to do best in midwestern states, the deep south, and the northeast, in terms of turnout,

maryrose

Paul Ryan has been in the Speaker chair for 6months.
He was duly elected by his peers in Congress.
Do you think his challenger will achieve the Speaker chair.?
Voters will support Ryan as a result of his current position and because they believe in him
How do you think Mitch McConnell got re-elected?
People in Kentucky wanted their Senator to be in charge of the Senate

Beasts of England

We are in the foothills, fo sho, Buckeye - and you're a great guy, so fitting in would be duck soup!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guntersville_Lake

If you open the wiki page, you'll see that it's a mere 69,000 acres!! And if you look at the photo, you can see the entrance to 'Martini Cove' at the top left above the lock entrance. :)

maryrose

Fox has a good spot on Benghazi

common man

Follow the migration path of the Scots Irish into America and you will find a significant base of the Donald's current base. They came to Virginia and headed to the western part of the state in Appalachia, and then moved westward into Tennessee and Kentucky, from there into Alabama, Mississippi and Missouri. The pioneer spirit of the frontier man, who wanted nothing except the government off their back, a few acres to work and call their own and chance to worship as they saw fit...

narciso

and what has he delivered in that period, maryrose, we know what happened in the lameduck session,

maryrose

Now Herridge
On Emails Comey says no such thing as a security inquiry as Clinton states

common man

A huge migration of the descendants of the Scots, went to Michigan in the late 50s and early 60s. Viola, Michigan results...

maryrose

No special rules for persons under an FBI investigation says Comey.

narciso

how does one get away, from walking out from an fbi inquiry, even if it's not formerly a grand jury,

mcewen and miniter, described six different ways the compound could have been releaved from drone to cruise missile out of sicily,

common man

I have cheat sheet for those of you watching Hillary Clinton deny she is being investigated for potential felony level violation of the laws of the US, watch her lips. If they are moving, she is lying her big fat @ss off. Every damn time.

maryrose

Narciso
He delivered what he was able to
Everyone needs to be more patient.
Once Obama is gone more will get done.
His plan to balance the budget and get rid of 20 trillion debt
He also has plans to fight poverty.
I heard him speak at Cleveland State University He

is a good family man and a normal person.

narciso

one is struck how demography, except for that 538 piece, history or economics, is necessary to be a pundit nowadays, and f chuck doesn't even have the excuse of bill hurt in broadcast news,

common man

I have a pretty significant prediction for tomorrow. Ryan and Trump will find that they have a lot more in common, and a very large common enemy ( i.e. the current make up of the Democrat Party, being extremely socialist and free loader. Hide and watch.

narciso

operating on all cylinders there,


http://www.breitbart.com/texas/2016/05/11/vicente-fox-calls-negotiations-drug-cartels/

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

VotersCharlie Brown will support Ryan kick the football as a result of his Lucy's current position and because they the blockhead believes in him her.

narciso

yes, ryan was in the tufnel circle of more selective audiences,

https://twitter.com/MarlenaCNN/status/730521025109233664

MaryD

common man,forget the moving lips! It's always been the downcast eyes that have been the tell.
When she does that, you can be sure she is lying her formidable ass off.

Porchlight

common man, agree with your comments.

Jim Webb's book Born Fighting is a pretty good chronicle of the fierce Scots-Irish.

Beasts of England

I hope that Trump tells him to get on board the Donnie Express or he'll be needing to get his Wienermobile license renewed. Choo-choo!!

maryrose

MaryD
So true . Also the cackle.

maryrose

Paul Ryan will set a conciliatory tone and explain to the candidate what he has to do to get the base back.

henry

FWIW, Nehlen is not getting much traction yet. His Trump endorsement has the local talk radio #NeverTrump mafia performing Ryan's oppo research for free. Ryan shows up more places around here than Nehlen as well (Ryan is very accessible and easy to find nearby very often -- he does the local thing well). Thus Nehlen winning would be a big surprise at this point.

That said, Nehlen on immigration and trade deals sounds interesting, although he tends to isolationist in some ways (from the way his website is written, his stop in my burg is still listed as "future"). That is a clear choice from Ryan (far too accommodating on Chamber of Crony plus no borders crap). I hope to get more info before choosing.

