Place Your Bets!

As of Sunday evening, what do the betting markets say about the upcoming election?

At PredictIt, the Democrats have (roughly) a 65% chance of gaining control of the House. The Republicans have roughly a 35% chance. Do note: The PredicitIt probabilities shown below do not sum to 100% due to their fee structure: winners pay back ten percent of their net gain.

At the Iowa Electronic Market the wave is Bluer: Democrats have a 80% chance of claiming the House.

A USA Today article provides an outlier. For those who are not familiar with money-line betting, the favorite is always presented as the minus number; the underdog is the plus.

So if you see that tonight in the World Series the Dodgers at home with Kershaw starting are -125 against the Red Sox behind Price at +110, it means the Dodgers are favored to win. 

Per USA Today:

The odds on MyBookie favor Republicans maintaining hold of their majority, even as political forecaster Nate Silver says there is an 84.9 percent chance of a Democratic victory. 

As of Sunday, the odds of the GOP keeping the House are at -140. That means you would need to bet $140 on the Republicans to win $100 if they stay in the majority. The Democrats are at +110, meaning a $100 bet would win you $110 if the Democrats manage to wrest control of the House. 

If we split the difference at 125, then the Republicans have a (125/225) chance of holding the House, or 56%. The Democrats odds of taking the House are 100/225 or 44%.

Something is fishy there, I would say. Let's look overseas for help: at Ladbrokes in the UK, the Democrats are 8/15 favorites to take the House. That works out to a percentage of 15/(8+15), or 65%. 

Republicans are 6/4, which is a 40% chance (4/(4+6).

So Ladbrokes and PredictIt are pretty close; Iowa is in Nate Silver country,and the USA Today site just seems goofy.

A NOTE ON THE IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET SENATE CONTROL MARKET: The IEM Senate rules lead to an awkward place - they count Democrats and Republicans based on the declared party affiliation, not the practical one. Bernie Sanders is an Independent who declined the Dem Party nomination in Vermont. So if the final tally is 49 Republicans, 50 Democrats, and Bernie the winning ticket for Senate control is "Other", not "Democrats". 50 Republicans plus Pence pays off for "Republicans".

The IEM odds do reflect that - on the Senate side "other" is more likely than an outright Dem win. And yes, I recall that a few years back there were two independents caucusing with the Dems; I welcome a memory jog if someone cares to look it up and remind me.

 

 

 

 

 

Comments

[daddy]

Watching Mark Levin's Weekend show which is excellent because his excellent guest is Newt Gingrich. Talking about the Dem's having moved into Saul Alinsky radicalism under Obama Newt says this:

Newt: ...I would say 60% of the Democratic Party today is a Radical Party. Kevin McCarthy had it exactly right today when he said "This is now a campaign between America and Socialism. It's not between Democrats and Republicans." And I think this is now the Socialist Party of the United States.

[Pinandpuller]

Around 7:24 p.m. Sunday night, contact was lost between the airport in Jakarta and Lion Air flight JT610. The Lion Air flight JT610 is a Boeing 737 passenger plane that had 188 people on board when radar contact was lost. The flight had just taken off from the Indonesian capital, Jakarta.

The flight lost contact with ground control just minutes after taking off from Jakarta and was last seen by radar crossing the sea. The flight wasn't just any Boeing 737, it was a brand new model, the Boeing 737 MAX 8. The flight took off around 6:20 local time Monday morning and was scheduled to arrive in Pangkal Pinang in one hour.

http://thegoldwater.com/news/40710-Lion-Air-Commercial-Jet-Crashes-Into-Sea-With-188-Aboard

[jim nj]

JMHanes,

When I was learning photography I used to get books published by photographers to study their styles. Must have seen hundreds of them, but I also studied paintings to learn about composition.

I still have a copy of the "History of Modern Art" by H.H. Arnason. The others I borrowed from libraries. Individual artists and giant tomes that covered periods of time.

