UnPresidented, or, Timing Being Everything...

As we work towards Peak Crazy, could the timing work such that Hillary drops out after the FBI email investigation overheats and Trump withdraws after, well, excessive blowhardery?

If we're going to make history, let's make some history!

Comments

[boris]

Dreamer

[Theo]

TM --

Works for me!

[Threadkiller]

Theo, did you ever figure out anything about the 1000 people that were called?

[Theo]

TK --

I am not sure what you are referring to.

[Threadkiller]

Making us history:

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/06/londons-muslim-mayor-holds-rally-women-forced-back/

[Threadkiller]

Your poll that told you how many blacks hate Trump. Remember?

[Appalled]

TM:

I like your dreams, TM, but they are only dreams. The choice is Trump and Hillary. Whatever you do, your arm will turn black and fall off and your sensibilities will be offended.

[Threadkiller]

This Washington Post-ABC News poll by telephone June 8-12, 2016 among a random national sample of 1,000 adults, including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS of Media, Pa.

[Theo]

The whole business of Putin having Rodham's private emails is interesting. I cannot imagine what interest Putin would have in releasing them (assuming he has them). That would be essentially to shoot the hostage, which is generally not a good negotiating strategy. I would assume that Putin's play here would be to try to get something in exchange for NOT releasing the emails.

But this has a shelf life. If he released them now, she pretty much has to drop out of the race. What can she give him now to prevent this? On the other hand, once she is sworn in, the risk to her is considerably less if they are released.

I am sure that there are a lot of layers here and all sorts of possibilities. I sure home that Putin releases them but I am not sure why he would.

[Theo]

TK --

Oh yes. The poll showed that 90% of blacks viewed Trump unfavorably. (This is not quite the same as saying they "hate" him.)

You have pretty much answered your own question about who those people are. A random national sample of 1000.

This would imply that the number of black respondents would be about 120. (I don't know this for sure of course.) That would imply a fairly significant margin of error, perhaps as high as 10 or more percentage points.

If is really important to you to know if the percentage of black voters who view Trump unfavorably is 88% or 92%, this poll is too full of noise to help you out. If all you want is a general sense of how blacks view Trump, this poll (assuming competently performed by an honest pollster) is strong evidence that overall blacks view him negatively.

[lyle]

Here, TM. No one really knows her all that well:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article84097527.html

Clinton's new ads try to reintroduce a famous figure

Clinton is one of the most famous political figures in the world, but her aides insist there's much voters don't know about her. They attribute some of her high negative ratings to misperceptions about her past.

See, people? She's just like all those other grannies who've sold influence, taken bribes, viciously attacked her hubby's paramours, raked in millions in speaking fees, callously left four Americans to die, destabilized the ME, and cozied up to America's enemies.

[Threadkiller]

Uh huh.

So there is no breakdown of how many of the 1000 were black?

Do they breakdown how many of the phone answers were voters? If not how do we reverse engineer for something favorable to your position?

[Marlene]

Howie Carr is interviewing Milo Yianapoulos. He said a favored group of the Left was attacked and killed,but it doesn't matter. The Left loves Islam more.

[Marlene]

Yiannapoulos. I knew I spelled it wrong! He is really interesting and provocative. I hope he has security.

[Theo]

TK --

I am certainly not aware of how many of the respondents were black. Perhaps the pollster or ABC published that information but I don't know.

In terms of how many were "voters" I would give the same answer, but would add that no one is a "voter" in the 2016 general election in June. There may be some information about how many of the respondents are registered to vote. Closer to the election the pollsters will add a "likely voter" screen but I do not believe that this was done here.

Your comment about "reverse engineering" is incomprehensible. I did not do any reverse engineering on the ABC poll (or any other poll). I just reported the results. I think data like such polls are useful but not necessarily gospel I would give far more weight to such a poll (from a reputable pollster) than someone's gut instinct or anecdotal reporting, most particularly when that person's gut or anecdotes cuts in favor of what the person would like to be true.

[pagar a bacon, country ham and sausage supporter]

Wait-Wait-It may be a clue.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-16/cia-director-warns-islamic-state-militants-are-coming-smuggled-refugees

Could it be?

