Don't Blame Me!

The AP headlines [transcript] the idea that Trump won't take responsibility for a Democratic takeover of the House. And should he? Trump raises the valid point that a midterm setback is quite normal, as Reagan, Clinton and Obama can attest (Bush 43 washed out in his second midterm but gained seats in the first, joining FDR as modern Presidents with first midterm gains.)

The AP also makes this hagiographic claim:

AP: Eight years ago, Barack Obama said he got shellacked, so you know, taking the outcome of the election as a referendum on himself.

Well, yeah, not really. Several early questions prodded him to accept the election as a repudiation of the health care bill or his overall agenda and he declined. This is fro his opening statement:

Now, I ran for this office to tackle these challenges and give voice to the concerns of everyday people.  Over the last two years, we’ve made progress.  But, clearly, too many Americans haven’t felt that progress yet, and they told us that yesterday. And as President, I take responsibility for that.

And the first question, from Bern Feller of the AP:

Q    Thank you, Mr. President.  Are you willing to concede at all that what happened last night was not just an expression of frustration about the economy, but a fundamental rejection of your agenda?  And given the results, who do you think speaks to the true voice of the American people right now:  you or John Boehner?

THE PRESIDENT:  I think that there is no doubt that people’s number-one concern is the economy.  And what they were expressing great frustration about is the fact that we haven’t made enough progress on the economy.  We’ve stabilized the economy. We’ve got job growth in the private sectors.  But people all across America aren’t feeling that progress.  They don't see it.  And they understand that I’m the President of the United States, and that my core responsibility is making sure that we’ve got an economy that's growing, a middle class that feels secure, that jobs are being created.  And so I think I've got to take direct responsibility for the fact that we have not made as much progress as we need to make.

The "shellacking" came later.

Q    Thank you, Mr. President.  How do you respond to those who say the election outcome, at least in part, was voters saying that they see you as out of touch with their personal economic pain?  And are you willing to make any changes in your leadership style?

THE PRESIDENT:  There is a inherent danger in being in the White House and being in the bubble.  I mean, folks didn’t have any complaints about my leadership style when I was running around Iowa for a year.  And they got a pretty good look at me up close and personal, and they were able to lift the hood and kick the tires, and I think they understood that my story was theirs. I might have a funny name, I might have lived in some different places, but the values of hard work and responsibility and honesty and looking out for one another that had been instilled in them by their parents, those were the same values that I took from my mom and my grandparents.

And so the track record has been that when I’m out of this place, that's not an issue.  When you’re in this place, it is hard not to seem removed.  And one of the challenges that we’ve got to think about is how do I meet my responsibilities here in the White House, which require a lot of hours and a lot of work, but still have that opportunity to engage with the American people on a day-to-day basis, and know -- give them confidence that I’m listening to them.

Those letters that I read every night, some of them just break my heart.  Some of them provide me encouragement and inspiration.  But nobody is filming me reading those letters.  And so it’s hard, I think, for people to get a sense of, well, how is he taking in all this information?

So I think there are more things that we can do to make sure that I’m getting out of here.  But, I mean, I think it’s important to point out as well that a couple of great communicators, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, were standing at this podium two years into their presidency getting very similar questions because the economy wasn’t working the way it needed to be and there were a whole range of factors that made people concerned that maybe the party in power wasn’t listening to them.  
This is something that I think every President needs to go through because the responsibilities of this office are so enormous and so many people are depending on what we do, and in the rush of activity, sometimes we lose track of the ways that we connected with folks that got us here in the first place.  

And that’s something that -- now, I’m not recommending for every future President that they take a shellacking like they -- like I did last night.  (Laughter.)  I’m sure there are easier ways to learn these lessons.  But I do think that this is a growth process and an evolution.  And the relationship that I’ve had with the American people is one that built slowly, peaked at this incredible high, and then during the course of the last two years, as we’ve, together, gone through some very difficult times, has gotten rockier and tougher.  And it’s going to, I’m sure, have some more ups and downs during the course of me being in this office.

But the one thing that I just want to end on is getting out of here is good for me, too, because when I travel around the country, even in the toughest of these debates -- in the midst of health care last year during the summer when there were protesters about, and when I’m meeting families who’ve lost loved ones in Afghanistan or Iraq -- I always come away from those interactions just feeling so much more optimistic about this country.  

I should add, Investors Business Daily went off like a rocket after Obama assessed his second midterm disaster in 2014.

MORE: A prediction market.

Comments

[rse]

Am I first?

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

They have a steep learning curve:

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/10/the-european-reaction-to-khashoggi.php

So khashoggi was to headline a investment conference in Washington on behalf of his water I handlers.

