Sunday Morning

Here we go again.

They Dazzled Me With Science

This NY Times article on scientific misconduct contains a passage inadvertently explaining conservative distrust of the liberal academic establishment:

...All of [the issues in gathering and interpreting data] makes the most popular food and health studies problematic and frequently contradictory.

In one recent example, an observational study of thousands of people published in The Lancet last year made headlines with its findings that high-carb diets were linked to increased mortality rates and that eating saturated fat and meat was protective. Then in August, a separate team of researchers published an observational study of thousands of people in a related journal, The Lancet Public Health, with contrasting findings: Low-carb diets that were high in meat increased mortality rates.

“You can analyze observational studies in very different ways and, depending on what your belief is — and there are very strong nutrition beliefs out there — you can get some very dramatic patterns,” Dr. Ioannidis said.

No doubt. And the idea of "motivated research" - that data has not been collected and analyzed correctly until it confirms the researchers world-view - surely does not exist only in the field of nutrition science.

Comments

[Evangelical Werewolf]

DOBBS: Tucker, I truly believe what is going on here, what we are witnessing, is not only the corrosive political corruption of the left and these radical DIMMs who sit on particularly the Judiciary Committee but we’re watching a tenet of what has become the Democratic Party’s most important manifesto – and that is to deny American exceptionalism and [Kavanaugh] is extraordinarily exceptional. …This man stands for all that is good and great about this country: his commitment to his studies, to improving himself, his service to the community. My God, how could you ask for anyone better to sit on the Supreme Court?

[Momto2]

To support my theory of a "Hollywood worthy make-over"

Here she is during her polygraph just a few months ago:

And ***Presto*** A serious, polished professor look at the hearing:

[lurkersusie]

Auditioning for CNN or a presidential run?

Report: Flake wasn't pressured, he masterminded the Kavanaugh delay

https://legalinsurrection.com/2018/09/report-flake-wasnt-pressured-he-masterminded-the-kavanaugh-delay/

[CRASH!!]

Unemployment near a 20-year low screams at the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates or risk a too-hot economy. The bond market, not far from a state that typically precedes a recession, says not so fast.

The decision of which to heed looms large when the Fed’s interest-rate setters meet next week. Which path they follow will begin to define whether Chairman Jerome Powell engineers a sustained, recession-free era of full employment, or spoils the party with interest rate increases that prove too much for the economy to swallow.

New Fed staff research and Powell’s own remarks seem to put more weight on the risks of super-tight labor markets, which could mean a shift up in the Fed’s rate outlook and a tougher tone in its rhetoric.

Goldman Sachs economists, for instance, contend the Fed’s “optimal” rate path is “well above market pricing under a broad range of assumptions.” They see four increases likely next year, while investors expect only one or two, a significant gap.

Sounds like the Fed is choosing door number one, focusing on inflation and tightening policy to counter it. That’s what it has typically done since the 1970s.

But this time, as I said, the risks are a lot higher.

First, higher interest rates will, other things being equal, make the dollar stronger. This is a very big deal for the emerging market countries that have borrowed trillions of US dollars and will now have to pay off those loans in ever-more-expensive currency. Since they’ve borrowed most of these dollars from developed-world banks, that means trillions of dollars of potentially non-performing loans, leading to yet another massive bailout of European and American banks and the financial instability that that implies.

Second — and far more systemically dangerous — corporate, government and consumer debt (especially student debt) are all at record levels. Send the economy back into recession with higher interest rates, and government tax revenues, corporate sales and profits, and personal incomes all fall at the same time interest costs are soaring because of those higher rates.

So from emerging markets to US corporations to Washington’s budget to consumers’ balance sheets, the next recession might be death spirals all the way down. Which means rising interest rates will beget much, much lower rates before too long..

[Porchlight]

No worries, Frau. That photo was the only one out there for a day or two (an eon in internet time).

[Ralph L]

Different ears and teeth in the pussyhat photo.

[CRASH!!]

Saudis will be forced.😎 to annul PETRODOLLAR and then you can really start to whine.

[CRASH!!]

