How The Democrats Can Win The White House In 2020 (And Why They Won't)

Frank Bruni jumped the gun by writing in the 2020 Presidential prospects a few days before the midterms. He offers some sensible advice from both Republican and Democratic strategists on how to unseat Trump. The Dem base can't and won't heed it, but here we go:

And this time around, assuming that nothing interrupts the president’s bid for a second term, there will be a host of additional questions and concerns. They’re peculiar to his intentionally abrasive personality, his deliberately provocative tactics and his almost mystical domination of the media.

Should his opponent join him in the mud, which is the approach that the lawyer Michael Avenatti not only recommends but models? Is it even possible to avoid such a descent? Eric Holder and Hillary Clinton apparently think not, to judge by recent public comments of theirs (“When they go low, we kick ’em,” Holder said).

But plenty of other prominent Democrats told me that the smartest strategy is to float above the muck, because campaigns are about contrasts and many Americans are desperate for something cleaner and calmer.

“There are a lot of people who are exhausted by the daily rancor that Trump has treated the country to and by this kind of tribal politics,” said David Axelrod, an architect of Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns.

Yeah, but the crazies are just warming up. Lots of virtue left to signal!

Some Democrats even believe that an eloquent summons to civility and exhortation to move beyond rank partisanship could be the winning message, because Americans increasingly grasp the peril that we’re in — the Pittsburgh synagogue massacre was only the latest bloody illustration — and because Trump can’t ever claim to be an agent of healing.

“It’s about confronting him where he’s weakest,” said Bob Kerrey, the former senator and former Nebraska governor. “You have to say to the audience: This country is dangerously divided and it’s on the edge of something awful.”

Kerrey said that in a perfect world, a Democratic candidate would go even further than that in the primary and tell voters: “You’re going to get angry at me, because I’m going to embrace a Republican idea if it feels good. Don’t expect me to be 100 percent — 100 percent may make you happy, but it won’t pull this country together.”

I love the sound of that. I also suspect it’s a doomed fantasy.

It is a mostly-doomed fantasy. Ardent lefties loath Trump both because of his persona and his current embrace of fairly mainstream Republican positions on taxes, regulation, defense, guns and abortion. There are plenty of conservatives and centrists who oppose the Trump persona but are OK with a lot of his positions. Asking them to reject both the positions and the persona was too much in 2016 (eg, evangelicals and Gorsuch/Kavanaugh) and probably will be so again in 2020. But the base Dems will persist!

However, in a crowded field it is possible that while Spartacus et al split the Sanders wing a centrist could sneak past the Democrat base and into the White House.

A second major challenge is this - Democrats need to understand and - dare we say it - have a bit of respect for trump voters and their concerns:

And it better not sneer at Trump and condescend to his supporters. No baskets, please, and no deplorables. Midwesterners who voted for him won’t be lured back into the Democratic fold if they’re made to feel ashamed about their decision and told that they were duped.

“That would be fatal,” said Beth Myers, a prominent Republican consultant and longtime senior adviser to Mitt Romney. She wasn’t speaking as someone who wanted a strategy to dislodge Trump; she was just sizing up the situation.

She noted that most of the Democrats signaling possible candidacies “are from blue states and don’t really understand the Trump phenomenon — and that is a disadvantage. In my little liberal Democratic world in Massachusetts, people seriously can’t comprehend how this guy got elected president. But when you travel around the country, it’s very clear.”

Her liberal friends, she added, will ask her, “How can we have let this happen?” And she has to explain to them that “there are a lot of people in the country who have views different from you. This is their guy. And you need to understand that before you run someone against him. Hillary Clinton couldn’t even understand how this guy could be considered. That was a huge problem for her.”

Axelrod made the same general point to me, and I think it’s the crucial counsel. “If Democrats are going to win in 2020, it can’t be with the careless presumption that everyone who voted for Trump is a toothless, ignorant racist,” he said, adding that voters who were still reeling from the 2008 financial collapse and voters disgusted by the paralysis on Capitol Hill “viewed Trump as the kick in the ass that Washington needed. There has to be room for these voters, but if they’re shunned and belittled for having supported him in the first place, they will just be driven further into his column.”

