Hurricane Watch

This National Hurricane Center page is updated every three hours as it tracks Irma and projects the five day cone. 

As of 5PM on Thursday, this is terrifying.

Sunday seems to be Judgment Day.

Comments

[daddy on iPad]

1st

[maryrose]

Good for you daddy!

[maryrose]

I keep praying for a hard right out to sea.

[Jim Eagle]

But you must understand the cone. It does not mean you are in the path.

For example, as I pointed out to MM, its now south of Indianapolis and should start to evacuate:)

Please, all, don't panic but follow the centerline trajectory and wind speed cones first.

[henry]

If the cone reaches Chicago, I'll lock & load and guard our southern border to keep the riff raff out.

[Threadkiller]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

[Catsmeat]

Well, my folks are going to stay in place (in St. Pete) unless there's mandatory evacuation (if there is they'll go to my sister's in Tampa). At my sister's, their cat would have to stay in the laundry room, so stay in place it is!

All my prayers for everyone in the path and also those with property in the region--

[henry]

My family is staying in Naples. We will know Sunday.

[Jim Eagle]

No model has ever been more accurate than NHC/NOAA.

Bastardi is correct. Its a monster but it is also going to move east not west as it corrects it's steering after Hispaniola.

[narciso.]

So it will stay off the east coast?

[clara]

Well, we stayed here for Matthew and had a lot of downed limbs but no flooding--we are at the highest point on the coast. Mandatory evacuation starts for our area on Sat. Two of our daughter in Atlanta are calling and telling us to come there. The only trouble is--the cone NOW covers Atlanta!

[narciso.]

How can the cone get wider if its overland inside a atate?p

[Clarice Feldman]

Maybe you won't have to bake anyone a cake if you don't want to:https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/in-major-supreme-court-case-justice-dept-sides-with-baker-who-refused-to-make-wedding-cake-for-gay-couple/2017/09/07/fb84f116-93f0-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html?utm_term=.ae479e1dec36

[Clarice Feldman]

RG, I posted at the end of the last thread an article quoting weay as saying there's no evidence Trump tried to impede the Russia investigation. That should end any suggestion Mueller will claim Trump's firing of Comey was an obstruction of justice.

In other news, looks like 9th Circuit is about to get smacked down multiple times:https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/06/most-liberal-appeals-court-headed-supreme-court-reversals/602051001/

[Jim Eagle]

narc,

Its a model. Every day they move the 2 day and 5 day cone based on the centerline trajectory. It doesn't mean Atlanta or Louisville or Indianapolis (BTW, Detroit could be in it next:) will have Hurricane effects.

Follow the centerline trajectory.

[Clarice Feldman]

De Vos outlines bad Title IX impacts:https://reason.com/blog/2017/09/07/devos-title-ix-example-cases-rape

[narciso.]

Thats more of an east coast hit, with winds coming from the northeast quadrant.

[henry]

Equifax link to see if you are in the 143 million. I am. Now life in prison isn't enough. I want dibs for their firing squad.

[Janeprobably about 10 minutes after getting there]

Narc, are you still in Florida? I think it's time to panic.

[jimmyk on iPhone]

I assumed the cone was a confidence region. It gets wider because the models are less sure of the path the farther into the future. Of course the storm also weakens once it gets over land.

[narciso.]

Yes. Say I go to the only qualified shelter in the area, for pets.

[Clarice Feldman]

That equifax link is a bitch--apparently it takes a week to find out and the answeres are contradictory.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

Jack,

You made me laugh about the cone almost reaching Indianapolis

Frankly, we have had a dry August so if we get the remnants here, it wouldn't be a bad thing.
(Fortunately, this house doesn't have a basement.)

Nowhere to evacuate here, since all my relatives in the area live south of me!

[Jim Eagle]

The TWC is saying Irma is developing a second eye to eventually replace the original eye. Two things can happen, one good (decreased wind speed) or two, increased speed and coverage. They think it intensifies.

Jose BTW is going to beat up beat up Baruda, what's left of it and Antigua, again. Then it moves east out to see.

You guys and gals on the Florida west coast need to know that even if it is not landfall there you will get the outer band NE impact.

[DrJ]

I'm on it too, henry. Oh bother!

