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October 11, 2016

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jimmyk

As I said last night, I'm partly with Sue on taking the polls seriously, but really just the polls in the week before the election, since those are the ones that make or break the pollsters' reputations. As I recall, in 2004 there was "late movement" toward Bush, which could be interpreted as pollsters' CYA activity, or maybe it was genuine, who knows?

In the case of 2012, it's hard to separate out whether the polls were accurate before the week prior to the election, or Romney's disastrous 3rd debate was fortuitous for the pollsters. In any case, my take on the polls now is that it's up for grabs, and that will likely continue to be my take until the first week of November.

jimmyk

The Brexit final polling was 48-46 "remain." The results were 52-48 "leave."

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

Sue

For some unknown reason y'all think me voicing my opinion down in the bowels of Tom's blog will have some detrimental outcome to the election. I'm pretty sure those posting here and lurking are Trump voters, if not actual supporters.

boris

"But making casual assumptions about an election being stolen, or indulging in whatever conspiracy theory pops up, because reality did not agree with your preconceptions, is also very dangerous"

Oh please spare me your concern dude.

The danger is not from this campaign revealing how we have been duped.

What you are afraid of is we might "overreact". No matter how this turns out I aim to overreact plenty.

Truthbetold5

Sue

This comment board is the center of the universe, don't ya know

Sue

Eff you TBT or as I like to call you, maggot.

Miss Marple the Deplorable

Appalled,

I have not forgotten the Florida recount, which included ballots found in the trunk of a car, the infamous hanging chads, the deperate measures taken by the dems to force a recount, and the media's own efforts to have their own recount even after W was sworn in. In fact, Gore appeared with Hillary the other day and brougght up once again his old accusation that the GOP stole the election.

If you think that civil unrest isn't coming if we just accept the election, well, I just have to disagree. We ALREADY have civil unrest (see Ferguson, for example). We have daily reports of terrorism. Obama is stirring the pot with his comments and accusations about the Russians.

I am buying a gun and stocking up on canned goods.

boris

"For some unknown reason y'all think me voicing my opinion down in the bowels of Tom's blog will have some detrimental outcome to the election"

Luvya Sue but please, that's silly.

It more seems like it upsets you when others don't share your confidence in our doom.

jimmyk

No matter how this turns out I aim to overreact plenty.

I would put it slightly differently (at least for me): Any reaction I am likely to have should Hillary somehow win will be an underreaction, given the disastrous implications. That outcome will mean that corruption has triumphed, "Chinatown" (the movie) style. Worse, of course, because it's a national election, so there's no escape.

Truthbetold5

Sue

If Trump loses it's your fault

Sue

Boris,

Right. I'm the one upset and telling people to eff off. (Oh boy, I did tell someone to eff off, didn't I?)

jimmyk

I haven't heard Sue express "confidence in our doom," just a cautionary note not to dismiss the polls, whatever they may be saying.

Sue

There's a new thread btw.

boris

Well I was refereeing to this:

Hillary Clinton is going to win. So love me, hate, me, my opinion and your opinion about the polls won't matter one iota at the end of this election cycle.

Posted by: Sue | October 13, 2016 at 10:22 AM

Doom enough for me anyway.

James D

Appalled, the election is being stolen right now, in plain sight.

We have an FBI and a Justice Department that are completely compromised, and refused to investigate crimes by the Democratic candidate for President.

We have voter fraud going on all over the country.

We have open coordination between virtually every major media outlet and the Democratic Party that has gone well past the usual bias and dishonesty we've all come to expect.

We have a Democrat candidate who has called the Republican Party her enemy, and who has declared its voters to be deplorable and irredeemable.

We have an IRS that attacks conservative citizens and groups while enabling liberal ones.

We have a President who has acted lawlessly in far too many ways to even begin to list.

We have long term planning to subjugate our population and turn as many as possible into mindless serfs, as rse has painstakingly and terrifingly detailed. With footnotes.

Oh, and as for "social cohesion", the progressives have been actively and happily tearing that to shreds for the past half-century or more.

So, you know what? If Hillary does win, then I will say without question that the election was stolen, and that she is completely illegitimate and not my President.

Sue

If Trump doesn't make a comeback, and at least some of the polls are showing he is, pre latest revelations from NYTs and others, Hillary Clinton is going to win.

Doesn't take much to doom you.