[jimmyk]

I think the Rs will keep the House, but if they don't, I won't blame Trump. As Beasts said, it's the candidates themselves. Or maybe to narrow it down, the House leadership.

[jimmyk]

And if Mueller's report is not coming out till after the election, I'm assuming it's good for Trump.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

I'm old enough to remember when they called bin Laden a known saudi dissident:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ahmed/status/1052549801974218753

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Mueller will stuff his burrito with filler, like he's always done.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

-- the height of cheek --

Genius Elliott, pure genius.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

In politics where voter enthusiasm is extremely important I'm not sure I can place more blame on a guy who barnstorms the country whipping up enthusiasm and whose policies have transformed the GOP than people who tamp down enthusiasm because they just know there has to be a dark cloud around because they see a silver lining and who make the perfect the enemy of the good, if an election doesn't go how we like it to.

And I'm not sure I'd assign much blame either direction when it is historically normal [though not inevitable] for the party in power to lose seats in an off year.

[henry]

Blame Sessions.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

I blame, OL.
Mover and shaker in DC; never satisfied; always depressing; has a cloud over his head; and the most telling tell of all, is a frickin DONKEY!
Obviously on Soros's payroll.

[Miss Marple]

I am Pooh to Old Lurker's Eeyore.

Posh loved Eeyore all the same, you know.

[Miss Marple]

Pooh love Eeyore all the same.

😍

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

No sword formed against us will prosper:

https://www.11alive.com/mobile/article/news/local/atlanta-city-council-votes-to-settle-12-million-lawsuit-with-former-fire-chief/85-604676694

[sbwaters]

On the Internet Bill of Rights...

They are not rights.

You can’t make them rights.

You want to talk about goals, go ahead.

But stuff the “rights” crap.

[henry]

sbw, lets just call it socialist aims and be done with it.

[Jane]

The only people who will blame Trump are liberals, media (ok they same thing) and Never Trumpers - and I really couldn't care less.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

I don't think you've been reading too carefully, Jane.

[henry]

Does this count as an own goal?

Chris Conroy @dyfl
10h

If you missed it: today it was confirmed that Facebook massively & knowingly inflated its video-view statistics, which had the DIRECT consequence of 90% of media orgs firing writers in favor of expensive video producers, who also got fired when it turned out video was worthless

https://twitter.com/dyfl/status/1052403439613829120

[Threadkiller]

Does this mean Trump gets no credit for an R victory in November?

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

If the Dems take the house I will blame Trump precisely 1/1024th for the loss.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Of course the Washington post that allows an ilkwan enabler, whose religion column was headed by a practicing Wiccan and not the nice kind won't pick up on this.

Our enemies believe on to death, what do we believe. Bolsanaro who might be unnecessarily blunt at times is supported by the evangelicals in Brazil why is that?

[Jim Eagle]

All house elections are retail politics, and each candidate in each district is responsible for the win or loss. However, Trump does more retail outreach for candidates than any POTUS of my time. He is right, don't blame him.

House candidates need to focus on GOTV, local issues, discriminate themselves from their competitor, and talk about the positive economy, as well as the future under a Democrat house. It really is a door-to-door game. Also, the GOP/RNC will need a saturation of ads in the last 10 days for every district under threat.

My gut says Trump helps more than hurts with his rallies,and GOP keeps the House but not by much.

[henry]

The Wall Street Journal @WSJ
1m

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says it is "reasonable" to believe Saudi denials of involvement in journalist’s disappearance

[Threadkiller]

If the Dems take the house I will blame Trump precisely 1/1024th for the loss.

Greater than 0%. Exactly what I said when my choice of words became the issue.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

What is the Portuguese word for prof heartburn:

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5bc62b71e4b055bc947ae270/amp

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Does this mean Trump gets no credit for an R victory in November?--

That's a subjective irrational argument.

Would Churchill have been to blame had the UK lost WW2 despite his efforts? I don't think so.
Does that mean he didn't deserve credit that it did prevail?

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Greater than 0%.--

Yep. And just as meaninglessly greater than zero as the context in which Warren used it.

[Extraneus]

And if Mueller's report is not coming out till after the election, I'm assuming it's good for Trump.

Me too.

[henry]

Mueller's report could be the impeachment launch following the blue wave. Not necessarily good for Trump.

[Beasts of England]

I think I'll skip this thread. 😂

[Eye Doctor .]

Too Deep To Drain – Aspects Lost in the James Wolfe Pleading…
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/10/15/too-deep-to-drain-aspects-lost-in-the-james-wolfe-pleading/

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

If you dial past the ambient noise, did you see the shout out to that new show shot in huntsville.

