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October 04, 2016



Once again


Their playbook is all played out. The tax thing works as filler only but not as a convincer. It doesn't gin up enthusiasm.

Trump rich. Lost a billion dollars. Might not have paid much in personal income taxes.

Most of America, in response to hearing this? BFD -- Bitch, you already told me he was a bullying racist ogre, didn't you? Read my lips: I don't give a damn!


Tax deductions from losses are too low because tax rates are too low because Trump took loss carry forward deductions based on real estate speculation under the lower taxes, which no one would do because the later tax deductions aren't big enough.

I now understand why they went to journalism school instead of starting a tech fortune and becoming billionaires themselves. Circular logic is fatal to computer programs (endless loops of doom).

Thomas Collins

Unfortunately, RG, the playbook is working fine. Clinton's lead in the RCP average in both the 2 and 4 way polls is in the upper threes now. Trump needs a win or Hill meltdown in the next debate. At this point, Pravda Media is so in the tank that I don't think anything that comes out of Wikileaks will help.

Thomas Collins

Five Thirty Eight is also trending Hill.


No reason for doom and gloom, but also no reason to think that Trump will win in a tidal wave in the manner in which he finished off the GOP opposition in the Acela primaries and in Indiana.


For poll watchers, ras has it tied. too much volatility for these to be measuring much of anything.

Dave (in MA)


Captain Hate

Fuck off, friendly skies:



A billion dollar loss? Does that include the money that his dad gave him??


Thomas Collins, I mean you no disrespect. But can you honestly tell me you expect the polling models to resemble 2012?

You think black voters, 25% of the needed votes Democrats crave, are going to vote in the same numbers for Hillary as they voted for Barack? You think all of them have forgotten about South Carolina in 2008?

If so, you don't know black voters too well.

So, I don't know why you give a damn about the Real Clear Politics polling. Almost all of them are following a 2012 model turnout *and* it's a virtual guarantee they will slightly adjust more to reality when the week of the vote occurs.

Polling has been used to shape and handle the voting public, it is not primarily a tool to inform us. That is only its secondary purpose. I'm convinced of that.

Clearly, the business incentive in the polling industry has made this so. They need and want a "race," a close sprint to the finish. This election cycle is the disruption of all of that. Trump is the quintessential disruptor. Thank goodness.

Trump wins in a landslide. That's my story and I'm sticking with it. People genuinely don't like Hillary. They've had to tar and feather Trump in an effort to even that out. It's not going to work.

Thomas Collins

I give a damn about RCP average and Five Thirty Eight Pols Plus, RG, because I think they are the most accurate predictors. As far as 2012 and black voters go, Trump can do better than Romney with black voters and still lose.

The polls were pretty good, in my opinion, at predicting Trump's strength in the GOP primaries. Nate Silver has acknowledged that he blew it in not paying enough attention to the actual polling data in the GOP primaries.

As far as disrespect goes, I never take strong disagreement with me as disrespect. My goal on blogs is to learn by stating my position and thinking about the positions of others. I have a tat to prove that I underestimated Trump in the primaries. I'd be happy to be proven wrong again.

Jim Eagle


Fox News just ran an anti-Hillary PAC ad about her role in Benghazi and right after here comes Danny Glover with a PSA about PBA (Pseudo Bulbar Affect) uncontrollable laughing and crying episodes. From Healthline.com website:

PBA can also result from traumatic brain injuries, brain tumors, ADHD, Grave’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, and Alzheimer’s disease.

Jim Eagle


Are those RCP polls likely voters? Are there any polls that have registered voters only or even voters that haven't voted in the last 2 or 3 general elections?

I still think there is an un-surveyed bloc of "very likely" voters that in that category above.

Captain Hate

I wish Dirk would retire so I could root against this asshole's team:


Old Lurker

I'm not saying the polls are right or wrong, or the average of them is right or wrong, or that some might get more right or wrong on any particular day.

