Place Your Bets!

As of Sunday evening, what do the betting markets say about the upcoming election?

At PredictIt, the Democrats have (roughly) a 65% chance of gaining control of the House. The Republicans have roughly a 35% chance. Do note: The PredicitIt probabilities shown below do not sum to 100% due to their fee structure: winners pay back ten percent of their net gain.

At the Iowa Electronic Market the wave is Bluer: Democrats have a 80% chance of claiming the House.

A USA Today article provides an outlier. For those who are not familiar with money-line betting, the favorite is always presented as the minus number; the underdog is the plus.

So if you see that tonight in the World Series the Dodgers at home with Kershaw starting are -125 against the Red Sox behind Price at +110, it means the Dodgers are favored to win. 

Per USA Today:

The odds on MyBookie favor Republicans maintaining hold of their majority, even as political forecaster Nate Silver says there is an 84.9 percent chance of a Democratic victory. 

As of Sunday, the odds of the GOP keeping the House are at -140. That means you would need to bet $140 on the Republicans to win $100 if they stay in the majority. The Democrats are at +110, meaning a $100 bet would win you $110 if the Democrats manage to wrest control of the House. 

If we split the difference at 125, then the Republicans have a (125/225) chance of holding the House, or 56%. The Democrats odds of taking the House are 100/225 or 44%.

Something is fishy there, I would say. Let's look overseas for help: at Ladbrokes in the UK, the Democrats are 8/15 favorites to take the House. That works out to a percentage of 15/(8+15), or 65%. 

Republicans are 6/4, which is a 40% chance (4/(4+6).

So Ladbrokes and PredictIt are pretty close; Iowa is in Nate Silver country,and the USA Today site just seems goofy.

A NOTE ON THE IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET SENATE CONTROL MARKET: The IEM Senate rules lead to an awkward place - they count Democrats and Republicans based on the declared party affiliation, not the practical one. Bernie Sanders is an Independent who declined the Dem Party nomination in Vermont. So if the final tally is 49 Republicans, 50 Democrats, and Bernie the winning ticket for Senate control is "Other", not "Democrats". 50 Republicans plus Pence pays off for "Republicans".

The IEM odds do reflect that - on the Senate side "other" is more likely than an outright Dem win. And yes, I recall that a few years back there were two independents caucusing with the Dems; I welcome a memory jog if someone cares to look it up and remind me.

 

 

 

 

 

Comments

[rich]

i suppose i am having a difficult time believing that the Reps could gain seats in the Senate but lose at a minimum 18 seats for the dems to gain control of the house ...

[rich]

and thanks for the clean up efforts TM.

[sbw]

I’ve advised the newsroom not to run any polls between now and the election.

[rich]

one of the best things about 2016 was watching the Hillary meter losing pressure all through the evening.

[rich]

Posted by: sbw | October 28, 2018 at 10:09 PM

seems sensible.

and damn those sox bats ...

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Doesn't she look like she will turn someone into a newt:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ArthurSchwartz/status/1056573990851039233

[Clarice Feldman]

I think the R's will keep the House actually.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

If ann Comstock is no longer in eminent danger then one wonders about the rest of it.

[boatbuilder]

Does anyone have a link to JMH's Breughel pics?

[boatbuilder]

Hard to believe Roberts just got his bullpen up. This is an elimination game. He should be throwing ballast overboard and pumping out the fresh water at this point.

[boatbuilder]

Also that Cora had Price hit instead of having Moreland hit. Chance to lock it down. But he's hit all the right buttons so far. Who am I to question?

[Dave (in MA)]

Ken Laird@KenLairdWEEI
Well, Dave Roberts will always have the 
steal in '04

[boatbuilder]

OK. Alex Cora is way smarter than I am.

[Clarice Feldman]

bb:https://insidebruegel.net/#p/v=udroom&lan=en&i=tutorial&a=1025

[Buckeye]

I think the R's will keep the House actually.

