Poll "Shockers"

Trump ahead in key swing states (are there any other kind)?:

Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states

By Steven Shepard and Nick Gass

07/13/16 06:00 AM EDT  Updated 07/13/16 09:41 AM EDT

Did Donald Trump really just surge past Hillary Clinton in two of the election's most important battlegrounds?

New swing-state polls released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University show Trump leading Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania — and tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio. In three of the states that matter most in November, the surveys point to a race much closer than the national polls, which have Clinton pegged to a significant, mid-single-digit advantage over Trump, suggest.

Let me under-think and over-simplify this: Is it reasonable to suggest we are looking at a "Change versus More of the Same" election, to borrow the Clinton/Carville '92 formulation? Subtle global hints such as Brexit or, I don't know, Trump's coup of the Republican Party and the prolonged Bernie Who insurgency suggest it might be.

And (the questions will get progressively more difficult), of the Trump/Clinton choice, who represents change and who represents a continuation of the Chamber of Commerce Democratic/Republican Beltway coalition that has alienated and impoverished Middle America with trade deals and uncontrolled immigration for the last few decades? Hmm, there might be a slight residual pollster bias in that question.

Hillary and her supporters want to pretend that electing a woman to continue the corporatist/statist regime of the last few decades represents "change". Please. She is the "More of the Same" candidate.

And how has "More of the Same" been working out in the last few weeks? Not so well.

 

Comments

[Dave (in MA)]

I'm more excited about Hilligula being behind than I am about Trump being ahead, but that's just me.

[Frau Nie Wieder Clinton]

Dave (in MA) - Hillary! is "leading from behind."

I hope all lamps are kept at a distance.

[maryrose]

Dave
I feel the same.
Unimpressed so far with possible VP for Trump.

[Thomas Collins]

Has anyone looked at how Reuters Rolling weights its raw results? RR continues to be an outlier. In any event, this makes it harder for The Cabal to effect The Coup in Cleveland.

[Captain Hate]

Uncle Jack is just not very popular and Sergeant Schultz Comey and LoLy can't do anything to change that.

[matt]

From what I read in the papers, Trump is in trouble. He doesn't have Hillary's billions and every right minded thinker in the country is agin' him.

He has stumbled time and again and even Stanley McChrystal has ruled himself out of contention for the VP slot. RBG has threatened to leave the country and I'm sure the Wise Latina and the Fireplug are equally upset albeit more discreet. Breyer may have to issue a ruling from the bench, for goodness sake if this continues.

I just cannot explain these polls. I feel a bout of the vapors coming on.

[Thomas Collins]

In any event, my new slogan is Garops For Four Games and The Donald For Four Years!

http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/07/13/tom-brady-suspended-deflategate-appeal-supreme-court

[buccaneer morgan]

Rosa klebb seems to be her wardrobe selector, they've been doing a Bond marathon,

[maryrose]

Frau:
Love your comment.
I think she has inherited the Merde Touch of Obama.
As we speak her lawyers are trying t get her out of a under deposition by Judicial Watch.
Should t there be a limit on how many congressional hearings and court cases a potential president endures before people wake up and say this person is not qualified for the highest in the land?

[maryrose]

TC
The comments supporting Brady and encouraging him to go to the SC are few and far between.
I think your slogan is a good one.

[maryrose]

Should be under oath

[maryrose]

Matt:
Trump is ahead of Hillary after she spent 57 million on ads against him.
Trump spent 3million and I think will be ok in the money area.
Clinton blows through cash and doesn't pay bills.
She is careless as is Bill with other people's money
They really are Tom and Daisy Buchanan of this era.

[Thomas Collins]

I'm at the point, maryrose, that I am looking forward to seeing whether Garoppolo is a plausible successor to Brady. It's nice that people think Garops does well in practice and exhibition games. Let's see him perform in four real games.

[maryrose]

Hillary taking a direct hit from lying to the American people.

[Thomas Collins]

Besides, what a great scenario if Brady sits for four, Pats win Super Bowl, and Brady is on the podium on the field with Goodell!

[maryrose]

TC
I think he has a promising future.
I am not one to put all my eggs in one basket.