[DebinNC]

Truth is stranger than fiction is today's installment of the Freddie Gray LE witch hunt trial in Baltimore. Imagine a black female lead detective in the FG investigation on the stand telling the prosecutor that the ME lied under oath last week about never calling FG's death a "freakish" accident, the prosecutor angrily replying "Oh yeah? Who else supposedly heard the ME say that...huh?!?huh?!, whereupon the black female lead detective rattles off a list of upper level officers, including the current police chief appointed by the racist mayor after FG's death, in the room listening to the ME at the time.

[lyle]

http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/251896/problem-countering-violent-extremism-daniel-greenfield

CVE tells us that the best way to fight violent extremists is with “non violent extremist” Salafi clergy who have the most influence on them. We’re supposed to fight the ISIS Caliphate with supporters of another kind of Caliphate.

What it really comes down to is paying Muslims to argue with other Muslims on social media. And hope that the Muslims we’re paying to do the arguing are the good kind of extremists, like the Muslim Brotherhood, and not the bad kind of extremists, like ISIS. Even though they’re both vicious killers.

Good little boy Ryan is all for funding this to the tune of $40 mil. If that doesn't burnish his conservative bona fides, what will, you wingnutz?

[Threadkiller]

This Washington Post-ABC News poll by telephone June 8-12, 2016 among a random national sample of 1,000 adults,

Then:
This would imply that the number of black respondents would be about 120.
Then:
 I did not do any reverse engineering on the ABC poll 

Got it.

[Theo]

TK --

You are welcome.

[Threadkiller]

Great! Now about those non-voter numbers.

What do you reckon their percentage of the 1000 to be?

Don't worry about showing your work.

[lyle]

Because I'm feeling generous today, you get a twofer:

http://thepeoplescube.com/peoples-blog/trump-limit-immigration-deport-alligator-americans-t18060.html

http://thepeoplescube.com/peoples-blog/obama-identifies-second-suspect-in-orlando-shooting-t18059.html

Don't miss!

[lyle]

Hey, here's another thing you may not know about Grannie:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/06/16/ex-cia-officer-facing-jail-in-italy-claims-clinton-state-dept-ignored-her-pleas.html?intcmp=hpbt1

De Sousa has launched numerous unsuccessful bids over the years to clear her name, but has received little known help from the government she served for more than a decade.

If she’s sent to prison, she would become the first CIA officer and U.S. diplomat imprisoned over the controversial rendition program.

How can you not vote for such a lovable, genteel old grannie?

[Threadkiller]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Thinkers4Bernie/status/743432951380254721?p=v

Too vast for my blood. I have it on good authority the media was completely trustworthy when Savanah Guthrie was the only reporter to touch the purported birth certificate after the "no cameras, no recording devices" press gaggle.

Fingerprints...

[Theo]

TK --

I am not sure, but I think that the voting age population is about 235 million. I have seen some numbers suggesting that there are about 146 million registered voters and we know that there were 126 million votes cast in 2012.

If this was truly a random sample and if those numbers are accurate, you can work out the math yourself.

I assume that you are attempting to cast some doubt on the poll. Again, I think that the difference between adults/registered/likely is important if you are trying to forecast a relatively close election. But I think that this poll (again assuming that it was competently and honestly conducted and reported) shows that Trump is viewed unfavorably by most Americans at this point in time and most particularly by black Americans.

[lyle]

Shocker. Preening little pussy-boy misrepresented lied about what the gun shop owner said when pussy-boy visited the shop to shoot an AR-15:

https://pjmedia.com/trending/2016/06/16/ny-daily-news-writer-misrepresents-his-visit-to-gun-shop/2/

More than a few readers pushed back on this twit and like all pusillanimous, lying pussies, he now claims his 1A rights are being trampled on.

[new lurker]

I agree with Clarice--look at avatar and if it's Theo cruise on by. Really helps my blood pressure.

[Threadkiller]

So the percentage you previously to give the shock and awe hatred of Trump, by black America, was a flawed value, which you are now admitting.

Why didn't you preface that when you went all in?

Now that we boil down your sources, you are more about what is trending.

Did the pollsters hang up on, or exclude the data from, any phone answers whose "I feel like" demographic caused a specific group to be over represented?

For instance, once they hit the right amout of self-identified blacks, to match the nation's percentage of blacks, did they discard the info from any later calls to people who claimed to be black?

Or was it truly 1000 random calls?

[Threadkiller]

I'll stop playing with him, new lurker.