It's funny, but my time in elementary school convinced me that I had no artistic talent. In hindsight, I had great design sense. I couldn't do freehand drawing, but give me a ruler, protractor, compass point and I could do geometric art or architectural drawing.

Back then I had so many images in my head I could usually tell who had created a photograph or painting. Sadly that skill has ebbed, but I realized later that all that artwork we did in elementary school was given by teachers that weren't artists.

[JMHanes]

Bernardi:

The tragedy is that I think the painting actually was a Leonardo, but that vibrant work has been turned into a lifeless Mrs. Modestini. She may be a restoration expert, but unfortunately, she's just not that great a painter, and I'm not sure the original Leonardo could survive another stripping.

[DrJ]

I request that people posting here return to their original names.

[narciso]

Fine, dr. J, I adopted it out of a fit of pique.

[JMHanes]

jim nj:

Unfortunately, a lot of artists aren't terribly good teachers either. I think you ultimately just luck out or don't luck out in that regard. It's funny about how facility in one aspect of art doesn't necessarily translate to others, isn't it? I'd say I definitely have an artistic side, but I totally suck at arranging flowers.

[DrJ]

Thank you narciso, though your writing style is very unique and cannot be copied, imitated, or duplicated.

[JMHanes]

Oh crikey, if I'd realized this thread had been Instalanched, I'd have tried not to stray so far off topic. Sorry, TM!

[DrJ]

JMH,

Maybe I was fortunate, but one of the best teachers I ever had was a photography prof at Michigan. Viewing life and so forth through a camera lens is not easy, and he did a wonderful job of getting his students to do so.

[Pinandpuller]

Most brief explanations of Kabbalah begin and end with the Tree of Life. The sephiroth are enumerated, their names given, a convenient illustration is provided, and some explanation is attempted. Almost nothing of value is communicated, and most people will come away mystified. The Tree of Life is most emphatically not a ladder of lights shining like a stained glass window in the sun - anyone trying to find this pretty picture in any of the early classics of Kabbalah will come away mystified.

http://www.digital-brilliance.com/themes/tol.php

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Almost all of us are, that's why the facehugger (whose hopefully been shoved out an airlock) is such a nuissance. It acts with no soul no sense of empathy, toward anyone and everyone.

The most interesting stories are the angles not being followed up, instead of the procrustiam narratives being offered up.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Well that's what makes these threads a canvas on which to imprivise. The horse race is boring though, even though the outcome is significant.

[narciso]

Whoops I drifted back into the sargasso sea.

[narciso]

Whoops I drifted back into the sargasso sea.

[jim nj]

I think back on elementary school and some of what RSE posts.

Wouldn't it be nice if the whole educational system could be set up to benefit each child instead of treating them like some kind of factory inputs.

Imagine a system that identified competencies, capacity for learning, and interests. Fast track kids with competencies so they don't get bored.

Find out what fascinates individual kids and expose them to things of wonderment.

You could train up kids with individualized, self-directed learning programs and mentors who understood them.

The slower learners would gain too from more intensive instruction on basic skills. Instead of being left behind trying to keep up with the fast-learners. They could be taught the basics, with more intervention, and master them.

Alas, the teacher unions would never be interested in such a system, since they would all have to be masters degreed in programs other than teaching.

This all goes back to a summer Math enrichment course I took. In 4 weeks of 8-3 teaching I learned what would have taken 4 years of regular instruction.

[narciso]

Whoops I drifted back into the sargasso sea.

[JMHanes]

DrJ:

I think people can be trained to be good teachers, but great teachers have a spark and an individuality that, itself, doesn't seem to be something which can be taught.

[daddy]

More Newt as a bellweather for Election Night:

Levin: Are there a couple of States, a couple of House races that we should keep our eye on to get a feel for what might be trending?