But like RG, not a one of them is paid for by a group which does not have a dog in the race and I think we are long past the days of pretending that the pollsters and their clients are anything but whores when the price is right.

This is a binary election. The outcome will determine if we have a chance to survive or if those nine graphs in the earlier thread cement our march off the cliff.

We will not know the answer to that until all the real and pretend votes are tallied. Until then they are all just marketing the dog food to dogs who don't seem to like the taste.



We would sure like to see a picture of that tat:)

Just teasing.

I appreciate everyone's opinion about the polls, mostly because I have little confidence in my own.

I know one thing for sure. Given the size of the crowds Short Circuit is drawing (or paying to show up), people don't like the bitch.


This is a binary election. The outcome will determine if we have a chance to survive or if those nine graphs in the earlier thread cement our march off the cliff.

Anyone stocked the wine cellar at The Ledge?

Thomas Collins

I've sent out pics to those who text me, Buckeye. My number is S E V E N 8 ONE 2 FOUR 7 THREE 1 SIX 3. Text me and I'll return your text with a pic of my tat. I hear it's a treasured saved item on the smartphones of my JOM friends here who received the pic!

By the way, Buckeye, in regard to your remark about not seeing an Indians game in Cleveland for a long time, I have you beat! My last appearance at an Indians home game was when Municipal Stadium still housed the Indians!

Sandy--Make America Deplorable Again--Daze

"The Case Against “the Conservative Case. . .

October 3, 2016 by Publius Decius Mus 99 Comments

excellent. I stand with Decius.


I don’t know James Pethokoukis. But I know lots of “conservatives” just like him: eager, even giddy, to throw anyone ostensibly on their side to the Leftist wolves.

I’m tired of being shot in the back my “friends.” It’s high time to turn around and let them shoot me in the face, in frank acknowledgement that I am their enemy.

Truth is, there’s nothing “conservative” about any of these people. But who cares about the word anymore? If they want to fight like dogs over who gets that bone, let them have it. Read me out of “conservatism.” Actually, you can’t fire me—I quit! If “conservatism” requires going to the wall for open borders, foolish trade deals, endless war, and head-in-the-sand “optimism,” to say nothing of routine denunciation of “racism” that’s far more imagined than real, then I am not conservative. I’ll take “patriotic” and “sane” instead.

As those of us inclined toward this way of thinking desert, or are ejected from, what’s left of “conservatism,” the movement will accelerate its decades-long drift toward ever-closer collaboration with its ostensible opponent. Within the first four years of the second Clinton Administration, don’t be surprised to see “A Conservative Case for Reeducation Camps.” Perhaps James Pethokoukis will write it.

Beasts of England

RattlerGator rocks!! Woot!

Old Lurker

Perfect, Sandy.

Captain Hate on the iPhone

Maybe Bret Stephens will write it since he's written similar howlers in the past.

Thomas Collins

RCP averages a group of polls, JiB. Most polls now use likely voter. I haven't delved into how the polls determine likely voters.

I doubt we'll see what we saw in the Acela primaries and in Indiana, namely, Trump outperforming the polls. Pravda Media wasn't all in against Trump at that point. In addition, Cruz and Kasich were tapped out, while The Hill will have GOTV/fraud money. I realize that if it's close, a 1 or 2 percent Trump factor in battleground states could make the difference. I think there is a small hidden Trump factor, but I think it will be neutralized by the Dem GOTV/fraud factor. I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

Captain Hate

Further evidence that the Apocalypse is imminent:



As far as 2012 and black voters go, Trump can do better than Romney with black voters and still lose.

* * *

I have a tat to prove that I underestimated Trump in the primaries. I'd be happy to be proven wrong again.

Posted by: Thomas Collins | October 04, 2016 at 10:25 AM

You and me both, TC.