So maybe you should shaddup about unemployment.😎

[Porchlight]

I can believe Flake planned the move, ls. But he screwed it up bigly - an amendment was supposed to be introduced but Grassley outfoxed them and adjourned before they could get there.

Flake is stupid.

He did get enough Dems back into their seats for a quorum, though. Haha.

[CRASH!!]

Which leaves them with what to crow about?

Rape Freedumb and MAGA!!

[Extraneus]

I don't see how Flake lands a TV gig without voting no.

[Porchlight]

I don't either, Ext. Hopefully he can be convinced that other things are more important.

[centralcal]

Mike Emanuel

Professor Christine Blasey Ford’s legal team tells #FoxNews it has not been contacted by the FBI about the new probe for Judge Brett Kavanaugh since Friday’s developments.

————————

LOL. They’re trained professionals, trying to get all the “witness” statements first, don’t you think?

[henry]

Pergram
Graham on Fox on Kavanaugh: The FBI background supplemental investigation should be done early part of this week, Monday or Tuesday. Then we'll have a final passage vote later in the week. I'm highly confident he will be confirmed.

[lurkersusie]

If Ford was serious about her attempted rape and
fear for her life allegation she’d press charges against
Kavanaugh in Maryland. His name would be withdrawn
because he’s under criminal investigation. What’s she
waiting for?

[Stephanie, Nene, Not your Normal Grandma]

Thursday?

[Extraneus]

They're trying that, ls. Maryland wrote a letter back saying it was a misdemeanor with a 1 year statute of limitation in 1982.

[Frau Steingehirn]

Do the Ford shysters have "a right" to know the names of people the FBI wants to interview about their useful idiot client?
...and, yes, I can easily believe Ford has been in on it from the beginning but doesn't know how disposable she is.

[Miss Marple (the real one)]

https://www.indystar.com/story/entertainment/dining/2018/09/30/papa-roux-cajun-restaurant-closing-indianapolis/1480123002/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

“Increased taxes and fees just to operate,” Bouvier lamented in a lengthy explanation of why Papa Roux’s will serve its last meals on Oct. 13.

“It certainly feels like the town is suddenly hostile to small business in every possible way.”

=================

Coincidentally, we have a dem mayor and city council, unlike when we had a Republican ex-Marine as mayor.

[pagar, a bacon, ham and sausage supporter]

Not even two hundred thousand, I was hoping for a million or two.

https://www.gofundme.com/support-brett-kavanaugh

[squaredance]

The legal insurrection now makes sense.

Amazing how he think that he was "Saving the SCOTUS and the Senate".

If he believes that he is completely out of his mind. He is, of course, destroying them.

So he is going to run as a Democrat in 2020. The country has lost its mind.

[jimmyk]

What’s she waiting for?

Shh, lurkersusie, don't give her any ideas. Or rather, don't give her scoundrel lawyers any ideas. They might "forget" to tell her the consequences of filing false charges.

[Miss Marple (the real one)]

Donald J. Trump
‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump
5m5 minutes ago

Wow! Just starting to hear the Democrats, who are only thinking Obstruct and Delay, are starting to put out the word that the “time” and “scope” of FBI looking into Judge Kavanaugh and witnesses is not enough. Hello! For them, it will never be enough - stay tuned and watch!

[Miss Marple (the real one)]

Hey @JeffFlake, look at these hilarious cartoons the Kavanaugh family gets to enjoy for another week. Anyway, hope you had fun on 60 Minutes. pic.twitter.com/wuxObskA3O

— Jesse Kelly (@JesseKellyDC) September 30, 2018

Cartoon is at link. Warning: it will infuriate you.

[derwill]

Well, that “stay tuned and watch” sure got my attention.

[derwill]

That cartoon really is disgusting To attack a man through his child is so low it defies words. There really is no stopping place with Dems. No evil they will not embrace.

[stuck on stupid]

In some synagogues, Ecclesiastes was recited yesterday.Chapter 7 verse 26, Koheles (Solomon laments the possibility of being ensnared by an evil woman. The Talmud in Berachot Page 8a https://www.halakhah.com/berakoth/berakoth_8.html
in the fourth paragraph of the link discusses the distinction that Solomon makes in finding the good wife in Proverbs Chapter 18 verse 22. The Talmud makes the distinction in the finding or discovery somewhat like the song looking for Love in all the wrong places.

