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January 07, 2017

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Porchlight

Cocktails at 6pm regardless.

My brandy Manhattans have been going down real smooth on recent evenings. :)

I've said it before, but if anyone is serious about a real live JOM party sometime in 2017, name the date and place and I'll be there. Can offer to host in FL or MN, depending on date.

jimmyk

That 2:53 link was a lot more insightful than I expected.

Yes, though it would have been better if it hadn't been accompanied by an auto-play video entitled "Trump mocks disabled reporter," as if that story hasn't been discredit six different ways from Sunday. But then Newsweak wouldn't be Newsweak.

Porchlight

James D,

FWIW, Trump campaign guy on The_Donald says that Kellyanne "cracked the Trump code," meaning (I think) that she understood him and could speak his language in ways that other campaign staff couldn't. I don't know if she has a business background or what, but I thought it was interesting.

matt, deplore me if you must

A large part of our customer base was the automotive supply chain. Whole factories make nothing but tire pressure sensors and/or the key fobs that lock your car door; or the flex circuitry that goes from the instrument panel to your brake lights. You get the idea.

The US economy is very heavily dependent upon the automotive industry for this reason. Hundreds of thousands of jobs are involved and it all comes down to split second timing.

As an example, a number of years ago Ford's factory in Chihuahua, Mexico forgot to order one of our products, of which they used @ 10 drums/day. This was before decent supply chain management.

They chartered a 727 to pick it up at LAX and fly it to Mexico. We were off the hook at the time because no suppliers were really managing their customers inventories yet. Now the suppliers have staff with bar code readers that can tell if the customer needs 2,000 pieces or 200,000 that uplink to databases that automatically replenish inventory as needed.

God forbid if the Rooskies or Chinese hack those systems.

But if that plant had shut down, 10 plants making cars would have shut down for the lack of radios. You can't deliver a shiny new Ford without a radio, after all, or brakes, etc.

It is a huge, complex enterprise and every major manufacturer has their preferred supply chains. Car sales have been at extraordinary levels. At some piont they are going to slow down. That is going to hurt, as we lost cell phones, and notebook computers and even a lot of medical electronics manufacturing.

All because of the China price. And with that China price you get China quality. The planned obsolescence cycle used to be 3-4 years. Now it is 6 months.

hrtshpdbox

..where would we be at this point in time had ANY of the other 17 Reps been elected instead?

Oh, I think five or six of them would have worked out just fine, i.e. the same "better than Hillary" rationale would apply. Whether voters looked at two flawed candidates that they didn't like and chose the one who just might get something done, or whether there was a populist surge a la Reagan in '80 is unknown and unknowable; it could be either, or both, and it doesn't matter. Trump will appoint conservatives to the Court, and that's pretty much enough as far as I'm concerned. I always thought he'd come up with a "Mexico's going to beef up security on their side of the border, and we will on our side a little bit too, but we've signed such a great trade deal with Mexico and that's so much better better than a wall anyway". Maybe not, though, maybe he really wants to start pouring concrete - in terms of a president's potential effect on the economy, foreign policy and national security, "the wall" is small potatoes anyway. There's no question, in my mind, that on trade and taxes and regulations and jobs, Trump will likely be a great net positive for the country. Of course, if he and the "GOPe" hammer out compromises on the great national issues, for me that will be just hunky dory.

Buckeye

Porchlight

KellyAnne has a law degree and poly sci undergrad.

She worked 8 seasons picking blueberries as a kid, I think that is where she figured out how things "work".

Old Lurker

Disagree. I don't think any of the other 17 would have beaten Clinton.

Jim Eagle

I think if you read "Art of the Deal" and sort of follow on to his career, you will conclude that he is more an "opportunist" than a "strategist" in his business thinking. I can relate to that.

At my old firm, you knew when someone on the rise got summarily demoted without knowing it when they were promoted to head up Strategic Planning. Or became the subject "of a future announcement".

He is a builder first and all those other failures were IMO because he left his comfort zone.

As a result I think I can understand his executive persona. His only weakness is that as POTUS he can't afford to be so selective for opportunity when even the most unlikely enterprise could be critical to his success. He will have to deal with a lot of issues he may not feel are worth his priority but they need attention.

He will have to sweat the little things or it could all go pear-shaped.

Stephanie despicable me

Glad that gave you the giggles KK...

I just calls em as I don't see them. :)

And yes, I bet they are inflated in the next few months.

She can have mine. I'm trying to qualify with insurance for a reduction. Which just happens to come with a side benefit of putting them back where they were when I was 20. ;)

======

""There's no question, in my mind, that on trade and taxes and regulations and jobs, Trump will likely be a great net positive for the country""

Ok. what happened to hrtshpdbox and should we be worried?

Account Deleted

Great insight, Matt. May I forward your comment to a few allies around here in Berkeley?

Cecil Turner

Think less "trickle down" and more "ripple effect." Mr. Trump is tossing pebbles into a very large pond to make long lasting ripples.

Yes, and I think we're all in agreement those were an efficient use of the bully pulpit/power of persuasion.

However (and this is a big however) part of the argument he made was a promise of a protective tariff and tax relief (and implications of an improved business environment). I'm not sure the tariff means all that much, but the tax relief is critical, and that means passing a law or two that fits into a budget.

From what I can see of the ongoing budget battle, they've got a one vote margin for repeal of the budget parts of Obamacare through reconciliation. Which you'd think would be the easy part.

I think they can pass all the tax relief and business related bills they want, if Trump is involved and energetic. But it's going to take him, personally, to keep the GOP senators in line, let alone talk over the 8-9 Dem defectors they'll need for anything not directly related to reconciliation. And to my mind, that's the kind of stuff he ought to be talking about (some, anyway).

