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October 21, 2018

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Beasts of England

Depends on who makes the cut, OL... 😂

Old Lurker

I see the rocket scientist in you did the math just fine, Beasts!

Beasts of England

I'm not sure how we're defining 'survive without the House'. Will he be removed from office? Doubtful. Will he be impeached? Likely. Can he still lock and load on great judges? Yes! But everything else will be a clusterfudge...

Jim Eagle

In a sadistic sort of way, I would like to see how Trump handles a Dem house, with a big Senate. Will he just let them take all the rope they need or will he be a PITA. Will he handle them like he does the media and make them a laugh riot among his base, or will he try to make peace with Nancy, and work something out?

He's always been a negotiator but also a no-nonsense kid from Queens. I guess for most it will be how the Dem House deals with Trump. But as long as he has Mitch (will he if he loses the house?), he can toy with her since she is about ready to apply to the asylum.

If he loses the House, he can recycle the MAGA hats in 2020.

JM Hanes

Old Lurker:

"That there has been no action, it then follows that he thinks he can survive without the House."

I'm not following that reasoning at all.

henry

this is the good option:

David Hines @hradzka
2h

A 3rd option: quietly arrest and prosecute the US-based members of organizations involved for conspiracy to violate immigration law, and use the full weight of the US government to tear apart their funding structure.

I am curious to see if the Trump admin will choose door no. 3.

Old Lurker

Not sure about the judges, Beasts.

The two related variables are how close the Senate is and then how much mud is flying as the impeachment dance drones on. If he were under "apparent" real impeachment last month, especially with the press predicting not just impeachment but then jail, the Collins-Flake jump would not have been possible for Kavanaugh. And Kavanaugh on paper did not even change the balance much on the court. Replacing RBG will be seen as the biggest potential change in multiple lifetimes and only a strong GOP Senate will have the balls to go there.

Lesser judges will be easier but not slam dunk.

Beasts of England

Thanks, OL!! :)

henry

When you've lost Bernie...

Free Beacon @FreeBeacon
8m

Bernie Sanders: I Don’t Think There Will Be a ‘Great Blue Wave’

henry

video of migrant horde getting on trucks at link:

Jack Murphy
@RealJack

Who’s paying for the migrant caravan to be aided by trucks? 🤔🤔🤔

https://twitter.com/RealJack/status/1054409275886395392

Miss Marple

New thread.

Old Lurker should listen to that Periscope I posted.

Threadkiller

New thread

Beasts of England

We disagree on that, OL, because I think he'll be working with 55+ in the Senate. But, it's almost beer:30 and time to weigh anchor, so I'll let you win this one... lol

Extraneus

Dan Hannan: Falling IQ scores may explain why politics has turned so nasty

The fall in IQ scores in the West is perhaps the most under-reported story of our era. For most of the twentieth century, IQ rose by around three points per decade globally, probably because of better nutrition. But that trend has recently gone into reverse in developed countries.

You hadn’t heard? I’m not surprised. Journalists and politicians won’t go near the subject and you can see why. Consider the theories offered by neuroscientists for the decline. Some argued it had to do with the rising age of motherhood, because the children of older mothers tend to have lower IQs, other things being equal. No one likes to say this, because it can come across as “older moms have dumb kids,” which is not true. (My wife and I were 44 when our youngest child was born, and my own parents were also elderly, but that didn’t make me too thick to grasp the concept of statistical distributions.)

Other theories were even more explosive. For example, that unintelligent people were having more kids, or that the fall in average scores reflected immigration from places with lower IQs.

But a new study from Norway, which examines IQ scores from 730,000 men (standardized tests are part of military service there) disproves all these ideas, because it shows IQ dropping within the same families. Men born in 1991 score, on average, five points lower than men born in 1975. There must, in other words, be an environmental explanation, and the chronology throws up a clear suspect: the rise in screen-time.

