Chatting With Fish About Water

When is something that looks like "reflexive partisanship" actually a reflection of the viewer? Ah, well. Here is James Hohmann of the WaPo, April 11:

The Daily 202: Reflexive partisanship drives polling lurch on Syria strikes

THE BIG IDEA: More Americans than ever view the news through red-colored glasses.

In 2013, when Barack Obama was president, a Washington Post-ABC News poll found that only 22 percent of Republicans supported the U.S. launching missile strikes against Syria in response to Bashar al-Assad using chemical weapons against civilians.

A new Post-ABC poll finds that 86 percent of Republicans support Donald Trump’s decision to launch strikes on Syria for the same reason. Only 11 percent are opposed.

-- Overall, a bare 51 percent majority of U.S. adults support the president’s action in our new poll. In 2013, just 30 percent supported strikes. That swing is driven primarily by GOP partisans. For context, 37 percent of Democrats back Trump’s missile strikes. In 2013, 38 percent of Democrats supported Obama’s plan. That is well within the margin of error.

Independents are split evenly, with 46 percent backing Trump’s decision and 45 percent opposing it.

Har de har, those partisan rubes on the Republican side! Joining in the merriment and self-congratulatory backslapping were Kevin Drum and Steve Benen at MSNBC. Benen:

On Syria, ‘reflexive partisanship’ doesn’t apply to both parties

And Drum:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

Each delivers a deep data dive by, hmm, recycling the same info presented in the WaPo. Here is Benen's thoughtful analysis of the Republican swing from 22% supporting strikes to 86%:

That’s an astounding shift in attitudes, and partisan instincts almost certainly explain the rapid change. Republican voters opposed Obama, so they had no use for his plan to attack the Assad regime, and Republican voters generally back Trump, so they support last week’s strikes.

But look a little closer at the details, and the asymmetry between the parties becomes more obvious: four years ago, 38% of Democratic voters backed Obama’s proposed strikes in Syria, and now, 37% of Democratic voters support Trump doing the same thing. In other words, there’s been effectively no change.

No change in their views even though we have a new President Democrats have vowed to resist and the Obama deal with Putin on Syria has collapsed? That's not counterintuitive and worthy of explanation?

Well, there's no attempted explanation from Benen. Meanwhile, Drum was just enjoying a Friday morning imagining the Democrats as the party of sweet reason unruffled by partisan passion so he provides nothing more.

However! I have been enjoying a Saturday morning. But before I vex anyone with tedious facts or cursory research, could I just note an obvious alternative explanation that acknowledges partisan behavior on both sides? 

Brace yourself! In 2013 and today, Dems are the antiwar party. Their raw, baseline support for military action against Syria under an unspecified leader might have been, say, 25% in 2013. Add in the fact that they trust their guy Obama and the poll number gets a 12% boost to 37%.

Republicans have more of a history of favoring military action, so let's say that in 2013 their baseline support for striking Syria might have been 40%. But they don't trust Obama to see anything through to a conclusion so they apply a 20% discount, bringing Republican support down to 20%.

Flash forward three and a half years. Assad has obviously cheated on his chemical deal, Syrian refugees are straining the EU, Russia is newly assertive and empowered in the Middle East - even Democrats will admit that maybe Obama's red-line waffling in 2013 was less than a triumph. A NY Times snippet from April 9 2017:

Even before last week’s chemical attack, many veterans of Mr. Obama’s team considered his handling of Syria his biggest failing and expressed regret that their administration did not stop a war that has left more than 400,000 dead and millions displaced.

Many of them even praised President Trump for taking the very action that Mr. Obama refused to take four years ago, by ordering a cruise missile strike against Syria. “Donald Trump has done the right thing on Syria,” Anne-Marie Slaughter, the director of policy planning in Mr. Obama’s State Department, wrote on Twitter. “Finally!! After years of useless handwringing in the face of hideous atrocities.”

Well, then. Hypothetically, maybe the now-chastened Democrats have a newfound (or newly re-discovered) respect for quick cruise missile strikes. Under an unspecified leader, maybe their support for strikes against Syria would be 50%. Put Hillary in charge and that number could rise to 60%! But she's not in charge - Trump is, so a 12% "Resist" discount brings Dem support down to 38%, as published.

Of course, I am only guessing at what support might look like if Hillary were in charge. But are Benen and Drum really arguing that nothing of consequence has changed in Syria and that, although Democrats have vowed to "Resist" Trump on everything else, on matters of war and peace they are focused calmly on the facts and remain indifferent to whether our leadership is provided by Obama, Clinton or Trump? C'mon - who else believes that?