So what type of findings or discovery will the FBI make in analyzing Ms. Ford? In context , Yiddish has an expression that you got a Metzia which is derived in the discussion of Moza/Moze which is a bargain which sometimes means you got more than you bargained for. Also would like SBW to give distinction between evil and wicked.

[narciso]

Even in Maryland, usually they don't go that far, but remember tom Perez was atty general there.

[Miss Marple (the real one)]

mpagar,

It's up to $379,000 now. Some higher profile people on Tweet have started tweeting the link.

[matt - deplore me if you must]

TM started the conversation in this thread about scientific misconduct. Pop was a rocket scientist who was very well respected. We used to discuss this issue 40 years ago.

The first big problem he saw was that almost all of the scientists engaged in the ecological/environmental sector were not real scientists. He also knew Carl Sagan and while he liked him thought he was a con man.

One of the absolutes of research in science and engineering is reproducibility. How many cases have we seen over the past 20 years of irreproducible results? many. We can't even agree on the food pyramid, much less climate change. Is fat good? Is it bad? Flip a coin.

Yesterday I was trying to get away from the 24/7 Kulturkampf and tuned in the BBC only to hear some dimwit saying that Mann's fraud didn't really matter. Something along the lines that global climate has actually dropped 0.7degrees C over some period of time. But oh no, that only proves Mann correct.

In science today there is a distinct climate of Lysenkoism. The experiments are devised to confirm the theory rather than to see where it goes, which is the real point of experimentation. The data can be falsified and twisted just like Churchill's dictum on statistics.

This trend has spread from anthropology to the other social sciences and now into engineering and pure science. Damn you, Margaret Mead!

[Buckeye]

They're trying that, ls. Maryland wrote a letter back saying it was a misdemeanor with a 1 year statute of limitation in 1982.

Glad to hear that it wasn't a felony to cop a feel back in the day.

Prosecuting this behavior would bring the courts to a grinding halt.

[Eye Doctor .]

Democrats meddle in elections again with the Kavanaugh Ambush
https://canadafreepress.com/article/democrats-meddle-in-elections-again-with-the-kavanaugh-ambush

[narciso]

Well sagan was an astronomer, right, I admit I was a fan of the hard science elements of cosmos, I didn't Neil dunderhead Tyson attempted revamp.

[henry]

Buckeye, the courts would be fine. RBG declares all men guilty (as a group), seizes their assets, and bans them from speaking for eternity. Just one court, about 5 minutes elapsed time. No grinding halt.

[narciso]

In tptetospwct, space 1999, was very silly, but o wee a child back then. Some of the overacting like brian blessed was choice though.

[narciso]

Restrospect, was still its more scientifically grounded than Michael Mann's stargoat sightingm

[Miss Marple (the real one)]

matt,

When I was in college I took a semester of environmental geology. It was the late 70's and we had had some remarkably cold winters.ALL of the material I read was about how we were in danger of a new Ice Age.

After I worked for a couple of years and then married and had my daughter (who needed some surgeries ) I was out of the professioal loop for quite a while.

Imagine my confusion when taking the kids to the pool and the gal next to me on the pool lounges started talking about global warming. She had watched some special on PBS and was repeating it to me. Coincidentally, it was a very hot summer. This conversation was where I heard the now-disproved story of the sheep in South America going blind from cosmic radiation.

People accept global warming on faith, since most people have rudimentary educations in science. It is infuriating.

I am waiting to see if the solar minimum brings us a very cold winter. I look forward to the "experts" explaining that.

[Extraneus]

MONTGOMERY COUNTY POLICE EXPLAIN WHY THEY’RE NOT INVESTIGATING CHRISTINE BLASEY FORD’S ALLEGATIONS

[narciso]

I told you of how after the warmings and inconvenient truth are practically holy writ in the public school system, alchemy would be a step up.