Kids brought up with Facebook and Instagram are more politically bigoted, not because they don’t hear alternative opinions, but because they don’t learn the concentration necessary to listen to opponents — a difficult and unnatural skill.

To put it another way, today’s American elections are mild compared to those of, say, 1800 or 1860. The relative tolerance that characterized the twentieth-century reflected rising education and rising intelligence, which made voters more capable of empathy with opponents. Reverse that rise and people will revert to the more primitive but easier rule-of-thumb: my tribe good, your tribe bad.

henry

Ext, global school standards.

Old Lurker

JMH, my position hinges on my belief that if he had wanted movement on this front, there would have been movement on this front. Therefore he must not have wanted movement.

The logic tree then flows from there as I outlined above.

Footnote. The possibility we never ever consider is that there really is no there-there on what we here think are obvious crimes. Or else, while there are obvious crimes, having our leaders have the option to commit those again in the future when that benefits our rulers is just too exciting for them to give up.

Old Lurker

Beasts "We disagree on that, OL, because I think he'll be working with 55+ in the Senate."

And right there is where my smile returns. I cannot get my head around a midterm which increases the incumbent's hold on the Senate but takes control of the House away from him. That never happens. Why in the world would it happen now with all the real pocketbook issues all going for Trump?

That is my hope, right there.

Old Lurker

Henry/Ext "global school standards."

is that another trick phrase like "intelligence community"?

DrJ

retirement communities

OT, but why are these attractive? One can hire the mow-and-blow guys, and I like the kids playing in the street. Is there something I'm missing?

maryrose

I agree with OL and my hope is also riding on the Senate votes carrying the House with them.
Jan Brewer on Cavuto talking about the caravan and trucks and getting here before Election Day.

Clarice Feldman

Yes, I misspoke about spending down assets--I meant Maedicaid. Gap insurance is relatively inexpensive and she should get it--an independent insurance agent can help you find the best one for her needs. And damn right--get a POA now.

maryrose

DrJ:
Retirement communities were not an option in my case.

maryrose

Now Cavuto has some Lib on talking about Lady Liberty and I had to turn it off.
The question posed was “ What is our responsibility once they arrive here.
In my head I am saying “ We have no responsibility for these illegal people”

JM Hanes

OL:
I'm not arguing the point (at least not yet), I'm really trying to follow your logic. The way I'm reading your argument is that:

If Trump decided not to go the Law & Order route before the midterms..
Then he's decided he can survive without the House.

There's an unspoken assumption somewhere in your logic tree.

Old Lurker

Don't think so, JMH. Back to my decision tree on gold faucets.

I said explicitly that he had to either conclude that Law & Order would not help in the election, or that it didn't matter how the election went. If he thinks it imperative that he win the election, and if moving on Law & Order would help at all, then not moving was either not worth the cost, or winning was not imperative.

Old Lurker

DrJ "Is there something I'm missing?"

You know of course that there is a lot more to maintaining a house than mowing the lawn.

DrJ

Early WJOM:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mACc5Z4Jquo&t=2420s

Chopin waltzes, Ott. To these Rubinstein-addled ears, these are worth listening to.

DrJ

OL,

And the retirement communities do what about that?

I suppose it helps that MrsJ is a very good general contractor.

boris

"he knew that making real progress on the Rule of Law would always help him and MAGA, the marginal return in this timeframe was not worth the marginal cost to other things he is doing"

Then again maybe he "believed" the opposite.

Bringing down the Law Hammer over political "differences of opinion" has not ever worked against dimorats. Possibly because dimorats have put in the long term effort to subvert government institutions while GOPe and chamber of commerce couldn't be bothered.

To the extend dimorats are covered by allies in the deepstate they also know where the bodies are buried, the closets with skeletons, and stacks of "Get Out Of Jail Free" cards are hidden.

Dimorats would probably have loved to get Trump into the lawfare briarpatch before midterms.

Extraneus

Did he beg the question, JM?