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

Personally, I will donate to Samaritan's Purse or the Salvation Army.

https://www.oneamericaappeal.org/

[Captain Hate]

Welp somehow I'm not on the list

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

Sundance lived in the aftermath of Andrew, and he is very concerned about societal breakdown. If you are in the path of this storm, please read this and follow his advice:

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/09/07/hunkering-down/#more-138334

This may be why Rick Scott called up the Florida national Guard, closed all state schools and offices, and is trying to get people to get out of Dodge.

[Clarice Feldman]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/07/russian-meeting-notes-not-damaging-to-trump-family-242464

We are watching the requiem for "Russia".

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/2017/live-updates/weather/hurricane-irma-a-monster-storms-devastating-path/barbudas-beach-was-like-a-caribbean-version-of-dunkirk-one-rescuer-said/?tid=sm_tw

[Jim Eagle]

jimmyk,

Actually its always the same geometry. it's like the perfect balloon. 240 miles wide at the largest width. It's a tolerance metric. That's all.

Meteoroligists:)

[Ralph L]

Say I go to the only qualified shelter in the area, for pets.
Don't go for pets, go for safety. Unless they have some spelling bees.

[Jim Eagle]

MM @ 9:14 that was 25 years ago with Andrew.

Building codes have been updated. Better construction especially roofs. But tiles will go, older non-compliant homes also. Trailer parks will be no more (why people move to Florida to live in trailers is a mystery to me).

The condos, high rises, and big new buildings survive.

I worry about bridges, causeways and roads with lots of water beside them or under them. Also lots of road side ditches and canals that people up north would call rivers. They will tell the story.

[Another Bob]

Henry, DrJ, did the Equifax site clearly say "you are affected", or did it simply go straight the ID Prime (or whatever) offer?

[glasater]

Years ago we went on what is called a bareboat cruise with two other couples from our area. 57' single mast, think its called a sloop, and we cruised BVI and US islands for a week. Quite an experience and I loved it! So sad to think of the devastation there now. Went past Nekker Island.

The coolest place was a spot called the Bitter End on Virgin Gorda. Bitter end refers to the last bit of rope thrown to a man washed overboard. Think that's why there generally is a knot on the rope end on boats.

[DrJ]

MM,

it simply [went] straight the ID Prime (or whatever) offer.

[Another Bob]

Oh, for me Equifax said directly "we don't believe you're affected". Wife's went straight to the I'd prime or premium thing, but never said yes or nay.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

Well, I guess he had to support it. Personally, I would do nothing with money involving Bill Clinton or Barack Obama.

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 5m5 minutes ago

We will confront ANY challenge, no matter how strong the winds or high the water. I’m proud to stand with Presidents for #OneAmericaAppeal.

[Beasts of England]

Prayers and best wishes for our many Florida JOMers. The models, to date, have been quite accurate for this storm; and given its massive diameter, there's simply no chance of a miss. A glance, perhaps, but that would be best case.

[Ralph L]

My HP laptop updated Windows 10 yesterday, and now the cursor arrow often bounces lower when I tap the finger pad. Has anyone else had this problem?

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

http://breaking911.com/breaking-shooting-reported-miami-international-airport-terminal-evacuated/

[Jim Eagle]

off to dreamland

Slaap lekker, tot morgen

I will keep lurking before succumbing to sleep, so keep it interesting:)

[narciso.]

So the Spanish constutional court told the Catalans, nit to fast on their referendum.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/071451.shtml

Scroll down to "Hazards Affecting Land." Lists expected storm surges, in some cases 5-10 feet.

[Bubarooni]

MM,rest easy. If Irma makes it to Bloomington, she will not pass. I got this!

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

Bubarooni - HA!

Heading to bed.

Nytol!

[anonamom]

TWC calling for huge storm surge on west coast, all the way to Ft. Myers. Bigger towards the south.

[Ralph L]

Is it wrong for me to hope it wipes out Raul Castro's house and all the Fidel monuments?

[jimmyk]

it simply [went] straight the ID Prime (or whatever) offer.

Same here.

[Barbara]

I'm praying that Irma moves off into the Atlantic and well away from all of you and your family and friends. I have friends in North Carolina who may be affected by the storm. By the time the storm reaches that area, they expect it will be a Category 1.

I know virtually nothing about hurricanes, but I'll go with the hope that the storm's strength will diminish as it moves north. Stay safe everyone. Our thoughts and prayers are with you.

[narciso.]

It staggers the mind what were seeing. Seemingly everywhere up and down the coasts.

[Clarice Feldman]

Stay safe, narciso, honey.

Nytol.

[narciso.]

