Powered by TypePad

« Stopping The Bleeding | Main | Can't Make It Up »

October 11, 2016

Comments

Porchlight

Here's O'Keefe's video:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII

Threadkiller

From clarice's link:

But what we have already has gone a long way to demonstrating how the people of this country have been lied to and deceived for the preservation of this nomenklatura and its power...

...Most evident from their downloads is the unremitting, almost incestual, alliance between elites (read: Democratic Party leadership) and the press, those who are informing us of what we are supposed to think...

...Is anyone surprised at this, at best, legally dubious activity? Probably not at this point. But this underscores the fearlessness of the nomenklatura in transgressing the law in defense of their policy goals and positions.

Now remember, the only exception to this was in 2008 when two ineligible candidates were run against each other.

No funny business then. All this must have started in 2009...

Janet 1

Love it, Janet! Did you see the toddler Trump video from the other night?

Yeah, it was great. Those big signs are going up not too far from you...over near Burton.

I would love to be down there helping my brother put them up. Instead I'm gluing magnets onto my new 'Basket of Deplorables' bumper sticker.

Congrats, Stephanie!!

rse

This is for porch. http://www.kentuckyteacher.org/features/photos/2016/09/a-new-kind-of-library/

Porchlight

We just opened a facility EXACTLY like that one, rse. Millions of dollars spent on toys, millions of highly used books gone to storage and quiet study space, which serves ALL students, eliminated. And we don't even have the resources and staff to properly support the toys.

Porchlight

Janet, you're always in Texas in spirit! :)

Miss Marple the Deplorable

rsem

Learning so much from your research and much appreciate it!

It occurs to me that the dems bought into Trump's "Apprentice" personna and forgot (if some of them ever knew) that he was much more than a celebrity.

That is why in the early days of his campaign we saw a lot of glee from the dems that he was in the race, and why so many on the GOP side dismissed him as an attention-seeker and blowhard.

What they are dealing with now is a very smart guy who weaponized his celebrity for the good of the country. It's really the supreme irony, since his fame outside of New York was built by a show which NBC helped promote.

clarice b. for Brainiac

Ryan et al reportedly engineered this as a coup--lied to others saying Trump was going to drop out last weekend and they should unendorse him before then.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMhsMjQQzqY

James D

rse, porch...that's appalling beyond words.

Not at all surprising, though.

Janet 1

why so many on the GOP side dismissed him as an attention-seeker and blowhard.

MFMers & any politician saying that as a negative about ANYONE is pretty rich.

Hello!...look in the mirror.

Threadkiller

To vast, clarice.

:-)

clarice b. for Brainiac

"to vast"?

Another rimshot by Daniel Greenfield:http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/264471/trump-tapes-and-clinton-morals-daniel-greenfield

buccaneer morgan

not surprising as they provided training camps for the plo,

http://babalublog.com/2016/10/11/special-yom-kippur-reminder-from-babalu-blog-how-castro-regime-depicted-jews-before-they-became-vital-as-tourists-to-castro-regime-coffers/

BlueOx

MM,

I'm not convinced Trump can/will win in November, but I am absolutely convinced that if the Republicans were to call a "do-over" on the primary process, Trump would win again - probably by increased margins.

Ryan and co. make not like it, but that's where we are. It takes a pretty dedicated level of stupid for them to think otherwise.

Threadkiller

I think the easier it gets to believe the inside hatchet jobs, the collusion, and the media shenanigans that go on in DC, the harder it gets to dismiss scrubbed Supreme Court cases that address POTUS eligibility.

I was told at the time, stuff like this was "too vast."

Now, it is difficult to explain away, and I'm loving it.

Captain Hate

It's really the supreme irony, since his fame outside of New York was built by a show which NBC helped promote.

I've been enjoying this aspect every step of the way.

Congrats, Steph.

buccaneer morgan

whatever man, write in yosemite sam

http://www.weaselzippers.us/300612-mcrino-i-might-write-in-lindsay-graham-for-president/

another neighbor has a proper contempt for mayor bane and the toad, and I'm trying to move him along,

Sue

Y'all don't ignore the polls. This happens every 4 years around here and every 4 years you are disappointed with the election results. My prayer is Trump rebounds before it is too late. Early voting is happening already in several states. This is why Mark Davis, a local talk show host, hates, hates, hates early voting.

