How The Democrats Can Win The White House In 2020 (And Why They Won't)

Frank Bruni jumped the gun by writing in the 2020 Presidential prospects a few days before the midterms. He offers some sensible advice from both Republican and Democratic strategists on how to unseat Trump. The Dem base can't and won't heed it, but here we go:

And this time around, assuming that nothing interrupts the president’s bid for a second term, there will be a host of additional questions and concerns. They’re peculiar to his intentionally abrasive personality, his deliberately provocative tactics and his almost mystical domination of the media.

Should his opponent join him in the mud, which is the approach that the lawyer Michael Avenatti not only recommends but models? Is it even possible to avoid such a descent? Eric Holder and Hillary Clinton apparently think not, to judge by recent public comments of theirs (“When they go low, we kick ’em,” Holder said).

But plenty of other prominent Democrats told me that the smartest strategy is to float above the muck, because campaigns are about contrasts and many Americans are desperate for something cleaner and calmer.

“There are a lot of people who are exhausted by the daily rancor that Trump has treated the country to and by this kind of tribal politics,” said David Axelrod, an architect of Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

Yeah, but the crazies are just warming up. Lots of virtue left to signal!

Some Democrats even believe that an eloquent summons to civility and exhortation to move beyond rank partisanship could be the winning message, because Americans increasingly grasp the peril that we’re in — the Pittsburgh synagogue massacre was only the latest bloody illustration — and because Trump can’t ever claim to be an agent of healing.

“It’s about confronting him where he’s weakest,” said Bob Kerrey, the former senator and former Nebraska governor. “You have to say to the audience: This country is dangerously divided and it’s on the edge of something awful.”

Kerrey said that in a perfect world, a Democratic candidate would go even further than that in the primary and tell voters: “You’re going to get angry at me, because I’m going to embrace a Republican idea if it feels good. Don’t expect me to be 100 percent — 100 percent may make you happy, but it won’t pull this country together.”

I love the sound of that. I also suspect it’s a doomed fantasy.

It is a mostly-doomed fantasy. Ardent lefties loath Trump both because of his persona and his current embrace of fairly mainstream Republican positions on taxes, regulation, defense, guns and abortion. There are plenty of conservatives and centrists who oppose the Trump persona but are OK with a lot of his positions. Asking them to reject both the positions and the persona was too much in 2016 (eg, evangelicals and Gorsuch/Kavanaugh) and probably will be so again in 2020. But the base Dems will persist!

However, in a crowded field it is possible that while Spartacus et al split the Sanders wing a centrist could sneak past the Democrat base and into the White House.

A second major challenge is this - Democrats need to understand and - dare we say it - have a bit of respect for trump voters and their concerns:

And it better not sneer at Trump and condescend to his supporters. No baskets, please, and no deplorables. Midwesterners who voted for him won’t be lured back into the Democratic fold if they’re made to feel ashamed about their decision and told that they were duped.

“That would be fatal,” said Beth Myers, a prominent Republican consultant and longtime senior adviser to Mitt Romney. She wasn’t speaking as someone who wanted a strategy to dislodge Trump; she was just sizing up the situation.

She noted that most of the Democrats signaling possible candidacies “are from blue states and don’t really understand the Trump phenomenon — and that is a disadvantage. In my little liberal Democratic world in Massachusetts, people seriously can’t comprehend how this guy got elected president. But when you travel around the country, it’s very clear.”

Her liberal friends, she added, will ask her, “How can we have let this happen?” And she has to explain to them that “there are a lot of people in the country who have views different from you. This is their guy. And you need to understand that before you run someone against him. Hillary Clinton couldn’t even understand how this guy could be considered. That was a huge problem for her.”

Axelrod made the same general point to me, and I think it’s the crucial counsel. “If Democrats are going to win in 2020, it can’t be with the careless presumption that everyone who voted for Trump is a toothless, ignorant racist,” he said, adding that voters who were still reeling from the 2008 financial collapse and voters disgusted by the paralysis on Capitol Hill “viewed Trump as the kick in the ass that Washington needed. There has to be room for these voters, but if they’re shunned and belittled for having supported him in the first place, they will just be driven further into his column.”

Cue the Mission Impossible soundtrack. The many virtues of the Democratic base voters won't signal themselves, so Deplorable we are and Deplorables we will be. "Stop hating, you racist misogynistic, transphobic, homophobic, Islamaphobic hate-filled haters" will be the key Democratic message from their 'woke' base.