[Threadkiller]

What it the rational objective* argument that Trump should get more than a meaningless amount of credit for an R victory in November?

*(please see synonym/similar word chart on previous thread if there is confusing on the actual question, which there shouldn't be)

[Stephanie, Nene, Not your Normal Grandma]

Well Varney had his day made. OMG I thought he was going to collapse in a puddle of joy. It was lovely to see him rewarded for his efforts on his show when Trump dropped in.

[Threadkiller]

One of the 3x5 cards in my Goal-odex notes that Mueller's report would be timed to secure a midterm victory.

I will move that goal card to another section...

[Threadkiller]

What is...

...any confusion...

[The Gipper Lives]

We're supposed to be all broken up because Osama bin Laden's best friend may have bought it at the hands of other Saudis?

Every day there is another Kate Steinle in America--and that's something these politicians could fix. Do these people give a damn about Americans? No. Only about this partner of terrorists.

Why was al Qaeda's chief propagandist given a job writing terrorist propaganda at the WaPo, anyway? Was Khalid Sheik Muhammed unavailable? Does the Washington Post even remember that other bin Ladenists tried to level Wahington D.C. with jetliners? It was in all the real papers.

Khashoggi's plan is to flood America with Muslims, create an alliance with transgendered bike racers, Prof. Ford's Deep State beach friends, the Willing Slave Media and bitter, clinging failed presidential candidates and then institute a Sharia dictatorship democratically.

And then, after making Americans third-class citizens in their own country, cancel elections. As fellow Muslim Brother-hood Erdogan puts it, "Democracy is like a train: when you reach your destination, you get off." In fairness, he was quoting John Brennan.

What if Erdogan, the Ayatollah and all the rest of the Brotherhood sent Khashoggi? Gave him a suicide pill and sent him into the embassy as a kind of diplomatic suicide bomber? He could do much more damage than a regular bomber by blowing up the alliance and the arms deal.

By the way, Erdogan, who is conducting this "investigation", regularly disappears journalists and other political enemies himself. Real journalists, not al Qaeda spokesmen.

Are we going to ban every regime whose political opponents mysteriously disappear? If so, we going to have to cut off relations with Turkey, Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, China, and Russia.

And the Clintons.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

We know all their plays going after Collins and Hunter are about pushing the delay card Mueller is as irresponsible as Walsh, but the economy is whirring along and we don't have a protracted conflict like with Iraq they tried the Katrina card with Puerto Rico, but that's had limited success.

[JM Hanes]

Old Lurker:

If you are going to blame Trump for losing the House, then you'll have to credit him with increasing the Republican Senate majority, no? So where does that leave you?

[suburban gal]

ME associations and alliances are so complicated--why they are still labeled Byzantine. However, people ought to start checking into CNNs odd relationship with Erdogan and who decided that Kasshogi should be hired and publically promoted by Wapo. Some interesting connections...

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

I have yet to be convinced that there is some large pile of criminals for whom there is some easy path to conviction regarding what occurred. And the crimes that can easily be proven are relatively minor ones like lying to congress or the FBI.
Many of these people have the cover of prosecutorial/investigative immunity that needs to be surmounted and most of them are too smart to plainly state they are breaking a law and nearly all of them are smart enough to destroy evidence, especially since the people collecting the evidence were helping them do it. On top of that is the traditional reluctance to prosecute top officials without absolutely clearcut criminal activity.

If you really want to undermine the rule of law and cement in place the idea Dems are righteous and Reps have a culture of corruption AND condemn the country to prog rule, forget about a systematic, decades long and incremental reversal of the prog project through political means, just as they have primarily built their project, and instead place your bet on a make or break plan to throw Hillary and maybe even Barry and their top minions in jail. Fail at that, which is a very real possibility if not a probability, and YOU are back in the post Watergate political wilderness, which at this point is probably the death knell for a political solution, period.
Kenn Starr is no dummy and all he could get the Clintons on was BillyJeff's undeniable crime. He knew Hillary was dirty as hell but he also knew the case was a loser.

If you want to remain king, you better be sure and kill the ex King if you're going to give it a shot.

The breakdown of the rule of law is real but it is primarily a symptom of the breakdown of our political institutions. Fix them if you want the rule of law to return. The country can very much survive if this bunch of Dems gets away with it, just as it has long survived innumerable corrupt individuals and organizations and political machines getting away with it. It can't survive the prog project prevailing, and while convicting this batch of creeps would help that effort it, would not assure it and its failure would almost certainly mean an eventual violent resolution of the prog's anti American aims.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

I would think David Ignatius since he used to have a clue, suburban gal

https://mobile.twitter.com/CalebJHull/status/1052197896542674945

[JM Hanes]

Conventional wisdom suggests that House elections are least susceptible to prognostication based on the national polling and most dependent on local conditions, concerns and connections. I actually think that the 2010 midterms were the exception that proved the rule. Assuming there really is a rule. I've often been amazed at how negligible the actual underpinnings of assertions about "historic" election trends can be.