Threadkiller

No disappointment here.

Fuck the polls.

buccaneer morgan

the spew is a superfund site,

https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/246096/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

PD(eplorable)

"PD, IMO the "best candidate" rule needs to apply."

I agree. I've already voted (in Madison, you can vote early at the public libraries), and I voted all the way down the ticket.

But I certainly understand the "burn it to the ground" sentiment many of us have about today's Republican party (I kinda feel that way, too). What I'm saying is that I suspect the cold fury many traditionally Republican voters now have toward our genius overlords will lead them not to fill in all the boxes. "You don't support Trump? Fine, I won't support you." That kind of thing.

Captain Hate

From RG's post:

Black people by and large love Bill.

I'm sure this is true but I really don't get it. The first time I saw and heard him I knew he was a lying piece of trash beyond a shadow of a doubt. That's not based on any superhuman amount of insight as much as experience in dealing with grifters and lowlifes. It's one thing to disagree with people politically but quite another thing not to recognize scum no matter how well dressed up.

clarice b. for Brainiac

http://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about/

DebinNC

I don't think Ryan cares a whit what people outside lily white, middle class+ District 1 WI think, but I hope we all let our own reps hear our opinion of Ryan's "leadership". Unfortunately, I don't see him leaving voluntarily until he wants to, and I don't see anyone else in leadership changing course as Speaker. The House GOP contingent is such a fractured mess of competing "caucuses" that only a preening prima donna/apple polisher like Ryan can get enough votes.

Captain Hate

Ryan's lack of integrity has been the biggest disappointment of the last eight years. He talked a great game in 2010 and has violated every promise.

Beasts of England

Last comment of the morning, just so that all the poll hawks don't drive me to a come-apart...

Voting for McCain was a chore. Voting for Romney was okay. Voting for Trump will be a delight - a delight I haven't felt since voting for Ronnie. Threadkiller nailed it early in this election season by coining the phrase 'Silenced Majority'. There are millions of voters who have not only been ignored for the last ten years, but they've been dumped on by the GOPe. Trump has given them a voice, and they're going to use that voice in November in a way that's unprecedented.

Trump in a landslide.

MAGA

sbw

Dear AP bureau chief:

AP is in the process of destroying the brand.

AP reports:

CAMPAIGN 2016-WIKILEAKS — Hillary Clinton's top adviser says the FBI is investigating Russia's possible role in hacking thousands of his personal emails, an intrusion he says Trump's campaign may have been aware of in advance. By Kathleen Hennessey and Julie Pace. UPCOMING: 770 words by 3:30 a.m., photos. With CAMPAIGN 2016 — Unshackled, Trump unleashes aggressive attacks on own party. Also see CAMPAIGN 2016-BILL CLINTON below.
ABC News reports:
In a series of candid email exchanges with top Clinton Foundation officials during the hours after the massive 2010 Haiti earthquake, a senior aide to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton repeatedly gave special attention to those identified by the abbreviations “FOB” (friends of Bill Clinton) or “WJC VIPs” (William Jefferson Clinton VIPs).

“Need you to flag when people are friends of WJC,” wrote Caitlin Klevorick, then a senior State Department official who was juggling incoming offers of assistance being funneled to the State Department by the Clinton Foundation. “Most I can probably ID but not all.”

My readers deserve to know the news, not Julie Pace’s support for the Uniparty.

Thank you.

lurkersusie

Lol,

Video from 2008 Campaign Appears to Show Obama Flaunting Erection to Female Reporters :: Grabien News

https://news.grabien.com/story-video-2008-campaign-appears-show-obama-flaunting-erection-fe

James D

CH @ 10:06

I felt exactly the same way about him, right from the start. It's beyond me how anyone cannot see through the superficial "charm" to the sleazy grifter underneath.

But apparently a hell of a lot of people respond to that.

clarice b. for Brainiac

email from a correspondent: "
Our side has done a good job of pointing out what real sexual assault looks like, so just for fun, I think I'll take up what the PC crowd wants to fight. Fighting rape and real sexual assault in the inner cities and by predatory older males against middle and high school students is difficult and the statistics tend to stigmatize African-American males. So the P.C. crowd goes after the kind of 'sexual assault" that if often quite benign and part of semi-modern/traditional courtship rituals.

