Resistance Economics

The flailing NY Times has a new feature - Fake News in the lead which is promptly rebutted in the main text and accompanying graphics. Here we go:

Stocks Plunge as Market Enters ‘Correction’ Territory

After watching stocks march higher for nearly nine years, investors are suddenly confronting a new reality: The long, smooth ride is over. And it doesn’t feel good.

Major stock indexes suffered a steep drop in late trading on Thursday, the second-straight day that stocks dived shortly before the markets closed. The 3.75 percent decline pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index down more than 10 percent from its peak in late January. That means the market is technically in correction territory — a term used to indicate that a downward trend is more severe than simply a few days of bearish trading.

“We’ve been trained that the market does nothing but go up,” Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank, said of investors. “And then suddenly, they’re anxious, they’re sitting nervously on the sidelines, and then they can’t take it anymore.”

Wait, what? Other than a quiet - too quiet - 2017 the "smooth ride" just hasn't been that smooth. Six paragraphs later the agitated authors sidle up to reality:

The market correction does not mean that the bull market in stocks — which have been roaring since March 2009 — is over. Markets also experienced a correction in early 2016 before shaking off their jitters and continuing to climb.

Wow, early 2016. Who can even remember?

And their accompanying chart shows four earlier "corrections" during this bull run, as well as two near-corrections of 9.8% and 9.9%. And perhaps to best highlight how backward-looking and meaningless this whole "correction"/"bear market" paradigm is, around the same time as the two near-corrections in 2011 and 2012 we had a near-bear market drop of 19.4%. Another 0.6% lower and all the talk about a bull run extending back to 2009 would be dated.

Of course, after the fact if the market drops 20% and then keeps dropping it is easy to say we have experienced a bear market. But if it dips 19.4% and then rebounds that is an utter nothing? Well yes, actually, just as if it dips 20.6% and then rebounds it is an exciting yet meaningless nothing. Sells papers though.

Comments

[Sue]

Who buys these papers?

[Buford Gooch]

It's getting hammered so far today, too.

[maryrose]

People who work on Wall Street.

[Extraneus]

The quest for wealth can lead to many places.

Woman claims husband stole her kidney to cover dowry

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

Mark Knoller
‏Verified account @markknoller
4m4 minutes ago

Pres Trump to nominate Admiral Harry B. Harris, Commander of US Pacific Command, to be US Ambassador to Australia. Pres spent time with Adm Harris on his visit to the USS Arizona Memorial in Pearl Harbor in November.

[Tom R]

From the previous thread concerning Rob Porter:

so how did he remain on hatch and previously lee's staff

My guess is that a Congressional staffer only requires a SECRET clearance and they are significantly by orders of magnitude easier to acquire than a TOP SECRET clearance. Getting a TOP SECRET clearance requires investigators to personally interview people who know the person who needs the clearance. SECRET clearances do not require personal interviews. Something like what Portman is accused of would not be caught when processing a SECRET clearance request.

[Man Tran]

Perfect timing to post an unsubstantiated bit of info from a friend:

The manager of a fund specializing in dividend/interest yield observed on CNBC today that central banks (especially Japan & Swiss) have been for some years amassing stock holdings, with an enormous increase in past two months, and now amounting to over 30% of such assets.This was confirmed separately by Rick Santelli in his daily bond markets report on CNBC ... noting that the total of such holdings had risen to nearly 17-trillion!

This heavy buying by central banks is assumed to have weighed heavily in attributing to recent run-ups in the value of stock market indexes world wide. And coupled with the just passed US budget increase of $1-trillion over the next two years is seen as a cause to "force" the central banks to "change their course" or, in other words, cause the "correction" of the past 10 days.

This also serves to confirm the heavy hand that central banks have had in attempts to force market outcomes ...

[Old Lurker]

Hey Man Tran. So how does the Quiet Car decouple from the Acela at 125mph? Wife wants to know before she boards at 3pm.

[mockmook]

NEW THREAD!!!

