Defying Gravity

Doc Drezner thinks political gravity is working on Trump. His approval rating, while stable, lags where it might be considering the buoyant economy.

I don't know. Evaluating Trump's strategy is impossible without describing his objectives. Simply assuming he wants conventional things like a House Republican majority after November assumes Trump thinks (reacts/intuits/behaves) like a conventional politician. And we can all agree there is little that is conventional about Trump.

So for example - suppose Trump's focus is his own re-election in 2020; bailing out the Republican establishment is not a priority. Would a Democrat-controlled House hurt or help in in 2020? Well, there is an excellent chance of endless investigations and impeachment. But does that hurt him?

One might think so. On the other hand, Trump has exploited and exacerbated the divisions of an already divided nation and will surely continue to do so. He may relish the idea of keeping the pot at a boil. In a national screaming match judgment and experience are devalued and the guy with the biggest megaphone often wins.

So if he has a strategy that extends beyond today's impulse what is it? Saving the House for Republicans? Or in 2020 running against a do-nothing Democratic Congress that focused on Fake News investigations rather than working to pass his agenda (whatever that is or whether he actually has one)? I don't know, obviously - it would not be my advice to let the House slide but then, I certainly would not have advised him to attack LeBron. We have a strange leader in stranger times.

Comments

[Momto2]

That's Trump's best asset - the inability of the opposition to figure him out! First maybe (or at least top 3?)

[Thomas Collins]

The constant attacks by Oligarch Media and the Mueller investigation are keeping Trump's approval rating down. I don't buy the notion that the attacks are really helping Trump on balance. Persuadable independents are likely to pay attention to mainstream media attacks.

I also don't think that a Dem House will help Trump. Dem House will shut down investigations into unmasking and spying on the Trump campaign, and will work in concert with Oligarch Media in a continuing attempt to delegitimize Trump.

If Dems win House, the turbulence we have experienced so far will seem like a smooth ride.

[maryrose]

Why can’t he attack LeBron:
LeBron was s hands up don’t shoot advocate.

[Momto2]

And LeBron started it... Trump does not ignore attacks but punches back.

[Miss Marple]

Momto2,

I agree with you. I just endured 10 minutes of Karl Rove on Fox telling me that we are doomed to lose the House and that the President needs to stop name-calling the press and answer each error individually.

What a loser that guy is. The ONLY reason he ever got a reputation in politics is that he hooked onto W who had a lot of charisma but not a lot of understanding about how he was perceived.

Plus, once W got nominated he was lucky enough to run up against that weirdo stiff Al Gore.

[henry]

Gravity, that's the ticket! Just hedge (well totally slant) a survey to two hundred and gee... look at that gravity!!

News flash, gravity is what keeps Rear Admiral Kristol's fat ass in a chair. It is not a political phenomenon.

[JimNorCal]

I think that in this sphere and at this time, Trump is acting on the purest of motives.

[narciso]

When did we stop taking drezner seriously.

[Extraneus]

Has any president ever campaigned as actively for midterm election candidates?

[Momto2]

And I cannot believe the Dems will win the House. Their message is being dragged further and further left daily.

Here in Georgia, our Dem candidate for governor just said that she wants to give the Hope Scholarship to illegals. That will not be popular here as it has become more competitive for our own students to qualify.

I think voters pay much closer attention to things like that rather than the drumbeat of Russia, Russia, Russia. It's almost become like elevator music that you just tune out because it's non-stop and monotonous.

[danoso]

Maybe folks living in OH IO would know better, but I have to believe throwing shade at TheBron would help. I assume he's hated there again after bolting to LaLa

[Captain Hate on the iPhone]

Rove turned what should have been landslides against two very unlikeable candidates into nail biters. He's one of the worst things to happen to the GOP, which is really saying something.

[James D.]

When did we stop taking drezner seriously.

Some of us never started.

[Rooting out Prevarication]

First, it was just about adoptions. Then it was a promise of dirt on Clinton, but it came to nothing. Then President Donald Trump didn’t draft his son’s initial statement. Then he did. Then it was “irrelevant.” And now Trump admits the meeting was “to get information on an opponent.”