Captain Hate

After reading about that Grayson/Searchlight Creep dustup, I think I need a cigarette.

maryrose

I love how Ryan offered to step down from the convention committee and we heard crickets
Called the bluff effectively

maryrose

Let's get a new thread

narciso

well beyonce was like that as well, and her idiot husband or is it vice versa,

http://babalublog.com/2016/05/11/kim-and-kanye-just-love-the-quaintness-of-apartheid-cubas-misery-and-oppression/

Beasts of England

What does Ryan know about the base? Did the base want Ryan's bloated omnibus spending bill or twelve seperate appropriations bills through regular order? (It's the latter.)

common man

Yeah the Scots were such a pain in the arse to the British aristocracy that they were relocated to the 5 counties of Northern Ireland. They got along with the Irish no better. When given the chance, they flocked to the opportunity to live in America. Amazingly, after 5 or 6 generations, the leave me alone gene still survives...

On the other hand, the strongest supporter of Trump that I personally know, is my childhood friend from Michigan. He is first generation natural born American ( his parents are Italians who got to America for much of the same reasons the Scots came ). Its a melting pot I tell ya!

Porchlight

Yeah, I don't think Ryan and the base are particular chums. Anyway, what does a guy with one congressional district have to teach a guy with 12 million primary votes about what voters want? Ryan represents the GOPe, not voters.

Beasts of England

I'm interested in hearing your take, henry. Even if Nehlen doesn't win, he might give him a good scare...

Porchlight

It is a melting pot. This is the first time in a long while that I've felt that Americans really believe that in a good way.

Lurker Susie

Henry,

If you get a chance as Ryan's constituent would you ask him a question.
Choose A or B

Do you represent:

A. American citizens

B. Illegal aliens

Beasts of England

Kasich picked up one delegate in West Virgina last night. Break out the confetti machines - get back in!!

Porchlight

Go balloons!

anonamom

Half of GOP voters disapprove of Ryan:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279593-poll-nearly-half-of-gop-voters-disapprove-of-ryan

common man

Please stop with the 12 million votes comment, UNLESS you add that 16 million votes voted against him. He got to this point because there were a huge number of candidates. He won no huge mandate. We need all 28 million to lock arms and beat this lyin' bitch like a dime store drum on display in the middle store.

Ryan gets elected repeatedly in a very Obama friendly district. He has way more reasons to sound moderate, than say Miss Lindsay for example. He will address our bloated budget surgically, if he has an executive who will sign the bill.

narciso

weaver has a gift doesn't he, captaining the ss huntsman, and now this garbage scow,

Lurker Susie

He will address our bloated budget surgically, if he has an executive who will sign the bill.

No he won't. He has been in office 16 years. What has he accomplished?
Nothing. All the talking heads fawn over him. For what? Numbers guy?
His whole life experience is government.

JMHanes

”Afghanistan is a pointless graveyard.”

It is now. My point about holding ground was simply to say that if you’re not going to hold it, then there’s no point in sacrificing lives to take it. I wasn’t suggesting that our goal there should be western style democracy either, but that doesn’t mean that there were no alternatives to turning it into a giant suck zone with both military and diplomatic mismanagement on an epic scale.

”Special forces and air strikes are usually sufficient to keep harassing them and keep them on the run.”

That’s basically the Obama approach, which has been proving spectacularly unsuccessful in multiple theatres.

”Iraq is a different case but only because it is more centrally located.”

Even if that were, indeed, the “only” difference, which it certainly isn’t, that in itself is a strategically significant difference of enormous magnitude. Iraq could have been one of the most effective partners we’ve ever had when it comes to undermining Iran, rather than the reverse, thanks to Obama. An Iraqi ally could have also fundamentally changed the Israeli/Palestinian equation and mitigated the kind of Turkish blackmail we’re seeing now too. Even a relatively modest base of operations there would enable intel collection of the highest order in a region that is currently spawning extremists of increasingly dangerous ilk. It’s not just a question of troop numbers, but also of stick-and-carrot engagement, which could have reaped enormous rewards, rather than the abandonment which utterly wasted our hard won achievements and left Maliki et al to indulge their worst instincts in response to the resulting instability.

While I think it’s important not to conflate military interventionism with democratization, which you seem to be doing, I actually think Iraq was a better potential candidate than most.

”These poorly strategized wars do two pernicious things over and above all else….”

You essentially make my point. It’s not war/intervention per se that’s the problem. It’s poorly strategized ventures that gives interventionism a bad name.