First person story: After what the PC police would call a "sexual assault" - but I considered a surprise but not unwelcome kiss, my husband to be, Rob Jeffrey, introduced me to that delightful little farce, P.G. Wodehouse's Money in the Bank in which a shy guy named Jeff is encouraged to just grab and kiss the girl of his dreams before she makes a terrible mistake by marrying the wrong man. To this day, we call it "The Wodehouse method." I mention this, not to excuse bad language, or to imply Trump had good intentions, but only to put the term "sexual assault" in proper perspective. (BTW, Money in the Bank also has a character named Mr. Trumper - whose role I cannot now recall, but he is neither the shy young Jeffrey, nor his older, wiser advisor.)

Political Correctness has invaded every aspect of our lives; but the area where it is now being felt most intensely is in the sexual realm. While pushing Planned Parenthood's "Kiddie Porn" to K-4 students as "health education," and making statements in the press like this one: "girls have to get used to seeing male genitalia" as a defense for transgendered locker rooms" (paraphrased, but not inaccurately), the PC education crowd insists that college women are constantly at risk of "sexual assault." If you properly define "sexual assault" as rape or intent to rape, college campuses are actually among the safest places for women of college age. If that were not true, no one would pay $50,000 or more to let their precious daughters attend college. And those of us who teach on these campuses, and are close to our students, would be aware that our women students were being constantly "assaulted.""

buccaneer morgan

these are the publications that drive rush to dispair,

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/10/politics-still-rule-in-the-us-publics-acceptance-of-climate-science/

buccaneer morgan

dd harriman he is not,

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/11/elon-musk-robert-murray-coal-green-subsidies

lurkersusie


Paul Joseph Watson
Paul Joseph Watson – Verified account ‏@PrisonPlanet

.@heatstreet - Do you know your "conservative" writer Mensch has been caught writing imaginary Hillary campaign ads? https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/5740

buccaneer morgan

I never really trusted johnson, after what steyn reminded me off, back during the iraq war,

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/12/russia-boris-johnson-syria-aleppo-war-crime-russophobic-hysteria

DebinNC

AP's Julie Pace has been a BOzo favorite from the start. Would stopping subscriptions/online clicks to anything that carried AP pieces have an effect? Would boycotting companies that advertise on lib-heavy outlets be noticed? NFL ratings dropping, especially after the anthem protests, makes we think intentionally supporting things we like and intentionally bypassing those we don't is something we can and should be doing a lot more.

Jim Eagle

Just thinking, is the R.I.N.O. appellation even operative anymore? Hasn't the Republican party devolved into that representative of the McCain's, Collins, Flakes, Ayottes and Ryan's?

RINO now appears to be passé.

Janet 1

mcrino-i-might-write-in-lindsay-graham-for-president/

Lindsey "Free speech is a great idea but..." Graham for POTUS??

buccaneer morgan

Democrat in all but literal name, got power yet, jib?

Sue

especially after the anthem protests

I hope the NBA is next. The singer last night at a Sacramento Kings game dropped to her knee at the end of singing the anthem. If the crowd knew what she was doing, they cheered like crazy. I may have to boycott my Mavs this year.

henry

Trump will be in Wisconsin next week.

Appalled (Alt-Moderate)

If Ryan actually told people Trump was resigning from the ticket over the weekend, he won't last as Speaker. You can lie to the people, but you can't lie to your colleagues like that, and not expect them to take revenge, if they act on the statement and then get burned.

Of course, maybe Trump had someone tell Ryan he was quitting the ticket, and then hung him out to dry. I can see that series of events. If so, hope Ryan has all that on tape.

henry

The AP framing on that article is priceless (in the wake of criticism...). At what point is AP providing in kind contributions to the Hilligula campaign?

Dorothy Jane

Long time since I have commented here, although I lurk every single day. Just wanted to say I love reading the comments here. It's so comforting.

clarice b. for Brainiac

A shocker--Cortland Milloy defends Trump supporters against racism and says it's the poor and middle class being abused by elites who make this charge to divide the opposition against them: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/some-see-a-nightmare-with-a-trump-loss-but-they-may-be-looking-at-the-wrong-boogeyman/2016/10/11/eb1d99c4-8fd0-11e6-a6a3-d50061aa9fae_story.html

James D

At what point is AP providing in kind contributions to the Hilligula campaign?

That point was passed years ago.