[Buckeye]

Buckeye, the courts would be fine. RBG declares all men guilty (as a group), seizes their assets, and bans them from speaking for eternity. Just one court, about 5 minutes elapsed time. No grinding halt.

You're probably right Henry. Good thing she's on her last legs, so to speak.

[Miss Marple (the real one)]

Humor break:

No one is breaking into this house! pic.twitter.com/7ByP7MfgYL

— viral viral (@xxlfunny1) September 30, 2018

Short video at the link. Good dog!

[JimNorCal]

And yet some say Dems have NO standards.
h/t BJG blog comments.

https://www.gofundme.com/fundraiser-for-julie-swetnick

$75 of $150,000 goal
Raised by 3 people in 4 days

Heh

[Jack is Back!]

Frederick texted me the other day tha Neal DeGrasse Tyson, another rocket scientist (no dissing your dad, matt) has endorsed Trump's Space Force program. Will wonders never cease.

Frederick wants to join it as soon as his Air Force service as a B-2 pilot and playing days for the Jaguars are finished.:)

[Old Lurker]

Jack is correct about the Potomac Safeway.

I live one mile from it.

[narciso]

Was that the only supermarket in suburban Maryland, besides just more squirrel,

[JimNorCal]

If flake organized the 1 week delay, perhaps Dems don't have a plan to use it as a stepping stone.
I mean, they will TRY to use it for impromptu devilry but they didn't have an organized plan.

A bit of a relief, actually.

[Jack is Back!]

$75 of $150,000 goal
Raised by 3 people in 4 days

JimNC,

Former customers?

[Jack is Back!]

narc,

No. On the same four corners, across the Falls Road, is a Giant. In the same area as the Potomac Deli where my daughter worked as a waitress wihen in High School. I need to ask her about all of this. She may know some of the kids since she is younger than them but close enough to their ages. Plus she had boyfriends from GP.

[henry]

Former?

[Miss Marple (the real one)]

thebradfordfile™
‏ @thebradfordfile
3h3 hours ago

Trump has done it.

He turned Cocaine Mitch, Gangster Graham, and Checkmate Chuck into a three-headed MAGA monster.

They aren’t just playing to win.

They’re having fun doing it. 😎

[sbwaters]

JiB, but,but,but ... the reactor!

[JimNorCal]

JiB: "Former customers?"

Ouch! I was guessing her, her lawyer and a friend who had been promised reimbursement LOL.

[narciso]

A real life buckaroo banzai does he play any instruments. Yes its mostly a squirrel thrown out there.

[Miss Marple (the real one)]

Well look at that, fighting back in a trade war actually works.

A massive win for ⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩. https://t.co/h4gSHYf6fS

— John Cardillo (@johncardillo) September 30, 2018

Link goes to a Reuters story about China reducing some tariffs.

[Miss Marple (the real one)]

The ancient Mesopotamians took false charges very seriously. This is from the very beginning of the Code of Hammurabi:

1. If any one ensnare another, putting a ban upon him, but he can not prove it, then he that ensnared him shall be put to death.

2. If any one bring an accusation against a man, and the accused go to the river and leap into the river, if he sink in the river his accuser shall take possession of his house. But if the river prove that the accused is not guilty, and he escape unhurt, then he who had brought the accusation shall be put to death, while he who leaped into the river shall take possession of the house that had belonged to his accuser.

3. If any one bring an accusation of any crime before the elders, and does not prove what he has charged, he shall, if it be a capital offense charged, be put to death.

[Pinandpuller]

jimmyk

I don't know how late I am to the party but the quote you were looking for is from John Adams.

He said this Constitution is only designed for a moral and righteous people. It is wholly unsuitable for another.

Pretty close to that.

[jimmyk]

The ancient Mesopotamians took false charges very seriously.

There's also the 9th Commandment of course.

[Pinandpuller]

Iggy

If you need me to cover your shift tomorrow let me know 😏

[JM Hanes]

Do we know, or have a time frame for, when the internet scrubbing occurred?

[fdcol63 🇺🇸]

“No evil they will not embrace.”

These are people that are fighting to protect ALL abortions, even partial birth abortions, which are INFANTICIDE. They want to keep killing babies.