His latest revelations hopefully will make him more cautious with future bogus poll posts.

[Threadkiller]

...previously used...

[Jack is Back!]

As a frequent shopper at ASDA when living in England and knowing their prior management, it would not surprise me that they found a way to spike that bottle of cheap Malbec. I think this is another urban myth that needs serious rebuttal.

First, a Malbec isn't even comprobable to a California Cab, Burgandy Pinot or a Bourdeaux Merlot. Not in a million years. It wouldn't suprise me that before they tasted all the other 16K wines they ate a box of "Sweet Tarts" first.

Next year's winner is pegged to be Mogen David.

[lyle]

I keep saying satire is dead but this guy serves up a masterpiece:

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/06/we_are_coming_for_your_guns_liberals_and_the_orlando_jihad_murders.html

I appeal to the wisest minds of our time:

Rolling Stone called the Second Amendment outdated and petitioned for its repeal. And who understands being outdated more than Rolling Stone?

Middle-aged Canadian TV person Samantha Bee discharged an emotional outburst. Internet headlines called it blistering, and I'm not going to argue.

Somebody else said, "[We] must command all the guns. That way, no guns can ever be used to command the party." Okay, it was Mao, but it sounds as though he was onto something.

There' much more.

[MaryD]

Mogan David...LOL Jack!

[lyle]

First, a Malbec isn't even comprobable to a California Cab, Burgandy Pinot or a Bourdeaux Merlot.

I was hoping you'd weigh in on that, Jack. Nor is it comparable to a Tuscan Brunello or a Piedmont Barolo, I might add.

[Miss Marple 2]

Obama on pushing lone wolf attacks in the "mind of a disturbed person."

Also using "powerful assault rifle."

Motives different from Aurora, but weapon was the same.

He's going for gun grabbing.

[lyle]

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/06/after_correcting_for_bias_clintons_national_lead_in_cbs_news_poll_evaporates.html

GIGO

[jimmyk on iPhone]

Reposted to the new thread:

Can anyone explain how this Democrat filibuster could induce Republicans to bring gun control up for a vote? Why couldn't the Republicans just let him continue forever? Aren't filibusters normally to prevent votes rather than force them? Or is this just the usual Party of Stupid falling for Democrat tricks again?

[boatbuilder]

Am I the only one cynical enough to believe that the recent revelation by the DNC regarding the "hacking" of the DNC's "oppo research" on Trump is just a ploy to release a whole lot of toxic lies and half-truths into the conversation under the guise of "hacked" opposition research, with the Dems claiming they weren't going to release the stuff because they couldn't verify it and thought it was not appropriate to subject the electorate to it? Bingo it's out there and the Dems hands are clean.

[Dave (in MA)]

Yiannapoulos. I knew I spelled it wrong! He is really interesting and provocative. I hope he has security.

http://www2.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Milo+Yiannopoulos+Orlando+Continues+Mourn+v_5ixlrBviJl.jpg

I'm guessing the suits & shades guys are packing.

[Skoot]

Dem's got a fever, and the only cure is moar gun control!

But don't worry, the turtle is on the job.

[lyle]

Or is this just the usual Party of Stupid falling for Democrat tricks again?

Not this time, nosirree. Nope, we're not falling for that again. We've seen this act before. Never again.

[Party of Stupid huddles]

Okay, no harm in one little vote...

[Threadkiller]

You are not alone, bb.

[jimmyk on iPhone]

Lyle, it seems like a case of the Dems doing a Cleavon Little, "Don't shoot or the n**** gets it!" And the Rs are the ladies who gasp and say "We've got to do something!"

[Jack is Back!]

What a pussilaminous c**ksucker we have for a President. No one will ever call him on his purposeful lies, misrepresented facts and faulty logic. And there are those worried about Trump having the codes to the suitcase? We have already passed that threshold of incompetence in charge.

[Dave (in MA)]

http://www.mediaite.com/online/vox-writer-president-should-unilaterally-ban-everyone-from-buying-guns/ Pajama Boy with worse hygiene thinks Okeedoke should ban all guns.