DebinNC

"Dorothy Jane" ... what a lovely name. Please join in more often.

clarice b. for Brainiac

FTA (Milloy's)FTA: It’s not hard to see that the ripping-off of America’s middle class has been underway for at least 40 years. Many are understandably angry, although too often at the wrong villain. And unless black and white working-class people come together and stop falling for these political con games, that nightmare will continue.

Janet 1

Clarice's 10:09 link is great.

Dave (in MA)
Lol,

Video from 2008 Campaign Appears to Show Obama Flaunting Erection to Female Reporters :: Grabien News

https://news.grabien.com/story-video-2008-campaign-appears-show-obama-flaunting-erection-fe

So when some people call the campaign staffers fluffers, it's not a term of disparagement, it's a job description?

the generalisticly deplorable rich

Posted by: Appalled (Alt-Moderate) | October 12, 2016 at 10:44 AM-

remember this is the stupid party you are dealing with.

the generalisticly deplorable rich

or more to the point, I could see a scenario in which Ryan got sandbagged by the Clinton campaign and really for nothing.

James D

Interesting, clarice. I think you're a little bit generous to Milloy, but I suppose he does go farther than most of the liars, slanderers and vermin who work at the WaPo in at least inching towards something like a bit of the truth.

It is absolutely mind-blowing to me that the GOP leadership (and the Dems, for that matter), still do not get it at all.

There are a LOT of people in this country, tens of millions, black and white and every other race, men and women, young and old, who have lost out in our exciting new globalized, cronyist economy. They see that their leaders not only don't work for them, but actively work against their interests, and refuse to even listen to their concerns and fears.

Those concerns and fears aren't going away, even if Trump loses, and his high-profile supporters and staff are blackballed from DC forever.

They should have figured this out during the primaries. It was pointed out to them often enough. All they are doing by endlessly crapping on Trump's supporters (and Bernie's, too) is stoking resentment and anger, and that anger WILL have an outlet.

They may hate Trump, but he will be a picnic compared to whoever or whatever comes next. Something like the French Revolution is probably a best-case scenario.

Porchlight

Hi Dorothy Jane. Nice to have you here! Agree with DebinNC, I hope you'll comment more. :)

Sue, I hear you about the polls. But this year there are conflicting polls. I'm looking for Trump to rebound even in the ones I'm pretty sure are cooked.

clarice b. for Brainiac

Cortland Milloy is usually the worst race baiter at the Post--which is why I find his article today so astonishing. Which Rattler were here to discuss it.

DebinNC

From Clarice's must-read at 10:09, referring to an overwhelmingly red U.S. map with scattered blue dots:

"Blue islands in an ocean of red. The cities are less than 4 percent of the land mass, but 62 percent of the population and easily 99 percent of the popular culture. Our movies, shows, songs, and news all radiate out from those blue islands."

sbw

New York Newspaper Publishers sent my note to all state publishers. Feel free to send it to your local newspaper:

Just because an article is sent from a wire service does not mean it meets standards. Poor editing has no place influencing the outcome of elections.

Wire services often mistake ledes, follow false statistics, omit important facts, or insert extraneous opinion that passes as news. We now review every political article wire services transmit for us to print.

Edited marked up copy is often fed back to wire service bureaus in hope they will improve their journalistic practices.

Some recent edits:

• Corrected one candidate's rhetorical "gotcha" on violent crime statistics that "fact-checked" as "true" but was so narrowly defined as to be a statistical fiction.
• Removed extraneous hearsay opinion included simply because others said it.
• A recent edit eliminated 22 paragraphs of noise and added one sentence needed for understanding.
• Removed clichéd descriptive adjectives about candidates irrelevant to the campaign or accurate reporting, that reinforced stereotypes rather than relevant news.
• Inserted candidate remarks that were omitted in an article that included comments from others.
• Articles should include candidate statements if others are reported criticizing it. At least link to where the full comment can be found.
• Added historical context to make current actions relevant and removed other extraneous "context" designed to muddy understanding.
• Refused to run horse race status make-news polls of questionable provenance designed to increase or dampen election turn-out.
• Rejected an article that described what happened around an event but that failed to convey candidate's remarks at the event itself.

Unfortunately, spin has become more important than reporting what happened and the narrative has become more important than the story.

News is what you need to know to make sound decisions about your future. Readers deserve solid news that helps them make their own decisions.