That’s as evil as you can get. Using repulsive cartoons starring the children of their political targets is nothing to them.

[jimmyk]

(or the 8th by some counts)

Per wiki, Maimonides elaborated on this:

570. Anybody who knows evidence must testify in court (Leviticus 5:1)
571. Carefully interrogate the witness (Deuteronomy 13:14)
572. A witness must not serve as a judge in capital crimes (Deuteronomy 19:17)
573. Not to accept testimony from a lone witness (Deuteronomy 19:15)
574. Transgressors must not testify (Exodus 23:1)
575. Relatives of the litigants must not testify (Deuteronomy 24:16)
576. Not to testify falsely (Exodus 20:16)
577. Punish the false witnesses as they tried to punish the defendant (Deuteronomy 19:19)

(my emphasis)

[Pinandpuller]

Safeways used to have one automatic door in and one out. That's where all the video games and gum ball machines were. That's also where we would recycle cans and bottles so we could play Asteroids.

[Eye Doctor .]

This Doesn’t Look Good: Business Was Listed Operating Out of Christine Ford’s Home – Would Explain Second Door
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/09/this-doesnt-look-good-business-was-listed-operating-out-of-christine-fords-home-would-explain-second-door/

[narciso]

They live is a how to manual for them:

https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/308948/

[Captain Hate]

Is the scientific method taught these days? From the fake science being pushed the answer is surely either "no" or "very poorly".

[Pinandpuller]

It's almost like The Federal Reserve wasn't designed to prevent crashes or something.

[Extraneus]

Do we know, or have a time frame for, when the internet scrubbing occurred?

I don't think so, but it would make sense to bribe someone inside Facebook and Twitter to find out. I don't guess the FBI will try.

You'd think the dates when IDs were deleted would be in their databases, even if the user data is completely wiped.

[henry]

CH, logical positivism (and with it absolute truth) was banished from universities by the early 90s at the latest.

[Captain Hate]

Somewhere there's a log file saying when changes were done. Those can be manipulated too but then that leaves a trail too.

[James D.]

In tptetospwct, space 1999, was very silly

Yes, but the Eagle is one of the coolest sci-fi spaceships ever.

And the look & design of Alpha in general holds up pretty well, especially considering the budget they must have had. They’re running it on weekends on the Comet channel, and I am enjoying it, cheesy as the acting and the stories are.

[Captain Hate]

Thanks, henry.

[narciso]

Yes they were solid on the design, the commercials have a scene with a very hippy looking Christopher lee, I remember I had the transport back then, just the notion that the moon could fly out of the solar system.

[narciso]

Covering with a pillow:
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13042/eu-internet-censorship

[narciso]

Satire has gone zombie:
https://mobile.twitter.com/pspoole/status/1046402461047705601?p=v

[Jack is Back!]

Well, the things you learn when you ask.

Daughter doesn't know the cast of characters, but is working on the remodel of his potenial office at SCOTUS. She is an restoration artist and does faux painting on the floors. PIcked out his (hopefully, his) flooring and will do all the faux painting on them. Currently doing the SCOTUS conference room. Just finished dining room at German Embassy.

That is the SCOTUS conference room she is working on. She also did Scalia's office for Gorsuch. A mess. He threw his cigarettes on the floor. LOL.

[Miss Marple (the real one)]

jimmyk,

I posted that excerpt from the Code of Hamurabi because someone mentioned it on Twitter, so I went to look it up.

You are quite right the prohibition on bearing false witness is one of the Ten Commandments. I was just struck by how it was more prevalent than I thought. (Quite a deterioration into accepting Taqiyah as a legitimate practice under Islam. )

[Jack is Back!]

Hopefully, Kav's new office at SCOTUS.

Kav's office (maybe).

[Old Lurker]

Lest there was any doubt about the Dems winning the House then using that to launch Trump's Impeachment:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/09/30/trumps-tax-returns-will-be-target-democrats-probe-if-win-house-in-midterms.html

[Janet 🚬]

((Do we know, or have a time frame for, when the internet scrubbing occurred?))