If so, anybody want to predict Dem insanity between now and 2020?

[JMHanes]

Too busy doing my little Boston Happy Dance to bet on the election just yet. Want to enjoy it while I can!

[rich]

bb

Posted by: JMHanes | October 28, 2018 at 01:07 AM

[Buckeye]

For the Porsche fans

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/multimedia/Porsche-Rennsport-Reunion-Monterey-Cars-Laguna-Seca-Historic-Racing-Photos-494908661.html

[rich]

we could have another 10 innings of baseball!

doubtful but we could.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

I guess I hadn't appreciated brueghel as much in the art history survey course I took in high school and college, I wrote a paper on Raphael's school of athens.

[rich]

red soxs-> too much winning. tiring.

[Dave (in MA)]

Aw, snap

Gerry Callahan@GerryCallahan
My World Series MVP ballot with six outs to go:
1. Pearce.
2. Price.
3. Roberts.

[Texas Liberty Gal]

George P is ready for a fight

Sebastian Gorka DrG Retweeted
George Papadopoulos
George Papadopoulos
@GeorgePapa19
·
4h
While I cannot disclose the information publicly, it’s a fact that both me and congress know who the SPY within the campaign was. Congress will likely include it in a report later on. Eyes were everywhere during 2016.

[JMHanes]

boatbuilder:

If this doesn't take you directly to my Bruegel post with the links, it went up Oct. 28 at 1:07 AM, in the "Another Mass Shooting" shooting thread.

[boatbuilder]

Thanks for the Breughel link. Bookmarked it. Amazing. But I'm focused on my Sawks right now.

[rich]

>>>If ann Comstock is no longer in eminent danger then one wonders about the rest of it.

Posted by: Bernardi Dr la paz | October 28, 2018 at 10:17 PM<<<

did you mean barbara comstock? pretty sure she's losing VA-10 ... too much dem money and loudoun cty has radically changed in the last few years.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Seems like the Sox are kicking the Dodgers right out of the atadium.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Well there was a town hall column that suggested otherwise,

[rich]

still an inning to go.

[rich]

Posted by: Bernardi Dr la paz | October 28, 2018 at 10:58 PM

muh. Comstock released a friendly poll the other day and she is Conservative Inc. or more generally, if the Dems can't drag across Progressive Inc Wexton in a district that Clinton won by 10 points the champagne needs to be up back in the cellar.

[Dave (in MA)]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1056742096340582400

[rich]

the curse of the bambino could come back ... it would be an epic collapse!

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Yes she turned very blanc mange down in my old haunts it looks like Maria elvira will be holding a district red queen won by 20 points

[boatbuilder]

Love this--from Ace: http://ace.mu.nu/archives/100-favorite-photos-last-week-20160911-186.jpg

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

I think the death star has cleared the planet

[rich]

ha that's a good one.

[rich]

Sale in for the close.

fire up the coffee maker.

[rich]

Sale in for the close.

fire up the coffee maker.

[Dave (in MA)]

Manny Machoke

[Jane#walkaway]

One out left

[Jane#walkaway]

WIN1

[JimNorCal]

Anyone see this before?

OK, just kidding. Lots of discussion earlier in the day ....
Transient error, at least so it seems.

[Dave (in MA)]

Gas up the duck boats

[daddy]

I am not overjoyed to see the Red Sox win but I am very happy to see the Dodgers lose:)

Great job, Beantown.

[rich]

JimNorCal

think we are getting them because of the the clean up ... might have to use some heavy handed methods for it.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Is there a particular reason why we hate the dodgers.

[Dave Seville]

Breugel schmeugel.
Relinking a couple of stories from NR on my favorite painter;
The Smart-Aleck Tintoretto Gets His Due
and
Tintoretto in Venice: See His Paintings, Then Take a Walk

[rich]

Congratulations to the Red Sox and their fans.

great season.

[Dave Seville]

Because they're the freakin Dodgers.
Do we need another reason?