Cue the Mission Impossible soundtrack. The many virtues of the Democratic base voters won't signal themselves, so Deplorable we are and Deplorables we will be. "Stop hating, you racist misogynistic, transphobic, homophobic, Islamaphobic hate-filled haters" will be the key Democratic message from their 'woke' base.

Bruni also identifies another major obstacle:

Standing out will require one nonnegotiable quality: the vividness to loosen Trump’s stranglehold on the media. To that end, any serious challenger has to figure out how to tell his or her story in a riveting way.

Trumps ownership of the media and ability to control news cycles makes the media adoration of Obama look like "Barry who?" coverage. Any Democrat to gain early momentum will get a media shoulder ride as the Next Great Savior, but that is a tough role to fill.

I did want to add this -: on Fox last night a panelist mentioned that the crazies had taken over the Democratic Party. That drew a sharp rebuke from (IIRC) Chris Wallace, who noted the Dems were winning House races with veterans, businessman, and centrists galore. To that end, let me pull this from the NY Times recap of the evening. First, on Pelosi:

But at a meeting of Democratic donors and strategists earlier on Tuesday, [Pelosi] signaled there were lines she would not cross next year. Attempting to impeach Mr. Trump, she said, was not on the agenda.

Nor should it be:

The Democrats’ broad gains in the House, and their capture of several powerful governorships, in many cases represented a vindication of the party’s more moderate wing. The candidates who delivered the House majority largely hailed from the political center, running on clean-government themes and promises of incremental improvement to the health care system rather than transformational social change.

A non-crazy Democrat ought to have a fighting chance against Trump even though Trump may well be running as a peace and prosperity incumbent. But I don't think "non-crazy" will describe the eventual nominee.

Comments

[henry]

Keep avoiding the issue hrt, the Dems wont in 2020 as nutzo of the month cruises to the White House.

[derwill]

The Dems really, really, really wanted Beto, Gillum, and Grady to win.

Also with our nice majority in the Senate, the Supreme Court is now lost to them should Trump get another vacancy to fill.

Neither side got all of what they wanted most last night.

[Porchlight]

Link to Trump presser:

https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/9v0q6s/president_trump_hosts_a_postmidterms_press/

Speaking now.

[hrtshpdbox]

all right. thanks!

I think the link I included is a lot more descriptive than however I worded it. Here it is again:

https://www.nonprofitvote.org/voting-in-your-state/special-circumstances/voting-as-an-ex-offender/

[Frau Indianerherz]

Barney Fwank?

[Porchlight]

DeSantis will appoint three FL Supreme Court justices if I'm reading correctly.

[anonamom]

Gosh, do I hope the NPR commentators I was listening to while shopping are hearing the president, because they didn't mention ANY of this....

[hrtshpdbox]

all right. thanks!

I think the link I included is a lot more descriptive than however I worded it. Here it is again:
https://www.nonprofitvote.org/voting-in-your-state/special-circumstances/voting-as-an-ex-offender/

[JMHanes]

I love that Democrats suddenly think they're going to have a free hand to haul DJT into Congress and dig into his every closet!

President gets subpoena, "Hang on a sec, let me just check with the Supremes....."

Sessions departs DoJ, President appears in Rose Garden to introduce newly appointed Atty General, Devin Nunes.

[Porchlight]

Richard Baris, who does the People's Pundit polls, suggests McCain is the true author of the House loss because of Obamacare. Said it specifically did in Pete Sessions.

https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1060208307674202114

I think the GOP retirements are also huge but those two are probably interconnected. Too many GOPe who didn't want to fight.

[Frau Indianerherz]

matt - even our McClatchy rag endorsed Cox for governor! The entire state is being directed from feces-festooned Frisco. Gaia help us.

[Bernardi Dr la paz]

Yes that would be good kobach is perhaps too in your face a pick.

Barris was off in the early projections.

[jimmyk]

The light is on but nobody's home:

https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2018/11/07/civics-fail-joy-behar-blames-gerrymandering-for-dem-losses-in-the-senate-video/

[henry]

Trump, it's easier now because we can negotiate with the Democrats. IFHTP

[Porchlight]

Yeah, narciso, but thankfully he and the other guys were on the money in FL.