If there’s one thing that’s been consistent about the White House’s explanation of the June 9, 2016 meeting at Trump Tower, it’s inconsistency..

[Miss Marple]

It's amazing to me that Trump would be blamed for exacerbating the division in this nation when, from the very beginning of his run, he was first mocked by the establishment GOP, then the press and the democrats.

He has been vilified by Hollywood, Broadway, and the news channels.

What he has done is REVEAL how little those people care about the country, or the American voters. ALL they care about is their own money and power.

What other political figure has gotten poorer while serving in the White House? Donald Trump has lost over a billion dollars in net worth.

He has sacrificed his privacy, his comfort, his once-golden reputation in order to serve this country while being vilified.

I consider him a hero. Period.

[Momto2]

Ex - Excellent point! President Trump is an energizer bunny with those rallies and he uses them to help mid-term Republican candidates. Just a Twitter endorsement led to a landslide for our Rep. gubernatorial candidate who had been behind or neck and neck depending on which (if any) poll you believe.

[Captain Hate on the iPhone]

LeBron needs to shut up and play and stop illustrating the lack of knowledge that a better than average high school provides these days.

[henry]

From our Chitown Lurker:

Drezner’s been advising Rear Adm Kristol, FTSAH

[Captain Hate on the iPhone]

Rove: The Architect of 2006

[James D.]

Putting aside all the (well-earned) abuse of Rove, and ignoring his motives, there’s still the fact that he was 100% dead wrong about pretty much everything in 2016, both during the primaries and in the general election, so why would anyone put any faith into anything he says now?

[Extraneus]

MSNBC BLEEPS RICK WILSON AFTER PROFANITY-RIDDEN, NEVER-TRUMP TIRADE

I still don't know who this dude is, but between him and Max boot I can't decide who has the more punchable face. Probably Boot but it's pretty close.

[Captain Hate on the iPhone]

I assume he's hated there again after bolting to LaLa

Not really; he gave 100% while he was here and we had to start preparing for life without him at some point so why not sooner than later.

[maryrose]

The election against Kerry wasn’t a nail biter.
There was fraud in Florida in the election against Gore in Broward, Miami Dade and Palm Beach.The media jumped the gun declaring victory for Gore before the Panhandle finished voting and affecting the results in New Mexico by 6000 or more votes because people thought Gore had won and turnout was depressed.
Rove wanted to be a player when Jeb was going for the nomination.
Most of his comments are riddled with sour grapes.
He was totally wrong on election night wrt Romney.
Not a reliable or trustworthy voice today.
How much of his Crossroads money is going to go toward helping the Repubs keep the House?

[Comanche Voter]

Well if his agenda is to stir the pot--he's succeded.

If his agenda is to drain the swamp, not so much.

If his agenda is to reveal the hypocrisy of our ruling class, well maybe a "B".

[clarice feldman]

I have a dinner bet riding on the Rs holding both houses. I hope and suspect Drezner is wrong.

[mike in houston]

My dad was a U of Texas grad, he even played b-ball there, and was a Texas Exe all his life. He would rollover in his grave if he had read this article.

Cronyism 101 at the University of Texas

https://misruleoflaw.com/2018/08/05/cronyism-101-at-the-university-of-texas/

[maryrose]

LeBron helped deliver a championship title to Cleveland and we are grateful for that.
He also provides scholarship money for needy students to attend private school.
His politics are the opposite of ours therefore he is fair game to take on in the discussion by the President or anyone else.

[maryrose]

Clarice:
I agree with you.
Dems have no message and we are 80 some days away from the midterms.

[Jane]

Thanks Beasts and Ext. (From the last thread)

[Miss Marple]

clarice,

Trump has been actively supporting people and doing these rallies, which he says he will ramp up closer to the general election. I cannot remember any other president doing that, as Extraneus pointed out.