[buccaneer morgan]

my battle is with team Ming, I mean Goodell, fine let garoppolo start, maybe he'll excite like manziel,

[maryrose]

Trump considered more honest and trustworthy than Hillary in 3 critical swing states.
She dropped by 6 points.

[maryrose]

Buccaneer:
Manziel in Cleveland is like Voldemort.
We no longer speak his name.

[Frau Nie Wieder Clinton]

This is not the people's business. It's apparent they work willingly for Daddy Soros.

Democratic senators have been assigned conservative nonprofit groups to call out by name on the chamber floor in speeches on Monday and Tuesday criticizing corporations and advocacy groups for opposing Democratic climate policies, internal emails reveal.

Nineteen Senate Democrats will attack specific organizations in what they are calling a “web of denial,” according to a schedule of floor speeches circulated by Emily Enderle, a top environmental policy adviser to Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D., R.I.), who is spearheading the effort.

Poor little Rhode Island...

[rich]

more like Steyer and the AFL-CIO ... but it is really Hydra.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Clinton blows through cash...--

The old yak is actually spending money here in CA in July on these gag inducing black and white commercials saying, as best I can tell in the brief period I scramble to find the remote, that Hillary does everything for the little children.
I have to figure virtually everyone with > two brain cells has the same visceral reaction that I do that she resembles nothing more than the old witch in the woods pinching their cheeks to see if they'll need any fattening up before popping them in the oven.

Regardless what possible sense does it make to waste money now, here?

[Frau Nie Wieder Clinton]

Why are we the only ones aware of this?

(Harvard professor)Mr. Fryer, who is black, told The New York Times that the finding of no racial discrimination in police shootings was “the most surprising result of my career.”

Will Pres. Blech give Prof. Fryer "The Talk"?

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Props for not confirming his bias.
Poops for assuming his bias in the first place.

[Frau Nie Wieder Clinton]

Iggy, it's to make sure the useful idjits stagger to the polls in November.

The Republicans may have the words "liberty" and "freedom" but you'll have to pry the words "for the chirren" from the Dems' grasping, grubbing hands. What else do they have?

[rich]

wonder when this one is going to be re-cut

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDTBnsqxZ3k

[Theo]

If the Republicans had any kind of a decent candidate, they would win the White House in a walk. She is a terrible candidate running as "more of the same" in a year when the country is hungry for a change.

Of course, this was pointed out to the primary voters before this and they went ahead and did what they did. Too late to change that now.

Can this goofball win? Maybe even he has a chance given how terrible a candidate she continues to be.

Heaven help us all.

[JM Hanes]

Frau:

Democratic senators have been assigned conservative nonprofit groups to call out by name on the chamber floor....

LOL! Apparently they figured out that inciting State AG's to prosecute such folks may have some unpleasant legal/constitutional repercussions, when folks started to sue them for it. So now they're taking refuge on the Senate floor, where, as we know, folks can lie to their unfettered hearts' content.

[Momto2]

This contrast is stark and embarrassing: (but we know O. has no shame!)

https://www.facebook.com/TheComicalConservative/videos/891711804295332/

[Miss Marple 2]

And, right on time, Theo shows up with his Eeyore-like take on things, right when everyone is cheerful about the polls.

[Beasts of England]

Sorry that the primary voters didn't bend to the wishes of their betters, Theo. No wonder Trump is the nominee...

[rich]

Theo-

if any of the other 16 candidates were "decent" then why did Trump stomp on them all ...

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Hillary and her supporters want to pretend that electing a woman to continue the corporatist/statist regime of the last few decades represents "change".--

Does it count as the first woman president if she has hairy pits, curses like a sailor, throws lamps like Sandy Koufax and enjoys steaming carpets more than the Rug Doctor; especially if her predecessor cringes like a little girl, throws like Grandma Moses, wears his mommy's jeans on his little pink bike and whose favorite treat plumps when you cook it?

[Jack is Back! (As Mr. Fixit)]

Progress report:

It took me all of 40 minutes and 35 specific steps to disassemble Frederick's 11" MacBook Air. Having the proper tool kit from IFIXIT plus the magnetic flex white board for keep parts in order really helps. There are some ingenious electronic details and especially the mother board layout.