(an homage to GUS)

[Old Lurker]

If those central bankers really wanted to move the markets, were those stock buys denominated in Bitcoins?

[simply stupid]

Surprised that Captain Hate has not brought up the Restraining Order in this Porter kerfuffle because that is going to be next target.

[DebinNC]

Quite a challenge to write ads for a mode of transportation described as a death trap with 4 recent examples as proof.

[jimmyk on iPhone]

“We’ve been trained that the market does nothing but go up"

Who is this 'we'? No one over the age of 10, presumably.

[Dave (in MA)]

So how does the Quiet Car decouple from the Acela at 125mph?

Whereupon it becomes the Really Quiet Car. (after all the yelling subsides)

[jimmyk on iPhone]

That central bankers are buying stock ought to be a major concern, if only because central bankers don't attend to market forces. If anything they try to counteract them, thereby confusing the signal. It would be like the government buying up massive amounts of housing in 2008, bolstering the price and sending the wrong signal to home builders.

The Fed doesn't buy stocks or housing, but it did something almost as bad, which was to buy mortgage-backed securities, in the $trillions.

[exdemocrat]

"Is it merely that she was "powerful" that made them victims?"

no, but Fugly was surely an aggravating factor.

[Jim Eagle]

I wouldn't call this a bear market, yet! Corporate earnings are up, unemployment at 45 year low, wage growth. It's technical trading and I think sooner than later you will get some level-headed human intervention.

OL, I doubt crypto-currency was used to any extent. Fear of inflation and an unfounded fear at 2.9%?? But the Fed trying of off-load of QE1 & 2 at $4 trillion could have a lot to do with it.

[Old Lurker]

Just a joke about the Bitcoins, Jack. They are headed to zero faster than good stocks.

[Man Tran]

OL,

I'm guessing that the drop pin broke or somehow walked up and out. (I've never been under an Acela.)

[Jim Eagle]

OL,

Talk about over-valued. Bitcoins.

It takes on average about $2K to run the algorithm to mine the coin. Yet it is trading at 4 times that and just last month was trading at 8 times extraction.

But then BC is only one of many crypto currencies. Wait until the SEC steps in to regulate them. That is when TSHTF.

[anonamom]

RUSH is readingRattle Gator's essay!!!!

[Old Lurker]

WOW...Rush is talking about RG's OODA Loop piece.

Rock star!

[henry]

Per GUS! Rush talking about RG's article right now on air.

[Old Lurker]

Damn you are fast A-mom.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

Hugh Hewitt has an interesting set of comments on the resignation of that last FBI guy.

https://twitter.com/hughhewitt/status/961688270265634817

[daddy]

Rush in Hour 2 commenting on an American Greatness column titled "The OODA Loop President." Is that RG's post or was RG's some other column?

[Mickey Fickey]

Is rush talking about RG's article?

[Another Bob]

Just think, we knew RG back when...

[anonamom]

I even have avocado on my fingers and did that!

Plus I tweeted RG.

Heck, we can do a better job than whoever prepped Rush---

[Old Lurker]

You snooze you lose, daddy.

[Threadkiller]

That was RG's column.

👍👍👍

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

RG!!

You have hit the big time!!! Fantastic!!

[mockmook]

"The Fed doesn't buy stocks"

I thought they did do some of that either in the "Financial Crisis" or Odumbo's reign.

[Old Lurker]

SILL talking about and reading from RG!

[maryrose]

RG:
You really wrote a wonderful article and I am happy it has been used to educate even more people by Rush and Insty.
Is there an echo in here?

[Old Lurker]

Too bad Rush did not know the fighter pilot dogfight origin of OODA.

[Buford Gooch]

RG, you have hit the big time, bigly.

[Old Lurker]

Imagine if Rush knew that RG is a Black Conservative. He'd spend another segment on it.

[daddy]

Wow! It is RG. Rush is loving RG's piece!

"Great shooting RG! Don't get cocky:)

[Jane]

That is so much fun for RG. I missed it. Does anyone have a link to the essay?