Readers do not want to be misinformed by poor editing from wire services.

clarice b. for Brainiac

And another shocker from Cass Sunstein:https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-11/five-books-to-change-liberals-minds?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view

sbw

Dorothy Jane, welcome. We expect you to check back in to JOM for service in 21 years. ;-)

Sue

Porch,

I'm looking for Trump to rebound

And I'm praying he does. I saw a tweet that Trump's internals closely match those we are seeing. Maybe everyone is wrong and the person reporting that is lying. But I'm not going to ignore the polls ever again.

DebinNC

Kudos, sbw. Is there a link source, like from "New York Newspaper Publishers", I could send to our local paper? IOW, how would I send your sage advice?

Sue

SBW,

That is great. Glad they sent it out.

Porchlight

Do you have a link to that tweet, Sue? I'm praying, too. :)

Miss Marple the Deplorable

Regarding shows and news, Deb, I wonder how many have completely tuned out, as I have.

I cut cable when we moved. It's too expensive and the only reason I had it was Fox, but their attacks on Trump sort of convinced me to leave the entire system. I don't go to movies at all, and we watch old stuff on Netflix.

Cable has priced itself out of the market for a lot of famillies. It's the first thing you can cut when your budget needs tightening, and I think this is happening more frequently with the internet.

My sister the retired teacher has never had cable. She watches YouTube on her coputer (usually British shows) and borrows movies from the library. My nurse sister has cable but rarely watches and when she does, she turns off the news because they have made her so damn mad.

The blue areas still control pop culture, but it seems to me that the slice is smaller. An example of this would be the drop in NFL ratings.

I think things are slowly changing, but it's only an anecdotal-type feeling.

sbw

Future book title for Sunstein ->

“It’s not your mind to make up.”

Sue

I don't tweet on my computer, just my iphone. I'm on the computer right now. I'll look after lunch and post it.

Matt - deplore me if you must

MM, a small frame Glock is simple, reliable, and effective. Also relatively inexpensive. They make a very nice compact .45 cal, but for accuracy I would go with a 9mm or .40 cal. Less recoil.

I am expecting the headlines soon to read "Clinton wins 99.6% of vote!" before the election.

The tide of faux news slamming us now used to be called voter suppression. That this is happening in the world's greatest democracy is perhaps the greatest disgrace we have ever seen.

Porchlight

Thanks!

Miss Marple the Deplorable

Well, I am not ignoring the polls nor am I being stampeded by them.

We just don't know how accurate they are. We don't know how many democrats are jumping ship or staying home. We don't know how many Trump supporters will falter. This is all stuff we don't know.

All I can do is vote and pray.

I will say this, if we lose it won't be for the candidate's lack of trying. He has fought this entire time, which is all I can ask for. UNLIKE Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, who will NEVER get my vote.

Sue

If the polls have Trump close before election day, but not ahead, I'll believe that he might pull it off. If the polls stay like they are, I'm going to believe Hillary wins with the same margins Obama did and we can't overcome the free shit no matter who we run.

the generalisticly deplorable rich

>>>The tide of faux news slamming us now used to be called voter suppression. That this is happening in the world's greatest democracy is perhaps the greatest disgrace we have ever seen.

Posted by: Matt - deplore me if you must | October 12, 2016 at 11:26 AM<<<

I was thinking more like dezinformatsiya ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3nXvScRazg

Sue

Mitt Romney was right. There is 47% baked into the cake and will never vote republican.

Sue

UNLIKE Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, who will NEVER get my vote.

Well, I'm going to do what I always do. Vote straight party line and walk out the door. I'm not going to let a democrat get my vote by not voting.

Miss Marple the Deplorable

Sue,

47% IF you don't go after them. Trump has made the attempt.

We will see.

Miss Marple the Deplorable

Sue,

I didn't say I wouldln't vote. I was talking about if those two ever run again.

Sue

Okay, but if they run as republicans, I will vote for them. Because I will vote straight party until and unless I see an independent that can beat the democrat. Am I pissed off at Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan? Sure. But they beat any democrat I can see out there.

Jim Eagle

narc,

Everyone has power but us. Undergound cables and isolated independent transformer. But we're number 48 on the FPL waitlist. I wish someone would hurry up and grope my breaker:)

clarice,

You have email. Also, Happy Yom Kippur. And Sandy Koufax still ain't pitching today:)

Janet 1

There are a LOT of people in this country, tens of millions, black and white and every other race, men and women, young and old, who have lost out in our exciting new globalized, cronyist economy. They see that their leaders not only don't work for them, but actively work against their interests, and refuse to even listen to their concerns and fears.

