The Robots Will Take Your Job! Unless They Don't...

Ronald Bailey of Reason is fascinating on the substitution of capital for labor, this time by way of robots. My fave factoid:

Where Did the Jobs Go? Look Around!

In a 2011 television interview, President Barack Obama worried that "a lot of businesses have learned to become much more efficient with a lot fewer workers." To illustrate his point, Obama noted, "You see it when you go to a bank and you use an ATM, you don't go to a bank teller." But the number of bank tellers working in the U.S. has not gone down. Since 1990, their ranks have increased from around 400,000 to 500,000, even as the number of ATMs rose from 100,000 to 425,000. In his 2016 study, Bessen explains that the ATMs "allowed banks to operate branch offices at lower cost; this prompted them to open many more branches, offsetting the erstwhile loss in teller jobs." Similarly, the deployment of computerized document search and analysis technologies hasn't prevented the number of paralegals from rising from around 85,000 in 1990 to 280,000 today. Bar code scanning is now ubiquitous in retail stores and groceries, yet the number of cashiers has increased to 3.2 million today, up from just over 2 million in 1990, outpacing U.S. population growth over the same period.

Yeah, yeah, its always fun to hear common sense from our genius former President. I can quit anytime, but one more glimpse in the (distant) rear-view mirror:

This Time Is Always Different

In 1589, Queen Elizabeth I refused to grant a patent to William Lee for his invention of the stocking frame knitting machine, which sped up the production of wool hosiery. "Thou aimest high, Master Lee," she declared. "Consider thou what the invention could do to my poor subjects. It would assuredly bring to them ruin by depriving them of employment, thus making them beggars." In the early 19th century, English textile workers calling themselves Luddites famously sought to protect their livelihoods by smashing industrial weaving machines.

The economist John Maynard Keynes warned in 1930 that the "means of economising the use of labour [is] outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour," resulting in the "new disease" of "technological unemployment." In 1961, Time warned: "Today's new industries have comparatively few jobs for the unskilled or semiskilled, just the class of workers whose jobs are being eliminated by automation." A 1989 study by the International Metalworkers Federation forecasted that within 30 years, as little as 2 percent of the world's current labor force "will be needed to produce all the goods necessary for total demand." That prediction has just two years left to come true.

Yeah, well, this time feels different, not to say that I have a great feel for the vibe of 1589.

Comments

[henry]

Yay robots!

[anonamom]

Link to last page

http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2017/06/the-robots-will-take-your-job-unless-they-dont/comments/page/99/#comments

[Porchlight]

"Why not use spoons?"

--Milton Friedman

http://humanevents.com/2012/07/31/milton-friedman-and-the-economy-of-spoons/

[henry]

we need a last page robot

[Thomas Collins]

We are all potentially replaceable by computer code, except for TM, whose thread starters could never be matched by anything IBM or Apple or Google could develop!

[-peter]

Humans will have to learn new skills that robots can't perform

[Captain Hate]

So we're recycling 16th century arguments?

[BlueOx]

(Orphaned comment from the end of the last thread.)

First Comey offers:

Look, I've seen the tweet about tapes. Lordy, I hope there are tapes.

Then he later says:

I woke up in the middle of the night on Monday night because it didn't dawn on me originally, that there might be corroboration for our conversation. There might a tape. My judgment was, I need to get that out into the public square. I asked a friend of mine to share the content of the memo with a reporter.

How do these two statements make any sense taken together? If your version of the conversation is accurate, you would welcome taped verification (which he first claims).

But then he wakes in the middle of the night with concern that a tape might exist and decides he better act quick to "get out" his version before the actual conversation is released?

Which is it sir?

[henry]

Comey violated his FBI employment agreement.

[Bunky]

Where does weakness get one? Ask Theresa May.

Where does weakness get one? Ask HW Bush

Where does weakness get one? Ask W when he didn't stand up for Libby.

Where does weakness get one? Fire the Special Counsel or find out.

[henry]

On robots, the impact has yet to be seen. The link refers to an article on Musk's robot moves on the factory floor at Tesla... he bought a German industrial robot maker and plans to increase line speed to have a single plant have capacity equal to the entirety of Ford's global assembly operations. A fascinating vision for sure, I don't know how he plans to get parts through Freemont CA traffic to supply the robots, but it is a massive change in thinking about automation that Bailey may not be accounting for. Naturally the same applies to information processing (yes Bangalore and Hyderabad are doomed).

[Captain Hate]

Somebody on the last thread, maybe Deb, made the point about the web of lies that Comey constructed finally grew so complex that he couldn't address one without stepping on another. I've thought all along that the tall ratfucker's hubris in thinking he could keep this up would be his downfall. He should feel some sense of relief mentally when this is over no matter how completely his massive ego is cut down to size.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

Someone explain to me how machinating leaks and testimony in order to force a special counsel (who he met with privately before his testimony) doesn't negate the entire point of having an independent special counsel and compromise Mueller, whether wittingly or unwittingly.

And why doesn't this fall into the category of conspiracy to overthrow the government, coup, or whatever other evil plot they were attempting?

It's right there in plain sight. Comey said it and his actions are self-evident.

Lock him up.

[jimmyk]

The WaPo dissing the NYT? This is what happens when their narrative dies:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/erik-wemple/wp/2017/06/08/in-the-main-it-was-not-true-comey-denounces-new-york-times-story/

[Stephanie despicable me]

"I hear James Comey likes his nothing burger with a side of Covfefe."