We used to talk about the ooda loop a lot. Anyone remember who the prior expert here was?

[Old Lurker]

RG and Clarice are going to form a union and demand we pay to read their posts.

[Old Lurker]

Still going on, Jane!

[Threadkiller]

RG's essay for anyone who missed it:

https://amgreatness.com/2018/02/08/ooda-loop-president/

[Old Lurker]

That was DoT, right Jane?

[daddy]

OL,

I've been way behind due to work but I'm able to pick Rush up live over the internet here in England. How cool is that?

[Old Lurker]

That was an entire segment by Rush on RG's.

We got us a star.

When RG is proven wrong and begs me to lower the rope ladder so he can climb up to the Ledge, we will have fun with him.

[maryrose]

TK:
You never answered my question on the other thread.

[Dave (in MA)]

Apparently Limbaugh has been talking about an article by our own RG, and Hugh Hewitt had an interesting series of tweets about the resignation of that FBI guy Laufman.
</bloghog>

[glasater]

We can boast we knew RG when.. ;-)

[Extraneus]

I think Charlie Martin wrote something about McCain being an OODA genius, right before the fool suspended his campaign in order to save the world from the "crisis."

[Threadkiller]

Sorry about that, maryrose.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

Here's one of those sealed indictments unsealed:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/12/08/former-state-senator-brian-joyce-indicted-federal-charges/B5XIyhM6DDQlJt5V78VoXO/story.html?event=event25

[Extraneus]

Here it is:

McCain and the OODA Loop

[Dave (in MA)]

RIP to one of my all time favorite radio talk show hosts.
https://twitter.com/HowieCarrShow/status/961932391349538817

[daddy]

Rat's.

It was Hour 3, not hour 2 of Rush that featured RG, which means I missed Hour 1.

:(

[Dave (in MA)]

MM, my (ex-)Senator.

[Old Lurker]

MM, I read your entire 2:59 and it did not mention parking tickets.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/02/black-us-olympic-athlete-plays-race-card-skips-opening-ceremonies-not-chosen-carry-us-flag/

[anonamom]

I've never listened to Rush til this week.
What a blast!

That remark about McCain made me think of how strong Romney was looking, til he wasn't, just like McCain.

Rush may be right---these GOPe types are afraid of winning.

[Rocco]

RG needs a Committee to Elect...Well Done.

[Texas Liberty Gal]

Repubs release video explaining the Republican FISA memo
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/house-republicans-release-video-fisa-memo/

[DebinNC]

Rush's show - Don't know if RG's piece is in Rush's "stack 'o stuff" or if today's clips might be posted tomorrow. Anyhoo, huge kudos, RG.

[Texas Liberty Gal]

Congrats RG! Such a deserved honor for Rush to read and talk about your article! Congrats!!!

[Jane]

Great article RG.

I'm not sure it was DOT, OL (but it may have been. Maybe Charlie Martin. I found the whole thing fascinating back then, and moreso now.

[Miss Marple the Deplorable]

anonamom,

I have never figured out if they are afraid of winning or simply accept that they are cast as the Washington Generals.

I didn't think McCain would win. I happened to see him up close when he was campaigning in Indy for George Bush. Very uncharismatic and lackluster (although I am sure it was done as a grudging effort to not look like sour grapes).

Romney seemed to collapse with that Candy Crowley comment and never recovered. Trump would never have put up with that, which is why he won.

[Old Lurker]

Looks like it was Chaco, Jane.

See Ext's link at 2:59.

2008. Boy are we old.

[Porchlight]

We used to talk about the ooda loop a lot. Anyone remember who the prior expert here was?

I believe it was a commenter by the name of M. Simon. I used to see him around other Insty-linked blogs, too - possibly Roger Simon. This is his blog:

http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/

Search results for OODA:
http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/search?q=ooda

[Extraneus]

Why was that video from Kevin McCarthy and not the IC majority? Is McCarthy even a member of the committee?

