Theresa May, Or She May Not

Brit PM Theresa May bails out on a Parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal. What next? Who knows!

DEAD POOL UPDATE: it seems like only a week ago we were contemplating the G-20 meeting in Paris, but really it was a week and a half. I can't handicap all twenty of these world leaders, but among Merkel, Macron, May and Trump, Merkel was already headed out the door (as of 2021) at the meeting. But she clings to power today, as do the other three leaders in the Dead Pool.

So who will be the first among this group (or the larger G-20) to be shown the door? Theresa May virtually any day? Likely! Macron next spring or sooner? Not so fast - as President of France (NOT Prime Minister) he was elected to serve a five year term in 2017. The Assembly would normally serve until then as well. So barring a complete collapse of the governing structure, Macron should be able to stay until 2022, even if events force him to replace his current PM leading a new coalition.

Trump may be impeached by House Democrats for having a bad comb-over but nothing revealed so far suggests there will be 67 votes in the Senate for removal. OTOH, unless re-elected Jan 20, 2021 is his end date.

So who lasts the longest? It seems weird that Macron, who may be the least popular of the four and with a country beset by riots, is most likely to be in office in 2022. PredictIt bettors say May is the next European leader to go (69% probability) followed by Macron (20%).

OK, my calls: May is the next to go, Trump will outlast the other three.

Comments

[Extraneus]

Supreme Court Takes Case to Reconsider Major Federal Powers Doctrine

WASHINGTON, DC – The Supreme Court on Monday took a case that could overrule Auer deference, a doctrine under which courts defer to federal agencies regarding the scope of their regulatory powers, a case with major implications for the powers of the federal government.

James Kisor is a Marine veteran who suffers from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). He sought retroactive benefits for his PTSD, which he acquired during the Vietnam War.

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) declined to award him retroactive benefits. The VA invoked Auer v. Robbins (1997), interpreting the VA’s regulations on granting benefits to give VA bureaucrats the flexibility to deny Kisar PTSD benefits. The lower courts deferred to the VA’s interpretation as required under Auer deference.

Conservatives have long criticized Auer deference. That case was originally written by Justice Antonin Scalia, a stalwart conservative, but he quickly came to realize his mistake and began insisting that the Supreme Court overrule this deference doctrine.

Kavanaugh time.

[MissMarple2]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/12/11/church-england-offer-baptism-style-services-transgender-people/?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1544539886

[Old Lurker]

Ext "Kavanaugh time."

Yep.

Then we will know.

[Captain Hate]

What would we do without these sciency experts?

https://mobile.twitter.com/ComradeArthur/status/1072530380522184705

[henry]

OL, won't matter. Roberts will call it a tax.

[MissMarple2]

rse,

You especially might find this interesting:

http://saudigazette.com.sa/article/549759/SAUDI-ARABIA/School-curricula-to-include-philosophy-critical-thinking

It seems to me while our kids are being brainwashed, the Saudis have decided to go in the other direction.

[MissMarple2]

From a WSJ reporter:

Vivian Salama
@vmsalama
Incredible argument unfolding now in front of the press between trump, Pelosi and Schumer over votes for border security. Pelosi keeps asking not to discuss it in front of the press.

=============================

When I find the video I will post it.

[sbwaters]

MM, ... so long as “critical thinking” is analytical thinking and not thinking through the approved educational lens.

[henry]

President Donald Trump's meeting with Democratic congressional leaders Tuesday turned into an argument before it really began, as the president said he would be "proud" to shut down parts of the government over his proposed border wall.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/11/trump-meets-with-pelosi-and-schumer-on-border-wall-and-government-shutdown.html

[Extraneus]

Democrat Ilhan Omar: House Dems ‘Getting Closer Every Single Day’ to Starting Impeachment Proceedings

Duh.

[cathyf]

We are down to no narcotics for all kinds of procedures. (Not yours, yet---but way less than we used to use.)

Yes, it does matter how much narcs you get in the OR as to whether you even need any afterwards.