[rich]

baseball grudges last a long time narc.

[boatbuilder]

WHOOOOHOOOO!!!!

[Dave (in MA)]

One reason is they employ the Ndamukong Suh of baseball at shortstop.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Well as long as there is a good reason, it's like my anti Goodell animus.

[daddy]

I think the R's will keep the House actually.

Me too.

[Dave (in MA)]

The "Yankees Suck" chant breaks out.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Speaking of stabbing franchises with a long steely knife, what they are doing to dr who should send one into an airlock.

[Dave Seville]

Before baseball is out of everyone's system let's relive Jose Conseco turning an out or maybe a double into a home run...with his head;

I tell ya, it NEVER gets old.

[Dave (in MA)]

One of my favorite baseball clips, DS

[Clarice Feldman]

G'night!

[jimmyk]

Congrats, Dave, Rocco, boatbuilder, jane, and all the other Sox fans.

Yes, Machado is a punk who deserved to lose. On the other hand, the Red Sox need to show Curt Shilling some respect. And they just about lost me having James Taylor doing "You've Got a Friend" the National Anthem for the opening game.

[jim nj]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/here-are-the-reasons-chinas-equity-rout-is-getting-even-worse/ar-BBOUWv3?li=BBnbfcN

Large amounts of stock pledged as collateral for loans. Shadow lending is going down as the government is still trying to shrink that sector.

The Chinese FED equivalent lowered the amount of reserves the banks have to keep which frees up funds for loans, but I sense the banks aren't making that money available for lending.

From what I've been reading it sounds like liquidity is tightening.

I would suspect that the smaller companies there are having a harder time financing their firms.

[jimmyk]

And it seems there was a passenger plane crash into the sea off Indonesia, Lion Air, 188 on board. :(

[jim nj]

Yeah, I just got a 520 error message. Just re-loaded the page and it was fine. Must have been a transient thing.

[daddy]

From Ext's link at 06:48 on James Carville's comments:

"Kavanaugh is going to be an issue in 2018. He's going to be an issue in 2020. The Democrats are going to keep digging up stuff. The press is not going to stop all of the things that they're working on about Kavanaugh," he (Carville) said.

Rhetorical, but proves the point about Press Bias. Could you imagine this phrase ever coming out of Carville's mouth:

"The press is not going to stop all of the things that they're working on about _________."

Obama
Hillary
Susan Rice
Brennen
Clapper
Comey
Bob Menendez
Tom Perez
Imran Awan
Corey Booker
Wolfe
Strzok
Bruce and Nelly Ohr
Adam Schiff
etc...

Of course not.

[boatbuilder]

The JT national anthem was indeed a low point. The owners are liberal doofuses--hell, John Henry owns the Globe. But they are my team and I am very happy.

[JMHanes]

Loved the Tintorettos, Dave, especially "The Miracle of the Slave." Wow. I was really interested to discover that he came from a family of dyers, because his color palettes really are luscious. It's fun to rediscover painters now, so long after first seeing their works. There are a lot that I never paid much attention to, but I find my tastes have also changed somewhat over the years.

And, as daddy might way, Woot, Woot, Woot!

[daddy]

Just caught up to this from JimmyK:

Jack Murphy
‏ @RealJack

Obama tells Michigan Democratic voters to get out and vote early.

Michigan doesn’t have early voting.

LOLOL!

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

He's like a whole year of vizzinism

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/10/the-grift-that-keeps-on-giving.php

[Dave (in MA)]

116 days until Spring Training starts for the Sox.

[Captain Hate]

Is there a particular reason why we hate the dodgers.

In 1966, the Baltimore Orioles snookered the Reds into trading Frank Robinson for pitcher Milt Pappas, who used to be good but went right in the toilet. Frank Robby won the Triple Crown and was the only player to ever be the MVP of both leagues. He turned the Os, perpetual underachievers with good pitching, into a destruction machine. Even Father Hate and I, Washington Senators fans, were impressed with how they laid waste to the American League, usually jumping out to early leads by mashing the other teams pitching and just coasting the rest of the way.