Even if Hillary and Obama and their bureaucratic henchmen were all sitting in jail right now, I'm not sure it would change local House election results all that much. In fact, it might just clear the decks for a Dem fresh start. Time to "move on," the bad apples are gone, we're looking "forward" not backward ...... etc etc etc.

If I have to blame someone, I'd blame the House leadership, for not spending these two years passing the transformative legislation we've been promised so long, and sending it on to the Senate and the Prez. Unfortunately, Republican candidates have little enough to brag about.

[Threadkiller]

If you are going to blame Trump for losing the House, then you'll have to credit him with increasing the Republican Senate majority, no? 

The reverse of this is the point I have been attempting to make. (But words got in the way)

Shouldn't those who are prepared to give Trump a share of the credit accept that the same metrics allow for him to get a share of the blame?

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Why am I getting ads for Tony evers winning the future.

[Clarice Feldman]

JMH, I agree on the question of "historic trends" in Congressional elections.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--please see synonym/similar word chart--

The question was whether subjective means irrational.
It doesn't.

[Threadkiller]

The question was whether subjective means irrational.
It doesn't. 

The question should have been whether I meant to use "objective."

Instead it was cheap point scoring.

[jimmyk]

Shouldn't those who are prepared to give Trump a share of the credit accept that the same metrics allow for him to get a share of the blame?

That doesn't follow, TK. There was Iggy's Churchill analogy. Here's another: A guy hits 3 HRs and drives in all 6 runs for a team. If the team wins, he gets a lot of the credit. If the bullpen blows the lead and they lose 7-6, he doesn't get the blame.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--The question should have been whether I meant to use "objective."--

Huh?
Cap'n asked if there was an objective analysis in politics other than vote counting.
You said you hoped so otherwise our opinions of Sassehole and the like would be irrational.
You seemed to be plainly stating that if an opinion is not objective it isn't rational.
So how could you have "meant to use objective"?

This looks like one of those rabbit holes that occur not infrequently so I think I'll go chase another rabbit.

[henry]

The United States will begin withdrawing from the Universal Postal Union, a United Nations treaty that lowered rates for foreign postal deliveries in the United States, a senior White House official said on Wednesday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/17/trump-to-pull-out-of-global-postal-treaty-in-latest-move-against-china.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain

[JM Hanes]

Threadkiller:

"Shouldn't those who are prepared to give Trump a share of the credit accept that the same metrics allow for him to get a share of the blame?"

Not if we assume that the House elections are a reflection of local constituencies, while the Senate elections are part of a much larger picture. That's why national polling is useful on the one hand and not on the other.

[Old Lurker]

JMH "If you are going to blame Trump for losing the House, then you'll have to credit him with increasing the Republican Senate majority, no? So where does that leave you?"

Of course I would give him credit for increasing support in the Senate. And as I have said often, I will also give him credit for saving the House if that happens and then, against all my advice to the contrary, he will still have all of his Law & Order powder ready to use. Happy Days! How much more clearly do I have to say that?

My point, though some of you, OK many of you, are unwilling to see it, is that the whole ball game is in the House this time. Nothing good will get to the Senate from a Dem House so those guys, however many there might be, might as well go on vacation. And that includes, unless the numbers and makeup change a lot so that the fence sitters are disempowered, any new SCOTUS nominations. Oh wait. After 20 months of endless hearings, articles of impeachment will be sent to the Senate just before the 2020 election after having been run into the ground during the campaign season. By then it will matter not that it will not survive a vote in the Senate.

You (not you JMH) say I am too pessimistic - OK - but when you accuse me of moving the goalposts, or never seeing good that has been accomplished, or not appreciating how hard he works and how noble is his intent, well then you are all just dead wrong.

Go back through two years of my comments and find a time where restoration of the Rule of Law was not at the top of my hot buttons.

Without that, we got nuthin.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Nothing good will get to the Senate from a Dem House so those guys, however many there might be, might as well go on vacation. And that includes, unless the numbers and makeup change a lot so that the fence sitters are disempowered, any new SCOTUS nominations. --

?
They just got Kavanaugh through with a majority of only one Rep and they have pushed through many, many lower court judges.
Your argument seems subjective, OL. :)

[Old Lurker]

JMH "Not if we assume that the House elections are a reflection of local constituencies, while the Senate elections are part of a much larger picture. That's why national polling is useful on the one hand and not on the other."