Thanks all and the same for all of you and all of your relatives and friends.

[GUS]

KC is kicking NE's collective ass.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Kicked.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

If they ever need to test a neutron bomb there's a nice, remote playa in the Black Rock Desert of northern Nevada they could try it on about this time of year without fear of harming anything useful.

[Dave (in MA)]

The Pats' secondary stunk like an H1B armpit tonight.

[GUS]

Dave, it was quite bizarre. Of course New England's defense was injured and topsy turvy, but I could smell the stench of CHELSEA HUBBLE-RENO'S cooter during the 4th quarter.

Swear to Gawd.

[Gentlejim]

Spectacular visuals brought about by Dave and GUS. Hahaha

Henry has the WI border. I'll try to secure IN. The idiots left Monday. We don't want them back.

[GUS]

Gentlejim, so good to see you. Trust me, Henry has my "flank" covered. His Henry Ranch is a veritable "For Henry", he has a fantastic homestead and a unbelievable piece of Wisconsin land. Our Southern border, THE CHEESE CURTAIN, is VIOLATED every Friday afternoon, by our FIB neighbors. These Illinois interlopers own A LOT of WISCONSIN lake property and real estate, AND, they spend their CA$HI$H, here in 'SCONSIN most weekends, until the leaves fall. I salute them!!

[Gentlejim]

I also salute them, GUS, on their way out of town.

I also have family in Ft Myers who are currently planning on hunkering down. Praying for their safety as well as our FL JOMers and their families/loved ones.

If MM has to come north, I have space for her. :)
Counting on bubarooni to keep any potential mess south.

[Gentlejim]

The action here has been crazy this summer. I've been behind for two months.

[Gentlejim]

What's the record for continuous posts?

[GUS]

Yes Gentlejim, after their last FILL UP and their last LUNCH, I salute them leaving.
My Boy has his Driver's license. His High School, Marquette University High School, is 25 miles from DOOR to DOOR. 25 miles of I-94. From the GUS' Ranch to MUHS, is exactly 25 miles. He has a nice Jeep Wrangler, passed from DADDY to SON, in great shape and convertible. It's running the GAUNTLET. Veritable Milwaukee Rush hour traffic, and a 16 year old SON, is quite daunting. Illinois drivers are CLEARLY and OBVIOUSLY, more aggressive, than the SIMPLE WISCONSIN FOLK.
Henry knows my SON well, and my son loves Henry. I haven't quite given "the boy" complete full reign to drive To AND Fro, but he drives for now, and I sit in HIS passenger seat....trying NOT to be too much of a backseat driver. But VERY SOON, my SON will be FULLY VETTED, and he helps pay for HIS insurance.

[GUS]

Gentlejim, whatever the record for continuous posts...........NARCISO is the Champion.

[Gentlejim]

GUS,
My youngest has started driving. I am not fond of the passenger seat at all even under the best circumstances.
Narciso is hall of fame. I just hope his induction speech isn't in written form.
:)

[Stephanie Nene Not your normal Grandma]

I must be the only idjut who drove South today towards the coast. Sitting looking out over the ocean from the 7th floor in Gulfport and you would never know there was anything lurking over the horizon.

Didn't notice if any Floridians are taking shelter here or not, but the traffic was incredibly light heading this way today and the po-po were nowhere to be seen as I gradually crept up to 95 mph for long stretches of road. Did see several caravans of upscale buses heading north which appeared to be college bands?? maybe heading to football games this weekend. LSU? Tulane? Some other gulf area school?

Hit 2 $800 jackpots tonight and another $600 in slow but increasing accumulations on a really loose slot. I played the $600 back in playing the $8.80 max bet chasing the top jackpot of $10K, but what the hell, it was the house's money. Besides, I get another $300 in free play money at 4 am to start the weekend :)

Everyone stay safe and holler loud if the storm decides to take a severe left jaunt and nail the MS coast. Will be interesting being chased by the storm on the way home on Sunday if we don't get chased out early by it being a devious little shit and tracking this way at the last minute.

Definitely liking this MAGA slot weekend.

Smooches!

[Gentlejim]

Have fun, Steph. $800 is a great number, no slips. Woot!!

[Stephanie Nene Not your normal Grandma]

$880 twice!! Absolutely no slips! Double Woot!

I'll take small chunks all night long. That $10K woulda been nice as it would have substantially speeded up the kitchen remodel timing, but a few more No Slip mini jacks and I'm good to go, too.