NEW THREAD

Old Lurker


DrJ: "And the retirement communities do what about that?"

Depends on the options they offer and whether you buy them or not.

My mother, when she lived in one on Hilton Head selected the option that included pretty much complete interior and exterior care and maintenance, including maid service on the schedule she wanted. She had options for how much she would cook for herself, and which and how many meals she would take in the common dining room.

Hers then, and many now, also include options for upgrading the level of health care needed, first in the apartment/unit she bought, or later in the more managed facility in the complex.

Her complaint at the time was that she should have sold her house and moved in with all her friends several years sooner.

Etc, etc.

Clarice Feldman

To ask this question is to answer it:https://pjmedia.com/homeland-security/why-would-the-washington-post-hire-someone-like-jamal-khashoggi/

DrJ

OL,

So she or you were able to pay for concierge services. I see no advantage to staying in a neighborhood one knows and contracting directly.

DrJ

to *not* staying...

Porchlight

My grandmother loved her retirement home.

She also liked the shuttle to the grocery stores.

I guess it all depends on what stage of life you are in, and what you're looking for. She had been widowed for 25 years by the time she moved into a retirement home, and was finding life on her own quite lonely after my aunt moved away. She had a blast playing cards with her friends at the home until her eyesight failed.

JM Hanes

OL:

OK, I see the problem is a false choice; "he had to either conclude that Law & Order would not help in the election, or that it didn't matter how the election went."

He could also have concluded that while Law & Order might help, hosting on-site rallies would be more effective at getting out the necessary vote. Indeed, he could also have decided that the Law & Order issue isn't ripe yet, or that he could more effectively pursue the malefactors once the Republican hold on the house was secured, rather than give the game away and then end up with a Democratic House (i.e.even if he thinks the Law & Order issue would help, it might not be enough on its own). I can see plenty of variations beyond the choice of only two you offer up.

Clarice Feldman

https://pjmedia.com/michaelwalsh/trumps-merkel-moment-and-ours/

DrJ

I guess it all depends on what stage of life you are in, and what you're looking for.

I suppose that is so.

I have written and deleted many replies to this -- deleted because they were about the particulars of our neighborhood, and that isn't the point.

Like many or most, we have kids to great grandmothers, healthy to infirm, rich and not so, native and immigrants, and so forth. We look after each other.

Why would I want a retirement community?

jimmyk on iPhone

“Why would I want a retirement community?”

It’s a lifestyle choice. My mother, who’s 91, wouldn’t get caught dead in one, so to speak. My father loved it. I use the past tense because now he’s not at all active. He has 24/7 aides, But he’s still there and is content.

The reason assisted living is pointless for him is that it costs more than the retirement community, but the assistance is inadequate for his needs. It just means there’s someone down the hall to get him after he falls. So it’s worst of both worlds.

Clarice Feldman

When my mother was 94 1/2 it became obvious that she could no longer live alone in So Fla and had to be moved to somewhere we could keep an eye on her care and assist her. It was a struggle but she grew to like the senior residence in which she lives which is a very nice place in nearby Rockville, Md.She has a lovely apt, they provide breakfast, dinner, mucho activities (which he deigned to participate in for the most part), transportation to events and shopping, a therapy center, a 24/7 clinic, a beauty parlor, a fitness center and and in house carer arrangement you can contract on an hourly basis, among other things. She's 99 now and grows more infirm and needs 24/7 care which is exceedingly costly--rather than the few hours of extra care she once needed. When she runs out of her assets (the last years are coming to about $100k per year, not counting the almost $10K we have been spending for her incidentals , she will have to move to a nearby nursing facility and I am certain if and when that happens she will be as resistant and anxious about the first move which nearly killed me.. But I know that facility is very adequate for her needs and pleasant.

When people go thru hoops in an effort to prolong their lives for years, they don't often think of what those last years will be like.
If you are under 50 and it's still available buy long term care insurance (we did and are very glad we did).

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