Newt: I think in the House if you look at Barbara Comstock in Northern Virginia and Dave Bratt down around Richmond, those 2 races are really important signals. If the Republicans keep both of them there is no possibility the Democrats get control of the House. If we lose both of them then it could be a really long night. They are really central as a weather vane of what is going to happen. I think in the Senate on the east side, Bob Hugin is running a great race in New Jersey. It's a long-shot race. If he's winning in New Jersey on Election Night, it'll be a really long night for the Democrats.

[JMHanes]

narciso:

You must have been caught in the same time warp I was with my 2:00 AM post. I finaly learned, though, that when the wheel spins after you've hit "post," then in all likelihood your comment has, in fact, been posted even though it looks like it hasn't. In that case I usually just copy the post and refresh the page. The comment is usually there, so I seldom have to try again.

[Pinandpuller]

It's funny about how facility in one aspect of art doesn't necessarily translate to others, isn't it? I'd say I definitely have an artistic side, but I totally suck at arranging flowers.

Posted by: JMHanes | October 29, 2018 at 01:51 AM

Flower arranging is an activity that samurai would do, supposedly to clear their minds.

More than simply putting flowers in a container, ikebana is a disciplined art form in which nature and humanity are brought together. Contrary to the idea of a particolored or multicolored arrangement of blossoms, ikebana often emphasizes other areas of the plant, such as its stems and leaves, and puts emphasis on shape, line, and form. Though ikebana is an expression of creativity, certain rules govern its form. The artist's intention behind each arrangement is shown through a piece's color combinations, natural shapes, graceful lines, and the implied meaning of the arrangement.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ikebana

[DrJ]

JMH,

Perhaps you are right. Then again, I have won many teaching awards in a former life (at Berkeley!), so I may not have an objective opinion on this.

[Pinandpuller]

You can say that again.

[JMHanes]

LOL via Instapundit:

Humvee in a Tree

"Everything went as planned except for the early release,” said the spokesman.

Well, OK, then!

[Pinandpuller]

Regular Car Reviews: 1986 Toyota 4Runner

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=28&v=FcfnCdnvjSw

[JMHanes]

Pin:

I think I'm not samurai material!

[jim nj]

I'm self-taught in so many areas, that I don't even want to list them.

But if you could direct kids into what gives them joy and fulfillment, they would succeed more quickly and even given them a chance to change fields of study if something else grabbed their interest.

And if I'm going to be honest I think I learned more from my parents than from school during my formative years.

JIB and GUS it's so much fun to listen to how much you care about your kids. I suspect, like me, that your kids have learned more from you and your wives, than they have learned anywhere else.

Concerned parents are the first, best mentors of children's lives. If they are lucky they'll find a few more in life. Someone who's just as concerned about them as you were.

[jim nj]

DrJ and JNHanes,

I had an outstanding Photography teacher who was willing to mentor me and got me my first job working for a newspaper. He taught me beyond that course I took and became a mentor and close friend.

And, yes, some teachers are just en fuego, they inspire students to learn what is being taught. Others, not so much. And nowadays with the testing regime we have, they judge schools on overall numbers, not on how well they teach each student.

In fact, IMHO, they encourage schools to put less focus on quick learners and more on slow learners.

[Pinandpuller]

Posted by: JMHanes | October 29, 2018 at 02:24 AM

They might cut the flowers with a katana.

[DrJ]

jim_nj,

what gives them [the kids] joy and fulfillment

I'm probably nattering away too much tonight, but I never sought to give my students joy or fulfillment. I sought to expand their world through the wisdom that has been learned over the ages. Often that is difficult, but it is very worthwhile.

It is like viewing the life or whatever through a camera lens. For me that is through partial differential equations, but tastes differ.

[Pinandpuller]

Interesting Bill number. I wonder if it's Constitutional:

Introduced in House (04/05/2017)
Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Anti-Semitism Act of 2017

This bill amends the State Department Basic Authorities Act of 1956 to provide that the Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Anti-Semitism shall have the rank of ambassador and be appointed by the President by and with the advice and consent of the Senate.