Cynic fka Joan

AOL just made me vomit:

"It's pretty rare that a Department of Justice press conference will bring people to tears — today was a rare and historic exception.

"Today, Attorney General Loretta Lynch issued a formal response to HB2, North Carolina's anti-transgender law.

Lynch quote: "This is why none of us can stand by when a state enters the business of legislating identity and insists that a person pretend to be something they are not, or invents a problem that doesn’t exist as a pretext for discrimination and harassment."

"She also urged the state not to repeat the mistakes of the past, pointing out that it wasn't so long ago that restrooms were segregated on the basis of race."

Yes, I hate the media.

cheerleader

I doubt very much Mr. Trump will compromise with Ryan and his "base".

common man

Thanks for your very informed and informative comment.

GUS

Free James D!!!
It's really quite simple. The GOPe are quite happy to lose so long as they come in 2nd place.
Trump is kicking them to the curb. No third place prize for the GOPe. In other words, TRUMP is an EXISTENTIAL THREAT to the GOPe.
Rodham gives them a second chance at being #2.

narciso

silly people give yglesias the benefit of the doubt,

http://ordinary-gentlemen.com/2016/05/11/is-it-third-party-time/

with bremer, drumheller, pillar, armitage, mccarthy, car;e, that company man, who's memoir I ridiculed, the plan was bound to flounder,

Porchlight

common man, Romney ended up with 52% of primary votes against a far smaller and weaker field. We'll see where Trump ends up.

I think my question is still relevant. What does Ryan, former VP loser, have to teach the presumptive nominee about winning votes?

We do need all the votes we can get against the witch. But I just don't see the "but the votes against Trump!!!" argument as carrying much weight, at least not anymore. We have our nominee. He's doing a pretty bang-up job considering the competition and the direct opposition from the usual suspects and his own party leadership.

IMO, the House Speaker has no business lecturing him in public. It is not remotely unifying to do this - it's the opposite of unifying.

henry

Obama friendly district? Three cities (Racine, Kenosha, Janesville) where that is true. Rest of district makes TX look like a blue state. I am curious what impact voter ID has on the Chavez Center in Racine (home of major voting irregularities in the recall) or any Kenosha precinct (free voter bus rides from IL), but that doesn't impact the R primary. For that primary vote, think Cruz +15 or so as the makeup. Ryan will have the party machine on his side (plus talk radio) as Cruz did. However, the Cruz voter is closer to Trump on immigration and trade -- where Ryan is closer to Kasich / JEB!. It has a chance of being interesting.

Beasts of England

Holy shit! What the fuck ever, common man. Prove that the others voted against Trump. Prove it. Was every vote not cast for Cruz against Cruz? Because if so, your calculus falls to shit. His eleven million votes, so far, is made even more impressive by the presence of sixteen other candidates.

And your comment about surgically reducing the bloated budget is a benchmark in naïveté!! That's the reason for the seperate appropriation bills - which Ryan chose not to submit!! Good grief...

narciso

the humor of this typo is kind of lost,

https://twitter.com/PoliticalShort/status/730516209905475584

GUS

Some Trump supporter told RUSH that Ryan is just a Congressman from a "small" district.

All Congressional districts are the same size.

cheerleader

As the powers that be change every eight years, and the next guy always wants to undo everything that the previous guy did, I think it's best to refrain from the ideology of good intentions and be pragmatic. Intervening, breaking things, making promises, building up hope and ending up leaving people and nations out to dry, wreaks havoc in the world.

cheerleader

And it wreaks havoc on the home front too. The amount spent on the Iraq adventure was in the trillion level. What did the U.S. get for it? Nothing. Imagine how much a trillion could do for the U.S.A's infrastructure.

Janet S.

kim-and-kanye-just-love-the-quaintness-of-apartheid-cubas-misery-and-oppression/

Poverty tourism.
Elites like to VISIT places where the actual citizens have to carry their goods on donkeys. So cute. Don't want to mess that up.

Like James Cameron dancin' like a jackass to stop a hydroelectric dam project being built...then he flies home to his mansion with lights & AC. Sickening.

Janet S.

kim-and-kanye-just-love-the-quaintness-of-apartheid-cubas-misery-and-oppression/

Poverty tourism.
Elites like to VISIT places where the actual citizens have to carry their goods on donkeys. So cute. Don't want to mess that up.

