Memeorandum


Powered by TypePad

« Grist For Something... | Main | How The Democrats Can Win The White House In 2020 (And Why They Won't) »

November 06, 2018

Comments

Sue

If Beto beats Cruz, he’s your next president. He’s leading in early voting 56-42.

Pinandpuller

Turns out 10 generations of second cousin marriage is a lead pipe cinch.

Tom Maguire

Say what? Nate Silver has the Reps with a 95% chance of holding the Senate. Fox? 56%

Maybe both groups want to deliver good news to their side as the night undolds.

And the House? Silver has the Dems with a 55% chance at control; Fox has Dems at 77%.

Geez, for Trumpsters Silver is the Feel Good site right now.

Dave (in MA)

JimNorCal | November 06, 2018 at 08:23 PM
From the Cigar Shover's Star Wars Cantina Cabinet.

derwill

538 now giving GOP 60% chance to keep the House.

Pinandpuller

Joe Donnely has high hopes to be President Avenatti's ambassador to Ireland in 2020.

jimmyk on iPhone

Sue, I’m seeing 51-48 now for Beto. So moving in Cruz’s direction.

Sue

Oh I think Cruz pulls it off but not by much.

Jane#walkaway

Ugh

Benjy

He's like an SS officer under command

"I vas chust following orders"

Captain Hate

Karen Tumulty @ktumulty
3m
More Carville: "This is not going to be the wave election that people like me would have hoped for."
Posted by: MSM is the Deep States Mentally Unbalanced Girlfriend at November 06, 2018 08:30 PM (+om3e)

Suck it, Serpenthead.

Pinandpuller

I wish Douglas Adams was still alive to plunge The Heart of Silver deep into the core of Magrathea. 55% chance and falling.

MAM

Don’t get bummed out. I remember Hillary leading for much of the night in 2016. We knew the house was a lot to defend. Hang in there!

mike in houston

Just saw this

The 538 forecast has dropped to just a 39.3% chance that the Democrats take the House tonight.

That is something that was unthinkable just 24 hours ago for most...

Still a lot of time to go tonight, but this is not the start to #ElectionNight that Democrats wanted.

PDinDetroit

Either ThyphusPad ate my comment about Dearbornistan or TM killed it...

jimmyk on iPhone

I wonder what caused that dip in 538’s assessment. It doesn’t seem like there’s much info.

lurkersusie

good news, if true

Henry Olsen
@henryolsenEPPC
·
16s
I am one more set of results away from calling Indiana for Braun. Donnelly is not doing what he needs to do anywhere of size.

henry

CNBC has NJ re-electing peso Menendez. Maybe DOJ can retry and convict his sorry ass this time.

Dave Seville

It's on the last page, PD.

JimNorCal

Free James D: "I think I’m just going to go to bed now and pray that when I wake up in the morning ..."

Sleep well. When you wake, Hillary will STILL not be President

Dave (in MA)

Beto Menendez, the jailbait john.

Captain Hate

Your comment's at the bottom of the last page, PD.

Threadkiller

Issa is betting against that 538 number, mike. He called his old seat for the Dems. Amongst his other defeatist garbage that throws the Republican under the bus he also blames Paul Ryan's GOPe for not spending a dime on this race.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/06/issa-lose-california-election-2018-965037

Miss Marple


Bret Baier
‏Verified account @BretBaier
1m1 minute ago

It is now 8:30 on the East Coast and 7:30 in Arkansas, where polls have just closed and Fox can now project that incumbent Republican Governor Asa Hutchinson will defeat Democratic challenger Jared Henderson.

Barbara

I remember Hillary leading for much of the night in 2016. We knew the house was a lot to defend. Hang in there!

MAM,

Agreed. The media always makes this painful. It's what they live for.

Tom Maguire
Either ThyphusPad ate my comment about Dearbornistan or TM killed it.

Someone said something about inbreeding that I didn't care for. Can't remember who now, but don't think it was PD, No harm, no foul.

Dave (in MA)

I, for one, support our anti-inbreeding overlord.

Miss Marple

There’s a rainbow shining over the US Capitol as the sun sets on Election Day. 🕊 pic.twitter.com/8O9wM2AUdX

— Tiffany FitzHenry (@Tiff_FitzHenry) November 6, 2018

Picture at the link.

lyle

TV is off. Listening to The Rippingtons and making grilled pork tenderloin stir-fry. Hasta de la manana, mi gente bonita.

Threadkiller

Local radio dude says Issa kept $800,000 in campaign money in his own future campaign treasure chest. Apparently he promised it to the Republican trying to win the seat he retired from, but failed to deliver.

During the birther wars I pegged this guy as an asshole.

Miss Marple


Jon Thompson
‏Verified account @JonThompsonGOP
6m6 minutes ago

93% reporting in Florida: @RonDeSantisFL 50.0%, @AndrewGillum 48.8%

MAM

Barbara - lets hope the results will be worth the wait! My wish - John James wins in Michigan🙏🏻

Tom Maguire
I remember Hillary leading for much of the night in 2016. We knew the house was a lot to defend. Hang in there!