Bruni also identifies another major obstacle:

Standing out will require one nonnegotiable quality: the vividness to loosen Trump’s stranglehold on the media. To that end, any serious challenger has to figure out how to tell his or her story in a riveting way.

Trumps ownership of the media and ability to control news cycles makes the media adoration of Obama look like "Barry who?" coverage. Any Democrat to gain early momentum will get a media shoulder ride as the Next Great Savior, but that is a tough role to fill.

I did want to add this -: on Fox last night a panelist mentioned that the crazies had taken over the Democratic Party. That drew a sharp rebuke from (IIRC) Chris Wallace, who noted the Dems were winning House races with veterans, businessman, and centrists galore. To that end, let me pull this from the NY Times recap of the evening. First, on Pelosi:

But at a meeting of Democratic donors and strategists earlier on Tuesday, [Pelosi] signaled there were lines she would not cross next year. Attempting to impeach Mr. Trump, she said, was not on the agenda.

Nor should it be:

The Democrats’ broad gains in the House, and their capture of several powerful governorships, in many cases represented a vindication of the party’s more moderate wing. The candidates who delivered the House majority largely hailed from the political center, running on clean-government themes and promises of incremental improvement to the health care system rather than transformational social change.

A non-crazy Democrat ought to have a fighting chance against Trump even though Trump may well be running as a peace and prosperity incumbent. But I don't think "non-crazy" will describe the eventual nominee.

Comments

[matt - deplore me if you must]

first?

[mad jack]

No such thing as a moderate democrat once elected. The left will primary any moderate dem. Unicorns are more common.

[matt - deplore me if you must]

Maybe having the crazies in charge of the House is a good thing. We have two years and I think that some of the "moderate" Dems elected will do anything to keep their seats and vote against some of the worst excesses.

Having Pelosi and Maxine and Schiff and Cummings in charge is a gift that will keep on giving.

[Dave Seville]

From the last thread;

--Ain’t pessimism, it’s reality.--

Bullshit.
Political realities are created, not an unchanging constant.
Our country was over with, done in 2012.
And 2008 and 1992 and 96 and 76 and....

This is what I hate about pessimism;
1. Most of the horrible stuff it worries about doesn't happen.
2. It is a self fulfilling prophecy and ingrains a losers attitude.
3. It is contagious.
4. It assumes it knows the future when it very clearly doesn't.
5. It occupies its adherents time with whining and preparing for bad stuff instead of causing good stuff.

The fact is the pessimism of conservatives who perpetually think their party let them down is the flip side of the thing they claim to hate the most; the useless GOPe creeps who also assume progdom is inevitable and adopt an accommodating defensive loser strategy. The two sides of that coin work in tandem to suppress the conservative majority.
Regardless of the GOPe, if the rest of the GOP was made up of can-do Reagans and Trumps, the GOPe would be gone, the Dems would be routed and we would be on a decades long winning streak.
Include me out of a losing strategy.

Being an optimist I can tell you that if the progs are given the dictatorial, anti-American power they seek by that two headed coin there are millions of us optimists who will opt for ending that power by whatever means necessary. Better find a place to hide when that happens, because otherwise you might be forced to win.

Addendum;
The perpetual "all is lost now" thing is indicative of why pessimists cause losses. It is entirely short term thinking. The idea a couple of years of Dem control of the house determines the entire future is absurd as is the idea Florida is now perpetually blue and nothing can change that and oh my everything is now impossible...

[Dave Seville]

-- My main consideration for that is the exit polls showing 58% saying the nation is moving in the wrong direction. --

It is still moving in the wrong direction. It has just slowed down a little.
Why assume all of that 58% is people longing for more progdom?

[Threadkiller]

Also from the last thread:

there are millions of us optimists who will opt for ending that power by whatever means necessary.

What is the tipping point that organizes this group and puts them into action?

[Jane]

Well just maybe this shift in power will show everyone how nuts the democrats are. But I doubt it.

[matt - deplore me if you must]

I feel very sad about Virginia. A good state infected with the Washington disease.

What is the tone of the media today? I don't think all of those barrels of ink and trillions of pixels did much to affect the outcome.