They played the Dodgers in the World Series and all the experts were saying that with Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale the Dodgers would roll. Even in high school I said "fuck the experts; they don't know dick". The Os swept them.

The Dodgers have historically been good but get fluffed more than a lot of other teams.

[Dave (in MA)]

I had Koufax and Drysdale cards when I was in kindergarten. And some black & white Batman cards. They probably ended up as noisemakers clothespinned to my bike spokes.

[Captain Hate]

On the other hand, the Red Sox need to show Curt Shilling some respect.

Doris Kearns Goodwin tried vainly to get moist over that.

[Dave Seville]

--One of my favorite baseball clips, DS--

His genius, Dave, was to turn a great clip of a ball bouncing off his head into an epic one by turning around and looking for it after he launched it with his cranium.

[Dave Seville]

Tommy Lasorda did just the opposite to Jose's 88 A's.
I learned a great lesson listening to him puffing the A's up before the series, letting everyone know he wasn't sure the lowly Dodgers would even be able to hang with the mighty Bash Brothers and the A's gobbled it up.
Crafty old SOB.
Just another reason to hate the stinking Dodgers.

[Tom Maguire]

Congratulations to Red Sox Nation. That roster and front office are really clicking.

However, presumably the 100 year cycle starts up again. That means you sell us Mookie Betts in a few years, but it also means the Yankees have to wait until 2023 to resume our rightful place on top of the heap.

[Pinandpuller]

Not quite sure of the reference, but I believe Tree of Life is a Conservative synagogue. The Conservative movement is indeed a sort of compromise between the Orthodox and the Reform, and consequently is dwindling, at least from what I understand.

Posted by: jimmyk | October 28, 2018 at 08:18 PM

From what I was reading two gay guys were celebrating the bris for their twin sons, but I could be entirely wrong.

[Dave (in MA)]

I'm so old, I remember when all the Yanks' fans would laugh at the idea that there was a NY/BOS rivalry.

[JMHanes]

Dave:

Here's a high res version of Christ among the Doctors which, strangely, wouldn't open from clicking the National Review article, even the image has a NR URL. Gorgeous.

There are several alternative Wikimedia/Wikipedia hi-res images of the Miracle of the Slave, but the others look like they've had a bit of Photoshop brightening up, and in the resulting color shift, the colors lost their depth and subtle relationships.

Part of why I look for downloadable pix is to be able to control the zoom levels.

Do you have a favorite Tintoretto?

[rich]

Posted by: Bernardi Dr la paz | October 28, 2018 at 11:53 PM

lol.

[Captain Hate]

Canseco was a goof but he hit the hardest ball I ever saw hit in the old Cleveland Municipal Stadium. A neighbor of mine was an attorney for a local S&L and a title company used to give him a couple tickets a few times a year right by the corner of the home dugout. You had to pay constant attention to the action because foul balls would come screaming by us. Greg "The Flounder" Swindell was on the mound for the Tribe against the As and, for a welcome change, had everything working for him except for one mistake against Jose. He leaned into that sucker so hard the sound of the contact wasn't the usual sharp crack but more like a splat sound. I know this is highly unlikely but it seemed like it was still going up when it landed in the upper left field deck. If it had been more to center it may have landed in the bleachers which nobody ever did.

[Dave (in MA)]

Last guy before Sale to throw the first and last World Series pitch

[JMHanes]

"116 days until Spring Training starts for the Sox."

And 10 days till 2020 election season starts for Hillary.

[rich]

Posted by: JMHanes | October 29, 2018 at 12:24 AM

getting into the Halloween spirit I see ...

[jim nj]

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2018/10/28/400m-brexit-boost-macron-fumes-as-belgium-chooses-british-american-f-35s-over-euro-jets/

Macron, like Merkle, is losing support and influence.