James,
Here's Clarice's 10:09 link again - http://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about/

It is good.

derwill, yet another adorable, irredeemable deplorable

Even if the polls aren't cooked, their models could be off if there is re-alignmnet going on.

Sorry I can't link, but Conservative Treehouse has a post up about a PAC called Trumpocrats--Democrats who are now voting for Trump. (You'll have to scroll down now).

The guy who heads up the PAC claims to have registered over 1 million NEW voters.

The post also links to a Yahoo news story that has some interesting figures.

10-15% or 4.6 to 9.8 million of Trump supporters voted for Obama.

Democrats who have switched their registration to Republican in some key states: CO-35,000; IA-65,000; PA-140,000; Ohio over 1 million.

The Rand Presidential Election Survey Panel study says 20% of those former Obama now Trump voters are hispanic and 44% of them are woman.

----

Some of the polls are obviously cooked, like the latest NBC which had Dem +13. But even the more legitimate polls are using a 2012 turnout model, which is fine because they have to start from somewhere, and then they weight the responses they are getting to reflect that model.

I honestly don't know enough about the business to be sure, but it would seem that it would be easy for the polls to miss a re-alignment.

And the re-alignment might not be large enough, in any event. It does seem to be there though.

Sue

I fell asleep in the top of the 9th last night and woke back up to see the last strike against the Giant's batter to end their season. The Giant's pitching must have been atrocious in that inning for the Cubs to beat them.

the generalisticly deplorable rich

lol ...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/10/12/russias_lavrov_so_many_pussies_around_the_presidential_campaign_on_both_sides_that_i_prefer_not_to_comment.html

Good job, people, good job.

Porchlight

For what it's worth, Rasmussen had her at an all time high (+7) on Monday, +5 yesterday and +4 today. 3-day tracking.

LAT shows her in the lead today for the first time in quite awhile, but by only .4%. Trump was +2 yesterday. 7-day tracking.

So, if I'm reading correctly, Rasmussen is showing that the immediate post-tape effect is wearing off, and LAT is still factoring it in. We won't really know what the full effects of tape+debate are for another day or so.

RCP does not show a single state poll conducted entirely post-debate.

And of course who knows what effect Wikileaks is having.

One thing to consider for the folks worried about the polls (that includes me). There are at least two election prediction models that are poll-independent and highly accurate for the last couple of decades (in real time) and also retroactively. They are even for the most part campaign-independent, relying on historical trends, the performance of the incumbent, and the early primary performance of the candidates. Both have Trump winning in a walk.

Allan Lichtman (13 Keys to the White House - and he HATES Trump): https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/

Helmut Norpoth's Primary Model: http://primarymodel.com/

These models had Obama winning in 2008 and 2012.

Sue

Porch,

I noticed that Johnson and Steyn have remained steady and that Hillary is decreasing again (not sure where her voters are going, nowhere?) and Trump has stabilized after dropping (where are his voters going?). Hopefully the bottom of his support has been reached and will begin to climb again. The votes aren't going 3rd party or at least not showing up in the polling right now.

Porchlight

Sue, that's what I'm hoping too. I expect a rebound in LAT tracking, and they did the RAND poll in 2012 which was one of the most accurate. Same methodology.

My above comment was a long way of saying that maybe campaign missteps and debate performances and polls and everything else have less effect on the outcome than we think. According to Norpoth, they have near zero effect on the outcome. The media is invested in a closely watched horse race, but ultimately the voters aren't.

the generalisticly deplorable rich

polls ...

Captain Hate

Hasn't the Republican party devolved into that representative of the McCain's, Collins, Flakes, Ayottes and Ryan's?

Yes, we effectively have no representation.

Romney's 47% comment was self fulfilling because Reagan won in a landslide. Willard wasn't comfortable addressing anybody who was in the tank for him because I never felt good about voting for him.

the generalisticly deplorable rich

the fairmodel has the GOP winning in a walk ... he uses economic inputs to predict the outcome.

Porchlight

That's the one I was missing, rich - thank you. I thought there were at least three.