[Old Lurker]

Porch, your 2006 beats Chaco's 2008.

[Dave (in MA)]

https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Ajustoneminute.typepad.com+"ooda"

[Porchlight]

Yes, OL, but searching again I haven't been able to find an actual JOM link with M. Simon's handle. But I remember him clearly. He's very pro-legalization and there were several discussions about it.

I definitely remember it coming up during the 2008 election, so it could be that I saw M. Simon talking about it on another blog, but Chaco brought it to JOM. The Insty fave bloggers were more closely linked in those days: JOM, Roger Simon, Protein Wisdom, etc.

[Dave (in MA)]

Sorry, typepad breaks that syntax.
Try:

https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Ajustoneminute.typepad.com+ooda

[Extraneus]

Dianne Feinstein slams criminal referral: 'Not a single revelation in the Steele dossier has been refuted'

In a five-page analysis released Friday, Feinstein says the criminal referral is “not based on any allegation” that Steele, the author of the infamous Trump-Russia dossier, lied to FBI investigators about former Trump aide Carter Page, or what was included in the dossier.

“[N]either provide any evidence that any of the information in Steele’s dossier is wrong. Instead, the referral is limited to a single baseless allegation: that Steele lied about his contacts with the press,” the analysis says.

Desperation.

[DebinNC]

McCarthy is #2 in leadership. My only quibble is shooting from below whichever Rep was not Nunes or Gowdy, who is thought was excellent.

[GUS]

Who is this RG the guy RUSH was quoting is WHITE.

[lurkersusie]

REPORT: President Trump Proposing ‘Biggest Civil Service Change’ In A Generation
USA Today reports:

President Trump will seek to “hire the best and fire the worst” federal government employees under the most ambitious proposal to overhaul the civil service in 40 years, officials said. […]

Trump is using the VA Accountability Act, which gave the Secretary of Veterans Affairs greater authority to fire and discipline workers, as a model. The White House says that law has resulted in the dismissal of 1,470 employees, the suspension of 443, demotions for 83 others last year.

Under the current system, federal employees get a review every one to three years. Employees whose performance is “fully successful” — as 99.7% are — get a within-grade “step” increase in addition to annual cost-of-living increases.

Trump’s plan would stretch out the amount of time it takes to go from step 1 to step 10 from 18 years to 27 years, saving $10 billion over the next decade, officials said. That money would then go to high-performing employees either as merit raises or one-time bonuses.

[DebinNC]

The Dem response described the dossier as "minimally corroborated" iirc.

[Neo]

'This movie [Black Panther] will prove to the colonialists that if they had not interfered with Africa, we'd be so far advanced'

I'm sure nobody would be talking that Africanized dialect of the Queen's English if there hadn't been any colonization, except in perhaps .. Zamunda.

[Dave (in MA)]

https://www.google.com/search?q=%22J.+B.+White%22&num=100&rlz=1C1GGRV_enUS754US754&source=lnt&tbs=qdr:h&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwibsaaQ1JnZAhVFnuAKHcjaBhgQpwUIIA&biw=969&bih=991 Looks like he collaborated with the Russians.

[Dave (in MA)]

Another busted link. Dammit

[Neo]

David Kernell, the Germantown High graduate who guessed his way into Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin’s personal email account in 2008, died last week in California. He was 30.

[Porchlight]

Wow, Neo. I'd forgotten about that.

[sbw]

MM, Erin Hamlin is from Remsen, about 10 miles northeast of us. Our editor had chosen two AP articles about the coin toss/racism to put on the page -- one news, one analysis.

I asked what is it that makes a coin-toss racist? I asked where was the news in either article?

I said an article about the stellar Olympic record of the person who lost the toss might be newsworthy, but not the two articles alleging racism.

Alleging racism is an opinion anyone could proffer and certainly was not substantiated by a coin toss.

I am happy that at least some in the newsroom questioned running the article before I came out.