Hahahaaa! Of course not. That question makes too much sense.
Foundation, basic info, & facts?
What are you thinking?

[henry]

narciso, seems when China went with Social Credit Scores, the EU got jealous and did a "hold my beer." All the big social tech code from both appears to run under the covers here. Globalism, what can't it oppress?

[James D.]

Narc @ 4:48

Yeah, you can’t think about it very hard. It does kind of push “suspension of disbelief” well past the breaking point.

[Momto2]

JIB - what a cool profession your daughter has! I hope Kav walks/stands on those floors for decades and this will all be an awful memory that fades with time.

[Pinandpuller]

Doggone it I got that backwards. I haven't got my mind right with the new norm.

[Buckeye]

JiB

Your daughter has a very interesting job.

Reminds me of my niece, who works for her dad, a residential general contractor.

Beth has an Art degree and makes a living doing tile, and brings her artistic flair to the job.

Her dad says they have kitchen and bathroom work booked into 2020.

[Jack is Back!]

Buck,

At least she gets paid (big bucks). She picked out the flooriing but the guys who lay it are all volunteers from around the country. She is also doing the Decatur House, which is a big deal for her, since it is The White House Historical Association.

She says it is laborius but fun and keeps her mind focused. Like Gabriel Allon on restoriing old masters, but she's not a Mossad trained killer:)

[Pinandpuller]

CBF is a victim trapped in a partisan activist's body and we must all call her her preferred pronoun. FULL COMMIES demand we conform to their crazy.

[narciso]

How long has that remodel been going on?

So glancing through Lawrence of Arabia one notes that the howeitats leader al auda plays a pivotal role, guess who is the successor in that clan, the bin talals.

[Old Lurker]

"but she's not a Mossad trained killer:)"

What makes you think you would know if she were?

[Buckeye]

Buckeyette is leaving tomorrow on her first business trip overseas.

First stop the Netherlands to hammer out a deal with one of daddy's competitors, and then London to solve a potential logistics problem.

Seems Brexit has lead to lots of slow downs in shipments to the EU countries from the UK.

She seems pretty excited, particularly that they fly business class:)

[narciso]

Well she wasn't trained at the Phillips gallery like Sarah bancroft?

[James D.]

I was just about to say the same thing, OL!

[Old Lurker]

:-) James

[Pinandpuller]

Does TM have a prohibition of using that Jenner gal's old first name? I used it in a comment that got booted three times.

It does the same at Patterico if you say 'shyster.'

[Jack is Back!]

OL,

I'd know because I'd be dead by now:) I grounded her from driving after her second fender bender back in the Wooton days.

She's an American U grad in fine arts. Never thought she'd ever make a living out it. Boy did she prove me wrong.

Remember the Potomac Deli? She worked there in high school. I would go in on weekends for the blintzes.

[Jack is Back!]

narc,

They got the order in July when he was nominated. Got final approval in August some time. I have to ask her if he had any input to her decisions on the flooring and painting. She didn't tell me.

[Pinandpuller]

I have to say for the first time in my adult life I think Scalia was a real asshole. Who treats a floor like that?

[Pinandpuller]

If you set drinks down on bare wood, you also are an asshole. Go ahead and sleep with a pillow firmly over your face.

Scalia obviously should have had nocturnal 02 or. CPAP.

[Old Lurker]

She probably served me many times Jack! I do miss that place. Took the team there after many a swim meet.

I LOVE seeing artists use their talents and make real money.

I had some columns in my house and my BIL was dating a struggling artist. I handed her a piece of green marble and told her if she could make those columns look like that marble, I would pay her an hourly rate a number of times higher than she had ever earned doing anything. She did and I did, and she never looked back. Twenty five years later, every time I buy one of her paintings we laugh about my columns which still fool the eyes of most observers.

Funny thing is that anybody who knows art history knows how often the great masters had to "paint bathrooms" between great commissions.

[lurkersusie]

Comey trying to influence an investigation

https://mobile.twitter.com/Comey/status/1046504085460058123

[henry]

Comey one of a flood of "Kav lied" tweets. Based on the idea that Ford was a font of truth or something. Seems to replace the "too much beer" approach.