Looming Disasters

Let's have the traditional "Any chance Irma could make landfall in North Korea?" open thread.

Comments

[Marlene]

We just got an email from our community's management company. Hurricane shutters should be placed NOW! They are clearing the pool and patio area of all furniture and the clubhouse will be closed by tomorrow. Yikes!

[maryrose]

TM:
I am going to say it will bypass Florida and head out to sea.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

maryrose,

I am praying for that very option. I have too many friends in Florida and don't want to see them go through a disaster.

[Threadkiller]

What wind speed optimizes the lift necessary to fling rooftop solar panels across the state?

[maryrose]

Apple has 250 illegal aliens working for them.
How many are DACA and when do their visas expire?
Can Tim Cook intervene for them?
If visas expire by March2018 they have to reapply by October of this year.
Who will make sure they are in compliance at the company?
Is that the job of the HR person?

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

If the hurricane doesn't hit North Korea, I hope it puts a scare into the DC area before swinging out to sea.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

maryrose,

Easy-peasy. Tim Cook can move them all to Cher's house, where they will be protected, according to Cher.

[maryrose]

My brother is in Ocala,Florida near Orlando.
Any danger there?

[Old Lurker]

MM "If the hurricane doesn't hit North Korea, I hope it puts a scare into the DC area..."

So you're still mad at me, huh?

:-)

[maryrose]

MM:
We have some D.C. JOMers and Virginia people.
I don't want them in the path of the storm.

[daddy]

Here's some cool news. I am waiting in the Alaska Airlines First Class Lounge for a deadhead flight to start my next trip---Honolulu.

The cool part is that the TV in the Lounge is tuned to OAN (One America News) That tells me that even here they are sick of FOX News. They quit broadcasting CNN in the Lounge ages ago, but nice to see them dumping FOX. Unfortunately their wine selection remains terrible, but oh well, at least it ain't coach:(

[Stephanie Nene Not your normal Grandma]

Tornadoes, MR. The hurricane will throw off tornadoes up the center of the state pretty much whichever track it takes. IIRC they are worse on the NE side of the hurricane.

Looks like I can get to Biloxi and back on Sunday just as the bad stuff starts nailing the Keys and Miami. Nothing like driving north with a hurricane at your back!

[henry]

Um, Tim buddy. You know that hiring illegal immigrants is illegal? And the fines are huge. Thanks for the finders fee dumbass!

[jimmyk on iPhone]

I would think D.C. Is far enough inland not to have major damage, but I'm usually wrong in these things.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

No. I said a SCARE. I don't want it to hit DC, but I would derive great pleasure from seeing the evil press corps running around like chickens with their heads cut off.

[clara]

Oh come on, MM, let's let it hit DC!!!!

[Jim Eagle]

Irma's trajectory has already changed in the last 24 hours. The cone for day 4-5 is steering it WbyNW as it loses wind speed in the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. You in South Florida both on the Gulf and Atlantic need to keep checking the cone envelope and the trajectory everyday.

It could very easily bounce off Cuba and head straight up to Key Largo and inland at the Everglades which affects the whole Southern tip including Miami and Naples. Yesterday's cone had the centerline trajectory to Miami but now in 24 hours it has changed toward Key Largo.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/205803.shtml?cone#contents

[jimmyk on iPhone]

D.C. has already had hurricane Donald since January. Category 5. Still gaining strength, one hopes.

[Jim Eagle]

In case you don't navigate all the links at NHC, here is the trajectory I was discussing above. SW Florida and Key Largo are the current bullseye.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/205803.shtml?gm_track#contents

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/09/05/nafta-round-two-joint-closing-statements-345pm-edt-livestream/#comments

[daddy]

On the Myanmar Muslim thing. I recall from Dalrymple's excellent "The Last Mughal," that after quelling the horrible 1857 revolt in India, that the Brit's dethroned the last Mughal Emperor from Delhi, killed all but one of his youngest kids, and exiled him to Burma (I think Rangoon) until his death.

I also recall that they took big efforts to limit the size or significance of his burial site in Burma, to prevent its use as a future rallying site for Muslim's wishing to reestablish Muslim rule in India.

I don't know if this exile of the Myanmar Muslims has anything to do with that, what with Bangladesh being a division from India only since 1948. Narciso I suspect would know what I should read to educate myself on the motivations of the Myanmar Muslims and the origins of the current conflict, but just thought I'd toss that in about the last Mughal Emperor's exile and burial in Burma by the Brits.