Personally, I think they are working extremely hard to mask the importance to the Democrats of the black vote and I think, in secret, this is why Trump is so confident. You combine a depressed African American turnout with a doubling (or tripling, which I fully expect, if not more) of black votes for Trump and there is no way that isn't fatal for Hillary. I don't see how she wins it in any circumstance under that practically guaranteed scenario. The race-baiting, kneeling, BlackLivesMatter nonsense is not generating enthusiasm for Hillary. It simply isn't, and it won't.

Old Lurker

It would be a pleasant surprise if Trump wins big in spite of it all. That would offer more hope for the binary outcome.

Sadly, it is more likely going to come down to a squeaker one way or the other and history will record that as almost funny given that all the marbles go to the side which wins. Who knew the great American experiment would come down to a coin toss.

But make no mistake about it that that is the case.

clarice b. for Brainiac

A must read:http://spectator.org/kerensky-was-a-bum/

Janet S.


The Morning After -

"The entire discussion of building a wall on the southern border has finally been put to bed, once and for all."...

"The time has finally come to grant all illegals and their families full amnesty. ...We are about to welcome millions of new citizens, most of which will feel they owe a debt of gratitude to Hillary and will forevermore vote Democrat."...

"The mainstream media is in full celebration mode, knowing they won, and that they successfully represented the very best interests of our Big Government and everything else that goes along with it. CNN, MSNBC, NBC, CBS, ABC, the New York Times will party like drunken sailors. Plus, they have finally showed the world where the real power lies in the United States."...

"We will quickly forget about Trump’s idea of negotiating better trade deals; we will keep things just as they are."...

"ObamaCare will get even more onerous."...

"Climate change will be considered ‘fact’ and ’established science’, and there will be no further public debate permitted on the subject."...

"Loretta Lynch will likely have her job as attorney general extended and will continue to turn the other cheek when Democrats commit serious crimes, but she will vigorously enforce law and extract penalties for those of conservative leanings."...

" the Supreme Court will be altered forever"...


Pretty much sums it up Janet.


New thread.


I've noticed that when the MSM develops a meme to drumbeat for a week, Trump dives in the traditional polls for awhile, but then he slowly rebounds. I can think of three possible explanations for this:

1) these polls are being deliberately massaged during the meme period in an effort to drive public opinion, in an effort to turn Dem hopes into reality.

2) a large portion of the electorate can't make up their minds, so when they hear the latest Trump is Hitler meme they decide they'll vote against him, but then the meme fades and their feeble memories fade along with it.

3) the response rates to the polls are so dismal--I've read as little as 5-10% --that when the next version of a Trump is Hitler meme comes spewing out of the MSM, the small subset of the population that becomes enraged by it are more likely to answer the phone this time and let someone know how they aren't going to vote for him because MSNBC said he called a fat woman Miss Piggy.

The thing is the LA Times tracking, which has been polling the same 3200 people on a rolling basis from the beginning hasn't gyrated up and down nearly as much as the more traditional polls, and has been holding pretty steady around a 4% Trump lead for quite awhile now. It doesn't make sense that the MSM memes could move opinion so easily with the population in general, yet the LA Times' 3200 consistently have been immune to the manipulation.

Now their 3200 sample could be skewed, but at least you can see if there is movement within it. Or not.

Appalled (Alt-Moderate)

I stand with TM on this one. The law is, you lose money, you get to carry forward the losses as NOLs. Basic tax law. Trump's no good very bad 80s and 90s were as well documented as everything else about the guy. This story is a yuge nothingburger

The Democrats habit of lying about tax returns, and depending on the rational ignorance of the people about tax law is going to cost their Wall Street buddies big one of these days, as all it does is increase the allure of the flat tax, which is really going to upend the tax consulting industry.


I've sent out pics to those who text me, Buckeye.

Buckeye, please don’t trade pictures tit for tat.

Carlos Danger

I can send you a picture.


Ha !!!


Carlos, you are welcome for the set-up line. ;-)

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