Gays, Bayes, and AI

Matt Drudge links to this Guardian article about our fascinating future:

New AI can guess whether you're gay or straight from a photograph

An algorithm deduced the sexuality of people on a dating site with up to 91% accuracy, raising tricky ethical questions

Well, my HI (Human Intelligence, der) can smell clickbait a mile away, but here I go anyway:

Artificial intelligence can accurately guess whether people are gay or straight based on photos of their faces, according to new research suggesting that machines can have significantly better “gaydar” than humans.

The study from Stanford University – which found that a computer algorithm could correctly distinguish between gay and straight men 81% of the time, and 74% for women – has raised questions about the biological origins of sexual orientation, the ethics of facial-detection technology and the potential for this kind of software to violate people’s privacy or be abused for anti-LGBT purposes.

Please at least read the Guardian summary, which notes some important scientific points and includes helpful caveats. But I want to perseverate about what I am sure is an exaggerated privacy issue, so back to the Guardian:

With billions of facial images of people stored on social media sites and in government databases, the researchers suggested that public data could be used to detect people’s sexual orientation without their consent.

It’s easy to imagine spouses using the technology on partners they suspect are closeted, or teenagers using the algorithm on themselves or their peers. More frighteningly, governments that continue to prosecute LGBT people could hypothetically use the technology to out and target populations. That means building this kind of software and publicizing it is itself controversial given concerns that it could encourage harmful applications.

Don't panic! First, this study was based on self-outed photos available on dating sites and the authors discovered that some indicators overlap with grooming and style choices (e.g., baseball caps and beards for straight men, high necklines for lesbians), not just biologically determined facial features. Consequently, one risks moving beyond the experimental boundaries in trying to apply this AI technique to closeted gays.

But I promised some Bayes and I know what you're thinking. No I don't, that's Mark Zuckerberg's area. But I know what I was thinking: If gays are roughly 5% of the population I can achieve 95% accuracy in a sample of 1000 photos by deeming them all to be straight. Big time-saver too.

Of course, that trick leaves me 100% accurate on straights and 0% accurate on gays so if my job description includes singling gays out for harassment I may be at risk of a quick out-placement. On the other hand, one wonders just what the "91%" accuracy" cited by the Guardian means.

Well, it turns out that the researchers used a study where straights and gays were roughly 50/50. The human counterparts were given this task even more clearly. From the study:

Well, then. It is a lot easier to find needles in a haystack if the stack is half needles. But surely the authors don't think they can carry this 91% accuracy in a 50/50 population into the real world, do they?

They do not, so I'll stop calling them Shirley.

The page runs over but the last bit is that by targeting the top 100 the AI finds 47 actual gays and 53 straights, which still leaves 23 gays (32%) undetected. Not to mention 53 straights to deal with.

 

What does this mean? Well, if the goal was to round up and torment a few gay people to terrorize the rest, this AI would be useful at pulling 9 gays and 1 straight out of the crowd. If the goal was to round up a lot of gays the AI would provide a starting point for further investigation, I guess - by picking the top 100, maybe sleuths could sort out most of the 47 actual gays in that sub-group with further investigation. So this is something, maybe, but this program is not picking out gays from the general population with 91% accuracy. Not do the authors make that claim, obviously, but yes, this could be one more tool in a government (or marketer's) toolbox.

 

That said, the odds of Amazon, Facebook and Google detecting gays, closeted or not, has to be way higher than this AI protocol; they have shopping history, social networks, preferred reading, viewing and music, and search history to examine. Presumably an oppressive government of the type progressives crave, with full access to everyone's medical history, would also have little trouble sorting people. In that sense, the future is already here. Big Brother is just keeping quiet about it.

Comments

[Extraneus]

MSNBC Panel Frets 'Racist Agenda' of 'Very Dangerous' Sessions to 'Hold Minorities Down'

On Wednesday's Andrea Mitchell Reports on MSNBC, a panel that included host Mitchell, Washington Post columnist Jonathan Capehart, and New York Times reporter Yamiche Alcindor spent several minutes fretting over Trump administration immigration policy with Alcindor suggesting that it would "enact racist laws." And Capehart worried that Attorney General Jeff Sessions is "very dangerous" and will try to "hold minorities down."

[Extraneus]

University receives $138,000 in federal grant money to study preschoolers’ gender identity

The National Science Foundation has awarded more than $130,000 in grant money to a university that plans to study gender identity development in young children between the ages of 4 and 6.

NSF, an independent federal agency tasked with promoting the progress of science, gave the $138,000 grant to the University of Washington over the summer for the two-year project, which will more closely examine how “internal sense of gender” and environmental factors influence gender identity.

“Prominent theories of gender development have discussed the degree to which gender identity results from an internal sense of gender and socialization processes,” the grant reads. “However, tests of these theories have been limited because, for most children, internal gender identity and environmental socialization substantially overlap, rendering it impossible to distinguish the relative impact of each factor on gender development.”

[Extraneus]

GOP outraged after Trump refuses to consider Lois Lerner prosecution

Republicans asked the agency in April to take a "fresh look" at the case against Lerner. On Friday, Assistant Attorney General Stephen Boyd responded by saying President Trump reviewed the case and decided against it.