Porchlight

I think that one is less accurate over the years than Lichtman and Norpoth, though.

derwill, yet another adorable, irredeemable deplorable

Sue, Trump had a temporary but rather major dive in the polls after the Khan thing, too, and there were a million stories on how he was finished, but he slowly went back up to where he was before, with a couple of polls showing him 2 pts ahead, but most 2-3 points behind. Hillary also had a temporary big drop after her curb dive, but then came back.

I have a theory on that. This election cycle the polls are only getting an abysmal 5% response rate. I think if something happens that pushes a hot button with you, and your caller ID shows a number that might be a poll, you're more likely to answer it than you would otherwise because you're angry or disturbed so much you want to voice that to somebody.

Sue

I want Trump to win as badly as y'all do, probably not for the same reasons, I still don't like him. Did y'all hear that SC justice on the 2nd amendment? We are one vote away from losing our 2nd amendment right. I have other issues that make me vote straight republican, but losing the SC to another justice from the left side of the aisle is my top priority in voting for Trump.

Truthbetold5

Trump trashing Republicans is not going to help the SC situation.

Porchlight

The response rate is significantly down from 2012, even.

People are tuned out. The media's credibility is at an all-time low.

And there is the secret Trump vote factor. I'm totally in the closet - I was less so for Romney - so I can see it. Trump does significantly better in online polling, which is closest to a voting booth. Most people don't respond to polls, period. But then if you're on your cell in public....or even at home in earshot of your Hillary voting spouse...you're even less likely to say you're voting Trump.

Some of the Johnson and Stein support in polls is probably Trump supporters "parking" their vote for safety until voting day. That is what Scott Adams now says he is doing (tongue in cheek of course).

Jim Eagle

I still say these Likely Voters far underestimate those who have not voted in the last 2 general elections. I find it hard to believe that Trump is getting the level of support in attendance at this rallies and they are only there for the "entertainment" value. Something doesn't add up and its the polling methodology.

derwill, yet another adorable, irredeemable deplorable

Another thing--Nigel Farage said he's met lots of people at the Trump rallies who told him they were voting for the very first time in their lives. These people are discounted by the polls because they are not likely voters.

The MSM has spent a lot of words and air dismissing the size of Trump rallies by saying most are people who've never voted and won't vote this time either. They seem to think it's his celebrity as a TV star that is drawing these people to come out and see, not his politics. Maybe. But if that is so, maybe they'll vote for him just because he's a TV star.

MAM

I would never tell anyone to give up - and unfortunately, very few of my friends were supporting Trump to begin with so no one would listen to me. One of my sons and my daughter are voting Trump, but my other two sons cancel them out. I am a worrier, and I just so badly want Hillary defeated. If Trump can rebound in 27 days, I will be the happiest person ever and will be delighted to eat crow!!

derwill, yet another adorable, irredeemable deplorable

Sorry, didn't mean to be redundant. Should have refreshed before I posted.

Miss Marple the Deplorable

Trump rally Ocala, Florida

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsE1EUtZgJ8

Porchlight

Right. There is no way that current polling, which is based in large part on 2012 turnout models, can catch a huge wave of first-time or irregular voters. If they manage to speak someone on the phone who says they are older than 22 and planning to vote for the first time, that person will never make it through the likely screen.

The_Donald on Reddit has hundreds and hundreds of comments from first-time voters.

It's weird, I have never seen one minute of The Apprentice. I don't think of Trump as a reality TV star - I think of him as a famous businessman. Almost the same thing I guess.

But at any rate if you watch or attend a rally, you can tell by crowd reactions that people are absolutely engaged in the politics, not just the celebrity. They know the issues and cheer accordingly. People speculated that no one in Mississippi would know who Farage was. Totally not the case. Everyone I talked to at the Austin rally was informed in precisely the same way we are here at JOM.

Sue

And there is the secret Trump vote factor.

Same argument was used in 08. People didn't want to say they weren't voting for the 1st ever black president, etc.

Anyway, I have to leave. I'll try to answer your question later about the tweet, Porch.

James D

Janet @ 11:50

Thanks for reposting that, it is great.

I thought this comment also is basically perfect:

(Trump) noticed them. He said, "I see you and acknlowedge that you are suffering." That's it. That's all he had to do, because it was more than anyone else was doing.

It is simply beyond me that nobody in the GOP leadership (or the Dems, for that matter) can grasp that.

It's not complex.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Wilson/Plame