To bed and perchance to dream of cheating the tax man several more times manana.

[daddy on iPad]

Cool Stephanie. Hope the wad is big enough to choke a horse!

We're about to head home from Oakland on a check ride. Spent the day introducing a new coworker to the Used Bookstores on Telegraph in Berkeley. Pretty day, overcast but cool and fun. Able to show him all the new landmarks here the black clad Antofagasta thugs burned down that structure in front of the Student Union Building while the cops hid inside. An interesting place to visit but I wouldn't want to live there anymore, having been spoiled by Alaska.

[GUS]

Gentlejim, there is no SUBSTITUTE for SHEAR DADDY TERROR and good INSURANCE.
My son is a JUNIOR in H.S. an EAGLE SCOUT, and a ROOKIE DRIVER.

The best time of my life.

Stephanie, YOU KNOW that I LOVE YOU... be safe!!!

[Gentlejim]

Right you are, GUS.

Where does rich get off missing a night shift? Who's in charge of this night crew?

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

Good morning!

FYS, you reminded me of the vacations we took to Wisconsin when I was a kid. We always went to a place called Whipporwill Lodge near Townsend, in the Nicolet National Forest. We went there every year from the time I was 5 years old until I graduated from high school.

My dad bought a cabin (one large room with multiple beds, no electricity, bottled gas stove and an ICE BOX) when I was 10. It had 40 acres on a dirt road backing onto a trout stream. It had belonged to a guy from Chicago who used it as a hunting cabin but he got caught shooting deer out of season and was forced to sell it by terms of his court judgement, so my dad got it for $1400. (This was in 1958.)

Lovely place and people.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

The above was directed to GUS.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

At 5:35 Eastern Irma has weakened slightly to just under a category 5, but they are warning it could strengthen very quickly again and to not be lured into thinking the storm is going to be no big deal.

Gas shortages in south Florida. Keys are closing at 11:00 AM and the drawbridge will be closed.

[rse]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic/irma-2017 we have gone down to a 4 but this shows restrengthening today to a 5.

The slight westward track has continued and atlanta is directly in the redline, not the cone area. Think I will go to publix while red does pt this morning.

[rse]

And the westward drift still has miami, ft lauderdale, and west palm in the dirty part of the circulation.

[James D.]

Went to bed and the score was 17-14 for the Pats. Gotta say I'm pretty surprised at the final result.

[cboldt]

Current Irma-cone

[Clarice Feldman]

Now three hurricanes in the area. My goodness.

[Clarice Feldman]

Might be the right time to laugh:http://www.geekfill.com/2017/04/29/words-of-wisdom-from-children-these-are-brilliant/

[henry]

ZH says Miami under mandatory evacuation orders... 650,000 people dumped on 95 all at once.

[cboldt]

LOL at wisdom from kids. A future negotiator in there, "If you want a kitten, start out by asking for a horse." Okay, well, what if you want a horse?

[cboldt]

Going to be messy, and not just the storm. A substantial number of criminals being displaced when clearing Miami and certain points nearby. There will be a surplus of looters - at least to start.

[Clarice Feldman]

cboldt--Ask for a tiger?

[cboldt]

Or a herd of bison ...

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 10h10 hours ago

I encourage EVERYONE in the path of #HurricaneIrma to heed the advice and orders of local & state officials!

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 40s40 seconds ago

Said yesterday this would back down to a 4 BUT COME BACK.BELIEVE LOWEST PRESSURE YET TO COME.Unlike Rita,Katrina, will intensify to coast

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

I got to thinking that while we waited on news reports on TV when I was younger (dan Rather got his unfortunate career started by hurricane reporting) we now are able to look at aerial photos and radar on our computers, as well as almost instantaneous bulletins from the NHC and NOAA.

There are lots of distractions from so much information and the 24-hour news coverage on politics and such, but instant weather coverage is really a blessing.

[rse]

Unless you get it from the Weather Channel. Our experience was that they were more interested in hyping the supposed danger to get viewers rather than give accurate information.

The worst was dennis when there was a high in gulf that meant storm could not come due north and had to turn to the NW. They never told viewers that and had them thinking it was coming due north.

That was also the storm when I discovered looters were coming in after mandatory evacuation to scope out the houses they wanted to break into. They took off running when they realized people were still in the boarded up houses .