[Porchlight]

'This movie [Black Panther] will prove to the colonialists that if they had not interfered with Africa, we'd be so far advanced'

Oh. Right. Because they were so advanced before the Age of Discovery.

[Old Lurker]

Neo, I lie awake at night wondering about that what-if. Before I fall asleep I wonder what-if the Egyptians had not enslaved the Jews. And what-if Genghis Khan had not reached the English Channel, Russia and the Mid East. And what-if those pesky Vikings had stayed away from England and Normandy. I am well asleep before I wonder what the North American Indians might have become without the colonists, or the southern Indians without the Spanish.

And if only my great grandfather had looked for oil and not coal. Or if my parents had only made me work harder in middle school. What if I had never met Mrs. OL, of if Betty Sue had gone to the Prom with me?

What is a man to do?

[DebinNC]

Thinking of Feinstein, Rush today: Finally, the California exodus begins

In recent years GA has been #1 in the world in feature film productions ... Beyond the tax incentives and natural beauty, I imagine CA film folks have noticed the safety, low cost of living, and kind, friendly people offer a sharp contrast to LA.

[GUS]

What if God wrestled superman.

[Beasts of England]

RattlerGator for the win!! 😎

[Old Lurker]

Oh Gus. Everybody knows God created both Superman AND Kryptonite.,

[Tom R]

Devin Nunes is investigating me. Here is the preemptive spin.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/devin-nunes-is-investigating-me-heres-the-truth/2018/02/08/cc621170-0cf4-11e8-8b0d-891602206fb7_story.html?utm_term=.4165d2c680c8

[maryrose]

Seems like Black Panther wants to rewrite an imagined history. Bringing modernization to a country takes time and the African chiefs at the time wanted to sell these persons as slaves.

[Beasts of England]

ChiTown Lurker wants to know if GUS likes gladiator movies...

[Jim Eagle]

1,001pt. swing in the DJIA just today!

They don't make roller coast rides that crazy. Goes up to 454 a minute ago and now has dropped 100pts. Now going back up.

I just put a few quid in a volatility index.

[Stephanie Nene Not your normal Grandma]

LOL Beasts!

Y'all might want to tie me to my desk for a while...

Every time I have run out to go run errands and come back the market crashed starting last Friday. Leave the house it's ho-hum... come back Holy Shit!

[lurkersusie]

Little Marco condones this

Chuck Ross
@ChuckRossDC
Make sense of this: Christopher Steele's contact to Mark Warner was the lawyer for Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov and Oleg Deripaska, the Russian oligarch who once worked with Manafort.
https://t.co/SooaCL69u8?amp=1

A lobbyist who served as a back channel between Christopher Steele and Virginia Democratic Sen. Mark Warner served as legal counsel to Russia’s foreign minister and lobbied on behalf of a Russian oligarch with ties to Paul Manafort.

Documents filed with the Department of Justice show that Adam Waldman of Endeavor Law Firm, served as counsel to Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, from 2010 until last year. He has also worked for Oleg Deripaska, a billionaire aluminum magnate with close ties to Putin, since 2009.

[daddy]

DOW closes up 333!

[Rocco]

Comey threw Priestap under the bus when questioned by Rep. Elise Stefanik. She asked him why he didn't inform congressional oversight when he began the counterintellgence investigation in July 2016. He told her the Director of Counterintelligence told him not to.

Sundance has been great!

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/12/15/a-curious-case-of-counterintelligence-bill-priestap/

[Jim Eagle]

RG may know this, but Col. Boyd flew missions in WW2, Korean War and Vietnam. For us aircrew guys he was most famous for this Energy-Manueverbility Theory. When I was at AFIT, the OODA was s lesson in our Operations Research curriculum. It is used, I think, by top litigators in law practice as well as stockbrokers.

Hedge fund people use it every day. Wouldn't surprise me that Trump himself used in his development business since it fits perfectly.

[maryrose]

Lurkersusie:
Love the new government employees rules.

[JimNorCal]

TM: "Sells papers though."
Sue: "Who buys these papers?"

People with bird cages to line?