[daddy]

Oh come on, MM, let's let it hit DC!!!!

You bet, Clara! I'm pulling for it to pound the snout out of DC, then recoup and hammer Manhattan before leveling Hyannis Port.

Go Irma!

[Jim Eagle]

One other observation; if it keeps to that current trajectory, it won't lose any wind speed hitting the keys. Not enough of counter-mass there. And if it gets into the gulf with the eye west of Naples, then it is Katy-bar-the-door for the panhandle or even, God Forbid, N'olens. I have no idea how much heat Harvey sucked out of the gulf but current sea temps are still in the 80's F.

Be prepared. Get a Midlands weather radio and stay tuned. Batten down the hatches and make sure you have plenty of Vodka and Spam.

[daddy]

OAN ran a segment that Mueller was talking to the Senate Intel Committee and was peeved that they refused to give him a copy of the transcript of Paul Manaforte's testimony in some closed Intel Committee hearing.

Good. I am happy with whatever pisses Mueller off.

[narciso.]

a little context here:

http://.atimes.com/ind-pak/CJ10Df01.html

[Dave (in MA)]

http://www.therepublic.com/2017/09/05/us-hillary-clinton-pastor-plagiarism-2/

The United Methodist Publishing House, owners of Abingdon Press, said the book “Strong for a Moment Like This: The Daily Devotions of Hillary Rodham Clinton” would be withdrawn and destroyed.

Rev. Bill Shillady, rhymes with "shady" (Howie Carr)

[daddy]

Please try again Narciso. That one no workee.

[Dave (in MA)]

http://www.atimes.com/ind-pak/CJ10Df01.html

[Janet the expert 🚬]

I wonder why the Dems didn't give amnesty to everyone that was here back in 2009.
They had the House, the Senate (with 60 Dems), & the Presidency.
They could have done ANYTHING. ANYTHING.

They coulda given amnesty, done all the transgender agenda & even redefined marriage.
They coulda taxed the crap outta the greedy 1% too.
Why didn't they do that?
Instead, they passed the unread fiasco Obamacare.

[narciso.]

Sorry that period gets in the way:

http://satp.org/satporgtp/publication/faultlines/volume14/Article1.htm

[Threadkiller]

https://www.mccain.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?ID=E1DFA7A9-1FCA-4F7D-8CDC-F84E00599E47

Build the damn wall...

[daddy]

Here's the OAN story on Mueller:

Special Counsel Mueller Clashes With Senate Intel Committee

Big headline, little meat, but a ton of comments.

[daddy]

And with that I am heading down to the boarding gate for my first MaiTai in seat 1 C.

Aloha:)

[Clarice Feldman]

Ha!

If you could use any laugh--go to Iowahawk's take down on twitter of Eichenwald. It's a classic.

[maryrose]

Daddy:
You lead a charmed life!

[Clarice Feldman]

*any MORE laughs*

[Clarice Feldman]

Aloha, daddy. Hubby is visiting the kids there now and will be flying back tomorrow early a.m. or I'd try to put you two together.

[daddy on iPad]

I'm with u on Iowahawk, Clarice.

C1= [M(ai) + T(y)]

[Clarice Feldman]

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/house-committee-subpoenas-fbi-justice-over-trump-dossier/article/2633466

[Jim Eagle]

Does anyone know if Porchlight owns a horse?

http://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/librarians-horseback-new-deal-book-delivery-wpa?utm_source=Atlas+Obscura+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=46d31b0f0e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_09_05&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f36db9c480-46d31b0f0e-66184937&ct=t(Newsletter_9_5_2017)&mc_cid=46d31b0f0e&mc_eid=d27e03f7b2

[narciso.]

I admit I was only vaguely aware of the Arakan insurgency, mostly because they were scapegoating a woke Buddhist priest u ringho (sic) but as you see from the last link its the model of the PLO or kashmiri fighters with a great deal of impit from the kingdom and/or Pakistan from the 70s on.

[Clarice Feldman]

VDH on the resistance:http://www.nationalreview.com/article/451072/two-resistances-anti-trump-identity-politics-activists-battle-non-elites

[maryrose]

Clarice:
Finally some action from Gowdy and company to get to the bottom of the FBI and Justice role in the dossier.
Unmasking will also be brought up if they were a result of this report.