[Marlene]

Good Morning! The Bangor paper posted a story last night about a wedding party stranded on St. Maarten. The group of 14 people from the Bangor area has been in contact with the outside world,but the airport is destroyed and they might be stranded for weeks. One of the guys in the group has repaired a generator and a gas stove at the resort where they are staying. That will be a wedding to remember!

[Clarice Feldman]

Captain Hate, you'd be a perfect movie reviewer--sign up:http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2017/09/how_to_dry_up_hollywood_funding_for_democrats.html

[hrtshpdbox]

What a lovely, lovely drubbing the Pats took last night, hahahahaha.

I was as the Key Biscayne beach with wife and kids the day before Andrew hit, I remember sitting in the dead calm water and staring out to sea, thinking how impossible it seemed that anything could be coming at all. Next day, Key Biscayne disappeared briefly, the whole island underwater. Though where I lived only experienced 110-mph winds, with some downed trees and cars uplifted and put back down a few feet from where they were parked, we had no power for the entire next week - Florida with no air conditioning in the summer is not anyone's idea of a good time. The darkened supermarkets were giving away their meat, so we grilled up some pretty good steaks for a week until they fixed the power.

Who funded Fusion when is going to be an interesting discovery process. Probably Marco in the beginning (I think Jeb would've been too clueless or too Boy Scout to do it, since he didn't even bother using his cousin Billy's Access Hollywood tape when it might have helped him), then Hillary and then Comey - talk about election interference!

[Clarice Feldman]

From Stassel yesterday (wSJ)The question is when the FBI got in on the act. The Washington Post in February reported that Mr. Steele “was familiar” to the FBI, since he’d worked for the bureau before. The newspaper said Mr. Steele had reached out to a “friend” at the FBI about his Trump work as far back as July 2016. The Post even reported that Mr. Steele “reached an agreement with the FBI a few weeks before the election for the bureau to pay him to continue his work.”
Who was Mr. Steele’s friend at the FBI? Did the bureau influence the direction of the Trump dossier? Did it give Mr. Steele material support from the start? The timing matters because it could answer the vital question of why the FBI wanted the dossier. Here’s one thought: warrants.
The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, which oversees spying activities, is usually generous in approving warrants, on the presumption law-enforcement agencies are acting in good faith. When a warrant is rejected, though, law enforcement isn’t pleased.
Perhaps the FBI wanted to conduct surveillance on someone connected to a presidential campaign (Carter Page?) but couldn’t hit what was—and ought to be—a supremely high bar for getting such a potentially explosive warrant. A dossier of nefarious allegations might well prove handy in finally convincing the FISA court to sign off. The FBI might have had a real motive to support Mr. Steele’s effort. It might have even justified the unjustifiable: working with a partisan oppo-research firm and a former spook to engineer a Kremlin-planted dossier that has roiled Mr. Trump’s entire presidency.
Now that’s power.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

ALERT!!!

Just heard an ad on Fox approved by Donald Trump inviting Congress to help Make America Great Again. I have NEVER heard an ad which sort of pokes ones' own party!

Holy cow!

I am going to search and see if I can find it so you guys can watch it.

[RattlerGator]

Not to diminish what the National Hurricane Center does, but for the consuming audience (that's us) I think they largely take the work generated by the U.S. Navy and then try to present it in ways more applicable or presentable to a mass audience. I posted this tweet this morning of the Navy's work-product:

Interesting plot of #HurricaneIrma from the #NavalResearchLaboratory this morning -- #Florida pic.twitter.com/UeuejwQzTb

— J.B. White (@RattlerGator) September 8, 2017

Click the "pic.twitter.com/UeuejwQzTb" link above for the image. Or (and I tried to post on three separate occasions the specific link to the specific page but none of them actually posted) go to this site for the Naval Research Laboratory website. Buried within it is the raw info on Hurricane Irma:

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/

Very similar to the Hurricane Center image, right? Our military is phenomenal in so many varied ways.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

I am pretty sure I left the bold on so hope this fixes it.

[Thomas Collins]

I believe, hrtshpdbox, that three Pats SB winning years involved losing the first game. One involved a 0-2 start, and another involved a 2-2 start with a game 4 crushing by the Chiefs. So enjoy!

[Jim Eagle]

Box,

Our friends in Key Biscayne are up here now. Frederick's best friend and whole family in their Southampton home. Their dad just built a huge home on Masha Drive which will probably be flooded since he is right on the Bay. Not the venue to ride out a 'Cane of this magnitude.

[henry]

RG, even Milwaukee is in that bubble!