$2 Billion spent and all they got was a lousy T shirt. Obama has proven once again that he is a worthless shitbag and all of those Hollywood assholes must be wondering how their socialist pipe dreams went up in smoke.

It will be interesting watching McConnell and Pelosi interact. She can spout all sorts of the worst nonsense and then McConnell can just turn to her and smile.

[henry]

The Dems ran crazy people in WI this year and won. They now have the felon bulge to guarantee FL in 2020. At what point do the Dems care if their candidates are insane, as long as they have a "D" next to their name? Their people vote anyway.

Plus the SS Cuck and company will be all in for the Dems again.

Unless the majority of Dems in office are Dems in jail by 2020... Trump has a much tougher challenge than in 2016.

[sbw]

WHAT THE EFF IS WRONG WITH THE "MOOD OF THE PEOPLE"

Ask rse.

Schools are the battleground for the single question we have been fighting over since Socrates:

Does an education belong to the government or to the individual?

--

Unequivocally, education belongs to the individual.

[Ralph L]

What is the tipping point ..
It's when the walls close in.

[Eye Doctor .]

President Donald Trump Must Fire Failed AG Jeff Sessions Today
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/11/president-donald-trump-must-fire-ag-jeff-sessions-today/

[jimmyk]

The stock market seems to be happy with the outcome. Yes, legislation will be impossible to pass, but Trump can continue to appoint good judges and deregulate. And there's not a damn thing the Ds can do but look ridiculous with investigations and impeachment proceedings.

[Dave Seville]

--What is the tipping point that organizes this group and puts them into action?--

Is that a serious question?
Do you suppose anyone would have told you before hand the shooting of Archduke Ferdinand would set off WWI?
Or that WWI would then set in motion the events that led to the Bolsheviks seizing Russia?
Or that some guys tossing tea into Boston Harbor and the Brits shooting a few people in the same city would lead to Lexington and Concord?

In each of those cases there were trends occurring that could have been discerned and were by many people, but what the flashpoints would be or how those events would unfold were unknown then just as they are now. That's why they call it history.
But not knowing the flashpoints didn't mean the trends didn't exist and those noting them were wrong.

[Harry]

Bruni should have stayed on as a food critic.

[henry]

Hanging chads anyone?

John Hayward @Doc_0
9m

Nelson is only calling for a recount because the Democrat high command is trying to boost morale and cushion the blow for a few days, give their voters something to get jazzed about so they stop asking where the "blue wave" went

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

And replace him with kobach, I tried to get hired as a school teacher they say rhats in demand, they don't give about what's needed.

[Threadkiller]

I have to run but my long winded thought can be summarized by saying that preparing for an all means necessary civil war seems to be the most pessimistic plan out there.

If you can be an optimist in the meantime because you are prepared for that, maybe others can be allowed to use their less pessimistic predictions to bolster their optimism.

I haven't read any of the regulars here say they were giving up.

[Threadkiller]

But not knowing the flashpoints didn't mean the trends didn't exist and those noting them were wrong.

Ledge Dwellers are noting trends as well.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

You don't want a civil war, with your neighbor against you, that's what Sarajevo Damascus Beirut look like yes it would be the same in London Paris or brussels.

[Dave Seville]

--I haven't read any of the regulars here say they were giving up.--

Who said they did?
Pessimists are perfectly happy to fight.
They just make everyone miserable by telling their brothers in arms it's all futile because we're going to lose and it's all pointless anyway.
They still fight; they just make a defeat a lot more likely.

[Threadkiller]

My 10:24 was before I saw your response, Ig.

I can elaborate later on why my question was "serious."

Later.

[Miss Marple]

Threadkiller,

Here is what I am going to do. I am going to sit my daughter down and make her listen to my point of view. I am going to be pleasant but firm in her understanding that she has to get her news from places other than Salon and television.

Today, when I go to lunch, I am going to talk about going to the rally. I will particularly quote the British guy who emigrated here in 1959 to avoid socialism, which is why he supported Trump.

I am not very good with in-person confrontation, but we HAVE to quit being afraid of democrats. We simply have to.

[Threadkiller]

it's all futile because we're going to lose and it's all pointless anyway.

Ok.... I didn't see any regulars say the above quote. (Which apparently does not mean "give up.")

[Threadkiller]

but we HAVE to quit being afraid of democrats. We simply have to.

Totally agree.