OK, I don't. Obviously, the anti-war movement shifted quite a bit after Jan 20, 2009.

But pressing on: for the Republican side, if baseline Dems today are at 50% support for a strike on Syria then baseline Republicans ought to be higher, so let's say around 70%. But now, instead of subtracting an Obama discount of 20% we add a Trump Bump of 16%. Et voila, after adjusting for the partisan shading on each side, we get the published result of 86% Republican support. The Republican surge in support combines a shift in circumstances in Syria plus a big boost from dropping the Obama discount and adding the Trump Bump; the Dems coincidentally march in place by offsetting a grim sense of reality in Syria with a grim sense of reality in the White House. Mistaking that offsetting coincidence for non-partisan wisdom is, well, not wise. Hence the chat with fish about whether they are aware of water and know how it feels.

But hey, I am just making up numbers and I promised some cursory research. So here we go! Spoiler alert - this gets ugly. Lots of 'oopsies'.

 Back in 2013 the Syrian chemical attacks took place on Aug 21. Early reports came out a few days later and there was a week of handwringing in Washington and global capitals. The British Parliament balked, the Russians stalled UN action, and on Aug 30 Obama delivered a speech calling for military action if backed by a Congressional vote.

Believe it or not - the WaPo's James Hohmann missed this, as did his echo chamber - the WaPo polled promptly. Their results, published Sept 3, do not show "reflexive partisanship" at all. Ooops.

Q: The United States says it has determined that the Syrian government has used chemical weapons in the civil war there. Given this, do you support or oppose the United States launching missile strikes against the Syrian government?

Dems were 42/54 on the Support/Oppose line;

Reps were 43/55;

Indys were 30/66.

A week passed. Intermediate polling published Sept 9 is accompanied by this headline:

Opposition to Syria airstrikes rises as Republicans shift sharply against action

That is a precursor to the poll that actually caught James Hohmann's canny eye, which was published Sept 17 with this headline:

Poll: Americans strongly back diplomatic solution on Syria but give Obama low marks

Oh, well then - after Kerry's "unbelievably small" sales job for a military strike got booed off, Obama and Kerry worked the chemical weapons deal with Putin, the wreckage of which we see today. Here was the party breakdown several weeks in:

Dems: 38/50 Support/Oppose a military strike

Reps: 22/67

Indys: 30/64. (My goodness, do these independents read and react to the news at all?)

In any case, the "reflexive partisanship" in 2013 followed two weeks of failed salesmanship by Obama and Kerry. The anti-war President of the anti-war party could not deliver a Democratic majority so Republicans ran for cover. No kidding. Does this result really surprise Drum, Benen, Hohmann or anyone else?

Let's close with one more "Oops" moment and note that the 2017 version of the question names the President (possibly prompting partisan puffery) and surely prompts a bit more outrage and martial ardor by citing civilian targets:

Q: Do you support or oppose President Trump’s decision to launch a missile strike on a Syrian air base in retaliation for the Syrian government using chemical weapons against civilians?

Dems: 37/59 Support/Oppose

Reps: 86/11

Mods: 46/45

Contrast that with the 2013 question, where the victims are unspecified and Obama is not mentioned:

Q: The United States says it has determined that the Syrian government has used chemical weapons in the civil war there. Given this, do you support or oppose the United States launching missile strikes against the Syrian government?

To belabor the obvious - the 2017 poll did not occur after three weeks of discussion and public handwringing.

So - comparing a quick reaction 2017 poll phrased differently from a 2013 poll that followed three weeks of debate and denunciation may not be sound social science. The increase of support by independents from 30% to 46% from 2013 to 2017 might have served as a bit of a tip that something other than partisan posturing was in play, if Mr. Hohmann had remembered to publish the 2013 data point. Ooops again.

Or, Democrats Rule, Republicans Drool! People who talk about confirmation bias are just selling something, amirite?

DO enjoy the weekend. Please.

Comments

[Old Lurker]

Razzle Dazzle Man, Henry.

[James D]

From the pathetic, failing New York Daily News, where the sports is every bit as politicized as the rest of the paper:

Giants fans can watch Big Blue play while fighting off a turkey-induced food coma this year.

For the first time in franchise history, the Washington football team — which bears a Native American as its logo and has an offensive nickname — will host a Thanksgiving Day game, according to the Washington Post. And the squad is slated to face Big Blue for the Thursday night matchup.

I think Dan Snyder is a clown (and a complete jackass, according to people I know who've personally had to work with him), but I am behind him 1,000% on refusing to change the Redskins' name.

[Threadkiller]

Speaking of which, James:

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/opinion/the-conversation/sd-how-will-sdsu-vote-on-the-aztec-warrior-20170419-htmlstory.html

[narciso]

Eddie haskell is my new moniker for him.