clarice b. for Brainiac

FWIW (I'm outa here for a few hours):Anonymous on what He is bringing to the table
" what's coming: ""All 33k deleted Emails are going to be released by November 1st. probably in 4 – 5 sets. these emails are going to be the complete undoing of the Democratic Party. We are purposely holding them back so they cannot have time to replace Hillary.
Also we are not Russian. despite what CNN tells you. we already have inside info that Obama is literally going to start a war with Russia to cover up the crimes that are in the emails. we are talking Obama and Hillary being held for Treason and ending up with the same Terrorist they have influenced – by this time next year. ending up with the same Terrorists.
The emails coming through the next two weeks. and there are 6 videos being released. one that documents Hillary slandering and being racist against a Female African American. the amount of hatred seen on her face for their community will be worse than 100 TrumpTapes.
Also there is documents and videos coming this week. that will destitute any faith left in the Democratic Party. specifically with HRC’s campaign. We have them committing felonies on camera. the kind that make the voter fraud that we have released. look like a JWalking ticket (bribes and threats) to control the Media and Election officials.
The information will be released we rely on everyone to help spread the truth.
We have already delivered roughly 10k of the Podesta emails. this is 1.120th of the content we will be releasing and we are saving the best for last.
Wait a week and then look at the polls you guys are basing your arrogance upon. we also have information 911 0 polls that are posted from right before the debate – today have been sampled to show favor to HRC and create a false drop for Donald.
This election is closer than any of you know and Donald is actually leading Hillary in the only un-biased poll with the largest sample group.
It’s painfully obvious that Clintons campaign is hurting. the only negative arguments and narratives they constantly push are the TrumpTapes. which he was prepared for and immediately appeared to hurt him. but actually has helped him. since it opened up his ability to use actual rape victims.
They also are clinging to the taxes. which is 100% legal and Donald will release them soon and HRC can no longer attack him on that when he does (he is purposely holding them off to show that his last 5+ years will make all of HRC’s bashing look horrible. since they show him paying much more than she does)
HRC is attempting to pay I force a woman to lie that Trump sexually assaulted her.
HRC is trying to Blackmail a member of the Apprentice staff for a Tape that does not exist. but she played right into our hands and we have video and audio of members of her campaign staff threatening I trying to Bribe the staff Member (no tape exists. we literally played her)
HRC is done. you can claim victory all you want. but the facts will show on November

Sue

I hope they have the 33k emails. That is what I want to see. Not sure waiting is a good idea, since early voting is happening in several states.

Appalled (Alt-Moderate)

clarice:

Someone needs to remind anonymous that early voting has already started, and they probably want to get their stuff on the table now -- if they want to have impact (as opposed to just stir stuff up).

boris

"Appalled, the election is being stolen right now, in plain sight"

Good point James.

Okay Sue, but according to you Trump can't possibly win unless he changes the polls in his favor.

Others who claim the polls might not be accurate are according to you not "facing reality".

Is that enough nuance for you ?

Sue

Who are these others you refer to that say the polls aren't accurate? Earlier you claimed I made that up.

Janet 1

Seeing those 33,000 emails will be funny just to see the maybe 2 yoga emails.

I signed you up for a yoga class - Huma

Well unsign me you idiot...now get me some tea & remind me when The Good Wife is on TV - HRC

Sue

Janet,

::grin::

boris

"Earlier you claimed I made that up"

If you look back what I wrote should be read as saying nobody denies the polls favor Clinton.

Also wrote "Nobody is in denial that the polls are what they are". IOW nobody is in denial who they favor, just question their accuracy.

boris

Did you miss this comment?

"Apparently we are reading different posts here"

Don't know what you mean by that. Most published polls favor Clinton. Unless you see some posts here that deny that your comment makes no sense to me.

Posted by: boris | October 13, 2016 at 11:08 AM

Cuz I thought that would clarify possible misread.

boris

TyphusPad dropped my avatar!

Sue

Boris,

That is exactly the same thing as what was being said in 08 and 12. The polls favored Obama but they were inaccurate.

I have to go. Have a nice day.

Sue

No, I didn't miss your earlier comment. You leave out stuff, either by accident or design.

Now, later.

Porchlight

Mission accomplished!

boris

Polls were inaccurate in this primary.

Maybe, just maybe, they can be right sometimes AND they can be wrong other times.

Barbara

I have to say that I'm with Boris on this one, Sue. You make some very valid points, but at this stage in the election we have to counter punch what the media is trying to do, not reflect it.

I haven't seen this much enthusiasm for a candidate since Reagan. The filthy accusations are typical Clinton. Trump has shown that he's prepared and willing to hit back - HARD. That's good.

Let's see how the next few revelations play out. If they have Hillary Clinton vocally ripping up at an African American - considering HC's vitriolic mouth - that will be significant.

If/when Trump releases his tax returns it will turn Clinton's campaign upside down. And if those returns are followed with information on the Clinton Foundation and other criminal, despicable activities typical of HC, it can only benefit Trump. HUGE.

Ben

The polls are inaccurate be cuz too many ashamed of admitting they will vote the Pyro maniac Party.

Ben

Looks like you will keep me busy in 2017.

I want to see how you feel about getting your wish.

Barbara

Remember this line from "Patton"?

L'audace, l'audace, toujours l'audace!

This was a French military maxim that Frederick the Great adopted. Napoleon used it as well.

L'audace, l'audace, toujours l'audace!

Audacity, audacity, always audacity!

"Basically it means never give up the initiative to your enemy. An audacious and bold commander is preferable to a plodding one."

One thing that people can say about Trump: he certainly has audacity.

And he has tactics, as well. For that Trump can look to one of my fav military generals, Wellington. The Iron Duke knew the battlefield. He used it to his advantage and was ready for just about anything. I have a theory about how Wellington suckered Napoleon right into the spot he wanted him. I've never seen it confirmed, but everything I've read about the man and his battles both in the Peninsula and at Waterloo lead me to that conclusion.

L'audace!

Porchlight

I obviously misinterpreted and overreacted, Sue.

I apologize to you and to everyone.

BeenThereDoneThat

No kidding, people, NO KIDDING:

Paul Ryan ‏@SpeakerRyan 54s55 seconds ago

The BABIES Act is now law and will make it easier for dads to find changing tables in public. At long last.

(I follow this idiot just to see what kind of carp he'll come up with next....)

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