The Special Envoy shall: (1) be a person of recognized distinction in the field of combating anti-Semitism or religious freedom; (2) serve as the primary advisor to, and coordinate efforts across, the U.S. government relating to monitoring and combating anti-Semitism and anti-Semitic incitement in foreign countries; and (3) report directly to the Secretary of State.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/1911

[jim nj]

I think that retirees would make excellent teachers. Yes they are not steeped in educational training courses, but they know some subjects so well I don't think that would matter.

I mean what would it be like if the teacher didn't even need the book to teach. What if he or she could teach so effectively with the basics as a guide that they could bring everyone up to speed and then launch out with interesting stories that held the students rapt. You won't be tested on this, but imagine the importance of what I'm going to tell you now.

[rich]

Posted by: daddy | October 29, 2018 at 02:10 AM

Brat's running against a "former" CIA officer and Postal Inspector who is funded about 2-to-1 with all the Progressive Inc endorsement roster. that race is odd in that it typically leans GOP by about 15-20 points. Progressive Inc must really, really want to get rid of Brat.

[DrJ]

jim_nj,

You might be surprise at how many Universities use retired people to teach. It saves them a lot of money, and they get very good people by and large.

I can't speak to other education levels, since Universities are what I know.

[jim nj]

jim_nj,

what gives them [the kids] joy and fulfillment

I'm probably nattering away too much tonight, but I never sought to give my students joy or fulfillment. I sought to expand their world through the wisdom that has been learned over the ages. Often that is difficult, but it is very worthwhile.

It is like viewing the life or whatever through a camera lens. For me that is through partial differential equations, but tastes differ.

Posted by: DrJ | October 29, 2018 at 02:39 AM
------

DrJ, no you're not nattering, but you're describing my thoughts in just a different manner.

As I got older, that is exactly what I wanted, don't coddle me, just be highly competent. I'll find a way to keep up.

The joy and fulfillment comes from being challenged and surviving. I want to know that I've learned from someone who has challenged me to be my best.

Hubris, perhaps, but you would have known that I was was your best student, because I was competing with you. I relish being challenged. I'll meet your challenge, I'll beat your expectations.

I didn't go to college straight out of high school. I took night courses and picked up 34 credits in my twenties. I went back to college in my early thirties to finish my degree and I was a warrior. Got A's in everything, because anything less was unacceptable.

[jim nj]

DrJ,

That doesn't surprise me. Some of the best teachers I had in college were young adjuncts who had jobs in there fields of teaching. They didn't just teach the text, they brought in real world knowledge.

They had degrees in the field they were teaching and could give you real-life tales about how those fields could be corrupted.

My favorite was a statistics professor for two courses that told us that scientists sucked at statistics.

[hoyden]

From last thread, Buckeye, "If you are ham-[footed] Hoyden, I think just about anything can enter a spin after dropping a wing."

FIFY, Buckeye. Tom, my instructor, emphasized proper rudder control when pulling up into a stall. Keep the ball centered. Being a tail-dragger I have some familiarity with the role feet play while flying, and especially landing, the plane.

Recovering from a stall in an RV6 is as simple as neutralizing the stick; no need to push forward to regain flying speed. The goal is to minimize the altitude loss during recovery.

[jim nj]

Lots of anti-Gab stories on msm. Why am I not surprised? Because they won't censor anybody? That's positively un-American because this entity follows first amendment rights?

I don't use GAB, Twitter, or Facebook, but if Gab is to fail because of slanderous attacks. The others should go off-line too.

[DrJ]

scientists sucked at statistics.

That is true. I sure do.

Yesterday I think I posted a Horowitz performance of a Schumann piece I love. There are a lot of piano savants in this world -- I'm not one -- so here I post the same version by one I had never heard of. His performance is glorious.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zfe-UbT6G58

[jim nj]

DrJ,

scientists sucked at statistics.

That is true. I sure do.
-------
That's why every study released to to the public should be peer reviewed and Statistician reviewed. I mean how much would we be spared if a statistician said, "this is a poorly constructed study and these are the statistical problems involved."