I'm interested in learning more about narcotic-free pain relief. After my c-section they gave me what they claimed was morphine, and it was the most horrible experience I've ever had. They gave me like 8 hours of pitocin on the freshly-sutured uterus. (I've always wondered if that got damaged somehow to produce the 48 hours of non-progressing back labor with the VBAC 4 years later, but I digress.) The "morphine" intensified the pain incredibly, as well as making me too stupid to defend myself. I'm still scared of needing surgery in the future -- given a choice between repeating the morphine experience and blowing my brains out, I'll take suicide. (And, practically speaking, if I'm just going to kill myself, no need to waste the time and money on the surgery.)

[MissMarple2]

The Daily Caller Retweeted
Saagar Enjeti
Saagar Enjeti
@esaagar
·
3m
Trump when Nancy Pelosi protests the presence of camera's in the Oval Office: "Its called transparency Nancy"

[MissMarple2]

Katie Pavlich
@KatiePavlich
·
10m
Well look at that, Nancy Pelosi doesn't like having to negotiate publicly and transparently in front of the entire country.

[Captain Hate]

Trump just said he'll shut the government down if there's no wall and take the blame.

[henry]

How to launch impeachment asap.

[MissMarple2]

Dr. Cary S
Dr. Cary S
@carysimond
Wow! (Thanks Deb)! Barron Trump just became a Chess Grand Master)! What a neat young man! His parents must be very proud! We Americans have the Best 1st Family ever!!!!!!!!

[henry]

This photo of Trump and Schumer is priceless:

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1072544356278657024

[Another Bob]

So in these days of extremism everywhere and at all times, may we presume that “impeach” will be the democrat default response every time Trump refuses to kowtow?

[henry]

may we presume that “impeach” will be the democrat default response every time Trump refuses to kowtow?

it has nothing to do with anything Trump does... it is for cameras and fundraising.

[sbwaters]

cathyf, between my wife and myself competing to discard body parts, we have come to appreciate that anesthetics used today are much much better should surgery be necessary.

As far as pain management, we have learned that you have to have a patient advocate who understands that some meds work for some surgeries and pain but not for others and who is willing to work with the hospital to find the correct tool.

One med that worked for one surgery decidedly did not work for another, and we had to change one that resulted in hallucinations.

[Old Lurker]

Why are there no R leaders in that meeting?

Are they chopped liver?

[henry]

The video... Trump Schumer, Pelosi

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/11/trump-meets-with-pelosi-and-schumer-on-border-wall-and-government-shutdown.html

[clarice]

Trouble signing in twice today.
MM, that chess master thing is fake,

[Captain Hate]

Why are there no R leaders in that meeting?

Are they chopped liver?

Hopefully Ryan is chopped Khashoggi.

[henry]

vid might work better from the tweet:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/11/trump-meets-with-pelosi-and-schumer-on-border-wall-and-government-shutdown.html

[henry]

https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1072546369951465472

[GUS]

Cats!!! Do you like chianti and fauva beans???

[clarice]

I knew it, Gus!

[MissMarple2]

clarice,

Sorry. I should have researched it before I grabbed it.

henry,

We need to keep looking. CNBC cut out all of the good parts on that video.

[henry]

Miss M, that figures.

[Old Lurker]

That chess story has been around for jokes on Trump for several years.

[Narciso79]

Yes that's ridiculous:

http://thefederalist.com/2018/12/11/media-conventional-wisdom-on-russia-probe-is-uninformed-and-idiotic/#.XA_d3BnpFJw.twitter

[Dave (in MA)]

Zuckerborg put an ad on my wall pimping an "RBG action figure". You know, in my day, when a company would run an ad in the paper, they wouldn't also include comments making fun of their product or service underneath it.

[Narciso79]

Does the stock market have any relation to actual economic conditions

[henry]

Yep. Fry that jerk:

http://thefederalist.com/2018/12/11/making-a-murderers-steven-avery-is-still-guilty-as-hell/#.XA_-F4CDXd8.twitter

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

RBG action figure;
Pull its string and it slumps forward and starts snoring.