See you guys tonight. :-)

[Extraneus]

Kind of funny reading last night's thread after knowing the outcome.

Here' my reaction:

[JMHanes]

Willowed from the last thread:

henry:

"When you lose, you need to recognize that. FL felon voting just put 29 electoral college votes out of reach for the side of sanity. We need a plan for that."

The plan for that is staring you in the face. Look at the numbers Trump has been picking up among Latino/Hispanics and African-Americans.

If Dems are as feckless as they are promising to be, I think Trump may well continue to grow the minority share of the GOP. That was never going to happen over night, but family oriented, church going, Hispanics are a natural fit for the Republican party, and I believe black American's primary concern, as a demographic, is jobs, jobs which come with healthcare. Outside of inner cities, at least, they are also substantially more religious and more conservative socially than Democrats as a whole.

And as TM put it, "Its not as if Team Trump is felon-free. Put Manafort and Cohen on the campaign trail!."

[Jane]

Did Ellison win?

[Jane]

Nelson just asked for a recount.

[Extraneus]

Bluto: Hey! What's all this laying around shit?

Stork: What the hell are we supposed to do, ya moron?

D-Day: [to Bluto] War's over, man. Wormer dropped the big one.

Bluto: What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!

Otter: [to Boon] Germans?

Boon: Forget it, he's rolling.

Bluto: And it ain't over now. 'Cause when the goin' gets tough...

[thinks hard of something to say]

Bluto: The tough get goin'! Who's with me? Let's go!

[Bluto runs out, alone; then returns]

Bluto: What the fuck happened to the Delta I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh? This could be the greatest night of our lives, but you're gonna let it be the worst. "Ooh, we're afraid to go with you Bluto, we might get in trouble." Well just kiss my ass from now on! Not me! I'm not gonna take this. Wormer, he's a dead man! Marmalard, dead! Niedermeyer...

Otter: Dead! Bluto's right. Psychotic... but absolutely right. We gotta take these bastards. Now we could do it with conventional weapons, but that could take years and cost millions of lives. No, I think we have to go all out. I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part!

Bluto: We're just the guys to do it.

D-Day: [stands up]

Boon: [stands up] Let's do it.

Bluto: [shouting] "Let's do it"!

[all of the Deltas stand up and run out with Bluto]

[hrtshpdbox]

Trump is a masterful campaigner and in 2020 will run whatever type of campaign is required to win. If he thinks touchy-feeling will work, he'll do that; if he thinks scorched earth is the way to go, he'll do that. I'd expect the Dem candidate to be full lefty because I don't think there's any moderate Dems with any personality. It is a tall, tall order to beat Trump in the general. Hell, he's probably already thinking about how to carry the felon vote in Florida.

[jimmyk]

Here's one remote scenario where losing the House could matter:

Ben Shapiro
‏Verified account @benshapiro

Get ready for the 2020 nightmare scenario: Trump wins WI, loses MI and PA, and loses all four votes in ME. 269-269 tie. Election thrown to the House, presided over by...Nancy Pelosi.

But as Taranto points out, it's one vote per state.

[henry]

Jane, Ellison won.

[Marlene]

Jane,did you see that Nelson wants a recount?

[Extraneus]

Btw, why shouldn't ex-felons who've already served their time be allowed to vote?

I would have voted for that referendum.

Also, they probably have pretty low turnout, generally.

[Miss Marple]

Dan Crenshaw Laughs Back at 'SNL' https://t.co/Wc0Hm8h57g @townhallcom #AAG

— All American Girl (@AIIAmericanGirI) November 7, 2018

Article at link.

[Dave Seville]

--preparing for an all means necessary civil war seems to be the most pessimistic plan out there--

No. Not preparing for one because you'd lose it anyway is the most pessimistic plan out there.

--I can elaborate later on why my question was "serious."--

No need. I'm not interested in a debate on the subject or on the general one of optimist v pessimist.
They are fundamentally different and incompatible ways of looking at the future [and the past] and nothing is gained by trying to bridge incompatible philosophies.
The interesting thing is how many people are profoundly pessimistic in one area of their life and just as optimistic in others.
It's also interesting that events that you think would change either outlook in a person's life very often don't seem to.