[DebinNC]

lol, jimmyk

[jimmyk on iPhone]

So there are ghouls down under too:

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-15/babies-of-late-terminations-left-to-die-without-care/7512618

[Old Lurker]

I told you the Beatles were right that nothing is real:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/06/16/obama-administration-massively-revise-gdp-downward/

[Threadkiller]

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/06/16/donald-trump-recognizes-one-year-anniversary-of-campaign/

#ThanksTrump

[Theo]

TK --

You wrote:

"So the percentage you previously to give the shock and awe hatred of Trump, by black America, was a flawed value, which you are now admitting.

Why didn't you preface that when you went all in?

Now that we boil down your sources, you are more about what is trending.

Did the pollsters hang up on, or exclude the data from, any phone answers whose "I feel like" demographic caused a specific group to be over represented?

For instance, once they hit the right amout of self-identified blacks, to match the nation's percentage of blacks, did they discard the info from any later calls to people who claimed to be black?

Or was it truly 1000 random calls?"

Let me first try to answer the questions and then deal with the nonsense.

I did not conduct the poll. I do not know exactly how it was done. I believe the pollster is reputable. I believe that the calls were truly random. I am not certain, but I believe that pollsters will not hang up on anyone -- they have a hard time getting responses -- but sometimes they will "weight" subgroups. I don't know if that was done here.

You appear to be suggesting that somehow I misrepresented this poll. I did not. I assumed, perhaps mistakenly in your case, an audience reasonably knowledgeable about polling so that it would not be necessary to post a page and a half of disclaimers and caveats.

You also seem to be desperate in your attempt to deny the results of this poll as it relates to black Americans. A small degree of caution about ANY poll is warranted. This is only one poll. It is always a good idea to look at other polls before drawing any strong conclusion.

But with that caution in mind, this poll represents a reasonably valid data point that on the whole black Americans are not favorably disposed towards Trump. Is the percentage of blacks who have an unfavorable view of Trump precisely 90.00000000000%? Almost certainly not. No poll is a precision instrument. This one for that subgroup probably has a fairly significant margin of error.

BUT you really need to come to grips with the reality that Trump is NOT beloved by black Americans. Unless (and this is very unlikely) this poll is a total fraud or off the charts incompetently done, it is a very strong piece of evidence that a strong majority of blacks do not think well of Trump.

If you are going to shoot the messenger, shoot the pollster. But the kind of nonsensical responses you are making to a poll whose results you do not like are an indication of an inability or unwillingness to deal with reality.

[Threadkiller]

A GDP exit poll...

[Threadkiller]

I thought you said you were going to start by answering my questions.

[Dave (in MA)]

S.S. Lurch for sale.

Kerry and the missus, ketchup heiress 
Teresa Heinz, listed the New Zealand-built Friendship sloop for a mere 
$4 million with luxury yacht brokers Northrop & Johnson in Newport, R.I. — some $3 million less than they paid for it back in 2010.

“Boats do depreciate very, very quickly,” said a source with knowledge of the sale.

At that much of a discount, maybe the sale of the boat will be swift.

[matt]

Things you didn't know about Hillary.

That is because that you were taken in by that verdammte Trumpf propaganda! Such filthy lies! They told lies! But nobody ever said a bad word about Trumpf, did they? No! 'Win with Trumpf!' Trumpf! With his cigars. With his hot wife. And his rotten painting, rotten! Clinton - there is a painter! She can paint an entire apartment in one afternoon! Two Coats! Trumpf. He couldn't even say 'Nazi'. He would say 'Noooo-zeeehz, Nooooooooooooo-zeeehz!' It wasn't Noses! It was Nazis! Trumpf!...Let me tell you this! And you're hearing this straight from the horse. Hillary iss better looking than Trumpf.She is a better dresser than Trumpf. She has more hair!She tells funnier jokes! And she can dance the pants off of Trumpf!

(almost lifted from the WaPo)

[Theo]

TK --

What question did I not answer?

[Theo]

matt --

VERY funny.

[Threadkiller]

Let's try the simplest one.

Did they stop calling after they received 1000 random responses?

[Lurker Susie]

Sorry for it being so long. Interesting read

June 16, 2016

Virginians Support Stronger Gun Measures; Clinton Has Narrow Lead

PPP's new Virginia poll, conducted entirely after Sunday's shooting in Orlando, finds broad support from voters in the state for a variety of gun control measures:

-88% of voters support background checks on all gun purchases, compared to only 8% who oppose them. That includes support from 93% of Democrats, 87% of independents, and 83% of Republicans.