I don't see what he's crying about. The F-35 outclasses both the planes he had on offer.

[JMHanes]

Bernardi started it, Rich, with the Powerline video!

I'm afraid I can't remember who posted the Mythology of the Dolphin video, which I tabbed awhile ago. It was great fun watching the dolphins watching themselves in the mirror, particularly the later sequences when they were really playing around. Strange to think that chromosome-wise were closer to dolphins than pigs.

[Dave Seville]

--Do you have a favorite Tintoretto?--

No. As an erstwhile artist myself I have always been most pleased with sketches that capture the essence of something. Finishing a sketch [or cartoon as they used to call them] with perfect lines to me ruins the beauty of it.
That's why I like Tintoretto; he often used bold almost reckless strokes which left many of his paintings seeming almost incomplete or unfinished but capturing the essence of what he was trying to convey better than had he been more precise or disciplined.

Anything that features large dark or negative blocks [like The Last Supper 1570] accentuates his amazing, effortless use of color [he even makes earth tones seem to glow somehow] and still demonstrates he could do the dramatic light thing with the best of them.

[jim nj]

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2018/10/27/exclusive-the-inside-story-behind-how-blexit-was-born/

[daddy]

Hoyden,

Just caught up to your 07:50. I will definitely miss the job when I retire. Other than the twice annual checkrides and the Flight Physicals, best job ever.

[Pinandpuller]

Keith Ellison or Jair Bolsonaro?

I never hit my ex-wife. But many times I wanted to shoot her.

[rich]

ha, JM ... just the image of hillary in her gollum phase ...

[Pinandpuller]

Here you go Mr Iggy

Why Michelangelo Didn't Paint the Last Supper

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9Aj7W3g1qo

[JimNorCal]

"I think the R's will keep the House actually."

Me too.
I freely affirm this opinion is based on no scientific data whatsoever :)

[rich]

Posted by: JimNorCal | October 29, 2018 at 01:00 AM

i was hoping for some sudden onset polling expertise ...

[Pinandpuller]

Police shot a black guy in Portland for no reason whatsoever. That was the narrative. He was just trying to break up a fight. Sure, he had a gun but he was helping his friend and the police gunned him down.

Oh wait, his drunk friend was carrying a gun and decided to fist fight a guy so the black guy held the gun for the friend who got his ass kicked right before the police showed up and the black guy had the gun in his hand when he was shot by police.

But whatever.

[JMHanes]

Dave:

I see what you mean about glowing in the dark, so to speak. His Annunciation also makes wonderfully creative use of darks/lights.

The Crucifixion is pretty spectacular piece of work too, in a completely different way.

I'm having such fun on an image search for Tintorettos! Thanks for pointing in that direction.

[JMHanes]

jim nj:

I checked out Blexit page and made a contribution. Sure hope she keeps on keepin' on. The country will be better off if she succeeds.

[Pinandpuller]

Reps retain House majority by 5-15 seats, increase Senate majority by 3-7 seats. Pickup another 5-10 House seats in 2020, another 1-4 Senate seats.

Redistricting in 2022 will likely not count non-citizens, which will take as few as five or as many as fifteen representatives away from California. This means Republicans will likely gain 10-25 more House seats in 2022, and will be unlikely to lose the Senate (though they may lose a few seats).

Reapportionment also impacts the electoral college- California, New York, Florida and other immigrant-heavy states losing electoral votes to states like Kentucky, Montana and Ohio means that the 2024 electoral college would favor Republicans.

Effectively the Democrats are looking at losing the next 4 elections as a real possibility.

[Pinandpuller]

Lithium Deposits?

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Heh going from the last thread, yes that salvator mundi was a terrible restoration, which made me doubt it was authentic in that case the Saudi prince bin barham who acquired it (whose brother is one of the dissident princes) bought a 450 million lemon.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Yes it's kind of an stop motion animation of the event, I guess I hadn't dwelled so much on tintoretto either.