Now I will await Master Frederick's return from Camp on Saturday so he can work with me to see how we can fix the darn thing now that it is pieces. Looks to be a connectivity issue with the board cable to the display unit. That and fixing up the hinges.

[Thomas Collins]

C'mon, Ignatz, give her some credit. She can make long lost billing records appear out of nowhere, apparently ran an email system with more private servers than a landed aristocrat has butlers, and has done more listening tours than Mick Jagger has done rock tours!

[Captain Hate]

So now they're taking refuge on the Senate floor, where, as we know, folks can lie to their unfettered hearts' content.

That's a good point since the Searchlight exercise band warrior regularly makes unhinged comments there with no repercussions other than parents hiding their children.

[derwill]

Yes, Theo, the voters are hungry for change--that is why they voted for Trump. Duh!

[James D]

Of course, this was pointed out to the primary voters before this and they went ahead and did what they did. Too late to change that now.

It was pointed out to the other candidates and the GOP leadership early last fall that GOP primary voters were very upset about immigration, among other issues Trump was campaigning on, and VERY angry at DC business as usual, and none of them listened.

It was pointed out to the Nevertrump whiners as early as December that they ought to come together behind a single anti-Trump candidate, so that the votes of those who weren't supporting Trump wouldn't be split several ways (thus ensuring Trump's victories in so many primaries), and none of them listened.

I could go on, but you know all this and you never, ever respond to it, nor do any of the folks who remain vocally NeverTrump.

I am very, very tired of hearing from the people who had 56% of the GOP primary voters, the full support of nearly all the party's institutional and "intellectual" leadership, and over $600 million, and still could not beat a political newcomer who had a skeleton staff, virtually no formal party support, 1/10 the money of his opponents, and only 44% of the party's voters.

You want to keep complaining about Trump being the nominee? You want to blame somebody? Look in the (REDACTED) mirror, OK?

[Barry]

"If the Republicans had any kind of a decent candidate, they would win the White House in a walk."

Theo, like Romney?

Perhaps the best candidate the republicans have had since Reagan is Trump. Certainly is in my book.

[_peter usually a lurker now]

jack, I hope you have more luck than when i tried to change the battery in my wife's i-pod. It sort of worked afterward, but not really.

[daddy]

Charles Payne having a nice chat with Nigel Farage on this day when Cameron leaves and Teresa May takes over as Britain's next Prime Minister. Nigel makes the point that the first Prime minister that had an audience with this current Queen was Winston Churchill.

Nigel says he will be at the RNC Convention next week, but doesn't know if he will be asked to give a speech. He also mentions that he is a good friend of Jeff Sessions. Very impressive.

Top o' the morning!

[rse]

This is truly shocking and a very influential ed site. https://www.edsurge.com/news/2016-07-13-a-commitment-to-confronting-our-bias-and-privileges

There is no mention of dallas at all. It's merely about confronting what could lead to all these black 'shootings' with nary a word that being poor behavior prone and arrested repeatedly might also be influential.

We said it would go away quickly, but not like this. I have a new post up that this seems to prove right.

[lyle]

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/07/11/republicans-helped-create-the-pension-crisis/

Of course they did. Because they're a vital part of the Uniparty.©

[Captain Hate]

One of the most frustrating things about Kristol is that the Weekly Standard has long lambasted the GOPe for failing to deliver on their campaign promises and now after the three strikes of not pushing back against Zippy following 2010, 2012 and 2014, the voters want a non-establishment candidate. Why are you not understanding this, Bill?

[Porchlight]

It was foretold that Theo would jump immediately from "Oh no, he can't win" to "Oh no, he might win!"

The NeverTrumpers still can't decide on a narrative, which is a shame for them, because narrative is all they have.

[Porchlight]

I hear that Farage and Geert Wilders are attending the RNC. Airhorn!

[Miss Marple 2]

daddy,

Thanks for the report on Farage, who is one of my favorite politicians. He has a great sense of humor and fearlessly allows himself to be photographed with an ale in one hand and a cigarette in the other.