-86% of voters support barring those on the Terrorist Watch list from buying guns, to only 7% who are opposed to taking that step. 89% of Democrats, 85% of Republicans, and 84% of independents support that change.

-55% of voters support banning assault weapons to only 33% opposed to such a ban. That is supported by Democrats (75/16) and independents (49/41), while Republicans (35/47) are against it.

The Presidential race in Virginia is pretty tight. Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 42-39, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 6% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2%. In a head to head contest Clinton's lead remains 3 points at 48/45. Clinton's benefiting from Democrats in Virginia (83/8) being more unified around her than Republicans (76/5) are around Trump. But with independents Trump's up 42/29.

A big part of that is Clinton still having some trouble getting Bernie Sanders fans to consolidate around her. Among Democrats or independents with a favorable opinion of Sanders she gets 68% to 8% for Trump, 7% for Johnson, 5% for Stein, and with 12% of voters undecided. If Clinton could get even half of those Sanders fans who are currently holding out right now to vote for her, her lead would expand from 3 points to 9.

One question that's already not close is whether Virginia would rather Barack Obama or Donald Trump was President- Obama wins out on that question 52/41, calling into question how bright of a political strategy it is for Trump to trash Obama all the time. Virginia makes another state where Trump is remarkably unpopular- only 32% of voters see him positively to 60% with a negative view.

Showing once again the impact that Trump's power of suggestion has on his fans, 18% of voters with a favorable opinion of Trump think Barack Obama might have been involved in the terrorist attack in Orlando on Monday, and another 23% of them say they aren't sure one way or another. Only 59% explicitly rule out Obama involvement. Of course to put the views of Trump fans in context, Robert E. Lee has a 65/7 favorability rating with them, compared to only 48/28 for Martin Luther King Jr. They say they have a higher opinion of Lee than King by a 44/31 spread, surely just another sign of the economic anxiety purportedly driving his support.
We did find one issue where voters side with Trump though. Only 36% think he should delete his Twitter account, compared to 42% who think he should keep it going.

Finally we tested a variety of running mates for Hillary Clinton...and found just how little running mates matter. In a hypothetical scenario where Elizabeth Warren is Clinton's running mate, she leads Trump 47/43. In a hypothetical scenario where Tim Kaine is Clinton's running mate, she leads Trump 47/43. And in a hypothetical scenario where Mark Warner is Clinton's running mate, she leads Trump...wait for it...47/43. The only slight deviation comes when we look at Jim Webb as a possible Trump running mate- in that hypothetical Clinton's lead over Trump expands to 6 points at 47/41, as voters evidently aren't big on the concept of him on the ticket.

Full results here

Posted by Tom Jensen at 10:16 AM in Barack Obama, Bernie Sanders, Blog, Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, Gary Johnson, Gun control, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Mark Warner, Polls, President 2016, Tim Kaine, Virginia | Permalink ShareThis
Reblog (0) Digg This Save to del.icio.us

[lyle]

Bingo it's out there and the Dems hands are clean.

I agree with your whole comment, boatbuilder, but who exactly would call them out on any dirty dealing. The MFM? Snort. The GOPe? Double snort.

[matt]

The propaganda machine is dialed up to 11. Apparently gays in LA are lining up to but firearms.

We have a couple of friends who are lesbian and they are way ahead of the power curve. Armed to the teeth including concealed carry. One of them is 5 foot nothing and loves her .44 with the 6" barrel.

The stats in Florida prove illuminating. As I recall, back in the 90's when the thugs were preying on tourists because rental plates were used there were a number of sensational murders.

Then, the state passed laws that both eliminated the special plates and allowed firearms to be loaded and in the glove compartment. The violent crime rate went way down.

Even in the face of the facts, the Left will misrepresent and miscategorize and lie in order to get the gullible to but their narrative.

I think it's time for all of us to buy another gun just to spite the bastids.

[RattlerGator]

Lurker Susie, here's the only thing of real import in that polling data to me:

But with independents Trump's up 42/29.

They've likely given Hillary a bit of a favorable polling mix but she's still down 13 among independents. There's no way she wins Virginia if that is even remotely accurate.

[Threadkiller]

Apparently gays in LA are lining up to butt firearms.

FTFY

[matt]

Every legal gun purchase requires a FBI background check. It can be done on line in a few minutes.