Peer review isn't enough, they don't do statistics any better. We need professional statistics people to vet these articles.

Especially in the social sciences.

[DrJ]

That's why every study released to to the public should be peer reviewed and Statistician reviewed.

No. Just no. I've gone through this nonsense before, and it just is misguided. Simple descriptive statistics are good enough for most fundamental work.

[jim nj]

We need a UL labs equivalent of statisticians. People believe UL labs for safety because they are rigorous.

Create a statisticians lab. If an analysis doesn't support the study - don't publish it - or include a disclaimer.

Problem with stupid studies resolved.

[hoyden]

jim nj, I can believe the enemedia MFM Democrats and Democrat infested business want Gab shut down while blessing their supportive social media cesspits.

[hoyden]

"We need a UL labs equivalent of statisticians."

Let's get one for scientists while we're at it. Unfortunately neither will happen. Democrats absolutely only want truthy reporting that hides their nefarious activities.

[jim nj]

No. Just no. I've gone through this nonsense before, and it just is misguided. Simple descriptive statistics are good enough for most fundamental work.

Posted by: DrJ | October 29, 2018 at 03:58 AM
-----
I could accede to this point if "simple descriptive statistics" were used in "hard" sciences. You need to provide a "proof" that may not be self-evident. You need to show the underlying "proof" instead of just solving the equation.

I'm familiar with solving a math problem in my head and not showing the intermediate steps.

I would argue that those results should be "reproducible" which may not be difficult in your field.

But the "soft" sciences are where the problems seem to occur. Many of these studies are accepted, but not reproducible. Wouldn't it be easier to just not publish them in the first place?

Or if that is not your preference, how about we only look at the stupidest ideas? Could we at least dispose of the "stupid" studies with a Statistical analysis?

[jim nj]

Hoyden,

I agree on both points RE: Gab and My UL idea.

DrJ,

I'm still listening. I want to learn. I don't know if the heart of our disagreement is "hard" vs. "soft" sciences. My own opinion is that "hard" science is reproducible, or if not, it is discarded.

"Soft" science, even if the results can't be reproduced, seems to last forever.

[jim nj]

nytol

[Pinandpuller]

"We were just informed that this morning's tragedy was happening during a Briss[sic] for a set of twins adopted by a gay couple," the organization posted Saturday on Facebook. "Our hearts and prayers go out to all that were involved including the members of the Synagogue, law-enforcement and first responders."

https://www.advocate.com/crime/2018/10/28/synagogue-shooting-occurred-during-bris-gay-couples-twins

[Pinandpuller]

The ancient method of performing metzitzah—metzitzah b'peh, or oral suction—has become controversial. The process has the mohel place his mouth directly on the circumcision wound to draw blood away from the cut. The majority of Jewish circumcision ceremonies do not use metzitzah b'peh, but some Haredi Jews use it. It has been documented that the practice poses a serious risk of spreading herpes to the infant. Proponents maintain that there is no conclusive evidence that links herpes to Metzitza, and that attempts to limit this practice infringe on religious freedom.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brit_milah

[anonamom]

Jim nj--your ideal describes my kids' experience in Montessori elementary school (which are VERY dependent on who the actual teachers/administrators/parents are, so buyer beware.)

The neuroscience of learning I was reading around 28 years ago when it was time to chose a "real" school supported homeschooling as the best way for any individual to learn, but that wasn't about to happen at this home.
I was extremely fortunate to be able to chose what I saw as the next best thing.

What was fascinating to me was that over time I came to see that the parents whose children were there made that choice either to keep their very bright child engaged, or to have their "learning disabled' be in an optimal environment.
Interestingly, both flourished. Even more interestingly, you couldn't tell who was which after spending an occasional morning in the classroom. And as we all know, dyslexic (and all these fancier, more specific diagnoses) does not mean intellectually impaired---these kids all learned from each other, and expanded each others' lives.

When he had to move on to traditional school as a seventh grader, my youngest referred to it as "child prison."