[Miss Marple]

As predicted, a complete cross section of America here at Ss.

[Miss Marple]

The computer which does the take a number system is messed up, so numbers are being called out of order by the clerks. The natives are restless so we had an announcement but people didn't listen so are still complaining.

[Miss Marple]

Now we had an explanation of the number system.

[Miss Marple]

There are lots of tattoos here.

[henry]

I'm sure a bunch honest types in for their disability payments.

[Jim Eagle]

MM,

Bet most there are on the "disability" scam.

[henry]

;)

[Buckeye]

There are lots of tattoos here.

There to sign up for "disability".

[Clarice Feldman]

according to today's WaPo Rs ought to be terrified --they're coming "perilously close" to losing their Congressional majority.

[narciso]

The CBS pie e about the molehunt, quelled surprise is inaccurate, I imagine the number of people who have access to these family jewels, is rather small, like the suspects in the prisoner.

[jimmyk]

Anyone ready for more schadenfreude?

http://pagesix.com/2017/04/19/hillary-camp-scrambling-to-find-out-who-leaked-embarrassing-info/

[narciso]

They didn't note the sarcasm in rush's voice, was it this insane in Nixon's time, or did the fact that they held congress a restrainer.

[Threadkiller]

I don't like hearing "numbering system" and "tattoos" mentioned regarding a government office.

[rse]

clarice-ca reader sent me this http://dailytrojan.com/2017/04/19/washington-post-ceo-students-applying-fake-news-label-attack-truth/

wapo is no paragon of truth but loses effectiveness without deference

[Jim Eagle]

henry,

Razzle Dazzle man made his announcements in London, henry. Nice of him to share with us while toiling along the Thames.

And whatever respect I had for

[Buckeye]

I don't like hearing "numbering system" and "tattoos" mentioned regarding a government office.

I bet if MM sticks around long enough, she too will hear them tell someone to sit down and STFU.

At least this time it won't be me:)

[Old Lurker]

It was not this insane during Watergate.

The crazies were mostly us Boomers, but DC still had mature WWII vets on the Hill and while partisan, they were more patriotic by a mile than Progs and even GOPe are today.

Forty years of dumbing down and rewriting world history has had the desired effect.

[Threadkiller]

If you subtract about 1,000 posts eliminated by Kill File, is the current 1795 posts a JOM record or not?

During Scorekeeper's heyday, he never ruled out all of my trollish birther responses to the non-trollish after-birther arm waving when it came to setting records.

If that helps. ;-)

[James D]

On April 27, Clinton’s top aides are attending a “thank-you party” at the apartment of Charles Myers. The source added, “Everybody will be eyeing everyone else suspiciously.”

What a fun event that will surely be.

It puts me in mind of those sting operations the police sometimes run to catch people with outstanding warrants - they send out fake letters telling people they've won money or something, or were nominated for a community award or whatever, and once everyone is there, they lock the doors and arrest everyone.

[narciso]

Magic 8ball says yes,

https://pjmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2017/04/19/is-oreillys-firing-really-about-trump/

[Jim Eagle]

....had for Joni Ernst went bye-bye with her comments on Trump and weekends and golf. Pretty ironic coming from a member of a club that works only part of the time in April on the People's urgent business.....

[Old Lurker]

Narc, this line in your 9:49 explains exactly what happened to Bret Baier's show starting last summer. Femall.

"If I were Fox talent right now, I'd be very nervous and especially careful about saying anything too positive about Trump. I'd remember to add a few negatives, maybe more than a few, to undercut any approving statements about the president or his policies, just like they do it on CNN. The Murdoch boys will be watching. "

[Old Lurker]

Jack, as I did the math last night, Joni gets to work 7 days of 30 in April, and Trump works 30/30 starting at 5am.

[Old Lurker]

And even on the golf course, do you have any doubt that Trump is working working working with real opinion learders vs Obama playing only with staff or celebs.

[jimmyk]

It puts me in mind of those sting operations the police sometimes run

Heh, though in this case they better damn well show up, and with a smile, as anyone not there will be a prime suspect.

[Old Lurker]

Jimmy, the person who does not show up is the rat.

I do like that movie scene where all the bad guys are seated at a round table as the big boss walks behind them with a baseball bat...

[narciso]

The untouchables, there was a similar setup in the departed.

[JimNorCal]

"You don't have to like AC or BOR to realize how badly they're both being treated."

Wasn't Rush denied the right to bid on a sports team at one point?

[henry]

More detail on the "new' health deal. Looks like a total cave by the Freedom Caucus.