[rse]

I am reposting from the end of the other thread in case the info helps anyone get a perspective of what speeds buildings are rarely built for or above.

steph-when i chaired a committe on the board elections I ended up driving down in a tropical storm with the waves hitting from lake in eufaula and then found the eye as I cut at a diagonal through the farmland just south of the fla line.

Mother nature is awesomely powerful. I did love how my old 470 road out anything. It has become the teenager car for younf drivers in BH as the parents know they will be safe and those v-8's have been known to make it to 400K.

henry-Walton County in the PH where I had a place for 15 years that we built had supposedly some of the strongest hurricane protection codes in the state because they were adopted post opal in 1995. It decimated the PH, but before the construction kicked off in earnest.

We had to have windows rated to 125 I believe which is why OL and I have discussed the same windows and doors. There also had to be cables running from the roof into concrete and other measures. Then around 2010 to get wind coverage you had to either have hard shutters attached to house or put in this ballistic missile type canvas that fit over the windows, frequently inside the house. We went with the latter.

My point is with all those measures, apart from a storm surge, no code could get beyond about 130 MPH for houses. Hope that helps. I had a neighbor with houses in both places and he said the naples code was similar.

[narciso.]

What is this good will hunting:

https://mobile.twitter.com/stillgray/status/905154170461708288

[Dave (in MA)]

Mikey Adams‏Verified account @MikeyAdams420 More I stole a sign once. It said, "Welcome To Intercourse, PA" #RedSox

[Clarice Feldman]

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2017/09/daca_was_a_bad_dream.html

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Buddhist violence is not exactly unknown.
The Buddhists on Sri Lanka are particularly known for their rampages.
The current Burma shave is occurring largely because the nutcake buddhist prior dictator was compelling people to become Buddhists which of course was not exactly met with much sanguinity by the local rock worshippers.
And let's just say the Nipponese Buddhist conclave didn't exactly cover itself in glory during that little dust up in the early to mid forties last century.
"Banzai!"was rather more frequently on their lips than "Ohmmmmm".

As with violent Christians, they are for the most part, violating the tenets of their faith, but that's not the same as saying it doesn't happen.

[Frau Karl der Hammer]

daddy sez "You bet, Clara! I'm pulling for it to pound the *snout* out of DC, then recoup and hammer Manhattan before leveling Hyannis Port."

I hope that was SNOT, daddy. I'm with you all the way.

[narciso.]

Those were shinto nationalist on the large part, yes surprisingly socialist solidarity under glorious leader ne win, want all that inclusive shocker. The slorc some nomenclature better attributed to guardian of the galaxy.

[henry]

Thanks rse. My mom's and brother's places are rated 140+ with debris. Mom is on the beach, but enough floors up that debris isn't an issue. My brother is a mile inland with two year old construction. His inlaws, add on storm shutters. They likely will evac. Mom and my brother will be fine from what I see (electric grid pending).

[Jim Eagle]

True, Iggy, true.

Most are Shinto but a considerable amount are Buddahist. Lots of Catholics, believe it or not. In fact, their influence on the Asian culture is such that Japan is Christmas central.

Its those damn Jesuits.

[Jim Eagle]

Henry,

Biggest damages since the Andrew codes is roof shingles. That is why investing in blue tarp is a wise decision every summer.

[henry]

JiB, thanks. Mom's building has a maintenance staff, my sister in law is a quality control expert (aka paranoid) so I'm confident they have a tarp. :)

[narciso.]

So the euro model has it going up the west east, the gfs the east coast, how much kimvhee are we in?

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump 27s27 seconds ago

Congress now has 6 months to legalize DACA (something the Obama Administration was unable to do). If they can't, I will revisit this issue!

[henry]

narciso , are you and your mom safe?

[narciso.]

I'm a little uncertain to be frank, last year was a close call we don't want to repeat, and now we have another member of the family to deal with.

[henry]

Make some contingency plans while you can. I see near panic hitting Miami already. Just picked up a niece at the airport, she flew in from Naples via BWI. The next leg for that plane was Jacksonville. People on the flight though it might be cancelled past Milwaukee. Neighbor's panicking makes your safety tougher.

[Jim Eagle]

Geebuz, its 5 days out.

In the immortal words of Pvt. Jones, the local butcher in Dad's Army, "Don't Panic, Don't Panic".

Follow the cone updates. The last 2 days will tell all.

[narciso.]

Miami is undstandable, so they are flying back to Jacksonville?