He still does.

[Miss Marple]

Annika H Rothstein
‏Verified account @truthandfiction
1h1 hour ago

BREAKING: Angela Merkel reportedly told CDU leaders she will not run for reelection

[Miss Marple]

I told you....
cc: @seanhannity @realDonaldTrump @VP @PressSec @TomFitton @Thomas1774Paine pic.twitter.com/Da74qOi3g1

— 🌴☀️Karen☀️🌴🇺🇸 (@KarenMonsour12) October 29, 2018

Click on the picture link for the pseudo-bomber dressed up at a democrat banquet with a dem donor.

[Miss Marple]

Thomas Wictor is done with social media.

He is going to be doing live streams on YouTube until he gets successful, at which point he figures YouTube will shut him down.

[henry]

Note, Hillary still cant fined WI on a map.

Want to know just how important Wisconsin is in the midterm election? Take a look at the political luminaries who visited over the past six days.

Sen. Kamala Harris on Sunday. Sen. Bernie Sanders on Monday. President Donald Trump on Wednesday. And, the biggest prize of all for Democrats, former President Barack Obama on Friday.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/26/democrats-tackle-scott-walker-942428

[Miss Marple]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/manchin-trouble-in-west-virginia-some-people-love-him-but-wont-vote-for-him

Salena Zito article.

[Jane]

"And they just about lost me having James Taylor doing "You've Got a Friend" the National Anthem for the opening game."

Jimmy,

He's a local. I assume that's why they chose him.

[Miss Marple]

Donald J. Trump
‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump
12m12 minutes ago

There is great anger in our Country caused in part by inaccurate, and even fraudulent, reporting of the news. The Fake News Media, the true Enemy of the People, must stop the open & obvious hostility & report the news accurately & fairly. That will do much to put out the flame...

....of Anger and Outrage and we will then be able to bring all sides together in Peace and Harmony. Fake News Must End!

[Miss Marple]

I live with the mess brought about y the fraudulent news stories and commentary. My daughter is absolutely convinced that President Trump wants to get rid of Medicare, and cannot understand why I support him.

I told her that wasn't true and she told me I was gullible and uninformed.

[Captain Hate]

Progressive Inc must really, really want to get rid of Brat.

I'm sure there are some GOPe types who're still upset at him defeating Eric Cantor.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Oh that candidate spanberger took two years to teach at the "school for terrorist" international Saudi academy that 'boasts' at least one al Qaeda plotter.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

It must be the Russians again.

[Miss Marple]

Donald J. Trump
‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump
5m5 minutes ago

Had a very good conversation with the newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who won his race by a substantial margin. We agreed that Brazil and the United States will work closely together on Trade, Military and everything else! Excellent call, wished him congrats!

[henry]

Tax money laundering 101:

California Rising @KernUnited
9h
Replying to @jaketapper @TomSteyer and 2 others

Follow the Democrat money:

Billionaire @TomSteyer who is trying to impeach @realDonaldTrump is financed by the California State Controller @BettyYeeforCA.

She directed the State pension fund @CalPERS to make MASSIVE investments in Steyer's hedge fund:

https://twitter.com/KernUnited/status/1056743380351246336

[henry]

That reality will begin to change on Oct. 29, when a law takes effect that should end that agonizing choice between working while sick or losing money.

Gov. Phil Murphy signed the paid sick leave law in May, which will require most employers to pay for a limited number of sick days, based on hours already worked that year.

https://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/10/nearly_everyone_will_be_entitled_to_sick_days_soon.html

[henry]

Cut admin & you won't need the stupid referendum (that I will vote against).

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/education/school-districts-statewide-seeking-billion-from-voters/article_9115e461-4992-5960-bc3f-bd215d8d02be.html

[henry]

Well done, Alabama.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/alabama-mcdonalds-gunman-killed-by-armed-dad-who-is-injured-in-shootout

[Beasts of England]

Congratulations to the Red Sox and their JOMer fan base!! I thought it was a great series...