It's about the second inning. Plenty of game left. Holding the Senate is key (for more judges!). The House would be gravy for us, egg on the face of the Dems. (If food metaphors are your cup of tea...)

jimmyk on iPhone

Fox calls it for Barr (R) over McGrath in KY.

Pinandpuller

I think Cruz wins the popular vote. What margin for automatic recounts?

Did Beto blow all his recount money on consultants and Caravan Swag?

Sue

Looks like Barr-R is going to win KY 6

Captain Hate

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit watching my wife get boned by better men.
Posted by: Cap'n Bill Kristol at November 06, 2018 08:40 PM (DuAZ5)

PDinD

It's on the last page, PD.

Your comment's at the bottom of the last page, PD.

Thank you DS and CH! I guess if you delete enough comments, some posts get sucked back to the previous page.

henry

NYT has Barr called as the winner (R)

Dave Seville

I'm having a hard time understanding the point of Silver's odds if they change minute by minute and by not insignificant amounts.
Does his betting window never close?

mike in houston


Dems have flipped FL27, MI13, PA03, and VA10. GOP has flipped KY03, putting the Dems up 3 as of 8:30. Definitely not a blue wave

Tom Maguire

Fox calls KY 6 race for incumbent Barr (R) over McGrath. Not a pickup but a bellwether hold. Sort of a BFD.

Captain Hate

Did Beto blow all his recount money on consultants and Caravan Swag?

LeBron's support turned off transplanted Laker fans.

henry

Johnny Verhovek
@JTHVerhovek
.@ABC News can project that IN Sen. Joe Donnelly has lost to Republican challenger Mike Braun

First GOP pick-up in the Senate of the night

lyle

I stand with Dave on our inbred host.

Found this killer Korean marinate for the pork. Butterflied and scored and marinated for a couple hours. Now on the grill. Tuscan IGT for slurping.

Pinandpuller

Is Bernie going to redistribute his votes?

Miss Marple

Told ya!!!


zerohedge
‏ @zerohedge
54s55 seconds ago

ABC News projects that Republican Mike Braun will win the Senate race in Indiana, effectively ending Democrat hopes of overturning GOP majority in Senate

jimmyk on iPhone

Uh-oh, Brat falls behind.

gentlejim

I way behind here.

It looks like the VP’s brother is going to Congress from the IN 6th. :)
Walorski should hold her seat for IN 2nd.
Braun is looking very strong, but Lake County (The State of Lake) is being held, as usual.

mike in houston

NYT has Barr called as the winner (R)

The Lexington Herald Leader will be so sad

Bernardo de la paZ

Jumping the gun:

https://mobile.twitter.com/alimhaider/status/1059984556454019073

Captain Hate

Does his betting window never close?

He set the hook in those suckers months ago; now he's just toying with them.

mad jack

geeze louise, partial results when not matched against recent prior election results from the same area don't tell you anything.

Tom Maguire

Fox won't call Indiana for Braun yet but others have. Interesting - was there a widely circulated memo about avoiding confirmation bias?

Jane#walkaway

Dave, anything good happening in MA?

Anyone know what is going on in CT?

Bernardo de la paZ

So did mailman son torpedo dewine

Momto2

MAM - I am hoping and praying for John James, too!

Tom Maguire

The gutless weenies at the failing NY Times now have a banner saying they will begin moving the needle on their forecasts shortly.

henry

Polls about to close in WI. I can get info once this stupid baseball game is over.

lyle

(If food metaphors are your cup of tea...)

You called? 😎

Miss Marple

https://www.wkrn.com/news/billlee-elected-tennessee-s-governor-defeats-former-nashville-mayor-karl-dean/1577185844

Bill Lee is GOP.

Pinandpuller

Braun The Quicker Picker Upper.

Miss Marple


zerohedge
‏ @zerohedge
5s6 seconds ago

REPUBLICAN ABBOTT WINS TEXAS GOVERNOR RACE: NBC
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

Thomas Collins

Sure there are good happenings in Mass., Jane. Bosox are still WS champs, and Patriots look ready to make another run. Oh, you mean elections? Well, Mass. still has as much competition for the left as North Korea.

Dave (in MA)

Ha, are you kidding, Jane?

Captain Hate

Mailman's son didn't do a damn thing for DeWine, which was ok because everyone hates Katshit. DeWine is a very unappealing candidate. Thanks again Ohio GOP

Sue

Oh shit. Too early to call Texas senate race. I may puke.

mike in houston

Marcia Blackburn will win #TNSEN @ABC projects. Close to zero chance of a Dem Senate now.

Pinandpuller

Who is the Senate Majority Leader and Pro Tem?