Except that, like Newt did in 1994, Trump has made this a National Election and a mandate on himself and his agenda. By his own words. Often.

And I agree with him.

[daddy on iPad]

Thank you for offering your evaluations.

(c) Lizzie Warren checked a box
reserved for those of native stock
Brazenness that does bespeak
the zenith, nay, the height of cheek

Posted by: Elliott | October 17, 2018 at 01:41 AM

Too good for only 1 thread.

[Old Lurker]

Hell Iggy, it is ALL subjective!

FTR, Kavanaugh squeaked through the Senate because despite all the smoke, there was no credible charge against Trump personally or his right to be POTUS. Once his tax returns and all the other slime gets created and implanted in the body politic, the meme will be that we must not allow a person who might well be kicked out of office or even sent to jail to make the pivotal, historic change in the Supreme Court that replacing X will mean. That's not who we are.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

They will make up carp? They've been looking in the dry well of his taxes and doubled down recently, that's why they moved to the khashoggi kerfluffle.

[Threadkiller]

So how could you have "meant to use objective"?

Because I should have used the Merriam Webster's similar word, "rational." Allowing me to correct that error wasn't allowed, apparently.

This looks like one of those rabbit holes that occur not infrequently so I think I'll go chase another rabbit.

Try Patterico's. He enjoys arguments of poor choices of words to escape arguing the obvious point made in an uneraseable comment blog that could have been clearer.

[jimmyk]

Nothing good will get to the Senate from a Dem House

On the glass half full side, nothing really bad will get through the Senate or a Presidential veto. The Dems will shoot themselves in the foot with patently ridiculous investigations, piss off voters, and virtually guarantee Trump's reelection and takeback of the House in 2020.

And besides judges, a lot of good can happen without the House, via executive orders, and rescinding a lot of Obama's orders. And foreign policy is still largely in the hands of the President and Senate.

[boris]

"Shouldn't those who are prepared to give Trump a share of the credit accept that the same metrics allow for him to get a share of the blame?"

Not impossible but the logic is flawed.

Trump could improve the odds of keeping the house by 10% and still not be enough. So no, there's no question in my mind that Trump is a net increase and therefore credit if win and no acceptance of any blame.

[Threadkiller]

A guy hits 3 HRs and drives in all 6 runs for a team. If the team wins, he gets a lot of the credit. If the bullpen blows the lead and they lose 7-6, he doesn't get the blame.

What if, prior to the game, he assured the bullpen he would drive in 10 runs?

[Old Lurker]

Narc, no tax return of any active real estate developer, even if 100% correct and accurate, can not be sliced and diced and stated by a dozen CPA's to be dead wrong and cheating. And no such tax return, even though 100% correct and accurate, can not be made to seem dishonest to the average guy in the street who gets a W-2 and pays tax each year. I am a piker in this industry, and even I used absolutely legal tax losses from developments under construction to "shelter" (actually defer) otherwise taxable income for nearly twenty years, knowing full well that when the shelter period expired, my catchup taxes would exceed ten million. And they did and I paid them without objection. There is no free lunch for honest taxpayers, but the timing of paying the lunch tab is flexible under the law.

[Old Lurker]

Jimmy, how are you going to extend the Tax Law without the House?

[boris]

"What if, prior to the game, he assured the bullpen he would drive in 10 runs?

What if he didn't but some 4D poster assured JOM he would drive in 10 runs? How much blame goes to the player vs the poster. That's the real question here as far as I'm concerned.

[Old Lurker]

TK, this is a tough crowd.

Fun though, you must admit!

:-)

[henry]

Not sure what this is about... or who this person is / works for:

Tom Winter
@Tom_Winter

BREAKING / NBC News: Natalie Mayflower Sours Edwards has been arrested by the FBI and will face federal charges for leaking FinCEN Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) to media organizations.

[Threadkiller]

How much blame goes to the player vs the poster. That's the real question here as far as I'm concerned.

Circling right back to my 1st comment on the topic. Thank you!

[henry]

Ah, Treasury Dept.

A U.S. Treasury employee has been arrested and charged with leaking to a reporter multple reports about suspicious financial transactions pertaining to former Trump campaign chief Paul Manafort, Trump campaign official Richard Gates, accused Russian agent Maria Butina and the Russian Embassy, federal law enforcement officials said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/17/us-treasury-employee-arrested-on-charges-of-leaking-reports-to-media.html

[jimmyk]

Jimmy, how are you going to extend the Tax Law without the House?