[Tom R]

If we can debate the actual situation I would like to know if you think Trump had ammunition to use against the Dems that he withheld and If so, do you think it would have helped?
Now that's a good question and one I'm willing to respond to. He may have strategically fucked up by not demanding Sleepy Jeff to move quicker. I don't know that but it's certainly possible.
Replying to both TK and CH.

We all know Trump had the ammunition (evidence of criminal corruption by the Obama administration) but for reasons we can only speculate on decided not to use it. I certainly predicted he would have used it before the midterms. If not declassifying that info was a strategic fuckup on Trump's part that cost the GOP the House it doesn't make me feel any better saying he should have done what I predicted he would do. I prefer to think he made the decision to not use that ammunition because he and his advisors decided that the timing wasn't right and that Trump would get more benefit from it after the midterms. As other's have pointed out, the midterms were a battle that turned out to be a stalemate. What is important is winning the war. I'll follow up on that in a separate post.

[sbw]

we HAVE to quit being afraid of democrats.

Never was. Still am not.

[Extraneus]

S&P 500 up 1.4%

NASDAQ up 1.9%

[hrtshpdbox]

Ext, I'm with you there. Doing time is supposed to be paying one's debt to society. If someone can't vote when they get out, they've been gypped. And besides the probably low turnout for such folks, I'm not buying that they'd overwhelmingly be Dems.

[Texas Liberty Gal]

Ext - are those good numbers? I'm clueless when it comes to S&P and NASDAQ. They don't appear to be great numbers but as I said I know nothing.

[James D.]

I'm not buying that they'd overwhelmingly be Dems.

I am. And the Dems absolutely are, or else they wouldn't be pushing it.

[jimmyk]

I'm sure there are a lot things ex-felons can't do even after they've "done their time." I don't think it's obvious one way or the other about their right to vote, and I'm generally opposed to changing the rules without some compelling reason, so I'd have voted against it. Ok, there's also the fact that it's likely to help Democrats, though probably not as much as people here seem to think.

[Michael (fpa P4F) ... Stop the Witch Hunt - Stop the Coup !]

re the Florida Felon Vote amendment . . .

Some foreboding news from Deroy McKesson's (Black Lives Matter activist) twitter feed:

https://mobile.twitter.com/deray/status/1060014043535155201

deray
@deray
"Amendment 4 in Florida restoring the right to vote to nearly 2 million people was a success!"

This just about guarantees that Florida goes solid blue, forever, imho.
If the Left gets ~ 25% of those felons to vote, that would lead to an insurmountable advantage to the Dems.
I cannot envision how the R's in Florida can find enough voters to overcome that numerical advantage.

Interesting breakdown of party registration for felons, and likely effects of the amendment can be found here:

https://psmag.com/news/florida-passed-proposition-4-that-could-be-good-news-for-democrats

[jimmyk]

TLG, those are good numbers--anything over one percent is pretty big. Of course given the ambiguity of the outcome, it's not clear what the markets are reacting too, but I'd presume it's relief about the Senate and lack of a 'blue wave.' There was some yammering on Fox Business about how the markets love divided government, but they seemed to love one-party rule the last couple of years too.

[Dave Seville]

--Ok.... I didn't see any regulars say the above quote. (Which apparently does not mean "give up.")--

And that's another reason I won't debate it; another endless semantic rabbit trail that eventually becomes a point so narrow that it is point-less.
People engage in hyperbole literally all the time [see, like right there]. Hyperbole is something that is often not factually accurate and usually obviously so, so as to make a larger point or accentuate one.
For some reason you seem to enjoy debating the exaggerations in a statement made with intentional exaggeration to highlight a point.
It usually leads to me shaking my head in the manner of Captain Kirk after trying unsuccessfully to explain some nuance to the impervious Spock.
No thanks.

[lurkersusie]

Hopefully not true

Sean Davis
@seanmdav
Quick update on MT-SEN: Tester ran significantly behind his 2012 numbers in nearly all of the small, rural counties. But Rosendale hasn't cut into Tester's margins enough in the big ones, and those happen to be the ones with the most votes outstanding. Tester should hold on.

[JMHanes]

TK:

From the last thread: "If we can debate the actual situation I would like to know if you think Trump had ammunition to use against the Dems that he withheld and If so, do you think it would have helped?"