[henry]

Airline plane routing is a mystery. No direct flights Milwaukee to Ft Myers except in season.

Jack, the local media push panic because no one pays attention otherwise. Here the first half inch snow is a blizzard coming, by February a foot or two is some snow ahead. People who watch GMA are panicking.

[Jim Eagle]

Henry,

Been through14 years of this in our Florida home and only Ophelia and Matthew shut our golf course down. We are on the beach protected by dunes and never had a direct hit or landfall. That is why SoFl, the panhandle, other Gulf Coast venues and the Carolinas should be more concerned.

This one is motoring and will not stall like Harvey. In fact, Houston could be in the equation if its barometric is attractive enough.

[boatbuilder]

I raised this rhetorical question when Obama issued the DACA exec order--if a president can simply issue an EO ordering an agency not to enforce the existing law passed by Congress, what is to prevent a conservative president from enacting tax cuts by EO? Simply order the IRS to stop collecting taxes above 15% from corporations, for example.
Also why all the fuss about how hard it would be for Congress to put together a law? If as our betters tell us DACA is sacrosanct they can simply put Obama's DACA order up for a vote. What is hard about it is that the voters would quite rightly let them know how they feel about it. It 's called the democratic process.

[narciso.]

Well that's reassuring, to a degree:

So this is their korolev:
http://mirror.co.uk/news/politics/revealed-middle-aged-rocket-scientist-11116099?service=responsive

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

TK will appreciate this.
You can't get a puller on the Pitman arm on a Ford without unbolting the steering box.
They couldn't leave a quarter inch dimple in the crossmember to leave room for the puller bolt.

On top of that my pal with the Cat with the broken track has decided he wants to try building a hydraulic press to push the pin out.
It's gonna have to be 75 tons to move it if that would even work. He's smart but no way.
I could burn it out in 5 or 10 minutes, but it's up to him.

[narciso.]

75tons, that sounds like those Saturn Boyer crawler.

[Clarice Feldman]

Yes, JiB. At the moment we've no real idea about Irma's hit on the uS.

[James D.]

So according to ESPN, Goodell screwed the Giants over. While the league reportedly upheld Ezekiel Elliott's suspension, and he'll still miss six games, he'll be allowed to play in the opener. So the Giants get to face him, and the Redskins (Dallas' game 7 opponent) get to avoid him.

And of course the Giants might be without Odell Beckham thanks to a cheap shot by a Cleveland defense back in the preseason, for which there was no punishment at all.

Blah.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

Lots of hurricane speculation on Twitter, none of which makes sense to me.

Therefore, I am heading to bed.

Nytol!

[narciso.]

Hear the lamentations:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/09/05/andrea_mitchell_sessions_use_of_illegal_aliens_is_offensive_not_correct.html

[jimmyk on iPhone]

Epic quarterfinal match at the US Open, 5-5 in 3rd set. Kvitova v Venus.

[jimmyk on iPhone]

Now 6-6, tie break!

[Dave (in MA)]

http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-red-sox-cheating-scandal-photo-2017-9

Smooth.

[Threadkiller]

🎶Press 75 tons and what do you get?

No more days older and a hole in your head.🎶

[narciso.]

How has this not made it through more than a year:

https://medium.com/homefront-rising/dumbstruck-how-crowdstrike-conned-america-on-the-hack-of-the-dnc-ecfa522ff44f

[Threadkiller]

I have another style puller. It is pressed steel in a cone shape. I will look for a picture.

[Texas Liberty Gal]

Great tennis match!! Venus's remarks afterwards were really great. Love that there are so many USA gals still in contention.

[Threadkiller]

Would that fit?

[Threadkiller]

Ugh. I see what yo mean, Ig. Looking at a picture it does appear as though you need to loosen/ remove bolts to pivot the box. I hope it can be done without removing the steering shaft. If you do need to remove it make sure the steering wheel is locked. If it isn't the airbag clockspring in the steering column will start to unwind and destroy itself.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

I used to have one of those TK. Can't find it. Unfortunately it wouldn't make any difference. The centerline of the sector shaft intersects the frame crossmember so whatever you put up there is going to hit unless the steering box is moved.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

TK,
After I noted my predicament I found a youtube of a guy doing the same year truck as mine and all he had to do was loosen the steering box.

[Threadkiller]

I did see a couple of adventurous types claiming that they cut/split the arm to relieve tension and "it fell right off!"

