Memeorandum


Powered by TypePad

« Christmas Eve Open Thread | Main | The Grinch Who Tweeted Away Christmas »

December 24, 2018

Comments

Narciso79

This appears more like the 2011 downturn than the one in 2008, or even the one in 2000, there isn't one dominant inflated sector this time, well within reason.

Narciso79

It used to be Israel targeted bases in Lebanon, but this conflict has expanded the perimeter.

jim nj

Ditto. Israel and Saudi Arabia, despite their differences in the past, are what I would call "natural" allies now.

I hope the attack on Hezbollah leaders was effective.

SDF is still fighting ISIS in Deir al-Zour and reportedly killing hundreds of them with tactics including heavy air strikes. The Syrian army is moving into the area, which is also the area where the Russian mercenaries were obliterated.

I can see the SDF ceding the area, which includes oil fields, to the Syrian army and retiring from the area.

I can also see the SDF ceding Manbij to the Syrian army, rather than the Turkish backed Syrians. That serves both parties, I think. The Syrian army is opposed to the Turkish backed Syrian forces more than towards the SDF.

If I was Assad I would see Turkey and its' Syrian lackeys as more of a threat than the SDF.

The SDF should finish off offensive operations, regroup and go into defensive positions to consolidate its' gains.

While the SDF is supposedly losing US support I think they have enough support of others to hold what they have.

jim nj

It's been 18 years since I had a Quotron in front of me and could monitor the stock market more closely.

It seems to me that the market recognized that they were in a new environment with the election of Trump. Decreased corporate taxes, fewer regulations and a good deal on repatriating foreign funds.

So the market went up. Did it go up so much that it needed a 10% correction, probably.

But not definitely. So why a 20% decline, a bear market, it doesn't make sense to me.

The trade wars have been ongoing for some time, rule that out.

The FED? Many of us worry they are moving too fast on more than one front. Easy money needed to end. No more ZIRP.

Inflation? Have you seen how low petroleum prices are going? That's usually one of the main inflationary pressures, so expect to see inflation moderate.

FAANG stocks, yes they deserve a beat down. We're seeing just how biased and un-American their values are.

Years ago you would look at the Transportation Index to see how the economy was doing. If less was being shipped turning the index down it was a leading indicator that less was being bought. Very simple, less shipped, less available to be bought, meaning people were buying less, ergo, any firm with excess inventory was going to take a hit.

Only thing I see is that investors decided, to some extent, that the Trump era was over with a democratic majority in the House.

anonamom

Back to reality:

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2018/12/22/john_huber_vanishing_savior_for_gop.html

clarice

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/12/oleg_atbashians_emhotel_ussrem.html

James D.

Happy Boxing Day!

MissMarple2


Charles V Payne
ā€¸Verified account @cvpayne
3m3 minutes ago

The Federal Reserve is being cheered by some for slowing down the economy because Main Street is getting too healthy. Created by Big Banks to protect the uber wealthy the Fed used trillions to save banks so this current path of destruction will help push America toward socialism.

MissMarple2

ChiTowb Lurker tells me that the Fed is hurting people like Tom Steyer, which is good. Not Main Street.

He will send me some info later, so I am going to ignore all of the Federal Reserve stories for a bit.

pagar

Nice Article, Clarice!

The mistake is the voters of New York electing this idiot ,IMO.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/12/cashrich_schumer_gets_caught_exploiting_the_interns.html

"Here's the kicker: It's not like he doesn't have money to pay interns. Actually, he does, according to the New York Post - a $65,000 congressionally appropriated pot, for his particular office, for just that. Then he went and decided it would be better to get them for free, and, I suppose, use the money some other way, some pleasant way for him, I'm sure."

Like all Democrats, ripping off everyone else.

MissMarple2

https://legalinsurrection.com/2018/12/saudi-arabia-and-uae-sending-troops-to-help-kurds-in-syria/

Tom Bowler

Jim nj, I agree that the Fed rate hikes, with the promise for more in the future, plus Democratic takeover of the House are the likely triggers for the market meltdown. But I wonder if the stock market is just settling down to where it ought to be.

I read somewhere that Quantitative Easing was intended to trigger "asset inflation," but I thought the assets the Fed was trying to inflate were houses. The 2007 financial crisis was all about the value, or lack thereof, of collateral - houses backed up mortgage loans while securitized mortgages often served as collateral in securities lending and as capitalization for brokerage firms.

But instead of shoring up houses, the Fed's easy money went into the stock market driving equity prices up. Early in the Obama administration, just as I was worried about currency inflation and thinking I should swing my 401K towards bond funds, equities went crazy. So I stuck with aggressive growth equities.

And then when Trump came along with tax cuts and deregulation, the market really took off. Which leads me to wonder, how does one know when a stock price accurately reflects the value of a company? The fluctuations in stock prices seemed to be driven by investors' fears or exuberance, and not necessarily tethered to actual value of the companies.

I always thought that somewhere along the line stock prices had to come into alignment with the actual values of the issuing companies. I suppose if we see a rash of hostile takeovers we can deduce that stock prices are badly out of alignment on the low side.

On the other hand, have we just witnessed the bursting of an equity bubble? People investing on margin are getting killed right now, for sure, but short sellers ought to be having a field day.

But do you expect this stock market dip to translate into an economic slowdown? How would that work?

Disclosure: I'm an IT guy, not a financial guy. My expertise is toward COBOL rather than securities analysis.

henry

new

Jim,SunnyvaleCA,USA

TM was up early, then?

pagar

Best video ever.

https://www.facebook.com/ElectTrump2020/videos/937237666425671/

The comments to this entry are closed.

Wilson/Plame