We know Trump has at least some ammunition, because he already threatened to declassify a chunk of it. We also know that he decided that the risks of a release outweighed the potential benefits, at this point in time, for whatever reason. As Old Lurker suggested, Trump may have decided he could sacrifice the House, but II think it's also quite possible he realized early on that there was no way we were going to keep it, no matter what he did, and concentrated on the must-win Senate.

That's just in response to the question as asked. I've already run through the reasons why I think he needed to keep that ammunition dry till after the election.

[Dave Seville]

--Btw, why shouldn't ex-felons who've already served their time be allowed to vote?--

How about owning guns?
Unlike voting that is actually a constitutional right.

[Miss Marple]

sbw,

Well, I have been afraid of democrats. My dem brother and my dem sister (the one who PAID to go hear Michele Obama) are very in your face when you disagree. And do not forget, I am living in my daughter's house.

I think I lost a lot of self-confidence when my ex-husband ditched me without warning, and I am slowly trying to get it back. I think I will look at (of all people) Lindsey Graham for my inspiration!

[Porchlight]

Thank you Iggy.

[Ralph L]

Two million felons in FL?
Not likely.

[henry]

Felon voting right or wrong isn't the point.

The point is a structural change in the electoral landscape, and one that favors Democrats for future Presidential (and Florida statewide) elections. That is a big win for the bad guys.

I don't see Trump changing 250,000 (or however many get bused to the polls) minds fast enough to sustain the 35,000 vote margin Scott just won. Not soon enough anyway.

[Porchlight]

TLG, from the last thread, yes, MN was a disappointment and I have friends who work for the GOP there. But they flipped MN-08 thanks in great part to Trump and it looks like Hagedorn may flip MN-01. So not all is lost.

[Captain Hate]

Getting lit up by D-Student McKissass isn't smart. That guy's as dumb as the JEF.

[Porchlight]

I hear you henry but a presidential election is not a midterm election. Sufficient unto the day...

[Miss Marple]

henry,

There are other changes going on in the electoral landscape. Florida felons are only one part.

More after I get back from lunch!

[Porchlight]

Dozens of Beto signs around my neighborhood disappeared overnight.

Today my #Resist colleague, who usually wears bright colors, is wearing the same black blouse she wore the day after Trump won and also the day after Kavanaugh was confirmed.

Lots of other folks around here wearing blue and looking sad.

The House is cold comfort to them, for what that's worth.

[Threadkiller]

No thanks.

Me too.

[Captain Hate]

Lots of other folks around here wearing blue and looking sad.

The House is cold comfort to them, for what that's worth.

Exactly. When the other side put their frowny faces on early last night that meant Rupert and his ignorant brats had to do something to counteract that. Looks like it worked...

[Old Lurker]

Ext "Btw, why shouldn't ex-felons who've already served their time be allowed to vote?"

Because "serving their time" does not pay their entire debt to society for the crime they committed. It is not some magic wand that makes it "like it never happened". Thinking it does is one of the cancers that has eroded our sense of shared community.

[Dave Seville]

Concur completely, OL.
First, most of them have committed many other felonies they will never pay for. Moreover many go on to commit many more.
There is a process by which a felon can demonstrate they have earned their franchise back on an individual basis [just as they can their 2nd amendment rights] and that's how it should be.

[mike in houston]

Interesting that John Culbertson, who had "scheduling problems" and didn't attend Trump's Houston rally, was defeated last night.

[JMHanes]

jimmyk:

"Of course given the ambiguity of the outcome, it's not clear what the markets are reacting too, but I'd presume it's relief about the Senate and lack of a 'blue wave.'"

I don't know about the markets, but I'm relieved that the uncertainty about "potential" results is over, in a sort of, "OK, now we know what we're working with," kind of way. We didn't have a wave of either color. The list of what the Prez & the Senate can accomplish without the House (See Obama presidency) is still a long one, particularly where business, regulation & foreign policy are concerned. I forget whether the tax cuts are set to expire, while the next House is in session, but if so, we know they'll be gone, and can plan accordingly. It's my impression that markets don't like uncertainty any more than I do.

Combining comments here:

It's clear that Dems are looking to pick up the felon vote in Fla. & Va. In reality, is that not really a pitiful comment on the state of the Democratic coalition?