[Rocco]

A few years ago, a friend of my youngest was in a club in Worcester (Wista) and when he noticed Jose Canseco drinking at the bar alone, he yelled out SNITCH. Johnny did this a few times as he watched Canseco trying to figure out who was yelling. Then Canseco followed him into the restroom and while they're both standing at the urinals taking care of business, Canseco asks Johnny, "so you think I'm a snitch?" Johnny played dumb and said I don't know what you're talking about and left.

When Johnny was 5 or 6 years old, I used to think that kid's lucky he's cute because he'd be dead if he were my kid! He's still a wise ass, but he is a good kid.

[anon]

OK yesterday was the much heralded Souls to the Polls effort of Fla Democrat Party and for them it was a modest success. They did cut into the Republican lead overall which still stands at 59K ballots after the first week of early voting. Note to get back to near zero or even a small positive, Democrats would need that same effort nearly every single day of week 2. The next couple days will be instructive of where this is all heading in FLA. Were Democrats, who we were told ad nauseum ere sper fired up and salivating to vote, following the instructions of General Andrew Jackson ( don't fire until you can see the whites of their eyes ) and held their fire for most of the first week, or are they really in an enthusiasm gap with Republicans? Check back with me on Weds and we should have a couple days of the 2nd week to make that determination.

Don't forget in 2016 Ds were up 96K ballots, and still lost by about 120K. Being up 59K with a week to go of early voting, is a pretty good position to be in. These are votes cast. One more admonition, remember that northern Florida much like North Carolina has a lot of registered Democrats who never changed their registration but don't vote for Democrats anymore. Its better than it looks on paper.

[henry]

The Wall Street Journal @WSJ
55s

U.S. to deploy 5,000 troops to the southern border, up from initial estimates of 800, as a migrant caravan moves north in Mexico

[Extraneus]

Baroness Tonge Blames Israel, Netanyahu for ‘Reigniting’ Hatred Against Jews

Former Lib Dem peer Baroness Jenny Tonge claimed Israel is to blame for a resurgence in anti-Jewish hatred in a social media post made just hours after Robert Bowers allegedly killed 11 people in Saturday’s Pittsburgh synagogue attack. The independent anti-Israel peer, who resigned from the Liberal Democrats in 2016, made her thoughts clear on Facebook. She wrote: “Absolutely appalling and a criminal act, but does it ever occur to Bibi and the present Israeli government that it’s actions against Palestinians may be reigniting antisemitism?

“I suppose someone will say that it is anti Semitic to say so?”

[Extraneus]

Chris Murphy Mocks Trump for Wanting Armed Security in Places of Worship

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) mocked President Donald Trump for speaking in favor of armed security in places of worship following the October 27 attack on the Pittsburgh synagogue. The Tree of Life Synagogue had no security at the time of the attack, and Trump lamented the absence of good guys with guns.

Trump said, “If they had protection inside, the result would have been far better. This is a dispute that will always exist, I suspect, but if they had protection inside the synagogue maybe it could have been a very … different situation.” He observed that the lack of security allowed the attacker “to do things, unfortunately, that he shouldn’t have been able to do.”

Murphy responded to Trump’s statement by tweeting, “Trump wants gunmen armed w semi-automatic rifles in every single public place – every school, church, synagogue, shopping mall, restaurant.”

Not actually disagreeing with Trump; just blowing a whistle for his dogs.

[James D.]

Ext - wow, that's...not surprising at all.

The Left has spend the last 50 years attacking Israel at every turn, in ever more strident terms, but somehow they think they have no responsibility at all for all the hatred they've fanned.

[Captain Hate]

So what is the Chris Murphy solution? C'mon genius, let's hear it.

[henry]

CH, disarming the rest of us so we can be in the camps too?

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Baroness tonge, is that like cardinal fang, yes she's a well known nutter.