Also, the dems have been so darn nasty and evil that Trump's supporters KNOW they have to get to the polls to defend him.

In addition, the dems are pushing very unpopular policies: impeachment, abolishing ICE, open borders, reversing the tax cuts, etc.

I am with you on this. I think we will hold both houses.

[clarice feldman]

Charlotte Rae died. I think she's a second cousin. She first came to fame on the Phil Silvers chows, written and produced by another cousin.

[Miss Marple]

And right on cue, another endorsement!

Donald J. Trump
‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump
3m3 minutes ago

Kris Kobach, a strong and early supporter of mine, is running for Governor of the Great State of Kansas. He is a fantastic guy who loves his State and our Country - he will be a GREAT Governor and has my full & total Endorsement! Strong on Crime, Border & Military. VOTE TUESDAY!

[maryrose]

I won’t elevate President Trump to the hero status just yet.
He is 18 months into the job and so far has governed in a conservative manner.
Ultimately the power and the position to change things is what the presidency is about in this modern era.
He made the choice to run and knew financially he would take a hit .
I am not ready at this point to nominate him for sainthood.

[maryrose]

Charlotte was the housemother on the Facts of Life tv show a favorite in our household.
Trivia :
What current movie star got his start as a handyman on this show?

[Ralph L]

The election against Kerry wasn’t a nail biter.
The Swiftboaters saved it for W, not Rove, and it shouldn't have been close at all.

[matt - deplore me if you must]

Drezner + Rove = 0

It is in fact a zero sum equation.

Pairing Looney Tune excerpts with Dem comments and blurts would seem to be an effective tool. Finish it up with a pan of a once beautiful Caracas neighborhood or food lines in Habana might get the point across.

[jimmyk]

I try not to link the NYT, but this is an obit of a someone we knew (husband of Mrs K's college roommate, we went to their wedding exactly 18 years ago). Pretty remarkable guy, fiercely non-partisan, if that makes sense. Struggled with multiple myeloma the last seven years. Just 63.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/02/obituaries/michael-sheehan-counterterrorism-expert-dies-at-63.html

[GUS]

I think the FULL COMMIE party will get the "TRANSGENDER" vote.

If Snoooozie wants to make himself useful, he will get ahead of the VOTER FRAUD situation.

Unless he's too bizzzzy playing 4-D in his bunker.

[Miss Marple]

maryrose,

That's fine. It's just what I think. No one is required to agree with me.

[clarice feldman]

maryrose, I confess I googled it--George Clooney!!

[James D.]

Oh, give us a hard question, Maryrose!

Who is George Clooney?

[GUS]

Ralph you are correct, add to that Kerry's running mate was JOHN EDWARDS or was it JAMES TAYLOR.

The FULL COMMIE will vote for ANYONE who goes FULL COMMIE. MAD MAX would get their vote.

[GUS]

Was it George Clooney Maryrose?

He is awful, and I mean awful.

[clarice feldman]

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/08/its_time_to_hold_democrats_responsible_for_chicagos_violence.html

[Miss Marple]

clalrice,

I didn't know you were related to Charlotte Rae.

Those girls who were on the Facts of Life with her have remained friends with her ever since. That's pretty amazing.

[GUS]

Clarice, is DAVID HOGG riding his bike to SHITCAGO??
How a bout NEIL KAEPERNICK, is he protesting the BLACK on BLACK slaughter??
Midnight basketball, there's the solution.

[Captain Hate]

The election against Kerry wasn’t a nail biter.

Bush only got 286 electoral votes against a candidate only the Massholes could stand the sight of, compared to 306 for Trump.

I'm sure Rove, along with that other halfwit, Joe Trippi, were responsible for feeding Chris Wallace bogus 2016 polling data making Fox just as worthless as the other alphabet networks. Some of the FNS shows were just amazing to watch as the pinched faced Wallace hectored Kellyanne and Manafort with dire predictions of a historic landslide and suggesting that DJT should drop out and turn things over to some squishy loser that nobody wanted. It was at that point that I had my fill of that trash network which Rupert and his brats have ruined.