[jimmyk]

This Missouri church vs state case is interesting. Looks like only the wise Latina and Notorious RGB will vote against the Constitution.

http://www.scotusblog.com/2017/04/argument-analysis-justices-leaning-toward-ruling-trinity-lutheran-merits/

If Trinity Lutheran wins, it will make the obvious point that the Constitution is not anti-religion.

[Old Lurker]

Sure looks like a Better Way to me, Henry.

Would not want to pull anything out by the roots, doncha know.

[JimNorCal]

"Posted by: henry | April 20, 2017 at 08:56 AM"

I persist in thinking that time is on our side, at least more so than not.

[Miss Marple]

Now I got to see a guy at the window who typed a bunch of st uff in the computer, so am waiting now for my name to be called. Then I have to be interviewed.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Story for Porch on the Berkeley commie running UT Austin.

[Miss Marple]

Thug apparel count is 8

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

So what is different about AHCA from ACA?

Every provision mentioned except the waiver:
1. Guarantees health insurance will continue to cost a fortune.
2. Maintains and now makes it official for both parties that health care is entirely a federal run show and;
3. Makes health "insurance" become not insurance but a public/private welfare plan most people have to pay for themselves.

BTW, if Roberts held Barrycare unconstitutional on commerce clause grounds but constitutional only on the grounds it hinged on the taxing power of the Feds, if the Reps undo the mandate or at least the fine for not having insurance have they accidentally put a SCOTUS poison pill in the thing?

[henry]

Iggy, that would be nice. Have the Chamber of Cronies "experts" better way themselves out of their handouts.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Let me answer my own question.
No. The question was, is a scheme in which a mandate commanding all buy insurance constitutional and Roberts said it was not based on the commerce clause but was based on the taxing power.

Absent a mandate or a tax/fine presumably he would then find it no longer violates the commerce clause.

However, absent a mandate/fine and keeping those other provisions how does it not blow up even faster than Barrycare?

[Clarice Feldman]

Feather passer--violent attacker:https://milo.yiannopoulos.net/2017/04/eric-clanton-professor/

[Captain Hate]

Wasn't Rush denied the right to bid on a sports team at one point?

Yes, part interest in the Philthadelphia Iggles iirc; which I would consider a very unconservative thing to do but far be it for me to tell Rush how to spend his jack. Rush was set up on this by the Mormon cocksucker who used to run MSG and the Knicks; I'm to lazy to look up his name but he was a nasty piece of shit whom Rush was ill advised to be dealing with in the first place.

[jimmyk]

Since we've been talking about Coulter, a reminder of the brilliant simplicity of her health care plan:

Congress passes a law, pursuant to its constitutional power to regulate interstate commerce, that says: "In America, it shall be legal to sell health insurance on the free market. This law supersedes all other laws, taxes, mandates, coverage requirements, regulations or prohibitions, state or federal.”

http://www.anncoulter.com/columns/2017-03-29.html

[Captain Hate]

Errrr too lazy...

[Jack is Back! (Overlooking the East River and Roosevelt Island)]

CH,

I thought it was to save the St. Louis Rams? He was joining a syndicate. Sticks in my mind for some reason.

[Clarice Feldman]

Something must be going on here--presidential motorcade passed by my house twice this morning (could be Trumpfamily members ofrveep or the president) Several embassies around here--most likely Malaysian or Italian--haven't checked Trump schedule today,

[Porchlight]

Iggy, sounds about right. This doofus sadly isn't alone; most of the people under him are equally leftist, including my department's director. Fenves actually reins it in a bit more than she does. He also has a better handle on punctuation and grammar, or at least a better editor.

[James D]

JiB, I remember it that way, too

[matt, deplore me if you must]

Can someone send out a search party for TM? 1800+ comments on this thread?

[Porchlight]

Trump schedule for today:

10:30 am || Receives his daily intelligence briefing

Noon || Announces a trade practices investigation

2:00 pm || Meets with National Security Advisor H. R. McMaster

3:00 pm || Begins meetings with Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni of Italy

3:50 pm || Holds a joint press conference with Gentiloni

All times Eastern
Live stream of press conference at 3:50 pm

[Captain Hate]

You guys are correct on the Rams; Dave Checketts is who set him up.

[Clarice Feldman]

So that's it--the escort took the Italian Ambassador to the Wh and back--Porch.

[narciso]

He aS on Twitter some time last night, pointing a number of things.

[Captain Hate]

Per matt's statement, everyone using a touchscreen device should be grateful for the last page link on the first page.

[James D]

Dave Checketts is who set him up.

So it wasn't enough that he helped screw up the Knicks.