[Another Bob]

Narc, IMO no, not anymore.

[Narciso79]

So if earnings are reasonably accurate (big caveat) what is the problem?

[Old Lurker]

And in my opinion it also does not even serve as a reliable measure of the "real value" of a stock.

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

--Does the stock market have any relation to actual economic conditions.--

Sure it does. Note where it was in 2009.
However "don't fight the Fed" is rather faithfully followed and the Fed is currently raising interest rates. So regardless of a trailing indicator like employment, overhanging debt, the length of this business cycle, yields and the Fed, among many other indicators, are signaling large flashing red lights.

[Narciso79]

The market adjusted down to two standard deviations of thr loss.

[MissMarple2]

Old Lurker,

Well I hadn't seen it. I also didn't check and I also apologized.

[Another Bob]

There have been so many derivative instruments invented to make money off a stock value that the actual stock price is almost meaningless.except to the suckers like me who buy a mutual fund.

I also think big players have found ways to manipulate markets at a national level at little actual cost to them.

/tinfoil hat

[Old Lurker]

Narc, the problem is that "value" is the net present value of the cash the stock buyer can expect over the very long term from holding that share. That in turn introduces guesses about not just the earnings of the next quarter but many quarters in the future, it introduces guesses about future taxation of the company and the owner, it introduces guesses about each individuals "investment horizon" and then how each will estimate the "terminal value", and then of course it introduces guesses about the appropriate discount rate to use...and that pulls in all sorts of variables including emotions, hopes and fears.

Then, the reality is that the "market" includes value investors who think like the above, it includes hot money investors who are just parking cash, it includes mega-funds under pressure to park gazillions of dollars, it includes investors who are betting on declines as much as increases, and it includes the plain fact that some investors have more information than others.

And then, all investors are not Americans using dollars to buy and sell, and that takes all of the above and makes it REALLY complicated.

[Jane]

It was 42 this morning in Fl. If your blood is thin that is like -42 degrees up north. I was at the poopy park at 5:15 freezing. Later at the hospital they gave me a rubber tube which blew heat under the covers while I was waiting for surgery.

Mine was for a cyst in my sinuses about the size of a quarter, which they took out of my nose. No idea yet what was in it, but I have a bandages all over my nose which make me look like Santa with an upward moustache - among other things. Thank God they can get you to pass out.

Unlike James I am not allowed to lay down til later. At some point headaches are expected to begin. Glad it's over.

[Narciso79]

So it's like divining or other mystical arts.

[Jane]

I got home in time to see the Pelosi Schumer v Trump presser. Or at least some of it. I found it hysterical.

[henry]

hope you heal quickly Jane!

[Old Lurker]

"So it's like divining or other mystical arts."

Zackly.

[Narciso79]

Yikes Jane hope you feel better.

[daddy]

Good Morning.

If Google tracks users 14,000 times a day then where the hell is the missing Malaysian Airliner?

[Narciso79]

The quantum realm obviously.

[Threadkiller]

Trump, Pelosi, Schumer:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AZtCfBR8ZZQ

[Rocco]

The day Mueller allegedly interviewed for the FBI Directors job, May 16, 2017, was the same day Rosenstein offered to wear a wire.

[jimmyk]

I guess stories like this are considered "dog bites man" by the NYT (or other MSM).

Seven Wounded, One Seriously, in Shooting Attack Near West Bank Settlement

One of the wounded was a 21-year-old pregnant woman. The baby had to be delivered prematurely and is in critical condition. As far as I can tell, this story has not been reported in the US media, which is preoccupied with hysteria over Trump "crimes."

[daddy]

Church of England to offer baptism-style services to transgender people to celebrate their new identity for first time

Only for the first time?

I'm outraged. Where's the compassion for folks who swap back and want to be baptized a 2nd time? Why would the Church of England be so damned heartless as to not give Baptisms a second time, after transgenders realize they liked it better the way they were previous and want to get Baptized as they reverses their gender a 2nd time.

And what about 3 times a charm?

Man, has that Church lost it's way or what?