Miss Marple


Henry Olsen
‏ @henryolsenEPPC
4m4 minutes ago

I'm calling Florida Governor for DeSantis. The latest Broward dump means there should be less than 100,000 votes total left and DeSantis' lead should withstand that surge. It, too, will be very close, 50,000 votes either way.

anonamom

Blackburn called in TN--wins big.

lyle

In case anyone missed my comment on the previous thread, the D governor candidate in Eye Dee Ho is (apparently) a bona fide Native American woman. Eat yer hearts our, Massholes.

Strawman Cometh

Nate Silver

Verified account

@NateSilver538
Follow Follow @NateSilver538
More
Well, I'm trying to do 6 things at once -- we think our live election day forecast is definitely being too aggressive and are going to put it on a more conservative setting where it waits more for projections/calls instead of making inferences from partial vote counts.

Miss Marple


Boris Epshteyn
‏Verified account @BorisEP
33s33 seconds ago

“This is not a blue wave.” - @jaketapper on @CNN right now.

PDinD

I am hoping and praying for John James, too!

Mee too!!!

Miss Marple


🇺🇸 CHIZ
‏ @CHIZMAGA
23m23 minutes ago

🔴Republicans hold all 7 House seats in Indiana! Way to go Hoosiers!

Pinandpuller

TN called? Bredesen Campaign conjoined with Taylor Swift career.

TOD 20:00.

Tom Maguire

At this point the Blue Wave is looking like a ripple. Menendez holds on in NJ but SO FAR the Reps are holding their "Lean R" seats, so a 2010 wipe-out is not happening.

The gloomy Nate Silver has the Dems picking up 25 House seats (they need 23). 55% chance of Dem control.

henry

haven't seen any numbers at all.

CNBC
2m
Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin won her re-election bid in Wisconsin, defeating Republican Leah Vukmir in Tuesday’s election, according to an @NBCNews projection

Tom Maguire

Wow, now Fox is doing pre-calls: Brit Hume just said that they are NOT calling FL for DeSantis (R, Gov.) over Gillum but others are.

mad jack

when did the texas polls close? 8est? i find it hard to believe any significant results are out yet?

derwill

When there’s a wave you see unexpected upsets. That’s just not happening.

Sue

Jake atapoer just said no blue wave.

Sue

Texas is closed but Harris County has a few pacts still open because of voting problems.

anonamom

Might be time to turn on MSNBC...

lyle

I must say I like the cut of the jib of this this recently new commenter, Tom Maguire! 😉

gentlejim

I’m predicting the FL senate race goes to a recount after Scott barely speaks it out. What happens on recount? A car with a trunk full of ballots with MN plates is found in South Beach.

Sue

Fox just said they aren’t seeing what they expected from their new polling. LOL

Miss Marple

USA FOR TRUMP
🇺🇸
‏ @USATrump45
1m1 minute ago

🇺🇸 LIVE: BREAKING: ALERT: Republicans have taken the lead in House projections from Reuters, AP, WP.
DEVELOPING

henry

Florida is toast... passed felon voting:


krinskymak's avatar
Miriam Krinsky @krinskymak
3m
More than 1M ppl will get back the right to vote in Fla w/ the passage of Amend 4. Fla led the nation in disenfranchisement of potential voters-- over 10 % of all potential voters and 20% of potential black voters -- due to felony records. vox.com/policy-and-pol… via @voxdotcom

Pinandpuller

Wave goodbye to Speaker Pelosi 2: The Sickening.

Tom Maguire
I must say I like the cut of the jib of this this recently new commenter, Tom Maguire!

I am a total chatterbox when I'm nervous. SUPER annoying on bumpy plane rides.

Sue

John Roberts Gox News...Lee Greenwood best Taylor Swift.

Clarice Feldman

TM, you could never be "super annoying".

matt - deplore me if you must

Well, from what I have seen while doing e mails the blue wave is more like a zephyr on Walden Pond. Let's hope and pray.

CA polls open until 8PM. All I have seen in our district is Mimi Walters signs with a small scattering of the marxist Law professor from UCI running against her. UCI Law is particularly toxic. Hopefully we keep most of the SoCal Republican seats but won't know until late.

Sue

Sorry guys. I’m about 3 beers over my limit. I’m a nervous wreck.

henry

CNBC Now @CNBCnow
35s
Dow futures rise 120 points to session highs on indications GOP performing better than expected cnb.cx/2JO2oqg

lyle

With all respect to our Florida-dwelling JOMerz, I can’t stand that state. If you feel a reciprocal animus towards ID, so be it. Still friends?

::searches for pinkie swear emoji::

rich

Posted by: jimmyk on iPhone | November 06, 2018 at 08:52 PM

noticed that. Progressive Inc brought in dump trucks full of cash and iirc the district lines were tinkered with a bit. about .1% difference so far ... just to point out-the Dems are voting for a CIA agent in Spanberger (D).

Jane#walkaway

I vowed to move if Gilliam won, and Mr. Marlene was with me. I'm hoping I can stay.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Wilson/Plame