Aren't the current rates good through 2025? So there's time, though it would help to do it well in advance. I do wonder why the Senate wouldn't take up the extension the House passed in September.

[Threadkiller]

Tough, fun, and intelligent, OL. That is why the word game garbage got under my skin.

I'm gonna split before the comment counters chime in. ;-)

[matt - deplore me if you must]

There are over 1,000 members of the Saudi Royal Family and the internal politics are violent and very confusing. Further, Salman has made a huge number of enemies inside and outside the family, especially the imams.

Allowing women to drive is haram to hard core Wahabbis. He's one a number of other things like stripping some of the cronies of billions and billions of Rials/Dollars.

He has probably made more enemies more quickly than anyone in the history of the Kingdom. That may include American politicians who have benefited from Saudi money as well.

Saudi Arabia is a linchpin of our ME policy and the global economy and we are wise to be extremely cautious.

Instead we have the media an the Left baying for sanctions and extreme measures when we have no verifiable evidence yet.

Who was behind it? Why? How? All of these questions must be answered first.

And then we have to make the best decision for our country's interests. I see very little of this in our media. Which means it's all about politics again.

[maryrose]

OL:
Totally agree with your post
Republican leadership has raised tons of money for these House races.
Thank you Paul Ryan.
Has pushed President Trump’s agenda but is waiting for the Senate to pass many of these bills.
Blame:
House races to quote Tip ONeill falls into the all politics is local category.
I firmly believe exposing the criminals would have helped with House elections by limiting the voting participation of Dems and Independents and Never Trumpers.
Solomon said last night on Hannity probably no disclosure on documents before the election.
If the House is lost and part of the reason is because we did not expose this when we had the chance before the election, yes I will blame President Trump in part.
I already credit him with helping in the Senate races with his rallies and success in foreign affairs and the economy.
If Dems pull a fast one on the eve of the election I expect the full power of the Executive Office to rain blame and expose criminal wrongdoing across the board.
WRT to Wolfe, evidently Grassley has been left out of the loop as to why he wasn’t prosecuted.
If he flipped on someone shouldn’t we have a name and a face to pin this ongoing corruption on? none of these perps will be prosecuted
If Dems take House( full disclosure, I don’t think they will)

[Old Lurker]

Per the cliche "At the end of the day", it simply comes down to whether you think the loss of the House will ruin MAGA, or whether it won't.

If you think it won't, then it is just another mountain for the good guys to climb and Trump is the best guide we have had climbing mountains in a long long time.

If you think it will end MAGA, and then you accept that this was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to reverse the slide of history, then there was no higher priority than not losing the House.

Maybe that was not expected in November 2016, but we predicted it would be the day Sessions recused and then we repeated it a few days later when Mueller was appointed. Every action by the Dems since then has reinforced the importance to those in the second group.

[maryrose]

Cut out the last part.
None of the perps will be prosecuted and impeachment proceedings will commence irregardless of what Mueller report concludes.

[jimmyk]

"irregardless"? For shame, maryrose. :)

If the Dems want to make fools of themselves with impeachment, I'll get the popcorn going.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

That waldner character is a piece of work isn't he. Yes it's a Turkish play with a Qatari umbrella, likely this Friedlander group helmed by has an bin ali

[maryrose]

To be fair if Dems win the House I don’t think it will end MAGA.
We still have Donald Trump as our President.
I see impeachment as an additional two year Mueller investigation.
He still got things done while that illegal kerfuffle was ongoing.
Will any Dem bill pass the Senate- No because we will have more than enough votes to stop it.
Will DRMs keep trying dirty tricks and try to get the Courtsto do their bidding?
Of course.
But ultimately I see President Trump winning re-election in 2020.
Primarily because the Drms really have no good candidate and no agenda.

[JohnS]

A lot can still happen before the midterms. I am looking to the third quarter GDP announcement coming on Oct 26. If it is 4% or better, the argument for re-electing the R house will be strong. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for the third quarter has been declining for the last few weeks; the forecast is now slightly below 4%. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a good number.

[Old Lurker]

Jimmy, yes 2026 is a long way down the road. But for one example, a very large share of the inheritance tax strategies made possible by the Trump bill will be enormously expensive to unwind if becomes possible-or likely-or actual that the old rules will return in 2026.

And yes of course, Trump can rule by EO just as Obama did. But with the same long term impermanence and without the willing implementation by the Deep State. Heck, much of the deep state is still in cubicles all over town; if they thought their old bosses would be back soon, they will act like pigs in trash.

[jimmyk]

OL, everything you say is true, but I always just think about where we'd be if Tub Dive had won the election, and the present just seems wonderful. It's like people who survive a near death experience--it just changes your whole outlook.