[Jim Eagle]

Your Latin Phrase of the Day:

Non viribus et celeritate corporum magna gerimus, sed sapientia et arte.

If I was the RNC, and Trump, I would welcome Rove opening his piehole at least once a day because all you have to do is the exact opposite of what he recommends, and everything will be good.

[GUS]

Capn, take a look at FOX'S reporting on the ANTIFA VIOLENCE in BERKELEY yesterday. Look who is masked, look who is violent, look who is arrested and LISTEN to how the 2 groups are described.
A group protesting MARXISM is attacked.
FOX makes it sound like it's not ok to protest Marxism, but it is OKAY to be a VIOLENT FULL COMMIE.

[Tom R]

This thread title is one my favorite Jimmy Buffett songs.

[Dave (in MA)]

Rick Wilson and James Clapper are the heads of the Nosferatu Lookalikes chapter of the He-Man Trump Haters Club.

[maryrose]

Clarice and Gus —Absolutely correct!
Now for the tiebreaker:
What star got his start on the sitcom Growing Pains?
He was a guest actor for a few episodes.
Ralph:
I remember George W because he got over 50 percent something Clinton never stating that he had a mandate.
Swiftboaters helped but finding out Terayza and Kerry only paid taxes at the 12 percent level clinched it .
Media hid the story about Edwards and his paramour and baby in 2008.

[Sue]

Leonardo DiCaprio and I didn't google. So if I'm wrong, oh well.

[Sue]

I'm sorry to read about Sara.

[Miss Marple]

Dave (in MA),

Wilson and Clapper DO look alike, which is probably why epople don't know who Wilson is. If they see him, they think he's Clapper.

Wilson's Trump hatred is off the charts. I can only conclude he thought he was going to get a cushy job under the Jeb! administration.

[Sue]

With Iraq in the mess that it was in at the time, it is a wonder GWB won. Probably wouldn't have if they had ran anyone but JEffingKerry.

[GUS]

How's the country doing under DJT??

[narciso79]

Yes decaprio was Cameron's younger classmate on growing pains, but his oevre was attack of the killer tomatoes 2.

[maryrose]

Sue:
Correct and even though he is a liberal, I still like his movies.

[Tom R]

What a great weekend for baseball. My son is trying to get a scholarship offer to play college baseball so weekends for the past two months have been hectic travelling across the Southeast going to showcase events. We had another great father/son weekend that started with a showcase on Saturday and then a trip to Buffalo Wild Wings to watch the Yankees/Red Sox game there. We had a second showcase in a different town on Sunday and it finished in time for us to drive home with the Yankees/Red Sox game in the 3rd inning. I've been a hardcore Red Sox fan since 1975 and last night's comeback win was one of the most memorable regular season Yankees/Red Sox I can recall. A dagger in the heart win to complete a 4 game sweep and move to 9.5 game first place lead is sweet!

These day it's hard to be humble when you are a Crimson Tide, Red Sox and Trump fan.

[maryrose]

They thought they could derail Bush’s re-election with Plame fiasco but came up short.
So Bush didn’t get Pennsylvania , Michigan or Wisconsin(difference I believe of about 15,000 votes)I could be a little off on that number wrt Wisconsin.
Reagan was the last one to get those and I am not sure if HW got them or not.
286 is nothing to sneeze at and at the time we were happy with the win.

[maryrose]

TomR:
Hopefully we will get a chance to break our jinx wrt the Red Sox.

[Momto2]

maryrose - I've known for years that most of Hollywood is liberal and was able to just ignore it and enjoy their movies. Lately, they have been *so* nasty and so personal in their attacks on President and his supporters (me), I am finding it is difficult to not think of that when I watch a movie.

[Captain Hate]

Bush created his own problems with Iraq by not addressing the nation with regular status updates and instead let the MFM set the narrative. He was very fortunate in having that gasbag Lurch as an opponent.

[narciso79]

He might have had yeargh, who was the first crush of the nutrooters

[sbwaters]

So if he has a strategy that extends beyond today's impulse what is it?