Since you are replacing the seal heat from a die grinding disc shouldn't hurt anything. Pounding the split with a chisel over and over may do some damage to the bearing sleeve if it doesn't pop off quickly.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--No more days older and a hole in your head.--

No kidding. I watched videos of guys using a couple of presses and they were hanging right over it like they were pumping up a bicycle tire.
One guy kept his hand right on the little stub pin he put behind the pin he was using to push with to get it the last inch or two.
Hamburger helper recipe.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

I saw one guy who made two cuts and dropped a chunk right out of it, but I wasn't planning on replacing my Pitman arm.
Plus he was doing a 2WD which has a much smaller crossmember and better access.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Laslo Spatula had an extremely lewd but extremely funny comment toward the end of that Althouse thread.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

Looks like TK and I both killed a thread.
Night.

[Threadkiller]

Car talk did it in...

[narciso.]

Is it possible tie have missed the mark so thoroughly:
www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/sep/4/donald-trump-russia-investigations-return-with-con

[jimmyk]

This is even stranger:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/sep/5/trey-gowdy-fbi-not-cooperating-trump-dossier/

Isn't this the Trump DoJ? And the FBI headed by Trump appointee Wray? How is it that they are not cooperating with the investigation of the phony dossier?

[narciso.]

Yes there is strangeness everywhere:

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170905/parisians-feeling-safe-despite-terror-threat

[GUS]

Juanita Williams is having a fit on the 5.
Drooling, pointing, spitting, farting.

It's quite a scene man!!

[GUS]

Car Talk Yay!!
My years old Jeep Wrangler (actually it's Jr's now) jump started a fancy Lexus SUV this evening. I declined payment for my services.
Btw, it's in the 40's here right now. Brrrrrrrrrrrr.

[Dave (in MA)]

18th inning. If anybody's stealing signs, it's not helping.

[narciso.]

Maybe its the signs of the team in the next stadium over.

[GUS]

For any NIGHT SHIFTERS still awake.

JJ WATT, is from Milwaukee. Pewaukee to be exact. He and 2 of his younger brothers are WISCONSIN GRADS, and all in the NFL.

Watt has raised $20 MILLLLLLLLLLIION for HARVEY RELIEF. How much have our FULL COMMIE friends raised????

[GUS]

Dave, I'm sure Bill Belichek will be blamed for SOMETHING here.
I'm neither a Red Sox, nor a Yankee's fan, but I do LOVE both FRANCHISES as a YYYYYYYOOOOOGE and life long BASEBALL junkie.
I met a Boston dude having a beer in the Denver airport yesterday. Ted Williams, to Yaz, the Conigliaro Bros, Luis Tiant, Fisk, Schilling, Pedro, all the way up to the RECENT GREAT TEAMS, kept me occupied for 2 19shilling (no pun intended) beers. Oh! We were watching the replay of the Packers/Rams game from Friday!!
Btw, I do have a VERY CLOSE friend, who played for the PATRIOTS. He lives in the same neighborhood that JJ WATT grew up in.

[GUS]

Because I am the NIGHT SHIFT COMMANDER, and because the NIGHT SHIFT seems to be ME and ONLY ME tonight, I took a naughty peeeeeek, at POOOOOTERICO'S Red State Lite blog. POOOOOTER BOY, is a clown, and not a lovable Ronald McDonald type clown. POOOOOOOTER BOY has decided that EVEN WHEN TRUMP is RIGHT, he is still EVIL and VILE and DIRTY DIRTY. Lil Miss POOOOOOOOOTER, makes the case and STRAW MAN argument, that TRUMP IS BAD....REALLY BAD.....and those who VOTED FOR or SUPPORT MR TRUMP use "But Rodham is bad", as their rationale for voting for Mr Trump.
NO SHIT POOOOOOOOOTER von RICO. Rodham is a sick sick, evil, dishonest political liar and WHORE. Trump is NOT.
POOOOOOOOTER BOY??? How would RODHAM have been a better choice than Donald Trump????

POOOOOOOOOTERICO makes me laugh. Can I cross post this at RED STATE???? Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. POOOOOOOOOOTER thought RED $TATE WA$ HI$ CA$H COW!!!!

Poooooooooter Boy. Hahahahahahaaaaaha.

[-peter]

slow night, but vintage GUS.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/09/06/uncle-russias-vladimir-putin-calls-for-talks-with-north-korea/

This is interesting analysis. We will see if this progresses the way Sundance anticipates.