[pagar, a bacon, ham and sausage supporter]

Now you know!

"Beto O'Rourke's Mother, Who He Says Is A 'Lifelong Republican,' Donated To Obama, Voted In 15 Of 17 Democratic Primaries"

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Oh gosh that's disappointing:

https://mobile.twitter.com/NorahODonnell/status/1052541156972785664

Yes I'll leave mullah fan girl robin Wright's commentary for another time.

[Man Tran]

daddy,

Re your plead for screen capture yesterday, you were prolly at FL350 a few yrs ago when JMH taught us the wonderful shortcut of shift-cmd-4 to enable a cursor that you can drag across the area you want to save. I have used that thousands of times since. Recently, I ran across its companion shift-cmd-3 that grabs the entire screen like you can do on an iPad or iPhone.

[JohnH]

In the last 21 midterm elections the incumbent President’s party has lost seats in the house 19 times with 7 of those times resulting in the house flipping. As designed, the house represents local politics and (in my opinion) there is a great element of “what have you done for me lately” that rears it’s head two years into a presidential term.

I believe that the house doesn’t flip due to a combined three reasons: the blue wave is a figment of poor/biased polling; the Repubs have delivered locally via the economy; and unprecedented stumping by the President.

While it is possible it may flip I will not blame President Trump. I lurk at the pleasure of the President!

[Tom R]

Thanks for that reply, OL. But, as we've seen, no amount of truth has ever changed the mind of a lefty. Ask them what they think about Trayvon Martin, the UVA rape story, or if Kavanaugh is a rapist? They're impermeable to facts and reason.

If a Rep member of the house can't win election in three weeks with this economy, then it's entirely their fault. 100%. A president has never been held responsible for holding either chamber, and I find repugnant the suggestion that a loss to be Trump's fault.

Well said.

At this point how many undecided swing voters are there actually out there? Hopefully GOP pollsters have a good idea how many and who they are.

At this point Trump could declassify everything and prove beyond a shadow of a doubt how criminally corrupt the Obama administration was and it would likely make little to no difference anymore on the midterms thanks to how the Kavanaugh hearings turned out. If the behavior of the unhinged lefties during the Kavanaugh hearings didn't influence undecided swing voters to support Trump and the GOP then nothing will at this point.

Midterms are all about voter turnout and both Trump supporters and the unhinged Communists/Progressive lefties are highly motivated to vote. The thing is the unhinged Progressives lefties hated Clinton. They were largely Bernie supporters. It's hard to gauge exactly how many unhinged lefties there are since you can't base your estimate on Hillary's 2016 popular vote totals.

If the Democrats regain control of the House then I will be genuinely shocked because there is no rational reason for swing voters to choose them over the MAGA agenda.

[Tom R]

And if Mueller's report is not coming out till after the election, I'm assuming it's good for Trump.

100% agree

[maryrose]

Will the illegal disclosure of financial information of Manafort impact his ultimate deal?
Is he still in solitary?
I think his sentence should be cut in half or time served for cruel and unusual punishment.

[Sue]

Voted In 15 Of 17 Democratic Primaries"

In Texas, that doesn't mean you aren't a Republican. Donating to Obama does, but I voted in a lot of democrat primaries because all of our local officials, i.e., sheriff, county clerk, judges, ran as democrats until about 2008, or so. They have mostly all changed political parties now and identify as republicans. But, prior to that, rural Texas was mostly democrats. My US rep, Jim Chapman, was the last democrat from my district, in 1997.

Anyway, he's (Beto) maybe telling the truth and maybe lying, like he always does.

[henry]

in the water is wet department:

The Hill @thehill

Comey donates maximum amount to Dem candidate in Virginia House race hill.cm/DrWOv7a

[Appalled]

Let me emerge from lurk mode to challenge Gentle Ben's comment on early voting in Fulton County.

Fulton County is a Democratic Preserve, and the Library system is a subsidiary of that preserve. In addition, John's Creek -- the area being held up as an example of skulduggery, is a very white portion of a majority black county.

I have no use for Brian Kemp -- who should not be Secretary of State, let alone governor. And there is plenty to criticize about Georgia's vote. But this is a bum rap.

[maryrose]

I make no assumption wrt the biased Mueller investigation or its ultimate report.
It was initiated illegally, never had a definitive stated purpose or crime to investigate and it was partisan because all Democrats were on the task force.
Never was obstruction part of the mandated reason it was cooped because no collusion was found.
It will be a document to offer excuses or benefit to the Dems not to exonerate President Trump,
Unless the illegal activity of Rosenstein with the FISA warrants and Comey lies serving as a catalyst to begin it are addressed I feel it is at best a paper to justify its enormous expense and a slap on the wrist to some vague Russian groups.