Like James Cameron dancin' like a jackass to stop a hydroelectric dam project being built...then he flies home to his mansion with lights & AC. Sickening.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--It is now.--

It has been for thousands of years.

--That’s basically the Obama approach, which has been proving spectacularly unsuccessful in multiple theatres.--

It hasn't been spectacularly unsuccessful against smaller, mobile groups like AQ. It is largely the only way to engage such groups unless we plan on invading and occupying every country from Thailand to the Ivory Coast.

--Iraq could have been one of the most effective partners we’ve ever had when it comes to undermining Iran, rather than the reverse, thanks to Obama.--

Except Iraq is majority shia and even when we had hundreds of thousands of troops there it was constantly gravitating toward Iraq and grew closer even under Bush.

--While I think it’s important not to conflate military interventionism with democratization, which you seem to be doing...--

Um, it was the guys engaged in nation building, who you are telling me were engaged in a great project, who conflated the two.
Rubble makes no trouble is my version of intervention.

--You essentially make my point. It’s not war/intervention per se that’s the problem. It’s poorly strategized ventures that gives interventionism a bad name.--

Huh? If I had argued for isolationism then that would make sense. My point from the get go was to be more careful in choosing our fights and then fight them very differently than we have been. My point from the start was our strategy stinks and is unrealistic. Your point seemed to be that it wasn't so bad. It's hard to see how my assertion we should fight fewer and better wars based on an entirely different and revamped grand strategy is making your point.

henry

New thread.

GUS

"""We have our nominee"""

We??? We Porchlight??? There in lies the rub.
Trump won, fair and square. But Trump has NEVER been a Republican. Trump is NOT Conservative.
I am voting for Trump, because frankly Obama has been a LARGE SHIT SANDWICH, and RODHAM is a Shit Sandwich with a warm glass of piss chaser.
Paul Ryan IS a Republican, and I don't think he, as part of the GOPe....has completely come to grips with what has happened to the PARTY of STUPID, yet. Is Ryan supposed to support someone who does not represent the values of the GOPe????? Don't get me wrong, I think Ryan should work behind the scenes and come out in support of Trump, but the REPUBLICAN PARTY has had this ASS-KICKING coming to them for a LONG LONG TIME. Eric Cantor was the first shot in the war, and Weeeeeeeping Johnny Boner was second. McConnell sux on steroids, and Ryan is a good dude who allowed himself to be USED as a stop gap to the collapse that was inevitable.
Ryan has disappointed, but he'll come around.

Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki

--Imagine how much a trillion could do for the U.S.A's infrastructure.--

We don't have to imagine. That was Barry's Porkulus which produced nothing except money for cronies and Dem slush funds.

cheerleader

"Romney assails Trump for refusing to release tax returns."

Ryan & Mitt and their famous selfie are still tag-teaming, and Ryan's base consists of the people who did not put a clothes pin on their nose to vote for Mitt.

henry

Re "clothes pin on their nose to vote for Mitt"

Are you saying the special underwear makes him smell funny?

common man

Holy shit BOE. Prove they voted for Trump but it did not show up at the polls. But you cant. Facts are quite stubborn things. And as I struggle to hold my nose and again vote for the lesser of two evils, you seem to assume the election is over. If a guy who has voted Republican since at least 1976 is somewhat concerned about the nominee and his shoot from the mouth personality, imagine what everyone slightly to the left of me is thinking. Time to be gracious in victory and make the damn tent as full and as inclusive as possible. Getting to 50% + 1 ( or more ) is way more important than sticking your thumb in the eye of the ones you think are insufficiently on board, isnt it?

Sheesh.

Captain Hate

Glad to see Dudley Do Right Willard has found the heavy campaign artillery that he left on the shelf in the autumn of 2012.

JMHanes

Ignatz:

And my point from the get go is that we don't have to choose between promoting western civilzation and military interventions. Sans Obama's spectacular failures, people would be less inclined to take intervention off the table. I believe Iraq could have played out successfully, and think the Afghanistan venture could have come to a better end than it has. Heaving a fatalistic 1000 year old sigh lets Obama off the hook for gross mismanagement, and lets critics pretend that there weren't missed opportunities to change some important regional equations -- quite aside from any issues of Afghani self-governance or total occupation.

Beasts of England

I'd sure love to see Mitten's tax returns!! A roll up of line-items from his CPA doesn't mean a damned thing. Sick of that hypocritical whiner. Grrr.

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