[Old Lurker]

Not going to bother addressing this other than to say I do not accept a word of it and find it an offensive insult to people you know well enough to know better:

"This is what I hate about pessimism;
1. Most of the horrible stuff it worries about doesn't happen.
2. It is a self fulfilling prophecy and ingrains a losers attitude.
3. It is contagious.
4. It assumes it knows the future when it very clearly doesn't.
5. It occupies its adherents time with whining and preparing for bad stuff instead of causing good stuff."

[derwill]

I don’t think the country is lost yet. It would have been if Hillary had won two years ago, and looking back on it the fact that Donald Trump, of all people, is still president this morning seems more like a miracle than ever. The gains we made in the Senate is a BFD when it comes to remaking the judiciary. And that will go a long way in preserving what is left of our Republic. If Hillary had won, we’d be a one party state by now, so the loss of the House I see as more of a set back than the end of the world.

Keeping the House was a tall hill to climb given that so many R incumbents quit. I think Trump has been realistic about that all along, which is why he concentrated on the senate and key governorships.

Pelosi does not want to impeach—she apparently still has enough marbles left to know what a disaster that would be for her party. It’s going to be interesting to see if her cooler head prevails and I can’t believe I put those words into a sentence about Pelosi.

[Captain Hate]

The Florida amendment still excludes murderers and those who committed sexual crimes.

[Marlene]

The Dems held on to the Senate seat in Maine,because Angus King won easily. He is a fake independent.

[jimmyk]

Seems that McSally has won in AZ, along with Scott in FL, but I'm guessing Tester will end up edging out Rosendale (looks like most of the uncounted precincts are in blue areas), which will make the Senate 54-46, plus free of McCain and Flake. No wonder the stock market is up.

[henry]

waiting on Trump to do his victory dance.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/live/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wh

[Old Lurker]

And just as I was writing to smack Dave upside his head, he was posting to agree with me about something else.

Brothers much?

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Take bolsanaro, he's not just up against the really swamp critters but the gangs like the third commando (I heard about them first in a mitch rapp tale) al queda and Hezbollah which is in the triple frontier not that far away.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

They have a stupid film with Ben Affleck about the triple frontier.

[Captain Hate]

OMG THE SKY IS FALLING

For the First time since Reconstruction, Florida will have 2 Republican Senators.
Posted by: Surfperch at November 07, 2018 09:37 AM (P+H3W)

[Kevlar Kid]

Being prepared to execute contingency plans is counter-intuitively OPTIMISTIC.

i'm prepared for "the Big One" to hit out in SFO. contingency plans in place. pessimistic? if i sat cowering by the HAM radio listening for scuttlebutt re the Ring of Fire etc etc etc or monitoring the 8000 plus quakes that the planet undergoes daily... mebbe.

but to contingency plan "as if", it cultivates my optimism because i am ready to protect, within means, my family, property, and freedom in the event the worst should make an appearance.

out here in Earthquake country, a big shake could set off "armed interaction" between the survivors of the California welfare state--- politicians and beneficiaries--- as they struggle to retain power by usurping mine.

just sayin. who really can know.

PS: is David Saville really the infamous Ignatz? hard to keep up from outside the 3 point line.

[Schnider]

Losing the House is worth it to dump the deadwood anti-Trump Rinos. Now the question is when can we dump the low energy/low IQ ledge dwellers? All talk, no action.

[James D.]

No, he’s Dave in MA.

[Porchlight]

Interesting that John Culbertson, who had "scheduling problems" and didn't attend Trump's Houston rally, was defeated last night.

Erik Paulsen, MN-03, didn't attend Trump's rally in Rochester MN and also was defeated.

[Porchlight]

I thought Dave Saville was Ignatz.

[Porchlight]

Seville, that is.

[hrtshpdbox]

Most states restore felon's voting rights after time served. Until yesterday, only three states didn't have a regular process to restore voting rights - Florida, Kentucky, and Iowa.

https://www.nonprofitvote.org/voting-in-your-state/special-circumstances/voting-as-an-ex-offender/

[Old Lurker]

He is, Porch.

[derwill]

I also would be more upset at losing the House if they had actually done a damn thing these last two years. Sometimes it’s easier to fight an enemy face to face than deal with than a fake ally who is constantly undermining you from the shadows. (Looking at you Paul Ryan.)

[henry]

Most states restore felon's voting rights after time served

and that makes Florida more a Red state how?