This is all smoke and mirrors to grab guns. Meaningful gun control might, just might, include a mental health database. People with severe schizophrenia of schizoaffective order should not be allowed near guns for their own safety and that of others. Those with severe depression at most at risk of suicide. There are some logical ideas that can perhaps be worked on.

[Theo]

TK --

Q. "Did they stop calling after they received 1000 random responses?"

A. "I did not conduct the poll. I do not know exactly how it was done."

Addendum -- I would assume but do not know that they stopped calling people after they got 1000 responses. I do not see any reason why they would keep calling and not report the additional calls. It costs them money to make calls and presumably they would want to get credit for having made them and therefore would have reported the results. But I don't know for sure. Ask them.

[lyle]

Per OL's 5:21:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-surrenders-1466032880

As recently as December, the FOMC members had a median growth estimate for 2016 of 2.4%. By March it had fallen to 2.2%, and on Wednesday it was down to 2%. This follows the Federal Reserve’s consistent record of forecasting error during this expansion in which it has begun every year predicting stronger growth than has always occurred.

Economic forecasting isn’t easy, but you could flip a coin and get it right more often than the Fed has since the recession ended seven long years ago this month. The indisputable fact is that the central bank has consistently overestimated the stimulative effect of its monetary exertions. The Fed keeps saying its policies are “accommodative,” and while they have contributed to higher prices in stocks, real estate and other assets, they aren’t accommodating faster growth or broader prosperity.

[snip]

The Keynesian economists who have run U.S. economic policy since 2008 are clearly stumped. First they said $800 billion in fiscal stimulus would stir a return to prosperity, then they said that monetary stimulus would do the trick. Now they blame their failure on “secular stagnation” and Republicans in Congress whose pro-growth proposals have been blocked at every turn by Senate Democrats and President Obama

Are they referring to some other Republicans that we're unaware of?

[Theo]

Lurker Susie --

Thanks for posting that. Among the interesting results are that 32% of those polled have a positive view of Trump, but 39% say that they would vote for him. Some of his potential votes are coming from people who do not think well of him. That is quite interesting.

[RattlerGator]

Lyle, it seems like a case of the Dems doing a Cleavon Little, "Don't shoot or the n**** gets it!" And the Rs are the ladies who gasp and say "We've got to do something!"
Posted by: jimmyk on iPhone | June 16, 2016 at 05:16 PM

I laughed my ass off at this, jimmyk -- thank you! But . . . we can't type "nigger" on this board? For realz ??? But, looking at your number of asterisks, it appears you engaged in the trick employed by the kids these days, didn't you my nigga?

[Threadkiller]

But I don't know for sure. Ask them.

So you have no idea who the talked to? Did you know that when you got all preachy?

Now:

 Is the percentage of blacks who have an unfavorable view of Trump precisely 90.00000000000%? Almost certainly not. No poll is a precision instrument. This one for that subgroup probably has a fairly significant margin of error.

Then:

The latest ABC/WashPost poll shows Rodham's net favorability rating at its lowest point since.....ever.[snip]

 HOWEVER, the results for Trump are even worse. Trump is now viewed favorably by 29% and unfavorably by SEVENTY PERCENT of respondents. He has a net negative favorability rating among every demographic group, including white men. He is viewed unfavorably by 59% of whites, 90% of blacks and 78% of Hispanics.

These are very unpopular candidates. But Trump is clearly the far less favorably viewed among the two of them.

http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2016/06/there-is-surely-some-news-out-there.html?cid=6a00d83451b2aa69e201b7c86e1dfc970b#comment-6a00d83451b2aa69e201b7c86e1dfc970b

A bold "HOWEVER" to boot.

"Clearly" you own the reverse engineering on this one, Theo. Step up, man.

[Skoot]

C'mon TK, my brutha, let it go, man. Now, you're just showing off :)

[Jack is Back!]

RT,

You can type nigger on this board but never type niggardly or you'll be sent to the language police.

[Threadkiller]

I once thought I was playing The Dozens with a poster named Chaco, RG.

He started with a yo' mama wears army boots, so I responded one level up.

I immediately found out that there are many limitations on this board well before my whitebread ass could ever say nigga...

So I don't.

[Threadkiller]

For you Skoot?

You got it!