OMG! Hillary is in Springfield, Illinois talking about race relations and using her "kindergarten teacher talking to dumb students" voice.

[Frau Nie Wieder Clinton]

Iggz sez: "... she (the sea hag) resembles nothing more than the old witch in the woods pinching their cheeks to see if they'll need any fattening up before popping them in the oven."

I now give myself a timeout...

[Porchlight]

Hillary fundraising campaign getting desperate:

http://i.4cdn.org/pol/1468428217774.png

Seems as if the fact that Trump raised $3m in May and $50m in June has them a bit spooked.

[Miss Marple 2]

Hillary is telling us to listen to each other.

Especially the victims of police officers.

She's listing a bunch of victims.

[Miss Marple 2]

Now she is talking about police dead, and listing officers killed in Dallas.

Threading the needle with trying to get both sides to feel like they are supported.

[maryrose]

Daddy
Imagine Winston Churchill.
Does any other country in the world have a monarch that has lasted this long?
Maybe we should go back to the parliamentary system.

[Old Lurker]

"Clinton blows"

Words which should not be used together.

[squaredance]

MM: You must have the constitution of an aircraft carrier. I do not know how you can bear to listen to her.

[DebinNC]

and now after the three strikes of not pushing back against Zippy following 2010, 2012 and 2014

News today that the OR BOzocare exchange went belly-up, joining many others. Instead of Ryan and McConnell directing their troops to remind voters of that 100% Dem albatross 24/7, we get self-righteous hectoring re "respecting all views".

[rse]

And another https://www.edsurge.com/news/2016-07-11-my-white-boss-talked-about-race-in-america-and-this-is-what-happened

Dallas never happened. I don't want to hear people guided by fictions and lies telling me I need to feel their pain and change me.

[squaredance]

Ask her if we can just email each other.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Excellent reminder of just how disgustingly crooked Hillary and her maggoty mouthpieces are.
Kendall ought to be in jail alongside BillyJeff and The Lady of the Flies.

[maryrose]

Porch:
Absolutely correct.
Bill in Alabama today looking for mo money.
And the presidency for Hillary starts to slip away..

[Captain Hate]

OMG! Hillary is in Springfield, Illinois talking about race relations and using her "kindergarten teacher talking to dumb students" voice.

She is so tone deaf, which is part of the reason Tammy refers to her as Uncle Jack, a weird relative who shows up at family gatherings and mutters strangely while frightening the children.

[maryrose]

OL
That post cracked me up but describes Hildebeast to a T.

[daddy]

FOX playing Teresa May's live speech. I think in the background I can hear protesters hollering unified chants, just a bit too far away to pick up whatever they are shrieking about.

Teresa May sounds very much like a Democrat. Praises Cameron for Same Sex Marriage and for some increases in the Welfare system. Wants to close the pay gap between workers and bosses.

Quick and dirty speech, and Charles Payne does a good wrap-up of it.

[Frau Nie Wieder Clinton]

...a short timeout.

JMH - the *good* thing is that at present there is never anyone to listen to the speaker in the Senate or the House except the poor pages and the designated person with the gavel who must hope it works off some time in purgatory.

I feel strongly that when someone in Congress speaks, the rest of the band of merry men and women and other-identifying beings should *have* to listen. Speaking to an empty room is stoooooopid.
Unfortunately, at the end of the day, it's who we are as a country.
...ducking and running.

[maryrose]

DebinNC
Obamacare imploding just in time for the election is Obama's bad karma coming home to bite him in the butt.
Any legislation rammed through will claim many victims and I hope the people paying higher premiums realize who brought this mess upon them.
Good issue for Trump to elaborate.
Heard him talking about the pledge today.
Doesn't move the ball forward.

[Miss Marple 2]

Oh, Hillary now is telling us Donald Trump scares children and is a fear-monger because he says without curbing immigration we won't have a country any more.

She says she doesn't even know what that means.

I have to tell you, this is such an annoying speech that I cannot think that she is doing herself any good.

Now she is bringing up the mexican judge thing and accuses TRUMP of sowing racial division.

I am pretty sure those high Hispanic numbers for Trump has them spooked.