"[T]he Department determined that reopening the criminal investigation would not be appropriate based on the available evidence," he wrote in a letter to Kevin Brady, the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.

Brady called that a "terrible decision" that suggested political appointees are not held to the law.

"I have the utmost respect for Attorney General Sessions, but I'm troubled by his Department's lack of action to fully respond to our request and deliver accountability," the Texas lawmaker said in a statement.

Ok, I'll stop spamming the thread now. :-)

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-is-more-serious-than-you-think-about-building-the-border-wall/article/2633832

[Threadkiller]

What I can't find, Ext, is a link to Boyd's letter.

Where is the quote that implicates Trump?

Ultimately, from what the article does feature, it appears as though Issa, Chafed-putz, and Gowdy Doody did a terrible job of evidence gathering.

[Ralph L]

The flamingos remind me of Saki's story, The Stalled Ox. Very funny Edwardian writer, if you haven't partaken.

[maryrose]

Extraneous:
I find no consequences for Liar Lois Lerner disturbing.

[sbw]

sbw, I don't think your feedback is working

I know it isn’t.

[sbw]

I think Lois Learner is outside the focus of the cone for now.

Let’s see after the midterms. And I am predicting a Trump gain on both sides of the aisle. Changes in political alignment are happening.

But what do I know?

[Ralph L]

Most dishwashers have an air vent to dry your dishes. I don't know if there's a one-way valve on them, or if it's strong enough to withstand immersion.

[Janeprobably about 10 minutes after getting there]

I'd rather prosecute Lerner than build the wall, and I'm for the wall.

[DebinGA]

The Republican House Ways and Means Cmmt Chair from TX didn't win his R primary decisively last time. I can easily imagine Trump targeting Republican obstructionists by finding strong primary challengers who'll run on supporting his agenda.

[Ralph L]

I'd rather prosecute the people who cleaned up after Lerner.

[JimNorCal]

"I'd rather prosecute ..."
Let's embrace the word "and" in this case, shall we? :)

[Ralph L]

From Ace: Three Taco Bell Employees Open Fire on Two Would-Be Robbers, Killing One.
TV station talked to a lawyer about justifiable homicide. Did they expect them to be charged?

[JimNorCal]

I'm assuming this photo is from a New Hampshire cemetery?

[Threadkiller]

Tom McClintock:

September 8, 2017 Vote Notes on Legislation
Vote Note on H.R. 601

H.R. 601 – Three-month Debt Limit Suspension, $230 billion of general spending and $8 billion for Emergency Hurricane Relief.

I supported the clean disaster relief bill for Hurricane Harvey. But I cannot and will not support the cynical use of disasters as an excuse to pack relief bills with extraneous and questionable policies that ought to be considered on their own. This bill left the House with my support to provide $7.9 billion of emergency funding for Hurricane Harvey. Period. It returns from the Senate with a three-month suspension of the debt limit, an additional $230 billion of general government spending unrelated to hurricane relief and $7.4 billion of added spending for Community Development Block Grants (that have notoriously little accountability).

[narciso.]

The office of legal counsel, has to do with policy, but not prosecutorial decision that would be the criminal division, but he has been a lib time sessions confidant.

[James D.]

I think Lois Learner is outside the focus of the cone for now.

She shouldn't be.

She used her office and her governmental power to attack and silence political opponents. She defied supboenas. She destroyed evidence. She lied to Congress.

Prosecuting someone who openly, proudly does that is pretty basic to restoring the rule of law.

If Jeff Sessions doesn't think so, he needs to go. Today.

[narciso.]

A previous overview here:

Http://.nationalreview.com/corner/448279/president-trump-meet-department-justice-doj-president-trump

[Extraneus]

UC Berkeley Offers Counseling Services to Those Upset By Shapiro Speech

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Lerner was the text book case of the Swamp attacking those who wish to drain it.
Seem like a no brainer.

[Extraneus]

"We are deeply concerned about the impact some speakers may have on individuals’ sense of safety and belonging," the letter read. "No one should be made to feel threatened or harassed simply because of who they are or for what they believe. For that reason, [support services] are being offered and encouraged."

[Extraneus]

New thread.

[henry]

New thread.

[Clarice Feldman]

Here's the link to Narciso's post:http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/448279/president-trump-meet-department-justice-doj-president-trump

[pagar, a bacon, ham and sausage supporter]

I suspect " "creating a mass social movement to end family breakdown," is 100% opposed by a political group that 100% supports the murder of 60 million plus inconvenient children.

Thanks for the link. Extraneus | September 08, 2017 at 02:39 PM

[Clarice Feldman]

Happy Birthday, Miss Marple!

[Dave (in MA)]

There was a thread about being able to tell from a photo whether someone is gay, and nobody posted any of the classic Obama pics?

[Clarice Feldman]

New thread/

[middyfeek]

@Henry - Re Obama it is my observation that gay men are often married to unattractive women. Draw your own conclusion.

@TM - don't know where you got the five percent figure but my guess is it's wildly understated.

@Jack is back - I'm old enough to remember when Mickey Mantle was sometimes referred to as the third best centerfielder in NY.