;-)

[lyle]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-are-sometimes-collateral-damage-1466098940

Taranto knocks it out of the park with this one. NB: Make sure your BP meds are current. He quotes Jeffrey Goldberg (whom he amusingly calls Obama's Boswell) making this shocking claim:

The fundamental difference between Obama and Trump on issues related to Islamist extremism (apart from the obvious, such as that, unlike Trump, Obama a) has killed Islamist terrorists; b) regularly studies the problem and allows himself to be briefed by serious people about the problem; and c) is not racist or temperamentally unsuitable for national leadership) is that Trump apparently believes that two civilizations are in conflict. Obama believes that the clash is taking place within a single civilization, and that Americans are sometimes collateral damage in this fight between Muslim modernizers and Muslim fundamentalists.

JT goes on to show that even with this shocking claim, it's still a misuse of the term:

In order for the victims of the Orlando attack to have been “collateral damage,” the scenario would have to be something like this: A soldier of the Muslim Fundamentalist Army plans an attack on the Muslim Modernizers Army’s fuel depot, which for some reason is in Central Florida. He gets the address wrong and goes to the gay nightclub across the street instead, where he shoots everyone in sight before realizing his mistake.

That is not even close to what happened. There is no Muslim Modernizers Army, and across the street from the nightclub is a Dunkin’ Donuts, not a military fuel depot. The Orlando victims weren’t “collateral damage,” they were the intended target.

[redacted] [redacted]

[Theo]

TK --

It is hard to deal with such lack of reality.

I dispute that I was "preachy." I reported a poll and commented on its findings. As I said, I assumed (obviously incorrectly in your case) that the audience had minimal enough understanding of polling so that I did not have to type a long list of caveats and disclaimers, because the readers understood what a poll is and how it works. I never suggested that this or any poll was a precision instrument. I have said that they are not numerous times on this very site.

OF COURSE I do not know the names or addresses or heights or weights or shoe sizes of who they talked to. You cannot believe that I did. It's a nationwide random call poll. If you do not understand how that works, ask someone.

There is absolutely no tension, much less contradiction, between the "NOW" section of your quote and the "THEN" section of your quote. The only difference is that I responded to some of your inquiries by giving you a bit more polling 101 than I thought would have been required at the time of my initial post.

The "bold" HOWEVER was to separate the fact that the poll found Rodham to be unpopular from the fact that it found Trump to be even more unpopular. In writing, this is called "transition." I have no idea what sinister motivation you attach to the fact that I used the word "however" when switching from one part of the results to the other or the fact that I capitalized it.

I have no idea what you mean by "reverse engineering." I don't believe that I did any such thing.

Again, I think you just don't like the results of this poll and are desperate to try to invalidate it. But that will do you no good. If this poll is flawed or a hoax or an outlier, later polls will reveal that and this poll will be meaningless. If other polls show the same or similar results, you will be unable to invalidate them all and will have to live with the fact that Trump is not popular with black Americans generally.

[henry]

Wait.... In a poorly written article linked above

Obama was getting grief for 1.55% growth over his time in office (4th worst ever).

Commerce will revise growth down 2% over his term.

Unstated, but simple arithmetic implies new Obama growth is -0.45% (now 3rd worst).

Also hidden is a lie that 2012-13 had growth -- it was a recession. Election impact from this lie???

[Threadkiller]

SEVENTY PERCENT

[lyle]

I forgot to point out the sheer bizarro bullshit from Zippy in claiming that there exists these "Muslim modernizers."

[Threadkiller]

"Muslim modernizers" sounds like a weapon.

[lyle]

I agree, jimmyk. That Breibart article was extremely poorly written.

[lyle]

Good one, TK!

[Captain Hate]

Zippy not letting a crisis go to waste

http://www.weaselzippers.us/277866-obama-in-orlando-if-gop-refuses-to-pass-more-gun-control-laws-we-will-keep-seeing-massacres-like-this/#disqus_thread

[Threadkiller]

http://www.thepostemail.com/2016/06/16/bill-oreilly-obama-angry-at-trump-over-birther-issue/

Why? Obama won that battle.

[Miss Marple 2]

I told you guys when I posted what he said that he was going to try a gun grab.

I am hopeful that we can head them off at the pass.

Trump is in Dallas tonight. I will monitor the live feed and report whatever he says about this issue.

[Miss Marple 2]

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/06/16/virginia-polls-and-the-battle-to-put-america-first/#more-117587

Interesting discussion of polling.