Polling will continue to be very confusing and contradictory in future cycles. I think it is totally broken, which is why I don't really trust any polling analysis anymore, even from people like Baris who are smart and make sense.

[Tom Maguire]

OK, new thread.

[henry]

"we'll send it to the Senate and get 100% Dems, and some Reps... beautiful bipartisanship."
This is as bad as it gets.

[Dave (in MA)]

the NPR commentators I was listening to

I think I've identified your problem.

[Porchlight]

LOL, Dave (in MA).

[I think that's about the hundredth time I've typed that.]

[Jane]

The reason restoring felon's rights in FL is an issue, is because the democrats will romance them and pay them off. We don't have a lot of white collar criminals down here.

[Extraneus]

How about owning guns?

Why not for non-violent felons? I can see restricting violent felons, but why Paul Manafort?

[Jane]

Trump hands Jim Acosta his ass.

[Old Lurker]

Iggy went right from Barney to Iggy but he cannot hide. :-)

[Old Lurker]

JMH "I was shocked to discover that my county is not as reliably Republican as I thought it was."

JMH, I think the Democrat - Republican formulation went by the boards once we discovered that they were really just the Uniparty, pretending all the while to be simply the loyal opposition.

So I think the surprise you feel is how many of our neighbors really just do not want the type of country we inherited from our parents. We are now divided between one bell curve plainly centered on Socialism, and another bell curve centered on the ideals of the Founders, more or less.

[Texas Liberty Gal]

Thx jimmyk. I’ll try to remember that in the future

[Texas Liberty Gal]

Porch-Thx for sharing that re: MN. Nice to know not all is lost

[Robin, well that was fun]

How I feel about these midterms IS NOTHING compared to how I felt when Obama was re-elected in 2012 and we failed to capture the senate. We survived, but that was awful.

We all knew that it was going to be an uphill battle to hang on to the House. I’m thrilled that we expanded our lead in the Senate, and I’m relieved to hear Pelosi paying lip service to campaign finance reform as a first task and cleaning up the swamp. Democrats, some of them anyway, got the message. That’s good for the country.

In some ways I think this is probably a relief for Trump. He was clearly frustrated by his own party sitting around saying “this is not who we are” rather than getting things done - passing legislation over and over and sending it to the senate and illuminating the crap going on there. Now he’s free to make deals, have conversations, and weigh all options. It is very foolish to think that he won’t be sitting down with Pelosi to tell her exactly what he has on her swampmates.

Is it 4d chess? Hell no. It’s high stakes poker and Trump is all in.

Now back to catch up.

[Greg Q]

However, in a crowded field it is possible that while Spartacus et al split the Sanders wing a centrist could sneak past the Democrat base and into the White House.

Possibly

But what's more likely is that Trump will decide which Democrat he wants to compete against, and start tweeting against that one in late 2019

That one "fights back", all the crazies converge, and Trump has his opponent.

Didn't work well for Hillary. But it worked great for McCaskill in 2012

[Robin, why do I have to sign in again]

JMHanes,

I think you are exactly right about Trump going after minorities for votes. This was a strategy all along.

[Another Bob]

Ig Seville, I stand with TK and OL's 11:30 AM.

And since it was my comment that started that chain, I'll add two things:

1. Acknowledging that you have a problem is a long-ass way from saying you've given up on it. Identifying the cause is step one to fixing it. Having the house flipped was a slow-speed own goal by Team R, maybe with some Team Trump contribution.

2. We keep hearing from the "optimists" that the people will rise up and put an end to the nonsense, and that Team R pols will start acting toward the Ds exactly like Team D pols acted toward the Rs, Trump will just give 'em all the finger like Obama, etc. etc.

Same question as TK: When do we actually start seeing this happen? Because until we do, the progs just keep ratcheting the country left. Want s little proof? Did you hear any R talk about the "preexisting conditions" red-herring in any way that could be distinguished from Pelosi eight years ago?

[Another Bob]

"Trump hands Jim Acosta his ass."

Ooooh... like the sound of that.

Cliffs Notes, Jane?

[maryrose]

Rosie onhis way to the WH.
Turn over all your Mueller crap.
There is a new sheriff in town.