[Captain Hate]

David Kendall is another lowlife trained liar specializing in keeping the crime family from being incarcerated.

[cheerleader]

Matt is clearly getting all his infor from the Hillary propaganda press, about Trump's stumbles and all that bs.

When did Trump ever express interest in McCrysal? NEVER afaik.

Sad.

The lyin' msm is not where the action is, where the action is explains why his poll numbers are going up.

[Frau Nie Wieder Clinton]

The polls may be slipping, but it's Chicago Rules from now on in.

There's going to be a serial voter lottery with more to win than in the Mega Lotto.

[maryrose]

The last time I saw Kendall(Hillary's lawyer)
He looked nervous.
At the very least he should lose his law license
The thought of him with confidential secret information creeps me out.

[Captain Hate]

cheerleader, I think matt was being sarcastic.

[cheerleader]

It was the same dynamic during the primaries, so-called well-informed people got all their information from they lyin' msm so they were shocked, shocked when Mr. Trump won.

The msm constantly lies about him, his statements, his acts, and his motives, so it's no wonder the people who read that crap are depressed about him

Here's an idea, why not pay attention to what he is actually saying and doing instead of letting pro-commie sources be your filters, taking little snips out of context to build their lies.

It's really no wonder that the Republicans have been plagued with such pishpoor leadership.

[cheerleader]

Thanks, Captain Hate,

I do hope that's the case. Sarcasm often doesn't work on the internets, without the smilies to show that it's sarcasm.

Last week, or maybe longer ago, this forum was rejecting my posts, I don't know what that was all about, but it seems to be okay now.

[Captain Hate]

Miss Marple, does Rodham have the usual awkward cadences and raising her voice at strange times? Can you imagine having to coach that unpredictable sot? "God dammit you told me not to cackle and now it's this, that and every other fucking thing to do or not do. Where did all the lamps go?"

[Frau Nie Wieder Clinton]

OL @ 1:03 - I had to restrain myself from drawing attention to those two words in one sentence.
Thank you for stepping in for me.

Don't let anyone forget that Hillary! really did have a serious brain injury. The country must have a healthy president.

Kendall lose his law license? He is on the short list for Supreme Court along with Jamie Gorelick and LoLy. Janet Napolitano and Donna Shalala (president of the Clinton Foundation) are on the longer list

[daddy]

Guys, L'il help.

Who is Uncle Jack?

And is LOLy Loretta Lynch?

[Beasts of England]

lol, Frau!!

~ ~ ~

Clenis is in Alabama today? I'll put the Bikini Babes on lockdown...

[Frau Nie Wieder Clinton]

cheerleader, it's called TypePest for a reason. For me, it's usually cookies on my two computers but not always.

[Captain Hate]

Uncle Jack is Tammy Bruce's name for Rodham.

LoLy is Lynch.

Throw me a link to the glossary and I'll update.

[Frau Nie Wieder Clinton]

Beasts, be sure the Babes have tasers, too, just in case.

Uncle Jack is Bent Willie's bride.

[Captain Hate]

Has a Meghan's Law alert been issued for Alabama?

[Pagar a bacon, ham and sausage supporter]

IMO, Hillary make Madoff look like an honest person.

[Captain Hate]

Let the spilling begin:

http://www.weaselzippers.us/283238-breaking-fbi-agents-believe-there-was-an-inside-deal-put-in-place-on-hillary-email-probe-during-loretta-lynch-and-bill-clintons-tarmac-meeting/

[Jack is Back! (As Mr. Fixit)]

Do not compare the Tory party of the UK with what we call conservatives. They are more closely related to the Scoop Jackson wing of the old Democrat party. May is closer to a Clintonista than a Cruz or Trump even. She evens accepts some value from Sharia law.

Farage and Hannan are "conservatives" in our vernacular but Hannan is a member of the Tory party for European parliament. In fact, Hannan is more like a Ron Paul conservative.

[Frau Nie Wieder Clinton]

Those big signs on the interstates should be flashing like crazy, CH.

[Appalled]

Theo:

I feel your pain.