Also, the explanation why he continues to hold rallies rather than retreating to his Manhattan penthouse for some R & R.

[henry]

Hopefully "if Crooked Hillary keeps up Zaphod's immigration policy, we'll see much worse than Orlando last weekend."

[Beasts of England]

I was going to weigh in on Malbec as a pure varietal, but didn't want to be called a wine snob... :)

[Threadkiller]

Any Texas JOMers going to the rally?

[Beasts of England]

Dang it, lyle, just because Ryan funded $40M for a study that declared right wing Christians as, or more, dangerous than Islamic terrorism doesn't mean he's not a fine conservative!! How dare you!

[Threadkiller]

Ryan's spine is just fine.

[Miss Marple 2]

http://www.thewrap.com/fox-news-bill-hemmer-orlando-shooting/

"Unusual lack of tranasparency from law enforcement."

Hmmmm.

Well, we have complaints made about the shooter from co-workers, Disney, and a gun store. What was the result of those complaints?

[Beasts of England]

This is a serious comment. You have to admire, from a raw political perspective, the extraordinary messaging and cohesiveness from the left. Here's an event of blue-on-blue terror - a Muslim kills ~50 gays. Obama's FBI dropped the ball. His other agencies failed. Was there a moment of reflection about their ideas or policies being at fault? Are you kidding me? Not for one minute. Instead, they:

- blame guns
- blame gay marriage opposition
- blame the NRA
- blame Republicans for not passing gun laws
- accuse Reps of politicizing the event
- introduce gun control legislation
- demand it pass or take blame for future gun crime

It beats all I've ever seen. They lost this one - straight up. It plays right into the hands of one of Trump's biggest themes. So the Dems take the lead and the Reps start fretting about something Trump may have said that was mean to Obama.

But I'm not upset about it. No prob...

[Miss Marple 2]

Beasts,

It's amazing to me that either they cannot see it, or they do see it and are actively working against Trump and the American people.

I swear to God I will vote for Trump if I have to dodge sniper bullets.

[Rocco]

His and Her impeachments, that's the legacy I'm hoping for.

[squaredance]

BoE: Only if trump can get out in front of it.

I fear they are turning the tide on the PR battle.

I agree though that it is amazing how they can crank this out. If they have ever been caught with their pants down, this is it.

Sadly, there is a huge percentage of people that believe their nonsense.

Two things that really stand out: 1) it openly shows that they are just using the gays as just another front, and really could care less about them; and 2) Their so called "gun violence" is due mostly to their corrupt inner city political machines, just look at Chicago. And on top of it most of those people shooting up the cities are doing with illegal guns.

People like Ryan and McTurtle should be out there shouting this stuff.

It is wholly at odds with the facts, but we seem to have passed any point of rational discussion.

What is shameful though is the GOPe giving them an option here. This is truly dangerous and on so many levels. Just agreeing to vote will cost them Senate seats.

What hideous people we have ruling over us. It is so shameful and embarrassing.

[jimmyk]

But . . . we can't type "nigger" on this board? For realz ???

You can, RG, but I can't. Seriously, I thought it might spook Typhuspad into sending my post into the "naughty bin."

[Beasts of England]

Okay, my last line was snark. :)

[GUS]

That Theo, he's a nice fella!!

[Beasts of England]

Exactly, Miss Marple.

A vote would be horrific, squaredance, as it would admit that the Dems are right and guns are the underlying issue. Trump is doing all he can with the GOPe holding on to his ankles and trying to drag him under, but he's a fighter of the highest caliber. I'm excited to see him continuing an aggressive schedule of rallies. Those get his message out like nothing else.

[cheerleader]

TCT Dallas Rally thread

Sundance:

"*Note* YouTube has begun doing sketchy things with Trump videos and feeds in what appears to be a concerted effort to shut down his voice and diminish supporters."

A Comment
"RSBN is under attack by a UK based outfit, Brave Bison, formerly Rightster. They keep claiming “copyright” violation on the videos that RSBN produces."

[Jack is Back!]

Ya, think Trump is ahead of the curve and has already had preliminary discussions with the NRA to give a little on "no fly" or "under FBI investigation" or some hybrid? They agree, GOP offers a compromise in the Senate and Trump gets the credit .

See I can lead and no one gets hurt but we protect the homeland. Now about that limitation on Muslim immigrants.