Sorry, TM, Trump has said many times his goal is neither door number 1 (retain control of the House and Senate) or door number 2 (Win re-election in 2020) but door number 3 (Drain the Swamp).

That means:

1) Retain control of the House and Senate at the midterms faces down unprincipled spineless officials and pundits who claim to be Republicans,
2) Allow Trump to wrap up the deep state cancer represented by collusion in FBI, DOJ, CIA, media, and Democrat Party,
3) Send packing, not all journalists, but those who are fake news journalists,
4) Undermine the dollar lock on politicians by unions, PACs, and Big Chamber, and other selfish globalists,
5) Remind foreign governments that free trade is a choice,
6) Send subversive political correctness packing,
7) Strengthen individuals perceptions at the expense of identity politics groupthink and anti-education schools, and
8) Finally, inoculate individuals to realize that real community demands individuals think for themselves.

There is a lot to be gained by choosing door number 3.

[maryrose]

TomR:
Good luck to your son.

[James D.]

I've been a hardcore Red Sox fan since 1975

Oh, God, another one?

[maryrose]

SBW:
Would like more immediate progress on the number 2 objective.

[Jim Eagle]

sbw,

I see Fake News journalism a little different. To me it is not so much fake, but by questioning, criticism the Trump agenda, they are actually promoting the competing political agenda that is very much anti-free market, anti-less government interference, and pro-government.

[Neo]

A new study from Harvard showed that when employees move from a traditional office to an open plan office, it doesn't cause them to interact more socially or more frequently.

Instead, the opposite happens. They start using email and messaging with much greater frequency than before. In other words, even if collaboration were a great idea (it's a questionable notion), open plan offices are the worst possible way to make it happen.

[maryrose]

Number 2 being the swamp and overhaul of the FBI, State, Justice and consequences for felons and traitors.
JamesD:
Not a Red Sox fan but was glad when they won after so many years in the wilderness.
We in Cleveland know how that feels

[narciso79]

Bezos commentary is like learned discourse on unicorns

https://thefederalist.com/2018/08/06/4-things-learned-fbis-mostly-redacted-steele-documents/

In retrospect we see the anti Iraq initiative was conducted much the same way as crossfire hurricane and the dossier combo, there were selective leaks from drumheller and murray, grenier it al who leaked to drogin landay priest shane it al about wmd sources, interrogation procedures it al, this shaped the narrative.

[sbwaters]

they are actually promoting the competing political agenda that is very much anti-free market, anti-less government interference, and pro-government

I think you give fake news journalists credit for thinking this out.

[Extraneus]

Jim Kunstler: The 'NYTimes-Jeong Affair' Represents "Peak SJW Bullshit"

(Click to enlarge.)

[James D.]

Open offices are horrible.

Their only purpose is to make it easier for micro-managing (or just plain sadistic) managers to more easily harass their employees, rather than letting them simply do their jobs.

[maryrose]

Neo:
That is true.
A friend who was a part of the transition of a big company said working next to the accountants was a cause for trying to liven them up a bit.
She would joke” Hey you guys want to keep it down over there” Some
were not amused.

[Extraneus]

I agree that cubicle farms suck. Being mgmt, I've always had an office, but even to walk out and talk to someone in their cube is uncomfortable since everyone around can hear the conversation. I see no great increase in collaboration, and every cube farm I've known has been as quiet as a library.

All the b.s. about the advantages is only just that, invented to obscure the fact that it's all about the cost.

[narciso79]

So the reason we didn't know about curveballs reliability was he was a long time German intelligence asset, something they had neglected to tell the first two officials or more likely they lied when it came to telling drogin and blumental, Ali soufan omitted the fact that his associAte gaudin was ok with the interrogations,

[Extraneus]

So what did Alex Jones do that was so egregious that Facebook, Twitter and YouTube all canceled him within a day.

[narciso79]

Some of these same officials lied to susskind and risen, the lies which continue to the present day regarding the burning of the first Saudi mole in al queda.