I find myself reading a lot of HL Mencken right now. It's rather more descriptive of things than would make me comfortable, right down to describing the way we dispute matters, and the conversion of anything into a moral dispute.

[maryrose]

Pagar:
So true.
Once a grifter always a grifter.
I am glad Hillary thinks she is home free on the E-mails.
She has no idea how the blowback from this is going to effect her campaign.
It is now down to Independents and undecideds as well as disillusioned Bernie voters.
Ryan begging for a speaking spot?
He is in charge of the convention.
He can do whatever he wants.
It is to laugh.

[Beasts of England]

Slick is in Bay Minette, AL (Gulf of Mexico), so I'm giving the all clear!! :)

[daddy]

Looks like you have to go to the UK papers to get an honest take on the mood in the German Street: German teachers boycott leavers' ceremony after Muslim pupil refused to shake hands with female staff

Teachers in Germany have set off a national controversy after they boycotted their own school’s leavers’ ceremony in protest at a Muslim pupil who refused to shake hands with a female member of staff...

“I’m not doing this out of disrespect, but for religious reasons”. (said the Muslim student)...

While the pupil’s original refusal has been the subject of hot debate in Germany, the teachers’ boycott has been widely condemned.

“It also punished the other students who had been looking forward to celebrating finishing school with all their teachers. And did it help?” Heike Klovert wrote in Spiegel magazine.

---------------------------------

And Prime Minister Teresa May thinks Sharia in Britain will be swell.

[lyle]

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/07/holmes-to-remain-at-theranos-despite-federal-ban-and-gross-negligence/

SOB if you wish. I just have this schadenboner morbid fascination with the public destruction of this fraud. If nothing else, click to see the pic showing her to be not near as attractive or stylish as the [redacted] fawning press has made her out to be.

[Miss Marple 2]

lyle,

She gears a striking resemblance to The Omen.

[Miss Marple 2]

"bears"

[Lurker Susie]

Looks like Nate has Hil in for the win

2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[lyle]

I was thinking the exact same thing, MM!

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

How ironic that an unethical, blonde, mendacious Democrat has been banned from her field for two years for gross negligence involving blood tests but the one who through gross negligence exposed vital national secrets to foreign governments got off scot free and is running for president.

[daddy]

(Harvard professor)Mr. Fryer, who is black, told The New York Times that the finding of no racial discrimination in police shootings was “the most surprising result of my career.”

I would have thought that the “the most surprising result of my career.” might have been the story from last month where the researchers at the "American Journal of Political Science," who did that huge study that "proved" that Conservatives are authoritarian psychotics and Liberals are mentally stable and wonderful people, admitted that they had reversed the data in their huge finding and it was actually Liberals who were the nutcase fascists and Conservatives were the sane folks in America.

EPIC CORRECTION OF THE DECADE

the authors regret that there is an error in the published version of “Correlation not Causation: The Relationship between Personality Traits and Political Ideologies” American Journal of Political Science 56 (1), 34–51. The interpretation of the coding of the political attitude items in the descriptive and preliminary analyses portion of the manuscript was exactly reversed.

Thus, where we indicated that higher scores in Table 1 (page 40) reflect a more conservative response, they actually reflect a more liberal response. Specifically, in the original manuscript, the descriptive analyses report that those higher in Eysenck’s psychoticism are more conservative, but they are actually more liberal; and where the original manuscript reports those higher in neuroticism and social desirability are more liberal, they are, in fact, more conservative.

That should have been the “the most surprising result of my His career.” I'll give him a break though, since as a Liberal he's psychotic:)

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Looks like Nate has Hil in for the win--

More good news for Trump.

[sbw]

HL Mencken

Good choice.

Alistair Cooke has a good book on H.L.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--The interpretation of the coding of the political attitude items in the descriptive and preliminary analyses portion of the manuscript was exactly reversed.--

A small part of me suspects that was just part of the study; "let's mess with their heads for awhile then reverse the results and see what happens..."

[maryrose]

Lurker Susie
Old Nate was wrong about Trump and now he is wrong about Hillafy.
He is paid to predict her as the winner despite the facts.

[Gentlejim]

"Clinton blows"
Of course she doesn't. That's why Billy Jeff had Monica.