[Marlene]

Feel better Jane! Do you need anything?

[jimmyk]

As iggy's post suggests, the market is not primarily looking at current (or recent) conditions, but rather at the future, which means realistically the next few years. I know Chitown disagrees, but I think the concern is that the Fed will overreact to lagging indicators like 3.7% unemployment, and in 2019 push rates higher than is warranted. Why? Because that's what they did in 2000 and 2006-7. International issues (China, UK, France) also factor in. If Trump manages to make a deal with China to stave off a tariff war, the market will jump 2-3%.

[jimmyk]

And best wishes to James D and Jane for speedy recoveries, and to momto2 for her husband.

[MissMarple2]

Hey, Threadkiller,

Thanks for finding the unedited video!

I assume CNN didn't edit it because they think it hurts the President, but in my opinion it makes Pelosi and Schumer look like weasels.

[clarice]

Speedy recovery, Jane.
jimmyk I read about that attack yesterday--It was a miracle neither the mother or baby were killed although the baby is in critical condition because it was born too early by C Section.

[Pinandpuller]

henry

Your comment above about cameras and fundraising brought to mind Mel Gibson's Martin Riggs in Lethal Weapon. Is he acting or is he really suicidal?

I can't yet find a particular parody but this one from MAD TV has some good impressions with a "trigger" warning:

https://youtu.be/WpB31BlLbs0

[Porchlight]

How great is Trump? Pelosi and Schumer obviously planned to claim he said all kinds of crap in their private meeting that he never said. So he brings the cameras in.

[Old Lurker]

Lots of clips for the MSM to slice and dice to make Trump look bad.

Mission accomplished.

[daddy]

One America news reports that Lawmakers are voting today on the important decision of whether to make G H W Bush’s boyhood home a National Monument.

[Dave (in MA)]

Yike!

Get better, Jane.

[Account Deleted]

Narciso:

Scare up a copy of "Mass Psychology" by James Dines. An accurate profile of the US exchanges and indices: "a mass encephalogram". He's our go to on all investing matters.

[Account Deleted]

Happy healing, Jane!

[henry]

Pin, the Dems sure seem that way at times. :)

[Account Deleted]

"i could get it passed in the House in 2 seconds, Nancy. but we'd need 10 Democrat votes to get it passed in the Senate."

POTUS has this street corner way of letting his opponent know what's true and what's true.

i laughed out loud when El Rushbo played that clip.

Pelosi is a jackwagon.

[GUS]

What is a CNN?

[MissMarple2]

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
23m
James Comey just totally exposed his partisan stance by urging his fellow Democrats to take back the White House in 2020. In other words, he is and has been a Democrat. Comey had no right heading the FBI at any time, but especially after his mind exploded!

[Account Deleted]

and in other news, looks like veritas trumps gravitas:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/dec/10/project-veritas-case-judge-patti-b-staris-rules-am/

[MissMarple2]

Donald J. Trump
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
20m
“I don’t care what you think of the President...it cannot bleed over to the FBI...Comey is confirming there is bias in the FBI...”
-Chris Swecker

[Pinandpuller]

Barron Trump Chess Master:

4D or it didn't happen.

[Tom R]

Tracybeanz with some pretty good analysis of the Comey testimony.

https://twitter.com/tracybeanz/status/1072517496278843397?s=21

Apparently Comey claimed he doesn’t know Mueller very well. Wasn’t someone here claiming several months back that Mueller and Comey were close friends or something to that effect?

[GUS]

Hey Pin!!! That 4-D is right on track.

[henry]

The White House @WhiteHouse
2m

Democrats have made it clear that they would rather keep the U.S. border open to illegal immigrants than keep the government open to serve American citizens.

Enough is enough. It's time to make a deal for real border security.

[Account Deleted]

Trump triggers the Yellow Vest mooment. Deplorables next?

Deplorables Reach Breaking Point Again?

[Pinandpuller]

Is this from The Office of The Speaker Elect?

You know, GUS pointed out that the WI legislature and lame duck Walker actually got shit done on the way out that made Dems scream in pain and anger.