Maybe it's just a curse - everyone and everything even tangentially connected to that franchise sooner or later turns to crap.

[narciso]

Yes full admiral ackbar.

[Old Lurker]

Iggy, if that is where we go with terminating Obamacare on "Day 1", then what was one of the Pillar Justifications to vote for Trump and the GOP will now be reduced to "Well. Hillary's fix would have been worse." (as if the truck doesn't get to single payer this way, just slower than the Progs wanted.)

I chalk that up as a big win for the Uniparty and a big loss for the good guys, and it does not bode well for bold action on the tax system.

Sure it seems like over reaction on my part, but a failure to reverse course on a big-government-welfare-state mentality vs a return to individual responsibility and to get in it's place a small change in direction and speed....sucks.

Better go do my weekly inspection on the Ledge and check the bar supplies.

[Old Lurker]

To expand...since I live in either MD or MA, the chance of either of those states asking for a waiver of relief from the mandates is zero. In that case I'm not sure anything changes for me under that list Henry posted at 10:07.

Thanks for nuthin.

[JimNorCal]

JiB sleeps in his own bed tonight? Excellent!
Wish Mrs JiB good luck driving on the mean streets of NYC.

[Thomas Collins]

Stay off the ledge, OL. Anything that helps the red states is fine! We need healthy red states for when blue states turn full throttle into a combination of the worst of North Korean totalitarianism and sharia law fascism, and we need to move.

Of course, as to whether the red staters will let us in at that point. . . .

[henry]

we already need a wall on our southern border.

[Old Lurker]

:-) TC.

I wish Nantucket would ask to join another state, but there is not a Red State within island-floating distance I'm afraid.

The whole scheme was to remove enough big government from the necks of the Red States to create so much growth and prosperity than some Blue States would change course, and together the explosion in prosperity might refloat enough boats to think about the debt and unfunded liabilities. Short of a massive tide of growth, as many here have said how hard it will be to deal with the damage already done...but at least Trump had a shot.

If the ACA is a cave; and if the Tax Code continues to look like a slow-mo cave too, then there is not enough good that Trump can do to float enough boats to avoid the inevitable.

Since Progs never ever ever change their goals, once Trump is defanged and the boats are burned, the Progs will just pick up where they left off. Sure the Trump changes in regs and judges will make potholes for them, but that's nothing in the life of a long march.

It ain't rocket science.

[Old Lurker]

Henry, so far GOPe has shown no willingness to fund that wall on the Southern Border, and until Trump reveals how he can get around that new found power of the purse, that Pillar Justification too is in doubt or at least at risk.

[henry]

Walker hasn't built one either OL

[henry]

OL, message from Chicago:

Remind OL that the Better Way is by and large a "My cronies now, yours have had their turn." gambit.

[Old Lurker]

Tell Chi Lurker that in that game of Razzle Dazzle, the slim chance of a Trump miracle is being pissed away.

[Old Lurker]

Go watch any video of Tom Perez if you need to be reminded what it will be like when those guys come for our heads.

[-peter]

Jeez OL, hope you have several chilled pitchers of ManhattanS on that ledge

[Old Lurker]

I do, Peter. And I do bounce from side to side I know.

I wake every morning thankful that Trump is in the WH and the bitch is not. But he cannot do it alone and his Congress is slow walking him toward failure of the MAGA Dream. As much as I love seeing Regs pulled and pipelines approved, once the myth is gone and Trump supporters give up, it will take the Perez style Red Russians no time at all to make up for lost time killing the White Russians.

Chi Lurker knows what I'm talking about.

[narciso]

Yes we know Perez the red lectroid, quite well he is Ted Jason from the drury tales.

[henry]

OL...

Ans: "All too well."

[JimNorCal]

New thread

[Old Lurker]

Bye bye old thread.

[Davod]

Regarding the FBI and the dodgy dossier:

"Another American intel source who lives in St. Petersburg, Russia, told The Daily Caller that the dossier lacks credibility because it alternately uses British English and American English...

Both “programme” and “program,” and “organise” and “organize” are used in the document.

Similarly, “the tone of the language is not the way someone from the U.K. would write. The bottom line is I don’t believe these documents were written by a British person,” he said.

Wilber said he believes the dossier was “written by an American, not a Brit. Brits simply talk and write differently.”

https://pjmedia.com/trending/2017/04/19/report-fbi-used-dodgy-dossier-to-justify-fisa-warrant-on-carter-page/

[Davod]

PS:

"Wilber said he believes the dossier was “written by an American, not a Brit. Brits simply talk and write differently.”

Of course, the dossier could have been prepared by a confused deep cover Russian operative who has worked in both the UK and USA.