~ Conchita Vecchio via Jeffrey Varasano

[-peter]

That's called hot blue on blue action, jimmyk

[Threadkiller]

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

Despite so many false statements and lies, total and complete vindication...and WOW, Comey is a leaker!

Patterico @Patterico

You lie as easily as you breathe.

[Captain Hate]

Has Patterico started banning people yet?

[jimmyk]

Heh, peter, I was thinking Iran-Iraq war. In any case, maybe time for popcorn.

[BeenThereDoneThat]

More nails in the coffin for the Comey burial:

http://lawnewz.com/high-profile/comey-was-before-congress-to-indict-trump-instead-he-might-have-indicted-himself/

[henry]

It seems Mueller is going full swamp. Hired another shark this morning.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

henry,

What exactly is Mueller charged with investigating?

[DebinNC]

According to the blurb, "Russia probe", MM.

Here's a pdf of the FBI Employment Agreement that Catherine Herridge (sp) mentioned.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2017/06/09/from-russia-with-stupidity-n2338795

[henry]

Miss M, what Mueller was charged with investigating and what he is up to are both veiled in secrecy.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 13s13 seconds ago

Congratulations to Jeb Hensarling & Republicans on successful House vote to repeal major parts of the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial law. GROWTH!

19 replies 2 retweets 2 likes

[RattlerGator]

Fantastic piece by Kurt Schlichter.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

I am going to get some work done before the next news feeding frenzy, which no doubt will be conjured up out of whole cloth shortly.

Back later.

[Threadkiller]

I agree, RG.

The groin shot to Sassehole was a plus.

[Janet the expert 🚬]

Comey & Reality sittin' in a tree,
L-E-A-K-I-N-G
First comes hatred,
Then comes leaks,
Then comes prison for the criminal freaks.

[lyle]

Brava, Janet!

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Did everyone think the corrupt grifters were just going to roll over without a fight?

Did everyone think a people who could embarrass themselves by talking about lightworkers and being the people they have been waiting for to finally make us proud of our country by fundamentally transforming it and staring down a rising ocean would react rationally to the dismantling of their Romper Room utopia?

Does everyone think that after Trump has deftly and not particularly difficultly outmaneuvered the chumps in his own party, the Dem party and the media that he's now going to succumb to a complete and amateurish fabrication about bogeyman Vlad by Eddie Haskel Comey and Lumpy Shumerford?

Come on! We finally have a guy who is kicking testes left and right and shows no sign of caving and is doing great work. They can and are slowing him down but his obstinance can pull enough of the GOPe over the line to do far more than we thought possible even a year ago.
Nattering nabobs of negativism are a PITA no matter their political stripes.

And the totality of Muellers career does not lend itself to the Eeyorism either. Until he proves himself a Lawrence Walsh I'll take him at face value. Even in the slimiest swamps there live honorable and valuable creatures.

We won't get nearly what we want but my money is on us getting more than we had a right to expect and more than we deserve if we throw up our hands after 3 or 4 months of the fat DC pig squealing because it's being stuck.

[DebinNC]

Yesterday was an excellent day for Trump imo. And the House Rs, emboldened by the cover of darkness provided by ComeyGate, ended Dodd-Frank yesterday.

[henry]

The house ended Dodd-Frank... safely giving the GOPe something to point at in 2018 for keeping Ryan around.

Meanwhile the Senate hasn't ended ACA yet, and likely won't get around to Dodd-Frank before the 2018 vote, if ever. More Kibuki.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

http://reason.com/blog/2017/06/09/coal-as-clean-as-natural-gas

[Captain Hate]

McTurtle needs for his clowncar to do some real work.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

omenech Retweeted
Gabriel Malor‏ @gabrielmalor 9m9 minutes ago
Replying to @gabrielmalor

To recap, it appears a staffer in GOP Rep. Mike Coffman's office added Trump's name to the Wikipedia page for Obstruction of Justice.

#DraintheSwamp

[DebinNC]

The Senate Intel Commt Rs dealt with Comey well, except for "ex officio" member McCain, who removed all doubt about his unfitness for office.

[Old Lurker]

Henry, to repeat my warning from early this morning "The house ended Dodd-Frank... safely giving the GOPe something to point at in 2018 for keeping Ryan around."

I assume repealing major parts of the law requires the Senate to do the same, and then for Trump to sign it. We can count on Trump, but cannot count on a GOPe Senate.

So, so far, all we have on Dodd-Frank is the same repeal we got for the ACA seven times.

Wake me up when it is done-done.

[Old Lurker]

"McTurtle needs for his clowncar to do some real work."

I think in his mind, McTurtle IS doing real work by trashing the MAGA agenda at every opportunity. He and Ryan have their tag teaming down just right.

[Jane]

I think we should get robots to run the country. As long as they are not programmed with special interests.

TC, Rocco, Dave, I'm coming up north from the 20-25 (June)- which probably is not enough time for me to meet-up. But I'm coming up early November (assuming I can find some sleeves) for my Law School reuinion and will be there for about 2 weeks. I'd love to see you guys then.

[Momto2]

Not robots - but apps. What if all the apps went down? Real world apps?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73dqVlGWcOA

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/06/09/secretary-rex-tillerson-delivers-update-on-qatar-130pm-livestream/#more-134076

FYI, other things are going on besides the Comey flap, despite what the media is covering.

Interesting take on this from Sundance. Tillerson's statement is on video embedded in thread.

[Short pants]

"Stonewalling"

Perfect for this witness.

[Short pants]

"Look at him. Sitting there like a rockhead"