And again, I'm not saying he's not doing it. I'm just not seeing it. Pence is involved. And maybe DJT is behind the scenes, or just getting started, or not wanting to step on Obama's toes until inauguration, or working on EOs, or whatever. But the main event is legislation, and the bully pulpit is the tool on the margin.

hrtshpdbox

Lurker, we'll have to agree to disagree on that one, as I think most of them would have beat her (I also think plenty of Democrats would've beat Trump, too). Again, though, no one can ever know for sure.

Changing topics, real quick, I'd like to ask JOM'ers what to make of the "pizzagate" story. I have a British friend who is convinced that there is indeed a liberal Democrat pedophilia ring, and that the owner of that shop (as well as Podesta and Hillary) are all in on it. He sent me some disturbing website materials, and he thinks there's just too many situations involved for it be coincidence or, as he puts it, an "alt right conspiracy fever". What say you, is there fire behind that smoke?

Old Lurker

Jack, not what you meant I'm sure, but whenever I hear Presidents need to sweat the small things, I am reminded of Jimmy Carter having to approve who played on his tennis court.

Account Deleted

CT:

As we know, absence can make the heart grow fonder.

Mike Pence is Mr. Trump's flack vest. He knows the rules in Congress. And he has his marching orders.

I don't know if there is a congress critter in either house who has the brass kiwis to confront Mr. Trump face to face once the sausage casings have been prepared for stuffing, which is Pence's function.

We'll see if this is an accurate conjecture on my part, no?

Enjoying your words.

Account Deleted

CT:

The threats of tariff etc... true enough it sounds bully-ish from the pulpit. But it is also a signal about his bullishness on USA.

With Mr. Trump signals aren't nuanced. They are like those warnings our warship gave the Iranians in Persian Gulf recently.

The president's job is to influence. The VP's job is to preside over the Senate. How long has it been since a VP actually presided there and transmitted presidential influence, save for Dick Cheney and what he did to line up support for Iraq?

Musing. Might be totally off-base here.

Porchlight

hrtshpdbox, pizzagate is a bit of a sensitive topic around here, but I will say, speaking for myself only, if one ventures down the rabbit hole, there's some crazy tinfoil stuff and some genuinely weird, even scary stuff.

The word when Sandusky went to the big house was that the Penn State ring was part of a much larger ring that went into high circles. Given the little that we know about Epstein's island, the DC Madam, Weiner's exploits, Denny Hastert (an old friend of Tony Podesta's according to Podesta's own email in Wikileaks), and Slick's long history, there could be a lot of there there, but no hard evidence as yet. Too soon to tell.

Old Lurker

Careful, Porch. Soon you will be stalked by our troll who will demand what you know about Richard Pearle.

hrtshpdbox

New thread.

Porchlight

Tricky, OL. :)

I'll also say this. There are several sex rings operating right here in central Texas, with the Formula 1 racetrack being ground zero. The track is an international millionaires' playground, with DFW, Houston, and the Mexican border just a few hours away.

I've heard people mention it as a "oh yeah, I heard about that" kind of thing but no one bats an eye. Not much law enforcement can do since there are very very deep pockets discouraging them from any interference with the racetrack goings on.

It's common knowledge among local teachers that a school has recently been opened for the children of these young women (but there are also young men).

This is from three years ago:
http://www.dailytexanonline.com/news/2013/11/14/increase-in-human-trafficking-could-happen-during-the-formula-1-weekend-police-say

If this can go on and be virtually ignored/taken for granted in Texas, it can certainly go on among the DC/international elite worldwide.

Jim Eagle

CT,

Solid points and he has for the last month and half addressed those in his "Contract for America - My 100 Day Plan". He gave a lengthy speech about it at Gettysburg. I provide the link below. Now, you can quibble about details but those will be generated by Congress based on his executive direction. Now won't that be nice to see Congress be allowed to do their job and provide the legislation and laws for the executive to execute and/or enforce?

I don't remember any recent Presidency except GHW Bush relying on the Heritage Foundation's manuscript for his term in office, where the Executive has outlined in summary his agenda for the 1st 100 days.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3217126-CONTRACT-for-the-VOTER.html#document/p1

Lets see how he performs. And it requires Congress not a "pen and a phone".

Sandy Daze

Asked under the heading "Questions I have not seen asked (nor answered) elsewhere":

Is it just me or are the best commercials on TV these days all from the insurance companies ?

Was thinking about this the other day in one of those rare instances watching a non-DVRed program. On came this commercial from Farmers:
Farmers Insurance Commercial 2016 Funny Dogs This commercial is just one of Farmers many many funny commercials.

Then there are the man Geico commercials, the caveman and those with Maxwell the pig ! (Digression, I wonder how many muslimbs buy Geico insurance...?) Not to mention the geckko commercails...

There are a series of Allstate "Mayhem" commercials and those with Dennis Haysbert are sometimes serious, and sometimes funny.

Then there are those Aflac ads with the duck ! I had never seen that one with Guy Fiere (yes, that Guy, from Triple-D), until looking for this link. Wow. Good stuff.

Now, these ads are not like the USMC ads, which never tire, but Marines are selling insurance of a different sort !

RattlerGator

I'm finding it increasingly hard to keep up and suspect I'll have to give up on the idea entirely, but helicoptering in periodically will have to do.

But you sap suckers have your hooks in me.

Dammit.

Sandy Daze

RG - You're young, you'll get over it !

;~))

Clarice Feldman

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poll-schumers-make-america-sick-again-slogan-bombs/article/2611308

Make America Sick Again is working--just not the way the Dems thought it would.(Maybe they're working with former Republican crack campaign consultants,_)

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