[Kevlar Kid]

"I prefer to think he made the decision to not use that ammunition because he and his advisors decided that the timing wasn't right and that Trump would get more benefit from it after the midterms. As other's have pointed out, the midterms were a battle that turned out to be a stalemate. What is important is winning the war. I'll follow up on that in a separate post."

i prefer to think that same thought, Tom R.
___

a separate note re declassification: had the declass happened and we took the HOR many might have thought Trump's "continued divisiveness" was the reason Red Team won, seeing causality.

if i were in Trump's shoes with the declass lever in my hand:

1. i'd want Americans to see it after this ripple of a stalemate, to set a tone for 2020---

2. give Americans the opp to WATCH what the presumptuous Pelosi (doesn't she have to be elected Speaker first?) and company launch their partisan committee investigations in what will be a monster political wake.

a lot of voters still remember the scene from "the wizard of oz" where Toto pulls back the curtain.

Trump is Toto sometimes. like his congratulatory tweet about Pelosi. :D

[pj]

If you're going to have a do-nothing Congress, it works much better when it's controlled by the other party.

I'm sure Trump will have a better term than "Do-Nothing House", and he'll roll it out early 2019.

[JMHanes]

I was shocked to discover that my county is not as reliably Republican as I thought it was. Virginia Foxx was defeated by her Democratic challenger here. She won the district as a whole, however, so she'll be back in Congress next year. Although it's a 'non-partisan' office my very fav candidate will not be Soil & Water Conservation District Supervisor. Sniff. Sniff.

The State Constitutional amendment to require photo ID for in-person voting failed... by a mere 0.05% -- in my county, but good sense prevailed overall, and it was approved at state level by a healthy margin. The right to hunt and fish was a solid win.

[Frau Edith Steingehirn]

Porch sez: "Dozens of Beto signs around my neighborhood disappeared overnight."

Bah! Fair weather supporters. One house in our 'Cleoville neighborhood *still* has a Hillary! sign out front. Heh...even the local idiots are sustainable.

I'll check out the Beto signs on the next street.

[derwill]

Maybe Trump will enact Kim Kardashian’s prison reform. He seems to be seriously considering it. And if it takes an act of Congress would the Dems dare vote against it?

[Dave (in MA)]

I am not Dave Seville, though there are a lot of chipmunks in my yard.

[jimmyk on iPhone]

If you go back far enough on JOM he’s also Barney Frank.

[pj]

Do they deliver votes by pack mule in Montana? How can they still be at 87.7% reporting?

[Kevlar Kid]

Haven't done a deep dive on the FL Felon voting amendment. So my questions come from lack of intel.

1. All formerly incarcerated felons, who have completed their obligations post-release, are reinstated automatically to vote in federal elections. So why was there need for this amendment?

2. Is the intent to allow incarcerated felons to vote without any post-release completion requirements for reinstatement?

What's next, employers cannot ask on apps "Have you ever been convicted of a felony?"

oh boy.

So 2 million former felons live in FL and dint complete their requirements as prescribed by law--- and this is some kind of amnesty amendment?

double oh boy.

pass laws then ignore them. yeah, that works. NOT!

[Frau Edith Steingehirn]

derwill's "I also would be more upset at losing the House if they had actually done a damn thing these last two years."

I agree. They should be made to feel the blame. What could they are accomplished in the past two years?

[hrtshpdbox]

and that makes Florida more a Red state how?

That made Florida a state out of step with the rest of the nation which, entirely incidentally, comprises states both red and blue.

[Porchlight]

Thanks OL.

If you go back far enough on JOM he’s also Barney Frank.

Oh wow, I do remember that. Was that the name right before Ignatz or was there another?

[Kevlar Kid]

oh okay...FL is one of 3 states that dint have "process for restoring voting rights". so the story is being misreported as an aggrieved disenfrachised victims issue.

all right. thanks!

[Kevlar Kid]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLvinnnnN!

[matt - deplore me if you must]

Most felons aren't that smart or that motivated. The ones who are truly rehabilitated are often born agains. And 2,000,000 felons is a lot, even for FLA. So that idiot transposed the Florida vote into a national trend. Ain't happening.

Electing Newsom may, I think, begin the shakeup California needs. He is so completely incompetent that, combined with the crazies in the legislature the state is heading for a reckoning. That pension bomb is still out there and California cannot print its own money, so they will be f'd by the markets.

The Libs need a swift hard dose of reality.