Our national republicans for the most part never act like winners or play till the buzzer sounds.

I watched the Marquette game with GUS and while the free throw percentage was terrible at least they were trying to score. Unless they were republican point shavers.

[daddy]

--Does the stock market have any relation to actual economic conditions.--

Dow just went positive. Beats me why.

[Pinandpuller]

Republicans need a Kruschev who will metaphorically machine gun cowards who turn and run from the front lines. But that will never happen.

[Account Deleted]

In celebration of Pin's Grand Journey:

Bright Moments- Rashaan Roland Kirk

[henry]

China agreed to reduce tariffs on U.S. autos to 15%, down from 40% currently, during a phone call with U.S. officials that opened the latest round of trade talks aimed at settling a trade dispute festering between the world’s two largest economic powers.

https://twitter.com/MarketWatch/status/1072574300023083008

[Account Deleted]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/10/clean-water-rollback-epas-new-rule-expected-revise-waters-us/2269060002/

[GUS]

Kev, hanging with PIN, showing him Milwaukee, going down to Henry's compound, and then back to the GUS ESTATE in OCONOMOWOC, it was as if I'd known Pin forever. We laughed, drank beer, swore a lot and laughed some more. Then there was music.
I think we fed him pretty well too.

[Account Deleted]

Eat it, Kamala Harris.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/dec/10/immigrants-must-prove-they-arent-public-burden-und/

[Pinandpuller]

In America's case we have an all volunteer legislature so there's no excuse for failure after failure other than there's almost no such thing as attrition.

[Jane]

I feel fine guys, altho I've been told by more than one person that I look like Hitler! I guess that means I can demand stuff!

[Account Deleted]

GUS-- if there werent no cussin then i dont wanna know bout nuthin else. :D Kussin Kev

[Ignatz Ratzkiwatzki]

The market is not only reacting to future projections, it is doing so from an artificially astronomical height that was also manufactured by the Fed and its insane monetary policies of the last few years/decades.
The mantra of "don't fight the Fed" is multiplied exponentially when it is withdrawing from ten years of mainlining free money designed inevitably to inflate asset bubbles.
Rational markets with transparent price discovery decline and advance. Irrational, speculative bubbles created by irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies end with a bang not a whimper.

[henry]

Jane, don't send anyone to the showers... they might misinterpret that.

[Account Deleted]

GUS-- you might not recall my first days here. when hearing henry say he was in WI, i replied that i only knew one person from WI (outside of Madison)--- and that individual was from OCONOMOWOC.

i even spelled it right. henry replied: "GUS is from OCONOMOWOC."

and it was on, brother!

[GUS]

So Jane actually IZZZ A White Nationalist/White Supremecist.

RODHAM WAS RIGHT!!!

[Dave (in MA)]

elosi is a jackwagon.

Jillwagon.

[Dave (in MA)]

snáithe nua

[Jim Eagle]

KK,

I saw Roland Kirk live with the Adderly Brothers and Max Roach in NYC at the Village Vanguard. Super moment in my musical life, since I can hardly carry a tune.

Trump is on a roll. They continue to not understand him. I do not understand how the Dems, who has been mingling with for years, have no concept on how to deal with him. Which probably tells a lot about how they have no concept to deal with the everyday problems of most Americans.

Mr. Pin, did you find any open spaces in Wyoming or other places in your travels where we can move this POS called a capital?

The View I am now enjoying but is cold as hell.

[daddy]

How great is Trump? Pelosi and Schumer obviously planned to claim he said all kinds of crap in their private meeting that he never said. So he brings the cameras in.

Porch,

Rush in Hour 3 doing a nice job of pounding this point home over and over again. Said those 2 weasels had planned to come out and spin some BS to the Media about what the Meeting was about, and Trump screwed their plans by leaving the cameras in there to stymy their scheme.

[Jane]

As long as they salute Henry!

[Gentlejim]

I didn’t think it was possible, but I believe Pelosi actually got more stupid as that little powwow went on. I couldn’t watch the whole thing.