[maryrose]

Cooped should be co- opted

[Old Lurker]

Jimmy "but I always just think about where we'd be if Tub Dive had won the election, and the present just seems wonderful. It's like people who survive a near death experience--it just changes your whole outlook."

I fully appreciate that and some days I feel exactly that way.

Other days I feel like a man adrift on a raft in the South Pacific, almost at the end because of lack of water. Then poof, like magic somebody places five cases of Desanti Spring Water on my raft and my world changes for the better.

Then I look around and see that I am still drifting in the South Pacific.

[henry]

The Dems are for women...

Vicki McKenna @VickiMcKenna
2m

WI Democratic Lt. Gov candidate hosted "lingerie party" in 2009, now claims he can't remember.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/business/article220158820.html

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

This isn't astroturf why do you ask?

https://www.frontpagemag.com/point/271637/media-claims-facts-about-khashoggis-terror-ties-daniel-greenfield

[maryrose]

TomR:
Disagree that release of documents would have no effect on voters.
May discourage turnout or move some to vote Republican so that justice will be done.

[Extraneus]

Once his tax returns and all the other slime gets created and implanted in the body politic, the meme will be that we must not allow a person who might well be kicked out of office or even sent to jail to make the pivotal, historic change in the Supreme Court that replacing X will mean.

Says who, Maxine Waters? Do you think McConnell and Grassley will be saying that?

Trump will pick SCOTUS nominees from the list he published before the 2016 election, and McConnell and Grassley are etching their names into the history books for generations with the judges they're confirming.

If the House goes to the Dems, nothing they pass will see the light of day, but, more importantly, they will be unable to control their impulses, and their over-reaching will give Trump and Republicans a huge landslide in 2020.

#MAGA.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Otoh he didn't attend bin Laden's alma mater of al thaghor,that was in a while other city.

[JM Hanes]

Old Lurker:

"My point, though some of you, OK many of you, are unwilling to see it, is that the whole ball game is in the House this time. Nothing good will get to the Senate from a Dem House so those guys, however many there might be, might as well go on vacation. And that includes, unless the numbers and makeup change a lot so that the fence sitters are disempowered, any new SCOTUS nominations."

I think almost everybody would concede that losing the House will be disastrous, as far as cementing conservative changes in law. The question under discussion was whether Trump should be held responsible for that outcome. Insofar as Trump has nationalized the House election, and he has certainly been trying to do so, one would have to say that neutralizing not just the "historic" off year Dem advantage, but the long expected blue wave, is pretty remarkable.

As for your "what if" scenario, I'm not convinced that your vision of frog marching malefactors and a massive public re-education campaign would necessarily have worked to Republicans' favor in this timeframe. If Trump had done that and we had lost, would you still hold him responsible? Frankly, I think most folks already understand what "drain the swamp" means. As we've discovered, a lot of them just don't want to do it or just don't care.

Ultimately, I do believe the way you discourage such law breaking is to put people in jail for it, but I think you wildly underestimate the amount of time and resources needed to actually collect sufficient evidence to put people away, when you're dealing with a conspiratorial web of such gargantuan proportions and complexity. Even if Sessions were singlemindedly focused on doing so, that cake would still be far from baked. And of course, you don't get there by putting the little fish in jail first -- or by signaling your moves.

Where we really fundamentally differ, however, it's that I don't believe even losing the House this time around spells the end times. Disastrous, perhaps, but catastrophic? I don't think so. The Dems will spin their wheels on impeachments and investigations that go nowhere for two years. I've often thought that Republicans are far more disciplined and effective when they are in the minority, and it's not like they spent the last two years pumping out reforms. I'm not sure why you seem to think that losing the House somehow jeopardizes SCOTUS nominations -- especially if we manage to add a Senator or two to our majority. Even Collins and Murkowski could surely justify voting for a likely female nominee, so that key component of the conservative agenda will not be endangered.

The fact that it's the Senate which also approves presidential appointments generally will not change. The biggest deepest swamp that needs draining is the bureaucracy, and the President doesn't actually need the House for that. The bureaucratic underworld has been decades in the making, and its denizens will mount a vicious, all-out fight for survival against any attempt at reform, so It wouldn't surprise me if it took two years just to sort out the players and figure out the pressure points, especially for someone new to the federal establishment. Losing the House will make the process harder, but hardly impossible.

This election is an inning, not the whole ballgame. If we lose the House, the Senate, and the Presidency in 2020, then I might be persuaded to join you on the Ledge. But if you didn't expect this to be a long war, with a lot of setbacks, that is not Trump's fault.