[Extraneus]

Huffington Post Editor-in-Chief: Facebook Banning Infowars ‘Too Little, Too Late’

Just looking into that, I see that the HuffPo editor in chief is someone named Lydia Polgreen.

Her Twitter profile indicates that she's married to @candyfight, better known as Candace Feit.

NTTAWWT

[Davod]

"Bush created his own problems with Iraq by not addressing the nation with regular status updates"

This was also known as the Rove gambit.

[Extraneus]

Sorry, not just married to, "the wife of..."

[Miss Marple]

Funny story about open concept.

Way back in the early 70's the township here built a new junior high which was open concept.

My dad was still working for the township as maintenance head, and he came home and told my mom they had lost their minds. He predicted a complete disaster.

They had no classrooms - just cluster areas for instruction. In a junior high. You can imagine the chaos and noise.

After one year they had to retrofit the building at huge expense. LOL!

[henry]

Miss M, I went to junior high in an open plan building. It had walls by the 3rd year in existence.

[boris]

"at this time, Trump is acting on the purest of motives"

That's a big reason so many seem to have trouble understanding Trump. Trump just wants to be a good president by getting the country and its citizens back to liberty and prosperity.

If it even occurs to them they would go "Nah, that's not it no way, gotta be something biggly nefarious just haven't figured it out yet ..."

See ... people "acting on the purest of motives" are supposed to be sanctimonious squishy RINOs and that is so not Trump.

[Dave (in MA)]

James D, the Sox had an 8 game lead at this point in the schedule (14 on July 19) during the Bucky Bleeping Dent season, so keep hope alive.

[Miss Marple]

Wired Sources
‏ @WiredSources

BREAKING: Rouhani backs off, Says Iran open to negotiations with the U.S. - Bloomberg
10:50 AM - 6 Aug 2018
====================

WINNING!!

[Dave (in MA)]

About 25 years ago I was working in a cube where I had to have 3 machines each with a CRT. If I needed to write on something I had to pull a drawer out and put a book across it to use as a writing surface. The ditz on the other side of my cube wall spent most of her time on the phone having arguments with her boyfriend or chatting with her friends about her boyfriend. Another gal diagonally adjacent to mine kept a radio tuned to some top 40 station, but not loud enough to really hear, and at one point for a few weeks, every morning I kept hearing "Iiiiii" , "Iiiiii", "Iiiiii". Turned out to be that annoying Genesis song I Can't Dance.

[Captain Pathology]

Natasha says boris is a crazee squirrel.

[GUS]

My sons' AP MACROECONOMICS BOOK is based on the theories of.....GUESS WHO??

There will be prizes awarded.

[Juicy Fig]

Only OL and Cappy are keeping their options open. . they often give the fish eye to their fellow Happy Wanderers but the air is getting thinner as altitude increases.

[Miss Marple]

GUS,

Krugman? What do I win if I'm right?

[Buford Gooch]

JiB, here's another Latin phrase we can apply to Trump.

Hunc nemo vi neque pecunia superare potuit

[Miss Marple]

Let me emphasize again that Iran is now willing to come to the table.

[GUS]

Krugman is correct. When my son is finished with the textbook, it is yours Miss Marple.
I don't want it.

[boatbuilder]

I have a great deal of respect for LeBron but he did start it, and those Marie Harf glasses aren't fooling anyone.

[Wah. Wah]

What did “garbage people” mean? That by birth or training such toothless, smelly people were subhuman, like refuse? And if Caputo had substituted any other racial minority for his slurs, would he still have his job according to the cannons of progressive censure and Internet lynching? Could he have said something similarly degrading about the attendees of after an open borders or Black Lives Matter rally and still have his job?.

[Miss Marple]

Donald J. Trump
‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

Governor Jerry Brown must allow the Free Flow of the vast amounts of water coming from the North and foolishly being diverted into the Pacific Ocean. Can be used for fires, farming and everything else. Think of California with plenty of Water - Nice! Fast Federal govt. approvals.