[Extraneus]

Howard Dean wants Gab.com tried as an ‘accomplice to murder’

[Extraneus]

HILLARY: ‘WELL I’D LIKE TO BE PRESIDENT’

Clinton was pressed on whether she would run again in 2020 to which she replied, “No…..no.” Clinton’s interviewer picked up on the momentary delay saying, “that was a pause,” prompting the former secretary of state to declare, “well, I’d like to be president. I think, hopefully, when we have a Democrat in the Oval Office in January of 2021, there’s going to be so much work to be done.”

Clinton was further pressed on how much of a role she will play in the 2020 election to which she replied, “I’m not even going to even think about it until we get through this Nov. 6 election about what’s going to happen after that, but I’m going to do everything in my power to make sure we have a Democrat in the White House come January of 2021.”

[henry]

Limerick King @TheLimerickKing
3m

An ode to a desperate plan
That Trump is a Jew-hating man
The Left is in pain
And going insane
Next Tuesday, their sh*t hits the fan

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Compare:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2002/mar/17/schools.religion

[Extraneus]

(Click to open.)

[Momto2]

Has anyone read any estimates of how the storm damage might impact the vote next week?

Only 8 days until election day. I've re-watched several YouTube videos of election night 2016 in anticipation of more sad anchor faces (praying and hoping!)

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

And contrast:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2003/jun/19/foreignpolicy.israel

[Extraneus]

(Click to open.)

[Extraneus]

NBC REPORTER ADDRESSES AVENATTI CONTROVERSY, BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN

• NBC has come under scrutiny for sitting on a story for weeks that discredited Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh accuser Julie Swetnick.
• Michael Avenatti, a lawyer for Swetnick, put NBC reporter Kate Snow in touch in late September with a woman he claimed would back up Swetnick’s allegations against Kavanaugh.
• The woman disputed Swetnick’s allegations while alleging that Avenatti “twisted [her] words.”
• Snow withheld those details until Thursday. Under fire, she says she stands by her reporting.

“By the time we were able to find the woman independently from Mr. Avenatti, who declined to give us her full legal name and phone number, and fully report and vet her story, the Kavanaugh confirmation process was over and the news value was limited,” she tweeted.

Snow did not explain the discrepancy in the timeline when asked about it on social media.

Snow claimed that NBC ran Thursday’s story because it “became newsworthy again” after Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley referred both Avenatti and Swetnick to the Department of Justice for investigation into whether they made false statements to Congress.

[Captain Hate]

Yeeaarrgghh must be self medicating again.

[Jack is Back!]

Ex,

LOL. I can't see that particular "drive" often enough. Imagine having a klutz like that around the "football"?

While I am here, your Latin Phrase of the Day:

Studium historiae Romanae difficile est.

Although, I found it fascinating.

[Beasts of England]

Fascinating indeed, JiB!!

[Que tal, Hermano?]

Amazing, I was understanding Dr. Bernard Piece's efforts, 'til I saw I was just sargassed.

[Dave (in MA)]

Ultra moonbat John Henry: "I think we will", on going to the White House.

[Miss Marple]

The Daily Caller
‏Verified account @DailyCaller
1m1 minute ago

BREAKING: Suspicious package addressed to CNN intercepted at Atlanta post office. Package is similar to those sent last week.

[Miss Marple]

New threaad!

[henry]

the future the social media CEOs want to impose on us:

https://twitter.com/Psythor/status/1056811593177227264

[Dave (in MA)]

Does Asshat Dr. Yeaargh want the USPS and Dodge tried as accomplices, too?

[Jack is Back!]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/monkeys-kill-man-tree-bricks-13448752

Here lies Dharampal Singh
Irritation to the monkeys he did bring
Lots of bricks they threw down
And killed him on his way into town

[Greg Q]

And yes, I recall that a few years back there were two independents caucusing with the Dems; I welcome a memory jog if someone cares to look it up and remind me.

The name you're looking for is Angus King:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angus_King

[anon]

ITwo independents a socialist and a frud.

Had to fix that fake news.

[anon]

frud = fraud